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    Bayesian Net Example

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    The document describes a Bayesian network with five nodes: A, B, C, D, and E. It provides the conditional probabilities between the nodes and works through several examples of computing probabilities in the network, such as the probability of D=T, the probability of D=F and C=T, and the probability of A=T given C=T and E=T.

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    Bayesian Net Example

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    nour
    75 views4 pages
    The document describes a Bayesian network with five nodes: A, B, C, D, and E. It provides the conditional probabilities between the nodes and works through several examples of computing probabilities in the network, such as the probability of D=T, the probability of D=F and C=T, and the probability of A=T given C=T and E=T.

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    The document describes a Bayesian network with five nodes: A, B, C, D, and E. It provides the conditional probabilities between the nodes and works through several examples of computing probabilities in the network, such as the probability of D=T, the probability of D=F and C=T, and the probability of A=T given C=T and E=T.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    75 views4 pages

    Bayesian Net Example

    Uploaded by

    nour
    The document describes a Bayesian network with five nodes: A, B, C, D, and E. It provides the conditional probabilities between the nodes and works through several examples of computing probabilities in the network, such as the probability of D=T, the probability of D=F and C=T, and the probability of A=T given C=T and E=T.

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    3/18/2018 Bayesian Net Example

    Bayesian Net Example


    Consider the following Bayesian network:

    Thus, the independence expressed in this Bayesian net are that


    A and B are (absolutely) independent.
    C is independent of B given A.
    D is independent of C given A and B.
    E is independent of A, B, and D given C.

    Suppose that the net further records the following probabilities:

    Prob(A=T) = 0.3
    Prob(B=T) = 0.6
    Prob(C=T|A=T) = 0.8
    Prob(C=T|A=F) = 0.4
    Prob(D=T|A=T,B=T) = 0.7
    Prob(D=T|A=T,B=F) = 0.8
    Prob(D=T|A=F,B=T) = 0.1
    Prob(D=T|A=F,B=F) = 0.2
    Prob(E=T|C=T) = 0.7
    Prob(E=T|C=F) = 0.2

    Some sample computations:

    Prob(D=T)

    P(D=T) =

    P(D=T,A=T,B=T) + P(D=T,A=T,B=F) + P(D=T,A=F,B=T) + P(D=T,A=F,B=F) =

    https://cs.nyu.edu/faculty/davise/ai/bayesnet.html 1/4
    3/18/2018 Bayesian Net Example

    P(D=T|A=T,B=T) P(A=T,B=T) + P(D=T|A=T,B=F) P(A=T,B=F) +


    P(D=T|A=F,B=T) P(A=F,B=T) + P(D=T|A=F,B=F) P(A=F,B=F) =
    (since A and B are independent absolutely)

    P(D=T|A=T,B=T) P(A=T) P(B=T) + P(D=T|A=T,B=F) P(A=T) P(B=F) +


    P(D=T|A=F,B=T) P(A=F) P(B=T) + P(D=T|A=F,B=F) P(A=F) P(B=F) =

    0.7*0.3*0.6 + 0.8*0.3*0.4 + 0.1*0.7*0.6 + 0.2*0.7*0.4 = 0.32

    Prob(D=F,C=T)

    P(D=F,C=T) =

    P(D=F,C=T,A=T,B=T) + P(D=F,C=T,A=T,B=F) +
    P(D=F,C=T,A=F,B=T) + P(D=F,C=T,A=F,B=F) =

    P(D=F,C=T|A=T,B=T) P(A=T,B=T) + P(D=F,C=T|A=T,B=F) P(A=T,B=F) +


    P(D=F,C=T|A=F,B=T) P(A=F,B=T) + P(D=F,C=T|A=F,B=F) P(A=F,B=F) =
    (since C and D are independent given A and B)

    P(D=F|A=T,B=T) P(C=T|A=T,B=T) P(A=T,B=T) + P(D=F|A=T,B=F) P(C=T|A=T,B=F)


    P(A=T,B=F) +
    P(D=F|A=F,B=T) P(C=T|A=F,B=T) P(A=F,B=T) + P(D=F|A=F,B=F) P(C=T|A=F,B=F)
    P(A=F,B=F) =
    (since C is independent of B given A and A and B are independent absolutely)

    P(D=F|A=T,B=T) P(C=T|A=T) P(A=T) P(B=T) + P(D=F|A=T,B=F) P(C=T|A=T)


    P(A=T) P(B=F) + P(D=F|A=F,B=T) P(C=T|A=F) P(A=F) P(B=T) + P(D=F|A=F,B=F)
    P(C=T|A=F) P(A=F) P(B=F) =

    0.3*0.8*0.3*0.6 + 0.2*0.8*0.3*0.4 + 0.9*0.4*0.7*0.6 + 0.8*0.4*0.7*0.4 = 0.3032

    Prob(A=T|C=T)

    P(A=T|C=T) = P(C=T|A=T)P(A=T) / P(C=T).

    Now P(C=T) = P(C=T,A=T) + P(C=T,A=F) =


    P(C=T|A=T)P(A=T) + P(C=T|A=F)P(A=F) =
    0.8*0.3+ 0.4*0.7 = 0.52

    So P(C=T|A=T)P(A=T) / P(C=T) = 0.8*0.3/0.52= 0.46.

    Prob(A=T|D=F)
    https://cs.nyu.edu/faculty/davise/ai/bayesnet.html 2/4
    3/18/2018 Bayesian Net Example

    P(A=T|D=F) =

    P(D=F|A=T) P(A=T)/P(D=F).

    Now P(D=F) = 1-P(D=T) = 0.68 from the first question above.

    P(D=F|A=T) = P(D=T,B=T|A=T) + P(D=F,B=F|A=T) =

    P(D=F|B=T,A=T) P(B=T|A=T) + P(D=F|B=F,A=T) P(B=F|A=T) =


    (since B is independent of A)

    P(D=F|B=T,A=T) P(B=T) + P(D=F|B=F,A=T) P(B=F) = 0.3*0.6 + 0.2*0.4 = 0.26.


    So P(A=T|D=F) = P(D=F|A=T) P(A=T)/P(D=F) = 0.26 * 0.3 / 0.68 = 0.115

    Prob(A=T,D=T|B=F).

    P(A=T,D=T|B=F) =

    P(D=T|A=T,B=F) P(A=T|B=F) =
    (since A and B are independent)

    P(D=T|A=T,B=F) P(A=T) = 0.8*0.3 = 0.24.

    Prob(C=T | A=F, E=T)

    Prob(C=T | A=F, E=T) = (By Bayes' law)

    Prob(E=T|C=T,A=F) * Prob(C=T|A=F) / Prob(E=T|A=F) = (since E is independent of A


    given C)

    Prob(E=T|C=T) * Prob(C=T|A=F) / Prob(E=T|A=F).

    Now Prob(E=T|A=F) = Prob(E=T,C=T|A=F) + Prob(E=T,C=F|A=F) =

    Prob(E=T|C=T,A=F) Prob(C=T|A=F) + Prob(E=T|C=F,A=F) Prob(C=F|A=F) = (since E


    is independent of A given C)

    Prob(E=T|C=T) * Prob(C=T|A=F) + Prob(E=T|C=F) * Prob(C=F|A=F).

    So we have
    Prob(C=T | A=F, E=T) =
    Prob(E=T|C=T) * Prob(C=T|A=F) / (Prob(E=T|C=T) * Prob(C=T|A=F) + Prob(E=T|C=F)
    * Prob(C=F|A=F)) =
    https://cs.nyu.edu/faculty/davise/ai/bayesnet.html 3/4
    3/18/2018 Bayesian Net Example

    0.7*0.4 / (0.7 * 0.4 + 0.2 * 0.6) = 0.7

    https://cs.nyu.edu/faculty/davise/ai/bayesnet.html 4/4

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