The Pocket Guide To Pseudoscience by ZME Science 2018
The Pocket Guide To Pseudoscience by ZME Science 2018
The Pocket Guide To Pseudoscience by ZME Science 2018
pocket
guide
to
P se u d o
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Authors
Andrei Mihai, Tiberius Puiu, Alexandru Micu
Editors
Zoe Gordon, Samantha Adler
Illustrations
Alexandru Micu
Foreword By
Douglas Allchin
We would like to take this occasion to thank all those who helped make
this booklet a reality. Our family, friends, and readers who keept our
spirits high when the going was tough. Our colleagues in the field of
science journalism, the experts that took their time to walk us through
the subjects being discussed here, and all the many others who helped
us along the way -- we thank you.
ZME Science was established in the summer of 2007. We’ve grown into
a trusted and provocative source of science news and features since
then, covering research and developments from all scientific fields. You
can find us at ZME Science.com.
© 2018 ZME Science. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in
any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations
embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law.
4
Contents
Foreword ........................................................................................... 6
Astrology ......................................................................................... 19
Testing astrology ....................................................................................... 20
Astrology studies ....................................................................................... 21
The Carlson study ..................................................................................... 21
Astrology works, but only in rigged studies .......................................... 21
The Forer experiment ............................................................................... 22
More evidence of paranormal inactivity ................................................ 24
References (Astrology) ............................................................................. 25
Homeopathy ................................................................................... 27
What about the practice? Absolutely implausible ................................ 28
Homeopathy studies ................................................................................. 29
Why homeopathy seems to work ............................................................ 30
Cautionary tales......................................................................................... 31
A note on natural remedies ...................................................................... 32
References (Homeopathy) ....................................................................... 33
5
Anti-Vaxxing ................................................................................... 35
Consequences of the vaccine scare .......................................................... 36
The infamous Wakefield paper ................................................................ 37
More Anti-vaxxers, more diseases .......................................................... 38
References (Anti-Vaxxing) ...................................................................... 43
Foreword:
The Challenge of Science Con-Artists
Imitators of science abound. Their motives vary: some are just naïve
-- they fail to understand what makes science science, but it seems to
validate their unfounded beliefs. Others want to cash in on the authority
and prestige of science. They project an image of science, but without
the substance. Their claims lack evidence. They may sound plausible.
They may echo what one wants to believe. But they are lies, designed
to procure personal profit. These persons are science con-artists. Their
intent is deception and their product is pseudoscience -- a cheap
masquerade of genuine science.
Douglas Allchin,
Historian, philosopher of science, and science educator.
7
Faulty findings,
real appeal
--
the psychology
of
pseudoScience
The Earth is not flat. Vaccines don’t cause autism. Astrology doesn’t work. Neither
does ‘detox’. Bringing a snowball into Congress doesn’t disprove climate change.
N
one of those ideas hold any truth, but a growing number of
people are buying into pseudoscientific beliefs. It’s not easy
to say exactly why and how this is taking place, but at the
core of the problem, we feel, lies a lack of trust. In experts, in science, a
lack of trust in what we don’t understand.
Pseudoscience propagates this lack of trust. It is, by its very nature, so
completely opposed to what science is and stands for that it’s corrosive
to it. These theories are presented as authentic research, but fail to
meet the standards of the scientific method -- there’s no evidence to
back them up.
Just like matter and anti-matter, science and pseudoscience seem
to cancel each other out with a bang -- and the long-term effects are
dramatic, often deadly, and insidious [1].
8
...
...
It’s what brought us diet fads, “fake news”, and the recent measles [4]
[5] [6]
epidemic. The effects of this trend cannot be overstated.
We’re facing real, significant, near-irreversible climate change [7] [8].
We’re seeing the reemergence of diseases that our vaccines had almost
wiped out. We’re trying to go to Mars while some people still insist the
Earth is flat. Public opinion is increasingly polarized around key issues
such as energy, climate change, politics, and health. Pseudoscience has a
big role to play in that [9]. Many situations can be spun and manipulated,
taken advantage of.
But we can’t afford to waste time and energy being divided on topics
that are clear-cut, or to doubt the experts just because we don’t like what
they’re saying. We can launch world-ending nukes with a button -- we
can’t risk having people not listen to basic scientific facts, or judging
life through a twisted, distorted lens. The growth of pseudoscience in
all its forms is one of the most worrying developments of our modern
times, we believe. It’s more important than ever to be well-advised, to
stay informed and -- why not -- to learn more about the very world we
live in.
The time has never been more ripe for good science. So, here, we will be
presenting some of the most widespread and insidious pseudoscientific
ideas going around. Every chapter is a new idea, arranged in a way that’s
short and easy to read.
10
References (Introduction)
The Earth
is
Flat-out
p
S eh
r
ic
al.
The Earth is round. Technically, it’s an oblate spheroid, but for the
sake of this discussion, “round” is good enough. The Earth isn’t unique
in that -- all planets are round, and for a very good reason: gravity.
Planets start off as clouds of dust and gas[10]. Under the effect of gravity,
all of this matter is compressed near its center. Gravity pulls equally from
all directions towards the core, giving planets their spherical shape.
Of course, planets aren’t perfect spheres -- they have features like
mountains or valleys, and tend to form bulges around their equator --
but they’re definitely, without a doubt, not flat.
Let’s assume for a second that you could make a flat Earth. We’ll still
need a hypothetical, dense ‘core’ which would also be flat, or slab-like.
This model is already unstable. Gravity as a force acts between the
center of mass of two or more objects -- and by mathematical definition,
centers of mass are points [11], not volumes or lines. Under the sway of
gravity, particles will try to move as close as they possibly can to that
center of mass. A slab or a disk simply has too many particles too far
away from the center to be stable.
Even if such a slab formed , it would later collapse into a sphere-like
object.
14 Flat Earth
The idea popped up in the 5th century BC, in the works of Herodotus
and later Pythagoras[12], to whom the spherical model is widely
attributed.
Before 200 BC, the Greek mathematician named Eratosthenes used
shadows to not only show that the Earth is round, but to calculate its
circumference as well [13] -- and he was able to do this without leaving
Egypt, where he was living. He did it by noting the angles of shadows
in two cities on the Summer Solstice, when the Sun reaches its highest
position in the sky (there are two solstices every year, one for each
hemisphere). By knowing the distance between the two cities and the
shade angle, you can calculate the size of the Earth’s sphere.
We don’t know if Eratosthenes was the first to devise this, but his
experiment remained in history.
The idea was replicated several times, and can be still tested today --
all you need is a friend from a nearby city, a protractor, and two sticks.
Magellan
...
We sometimes ridicule people for buying into these
fairy tales -- which isn't particularly nice of us.
For many people who give in to pseudoscience,
these ideas offer an escape from a world that's
often cruel, unfair, or just doesn't make sense. But
these ideas end up further robbing them of agency
and feelings of control over their life.
That's what makes this whole affair tragic.
...
17 Flat Earth
The Stars
Don’t
care
About you.
19 Astrology
Astrology
To most people, the idea of a flat Earth seems absolutely ridiculous.
So let’s continue with something just as ridiculous: a 2,000-year-
old divination practice which claims that the life and personality of
some primates is defined by the movement of the moon, planets,
and a few randomly defined constellations.
Or, as most people call it, astrology.
Astrology is the belief that the alignment of stars and planets affects
every individual’s mood, personality, and environment -- it all depends
on when the individual was born.
Except it doesn’t. There is no mechanism to justify this, no force
that can back it up, and no rational reason to split up the entire
human population into 12 groups represented by randomly assigned
constellations. It’s been thoroughly disproven as a pseudoscience.
Renowned astrologer Elizabeth Teissier famously tried to explain
astrology by saying that “the sun ends up in the same place in the sky on
the same date each year,” but that couldn’t be further from the truth-- on
any specific date, there’s a difference in Earth’s location of about twenty-
two thousand miles between two successive years.
The constellations used in the western zodiac were first described
in Babylon, some 3,000 years ago. They hardly even look like what
they’re supposed to represent, and there’s no reason to assign 1/12th
of the world’s population to one constellation. Does my life depend on
Babylonian pattern-matching and ancient magic?
Certainly not.
20 Astrology
Or can we?
(of course we can)
21 Astrology
• “You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.”
• “You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.”
• “You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not
turned to your advantage.”
• “While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally
able to compensate for them.”
• “Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome
and insecure inside.”
• “At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made
the right decision or done the right thing.”
• “You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become
dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.”
• “You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept
others’ statements without satisfactory proof.’
• “You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to
others.”
• “At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other
times you are introverted, wary, reserved.”
• “Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.”
Does this sound like you? Well, the average rating that
students gave this assessment was 4.26/5 -- in other words,
they found the assessment to be 85% accurate, even though
they were all blanket statements.
More evidence
of
Paranormal Inactivity
References (astrology)
Homeopathy
is still bs.
27 Homeopathy
c) the consultation effect - Modern research has shown that if you just
go to the doctor and receive a consultation, the care, concern, and
reassurance a patient experiences when opening up to a compassionate
caregiver (read: homeopath) can have a positive effect.
References (homeopathy)
Vaccines
Don’t
Cause
Autism
Never have, never will.
35 Anti-Vaxxing
Anti-Vaxxing
While homeopathy has been discussed in one form or another for a
long time, a more recent movement is sending ripples -- and causing a
lot of damage -- through the world: anti-vaxxers.
...
"[All] evidence favors rejection of a causal
relationship between MMR vaccine and autism"
-- The United States Institute of Medicine.
...
36 Anti-Vaxxing
...
“The British Medical Journal concluded that
Wakefield’s study linking vaccines to autism was a
“deliberate fraud”.
...
38 Anti-Vaxxing
Many major (and honest) studies[32] have been carried out since,
demonstrating without any doubt that MMR vaccines do not engender
a higher risk of autism or colitis. Not a single study found a connection
between the two, but the damage has already been done.
The number of parents who refuse to vaccinate their children has
grown, surpassing 3%. Many parents feel like vaccines are no longer
necessary because they haven’t heard of the diseases they’re vaccinating
against. That’s right: vaccines have been so effective that people forget
why we need them -- and the diseases are bouncing back. Talk about
irony!
A 2013 paper[33] linked falling immunization rates to the recent
resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases. California, for instance --
a hub for the anti-vaxxing movement -- saw 9,120 cases of whooping
cough (pertussis) in 2010, which is more than any year since the
whooping cough vaccine was introduced in the 1940s. During this
particular outbreak, ten infants died of the disease.
...
The American Association of Pediatricians reports[28]
that up to 87% of pediatricians have encountered a
parent who refused to vaccinate their child, a figure
which has been steadily increasing.
...
39 Anti-Vaxxing
Children have been vaccinated for decades and, despite what you
may have read, there is no one reputable source or credible study
linking immunization to long-term health problems. Significant side
effects are extremely rare (around one in a million cases), and are far
outweighed by the advantages.
...
...
41 Anti-Vaxxing
The Polio virus (like many others) is still around and could easily
start re-infecting unprotected individuals when re-introduced to the
country. A better example is measles, which was very rare in the United
States until outbreaks occurred as a result of Americans traveling to
countries where the disease remained widespread.
When there are adequate vaccination rates, most types of outbreaks
can be prevented.
References (anti-Vaxxing)
28. Committee on Practice and Ambulatory Medicine, Committee on
Infectious Diseases, Committee on State Government Affairs, Council on
School Health, Section on Administration and Practice Management, “Medical
Versus Nonmedical Immunization Exemptions for Child Care and School
Attendance“, American Academy of Pediatrics.
29. Sachiko Ozawa et al., (2016), “Return On Investment From Childhood
Immunization In Low- And Middle-Income Countries“, 2011–20, Health
Affairs.
30. Brian Deer, “Andrew Wakefield – the fraud investigation“, personal blog.
31. Godlee F, Smith J, Marcovitch H., (2011), “Wakefield’s article linking
MMR vaccine and autism was fraudulent“, British Medical Journal.
32. Taylor L., Swerdfeger A., Eslick G., (2014), “Vaccines are not associated
with autism: an evidence-based meta-analysis of case-control and cohort
studies,“ Vaccine.
33. Jessica Atwell et al., (2013), “Nonmedical Vaccine Exemptions and
Pertussis in California, 2010“, Pediatrics.
Detox
Detox
44
very good
at selling T h at
does
you stuff
n o t
work.
45 Detox
You can find of articles online on all sorts of detoxes[34]. Some are
relatively benign, such as the “carrot juice cleanse”, but others are
downright dangerous. Many programs permit no food, just tea and
lemonade, and sometimes including more exotic ingredients like maple
syrup and cayenne pepper.
Detoxing
There is no scientific evidence that
and these diets remove any toxins.
science
The only thing that they achieve is weight loss but that’s, of course, to
be expected when a person stops eating food. Even the weight loss bit is
a smokescreen, as detox helps you lose fluids, not fat[35].
In fact, using this diet can harm you in the long run because it robs
the body of important nutrients like protein, vitamins, and minerals.
According to the Harvard Medical School[36], the laxative component
of the diet can lead to dehydration and electrolyte loss as well as an
impaired bowel function. Other side effects[37] may include fatigue,
nausea, and dizziness over the short-term, and loss of muscle mass and
a heightened risk of heart attack in the long-run.
Most other popular body cleanses make similar promises and follow
more or less the same low-calorie, nutrient-poor diets. It’s important to
understand why this is happening, and that just because you’re losing
weight doesn’t mean it’s good for your body.
...
A lot of people who fall for detoxing are drawn in by
the mirage of healthy living. They see detoxing as a
quick fix, a miracle cure, or a much-needed reset
that will let them feel refreshed and anew.
...
47 Detox
A fad
There is not one credible scientific paper that endorses a detox
product, diet, or remedy. A review recently published in the Journal of
Human Nutrition and Dietetics[39] sums it up nicely:
“To the best of our knowledge, no rigorous clinical investigations of
detox diets have been conducted. The handful of studies that have been
published suffer from significant methodological limitations including
small sample sizes, sampling bias, lack of control groups, reliance on
self-report and qualitative rather than quantitative measurements.”
That being said, of course a healthy diet will help your body function
better -- but this is no detox. Ultimately, the best ‘detox’ is not smoking,
exercising regularly, and enjoying a healthy balanced diet that is rich in
fruits and vegetables.
49 Detox
References
(Detox)
34. “Do “Detox” Diets Work? Are They Safe?”, CBS News
35. M. Yang, T. Van Itallie, (1976), “Composition of weight lost during short-
term weight reduction. Metabolic responses of obese subjects to starvation
and low-calorie ketogenic and nonketogenic diets“, The Journal of Clinical
Investigation.
36. Harvard Women’s Health Watch, “The dubious practice of detox“, Harvard
Health Publishing.
37. Scott Gavura, “The one thing you need to know before you detox“, Science-
Based Medicine.
38. “THE DETOX DOSSIER (2009)“, Sense About Science.
39. Alice Klein, Hosen Kiat, (2014), “Detox diets for toxin elimination and
weight management: A critical review of the evidence“, Journal of Human
Nutrition and Dietetics.
50 Climate Change Denial
the Climate
isn’t
changing
We are
changing
it.
51 Climate Change Denial
Climate change
The Earth’s climate is changing, this change is unnatural, and we humans
are causing it. That is the extent of what we know so far.
Lastly, it’s time to address a problem much more complex than
what we’ve dealt with so far: climate change. Sure enough, a counter
movement has also emerged: climate change denial. Groups of people
(often with vested interests) are spreading unwarranted doubts, opposing
the overwhelming scientific evidence, denying that this change is
happening and/or that humans are responsible. The evidence linking
climate change to human activity is so clear it resembles the relationship
between smoking and cancer risk -- in fact, there is more statistical
relevance linking human activity to climate change than smoking to
cancer. Therefore, climate change denial can only be regarded as a
pseudoscience[40].
How do we
know that There is, almost literally,
a mountain of science
climate change is supporting this.
happening?
If you were to pile up all these studies, which tend to have around
20 pages, you’d end up with a pretty impressive mountain of paperwork
supporting climate change[42].
Jokes aside, there are very clear indicators that climate change is
happening, and that it is linked to human activities:
b) oceans are heating up: it’s not just the atmosphere or the land that’s
heating up -- global waters are absorbing much of this heat as well[45].
Overall, 90% of the planet’s excess heat is trapped by oceans.
53 Climate Change Denial
The top 700 meters (2,300 feet) have increased in temperature by 0.4
degrees Fahrenheit since 1969 -- which is particularly concerning
because it takes much more heat to warm 1 liter of water than it
does to warm the same volume of air. This is already affecting water
circulation, global currents, and salinity, with devastating effects for
marine ecosystems.
d) glaciers are shrinking: it’s not just ice sheets -- glaciers all around
the world are receding, from the Himalayas to the Rockies and from
Africa to the Alps. This phenomenon has also been linked[47] to climate
change.
e) CO2 & basic science: several greenhouse gases are significant, but
CO2 is by far the most prevalent. Basic science tells us that we’re burning
a lot of fossil fuels and this process emits huge quantities of CO2, which
is warming the planet.
We have a fairly good idea of how much CO2 we’re emitting (we can
also measure this from satellites): we’re adding a whopping 2.57 million
pounds of carbon dioxide into the air every second[48], and that figure
is growing. Atmospheric and oceanic measurements reveal that CO2
content has increased by about 40% since the start of the Industrial
Revolution in the 19th century. Furthermore, chemical analyses
confirmed that the extra CO2 is indeed coming from industrial activities.
54 Climate Change Denial
Moving on, basic physics tells us that this extra CO2 traps heat through
a process called the greenhouse effect. This has been projected,
observed, and confirmed through various scientific models.
...
...
57 Climate Change Denial
Ending
So, it seems we’ve reached the end of the book. If you’ve made it this
far, we can only thank you for your patience and your interest.
We don’t claim to have all the answers, and we’ve only scratched
the surface here. We hope it will spur your curiosity and critical spirit,
however-- the world sure needs more of that.
58 Climate Change Denial
References
(Climate Change Denial)
40. Saffron J. O’Neill and Max Boykoff, (2010), “Climate denier, skeptic, or
contrarian?“, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America (PNAS).
41. Judy P. Pu et al., (2016), “Dodging snowballs: Geochronology of the
Gaskiers glaciation and the first appearance of the Ediacaran biota“, Geology.
42. Andrei Mihai, “Why climate change denial has almost no scientific
credibility“, ZME Science.
43. “HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset“, University of East Anglia
Climatic Research Unit.
44. “GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)“, NASA.
45. “Climate change: How do we know?“, NASA Climate.
46. “State of the Cryosphere (SOTC): Mountain Glaciers“, National Snow &
Ice Data Center.
47. “World glacier monitoring service“, WGMS.
48. Doyle Rice, “Global carbon dioxide emissions reach record high“, USA
Today.
49. The IPCC AR5 Working Group I, “Summary for Policymakers (SPM)“,
part of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
50. “The 97% consensus on global warming“, Skeptical Science.
51. Riley E. Dunlap, (2013), “Climate Change Skepticism and Denial : An
Introduction“, American Behavioral Scientist.
52. Gayathri Vaidyanathan, “What Have Climate Scientists Learned from 20-
Year Fight with Deniers?“, Scientific American.
53. Pascal Diethelm Martin McKee, (2009), “Denialism: what is it and how
should scientists respond?“, European Journal of Public Health.
54. Neela Banerjee, “Exxon, The Road Not Taken“, Inside Climate News.
55. Mihai Andrei, “9 out of 10 top climate change deniers linked with Exxon
Mobil“, ZME Science.
56. Andrei Mihai, “Trump puts USA against the world, withdrawing from
the Paris Agreement“, ZME Science.