New Era University

College of Engineering and Technology

Department of Mechanical Engineering

ES 311

Engineering Management
MW 10:00am 1:00pm

PERT and CPM

Name: Dela Cruz, Hazy Joy L.

Laprades, Christian G.

Course & Year: BSME 3rd Year

Group 4: June 09, 2016

Instructor:
Engr. Hector C. Lee
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

History 3

What is PERT? 3

Limitations 3, 4

Advantages 4

Disadvantages 4

Key Steps in PERT 4-6

Example 1 7-8

Example 2 9 - 10

Example 3 11 12

Critical Path Method (CPM)

History 13 - 14

What is CPM? 14

Limitations 14 - 16

Advantages 16

Disadvantages 16 - 17

Key Steps in CPM 17 - 20

Example 1 21

Example 2 22

Example 3 23

2
Part 1: Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

1. History

Using the critical path method to schedule projects began in the late 1950s,
with two simultaneous, unrelated projects. The US Navys Fleet Ballistic Missile
(Polaris) Program was behind schedule and needed help resolving the problem.
The suggested solution was to divide the project into several thousand tasks,
represent each task by an arrow, connect the arrows in proper sequence,
estimate the duration of each task, and calculate the project duration and the
degree of schedule criticality of each task.

At about the same time, the EI DuPont de Nemours Company, an American

chemical company, was experiencing delays in its plant turnarounds, a project
to rearrange production facilities for different products. They, too, needed help
and the proposed answer was similar to that of the Polaris Program.

The developers of the Polaris Programs approach called their solution the
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), while the DuPont method was
called Critical Path Method (CPM). Although these methods are similar, they
used different techniques for estimating task duration.

The PERT method used three different time estimations for each task duration
and calculated the probability of project completion by any given time. The
DuPont approach used one time duration for each task; it was concerned not
only with project completion time, but also with analyzing the extra costs that
would accrue if the project duration were decreased.

2. What is PERT?
When you are managing a project it means you have to know the time taken
by all the activities within the task and their effects on the project. When you
implement PERT you break down the tasks involved in the project into small
blocks. These blocks are then connected to each other and are named as paths.
Within these paths there is one which is named as the critical path. It must be
made sure that the critical path be followed without interruptions and delays
because a delay in this path will result in delaying the entire project. The main
purpose of PERT is simply to provide you with the schedule of the project that
you are about to start working on.

3. Limitations
The following are some of PERT's weaknesses:

3.1. The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and depend on
judgment. In
3
 cases where there is little experience in performing an activity, the
numbers may be
only a guess. In other cases, if the person or group performing the
activity estimates
the time there may be bias in the estimate.

3.2. Even if the activity times are well estimated, PERT assumes a beta
distribution for
these time estimates, but the actual distribution may be different.

3.3. Even if the beta distribution assumption holds, PERT assumes that the
probability
distribution of the project completion time is the same as the that of the
critical path.
Because other paths can become the critical path if their associated
activities are
delayed, PERT consistently underestimates the expected project
completion time.

4. Advantages

4.1. PERT chart explicitly defines and makes visible dependencies (precedence
relationships) between the work
breakdown structure (commonly WBS) elements.

4.2. PERT facilitates identification of the critical path and makes this visible.

4.3. PERT facilitates identification of early start, late start, and slack for each
activity.

4.4. PERT provides for potentially reduced project duration due to better
understanding of
dependencies leading to improved overlapping of activities and tasks
where feasible.

4.5. The large amount of project data can be organized & presented in
diagram for use in
decision making.

4.6. PERT can provide a probability of completing before a given time.

5. Disadvantages

5.1. There can be potentially hundreds or thousands of activities and individual

dependency relationships.

4
 5.2. PERT is not easily scalable for smaller projects.

5.3. The network charts tend to be large and unwieldy requiring several pages
to print
and requiring specially sized paper.

5.4. The lack of a timeframe on most PERT/CPM charts makes it harder to show
status
although colours can help (e.g., specific colour for completed nodes).

6. Key Steps in PERT

6.1. Identify Activities and Milestones

The activities are the tasks required to complete the project. The
milestones are the events
marking the beginning and end of one or more activities. It is helpful to
list the tasks in a table
that in later steps can be expanded to include information on sequence
and duration.

6.2. Determine Activity Sequence

This step may be combined with the activity identification step since
the activity sequence
is evident for some tasks. Other tasks may require more analysis to
determine the exact order
in which they must be performed.

6.3. Construct the Network Diagram

Using the activity sequence information, a network diagram can be
drawn showing the sequence of the serial and parallel activities. For the
original activityonarc model, the activities are depicted by arrowed lines
and milestones are depicted by circles or "bubbles".
If done manually, several drafts may be required to correctly portray the
relationships among activities. Software packages simplify this step by
automatically converting tabular activity information into a network
diagram.

6.4. Estimate Activity Times

Weeks are a commonly used unit of time for activity completion, but
any consistent unit of
time can be used.

5
 A distinguishing feature of PERT is its ability to deal with uncertainty in
activity completion
times. For each activity, the model usually includes three time estimates:

a. Optimistic time generally the shortest time in which the activity can be
completed. It is
common practice to specify optimistic times to be three standard
deviations from the
mean so that there is approximately a 1% chance that the activity will
be completed
within the optimistic time.

b. Most likely time the completion time having the highest probability.
Note that this time
is different from the expected time.

c. Pessimistic time the longest time that an activity might require. Three
standard
deviations from the mean is commonly used for the pessimistic time.

PERT assumes a beta probability distribution for the time estimates. For a
beta distribution, the expected time for each activity can be approximated
using the following weighted average:

Expected time = ( Optimistic + 4 x Most likely + Pessimistic ) / 6

This expected time may be displayed on the network diagram. To calculate

the variance for each activity completion time, if three standard deviation
times were selected for the optimistic and pessimistic times, then there are
six standard deviations between them, so the variance is given by:

[ ( Pessimistic Optimistic ) / 6 ]2

6.5. Determine the Critical Path

The critical path is determined by adding the times for the
activities in each sequence and determining the longest path in the project.
The critical path determines the total calendar time required for the
project. If activities outside the critical path speed up or slow down (within
limits), the total project time does not change. The amount of time that a
noncritical path activity can be delayed without delaying the project is
referred to as slack time.

If the critical path is not immediately obvious, it may be helpful to

determine the following four quantities for each activity:

ES Earliest Start time

6
 EF Earliest Finish time

LS Latest Start time

LF Latest Finish time

These times are calculated using the expected time for the relevant
activities. The earliest start and finish times of each activity are determined
by working forward through the network and determining the earliest time
at which an activity can start and finish considering its predecessor
activities. The latest start and finish times are the latest times that an
activity can start and finish without delaying the project. LS and LF are
found by working backward through the network. The difference in the
latest and earliest finish of each activity is that activity's slack. The critical
path then is the path through the network in which none of the activities
have slack. The variance in the project completion time can be calculated
by summing the variances in the completion times of the activities in the
critical path. Given this variance, one can calculate the probability that the
project will be completed by a certain date assuming a normal probability
distribution for the critical path. The normal distribution assumption holds if
the number of activities in the path is large enough for the central limit
theorem to be applied.

Since the critical path determines the completion date of the project, the
project can be accelerated by adding the resources required to decrease
the time for the activities in the critical path. Such a shortening of the
project sometimes is referred to as project crashing.

6.6. Update as Project Progresses

Make adjustments in the PERT chart as the project progresses. As the
project unfolds, the estimated times can be replaced with actual times. In
cases where there are delays, additional resources may be needed to stay
on schedule and the PERT chart may be modified to reflect the new
situation

7
7. Examples
Activity Activity Description Predecess a m b ET
or Hours
A Gathering of materials - 3 6 9 6
B Obtain ethylene by heating heavier A 3 5 7 5
hydrocarbons
C Combine ethylene to make polyethylene B 1. 3 4. 3
5 5
D Forming polyethylene into a sheet C 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
E Shaping of polyethylene sheet into a tray D 1 2 3 2
F Cooling of molten steel into strips A 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
G Punching holes into steel strips F 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
H Painting of steel components G 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
I Acquire rubber for wheel A 1. 3 4. 3
5 5
J Heating and molding of rubber into tire I 1. 3 4. 3
shape 5 5
K Cooling of wheel J 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
L Cutting and shaping of lumber into A 1. 3 4. 3
handles 5 5
M Applying varnish to handles L 1 2 3 2
N Assembling of parts E, H, K, M 1 2 3 2
7.1. Example: Proposed Construction of a Wheelbarrow
The manufacturing company must perform the following tasks before a
wheelbarrow is
constructed and supposed that activity durations are not known due to
weather.

8
 Table 7.1

Fig. 7.1

Materials
Petroleum Rubber
Heating equipment Lumber
Shaping molds Woodworking equipment
Electrostatic paint booth Bolts and nuts
Steel strips

Legend
a - Optimistic Time m - Most Likely
b - Pessimistic Time ET - Expected Time

Solving for Expected time for each activity.

a+4 m+ b
ET = 6

( 3 )+ 4 ( 6 ) + ( 9 ) ( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 )
1. Activity A: =3 8. Activity H: =1
6 6

9
 ( 3 )+ 4 ( 5 ) + ( 7 ) ( 1.5 )+ 4 ( 3 ) + ( 4.5 )
2. Activity B: =5 9. Activity I: =3
6 6

3. Activity C: ( 1.5 )+ 4 ( 3 ) + ( 4.5 )

10. Activity J: =3
( 1.5 )+ 4 ( 3 ) + ( 4.5 ) 6
=3
6

4. Activity D: ( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 )

11. Activity K: =1
( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 ) 6
=1
6

( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 ) ( 1.5 )+ 4 ( 3 ) + ( 4.5 )
5. Activity E: =2 12. Activity L: =3
6 6

( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 ) ( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 )
6. Activity F: =1 13. Activity M: =2
6 6

7. Activity G: ( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 )
14. Activity N: =2
( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 ) 6
=1
6

Solving for the Critical Path

Solution for TE Solution for TL
TE(A) = Starting Node + D(A) = 0 TL(N) = End Node D(N) = 19 2 =
+6=6 17
TE(B) = TE(A) + D(B) = 6 + 5 = TL(E) = TL(N) D(E) = 17 - 2 = 15
11
TE(C) = TE(B) + D(C) = 11 + 3 = TL(H) = TL(N) D(H) = 17 - 1 = 16
14
TE(D) = TE(C) + D(D) = 14 + 1 = TL(K) = TL(N) D(K) = 17 - 1 = 16
15
TE(E) = TE(D) + D(E) = 15 + 2 = TL(M) = TL(N) D(M) = 17 - 2 = 15
17
TE(F) = TE(A) + D(F) = 6 + 1 = 7 TL(D) = TL(E) D(D) = 15 - 1 = 14
TE(G) = TE(F) + D(G) = 7 + 1 = 8 TL(C) = TL(D) D(C) = 14 - 3 = 11
TE(H) = TE(G) + D(H) = 8 + 1 = 9 TL(G) = TL(H) D(G) = 16 -1 = 15
TE(I) = TE(A) + D(I) = 6 + 3 = 9 TL(J) = TL(K) D(J) = 16 -3 = 13
TE(J) = TE(I) + D(J) = 9 + 3 = 12 TL(L) = TL(M) D(L) = 15 -3 = 12
TE(K) = TE(J) + D(K) = 12 + 1 = TL(I) = TL(J) D(L) = 13 3 = 10
13
TE(L) = TE(A) + D(L) = 6 + 3 = 9 TL(F) = TL(G) D(F) = 15 -1 = 14
TE(M) = TE(L) + D(M) = 9 + 2 = TL(B) = TL(C) D(B) = 11 - 5 = 6
11
TE(N) = TE(E) + D(N) = 17 + 2 = TL(A) = TL(B) D(A) = 6 -6 = 0
10
 19

7.2. Example: Manufacturing of a Lawn Mower

The manufacturers have decided to produce a lawn mower and must accomplish
the
Activity Activity Description Predeces a m b ET
sor Hours
A Moving materials into plant - 3 5 7 5
B Machine stamping of mower pan A 1. 3 4. 3
5 5
C Creating apertures in mower pan B 0. 1 1. 1
with plasma cutter 5 5
D Welding of baffles C 1 2 3 2
E Powder painting of exposed parts D 0. 1 1. 1
and pan 5 5
F Bending of tubing A 1 2 3 2
G Piercing tubing for mechanical F 1 2 3 2
attachments
H Forming subassemblies A 2 4 6 4
I Bolting of mower pan with drive E, H 1 2 3 2
mechanism
J Securing shift controls I 1 2 3 2
K Fastening of blade and clutch J 0. 1 1. 1
wheels 5 5
L Attaching of handle G, K 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
M Making final set up adjustments L 1 2 3 2
following tasks:

Table 7.2

Table 7.2

11
Figure 7.2

12
 Materials
Plasma cutter Engine
Electrostatic paint booth Steel mower pan
Robots Steel tubing
Tires Plastic chutes
Shift mechanism Steel blades
Wiring harnesses Bolts and nuts
Legend
a - Optimistic Time m - Most Likely
b - Pessimistic Time ET - Expected Time

Solving for Expected time for each activity

a+4 m+ b
ET = 6

( 3 )+ 4 ( 5 ) + ( 7 ) ( 2 ) + 4 ( 4 ) +( 6 )
1. Activity A: =5 8. Activity H: =4
6 6

2. Activity B: ( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 )
9. Activity I: =2
( 1.5 )+ 4 ( 3 ) + ( 4.5 ) 6
=3
6

3. Activity C: ( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 )
10. Activity J: =2
( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 ) 6
=1
6

( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 ) ( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 )
4. Activity D: =2 11. Activity K: =1
6 6

( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 ) ( 0.5 )+ 4 ( 1 ) + ( 1.5 )

5. Activity E: =1 12. Activity L: =1
6 6

( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 ) ( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 )
6. Activity F: =2 13. Activity M: =2
6 6

( 1 ) + 4 ( 2 ) +( 3 )
7. Activity G: =2
6

Solving for the Critical Path

Solution for TE Solution for TL
TE(A) = Starting Node + D(A) = 0 TL(M) = End Node D(M) = 20 2
+5=5 = 18
TE(B) = TE(A) + D(B) = 5 + 3 = 8 TL(L) = TL(M) D(L) = 18 - 1 = 17
TE(C) = TE(B) + D(C) = 8 + 1 = 9 TL(K) = TL(L) D(K) = 17 - 1 = 16
13
TE(D) = TE(C) + D(D) = 9 + 2 = TL(J) = TL(K) D(J) = 16 - 2 = 14
11
TE(E) = TE(D) + D(E) = 11 + 1 = TL(I) = TL(J) D(I) = 14 - 2 = 12
12
TE(F) = TE(A) + D(F) = 5 + 2 = 7 TL(E) = TL(I) D(E) = 12 - 1 = 11
TE(G) = TE(F) + D(G) = 7 + 2 = 9 TL(D) = TL(E) D(D) = 11 - 2 = 9
TE(H) = TE(A) + D(H) = 5 + 4 = 9 TL(C) = TL(D) D(C) = 9 -1 = 8
TE(I) = TE(E) + D(I) = 12 + 2 = 14 TL(B) = TL(C) D(B) = 8 -3 = 5
TE(J) = TE(I) + D(J) = 14 + 2 = 16 TL(H) = TL(I) D(H) = 12 -4 = 8
TE(K) = TE(J) + D(K) = 16 + 1 = TL(G) = TL(L) D(G) = 17 2 = 15
17
TE(L) = TE(K) + D(L) = 17 + 1 = TL(F) = TL(G) D(F) = 15 -2 = 13
18
TE(M) = TE(L) + D(M) = 18 + 2 = TL(A) = TL(B) D(A) = 5 - 5 = 0
20

14
7.3. Example: Proposed Construction of a Carousel
The manufacturing company must perform the following tasks before a
carousel is

constructed and supposed that activity durations are not known due to weather.

Table 7.3

15
 Figure 7.3

Materials
Electric/ Hydraulic motor Canvas
Gears Paint and varnish
Bearings Woodworking equipment
Crankshafts Footrests
Metal rods Jewels for decoration
Steel pole Adhesives
Basswood Bolts and nuts
Oak Nails
Plastic panels
Legend
a - Optimistic Time m - Most Likely
b - Pessimistic Time ET - Expected Time

16
Part 2: CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

1. History

Ancient Egypt
The origins of project management tools like the Critical Path Method can
be traced back to ancient civilizations. Over 5,000 years ago, the Great
Pyramid of Giza, which stands close to Egypts capital city Cairo, was built
using over two million blocks of stone. Each of the blocks weighed around
two tons. Archaeologists infer from ancient Egyptian records of the period
that thousands of skilled workers were organized into four construction
teams, one for each face of the pyramid. The 20-year construction project
required sophisticated planning and organization in order to find the correct
stones, and then to cut, transport, and set them in place, according to Lew
Ireland, president of the American Society for the Advancement of Project
Management.
Gantt Chart
The use of project management as a modern tool dates from the 1900s
with the creation of the Gantt chart. American mechanical engineers Henry
Gantt and Frederick Taylor designed a graphic method for planning and
controlling a work lengths of horizontal bars represent each activity's time
span, and the vertical axis lists the separate activities making up the project.
It was used in the 1931 Hoover Dam construction project. Gantt charts are
still in use today because they are easily understood by the whole project
workforce. The shortcomings of a Gantt chart are that it does not show the
interrelationships between the activities within a work sequence, or the
constraints they may impose on one another.
Dupont
Starting in 1956, a joint venture between the Dupont chemical company
and computer firm Remington Rand Univac devised the Critical Path Method
to tackle the interrelationships of separate activities within a project
schedule. The critical path is a sequence of individual activities of a project
that must be finished on schedule so that the whole project is completed on
time. Activities along the path cannot begin until a predecessor activity is
complete. CPM provides a graphical representation of the project and
predicts its completion time. The original calculations were made on the
UNIVAC-1 computer. This method was first tested in 1958 on a project to
construct a new chemical plant, and again in 1959 during the maintenance
shut down of another plant at Louisville, Kentucky.
U.S. Navy

17
 In 1958, the U.S. Navys Special Projects Office, together with aerospace
company Lockheed Missile Systems and consultancy firm Booz Allen &
Hamilton, developed Program Evaluation Review Technique, called PERT, for
the Polaris missile program. Like CPM, it was designed to tackle the
interrelationship between the different activities in a project. The research
developed simultaneously with, but independently of, Dupont and
Remington's CPM analysis. PERT's aim was to control over 3,000 contractors
employed on the missile program. The calculations were carried out on an
IBM computer. PERT was essentially a project road map identifying major
activities and their interrelationships. Unlike Duponts CPM, it only showed
time constraints and did not deal with the cost and quality issues faced by
commercial organizations. The driver for PERT was political, not commercial.
It was a tool to ensure the completion the Polaris program during the Cold
War when the U.S. government was concerned about the Soviet Unions
growing number of nuclear weapons.
Theory of Constraints
The Theory of Constraints was developed in the 1980s as an improvement
to CPM. One of CPMs limitations was that it did not consider non-critical
activities that could introduce risk to a project, such as labor issues over pay,
for example. Neither did it assume that a critical path may change during a
projects duration. In his Theory of Constraints, Israeli physicist Eliyahu
Goldratt wrote that a system can never be better than its weakest part, so
the improvement of a project and its schedule depends on the identification
of this constraint and its mitigation.
Critical Chain
In 1997, Goldratt introduced the concept of the Critical Chain in a book
with that title. Previously, CPM calculations were based on a strict sequence
in a projects activities, and a rigid project schedule. The Critical Chain
method emphasizes the resources required for a project, in particular costs,
and the flexibility required in these resources to keep a project on schedule
-- despite management's usual reluctance to increase a projects budget.
Goldratt also incorporated uncertainty "buffers" into project scheduling to
allow for unpredicted problems arising.
2. What is CPM?
The Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), an internationally
recognized collection of processes and knowledge areas accepted as best
practice for the project management profession, defines the critical path as
the sequence of scheduled activities that determines the duration of the
project. It is the longest sequence of tasks in a project plan that must be
completed on time in order for the project to meet its deadline. If there is a

18
 delay in any task on the critical path, then your whole project will be
delayed. Although many projects have only one critical path, some projects
may have multiple critical paths.
The critical path method is a step-by-step project management technique
to identify activities on the critical path. It is an approach to project
scheduling that breaks the project into several work tasks, displays them in
a flow chart, and then calculates the project duration based on estimated
durations for each task. It identifies tasks that are critical, time-wise, in
completing the project.
3. Limitations
The critical path method is a project modeling technique that uses
algorithms to schedule projects. You can use the critical path method to help
manage a project and complete it on time, but you have to be aware of its
limitations. When you know where its weaknesses lie, you can look out for
signs that the method is failing. CPM is more reliable for projects of a known
type or if you have completed similar projects, than for new and different
projects.
3.1. Activities
The basis for CPM is a network of clearly defined activities arranged
in proper sequence. The network starts with assigning a duration to
each activity that has no prerequisites and adds subsequent tasks in the
order they are carried out. In real projects, some tasks are continuous
and don't have a fixed duration. The preparation of drawings, for
example, starts without prerequisites and can carry on with detailed
drawings well into the project. Such activities are difficult to
accommodate in CPM. You can break down the drawings into separate
tasks, but the resulting CPM network becomes large and cumbersome.
CPM works best with simple projects made up of clearly defined tasks.
3.2. Durations
The validity of CPM relies on the accuracy of the duration project
management assigns to each task. For new types of projects this
duration is not well known. CPM works even with estimates of lower
accuracy if the deviations balance out statistically, with some tasks
taking longer and some completed in shorter times. Real projects don't
have such a balance, because if one task takes longer than scheduled,
there is usually a problem that affects other tasks. As a result, CPM has
limited validity for projects where the time estimates for tasks are not
reliable.

3.3. Sequences
19
 CPM depends on sequences of tasks that represent paths, each with a
total duration. In real projects, when there is a problem, project
managers change tasks around and create new sequences to address
the problem and mitigate its effects on the schedule. For example, if the
water supply to a building isn't ready on time, the project manager will
truck in water for critical purposes. This activity wasn't in the original
CPM sequences and requires a major revision to the CPM network. CPM
takes time and resources to change and sometimes you have to create
a new CPM network.
3.4. Critical Path
The sequence with the longest total duration is the critical path. If a
task on the critical path takes longer than the scheduled completion
time, the whole project suffers a delay. As a result, project managers
pay special attention to the tasks on the critical path. Sometimes a
parallel path is almost critical and, when a delay occurs in one of the
activities, that path becomes the sequence with the longest duration
and the new critical path. In this case, the focus of the project manager
has been on the wrong tasks, and the project suffers a delay despite the
fact that all tasks on the original critical path are on schedule.
4. Advantage

It wouldnt be right to say that these techniques are successful every time:
there are

always exceptions and the managers who actually perfect the use of these
techniques benefit more from them than others:

4.1. The more you know about a project, the more efficiently you can work
on it. What it
means is that when you know about all the activities that will be
involved in your
project, you can improvise and work on many options to reach the
optimum results.
4.2. It is not enough for a project to be successful only based on the
knowledge of tasks
involved in them; you must be aware of the activities that make up
those tasks. When
you know what activities are involved in a task, you are working in
more depths and
managing the project is much easier with that information.

20
 4.3. The dependencies of the activities play an important role in making a
project faster or
slower and meeting the deadline of the project. When you know what
activities are
dependent on each other, you can already plan to keep your focus on
the ones that
are directly contributing to make the project a success. You dont have
to be working
on the less critical activities when you have most critical ones delaying
and pending.
4.4. Even the larger projects could be easily handled with the help of critical
path method.
You dont have to look at a jumbled and cluttered network; instead,
when you have a
chart in front of you that is organized, you can make sense of
everything and work
more efficiently on all the activities.
4.5. All activities that are directly responsible in making other activities start
should be
given primary attention so a project manager could plan for other
things if there is an
expectancy of delay in certain activities.
4.6. Working with the floats is another great benefit that critical path
method gives to the
project manager. When you know that delay in a certain activity
wouldnt affect your
project much, you could actually take advantage of this flexibility and
work on other
critical activities in the meantime.
5. Disadvantages
Though the technique has more benefits and more industrialists are
benefitting from them, you can t say it doesnt have any disadvantages.

5.1. In a big project, a CPM can become extremely complicated and difficult
to fathom for
the new recruits to the project team.
5.2. If the project is far too bulky and lengthy, the CPM requires software to
monitor the
plan.

21
 5.3. CPM can become ineffective and difficult to manage if it is not well-
defined and
stable.
5.4. It cannot effectively handle sudden changes in the implementation of
the plan on
ground. It is very difficult to redraw the entire CPM chart if the plan of
the project
suddenly changes midway.
5.5. The CPM cannot form and control the schedules of the persons involved
in the
project.
5.6. The allocation of resources cannot be properly monitored.
5.7. The critical path of the CPM of a big project is not always clear. The
project managers
have to spend a lot of time to calculate it carefully.
5.8. The CPM takes longer to identity and to monitor the critical path when
the project is
of big dimension.
5.9. Using CPM, identifying and determining a critical path is difficult when
there are
many other similar duration paths in the project.
6. Key Steps in CPM

6.1. Specify Each Activity

Using the work breakdown structure, you need to identify each activity
(or task) involved in the project. This activity specification list should only
include higher-level activities. When detailed activities are used, the
critical path analysis may become too complex to manage and maintain.

A work breakdown structure breaks down projects into manageable

sections.

The first step is to identify the main deliverables of a project. Then you
can start breaking down the high-level activities into smaller chunks of
work.

You can choose how to display your work breakdown structure. Some
people use a tree structure, while others use lists or tables. An outline is
one of the easiest ways to represent a work breakdown structure.

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 6.2. Establish Dependencies (Activity Sequence)

Some activities will depend on the completion of others. Listing the

immediate predecessors of each activity will help you identify the correct
order. To correctly identify activities and their precedence, ask yourself
these three questions for each activity on your list from step one:

a. Which task should take place before this task happens?

b. Which tasks should be finished at the same time as this task?

c. Which tasks should happen right after this task

6.3. Draw the Network Diagram

Once you have identified the activities and their dependencies, you
can draw the critical path analysis chart (CPA), known as the network
diagram. The network diagram is a visual representation of the order of
your activities based on dependencies.

This critical path diagram used to be drawn by-hand, but there are now
software programs that can create this diagram for you.

6.4. Estimate Activity Completion Time

Using past experience or the knowledge of an experienced team

member, you must now estimate the time required to complete each

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 activity. If you are managing a smaller project, you will most likely
estimate time in days. If you are working with a complex project, you may
have to measure time in weeks.

If you dont feel comfortable using your best-guess estimates, you can
use the 3-point estimation method, which is designed to put more weight
on the most realistic timeframe.

In three-point estimation, you must come up with three time estimates for
every task, based on prior experience or best guesses. The estimation
method is presented in formulas in order to calculate the time duration
more accurately.

a = the best-case estimate

m = the most likely estimate
b = the worst-case estimate

These three values identify what happens in an optimal state, what is the
most likely, and what happens in the worst case scenario.

Once youve identified these values, you can use them in two different
formulas. The first is used to find the Weighted Average, which puts more
weight on the Most Likely value. The formula is as below. E stands for
Estimate, and the 4 and 6 represent the standard method to place more
weight on the most realistic value.

E = (a + 4m + b) / 6

The second way of using these values is known as Triangular Distribution.

The main difference is that this method doesnt put more weight on the
Most Likely value. The form ula is as below. E stands for Estimate, and
the 3 represents the standard method.

E = (a + m + b)/3

6.5. Identify the Critical Path

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 There are two ways
you can now identify the

critical path. You can eyeball your network

diagram and simply identify the longest path
throughout the network -- the longest sequence of
activities on the path. Be sure to look for the longest path in terms of
longest duration in days, not the path with the most boxes or nodes.

You can also identify critical activities with the Forward Pass/Backward
Pass technique, identifying the earliest start and finish times, and the
latest start and finish times for each activity.

If you have multiple critical paths, you will run into network sensitivity. A
project schedule is considered sensitive if the critical path is likely to
change once the project begins. The more critical paths in a project, the
higher the probability of a change in schedule.

6.6. Update the Critical Path Diagram to Show Progress

As the project progresses, you will learn the actual activity completion
times. The network diagram can then be updated to include this
information (rather than continuing to use estimations).

By updating the network diagram as new information emerges, you may

recalculate a different critical path. You will also have a more realistic
view of the project completion due date and will be able to tell if you are
on track or falling behind.

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7. Examples
Activity Activity Description Predeces a m b E
sor T
Hours
A Gathering of materials - 3 6 9 6
B Obtain ethylene by heating heavier A 3 5 7 5
hydrocarbons
C Combine ethylene to make B 1. 3 4. 3
polyethylene 5 5
D Forming polyethylene into a sheet C 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
E Shaping of polyethylene sheet into a D 1 2 3 2
tray
F Cooling of molten steel into strips A 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
G Punching holes into steel strips F 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
H Painting of steel components G 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
I Acquire rubber for wheel A 1. 3 4. 3
5 5
J Heating and molding of rubber into tire I 1. 3 4. 3
shape 5 5
K Cooling of wheel J 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
L Cutting and shaping of lumber into A 1. 3 4. 3
handles 5 5
M Applying varnish to handles L 1 2 3 2
N Assembling of parts E, H, K, M 1 2 3 2
7.1. Example: Proposed Construction of a Wheelbarrow
The manufacturing company must perform the following tasks
before a wheelbarrow is
constructed:

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 Table 7.1

Fig. 7.1

The critical path is the longest sequence of tasks in a project plan that
must be completed on time in order for the project to meet its deadline.
It can be observed by following the path with 0 slack or computing the
path with the longest duration. The critical path on this project is A B
C D E - N.

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 7.2. Example: Manufacturing of a Lawn Mower
The manufacturers have decided to produce a lawn mower and must accomplish
the
Activity Activity Description Predeces a m b E
following
sor T
Hours
tasks:
A Moving materials into plant - 3 5 7 5
B Machine stamping of mower pan A 1. 3 4. 3
5 5
C Creating apertures in mower pan B 0. 1 1. 1
with plasma cutter 5 5
D Welding of baffles C 1 2 3 2
E Powder painting of exposed parts D 0. 1 1. 1
and pan 5 5
F Bending of tubing A 1 2 3 2
G Piercing tubing for mechanical F 1 2 3 2
attachments
H Forming subassemblies A 2 4 6 4
I Bolting of mower pan with drive E, H 1 2 3 2
mechanism
J Securing shift controls I 1 2 3 2
K Fastening of blade and clutch J 0. 1 1. 1
wheels 5 5
L Attaching of handle G, K 0. 1 1. 1
5 5
M Making final set up adjustments L 1 2 3 2
Table 7.2

Table 7.2

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 Figure 7.2

The critical path is the longest sequence of tasks in a project plan that
must be completed on time in order for the project to meet its deadline. It
can be observed by following the path with 0 slack or computing the path
with the longest duration. The critical path on this project is A B C D
E I - J K L M.
7.3. Example: Proposed Construction of a Carousel
The manufacturing company must perform the following tasks before
a carousel is
constructed and supposed that activity durations are not known due to
weather.

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 Table 7.3

Figure 7.3

The critical path is the longest sequence of tasks in a project plan that
must be completed on time in order for the project to meet its deadline. It
can be observed by following the path with 0 slack or computing the path
with the longest duration. The critical path on this project is A B C D
E F- H K L M N.

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