TUGAS 4.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION dengan menggunakan nilai acak

koefisien
c0 2.515517
c1 0.802853
c2 0.010338

d1 1.432788
d2 0.189269
d3 0.001308

Bilangan Z,
Z'
Bilangan Acak dihitung
t=- dikoreksi
N Rand() Acak Antara Terkorek dari
ln(u^2) jika
0-1 si jika persama
u>0,5
u>0,5 an 5.4
u'=1-
persama
O U u;lainnya Z
an 5.5
u'=u
1 0.40870342 0.4087034197 0.408703 1.337734 -0.230477 -0.230477
2 0.9686056 0.9686056042 0.031394 2.631017 -1.861088 1.861088
3 0.23198947 0.2319894734 0.231989 1.709423 -0.732048 -0.732048
4 0.94985348 0.9498534835 0.050147 2.446551 -1.643781 1.643781
5 0.44776404 0.4477640412 0.447764 1.267666 -0.131018 -0.131018
6 0.73840054 0.7384005391 0.261599 1.637645 -0.638088 0.638088
7 0.35216071 0.3521607051 0.352161 1.444761 -0.379044 -0.379044
8 0.35318296 0.3531829629 0.353183 1.442754 -0.376291 -0.376291
9 0.20397777 0.2039777696 0.203978 1.783112 -0.827313 -0.827313
10 0.70920518 0.7092051782 0.290795 1.571711 -0.550674 0.550674
11 0.04721627 0.0472162652 0.047216 2.471039 -1.672822 -1.672822
12 0.28789541 0.2878954052 0.287895 1.578074 -0.559158 -0.559158
13 0.83664684 0.8366468426 0.163353 1.903597 -0.980714 0.980714
14 0.71297003 0.7129700294 0.28703 1.57998 -0.561698 0.561698
15 0.45046583 0.4504658315 0.450466 1.262912 -0.124201 -0.124201
16 0.44778153 0.447781534 0.447782 1.267635 -0.130974 -0.130974
17 0.08970788 0.0897078842 0.089708 2.195995 -1.342762 -1.342762
18 0.01967611 0.019676113 0.019676 2.802981 -2.060913 -2.060913
19 0.96019951 0.960199514 0.0398 2.539242 -1.753386 1.753386
20 0.66434535 0.6643453535 0.335655 1.477615 -0.423908 0.423908
21 0.95411383 0.9541138349 0.045886 2.482576 -1.686483 1.686483
22 0.45256274 0.4525627365 0.452563 1.259229 -0.118914 -0.118914
23 0.5332949 0.5332949033 0.466705 1.234551 -0.083344 0.083344
24 0.94045836 0.9404583617 0.059542 2.375323 -1.558947 1.558947
25 0.64772604 0.6477260396 0.352274 1.444539 -0.378739 0.378739
26 0.21113644 0.2111364355 0.211136 1.763661 -0.802279 -0.802279
27 0.07487279 0.0748727933 0.074873 2.276824 -1.44069 -1.44069
28 0.90390388 0.9039038822 0.096096 2.164443 -1.304303 1.304303
29 0.71121399 0.711213991 0.288786 1.576115 -0.556547 0.556547
30 0.81646513 0.8164651289 0.183535 1.841386 -0.901854 0.901854
31 0.83256824 0.8325682442 0.167432 1.890597 -0.964295 0.964295
32 0.99272251 0.9927225114 0.007277 3.137824 -2.443679 2.443679
33 0.12448134 0.1244813366 0.124481 2.041372 -1.152952 -1.152952
34 0.10680584 0.1068058401 0.106806 2.115062 -1.243839 -1.243839
35 0.22339754 0.223397539 0.223398 1.731359 -0.760529 -0.760529
36 0.54251884 0.5425188363 0.457481 1.250616 -0.106527 0.106527
37 0.53734957 0.5373495702 0.46265 1.241599 -0.093528 0.093528
38 0.48137177 0.4813717661 0.481372 1.209227 -0.046581 -0.046581
39 0.81274527 0.812745269 0.187255 1.830456 -0.887925 0.887925
40 0.65241275 0.6524127504 0.347587 1.453781 -0.391394 0.391394
41 0.72829053 0.7282905346 0.271709 1.614325 -0.607296 0.607296
42 0.71166924 0.7116692382 0.288331 1.577116 -0.557881 0.557881
43 0.94035133 0.9403513279 0.059649 2.374567 -1.558044 1.558044
44 0.03091526 0.0309152619 0.030915 2.636856 -1.867915 -1.867915
45 0.98870503 0.9887050292 0.011295 2.994461 -2.280727 2.280727
46 0.01799773 0.0179977334 0.017998 2.834611 -2.097408 -2.097408
47 0.13208129 0.1320812917 0.132081 2.012132 -1.116659 -1.116659
48 0.87896607 0.8789660695 0.121034 2.055084 -1.169925 1.169925
49 0.71126719 0.7112671865 0.288733 1.576232 -0.556703 0.556703
50 0.46190444 0.4619044402 0.461904 1.242898 -0.095403 -0.095403
51 0.42256789 0.422567885 0.422568 1.312559 -0.194955 -0.194955
52 0.83874264 0.838742639 0.161257 1.910368 -0.989255 0.989255
53 0.23278125 0.2327812452 0.232781 1.707429 -0.729453 -0.729453
54 0.91458378 0.9145837795 0.085416 2.218206 -1.369755 1.369755
55 0.37099332 0.3709933182 0.370993 1.408241 -0.328776 -0.328776
56 0.22560698 0.2256069826 0.225607 1.725666 -0.753147 -0.753147
57 0.91014799 0.9101479903 0.089852 2.195264 -1.341872 1.341872
58 0.0235975 0.0235974959 0.023597 2.737376 -1.984968 -1.984968
59 0.61878497 0.6187849671 0.381215 1.388806 -0.30185 0.30185
60 0.14549432 0.1454943235 0.145494 1.963476 -1.055961 -1.055961
61 0.59235905 0.5923590468 0.407641 1.339678 -0.233211 0.233211
62 0.22925827 0.229258273 0.229258 1.716337 -0.741036 -0.741036
63 0.09476358 0.0947635837 0.094764 2.170885 -1.312166 -1.312166
64 0.03209715 0.0320971512 0.032097 2.62259 -1.85123 -1.85123
65 0.70635871 0.7063587092 0.293641 1.565501 -0.542383 0.542383
66 0.87006109 0.8700610921 0.129939 2.020243 -1.12674 1.12674
67 0.92827707 0.9282770713 0.071723 2.295624 -1.46335 1.46335
68 0.82792603 0.8279260283 0.172074 1.876076 -0.945917 0.945917
69 0.34928102 0.3492810231 0.349281 1.450433 -0.386813 -0.386813
70 0.78557943 0.7855794303 0.214421 1.754888 -0.790962 0.790962
71 0.89706489 0.8970648916 0.102935 2.132443 -1.26516 1.26516
72 0.32784919 0.3278491943 0.327849 1.493453 -0.445422 -0.445422
73 0.67553752 0.6755375239 0.324462 1.50039 -0.454822 0.454822
74 0.51141748 0.5114174819 0.488583 1.196868 -0.028539 0.028539
75 0.3547549 0.3547548993 0.354755 1.439672 -0.372064 -0.372064
76 0.66677217 0.6667721708 0.333228 1.482517 -0.430576 0.430576
77 0.94851085 0.9485108519 0.051489 2.435727 -1.630925 1.630925
 78 0.28539217 0.285392166 0.285392 1.583598 -0.566515 -0.566515
79 0.81686183 0.8168618285 0.183138 1.84256 -0.90335 0.90335
80 0.08580422 0.0858042185 0.085804 2.216162 -1.367274 -1.367274
81 0.69502299 0.6950229872 0.304977 1.541116 -0.509727 0.509727
82 0.24950451 0.2495045057 0.249505 1.6663 -0.675743 -0.675743
83 0.07401595 0.0740159466 0.074016 2.281874 -1.446781 -1.446781
84 0.69222795 0.6922279456 0.307772 1.535185 -0.501759 0.501759
85 0.54830131 0.5483013071 0.451699 1.260746 -0.121092 0.121092
86 0.313948 0.313948004 0.313948 1.522188 -0.484267 -0.484267
87 0.30120973 0.301209733 0.30121 1.54916 -0.520517 -0.520517
88 0.91446661 0.9144666143 0.085533 2.217588 -1.369005 1.369005
89 0.01284731 0.0128473131 0.012847 2.951142 -2.231226 -2.231226
90 0.35580298 0.3558029842 0.355803 1.437622 -0.36925 -0.36925
91 0.06574106 0.0657410606 0.065741 2.333252 -1.508575 -1.508575
92 0.18623842 0.1862384245 0.186238 1.833427 -0.891714 -0.891714
93 0.71024475 0.7102447474 0.289755 1.573988 -0.553711 0.553711
94 0.45713367 0.4571336653 0.457134 1.251223 -0.107402 -0.107402
95 0.34510607 0.3451060733 0.345106 1.4587 -0.398119 -0.398119
96 0.00244837 0.0024483655 0.002448 3.46766 -2.814095 -2.814095
97 0.7079056 0.7079055995 0.292094 1.568871 -0.546884 0.546884
98 0.44318468 0.4431846812 0.443185 1.27575 -0.142588 -0.142588
99 0.61406672 0.6140667197 0.385933 1.379921 -0.289497 0.289497
100 0.69550187 0.6955018685 0.304498 1.542135 -0.511095 0.511095
 V(1)=2U( V(2)=2U( W=
u1 u2 Y Z1
1)-1 2)-1 V1^2+V2^2

0.42048 0.448384 -0.159041 -0.103232 0.035950847 13.60178 -2.16323587

0.825074 0.623509 0.650147 0.247017 0.483708771 1.732897 1.126638
0.463233 0.091358 -0.073534 -0.817285 0.673361584 1.0838 -0.079696
0.873957 0.680401 0.747914 0.360802 0.689553887 1.038325 0.776578
0.809297 0.193933 0.618593 -0.612135 0.757366961 0.856667 0.529928
0.243869 0.074939 -0.512262 -0.850123 0.985121618 0.174451 -0.089365
0.422726 0.254656 -0.154548 -0.490688 0.264660073 3.169449 -0.489832959
0.973154 0.550711 0.946308 0.101421 0.905784281 0.467433 0.442336
0.957533 0.638264 0.915067 0.276528 0.913814485 0.444135 0.406413
0.235527 0.151077 -0.528946 -0.697845 0.766771549 0.832278 -0.440230
0.103177 0.729145 -0.793647 0.45829 0.839904837 0.644549 -0.511544
0.076652 0.403714 -0.846697 -0.192573 0.753979895 0.865485 -0.732803
0.92635 0.727436 0.8527 0.454873 0.934006139 0.382351 0.326031
0.411112 0.764702 -0.177776 0.529403 0.311871891 2.733507 -0.485951
0.519079 0.573514 0.038159 0.147029 0.023073570 18.07484 0.689717
0.846675 0.514289 0.69335 0.028578 0.481550892 1.742113 1.207894
0.689286 0.690175 0.378573 0.38035 0.287983081 2.940293 1.113115
0.627647 0.683645 0.255295 0.36729 0.200077590 4.010519 1.023865
0.484134 0.716598 -0.031731 0.433196 0.188665905 4.204723 -0.133421
0.234253 0.435299 -0.531494 -0.129403 0.299230894 2.839766 -1.509319
0.713635 0.830282 0.42727 0.660564 0.618904157 1.24519 0.532032
0.291426 0.118594 -0.417148 -0.762812 0.755894510 0.860498 -0.358955
0.802611 0.876012 0.605223 0.752024 0.931834039 0.389269 0.235594
0.378045 0.704187 -0.24391 0.408373 0.226260471 3.624349 -0.884014
0.628486 0.147032 0.256973 -0.705936 0.564380159 1.423762 0.365868
0.431037 0.372831 -0.137926 -0.254338 0.083711444 7.698066 -1.061762
0.411479 0.258656 -0.177041 -0.482688 0.264331316 3.172902 -0.561735
0.778872 0.116396 0.557745 -0.767207 0.899685826 0.48476 0.270372
0.238967 0.082714 -0.522067 -0.834573 0.969064759 0.254664 -0.132952
0.449329 0.643972 -0.101342 0.287944 0.093182162 7.137 -0.723278
0.024791 0.494906 -0.950419 -0.010187 0.903399407 0.474244 -0.450730
0.103596 0.222911 -0.792808 -0.554178 0.935658031 0.377037 -0.298918
0.422552 0.099324 -0.154896 -0.801351 0.666156673 1.104366 -0.171062
0.533262 0.524738 0.066523 0.049477 0.006873296 38.0673 2.532360
0.648457 0.123409 0.296914 -0.753181 0.655440176 1.135364 0.337106
0.998835 0.500812 0.997671 0.001625 0.995349482 0.09678 0.096554
0.159757 0.210255 -0.680487 -0.57949 0.798871131 0.749788 -0.510221
0.400641 0.711153 -0.198718 0.422306 0.217831040 3.740698 -0.743344
0.724657 0.360595 0.449313 -0.278811 0.279617844 3.019074 1.356510
0.518866 0.872194 0.037731 0.744388 0.555536664 1.454726 0.054889
0.531905 0.525059 0.06381 0.050118 0.006583514 39.06391 2.492656
0.409995 0.823219 -0.18001 0.646437 0.450284365 1.882519 -0.338872
0.956469 0.534561 0.912938 0.069122 0.838233462 0.648864 0.592373
0.381297 0.220101 -0.237405 -0.559799 0.369736047 2.319921 -0.550761
0.378716 0.659666 -0.242568 0.319332 0.160811966 4.767457 -1.156432
0.165463 0.865133 -0.669073 0.730266 0.980947384 0.198041 -0.132504
0.304196 0.220301 -0.391607 -0.559397 0.466281403 1.809021 -0.708426
0.903108 0.379327 0.806217 -0.241345 0.708233386 0.987017 0.795750
0.606219 0.920335 0.212438 0.84067 0.751856319 0.871024 0.185038
0.455836 0.227096 -0.088327 -0.545807 0.305707198 2.784484 -0.245946
0.699962 0.805266 0.399924 0.610533 0.532689466 1.537747 0.614983
0.658422 0.417111 0.316843 -0.165779 0.127872302 5.671719 1.797047
0.144694 0.325946 -0.710612 -0.348108 0.626148821 1.22286 -0.868979
0.337795 0.028391 -0.32441 -0.943218 0.994901469 0.101368 -0.032885
0.747502 0.075682 0.495005 -0.848637 0.965214483 0.270854 0.134074
0.301895 0.050551 -0.39621 -0.898898 0.964999444 0.271735 -0.107664
0.88023 0.33572 0.760461 -0.32856 0.686252416 1.047517 0.796596
0.805426 0.849865 0.610852 0.699729 0.862761295 0.584976 0.357334
0.667599 0.053852 0.335199 -0.892297 0.908551538 0.459471 0.154014
0.405211 0.923237 -0.189578 0.846473 0.752456798 0.869457 -0.164829
0.294554 0.763129 -0.410892 0.526257 0.445779019 1.903893 -0.782295
0.632178 0.283349 0.264355 -0.433301 0.257633614 3.244728 0.857761
0.56276 0.652215 0.12552 0.304431 0.108433494 6.401297 0.803493
0.082624 0.478423 -0.834752 -0.043153 0.698672385 1.013135 -0.845716
0.202428 0.328611 -0.595144 -0.342779 0.471693023 1.784961 -1.062308
0.824558 0.312774 0.649115 -0.374451 0.561563986 1.433555 0.930542
0.206215 0.828243 -0.587569 0.656485 0.776210383 0.807923 -0.474711
0.281831 0.143434 -0.436338 -0.713131 0.698947013 1.01238 -0.441740
0.760401 0.81189 0.520802 0.623779 0.660334796 1.121144 0.583893
0.450547 0.005127 -0.098906 -0.989746 0.989379471 0.146915 -0.014531
0.158489 0.684823 -0.683021 0.369645 0.603155517 1.294778 -0.884361
0.141315 0.752516 -0.71737 0.505032 0.769676837 0.82477 -0.591665
0.569912 0.985466 0.139825 0.970931 0.962258642 0.282775 0.039539
0.438966 0.020551 -0.122068 -0.958898 0.934385946 0.381133 -0.046524
0.934658 0.54587 0.869315 0.091741 0.764124997 0.839128 0.729467
0.292768 0.429402 -0.414465 -0.141195 0.191717242 4.151016 -1.720450
0.622903 0.596563 0.245806 0.193126 0.097718026 6.899246 1.695874
0.106494 0.666475 -0.787013 0.33295 0.730244219 0.92791 -0.730277
0.95842 0.541358 0.916839 0.082717 0.847435876 0.625048 0.573068
0.22762 0.531991 -0.54476 0.063983 0.300857232 2.825712 -1.539335
0.570805 0.347583 0.141611 -0.304834 0.112977144 6.213048 0.879835
0.313128 0.213434 -0.373745 -0.573131 0.468164407 1.800604 -0.672966
0.447279 0.881898 -0.105442 0.763795 0.594500897 1.322678 -0.139466
0.469285 0.418858 -0.061431 -0.162285 0.030110025 15.25363 -0.937041
0.526902 0.158376 0.053803 -0.683248 0.469722879 1.793675 0.096505
0.238634 0.859249 -0.522732 0.718497 0.789487333 0.77382 -0.404501
0.266321 0.22828 -0.467359 -0.543439 0.513750595 1.610207 -0.752544
0.953542 0.579102 0.907084 0.158204 0.847829842 0.624025 0.566043
0.345221 0.224553 -0.309557 -0.550894 0.399310356 2.144297 -0.663783
0.15394 0.298613 -0.692119 -0.402773 0.641255354 1.177202 -0.814764
0.649699 0.918179 0.299399 0.836359 0.789135836 0.774721 0.231950
0.969628 0.350873 0.939257 -0.298254 0.971158488 0.245498 0.230586
0.850869 0.54648 0.701739 0.09296 0.501078624 1.660729 1.165397
0.162666 0.672827 -0.674667 0.345653 0.574651841 1.388558 -0.936814
0.479537 0.772077 -0.040926 0.544155 0.297779316 2.85241 -0.116738
0.859654 0.46847 0.719309 -0.063059 0.521381496 1.580588 1.136931
0.23043 0.618252 -0.53914 0.236504 0.346605627 2.472644 -1.333101
0.425804 0.587272 -0.148392 0.174544 0.052485645 10.59743 -1.572570
0.529328 0.120555 0.058655 -0.758889 0.579352980 1.372706 0.080516
0.400041 0.039908 -0.199917 -0.920184 0.886706009 0.520778 -0.104113
 Z2 L1 = +Z1* L2 =+Z2*

-1.4041424 0.0263 0.0467 -0.0747231 -0.0392734

0.4280556 0.0789140 0.0462902
-0.8857732 0.0225782 -0.0150656
0.3746296 0.0625662 0.0437952
-0.5243955 0.0510477 0.0018107
-0.1483048 0.0221267 0.0193742
-1.5552111 0.0034248 -0.0463284
0.0474077 0.0469571 0.0285139
0.1228157 0.0452795 0.0320355
-0.5808012 0.0057412 -0.0008234
0.2953906 0.0024109 0.0400947
-0.1666690 -0.0079219 0.0185166
0.1739211 0.0415256 0.0344221
1.4471272 0.0036061 0.0938808
2.6575224 0.0585098 0.1504063
0.0497857 0.0827087 0.0286250
1.1183393 0.0782825 0.0785264
1.4730243 0.0741145 0.0950902
1.8214703 0.0200692 0.1113627
-0.3674740 -0.0441852 0.0091390
0.8225276 0.0511459 0.0647120
-0.6563980 0.0095368 -0.0043538
0.2927394 0.0373023 0.0399709
1.4800865 -0.0149835 0.0954200
-1.0050846 0.0433860 -0.0206375
-1.9579123 -0.0232843 -0.0651345
-1.5315215 0.0000670 -0.0452221
-0.3719114 0.0389264 0.0089317
-0.2125359 0.0200912 0.0163746
 2.0550589 -0.0074771 0.1222713
-0.0048313 0.0052509 0.0260744
-0.2089456 0.0123405 0.0165422
-0.8849851 0.0183114 -0.0150288
1.8834476 0.1445612 0.1142570
-0.8551351 0.0420428 -0.0136348
0.0001572 0.0308091 0.0263073
-0.4344947 0.0024727 0.0060091
1.5797184 -0.0084142 0.1000729
-0.8417505 0.0896490 -0.0130097
1.0828798 0.0288633 0.0768705
1.9578153 0.1427070 0.1177300
1.2169297 0.0104747 0.0831306
0.0448506 0.0539638 0.0283945
-1.2986894 0.0005795 -0.0343488
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Gambar Histogram dan Profil komulatif dari nilai Lendutan +Z1x

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Gambar Histogram dan Profil komulatif dari nilai Lendutan +Z2x