The Erlang B Formula

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The Erlang B Formula

The Erlang B formula can also be used to determine how many phone lines
are needed to attain a desired Grade of Service, given a certain level of
traffic. The Erlang B formula and some examples are described below; you
can also use the Erlang B calculators at left.

The first calculator tells you how many phone lines are needed if you input
the traffic and desired probability of blocked calls. The second calculator tells
you the probability that a call is dropped if you input the traffic and number
of lines.

If the Erlangs of traffic is E and the number of trunk lines is M, then the well-
known Erlang B formula for the probability that a call is dropped, the GoS, is
given by the equation

GoS = (EM/M!)/(n=0
M En/n!).

Example 1: Suppose a call center has 10 phone lines, receives 480 calls per
day, and the average duration of a call is 15 minutes. Since 15 minutes =
1/96 days, the number of Erlangs is (480)(1/96) = 5. (Computing Erlangs
requires that call frequency and call duration be in the same units of time.
You will get the same number no matter which units you use.) Thus, the
probability that a call is blocked is

GoS = (510/10!)/(10
n=0 5 /n!) = 0.0183846.
n

This means about 1.84% of the calls get dropped. As M becomes large,
calculating GoS by hand becomes unwieldy, thus Erlang calculators must be
used.

Example 2: Recursive iterations can be used to figure M from a given value


of E and a desired value of GoS. Suppose that a call center receives 300 calls
per hour, the average call duration is 5 minutes, and the center would like a
GoS value of 0.025.

First, we calculate the number of Erlangs as (300)(1/12) = 25, since 5


minutes is 1/12 of an hour. Then using an iterative procedure similar to
guess-and-check, we find that the call center must have a minimum of 33
phone lines to achieve this Grade of Service.

If the system places calls in a queue rather than drops them, you must use
the Erlang C Formula instead. If a significant portion of dropped calls retry,
then use the Extended Erlang B Formula, which factors in a recall rate.
And for systems with a finite source of callers, use the Engset Blocking
Function.

When the probability is low, i.e., less than .05, then the call center is efficient
at handling traffic. When the GoS is high, i.e., greater than 0.1, then the call
center has a high rate of annoyed and impatient callers!

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