Advance Monthly Sales For Retail and Food Services, June 2019
Advance Monthly Sales For Retail and Food Services, June 2019
Advance Monthly Sales For Retail and Food Services, June 2019
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, June 2019
Release Number: CB19-99
Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales estimates were revised on June 25, 2019 based on the results of the
2017 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the Service Annual Survey. The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and
Food Services showing revised estimates can be found on our website at
https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/benchmark/2019/html/annrev19.html.
July 16, 2019 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following advance estimates of U.S. retail and
food services sales for June 2019:
May 2019
$517.7 billion 0.4% 0.5
(revised)
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide
an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the
United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,500
employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Advance sales estimates are
computed using a link relative estimator. For each detailed industry, we compute a ratio of current-to-
previous month weighted sales using data from units for which we have obtained usable responses for
both the current and previous month. For each detailed industry, the advance total sales estimates for the
current month is computed by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous
month (derived from the larger MRTS) at the appropriate industry level. Total estimates for broader
industries are computed as the sum of the detailed industry estimates. The link relative estimate is used
because imputation is not performed for most nonrespondents in MARTS. For a limited number of
nonresponding companies that have influential effects on the estimates, sales may be estimated based on
historical performance of that company. The monthly estimates are benchmarked to the annual survey
estimates from the Annual Retail Trade Survey once available. The estimates are adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be
found on the Census Bureau website at: <www.census.gov/retail>.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error
and nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a
complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error
occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors
(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(S) Estimate does not meet publication standards because of high sampling variability (coefficient of variation is greater than 30%), poor response quality
(total quantity response rate is less than 50%), or other concerns about the estimate's quality.
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics
(2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail
(3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
(4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, July 16, 2019. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on
confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
<www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>.
Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
and administrative records.)
Percent Change1
Apr. 2019
Jun. 2019 Advance May 2019 Preliminary through
NAICS Kind of Business from -- from -- Jun. 2019 from --
code Jan. 2019 Apr. 2018
May 19 Jun. 2018 Apr. 2019 May 18 through through
(p) (r) (r) (r) Mar. 2019 Jun. 2018
Retail & food services,
total ………………………………..…………..………….. 0.4 3.4 0.4 2.9 1.8 3.4
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ….. 0.4 3.3 0.4 2.8 1.7 3.3
Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………………….0.7 3.9 0.5 3.0 1.7 3.5
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts &
gasoline stations) ……………………….………….. 0.7 3.8 0.5 3.0 1.5 3.5
Retail ………………………..………..………….. 0.4 3.3 0.3 2.7 1.7 3.2
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers ………………….. 0.7 4.1 0.7 3.3 2.4 3.5
4411, 4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers … 0.8 4.1 0.7 3.2 2.5 3.4
442 Furniture & home furn. stores ………………….. 0.5 0.8 -0.1 0.2 2.0 -0.2
443 Electronics & appliance stores …….………….. -0.3 -5.0 0.8 -4.5 -0.8 -5.2
444 Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers………………………………….. 0.5 -2.5 -1.5 -1.7 -3.4 -0.9
445 Food & beverage stores………………………….. 0.5 2.9 0.1 2.3 1.1 2.5
4451 Grocery stores …………………….………….. 0.5 3.1 0.2 2.6 1.1 2.7
446 Health & personal care stores ………………….. 0.5 5.5 0.9 3.5 1.5 4.5
447 Gasoline stations ……………………..………….. -2.8 -1.7 -0.8 1.8 3.5 1.6
448 Clothing & clothing accessories
stores ……………………….……………………..………….. 0.5 -0.9 -0.2 -2.9 0.8 -1.1
451 Sporting goods, hobby, musical
instrument, & book stores ……………………….. 0.0 -3.3 -0.1 -6.6 1.5 -5.5
452 General merchandise stores…………………….. 0.2 2.5 0.2 1.1 1.5 2.2
4521 Department stores ………………………. -1.1 -5.2 -0.6 -6.7 -1.1 -5.9
453 Miscellaneous store retailers ……….………….. 0.6 3.2 0.8 1.6 3.8 2.6
454 Nonstore retailers …………………….………….. 1.7 13.4 1.7 12.1 3.5 11.9
722 Food services & drinking places ………….. 0.9 4.0 1.0 4.2 2.5 4.6
(1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, July 16, 2019. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability.
Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
<www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>.
Table 3. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability and Revision to Advance Estimates June 2019
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey and Monthly Retail Trade Survey)
Median standard error(1) for Revision for month-
Median Percent change to-month change(2)
NAICS Code Kind of Business CV (1) for Previous Mo. Previous Qtr. Current Mo. Median
Current Mo. to to to same Average absolute
(%) Current Mo. Current Qtr. Mo. Last Yr. revision revision
Retail & food services,
total ………………..……………………………………… 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ……….. 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3
Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………………….0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts &
gasoline stations) ……………………………… 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2
Retail, total …..……………………………………….. 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers ………………. 1.2 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.5
4411, 4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers ………… 1.2 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.5
442 Furniture & home furn. stores………………. 2.2 1.3 0.8 1.7 0.0 0.5
443 Electronics & appliance stores ………………………….. 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 -0.3 0.7
444 Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers………………………………………… 1.4 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.5
445 Food & beverage stores………………………………. 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3
4451 Grocery stores ………………………………. 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.3
446 Health & personal care stores ……………… 1.9 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.3
447 Gasoline stations ……………………………………… 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 -0.1 0.5
448 Clothing & clothing accessories
stores …………………………………………………… 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.6
451 Sporting goods, hobby, musical
instrument, & book stores ………………..…. 3.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 -0.4 0.7
452 General merchandise stores………………… 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3
4521 Department stores …………………………… 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
453 Miscellaneous store retailers …………………. 3.8 2.1 1.5 2.3 0.6 1.2
454 Nonstore retailers ………………………………….. 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.4
722 Food services & drinking places ……………… 3.5 0.9 0.7 2.0 0.2 0.3
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading day variation. Medians are based
on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the
same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most
recent 12 months.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, July 16, 2019. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error,
nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at <www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>.
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