Permutation Example: P (Total 9 Spots) 4/36 1/9

Consider 2 dice, and the probability of getting
a total of 9 spots in a single throw of both dice.

Number of possible outcomes = 36
Number of successful outcomes = 4
State Enumeration Method
1+1 1+2 1+3 1+4
2+1 2+2 2+3 2+4
3+1 3+2 3+3 3+4
4+1 4+2 4+3 4+4
5+1 5+2 5+3 5+4
6+1 6+2 6+3 6+4
1+5
2+5
3+5
4+5
5+5
6+5
1+6
2+6
3+6
4+6
5+6
6+6
P(total 9 spots) = 4/36 = 1/9

Note: 7 spots has the highest probability, 1/6 > Lucky Seven
Permutation Example
How many ways can 3 different books A, B, C be arranged on a
shelf, taken two at a time?
State enumeration method:
AB, BA
BC, CB
CA, AC
i.e. 6 arrangements
Number of permutations,
n!
nPr = (n - r)!
3P2
= (3!) / (3-2)! = 6/1 = 6
Alternate Method:
Position 1 : 3 choices, as all books are available
Position 2 : 2 choices, as 1 book has been used to fill Position 1
Total number of arrangements = 3 x 2 = 6
Combination Example
Find the number of combinations of 3 different books A, B, C
taken two at a time.
State enumeration method:
(order of arrangement not
considered)
AB (or BA)
BC
CA
Number of combinations,
n!
nCr =
r! (n - r)!
3C2
= (3!) / [2!(3-2)!]
= 3! / 2! = 6/2 = 3
i.e. 3 arrangements
Example (Combination)
A power plant consists of 7 generator units. In how many ways
can 3 units be found in the failed state?
The different orders in which the units fail are not important in
this case.
Number of combinations,
nCr
n!
r! (n - r)!
7C3
7!
7x6x5
= 3! = 35
3! 4!
Example
A certain item is manufactured at two plants. Plant 1 makes 70% of the
requirement and Plant 2 makes 30%. From Plant 1, 90% meet the required
standard and from Plant 2 only 80%.
What is the probability that an item purchased by a customer meets the
standard? Given that the item is up to standard, what is the probability that
it was made in Plant 2?
Consider, st is the event that an item is up to standard
P1 is the event that the item is made in Plant 1
P2 is the event that the item is made in Plant 2
P(st | P1) = 0.9
P(st | P2) = 0.8
P(P1) = 0.7
P(P2) = 0.3
P(st) = ?
P(st) = P(st | P1) . P(P1) + P(st | P2) . P(P2)

=
0.9 x 0.7 + 0.8 x 0.3 = 0.63 + 0.24 = 0.87
Example continued
Probability that the item was made in Plant 2,
GIVEN that it is up to standard,
P(P2 | st) =
P(P2 st)
=
P(st)
P(st | P2) . P(P2)

P(st)
0.8 x 0.3
0.87
P1
Tree Diagram
P2
0.7
st
= 0.276
0.3
_
st
st
0.9
0.1
0.63
0.07
0.8
0.24
_
st
0.2
0.06
Example:
A generation plant has two 20 MW generating units. The units
always produce rated power unless they fail. The probability of
failure of the 2 units are 0.08 and 0.05 respectively.
What is the probability of getting 40 MW power from the plant?
Probability of getting rated power (20 MW) from unit 1, P(1) = 0.92
Probability of getting rated power (20 MW) from unit 2, P(2) = 0.95
Probability of getting 40 MW power from the plant:
P(1 2) = P(1) x P(2) = 0.874
Example
One card is drawn from a standard pack of 52 playing cards. Let A
be the event that it is a red card and B be the event that it is a court
or face card. What is the probability that both A and B occur?
Since A and B are dependent events, P(A B) = P(A | B) x P(B)
P(B) = 12/52
P(A|B) = 6/12
Given that B has occurred,

the sample space for A is 12 states of which 6 are red cards
Therefore, P(A B) = 6/12 x 12/52 = 6/52
Occurrence of at Least One of Two Events

1) Events are Independent & Mutually Exclusive :
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
kW
100
75
50
0
S
A
Wind Power:
Probability
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
What is the probability of satisfying the

repeater station load?
P(100) = 0.1
60 kW
Repeater Station
P(75) = 0.2
P(windpower > 60) = P(100) + P(75) = 0.3
Occurrence of at Least One of Two Events

2) Events are Independent & Not Mutually Exclusive :
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A).P(B)
S
A
Starter
Motor
P(SM fail) = 0.05
P(batt fail) = 0.1
What is the probability of start failure?

P(start fail) = 0.1 + 0.05 0.1 x 0.05
= 0.145
Example
One card is drawn from a standard pack of 52 playing cards. Let A
be the event that it is a red card and B be the event that it is a court
or face card. What is the probability that the drawn card is red or
face or both?
Since A and B are dependent events,
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A | B).P(B)
P(A) = 26/52
P(B) = 12/52
P(A|B) = 6/12
Given that B has occurred,

the sample space for A is 12 states of which 6 are red cards
Therefore, P(A B) = 26/52 + 12/52 - 6/12 x 12/52 = 32/52
Example:
Probability that a 30 year old man will survive a fixed time period
is 0.995. Insurance company offers a $2000 policy for $20.
What is the companys expected gain?
Outcomes, i:
Gain ($), x:
Probability, f(x):
1 (man lives)
20
0.995
2 (man dies)
-1980
0.005 = 1
Expected Gain, E(x) = xi.pi

i =1
= 20 x 0.995 + (-1980) x 0.005 = $10
Example:
Length of copper bars in m:
5.97 5.97 5.98 5.98
5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99
6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
6.01 6.01 6.01 6.02
What is the standard deviation about the mean length?
Outcomes, i:
Length (m), x:
Probability, f(x):
E(x)= 5.995
1
5.97
0.10
2
5.98
0.15
3
5.99
0.25
4
6.00
0.25
5
6.01
0.15
5.98
5.99
6.00
6.02
6
6.02
0.10 = 1.0
V(x) = [xi - E (x)]2.pi = 0.000205

i =1
(x) = +V(x) = 0.014318

Permutation Example: P (Total 9 Spots) 4/36 1/9

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Consider 2 dice, and the probability of getting

a total of 9 spots in a single throw of both dice.

P(total 9 spots) = 4/36 = 1/9

= (3!) / (3-2)! = 6/1 = 6

P(st) = P(st | P1) . P(P1) + P(st | P2) . P(P2)

P(st | P2) . P(P2)

Given that B has occurred,

Occurrence of at Least One of Two Events

What is the probability of satisfying the

P(windpower > 60) = P(100) + P(75) = 0.3

Occurrence of at Least One of Two Events

What is the probability of start failure?

Given that B has occurred,

Expected Gain, E(x) = xi.pi

= 20 x 0.995 + (-1980) x 0.005 = $10

V(x) = [xi - E (x)]2.pi = 0.000205

(x) = +V(x) = 0.014318

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