Early Warning Early Action
Early Warning Early Action
Early Warning Early Action
Our goals
Goal 1: Reduce the number of deaths, injuries
and impact from disasters.
Our priorities
Improving our local, regional and international
capacity to respond to disasters and public
health emergencies.
When disasters strike, Red Cross Red Crescent volunteers are often among the first to
provide relief to the victims. But in most cases, we can save more lives and reduce more
suffering if we can act before a disaster. We have known for decades now that it is much
more effective to evacuate people before a flood than to rescue people during the flood, or
to provide relief to its victims. It is also much more effective to support farmers to find al-
ternative livelihood options than to provide food aid when the harvest has failed. The Red
Cross Red Crescent is investing more into people-centred early warning systems so that
their early action (preparedness and mitigation/prevention) are suited to face the rising risks
of extreme weather events as a result of climate change.
At each end of this temporal scale, disaster risk is the interaction between hazards (cy-
clones, storms, droughts, etc) and the vulnerability of communities. Both of these ele-
ments are constantly changing. Climate change causes the frequency, intensity and
location of hazards to change. Phenomena such as urbanization, poverty, population
growth and disease continuously alter the nature of vulnerability. For the Red Cross Red
Crescent, disaster risk reduction is not just an effort to produce detailed risk maps but
more a means to continually understand the evolving nature of hazards and vulnerabilities
and to take action to tackle vulnerability and it underlying causes.
Early warning Early action
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
Early action
An early warning has no effect without early action. Numerous examples illustrate how re-
liable information about expected threats was insufficient to avert a disaster, including Cy-
clone Nargis, Hurricane Katrina, and the food crisis in Niger.
At the shortest timescales, that action could be evacuation. On the longest timescales,
early action means working closely with local communities to assess and address the root
causes of the changing risks they face. Houses on stilts, planting trees against landslides,
dengue awareness and prevention campaigns, water catchment systems and millions of
other risk reduction measures can be taken. Early action also includes updated contin-
gency planning and volunteer mobilization. In terms of geographic range, early action can
take various forms: If a large flood is expected, at the most local scale a community can
protect its main water well from contamination. At country level a National Red Cross or
Red Crescent Society can update its contingency plans. Internationally the International
Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies can mobilize human and financial re-
sources ahead of the disaster to assist the National Society in reducing the impacts and
even preventing loss of life altogether.
The more we act upon the warnings on the longest timescales, by identifying communi-
ties at risk, investing in disaster risk reduction, and enhancing preparedness to respond,
the more lives and livelihoods can be salvaged at the shortest timeframes when a flood
does arrive. Similarly, better links to global and regional knowledge centres and standard-
ized procedures to get the information to the right place will facilitate more effective ac-
tion at the most local level.
The focus of our preparedness effort will be on increasing public awareness of the rising
disaster risk; organising communities to respond and recover better from disaster; improv-
ing community resilience to reduce the impact of disaster shocks and developing external
partnerships with knowledge centres, governments and other civil society organizations to
address the increased risks.
To be more precise on the exact impacts of climate change is difficult. Typically, the
longer in advance a warning appears, the less precise it will be. A few hours in advance, we
usually know quite well where and when a large storm will hit. However for such a warn-
ing to be actionable, investment must be made well in advance to create a comprehensive
emergency management system. With a warning period of a few days, a storm forecast
leads to immediate disaster preparedness action – identifying evacuation routes, evacua-
tion centres, protecting assets and mobilizing community organizers for immediate re-
sponse. However, a longer term warning (months or years in advance) of the changing
Early warning Early action
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
International Federation
Reliable climate and weather information could save a lot of despair. In September 2004 most people in
southwest China thought the flood season was over, but it wasn’t. Storms and torrential rain came back and
with even greater force than had already been experienced that summer.
nature of storm risk allows us to expand our disaster risk reduction actions, including
helping communities plant trees to stabilize hillsides, organizing themselves to respond
better to warnings, building storm-resistant houses or advocating for constructing storm
shelters. Knowing that a risk is higher than normal demands a higher level of investment
in preparing capacity to take early actions that will be useful regardless of when and where
the disaster strikes.
Using such risk information may also mean that we sometimes get it “wrong” – for in-
stance when a forecast predicts an 80 per cent likelihood that there will be hurricane-force
winds in a certain time and place. We know that while very likely to happen, there’s no
certainty. Indeed, for 20 per cent of these cases, we actually expect the predicted condition
to not happen. We should not hide that uncertainty when we promote early action: an
honest description of what we know and don’t know about the future should be a key
component of our communication to all stakeholders, and an important consideration in
how we assess and address the risks.
Early warning Early action
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
Example 1:
Example of early warning Example of early action
flood
Example 2:
Cyclone/
Example of early warning Example of early action
hurricane/
typhoon
Forecast of likely development of cyclones in a Preparedness: Alert National Society, pay extra close
Weeks
particular stretch of ocean attention to potential storm warnings
Example 3:
Example of early warning Example of early action
malaria
Forecast of enhanced risk of malaria outbreaks Preparedness: Coordinate with government and WHO
Months in particular areas, based a.o. on rainfall and to update contingency plans, prepare local health and
(seasonal) temperature (as observed and forecast for the care facilities, sensitize communities about enhanced
coming months) risk, distribute bednets
Reports of malaria outbreaks in a particular Response: Facilitate access to treatment and continue
Weeks
region to sensitize communities to use bednets
Early warning Early action
The Red Cross/Red Crescent answer to rising climate risks
International Federation
The climate is changing and communities in some countries are already feeling the heat. Climate information in the form of trends and forecasts,
combined with tried and tested disaster risk reduction measures, can help anticipate disasters before they happen and enable communities to prepare
for and cope with them. For this approach to succeed, partnerships must be strengthened between the humanitarian sector and those working in the
field of climate change. National Societies in the Asia Pacific region have been showing the way in this important area.
“People have always dealt with disasters like firefighters, as if the risks were completely un-
avoidable,” writes Youcef Ait-Chellouche, disaster-management coordinator at the Inter-
national Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies’ Dakar zone office. “After the
emergency, with the job done, the brave firemen go back to the station, applause ringing in
their ears, to wait in ‘stand-by’ mode for the next alert.”
For decades however, we have developed ways to prepare for, mitigate and prevent disas-
ters, and the loss of life. The following case studies indicate how early warnings and early
actions can make the difference between life and death. They also show times when insuf-
ficient resources and investment in disaster risk reduction cost lives and livelihoods.
Now the International Federation and the International Research Institute for Climate
and Society (IRI) at New York’s Columbia University, which specializes in integrating cli-
mate information into decision-making, have formed a partnership that should allow the
Red Cross Red Crescent network to be mobilized for early action.
Early warning Early action
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
“We try to provide the International Federation with weather and climate information in con-
text,” says Molly Hellmuth, its focal point at IRI. “We can help the Red Cross Red Crescent
spot climate anomalies and put them into language the International Federation’s whole net-
work can understand,” she adds.
There’s nothing new about “early warning and early action”, of course. What is new is the
use of this approach in the field of disaster management, which has been witnessing a signif-
icant increase in climate-related disasters, and increasingly seeking – and basing its decisions
on – sophisticated weather predictions provided by research institutions. Climate informa-
tion is not enough, however – disseminating early warnings to individual households is es-
sential for early action, and for covering the last mile to inform and protect people.
Floods in Africa
Southern Africa: The power of early action
“If only the donors would fund risk reduction,” said the British charity worker, sipping a
cold beer at Beira airport one sweltering evening in January 2008, “we’d be doing this
more often.” A flood disaster in Mozambique’s Zambezi valley had just been avoided and
aid agency staff members were on their return flight to the capital, Maputo. Had it not
been a prompt and extensive evacuation from the Zambezi, Buzi, Pungue and other river
valleys in Mozambique – there would have been a major disaster, and it would have cost
hundreds, and possibly thousands, of lives. The story, while proving yet again that risk re-
duction does pay off, would not get the attention it deserved – disaster is news, disaster
averted is not.
Risk reduction – as opposed to quick-impact, high-profile response – has long had a reputa-
tion of being hard to fund. Government donors answer to their taxpayers and need to be
able to demonstrate impact. And it can be difficult to show impact when a disaster has been
averted. Yet, thanks to risk reduction measures, the Mozambique Red Cross was able to take
effective “early action” in response to “early warnings” in December 2007 – that the Cahora
Bassa dam on the Zambezi river was increasing its discharge rate to 4,450 cubic meters per
second and that the Buzi river to the south was only a metre below “critical” level.
The Mozambique Red Cross did not let a moment go wasted. Thanks partly to a cash
grant from the International Federation’s Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF), the
National Society’s aquatic-rescue team replenished its stocks of fuel and quietly dovetailed
a detachment of Mozambican marines, completing the bulk of evacuations in the Buzi
river basin even before the end of December and proving yet again that disasters need not
be disastrous. But this was only the first part of the story. By the end of January 2008,
tens of thousands of rural Mozambicans had moved to tented resettlement centres or in
self-built huts in villages whose populations had more than doubled overnight. Safe drink-
ing water, food, health and livelihoods all became urgent priorities, which the Mozam-
bique Red Cross was able to meet with support from the International Federation’s
regional emergency appeal for five million euro.
Early warning Early action
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
In 2007, some of the worst floods in decades swept across 20 African countries stretching
from the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea. Just one year later, West and Central Africa was
again under the threat of wholly predictable monsoon rains.
In May 2008, the International Federation’s West and Central Africa Zone office called on
its new partnership with climate professionals on both sides of the Atlantic – including
the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) – to try
to prevent history repeating itself. ACMAD – as other climate centres – issued warnings
of “wet and very wet” conditions, which were quickly confirmed by a series of flood events
in West Africa (see Maps, back cover).
Multi-model probability forecast of extreme precipitation for June–August 2008, issued May 2008.
(Source: IRI)
Early warning Early action
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
Observed rainfall for July-August 2008. Brown shading indicates the drier than average areas, green shading
the wetter areas. (Source: IRI)
When disaster managers from Caribbean Red Cross societies sat down for a pre-season
meeting in Panama in June 2008, they knew weather experts foresaw a potentially very
dangerous few months. All the climatic elements for a “highly active” hurricane season
were in place according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), and up to nine hurricanes were predicted – at least two of them major ones.
Immediately, Caribbean Red Cross societies completed their regional contingency plans,
outlined their pre-positioned stocks, resources and personnel, detailed their response strate-
gies, and organized pre-landfall coordination meetings. And the predictions proved correct.
Each storm wrote a paragraph in meteorological history: Alma was the first Pacific storm
on record to strike the west coast of Nicaragua, Arthur, the first Atlantic storm to form in
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International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
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May for more than 30 years. Colliding together over Belize, these two storms dumped an
astonishing 260 millimetres of rain in a day and a half – causing serious floods and con-
firming one of the starkest consequences of climate change, the need to expect the unex-
pected. “We’re accustomed to floods,” said Fred Hunter, chief disaster coordinator at the
Belize Red Cross. “But this was three or four days into the rainy season and we expect the
ground to soak up the water for a month or two before we start to get any big floods. “It
caught us totally by surprise… and the area where most of the damage was done has never
flooded that much before.”
Haiti was struck by not one but four storms: Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike, the last three of
them hurricanes. In the final week of August, with Gustav bearing down on them, the Hait-
ian Red Cross board met in an emergency session while local branches gathered weather re-
ports from communities and began mobilizing volunteers. “Haitian Red Cross workers
plotted and re-plotted landfall scenarios for Gustav to decide how to use their scarce re-
sources to save as many lives as possible,” says Xavier Castellanos, the deputy head of the In-
ternational Federation’s Americas zone, who got to Haiti just before Gustav struck.
While volunteers did not have sufficient tools to sound warnings and alert communities
to evacuate – they did manage to save many lives. “Volunteers worked around the clock
before and after these storms hit,” says Guillermo Garcia, regional director for the Ameri-
can Red Cross, which has a base in Port-au-Prince. “They carried out evacuations and
search and rescue, assisted with government-run shelters, provided first aid, assessed dam-
age, and distributed relief supplies.” According to Jean-Pierre Gueatou, executive director
of the Haitian Red Cross, “We had volunteers and personnel from the civil defence work-
ing on the evacuations. At least 6,000 people took shelter.”
But resources, and investments in disaster risk reduction, were not enough to prevent dis-
asters. Nearly 800 Haitians died, more than half in Gonaives, the desperately vulnerable
north-west coastal town that sits mostly below sea level and where floods after Hurricane
Jeanne in 2004 killed some 2,800 people. Three quarters of a million people lost their
homes or were directly affected. Summer crops like maize and beans and many banana
plantations were severely damaged.
The heatwave danger in Europe is one of the most observed impacts of climate change. In
Bulgaria, in July 2007, temperatures rose above 40 degrees celsius, and in some places
Early warning Early action
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
The Niuleni artificial islands in Malaita Province, more than 20 of them in Lau Lagoon,
are exactly that: constructed by the inhabitants themselves from stone and broken coral.
The islands stand up to two metres above low tide, but at high tide the sea rises almost to
people’s doors. There is no land to spare, and no natural water supply. The approximately
1,500 islanders are dependent on the mainland for garden produce, firewood, topsoil, but
above all, for fresh water. These are all brought by canoe, weather permitting.
An investigation of the Solomon Islands Red Cross into climate-change impacts has led it
to choose these remote and vulnerable islands for an in-depth assessment mission. Staff
and volunteers spent a week with the island communities to find out that water, ironically,
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International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes
12
is their most pressing issue and that more intense storms and increased drought on the
mainland are already worrying them. For this reason, the National Society is liaising with
local donors to provide better rainwater harvesting equipment – than the current reliance
on tarpaulins for “harvesting” rainwater. The villagers themselves will put this equipment
together and get training on how to operate and maintain it. Having more locally sourced
water will also reduce the need for risky voyages to the mainland. In a very real sense, cli-
mate awareness has been a catalyst for better preparation in Niuleni.
Since the assessment mission in Niuleni, the Solomon Islands Red Cross has revised its
“Community Frontlines” toolkit to draw links between climate change and disasters, com-
munity preparedness, risk and vulnerability. The toolkit also includes practical steps for
community-based action, and will serve to inspire others, in helping adapt to their ever
changing environments.
Impartiality
It makes no discrimination as to nationality, race, religious beliefs,
class or political opinions. It endeavours to relieve the suffering of
individuals, being guided solely by their needs, and to give priority
to the most urgent cases of distress.
Neutrality
In order to enjoy the confidence of all, the Movement may not take
sides in hostilities or engage at any time in controversies of a
political, racial, religious or ideological nature.
Independence
The Movement is independent. The National Societies, while
auxiliaries in the humanitarian services of their governments and
subject to the laws of their respective countries, must always
maintain their autonomy so that they may be able at all times to act
in accordance with the principles of the Movement.
Voluntary service
It is a voluntary relief movement not prompted in any manner by
desire for gain.
Unity
There can be only one Red Cross or Red Crescent Society in any
one country. It must be open to all. It must carry on its
humanitarian work throughout its territory.
Universality
The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, in
which all societies have equal status and share equal responsibilities
and duties in helping each other, is worldwide.
The International Federation
of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies promotes the humanitarian
activities of National Societies among
vulnerable people.
By coordinating international
disaster relief and encouraging
development support it seeks
to prevent and alleviate
human suffering.
The International Federation,
the National Societies and
the International Committee
150000 11/2008 E