Lesson4 Probability of An Event

TAIBAH UNIVERSITY ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ طﯾﺑﺔ‬
Faculty of Science ‫ﻛﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﻌﻠوم‬

‫ﻗﺳم اﻟرﯾﺎﺿﯾﺎت‬
.Department of Math
Probability and Statistics for Engineers

STAT 301
Second Semester 1432/1433
Teacher : Dr. Osama Hosam

Chapter 2:
Lesson 2
Probability
2.4. Probability of an Event: Text book page 48
· To every point (outcome) in the sample

space of an experiment S, we assign a
weight (or probability), ranging from 0 to 1,
such that the sum of all weights
(probabilities) equals 1.
· The weight (or probability) of an outcome
measures its likelihood (chance) of
occurrence.
· To find the probability of an event A, we
sum all probabilities of the sample points
in A. This sum is called the probability of
the event A and is denoted by P(A).
Definition 2.8:
The probability of an event A is the sum of
the weights (probabilities) of all sample
points in A. Therefore,
1)
2)
3)
Example 2.22:
A balanced coin is tossed twice. What is the
probability that at least one head occurs?
Solution:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
A = {at least one head occurs}= {HH, HT, TH}
Since the coin is balanced, the outcomes
are equally likely; i.e., all outcomes have the
same weight or probability.
Outcome Weight
(Probability)
4w =1 ⇔ w =1/4 = 0.25
HH P(HH) = w P(HH)=P(HT)=P(TH)=P(TT)=0.25
HT P(HT) = w
TH P(TH) = w
TT P(TT) = w
sum 4w=1
The probability that at least one head
occurs is:
P(A) = P({at least one head occurs})=P({HH,
HT, TH})
= P(HH) + P(HT) + P(TH)
= 0.25+0.25+0.25
= 0.75
Theorem 2.9:
If an experiment has n(S)=N equally likely
different outcomes, then the probability of
the event A is:
Example 2.25:
A mixture of candies consists of 6 mints, 4
toffees, and 3 chocolates. If a person makes
a random selection of one of these candies,
find the probability of getting:
(a) a mint
(b) a toffee or chocolate.
Solution:
Define the following events:
M = {getting a mint}
T = {getting a toffee}
C = {getting a chocolate}
Experiment: selecting a candy at random
from 13 candies
n(S) = no. of outcomes of the experiment of
selecting a candy.
= no. of different ways of selecting a
candy from 13 candies.
The outcomes of the experiment are
equally likely because the selection is made
at random.
(a) M = {getting a mint}
n(M) = no. of different ways of selecting
a mint candy from 6 mint candies
P(M )= P({getting a mint})=

(b) T∪C = {getting a toffee or chocolate}
n(T∪C) = no. of different ways of
selecting a toffee or a chocolate
candy
= no. of different ways of selecting
a toffee candy + no. of different
ways of selecting chocolate
candy
= no. of different ways of
selecting a candy from 7 candies
P(T∪C )= P({getting a toffee or chocolate})
=
Example 2.26:
In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find
the probability of holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
Example 2.26:
In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find
the probability of holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
Solution:
Experiment: selecting 5 cards from 52 cards.
n(S) = no. of outcomes of the experiment of
selecting 5 cards from 52 cards.
The outcomes of the experiment are equally
likely because the selection is made at
random.
Define the event A = {holding 2 aces and 3
jacks}
n(A) = no. of ways of selecting 2 aces and 3
jacks
= (no. of ways of selecting 2 aces) × (no.
of ways of selecting 3 jacks)
= (no. of ways of selecting 2 aces from 4
aces) × (no. of ways of selecting 3
jacks from 4 jacks)
×
P(A )= P({holding 2 aces and 3 jacks })

Additive Rule
2.5 Additive Rules:
Theorem 2.10:
If A and B are any two events, then:
P(A∪B)= P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)
Corollary 1:
If A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint)
events, then:
P(A∪B)= P(A) + P(B)
Corollary 2:
If A1, A2, …, An are n mutually exclusive
(disjoint) events, then:
P(A1∪ A2 ∪… ∪A n)= P(A1) + P(A2) +… +
P(An)
Corollary 3:
If A1, A2, …, An is a partition of sample space
S, then
P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ….∪ An) =
P(A1) + P(A2) …+ P(An) = P(S) = 1.
Note: Two event Problems:
Total area= P(S)=1* In Venn diagrams,
consider the probability of an event A as
the area of the region corresponding to the
event A.
* Total area= P(S)=1
Total area= P(S)=1

* Examples:
P(A)= P(A∩B)+ P(A∩BC)
P(A∪B)= P(A) + P(AC∩B)
P(A∪B)= P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)
P(A∩BC)= P(A) − P(A∩B)
P(AC∩BC)= 1 − P(A∪B)
etc.,
Example 2.27:
The probability that Paula passes
Mathematics is 2/3, and the probability that
she passes English is 4/9. If the probability
that she passes both courses is 1/4, what is
the probability that she will:
(a) pass at least one course?
(b) pass Mathematics and fail English?
(c) fail both courses?
Solution:
Define the events:
M={Paula passes Mathematics}
E={Paula passes English}
We know that P(M)=2/3, P(E)=4/9, and
P(M∩E)=1/4.
(a) Probability of passing at least one
course is:
P(M∪E)= P(M) + P(E) − P(M∩E)
(b) Probability of passing Mathematics and
failing English is:
P(M∩EC)= P(M) − P(M∩E)
(c) Probability of failing both courses is:

P(MC∩EC)= 1 − P(M∪E)
Theorem 2.12:
If A and AC are complementary events,
then:
P(A) + P(AC) = 1 ⇔ P(AC) = 1 − P(A)
Proof: Since A U AC = S and the sets A and AC

are disjoint, then
1 = P(S) = P(A U AC) = P(A) + P(AC).
Example 2.31 If the probabilities that an
automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or
8 or more cars on any given workday are,
respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and
0.07, what is the probability that he will service
at least 5 cars on his next day at work?

Solution: Let E be the event that at least 5 cars
are serviced. Now, P(E) = 1 — P(Ec),
where Ec is the event that fewer than 5 cars are
serviced. Since
P(Ec) = 0.12+ 0.19 = 0.31,
it follows from Theorem 2.12 that
P(E) = 1 - 0.31 = 0.69.
Example 2.32 Suppose the manufacturer
specifications of the length of a certain type of
computer cable are 2000 ± 10 millimeters. In this
industry, it is known that small cable is just as
likely to be defective (not meeting specifications)
as large cable. That is, the probability of
randomly producing a cable with length
exceeding 2010 millimeters
is equal to the probability of producing a cable
with length smaller than 1990 millimeters. The
probability that the production procedure meets
specifications is known to be 0.99.
(a) What is the probability that a cable selected
randomly is too large?
(b) What is the probability that a randomly
selected cable is larger than 1990
millimeters?
Solution: Let M be the event that a cable meets
specifications. Let S and L be the events
that the cable is too small and too large,
respectively. Then
(a) P(M) = 0.99 and P(S) = P(L) = = 0.005.
(b) Denoting by X the length of a randomly
selected cable, we have
P(1990 < X < 2010) = P(M) = 0.99.
Since P(X > 2010) = P(L) = 0.005
then
P(X > 1990) = P(M) + P(L) = 0.995.
This also can be solved by using Theorem 2.12:
P(X > 1990) + P(X < 1990) = 1.
Thus, P(X > 1990) = 1 – P(S)
= 1 - 0.005 = 0.995.
Exercise
Exercise
Exercise
Exercise
Conditional
Probability
The probability of an event B occurring
when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called a conditional
probability and is denoted by P(B|A). The
symbol P (B | A) is usually read "the
probability that B occurs given that A
occurs"
or simply "the probability of B, given A."
Example:
Suppose that our sample space S is
the population of adults in a small
town who have completed the
requirements for a college degree.
We shall categorize them according
to gender and employment status.
The data are given in the following
table.
Independent Events :
Multiplicative Rules:
Multiplying the formula of
Definition 2.9 by P(A), we obtain
the following important
multiplicative rule, which enables
us to calculate the probability that
two events will both occur.
Example:
Suppose that we have a fuse box
containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at
random and removed from the box
in succession without replacing the
first, what is the probability that
both fuses are defective?
Example:
An electrical system consists of four
components as illustrated in Figure 1 below.
The system works if components A and B work
and either of the components C or D work. The
reliability (probability of working) of each
component is also shown in Figure 1. Find the
probability that
(a) the entire system works, and
(b) the component C does not work, given that
the entire system works. Assume that four
components work independently.
Solution:
In this configuration of the system, A, B, and
the subsystem C and D constitute
a serial circuit system, whereas the subsystem
C and D itself is a parallel circuit system.
(a) Clearly the probability that the entire

system works can be calculated as the
following:
The equalities above hold because of the
independence among the four components.
Conditional
Probability - Bayes’
Rule
Bayes’Rule:
Consider the following figure
A generalization of the foregoing illustration
to the case where the sample space is
partitioned into k subsets is covered by the
following theorem, sometimes called the
theorem of total probability or the rule of
elimination.
Exercise
Exercise
Exercise
Exercise
Exercise

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TAIBAH UNIVERSITY ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ طﯾﺑﺔ‬

Faculty of Science ‫ﻛﻠﯾﺔ اﻟﻌﻠوم‬

Probability and Statistics for Engineers

Teacher : Dr. Osama Hosam

· To every point (outcome) in the sample

P(M )= P({getting a mint})=

P(T∪C )= P({getting a toffee or chocolate})

P(A )= P({holding 2 aces and 3 jacks })

Total area= P(S)=1

(c) Probability of failing both courses is:

Proof: Since A U AC = S and the sets A and AC

automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or

8 or more cars on any given workday are,

respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and

0.07, what is the probability that he will service

at least 5 cars on his next day at work?

(a) Clearly the probability that the entire

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