Booklet-Profiting With Futures Options PDF
Booklet-Profiting With Futures Options PDF
FUTURES OPTIONS
David L. Caplan
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 5
I. THE BASICS OF OPTION TRADING 9
Option Strike Price 9
Expiration 11
Volatility 11
II. WHEN TO USE OPTIONS 15
The Trading Edge 15
When to Buy Options 16
When to Sell Options 17
When to Use Options with Futures 18
III. OPTION SPREAD STRATEGIES 19
Option Strategies that Provide the Trader with a
Significant Advantage 20
IV. USING NEUTRAL OPTION POSITIONS 22
V. THE “FREE TRADE” 25
VI. THE “RATIO SPREAD” 27
VII. THE MOST OVERLOOKED OPTION
BUYING STRATEGIES (DON’T TRADE
ANOTHER FUTURES CONTRACT UNTIL
YOU READ THIS!) 30
The In-the-Money Debit Spread 30
Option Straddle Purchase 31
VIII. THE MOST OVERLOOKED OPTION SELLING
STRATEGIES 34
Covered Call—Additional Income; No Risk or Margin 34
Calendar Option Strategy—Take Advantage of
Disparities in Futures and Options 35
CONCLUSION 37
APPENDICES
1. Common Option Strategies for All Markets 38
2. Neutral Option Spread Strategies 41
3. Option Strategy Summary 43
4. Glossary of Option Terms 44
3
INTRODUCTION
Options provide one of the most overlooked opportunities avail-
able to traders today. Properly used, options provide significant ad-
vantages for all traders; however, most traders tend to misuse them.
New traders often use options solely to limit risk, in which case
they only buy them. They do little investigation to determine whether
the option was relatively “undervalued” or “overvalued,” or which
strike price or month was the best. Typically, the conversation be-
tween a trader and his broker goes something like this:
5
even if the market moves in your favor!
There are three objectives that we have when trading options:
“NEUTRAL” POSITIONS THAT HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF
PROFIT, OR SITUATIONS THAT HAVE IN THE PAST ALWAYS LED
TO EXPLOSIVE MARKET MOVES, PROVIDING US WITH RISK/
REWARDS OF 20-1 OR MORE!
FUTURES CHARTS
COURTESY FUTURESOURCE
(800) 621-2628
Figure 1
6
2. USING OPTION PURCHASES IN CONSOLIDATING MARKETS
IN COMBINATION WITH LOW OPTION VOLATILITY LEVELS
TO PRODUCE TRADES THAT CAN HAVE A 20-1 OR MORE
PROFIT TO RISK RATIO!
7
FUTURES CHARTS
COURTESY FUTURESOURCE
(800) 621-2628
Monthly Gold
8
Figure 2
CHAPTER I
THE BASICS OF OPTION TRADING
There are two types of options: calls and puts. A call option gives the
option buyer the right to buy the underlying asset at a specified price (the
strike price) within a certain time. It obligates the option seller to sell that
asset at the strike price before the expiration date, should the call buyer
exercise his right. Conversely, a put option gives the option buyer the right
to sell the underlying futures at a specified price within a certain time, and
obligates the seller to take delivery at the strike price on or before the
expiration date if the put buyer exercises his right. (Although the examples
in this book refer to futures options, the principles apply to other option
markets also).
All option transactions are opened either by buying or selling a call or
put.
The price (premium) that the option buyer must pay for an option is
9
determined by several factors. One is the strike price of the option; for
example, if gold is trading at $320 an ounce, an investor who is bullish on
gold could buy a call option at a strike price of $310, $320, or $330 an ounce.
A $310 call option is “in-the-money,” that is, the strike price is lower than
the market price. This is the most expensive of the options in this example.
The $320 strike price is “at-the-money” (close to the market), the second
most expensive option. The $330 option is the “out-of-the-money” and is
the least expensive of these options. The farther “out-of-the-money” an
option is, the less expensive it is, because it is less likely to have any real
(intrinsic) value before expiration.
In our example, let’s say the December $310 call costs $1500; the $320
call costs $1000; and the $330 call costs $700. If, at the expiration of the
December gold option, gold is trading at $330 an ounce, the $310 option
would be worth $2,000* (gold options are for 100 oz. contracts) and thereby
have a profit of $500* ($2,000 value minus $1,500 we paid for the option);
the $320 option would be worth $1000 and our investor would break even;
and the $330 call option buyer would lose his entire $700* investment.
Although the price of gold has risen $10 dollars, his option still lost money,
because the price of gold did not exceed the price he paid for the call.
On the other hand, the seller of the $330 call was wrong in his price
prediction for gold, but he still profited on this sale; thus, you can be right in
your prediction of market direction and still lose money! How is this pos-
sible? There are two reasons for this.
10
x
FUTURES CHARTS
COURTESY FUTURESOURCE
(800) 621-2628
E
3 2 Months 1
Figure 3
Option time premium declines slowly when there is a long time remaining until expiration.
As expiration approaches, the disintegration accelerates.
Expiration
Volatility
FUTURES CHARTS
COURTESY FUTURESOURCE
(800) 621-2628
Figure 4
When volatility is relatively low, a trader should look for option buying
strategies, as the market is quite likely to make a strong move. When option
volatility is high, option selling strategies should be considered to take
advantage of the relatively overvalued premiums.
An overlooked area is the difference in volatility between different
months and strike prices of options. Often, premiums of out-of-the-money
options can be distorted greatly; for example, in April-May 1994, soybean
ratio spreads provided a high probability of profit because the volatility for
the out-of-the-money calls was double the volatility of the at-the-money
calls. This scenario can lead to significant opportunities. When options
approach expiration, volatility for all the strike prices tends to equalize. In
this instance, if you purchase the most fairly priced calls (near the money),
and sell the most overvalued calls (out-of-the-money), you could expect the
options sold to lose premium faster as the market moves in either direction.
Even if the market were to move higher (unless making a straight-up vertical
move), this spread would also work as the nearer-to-the-money option would
12
gain in value faster than the already overpriced out-of-the-money options.
Another overlooked characteristic of volatility is that it tends to drop
gradually, then level off; however, volatility increases can be characterized
by very sharp changes driving option premiums to extremely high levels.
These events occur rarely, but when they do, they can be very damaging to
those holding short option positions. An example of this was the volatility
increase in many stocks at the beginning of the Gulf War. Oil volatility
doubled, while other markets such as gold, bonds, and currencies increased
20% or more. Even in seemingly unrelated markets such as cattle, volatility
increased dramatically.
Figure 5
Quickly rising volatility in crude oil caused option premiums to expand to very “overvalued”
levels.
Changes in volatility affect the premium levels in options that are going
to be purchased, as well as those already purchased or sold. An example of
this is crude oil and the S&P 500 option markets where volatility has ranged
between 20% to more than 100%.
With high volatility, if one were to purchase an out-of-the-money option,
he would need a substantial price rise before that option would be profitable
at expiration. Both the expense of the purchase price of the option and time
value would be working severely against him; however, with volatility at
lower levels, this option would not only cost much less, but it would also
require a smaller move for the position to be profitable. This is because,
many times as prices begin to rise, volatility also increases, thereby increasing
13
the premium of the option purchased.
Option volatility can also alert the trader in advance to significant market
moves. When option volatility is at low levels, there is a high probability that
a large move is about to occur. Often, when a contract is very quiet, traders
seemingly “fall asleep,” not expecting anything to happen. Of course, this is
exactly when everything explodes!
Figure 6
Again, in this case, historically low option volatility provided an advance indication of an
impending breakout. (We wait for the market to tell us which way it wants to go before
jumping on board!)
By using limited risk option net and spread positions, a trader may greatly
reduce his trading risks. In such option positions, risk is limited only to the
premium paid for the option position plus commissions and fees. Because
the option trader has 1) a predetermined risk, and 2) is not subject to being
“stopped out,” he has more time to properly evaluate his position when
there are sudden changes.
15
3. A Better Risk/Reward Ratio:
16
2. Options are usually cheaper after market declines or in flat markets,
and relatively more expensive in bull markets. Small traders generally
prefer to take a long position by purchasing calls; they have less demand
for puts, thus, calls are usually more expensive than puts. The public
prefers to be “long” and is predominantly buyers of call options.
17
When To Use Options with Futures
18
CHAPTER III
OPTION SPREAD STRATEGIES
Figure 7
We compare option volatility readings to determine whether option volatility is relatively high
or low, to know whether we should be considering option buying or selling strategies.
19
Option Strategies that Provide the Trader with a
Significant Advantage
20
and sell farther out-of-the-money option). The In-the-Money-Debit
Spread is initiated in volatile markets that are trending. Similar to the
ratio spread, the at-the-money option which is more fairly valued is
purchased and the farther out-of-the-money overvalued option is sold.
21
CHAPTER IV
USING NEUTRAL OPTION POSITIONS
22
of market direction—that the market was going below 110 (puts) or above
120 (calls). We were making no predictions other than that it would remain
in a wide trading range.
Market Price
Every day, both options sold lose some of their time value. Further,
adjustment techniques are available, allowing us to “rebalance” this position
when necessary. Remember, there is always unlimited risk of loss when an
option is sold, so risk management is always important.
23
Figure 8
Adjustment of Neutral Option Position when futures approaches strike price or option sold.
2. Being able to profit from both sides of the transaction—both from the
buyers of puts and buyers of calls.
5. Finally, we have the ability to both adjust our positions and increase our
position size. It has been mathematically proven that with sufficient
capital, the probability of making a profit becomes greater.
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CHAPTER V
THE “FREE TRADE”
11800
11500
11200
10900
10600
10300
O N D 94 F M A M
Figure 8a
25
The free trade accomplishes several objectives:
First, it keeps your account intact if the market turns around. Just as
quickly as markets rise, they can also fall. The free trade position provides
protection from loss in this situation.
Second, if the market moves in your favor, you can continue to add to
your position on the next pullback. If the trend remains intact and the market
pulls back, as it eventually does, you are then in a position to purchase
another option to begin building a larger position. You can look to turn the
second position into a free trade using the same method without increasing
your initial risk. By doing this you can take advantage of the normal swings
of the market to purchase options when they are the cheapest and sell them
when they are the most expensive, on rallies. Further, you will be purchasing
“closer-to-the-money options” which are normally the most fairly valued
options, and selling “out-of-the-money options” which are usually the most
overpriced options.
Also, the collateral benefits of the free trade—being able to look at
other potential opportunities because this position is secure from loss and
requires less monitoring, and the emotional security of having your equity
protected—should not be overlooked.
Another benefit of the free trade is that it gives you time to unemotionally
examine your position without the panic other traders experience as their
profitable positions begin to nose-dive. Because you are protected, you can
wait for emotions to subside and the market to give you a better indication
of its next move. You can then decide to hold your position and look for full
profit potential (knowing you are completely protected from loss), or you
can cash out and take your existing profits.
The final benefit of free trades is that, when they are completed, because
your capital is protected, you can turn your attention elsewhere. You may
find opportunities in another commodity, or even in the market in which you
have completed free trades to add more positions. This can be accomplished
without increasing your original risk because your first positions are now
risk-free! It is difficult to closely monitor more than two or three net positions,
especially in volatile markets. The free trade allows you to concentrate
more fully on other situations.
The free trade also allows you to meet your objective of getting a
“trading edge” over the markets by using options. You are taking advantage
of the increased volatility of the out-of-the-money options, which can be
quite exaggerated on market rallies.
26
CHAPTER VI
THE “RATIO SPREAD”
FUTURES CHARTS
COURTESY FUTURESOURCE
(800) 621-2628
Figure 9
- The probability of the futures price achieving a given price level.
—The profit or loss potential of a soybean ratio option spread comprised of 1 long
$7.00 call and 2 short $10.00 calls receiving a credit of $200.
27
Receiving this credit is very important when doing the ratio spread, and
beneficial for the following reasons:
2. Unlike a normal option purchase, there is no cost for your initial option
purchase because it was paid for by the sale of the two $10 calls.
4. The farther out-of-the-money options we sell will also lose their time
value faster as they approach expiration. Time value decreases for
both an option at-the-money and out-of-the-money as it approaches
expiration. This decline in time value is much more dramatic for the
out-of-the-money option.
5. Finally, one of the biggest benefits of the ratio spread, is the fact that,
if the market does not move as expected, as long as we obtain a credit
28
when the spread is initiated, we will not have a loss. In our example
above, let’s assume that soybeans drop to $4. In that case, the options
we purchased and sold will all be worthless at expiration. At that time,
the net difference to our account from taking this position will be the
$200 premium that we collected when we initiated this position; therefore,
our account will increase by $200 (less commissions and exchange
fees) even though the market moved against us!
There is only one case where the ratio spread can run into trouble:
when the price of the futures exceeds the strike price of the options sold.
For example, in our previous discussion of the soybean ratio spread, if at
expiration in November soybeans expire at $10, we make 300 points times
$50, or $15,000; however, if the price of soybeans exceeds $10, we begin to
lose $50 of our profit for each penny that soybeans exceeds $10. At the
price of $13, we would break even on this position, and over $13 we would
begin to have a net loss of $50 for each penny move that exceeds the price
of $13.
To help control the potential for large losses under these conditions, we
follow a rule that requires us to close out our ratio spread if the futures
price exceeds the strike price of our short option; therefore, if soybeans rise
above $10 at any time, we would recommend closing out the position.
We normally find that if the market rises slowly toward the strike price
of the options we sold, we still have a profit on the position when we close
it out. Usually, only in the case of a quick rise is it necessary to close the
position out as a loss.
The best time to initiate a ratio spread is when the market has made a
quick straight-up move. This is because this type of action normally increases
the demand for out-of-the-money “cheap” options for the reasons mentioned
above. This also seems to be when there is the greatest disparity in premiums
between the close-to-the-money and the out-of-the-money options, providing
the best opportunity for ratio spreads. (The one exception currently is the
S&P 500, when put option premium expands on market declines.)
We feel that the benefits of the ratio spread far outweigh the single
problem area, that of the market rising too quickly, too soon. Also, these
problems are handled by the rules we described above. The ability to initiate
a spread that can be profitable over a wide range of prices and market
conditions (in the case of our soybean example this position is profitable
from $0-$13!) allows you to have both financial and emotional security in
the markets.
29
CHAPTER VII
THE MOST OVERLOOKED OPTION BUYING
STRATEGIES (DON’T TRADE ANOTHER FUTURES
CONTRACT UNTIL YOU READ THIS!)
1. Lower cost
2. Limitation of risk
3. Ability to take advantage of premium disparity.
30
move in their favor. With the In-the-Money Debit Spread the trader knows
that not only is his risk limited, but he is actually hedging some of his losses
if the market goes against him with the gains on the option he sold.
These factors can be very important, especially to a trader who finds
that, although his ability to predict market direction is good, he is emotionally
and financially unable to handle the normal market “noise” of corrections,
even when the market is trending in his favor. This psychological advantage
of knowing that your losses are absolutely limited can make the difference
between a winning or losing trade.
The third benefit of this position is being able to take advantage of
disparity in option premiums. In the spread described above, the volatility of
the 985 was less than that of the 965 put. This means that we were selling
an option that was trading at a volatility higher than the option we were
purchasing, providing another significant benefit.
The advantages of this position seem so overwhelming that one wonders
why anyone would trade the outright futures contract. Still, there are some
disadvantages that should be considered by all traders before they initiate
this position. First, we are initiating a spread of two positions instead of one,
so there is an extra commission for each trade. Second, orders should always
be placed at a specific limit price to avoid slippage that can occur with less
liquid options. Third, profit on a “Debit Spread” is limited, as opposed to the
unlimited profit potential of futures positions; however, we feel that these
disadvantages are a small price to pay for the benefits that accrue with this
type of position, and could make the difference between a profitable or
unprofitable trade.
31
1. Before important reports, meetings, and releases of information that
could substantially affect the futures prices in either direction;
2. When option volatility (premium cost) is low; or
3. When the futures’ technical pattern suggests a large breakout is
imminent.
This strategy was recommended in July, 1997 just prior to the G-7
meeting. We expected these meetings to have a severe impact on the
currency market, either by action or disappointment from non-action. Further,
the option volatility in the D-Mark was near historical low levels in spite of
large daily moves occurring in the underlying futures market. This strategy
worked well as the D-Mark jumped almost 200 points the day after the
meetings concluded, allowing traders who initiated this position to turn their
call purchases into Free Trades. In fact, since the market began to turn
around right after this jump, the puts began to gain significantly in value, and
on a continued move down, traders were in a position to turn the puts into
Free Trades. This is the ultimate of all positions, to have a Free Trade in
both directions, and be able to profit without having to pick market direction!
FUTURES CHARTS
COURTESY FUTURESOURCE
(800) 621-2628
Figure 10
32
This position is also recommended when the market has moved itself
into an explosive chart pattern. Our favorite type of chart pattern for this
position is the “triangle” pattern, where the futures have made lower highs
and higher lows over an extended period of time. The market then “coils”
itself into a tighter and tighter trading range from which a large breakout
always occurs. The problem is in guessing which way this move will take
place. The option straddle removes this question, allowing the investor to
profit by a large move in either direction. Further, this is normally an
opportune time to purchase options, as volatility often falls to very low levels
as the market “quiets down” and moves into this trading range. Then, after
the breakout, not only does the option gain from the price movement, but
volatility can increase substantially thereby also further increasing the value
of the options purchased.
These two positions are not only the most overlooked option purchasing
opportunities, but they are strategies that can provide the investor with
significant advantages in the right circumstances—a substantial “trading
edge” over the markets.
33
CHAPTER VIII
THE MOST OVERLOOKED OPTION
SELLING STRATEGIES
In the first three instances, the net effect of initiating the covered call
would be to add a risk free $300 to our account to lower our losses in
situation a), or increase our profits in situations b) and c). Even in situation
d), which is the only scenario in which writing a call would be detrimental to
us, the only loss here is the limitation of potential profits (an opportunity
loss) above the $5.00 price. Our initial profits of $2,500 in the futures plus
the $300 we received for selling the option (less commissions and fees)
would be ours to keep. We just would receive no additional profits if silver
really took off and continued to move substantially above $5.00.
34
There is also a variation of covered writing that can provide the investor
with a more aggressive position with additional profits in a trending market
situation. In this case, after purchasing the silver at $4.50, you also purchase
a $4.50 call and sell two $5.00 calls. Our existing position now is long one
futures contract of silver at $4.50, long one silver $4.50 call; and short two
$5.00 calls. In this situation, our maximum profit level is $5,600 if silver is at
$5.00 by September, instead of the $2,800 that we could make if we purchased
only the futures without the aggressive option strategy. In fact, silver would
have to go all the way from $4.50 to $5.50, a move of more than 22%, to
make as much money with the futures alone as we would make with the
aggressive option strategy. What’s more, only above $5.50 does this strategy
become detrimental to us, as profits are limited above this level.
2. If silver moves above $4.50, but remains at or below $5.00, our profits
will be double what we would make with a futures position alone;
3. There are additional profits for traders while silver is between $4.50
and $5.00, above those that would be made on the futures alone; and
4. Only above $5.50 are profits limited (however, by this time we would
have made $2,800 for each option strategy and futures purchase).
35
that the deferred month options are “forgotten” and trading at volatility
levels 50% or more below the active front month option. Examples of this
occurred in 1996–1997 in the cocoa and coffee markets when they began
to break out; in the grains during their rally attempt this spring, where front
month premiums were higher; and in live cattle in May and June after it
rallied to new highs.
One of the best instances illustrating the benefits of this strategy occurred
in the live hog option market. The spread between February and October
live hogs had moved from February being 100 over October in the beginning
of June, to February being more than 150 under in July. Our research showed
that this does not happen often and usually such a disparity in the futures
contract is quickly corrected. Additionally, because of the volatility in the
live hog market, the February calls were 20% less expensive than the October
calls; therefore, we recommended a Calendar Spread to purchase in-the-
money February call options while selling out-of-the-money October options
that were close to expiration and entering a period of their most severe time
decay. This trade combined the best of both worlds for the Calendar
Spread allowing:
36
CONCLUSION
When I began trading options in 1982, I decided that I would read and
study all the books I could find on option trading, so that I could choose
which methods worked best. What I didn’t know was that, if my education
had been limited to this information, my abilities as a trader would have
been strictly limited. While there is no substitute for this knowledge, other
areas, such as having a trading plan and money management principles, are
equally necessary to succeed.
When I began researching option trading, I was very excited because
of the mathematical possibilities of combining options, and what I discov-
ered as certain characteristics that seem to provide significant benefits,
such as premium disparities between option strike prices and time decay of
overvalued options. After reading all existing option material, I felt almost
helpless because there was no “road map” to guide my option trading from
that point. I hope that this booklet can be the beginning point of your “road
map to success.”
DAVID L. CAPLAN
MALIBU, CALIFORNIA
37
Appendix 1
COMMON OPTION STRATEGIES FOR ALL MARKETS
Option
Spread Best Time
Strategy Position Characteristics to Use
Neutral Strategies
Box Sell calls and puts Profit certain if Any time when
same strike price done at credit credit is received
38
Option
Spread Best Time
Strategy Position Characteristics to Use
Mixed Strategies
Ratio Call Buy call, sell calls Neutral, slightly Large credit and
of higher strike bullish difference be-
price tween strike
prices of option
bought and sold
Ratio Put Buy put, sell puts Neutral, slightly Large credit and
of lower strike bearish difference be-
price tween strike
prices of option
bought and sold
Straddle Buy put and call Options will lose Options under-
Purchase time value valued and
premium quickly market likely to
make a big move
Bullish Strategies
39
Option
Spread Best Time
Strategy Position Characteristics to Use
Bearish Strategies
40
Appendix 2
NEUTRAL OPTION SPREAD STRATEGIES
41
5. Ratio Calendar Spread (combine ratio and calendar)
Requirements:
1. Large spread between options bought and sold
2. Zero premium or small debit
3. Futures price not likely to reach strike price of options sold
Example:
Buy 1 Oct 12 cent call and sell 2 July 14 cent calls
42
Appendix 3
OPTION STRATEGY SUMMARY
Strategy/Characteristics Requirement for Profit
PUT PURCHASE—High cost/risk is loss of option premium; Loss of premium results unless significant downside
reward limited to prevention of loss of stock or bond portfolio move occurs.
value; requires good skill in timing and premium evaluation.
CALL SALE—Reward limited to premium received; limits Will add income to portfolio in flat or limit profit of
profit bear market, but can potential of underlying portfolio, underlying positions in a bull market.
requires good skill in timing and premium evaluation.
SELL FUTURES—Unlimited risk/reward requires maximum Can provide hedge against loss in a declining market, but
43
skill in timing. can limit profit of underlying positions in a bull market.
STRANGLE SALE—Reward equal to amount of premiums S&P 500 remains in trading range of puts and calls sold.
collected. High mathematical probability of profit; does not
require prediction of market direction; requires good market
monitoring and premium evaluation skills.
BUY PUT/SELL CALL—Eliminates for downside risk without Excellent strategy portfolio after significant market rally
premium cost; does not require prediction of market direction or to lock in profits.
monitoring.
RATIO WRITE—Reward equal to premiums collected; high Best used after significant rally to add return to portfolio.
probability of profit; requires monitoring of extra short
options.
Appendix 4
GLOSSARY OF OPTION TERMS
ARBITRAGEUR Someone who simultaneously buys and sells
the same or equivalent options in different mar-
kets.
45
THEORETICAL VALUE The price of an option as computed by a
mathematical model such as the Black-Scholes
Model.
2005-CINV-00588
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