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Breakthrough
Availability
Immune Engineering. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1-2 years
5-10 years
Conversational Interfaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
now
Reusable Rockets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
now
3-5 years
this year
SolarCitys Gigafactory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
next year
Slack. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
now
Tesla Autopilot.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
now
2-3 years
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Immune
Engineering
Genetically engineered immune cells are saving the lives
of cancer patients. That may be just the start.
By Antonio Regalado
Breakthrough
Killer T cells programmed to wipe out
cancer.
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3
Why It Matters
Cancer, multiple sclerosis, and HIV could
all be treated by engineering the immune
system.
Key Players in
Immune Therapies
- Cellectis
- Juno Therapeutics
- Novartis
The doctors looking at Layla Richards saw a little girl with leukemia bubbling in her veins. Shed had bags and bags of chemotherapy and a bone marrow transplant. But the cancer still
thrived. By last June, the 12-month-old was desperately ill.
Her parents beggedwasnt there anything?
There was. In a freezer at her hospitalGreat Ormond
Street, in Londonsat a vial of white blood cells. The cells had
been genetically altered to hunt and destroy leukemia, but the
hospital hadnt yet sought permission to test them. They were
the most extensively engineered cells ever proposed as a therapy, with a total of four genetic changes, two of them introduced by the new technique of genome editing.
Soon a doctor from Great Ormond was on the phone to
Cellectis, a biotechnology company with French roots that
is now located on the East Side of Manhattan. The company
owned the cancer treatment, which it had devised using a
gene-editing method called TALENs, a way of making cuts
and fixes to DNA in living cells. We got a call. The doctors
said, Weve got a girl who is out of T cells and out of options,
Andr Choulika, the CEO of Cellectis, remembers. They
wanted one of the vials made during quality-control testing.
The doctors hoped to make Layla a special, a patient who
got the drug outside a clinical trial. It was a gamble, since the
treatment had been tried only in mice. If it failed, the com-
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Known killer
The human immune system has been called natures
weapon of mass destruction. It has a dozen major
cell types, including several kinds of T cells. It defends
against viruses its never seen before, suppresses cancer (though not always), and for the most part manages
to avoid harming the bodys own tissue. It even has a
memory, which is the basis of all vaccines.
More than 100 years ago, the American surgeon
William Coley observed that an unexpected infection could sometimes make a tumor evaporate. Sub-
Boom Times
Immune-engineering startups have gone
public, raising large sums for human trials.
Company
Amount
Raised in IPO
Date
Kite Pharma
$134 million
June 2014
Juno Therapeutics
$304 million
December 2014
Bellicum
Pharmaceuticals
$160 million
December 2014
Cellectis
$228 million
March 2015
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Big Deals
T-cell companies have sought agreements with drug
companies and specialists in gene editing.
August 2012
Swiss drug giant
Novartis forms a
sweeping alliance
with the University
of Pennsylvania,
site of early
successes using
engineered T cells.
January 2015
Novartis buys
CRISPR geneediting rights
from Intellia
Therapeutics.
Juno and Editas
Medicine later
strike a similar deal
for $25 million.
June 2015
Biotech firm
Celgene pays
Seattle-based
Juno $1 billion for
a slice of its T-cell
treatment portfolio.
November 2015
Drug companies
Pfizer and Servier
pay Cellectis $40
million for rights
to the first off
the shelf T-cell
treatment for
leukemia.
January 2016
Food maker Nestl
pays $120 million
to a startup named
Seres for bacteria
pills able to ward
off infection and
immune disorders.
January 2016
Juno pays $125
million to buy
AbVitro, a Boston
company that can
sequence the DNA
inside individual T
cells.
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Photographs by RC Rivera
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Precise Gene
Editing in Plants
CRISPR offers an easy, exact way to alter genes to create
traits such as disease resistance and drought tolerance.
By David Talbot
Breakthrough
The ability to cheaply
and precisely edit
plant genomes without leaving foreign
DNA behind.
Why It Matters
We need to increase
agricultural productivity to feed
the worlds growing
population, which is
expected to reach 10
billion by 2050.
GRANT CORNET T
Key Players in
Engineering Crops
- The Sainsbury
Laboratory and
John Innes Centre,
Norwich, U.K.
- Seoul National
University
- University of
Minnesota
- Institute of Genetics
and Developmental
Biology, Beijing
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Conversational
Interfaces
Powerful speech technology from Chinas leading Internet
company makes it much easier to use a smartphone.
TOMI UM
By Will Knight
Breakthrough
Combining voice
recognition and natural
language understanding
to create effective
speech interfaces for
the worlds largest
Internet market.
Why It Matters
It can be timeconsuming and
frustrating to interact
with computers by
typing.
- Nuance
- Facebook
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Stroll through Sanlitun, a bustling neighborhood in Beijing filled with tourists, karaoke
bars, and luxury shops, and youll see plenty
of people using the latest smartphones from
Apple, Samsung, or Xiaomi. Look closely,
however, and you might notice some of them
ignoring the touch screens on these devices in
favor of something much more efficient and
intuitive: their voice.
A growing number of Chinas 691 million smartphone users now regularly dispense with swipes, taps, and tiny keyboards
when looking things up on the countrys
most popular search engine, Baidu. China
is an ideal place for voice interfaces to take
off, because Chinese characters were hardly
designed with tiny touch screens in mind.
But people everywhere should benefit as
Baidu advances speech technology and
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750 million
81%
600
61%
40%
300
69%
75%
500
100%
557
80
420
450
150
303
60
356
40
233
24%
118
20
50
2007
13
66%
86%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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Researchers at Baidus
headquarters in Beijing are
plugging away at a digital
assistant that can hold a
conversation.
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that are dedicated to advancing the accuracy of speech recognition and working to make computers better at parsing the
meaning of sentences.
Jim Glass, a senior research scientist at MIT who has been
working on voice technology for the past few decades, agrees
that the timing may finally be right for voice control. Speech
has reached a tipping point in our society, he says. In my
experience, when people can talk to a device rather than via a
remote control, they want to do that.
Last November, Baidu reached an important landmark
with its voice technology, announcing that its Silicon Valley lab
had developed a powerful new speech recognition engine called
Deep Speech 2. It consists of a very large, or deep, neural network that learns to associate sounds with words and phrases
as it is fed millions of examples of transcribed speech. Deep
Speech 2 can recognize spoken words with stunning accuracy.
In fact, the researchers found that it can sometimes transcribe
snippets of Mandarin speech more accurately than a person.
Baidus progress is all the more impressive because Mandarin is phonetically complex and uses tones that transform
the meaning of a word. Deep Speech 2 is also striking because
few of the researchers in the California lab where the technology was developed speak Mandarin, Cantonese, or any other
variant of Chinese. The engine essentially works as a universal
speech system, learning English just as well when fed enough
examples.
Most of the voice commands that Baidus search engine
hears today are simple queriesconcerning tomorrows
weather or pollution levels, for example. For these, the system is usually impressively accurate. Increasingly, however,
users are asking more complicated questions. To take them on,
last year the company launched its own voice assistant, called
DuEr, as part of its main mobile app. DuEr can help users find
movie show times or book a table at a restaurant.
The big challenge for Baidu will be teaching its AI systems
to understand and respond intelligently to more complicated
spoken phrases. Eventually, Baidu would like for DuEr to take
part in a meaningful back-and-forth conversation, incorporating changing information into the discussion. To get there, a
research group at Baidus Beijing offices is devoted to improving the system that interprets users queries. This involves using
the kind of neural-network technology that Baidu has applied
in voice recognition, but it also requires other tricks. And Baidu
has hired a team to analyze the queries fed to DuEr and correct
mistakes, thus gradually training the system to perform better.
In the future, I would love for us to be able to talk to all of
our devices and have them understand us, Ng says. I hope to
someday have grandchildren who are mystified at how, back in
2016, if you were to say Hi to your microwave oven, it would
rudely sit there and ignore you.
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Reusable
Rockets
Rockets typically are destroyed on their maiden voyage. But
now they can make an upright landing and be refueled for
another trip, setting the stage for a new era in spaceflight.
By Brian Bergstein
Breakthrough
Rockets that can
launch payloads
into orbit and
then land safely.
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Why It Matters
Lowering the
cost of flight
would open the
door to many
new endeavors in
space.
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Robots
That Teach
Each Other
What if robots could figure out more things
on their own and share that knowledge
among themselves?
By Amanda Schaffer
Breakthrough
Robots that learn
tasks and send that
knowledge to the
cloud for other robots
to pick up later.
Why It Matters
Progress in robotics could accelerate dramatically if
each type of machine
didnt have to be programmed separately.
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Key Players in
Advanced Robotics
- Ashutosh Saxena,
Brain of Things
- Stefanie Tellex,
Brown University
- Pieter Abbeel, Ken
Goldberg, and
Sergey Levine,
University of
California, Berkeley
- Jan Peters, Technical
University of
Darmstadt, Germany
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MIT
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By Antonio Regalado
JAVIER JAN
Breakthrough
A new business model
for DNA sequencing
that will make genetic
information widely
accessible online.
Why It Matters
Your genome
determines a great
deal about you,
including your
likelihood of getting
certain diseases.
Key Players in
Consumer Genomics
- Helix
- Illumina
- Veritas Genomics
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SolarCitys
Gigafactory
A $750 million solar facility in Buffalo will produce
a gigawatt of high-efficiency solar panels per year
and make residential panels far more attractive to
homeowners.
By Richard Martin
Photographs by Gus Powell
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SolarCity CEO
Lyndon Rive
Breakthrough
Highly efficient solar
panels made using a
simplified, low-cost
manufacturing process.
Why It Matters
The solar industry
needs cheaper and
more efficient technology to be more competitive with fossil fuels.
Key Players in
Photovoltaics
- SolarCity
- SunPower
- Panasonic
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type of solar technology is a risky undertaking. However, the potential benefits are
huge. The new factory, says SolarCity chief
technology officer Peter Rive, could transform both SolarCitys business, which has
consistently lost money, and the economics
of residential solar power.
Solar panels installed by SolarCity
cost the company $2.84 per watt (including sales and marketing plus overhead, in
addition to the cost of the hardware), down
from $4.73 in 2012. The combination of the
new, highly efficient panels, the volume of
product coming out of the new factory, and
a simplified manufacturing process is a big
reason why the company expects its costs
for residential solar to fall well below $2.50
per watt by the end of 2017, when the Buffalo facility reaches full production.
Bolstered by federal solar subsidies and
net metering, the rules that allow homeowners to sell excess power back to the grid
at retail prices in many states, SolarCity is
already leading the way in making residential systems financially attractive to many
households, spurring an explosion in the
popularity of the rooftop panels. The drop
in installed costs could make residential
solar even more popular.
Right now we can sell you energy in 14
states at a rate lower than what youre currently paying the utility, says Rive. The Buffalo factory, he adds, sets us up for a future
where solar plus batteries is cheaper than
fossil fuels.
Key to the companys ambitions is a
technology it acquired when it bought a
small solar company called Silevo in 2014.
That technology, which allows it to make
panels that are highly efficient at converting sunlight into electricity, traces its origins to the Australian solar power pioneer
Martin Green in the late 1970s. It combines a standard crystalline-silicon solar
cell with elements of a thin-film cell, along
with a layer of a semiconductor oxide. Last
October, SolarCity announced that test
panels made at a small facility in Fre
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mont, California, had tested at just over 22 percent efficiency. Todays commodity silicon-based solar panels have
efficiencies of between 16 and 18 percent. SolarCity competitor SunPower previously led the market with cells that can
reach 21.5 percent.
Efficiency matters because the panels themselves represent only 15 to 20 percent of the cost of the full installation.
Much of the rest comes in whats known as balance-of-system
costs: inverters to connect to the grid, materials to house the
array, nuts and bolts to attach it to the roof, the labor to install
it, and so on. SolarCitys installation, says the company, will
require one-third fewer panels to produce the same amount of
electricity as conventional installations. Fewer panels means
fewer bits and pieces, less wire, less days on the roof to install,
says Francis OSullivan, the director of research and analysis at
the MIT Energy Initiative.
SolarCity uses a deposition manufacturing process that
reduces the number of steps required to make the cells from
two dozen or more to just six. It also replaces silver, one of the
most expensive elements of conventional solar cells, with less
expensive copper.
But the difference in performance between solar panels
produced in a small facility like SolarCitys Fremont plant
and in a large factory like the Buffalo one could be significant. And scaling up production could be particularly tricky
given SolarCitys lack of manufacturing experience. Rive
acknowledges that there could be small risks around the
actual time line in getting the products coming out of Buffalo to match the efficiencies achieved at small scale. Already,
SolarCity has pushed back the target date for full production
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from the Buffalo factory from the first quarter of 2017 to later
in the year.
But the real risk lies in the rapid advance of solar technology: a record-setting panel today might look relatively inefficient three or five years down the road. Soon after SolarCity
showed off its high-efficiency panels last October, Panasonic
topped its rival by claiming that its new panels would reach
efficiencies of 22.5 percent. Meanwhile, efficiencies in the lab
are even higher: researchers have made exotic solar-cell materials with efficiencies of up to 40 percent. I think that within
10 years, most manufacturers will be producing panels over 20
percent efficiency, with the best commercial panels reaching
over 23 percent, Green says.
OSullivan adds: For now, SolarCity is moving the boat
out as far as it can with, generically speaking, contemporary
technology. But were beginning to approach a choke point for
the economics of any silicon-based technologyincluding
the new cells SolarCity is bringing online. Future advances, he
says, will entail much lighter, flexible panels that offer much
higher efficiencies and are even cheaper to installand thus
produce electricity at a much lower cost.
At that point, the solar panels coming out of the gigafactory may seem as conventional as commodity panels produced
in China today. It is, however, SolarCitys willingness to take
on such risks that makes the Buffalo facility so ambitious. Over
the last 10 years, the Silicon Valley company has made residential solar a popular choice for many consumers through smart
marketing and attractive financing. Now it wants to transform
solar manufacturing. Whether SolarCity succeeds or fails, it is
once again pushing the possibilities of solar power.
COURTESY OF SOLARCIT Y
The factory is
situated on a former
Republic Steel
manufacturing
site, not far from
downtown Buffalo.
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TODAY
51%
2008
12%
TODAY
37%
1995
9%
Estimated average number of e-mails sent and received by business users each day
TODAY
122
2011
105
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Slack
A service built for the era of mobile phones and short text
messages is changing the workplace.
By Lee Gomes
Breakthrough
Easy-to-use communication software that
is supplanting e-mail
as a method of getting work done.
Why It Matters
In many kinds of
workplaces, the
water cooler effect
that lets people overhear their colleagues
conversations can
enhance productivity.
Key Players in
Communication
Software
- Slack
- Quip
- Hipchat
- Microsoft
School of Management, points out that Slack funnels messages into streams that everyone who
works together can see. That allows you to overhear what is going on in an organization, which
research has shown can lead to business impact, he
says. Its a kind of ambient awareness that you just
dont get from e-mail.
Kristina Lerman, a specialist in social computing at the Information Sciences Institute at
the University of Southern California, notes that
Slack messages tend to be short and casual, much
more like the mobile text messages that people are
increasingly favoring over e-mail in their personal
life. This creates the perception that keeping in
touch with coworkers is effortless. You get the feeling that you are quickly responding to everything
that is happening around you, Lerman says.
In fact, Slack makes it so easy to create messages that it might end up placing as many
demands on peoples time as e-mail traditionally
has, albeit with a hip and friendly interface. There
are limits to the amount of time that we have to
interact with each other, and Slack doesnt really
cure that, Lerman says. Software might take some
of the friction out of getting work done, but it is
still work.
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Tesla Autopilot
The electric-vehicle maker sent its cars
a software update that suddenly made
autonomous driving a reality.
By Ryan Bradley
Photographs by Julian Berman
Breakthrough
A car that drives
itself safely in a variety of conditions.
Why It Matters
Car crashes caused
by human error kill
thousands of people
a day worldwide.
Key Players in
Autonomous Driving
- Ford Motor
- General Motors
- Google
- Nissan
- Mercedes
- Tesla Motors
- Toyota
- Uber
- Volvo
In October 2014, Elon Musks electric-car company began rolling out sedans with a dozen
ultrasonic sensors discreetly placed around both
bumpers and sides. For an additional $4,250,
Tesla customers could purchase a technology
package that used the sensors, as well as a camera, a front radar, and digitally controlled brakes,
to help avoid collisionsessentially allowing the
car to take over and stop before crashing. But
mostly, the hardware sat there, waiting, waiting,
and gathering reams of data. A year later, last
October 14, the company sent a software update
to the 60,000 sensor-laden cars it had sold in that
time. The software update was officially named
Tesla Version 7.0, but its nicknameAutopilot
was what stuck.
It did in fact give drivers something similar to
what airline pilots employ in flight. The car could
manage its speed, steer within and even change
lanes, and park itself. Some of these features, like
automatic parallel parking, were already on offer
from other car companies (including Mercedes,
BMW, and General Motors), but the self-steering
was suddenly, overnight, via a software update, a
giant leap toward full autonomy.
Tesla customers, delighted, posted videos of
themselves on the highway, hands free, reading
the paper, sipping coffee, and even, once, riding
on the roof. Some of these are, its worth pointing
out, illegal acts. Autopilot existed in a legal gray
area, but it was a grand gesture toward an ever
nearing future, one that will reshape not just the
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car and our relationship with it but the road and our
entire transportation infrastructure.
Which is why I jumped at the chance to borrow a car
with Autopilot for a few days and drive itor let it drive
mearound Los Angeles.
Everyone wanted to know what it felt like, the strange
surrender of allowing a car to take control. The only
moments that seemed like magic were when the car parked
itself or changed lanes, mostly because watching a steering
wheel turn all on its own was unnatural and ghostly.Other
than that, I was amazed by how quickly I got used to it, how
inevitable it began to feel. As a Tesla engineer told meon
condition of anonymity, because the company wont let anyone but Musk speak publicly these daysthe thing that
quickly becomes strange is driving a car without Autopilot.
Youll feel like the car is not doing its job, he said.
The car cant start in Autopilot; it requires a set of circumstances (good data, basically) before you can engage the
setting. These include clear lane lines, a relatively constant
speed, a sense of the cars around you, and a map of the area
youre traveling throughroughly in that order. L.A.s abundant highway traffic is the ideal scenario for Autopilot, not
simply because of all the data it makes available to the ultrasonic sensorswhich use high-frequency sound waves to
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Power from
the Air
Internet devices powered by Wi-Fi and other
telecommunications signals will make small
computers and sensors more pervasive.
By Mark Harris
Breakthrough
Wireless gadgets
that repurpose
nearby radio signals, such as Wi-Fi,
to power themselves
and communicate.
Why It Matters
Freeing Internet-
connected devices
from the constraints
of batteries and
power cords will
open up many new
uses.
Key Players in
Harvesting
Radio Waves
- University of
Washington
- Texas Instruments
- University of
Massachusetts,
Amherst
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