Solution to Problem-1

Originally there were 30,20,30,20 and 40 members in the first five groups in a batch of 180. That is already
(180-30-20-30-20-40) members in 6th group=40 members in 6th group.
To find the probability that on an auspicious day the faculty will find at least 120 students in the sixth group
we need to compute probability that at least 120-40=80 members from 140 members of 1st 5 groups will
migrate.

Since probability of migration is equal in all 5 cases and groups are independent by assumption, we can use
sum law of Binomial and say the random variable 𝑋, denoting the total number of migration from first five
groups, follows 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 (140, 2/5).

The required probability is 𝑃[𝑋 ≥ 80|𝑋~𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙(140,0.4)] = 1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(79,140,0.4) =

3.114095 × 10−5 .

If probability of migration is 3/5 for an individual, the required probability will be

𝑃[𝑋 ≥ 80|𝑋~𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙(140,0.6)] = 1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(79,140,0.6) = 0.7818483.
1
Using expectation of geometric distribution for a success, on an average he has to wait =
3.114095×10−5
32112.06 days to see such a success if he continues to teach the batch when migration probability is 0.4.

If we consider migration probability to be 3/5 for an individual, the average waiting time will be
1
0.7818483
= 1.279021 days.

Solution to Problem-2

𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑠) = 0.2

𝑃(𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑) = 0.3
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠) = 0.5

𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛| 𝑠𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑠) = 0.5

𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛| 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑) = 0.9
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛| 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠) = 0.7

𝑃(𝑔𝑢𝑦 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑟𝑔𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟)

= 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)
= 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑠) × 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛| 𝑠𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑠)
+ 𝑃(𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑)
× 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛| 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑)
+ 𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠) × 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛| 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠)
= 0.2 × 0.5 + 0.3 × 0.9 + 0.5 × 0.7 = 0.72

𝑃(management graduate|𝑔𝑢𝑦 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑟𝑔𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟)

= 𝑃(management graduate|𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠) × 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛| 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠)
=
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)
0.5 × 0.7 35
= = = 0.4861111
0.72 72

Solution to Problem-3

Let us consider the following events.

𝐴𝑖 : A fly survives the 𝑖-th application (𝑖 = 1,2,3, … )
Note that 𝐴𝑖+1 is a subset of 𝐴𝑖 (𝑖 = 1,2,3, … ) as the question of a fly survives (𝑖 + 1) application
is relevant if and only if, it survives all the previous 𝑖 applications.
Therefore, 𝐴1 ⊃ 𝐴2 ⊃ 𝐴3 ⊃ 𝐴4 . Given that
𝑃(𝐴1𝑐 ) = 0.8; that is, 𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2;
𝑃(𝐴𝑐2 |𝐴1 ) = 0.4; that is, 𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴1 ) = 1 − 0.4 = 0.6;
𝑃(𝐴𝑐3 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) = 0.2; that is, 𝑃(𝐴3 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8;
and similarly
𝑃(𝐴𝑐4 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = 0.1; that is, 𝑃(𝐴4 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9.

(a) The Probability that the fly will survive four applications

𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ 𝐴4 ) = 𝑃(𝐴4 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ). 𝑃(𝐴3 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴1 ). 𝑃(𝐴1 )

= 0.9 × 0.8 + 0.6 × 0.2 = 0.0864.

.
(b) Given that it has survived the first one, the probability that it will survive four applications
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩𝐴4 ) 𝑃(𝐴 )
is: 𝑃(𝐴4 |𝐴1 ) = = 𝑃(𝐴4 ) ( since 𝐴4 is a subset of 𝐴1 )
𝑃(𝐴1 ) 1
 0.0864
= (since 𝐴4 = 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ 𝐴4 ) = 0.432.
0.2

Solution to Problem-4

Here, we have 12 persons altogether who are either male or female.

Total number of possible equally likely arrangement is 212 .
Let A denote 6 businesspersons and their 6 secretaries add up to 6 males and 6 females, which is
12!
feasible in 6!6! equally likely ways.

12!
𝑃(𝐴) = = 0.2255859
6! 6! 212
Let B be another event that each businessperson chooses a secretary of opposite sex is possible in
1
½ ways for each and assuming they acted independently, 𝑃(𝐵) = 26 .
1
𝑃(𝐵) 26
Further, 𝐵 is a subset of 𝐴. So, the required probability, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴) = 12! =0.06926407.
6!6!212

Part (b): Suppose that the seats around the table are labelled (say, clockwise) 1,2 … ,12, and that
seat 1 is always occupied by a woman. Given some1 ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 12, let 𝐴𝑘 denote the event that seats
𝑘 and 𝑘 + 1 are occupied by a pair (businessperson and his/her secretary of opposite sex) with the
understanding that seat 13 is identified with seat 1. Then the event that there is no pair sitting next
𝐶
to each other can be expressed as 𝑃(⋂12 𝑘=1 𝐴𝑘 ). Then, by Poincare’s rule:
12 12 12
12
𝑃 (⋂ 𝐴𝐶𝑘 ) = 1 − 𝑃 (⋃ 𝐴𝑘 ) = 1 − ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) + ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 ) − ⋯
𝑘=1
𝑘=1 𝑖=1 𝑖<𝑗=1

A straight-forward calculation shows that, for any 1 ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 12, one has

5! 2
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) = 6. ( )
6!
for any 1 ≤ 𝑖 < 𝑗 ≤ 12 one has

4! 2
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 ) = { 6.5 ( 6!) |𝑖 − 𝑗| ≠ 1
0 Otherwise
where 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴12 ) =0, and, in general, for any 𝑖1 < ⋯ < 𝑖𝑘 , one has
𝑃(𝐴𝑖1 ∩ … ∩ 𝐴𝑖𝑘 )
6! (6 − 𝑘)! 2
= {(6 − 𝑘)! ( 6!
) if |𝑖𝑗+1 − 𝑖𝑗 | ≥ 2, 1 ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 6 and 12 − 𝑖1 − 𝑖2 ≥ 2
0 Otherwise

Consequently,
12 6
(6 − 𝑘)! 𝑘
𝑃 (⋂ 𝐴𝐶𝑘 ) = ∑(−1)𝑘 𝑑6 ,
6!
𝑘=1 𝑘=0

where 𝑑6𝑘 denotes the number of all possible choices of 𝑘 non-intersecting pairs of neighbouring
seats (the pairs (𝑖, 𝑖 + 1) and (𝑗, 𝑗 + 1) are said to be non-intersecting if, either 𝑖 + 1 < 𝑗, or 𝑗 +
1 < 𝑖). Note that
12 − 𝑘 12
𝑑6𝑘 = ( ) .
𝑘 12 − 𝑘
Thus, we arrive at the following conclusion: the probability that no pair is seated on two
neighbouring seats is given by

12 6
(6 − 𝑘)! 𝑘 12
𝑃 (⋂ 𝐴𝐶𝑘 ) = ∑(−1)𝑘 ( )
6! 12 − 𝑘 12 − 𝑘
𝑘=1 𝑘=0

Solution to Problem-5
a. Now according to question, using each customer types as an event, we have 4 exhaustive as well
as mutually exclusive events, with

𝑃(𝑃𝑃𝐶) = 0.1, 𝑃(𝐺𝑃𝐶) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝑆𝑃𝐶) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝑂𝐶) = 0.4

Let 𝐿 = event that customer take loan; 𝐷 = event that defaulter in loan repayment
𝑃(𝐿|𝑃𝑃𝐶) = 0.35; 𝑃(𝐿|𝐺𝑃𝐶) = 0.25; 𝑃(𝐿|𝑆𝑃𝐶) = 0.20; 𝑃(𝐿|𝑂𝐶) = 0.30
𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝑃𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.1, 𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝐺𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.04,
𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝑆𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.01 and 𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝑂𝐶 ) = 0.03.
First, we require 𝑃(𝐷|𝐿) = 𝑃(𝐷)/𝑃(𝐿), 𝑎𝑠 𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐿
Now,
 𝑃(𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐿)
= 𝑃(𝑃𝑃𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝑃𝑃𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝑃𝑃𝐶 ) + 𝑃(𝐺𝑃𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝐺𝑃𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝐺𝑃𝐶 )
+ 𝑃(𝑆𝑃𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝑆𝑃𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝑆𝑃𝐶 ) + 𝑃(𝑂𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝑂𝐶)𝑃(𝐿|𝐷 ∩ 𝑂𝐶 )
= 0.10 × 0.35 × 0.10 + 0.20 × 0.25 × 0.04 + 0.30 × 0.20 × 0.01 + 0.40
× 0.30 × 0.03 = 0.0035 + 0.0020 + 0.0006 + 0.0036 = 0.0097
By theorem of total probability,
𝑃(𝐿) = 0.1 × 0.35 + 0.2 × 0.25 + 0.3 × 0.2 + 0.4 × 0.3 = 0.265 (Already given)
0.0097
So 𝑃(𝐷|𝐿) = 𝑃(𝐷)/𝑃(𝐿) = = 0.03660377.
0.265

b. Now we require,
𝑃(𝐺𝑃𝐶).𝑃(𝐿|𝐺𝑃𝐶 ).𝑃(𝐷 |𝐿 ∩ 𝐺𝑃𝐶 ) 0.20×0.25×0.04 0.002
𝑃(𝐺𝑃𝐶|𝐷 ∩ 𝐿) = = = 0.0097 = 0.2061856.
𝑃(𝐷∩𝐿) 0.0097

Solution to Problem-6

We may have 6 possible mutually exclusive scheduling A to F (arrangements) of classes in 3 slots (say
slot-1, 2 and 3 according to time order). Those are:

A. S-1, S-2, S-3

B. S-1, S-3, S-2
C. S-2, S-3, S-1
D. S-2, S-1, S-3
E. S-3, S-2, S-1
F. S-3, S-1, S-2

All the above 6 arrangements are equally likely with Probability 1/6.

70% of 64 = 44.8
70% of 62 = 43.4
70% of 61 = 42.7

Absence rate of S-1 in slot 1 : 30%, in slot 2 and 3 : 15% each

Absence rate of S-2 in slot 1 : 24%, in slot 2 and 3 : 12% each
Absence rate of S-3 in slot 1 : 15%, in slot 2 and 3 : 7.5% each

Let 𝑋𝑖 be the presence in section S-𝑖; 𝑖 = 1,2,3. 𝑋𝑖 follows Binomial with parameters
𝑎𝑠 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 S-𝑖 and 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 (= 1 − 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒) depending on the slot
where section 𝑖 is scheduled.

By theorem of total probability, no assignment indicates (considering at least 70% presence)

𝑃(𝐴)𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45, 𝑋2 ≥ 44 , 𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝐴] + 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45, 𝑋2 ≥ 44 , 𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝐵] + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐹)𝑃(𝐴)𝑃[𝑋1

≥ 45, 𝑋2 ≥ 44 , 𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝐹]
= 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝐴]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝐵]𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝐴] + 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝐵]𝑃[ 𝑋2
≥ 44|𝐵]𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝐵] + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐹)𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝐹]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝐹]𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝐹]
 1
= {𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.7)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.88)]𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]
6
+𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.7)]𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,88)]
+𝑃[𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.76)]𝑃[ 𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]
+𝑃[𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.76)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]𝑃[ 𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]
+𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.85)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.88)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]
+𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.85)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.88)]}

1
= {𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.7)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.88)]𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]
3
+𝑃[𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.76)]𝑃[ 𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]
+𝑃[𝑋3 ≥ 43|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.85)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≥ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.88)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≥ 45|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]}

1
= {(1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.7)) ∗ (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(43,62,0.88)) ∗ (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(42,61,0.925))
3
+ (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(43,62,0.76)) ∗ (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(42,61,0.925))
∗ (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.85)) + (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(42,61,0.85))
∗ (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(43,62,0.88)) ∗ (1 − 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.85))} = 0.7985477

Clearly, the probability that class assignment given to all three sections is
1
= {𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.7)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≤ 43|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.88)]𝑃[𝑋3 ≤ 42|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]
3
+𝑃[𝑋2 ≤ 43|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.76)]𝑃[ 𝑋3 ≤ 42|𝑋3 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.925)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]
+𝑃[𝑋3 ≤ 42|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(61,0.85)]𝑃[ 𝑋2 ≤ 43|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(62,0.88)]𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]}

1
= {𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.7) ∗ 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(43,62,0.88) ∗ 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(42,61,0.925) + 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(43,62,0.76)
3
∗ 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(42,61,0.925) ∗ 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.85) + 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(42,61,0.85)
∗ 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(43,62,0.88) ∗ 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.85)} = 2.59861𝑒 − 11.

The class assignment was given to S-1 in day. S-1 can go to any slot with probability 1/3. To find the
probability that it was during 14:30-16:00 slot, by Bayes’ theorem, we have to compute,

𝑃[𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 1|𝑋1 ≤ 44]

𝑃[𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 1]𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 1]
=
𝑃[𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 1]𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 1] + 𝑃[𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 2]𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 2] + 𝑃[𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 3]𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 − 3]
𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.70)]
=
𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑋2 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.70)] + 𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)] + 𝑃[𝑋1 ≤ 44|𝑋1 ~𝐵𝑖𝑛(64,0.85)]
𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.70)
= = 0.9965534.
𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.70) + 2 ∗ 𝑝𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚(44,64,0.85)

Solution to Problem -7
Let 𝑋 follows Hypergeometric with parameters 𝑁, 𝑛 and 𝑝. Then the p.m.f. is

(𝑁𝑝
𝑥
𝑁𝑞
)(𝑛−𝑥 )
𝑓(𝑥) = ; 𝑥 = 0,1,2 … , 𝑛, 0 < 𝑝 < 1, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝.
(𝑁𝑛)

Now,
𝑁𝑝 𝑁𝑞
(𝑥+1)(𝑛−𝑥−1 )
𝑁 𝑁𝑝 𝑁𝑞
𝑓(𝑥 + 1) (𝑛 ) (𝑥+1 )(𝑛−𝑥−1)
= = 𝑁𝑝 𝑁𝑞
𝑓(𝑥) (𝑁𝑝
𝑥
𝑁𝑞
)(𝑛−𝑥 ) ( 𝑥 )(𝑛−𝑥)
𝑁
(𝑛 )
𝑥! (𝑁𝑝 − 𝑥)! (𝑛 − 𝑥)! (𝑁𝑞 − 𝑛 + 𝑥)!
=
(𝑥 + 1)! (𝑁𝑝 − 𝑥 − 1)! (𝑛 − 𝑥 − 1)! (𝑁𝑞 − 𝑛 + 𝑥 + 1)!
(𝑁𝑝 − 𝑥)(𝑛 − 𝑥)
=
(𝑥 + 1)(𝑁𝑞 − 𝑛 + 𝑥 + 1)

𝑓(𝑥 + 1) > 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑜𝑟 𝑓(𝑥 + 1) = 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑜𝑟 𝑓(𝑥 + 1) < 𝑓(𝑥)

According as
(𝑁𝑝 − 𝑥)(𝑛 − 𝑥) > 𝑜𝑟 = 𝑜𝑟 < (𝑥 + 1)(𝑁𝑞 − 𝑛 + 𝑥 + 1).

That is,
(𝑁𝑛𝑝 − 𝑛𝑥 − 𝑁𝑝𝑥 + 𝑥 2 ) > 𝑜𝑟 = 𝑜𝑟 < (𝑁𝑞𝑥 − 𝑛𝑥 + 𝑥 2 + 𝑥 + 𝑁𝑞 − 𝑛 + 𝑥 + 1).

That is,
(𝑁𝑛𝑝 − 𝑁𝑝𝑥 ) > 𝑜𝑟 = 𝑜𝑟 < (𝑁𝑞𝑥 + 𝑥 + 𝑁𝑞 − 𝑛 + 𝑥 + 1).

That is,
(𝑁𝑛𝑝 − 𝑁𝑞 + 𝑛 − 1 ) > 𝑜𝑟 = 𝑜𝑟 < (𝑁𝑝𝑥 + 𝑁𝑞𝑥 + 2𝑥).

As, 𝑁𝑝𝑥 + 𝑁𝑞𝑥 = 𝑁𝑥, we have

(𝑁𝑛𝑝 − 𝑁𝑞 + 𝑛 − 1 ) > 𝑜𝑟 = 𝑜𝑟 < (𝑁 + 2)𝑥

or
(𝑁𝑛𝑝 − 𝑁𝑞 + 𝑛 − 1 )
> 𝑜𝑟 = 𝑜𝑟 < 𝑥
𝑁+2

Therefore, Mode is the largest integer contained in:

(𝑁𝑛𝑝−𝑁𝑞+𝑛−1 ) (𝑁𝑛𝑝−𝑁𝑞+𝑛+𝑁+1 ) (𝑁𝑛𝑝+𝑁𝑝+𝑛+1 ) (𝑛+1)(𝑁𝑝+1 )
+1= = = .
𝑁+2 𝑁+2 𝑁+2 𝑁+2

(𝑛+1)(𝑁𝑝+1 )
That is [ ].
𝑁+2
 (𝑛+1)(𝑁𝑝+1 )
However if, [ ] is integer, we have two modes:
𝑁+2
(𝑛+1)(𝑁𝑝+1 ) (𝑛+1)(𝑁𝑝+1 )
and − 1.
𝑁+2 𝑁+2

Now, 25% of the students in among the batch of 180 students score more than 50% in
Quantitative Techniques. A group of 25 students are selected at random from the batch.

Let 𝑋 = The number of students scored more than 50% in the selected group of 25 students;

𝑋~ Hypergeometric( 𝑁 = 180, 𝑛 = 15, 𝑝 = 0.25)

Therefore, the most likely value of the number of students scored more than 50% in the selected
group of 25 students, is the largest integer contained in

(𝑛 + 1)(𝑁𝑝 + 1 ) (25 + 1)(180 × 0.25 + 1 ) 26 × 46

= = = 6.571429.
𝑁+2 180 + 2 182

That is, the required most likely value is 6.

Alternatively; one can compute probabilities one by one in R and find the x with maximum
probability. (Use: dhyper)

Solution to Problem-8

Let 𝑋 =Number of Defective items in the lot of 100 (before inspection)

100
𝑃[𝑋 = 𝑥] = ( ) (0.1)𝑥 (0.9)100−𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1,2 … ,100 ; Otherwise 𝑃[𝑋 = 𝑥] = 0.
𝑥

Further let Y=Number of Defective items in the in random sample of size 5.

(𝑦𝑥 ) (100−𝑥
5−𝑦
)
𝑃[𝑌 = 𝑦|𝑋 = 𝑥] = 𝑦 = 0,1, … ,5, 𝑦 ≤ 𝑥, 95 + 𝑦 ≤ 𝑥 and Otherwise 0.
(100
5
)

𝑃[𝑋 = 𝑥 and 𝑌 = 𝑦 ] = 𝑃[𝑋 = 𝑥]𝑃[𝑌 = 𝑦|𝑋 = 𝑥]

100 (𝑦𝑥 ) (100−𝑥
5−𝑦
)
𝑥 100−𝑥
=( ) (0.1) (0.9)
𝑥 (100
5
)
 Now, Let 𝑍 = No. of defectives found by customer;

𝑍 = 1 can happen only in two situations:

Either with ( 𝑋 = 1 and 𝑌 = 0 ): Super Quality

or (𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1): Class − 1 Quality

The Required Probability is 𝑃[𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1|𝑍 = 1].

Note that 𝑃[𝑍 = 1|𝑋 = 1 and 𝑌 = 0] = 1 and also 𝑃[𝑍 = 1|𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1] = 1.

Further,
𝑃[𝑍 = 1|Any other combination (x, y) than (𝑋 = 1 and 𝑌 = 0) 𝑜𝑟 (𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1) ] = 0.

Therefore,
𝑃[𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1|𝑍 = 1]
𝑃[𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1]𝑃[𝑍 = 1|𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1]
=
𝑃[𝑋 = 1 and 𝑌 = 0]𝑃[𝑍 = 1|𝑋 = 1 and 𝑌 = 0] + 𝑃[𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1]𝑃[𝑍 = 1|𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1]
𝑃[𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1]
=
𝑃[𝑋 = 1 and 𝑌 = 0] + 𝑃[𝑋 = 2 and 𝑌 = 1]
2 100−2
100 2 100−2 (1)( 5−1 )
( 2 )(0.1 ) (0.9)
(100
5 )
= 2 100−2
( )( 5−1 )
2 (0.9)100−2 1
(1)(100−1
1 (0.9)100−1 1 5−1 )
(100
2 )(0.1) 100 + (100
1 )(0.1 ) 100
( 5 ) ( 5 )
0.001623197 × 0.0959596
= = 0.9134615.
0.001623197 × 0.0959596 + 0.0002951267 × 0.05