Lecture 4

Probability Tree
Bayes’ Theorem
Probability Tree
• It is a useful graphical technique for analysing and solving problems
that involve conditional probabilities involving several factor.
• It is a useful procedure for solving problems that include multiple
levels of conditional probabilities.
• A tree diagram is a way of simplifying complicated probability
situations.
• A probability tree begins with a “trunk” and involves a series of
“branches” that cover all possible outcomes of an event.
Probability Tree
Toss 1 Toss 2 Toss 3
0.125
0.25
0.125
0.125
0.5
P(H) = 0.5 0.25
0.125
0.125
0.25
P(T) = 0.5 0.125
0.5
0.125
0.25
0.125
Probability Tree
Example: Two spinners in the diagram are used in a
game.
1. Both point to win
2. Both point to lose
3. There is a mixture of win and lose
4
• Example: Julia spins 2 spinners; one of which is labeled 1, 2 and 3,
and the other is labeled 4, 5 and 6.
a) Draw a tree diagram for the experiment.

b) What is the probability that the spinners stop at “3” and “4”?
c) Find the probability that the spinners do not stop at “3” and “4”.
d) What is the probability that the first spinner does not stop at “1”?
The probability that the spinners stop at “3” and “4”
n(S ) = 9
Probability that the spinners stop at (3,4) = 1/9
c) The probability that the spinners do not stop at “3” and
“4”
Probability that the spinners do not stop at (3,4) = 8/9
d) The probability that the first spinner does not stop at “1”
Probability that the first spinner does not stop at “1”= 6/9
= 2/3
Example 2: Box A contains 3 cards numbered 1, 2 and 3. Box B contains
2 cards numbered 1 and 2. One card is removed at random from each
box.
a) Draw a tree diagram to list all the possible outcomes.
b) Find the probability that:
(i) the sum of the numbers is 4
(ii) the sum of the two numbers is even.
(iii) the product of the two numbers is at least 5.
(iv) the sum is equal to the product
Real Life Uses
• Probability trees aren’t just a theoretical tool used in the classroom

• They are used by scientists and statisticians in many branches of
science, research and by several government bodies.
• For example, the Probability tree was used by the Federal
government as part of an early warning program to assess the risk
of more eruptions on Mount Pinatubo, an active volcano in the
Philippines.
Bayes’ Theorem
• It is an important statistical method, which is used in evaluating new
information as well as in revising prior estimates of the probability in
the light of that information.
• P(E1/A) = P(A/E1)P(E1)
ΣP(A/Ei)P(Ei)
Example
• A bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another bag II contains 5
red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the
bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn
from bag II.
A = Drawn ball is red & drawn from bag II

E1 = Bag I
E2 = Bag II
• P(E2/A) = P(E2).P(A/E2)
P(E1).P(A/E1)+P(E2).P(A/E2)
= 1/2 * 5/11
1/2 * 3/7 + 1/2* 5/11
= 0.511
Example
• Given that 3 identical boxes I, II and III each containing two coins. In
box I, both coins are gold coins, in box II both are silver coins and in
the box III there is one Gold and one Silver coin. A person chooses a
box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of Gold, what is the
probability that other coin in the box is also Gold.
• A manufacturing firm receives shipment of parts from two different
suppliers. The historical quality levels of the two suppliers are:
Good Parts(%) Defective Parts(%)
Supplier 1 95 5
Supplier 2 90 10
Suppose supplier 1 supplies 70% and remaining are supplied by

supplier 2. After the parts are received, they are used in a particular
machine. The machine breaks down owing to a defective part. Given
the information that the part is a defective one, what is the probability
that it came from the first supplier or from the second supplier?
• P(E1/D) = P(E1).P(D/E1)
P(E1).P(D/E1) + P(E2).P(D/E2)
= 0.70 x 0.05
(0.70 x 0.05) + (0.30 x 0.10)
= 0.5384
• P(E2/D) = 0.4615
Random Variable
• A random variable is one, which can take a number of different
values, but it is not possible to know which value it does take until
some experiment is performed.
• An experiment takes the form of drawing a sample from a population.
• A random variable is a description of the numeric values that the
outcomes from an experiment can take.
• Random variables are of 2 types:
1. Discrete
2. Continuous
Expected value and Variance of a random
variable
Expected Value
• The mean, µ of a probability distribution is called the expected value
of its random variable.
• Then expected value of a random variable is equal to the weighted
average of all possible outcomes wherein the probability associated
with each of the outcomes serves as the weight.
• E(x) or µ = Σpx
Expected value and Variance of a random
variable
Variance
• Variance is defined as the weighted average of the squared
differences between each value of the variable x and the expected
value of mean µ, where the probability of each outcome serves as the
weightage.
Variance = Σp(x - µ)2
Calculate Expected value and variance for the
probability distribution:
No. of Cakes Probability p px P(x-µ)2
0 0.10 0 0.5290
1 0.20 0.20 0.3380
2 0.20 0.40 0.0180
3 0.35 1.05 0.1715
4 0.10 0.40 0.2890
5 0.05 0.25 0.3645
Total 1.00 2.30 1.7100
• E(x) = Σpx = 2.3
• Variance = Σp(x - µ)2 = 1.71
Classroom assignment
• “An airplane manufacturer has three factories A B and C which
produce 50%, 25%, and 25%, respectively, of a particular airplane.
Seventy percent of the airplanes produced in factory A are passenger
airplanes, 25% of those produced in factory B are passenger
airplanes, and 25% of the airplanes produced in factory C are
passenger airplanes. If an airplane produced by the manufacturer is
selected at random, calculate the probability the airplane will be a
passenger plane.”
• A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball at
random from the bag and replaces it back in the bag. He mixes the
balls in the bag and then picks another ball at random from the bag.
a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.
b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks:
i) two black balls
ii) a black ball in his second draw
It is believed that sales of a firm will rise with a probability of 0.8 if it
advertised for its product. However, sales will still rise with a probability
of 0.15 if it did not advertise for its product. The probability that it will
advertise for its product is 0.9. Find:
i. The probability that sales will not rise
ii. If sales have gone up, what is the probability that firm has not
advertised for its product?
Solution
• E1 = the firm will advertise
• E2 = the firm will not advertise
• A = Sales will rise
P(A’) = P(E1).P(A’/B) + P(E2).P(A’/E2)

= 0.9 x 0.2 + 0.1 x 0.85
= 0.265
P(E2/A) = P(E2).PA/E2) = 0.10 x 0.15 = 15/735

P(A) 0.735
Classroom Assignment
• A certain production process produces items that are 10 percent
defective. Each item is inspected before being supplied to customers
but the inspector incorrectly classifies an item 10 percent of the
times. Only items classified as god are supplied. If 820 items in all
have been supplied, how many are expected to be defective?
Solution
P(E1/A) = P(E1). P(A/E1)
P(E1). P(A/E1) + P(E2). P(A/E2)
= 0.1 x 0.1
0.1 x 0.1 + 0.9 x 0.9
= 0.01/0.82 = 1/82
Required number is N x P = 820 x 1/82
= 10

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Probability Tree

a) Draw a tree diagram for the experiment.

• Probability trees aren’t just a theoretical tool used in the classroom

A = Drawn ball is red & drawn from bag II

Suppose supplier 1 supplies 70% and remaining are supplied by

P(A’) = P(E1).P(A’/B) + P(E2).P(A’/E2)

P(E2/A) = P(E2).PA/E2) = 0.10 x 0.15 = 15/735

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