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    Bayes Theorem For Data Science Professionals 1598272603

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    Bayes' theorem allows you to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain evidence or conditions. It extends the concept of conditional probability by allowing you to calculate the probability of a condition given evidence (P(B|A)), if you know the probability of the evidence given the condition (P(A|B)), as well as the overall probabilities (P(A) and P(B)). The formula is: P(B|A) = P(A|B) * P(B) / P(A). The document provides examples of using Bayes' theorem to calculate probabilities in situations involving medical testing and spam detection.

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    Bayes Theorem For Data Science Professionals 1598272603

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    Bayes' theorem allows you to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain evidence or conditions. It extends the concept of conditional probability by allowing you to calculate the probability of a condition given evidence (P(B|A)), if you know the probability of the evidence given the condition (P(A|B)), as well as the overall probabilities (P(A) and P(B)). The formula is: P(B|A) = P(A|B) * P(B) / P(A). The document provides examples of using Bayes' theorem to calculate probabilities in situations involving medical testing and spam detection.

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    Bayes' theorem allows you to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain evidence or conditions. It extends the concept of conditional probability by allowing you to calculate the probability of a condition given evidence (P(B|A)), if you know the probability of the evidence given the condition (P(A|B)), as well as the overall probabilities (P(A) and P(B)). The formula is: P(B|A) = P(A|B) * P(B) / P(A). The document provides examples of using Bayes' theorem to calculate probabilities in situations involving medical testing and spam detection.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as pdf or txt
    25 views5 pages

    Bayes Theorem For Data Science Professionals 1598272603

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    「瞳」你分享
    Bayes' theorem allows you to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain evidence or conditions. It extends the concept of conditional probability by allowing you to calculate the probability of a condition given evidence (P(B|A)), if you know the probability of the evidence given the condition (P(A|B)), as well as the overall probabilities (P(A) and P(B)). The formula is: P(B|A) = P(A|B) * P(B) / P(A). The document provides examples of using Bayes' theorem to calculate probabilities in situations involving medical testing and spam detection.

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    Bayes’ Theorem for Data Science Professionals


    Bayes Theorem is the extension of Conditional probability. Conditional probability helps us to
    determine the probability of A given B, denoted by P(A|B). So Bayes’ theorem says if we know
    P(A|B) then we can determine P(B|A), given that P(A) and P(B) are known to us.
    In this post I am concentrating on Bayes’ theorem assuming you have good understanding of
    Conditional probability. In case you want to revise your concepts, you may refer my previous post
    on Conditional probability with examples.

    Formula derivation:
    From conditional probability we know that
     P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
     P(A and B) = P(B) * P(A|B) --------------[1]

    Similarly
     P(B|A) = P(B and A)/P(A) = P(A and B)/P(A) [In Joint Probability order does not matter]
     P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A) --------------[2]
    From equation [1] and [2],
     P(B) * P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A)
     P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A) / P(B)
    Which mean if we know P(A|B) then we can easily determine P(B|A) and vice versa.
    Assuming we know the total probabilities P(A) and P(B).
    More Generalized Definition:

    Let A1, A2, A3… Ak be a collection of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events with probability
    P(Ai), I = 1, 2, 3…k. Then for any event B for which P(B) > 0
    P(Ai|B) = P(Ai and B)/P(B)
    = P(B|Ai)*P(Ai)/∑[P(B|Ai)*P(Ai)

    Below is the tree representation of the Bayes’ Theorem.


    Now let’s solve some example to get a feeling of Bayes’ theorem.

    Example 1

    Technicians regularly make repairs when breakdowns occur on an automated production


    line. Janak, who services 20% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in
    20.Tarun, who services 60% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 10.
    Gautham, who services 15% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 10
    and Prasad, who services 5% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in
    20. For the next problem with the production line diagnosed as being due to an initial
    repair that was incomplete, what is the probability that this initial repair was made by
    Janak?
    Example 2 Clinical trials
    Epidemiologists claim that probability of breast cancer among Caucasian women in their mid-50s
    is 0.005. An established test identified people who had breast cancer and those that were
    healthy. A new mammography test in clinical trials has a probability of 0.85 for detecting cancer
    correctly. In women without breast cancer, it has a chance of 0.925 for a negative result. If a 55-
    year-old Caucasian woman tests positive for breast cancer, what is the probability that she in fact
    has breast cancer?
    Solution:
    Write what is given:

    P(Cance) = 0.005
    P(Test Positive | Cancer) = 0.85
    P(Test Neg|No cancer) = 0.925
    P(Cancer|Test Positive)= P(Cancer) * P(Test Positive | Cancer) / P(Test Positive)

    Probability Table for the given question

    Probability of having Cancer Test being Positive Test being Negative


    or not
    Cancer 0.005 0.005*0.85 = 0.00425 0.005*0.15 = 0.00075
    No Cancer 0.995 0.995*0.075 = 0.074625 0.995*0.925 = 0.920375
    Total 1.00 0.078875 0.921125
    Example 3
    SpamAssassin works by having users train the system. It looks for patterns in the words in emails
    marked as spam by the user. For example, it may have learned that the word “free” appears in
    20% of the mails marked as spam. Assuming 0.1% of non-spam mail includes the word “free” and
    50% of all mails received by the user are spam, find the probability that a mail is spam if the word
    “free” appears in it.
    Data Given:

     P(Free | Spam) = 0.20


     P(Free | Non Spam) = 0.001
     P(Spam) = 0.50 => P(Non Spam) = 0.50
     P(Spam | Free) = ?

    Using Bayes’ Theorem:


     P(Spam | Free) = P(Spam) * P(Free | Spam) / P(Free)
     P(Spam | Free) = 0.50 * 0.20 / (0.50 * 0.20 + 0.50 * 0.001)
     P(Spam | Free) = 0.995

    Now visualize using probability tree:

    Thank You
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