PROBABILITY THEORY

Experiment – any process that generates data

Outcomes – all the possible results of an experiment.

Sample space – is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. It can be represented in a variety of ways: set notation,
Venn diagrams, possibility space diagrams and tables, tree diagrams.

Event – a specific outcome of an experiment. An event is a subset of the sample space.

Probability – the measure of how likely an event is.

Consider the following example:

An unbiased die is thrown. What are the chances of it landing on 1?

Experiment : Throwing a die

Possible outcomes : Landing on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. There are 6 possible outcomes.

Sample space : { 1,2 ,3, 4, 5, 6}

Event : Landing on 1

Let A be the event “the die lands on 1”

# of outcomes of A 1
Then P(A)  
total # of outcomes 6

This is an example of classical probability. It is based on the fact that all outcomes are equally likely.

# of outcomes of A
Classical probability formula: Probability of event A, P(A) 
total # of outcomes

Now suppose we use a biased die. We cannot use classical probability formula to calculate probabilities. In this case we have
to carry out an experiment and throw the die a large number of times. Suppose we throw the die 1000 times and the results
are as follows:
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 100 216 182 135 170 197

100 216 182 135 170 197

We could then assign the probabilities , , , , , to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 respectively. These are
1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
called the relative frequencies of the outcomes and can be used to estimate probability.

# of times 1 occured 100 1

Thus P(1)   
total # of outcomes 1000 10

This is an example of experimental probability.

You should realise that if we roll the die another 1000 times, the results would probably not be exactly the same, but you
would hope that they would not be too different. We could roll the die more times and hope to improve the relative frequency
as an approximation to probability.

Sometimes we cannot assign probability using either of these two ways. For example, there is a chance that my house could
be struck by lightning next year. Suppose I wanted to insure my house against this happening, the insurance company would
have probability in mind when calculating the premium I have to pay. But it cannot do so by classical or experimental means.
It will assign probability using its experience of such matters and its records. This is an example of subjective probability.

Discussion:
How would you assign probabilities to the following activities/experiments?
(a) Choosing a card from a standard pack of playing cards
(b) The combined experiment of tossing a coin and rolling a die?
(c) Tossing a drawing pin on to a table to see whether it lands point up or point down.
(d) Four international football teams Argentina, Brazil, Spain and Portugal play a knockout tournament.
Who will be the winner?
 Some basic results on probability

When probabilities are assigned to outcomes in a sample space :

 Each probability must lie between 0 and 1
that is0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
 The sum of all probabilities assigned must be equal to 1
that is ∑ 𝑃(𝐴) = 1
 If 𝑃(𝐴) = 0 the event cannot possibly occur
 If 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 the event is certain to occur
 The probability that an event will not occur 𝑃(𝐴̅)is given by
𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
𝐴 and ̅𝐴 are called complementary events.
 If A and B are any two events of the same experiment, such that 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0 and 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0,
then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
 OR means ‘add’ and AND means ‘multiply’

Examples
(1) A fair 20-sided die has 8 faces coloured red, 10 faces coloured blue and 2 faces coloured green. The die is rolled. Find
the probability that the bottom face (a) is red (b) is not blue (c) is orange.

(2) The numbers 1, 2, …,9 are written on separate cards. The cards are shuffled and the top one is turned over. Calculate the
probability that the number on this card is prime.

(3) The table summarizes all the results of the driving tests taken at a test centre.

Male Female
Pass 32 43
Fail 9 16

A person is chosen at random from those who took the test.

(a) Find the probability that the person (i) passed the driving test
(ii) was a female who failed the driving test
(b) A male is chosen. What is the probability that he did not pass the test.

(4) In a class there are 50 students who are studying either Maths or Physics or both. 35 students study Maths and 19
Students study Physics. If a student is selected at random, find the probability that he/she is studying
(a) both Maths and Physics (b) Physics only

Mutually Exclusive Events

If an event A can occur or an event B can occur but not both A and B can occur, then the two events A and B
are said to be mutually exclusive. When A and B are mutually exclusive then
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

Examples:
(1) A number is chosen from the set of integers from 1 to 10 inclusive. If A is the event ‘the number is odd’ and B is the
event ‘the number is a multiple of 4’ then A and B are mutually exclusive, as an event cannot be both odd and a multiple
of 4.
(2) Two men are standing for election as chairman of a committee. Let C be the event ‘Mr. Ash is elected’ and D be the
event ‘Mr. Brown is elected’. Then C and D are mutually exclusive since both cannot be elected chairman.

Dependent Events

When two events A and B are dependent, the outcome or occurrence of the first affects
the outcome or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed.

Examples:
(i) Mr. Beaker needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his class of 18 girls and 12 boys. He
randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the room. He then chooses a second student from those
still seated. What is the probability that both students chosen are girls?

(ii) Four cards are chosen form a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the probability of choosing a ten, a
nine, an eight and a seven in that order.
 Independent Events

If either of the events A and B can occur without being affected by the other, then the two events are
independent and we have 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

Questions:
1. In a game, a contestant has to first spin a fair coin and the roll a fair die. The contestant wins a prize if the coin shows a
head and the die score is below 3. Find the probability that a contestant wins the prize.

2. The probability that an event A occurs is 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.3. The event B is independent of A and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.3. Calculate the
probability P(A or B or both).

Mixed Questions
1. A card is drawn from an ordinary pack for 52 playing cards. Find the probability that the card is
(a) a club or a diamond (b) a club or a king

2. Two fair dice are thrown, a prize is won if the total is 10 or if each individual score is over 4. Are these events mutually
exclusive? Find the probability that a prize is won.

3. In a group of 20 adults, 4 out of the 7 women and 2 out of the 13 men wear glasses. What is the probability that a person
chosen at random from the group is a woman who wears glasses?

4. Kelly has three playing cards : two queens and a king. Travis selects one of the cards at random and returns it to
Kelly, who shuffles the cards. Travis then selects a second card. Travis wins if both cards selected are queens.
(a) List the elements in the sample space (b) Find the probability that Travis wins.

5. A coin and a die are thrown together. Draw a possibility space diagram and use it to find the probability of obtaining
(a) a head (b) a number greater than 4
(c) a head and a number greater than 4 (d) a head or a number greater than 4
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6. A dice with six faces has been made from brass and aluminium and is not fair. The probability of obtaining a 6 is4. The
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probabilities of 2,3,4 and 5 are each and the probability of 1 is . The die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling
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(a) 1 or 6 (b) an even number.

7. A circular wheel is divided into 3 equal sectors, numbered 1, 2 and 3. The wheel is spun twice. Each time, the score is the
number to which a black arrow points.
(a) Write/illustrate down the possibility space in two different ways.
Use your possibility space diagram to find the probabilities of the following events:
(b) both scores are the same (c) neither score is a 2
(d) at least one of the scores is a 3 (e) neither score is a 2 and both scores are the same
(f) neither score is a 2 or both scores are the same

8. A survey carried out in a town revealed that 25% of the households surveyed own a laptop computer and 70% owned a
desktop computer. In addition, it was found that 12% owned both a laptop and a desktop computer. If a sample of
households from the town is selected at random, determine the proportion that own neither a laptop or a desktop computer

9. A fair die is thrown once. Find the probabilities that the score is
(a) bigger than 3 (b) bigger than or equal to 3
(c) an prime number (d) bigger than 3 and a prime number
(e) bigger than 3 or a prime number or both (f) bigger than 3 or a prime number but not both

10. In shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers are randomly selected and tested. What is the
probability that all three are defective if the first and second ones are not replaced after being checked?

11. In a group of 30 students, all study at least one of the subjects Physics and Biology. 20 attend Physics class and 21 attend
Biology. Find the probability that a student chosen at random studies both Physics and Biology.

12. You draw two cards from an ordinary pack. Find the probability that they are not both kings.

13. From an ordinary pack of playing cards, the 7 of diamonds has been lost. A card is dealt from the well-shuffled pack.
Find the probability that it is (a) a diamond (b) a queen (c) a diamond or a queen (d) a diamond or a 7

14. Stefan carried out an experiment in which 16 coins were tossed together. The number of tails obtained from tossing the
coins was counted this procedure was carried out ten times in all and the results were
Number of tails: 9, 7, 8, 6, 10, 7, 5, 5, 8, 9
(a) Use Stefan’s data to calculate the probability of obtaining a tail.
The experiment was continued until the 16 coins were each tossed 100 times
(b) Calculate the total number of tails that Dan would expect to obtain.
15. In a race in which there are no dead heats, the probability that Jon wins is 0.3, the probability that Paul wins is 0.2 and
The probability that Ken wins is 0.4. Find the probability that
(a) Jon or Ken wins (b) someone else other than Jon or Paul or Ken wins.

16. A fair die with faces numbered 1 to 6 is thrown four times. Find the probability that three of the four throws result in a 6.

17. A fair die is thrown twice. Find the probability that (a) neither throw results in a 4 (b) at least one throw results in a 4

18. In a group of 120 girls, each is either freckled or blonde or both.; 80 are freckled and 60 are blonde. A girl is to be
chosen at random from the group. A is the event ‘a freckled girl is chosen’; B is the event ‘a blonde girl is chosen’.
(a) Calculate 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) (b) State, giving a reason, whether A and B are independent events.
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19. The probability that it will be sunny tomorrow is 3. If it is sunny, the probability that Crystal plays tennis is 5. If it is not
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sunny, the probability that Crystal plays tennis is 5.Find the probability that Crystal plays tennis tomorrow.

Conditional Probability

Consider a class of 30 pupils, of whom 17 are girls and 13 are boys. Suppose further that 5 of the girls and 6 of the boys are
left-handed and all the remaining pupils are right-handed. If a pupil is selected at random from the whole class then the
5+6 11
chance that he or she is left-handed is 30 = 30. However, suppose now that a pupil is selected at random from the girls in the
5
class. The chance that this girl is left-handed is 17. so being told that the selected pupil is a girl alters the probability. This is
an example of conditional probability. The probability has been calculated on the basis of an extra condition which you have
been given.

Let A and B be two events such that 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0, then the conditional probability that A has occurred given
that B has already occurred is written as 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) where

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

Therefore, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)

Note also A and B are independent, then 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)

Note that of A and B are mutually exclusive, then 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 0.

5
P( L  G ) 5
So in the above example: P( L G )   30  .
P(G) 17 17
30

Questions:
1. Given that a heart is picked at random from a pack of playing cards, find the probability that it is a picture card (king,
queen, jack).

2. When a die is thrown an odd number occurs. Find the probability that this number is prime.

3. A card is picked at random from a pack of 20 cards labelled 1 to 20. Given that the card shows an even number, find the
probability that it is a multiple of 4.

4. Events A and B are such that 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 0.25, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.12
(a) Calculate the value of 𝑃(𝐵)
(b) Give a reason why A and B are not independent
(c) Calculate the value of 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅)

RECAP: These 3 results are particularly useful. LEARN THEM

Dependent events: 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)……………Conditional probability

Mutually exclusive events: 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Independent events: 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
 Probability trees/Tree diagrams

A useful way of tackling many probability problems is to draw a probability tree. The method is illustrated in the following
example:

A box contains 6 red pens and 3 blue pens. A pen is selected at random, its colour noted but it is not replaced in the box.
This procedure is performed a second time. Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the probabilities.

In practice, we can label our tree more simply as follows:

How to use the tree:

(i) Multiply probabilities along the branches to get the end results.
(ii) On any set of branches that meet at a point, the probabilities must add up to 1.
(iii) Check that the end results add up to 1.
(iv) To answer any question, find the end results. If more than one satisfy the
requirements, add these end results together.

Use the tree diagram to find the probability of obtaining

(i) two red pens (ii) two blue pens (iii) a red pen and a blue pen in any order.

A third pen is chosen. Add another branch to the tree and use it to find the probability of choosing two blue pens and a red
pen in any order.

Repeat the example but this time find the probabilities if, at each selection, the pen is not returned to the box.

Questions on tree diagrams:

1. A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of obtaining two heads and a tail?

2. The probability that I am late for work is 0.05. Find the probability that on two consecutive mornings
(a) I am late for work twice (b) I am late for work once
1
3. The probability that Candice has to wait at the traffic lights on her way to school is 4. Find the probability that on two
consecutive mornings Candice has to wait on the traffic lights at least once.

4. Nicholaus makes writing pens. Alan is hired to check the quality of the product. Alan tested a random sample of pens
from a large batch and calculated that the probability of any pen being defective is 0.025. Yvanna buys two of the pens
made by Nicholaus. Find the probability that (i) both pens are defective (ii) exactly one of the pens is defective.
 2 1
5. In a certain selection of flower seeds, 3 have been treated to improve germination and 3 have not been treated. The seeds
4 1
which have been treated have a probability of germination of whereas the untreated seeds have a probability of .
5 2
(a) Find the probability that a seed selected at random will germinate.
The seeds were sown and given time to germinate.
(b) Find the probability that a seed selected at random had been treated, given that it had germinated.

6. The probability of hiring a taxi from garage A, B or C is 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2 respectively. The probability that the taxi
ordered will be late from A is 0.07, from B is 0.1 and from C is 0.2.
(i) Illustrate this information on a tree diagram showing the probability on all branches.
(ii) A garage is chosen at random. Determine the probability that
a) the taxi will arrive late
b) the taxi will come from garage C, given that it is late.

Some useful methods

(a) Problems involving an “at least” situation.

Question (i) Find the probability of obtaining at least one six when five dice are thrown.
(ii) Find the probability of obtaining at least one six when n dice are thrown
(iii) How many dice must be thrown so that the probability is at least 0.99

(b) Problems involving the use of an infinite geometric progression

Question Joe an Pete both play a game in which they each throw a die until someone throws a six. The person who
throws the six wins the game. Joe starts the game. Find the probability that he wins.

Try these
1. A coin is biased so that the probability that it falls showing tails is 0.75.
(a) Find the probability of obtaining at least one head when the coin is tossed five times.
(b) How many times must the coin be tossed so that the probability of obtaining at least one head is greater than
0.98

2. A box contains five black balls and one white ball. Alan and Bill take turns to draw a ball from the
box, starting with Alan. The first boy to draw the white ball wins the game.

(a) Assuming that they do not replace the balls as they draw them out, find the probability that
Bill wins the game.

(b) If the game is changed so that in the new game they replace the ball after it has been drawn
out, find the probabilities that:
(i) Alan wins at his first attempt.
(ii) Alan wins at his second attempt.
(iii) Alan wins at his third attempt.
(iv) Show that these answers are terms in a geometric progression. Hence find the probability that Alan
wins the game.

Revision Sheet # 14 –Probability

1. The scores obtained by students in a test were recorded as follows:

Scores 0 1 2 3 4 5
Frequency 1 4 7 10 18 10

What is the probability that a student chosen at random scores (i) 3 (ii) less than 2 marks

2. A single card is picked at random from an ordinary pack of playing cards. Determine the probability of obtaining an
ace or a king or the ten of hearts.

3. Two dice are rolled. Draw a possibility space diagram to represent the sum of the outcomes. Determine the
probability that the sum is even or a multiple of 3.

4. A glass jar contains 5 red, 3 blue and 2 green jelly beans.

(i) A jellybean is chosen from the jar. Find the probability that the jelly bean is not blue.
(ii) If instead, 3 jelly beans are chosen from the jar. Find the probability of choosing two greens and a blue.

5. A jar contains 3 red, 2 blue , 5 green and 6 yellow marbles. A marble is chosen at random and replaced from the jar.
After replacing it a second marble is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a green and a yellow marble?
6. A fair coin is flipped and the result is either head (H) or tail (T).
(i) Fill in the given table
X-event H T
P(X)
(ii) State clearly why the flipping of a coin is an equiprobable event.
(iii) (a) If the coin is tossed a second time, list all the possible outcomes for these two tosses.
(b) In the second toss find the probability that the outcome is H.
(iv) In the two tosses, find the probability that both tosses give the same result.
(v) What is the probability of getting T in the third toss of the coin?

7. Two dice are rolled and the events A to D are defined as follows:
A – the sum of the numbers is 10
B –a double is obtained
C – sum is less than 4
D – sum is less than 7
State whether or not each of the following events are mutually exclusive:
(i) A and B (ii) B and C (iii) C and D (iv) A and D

8. A class was given two tests 𝑇1 and 𝑇2 . 25% of the students passes both tests and 42% passed the first test, 𝑇1 . Find
the probability that a student passed the second test 𝑇2 , given that they had also passed the first test.

9. Find the probability of drawing two aces in two picks from a standard pack of playing cards given that the first card
is an ace.

10. Two ordinary dice are rolled. Find the probability that their sum is odd given that only one of their scores is a 3.

11. A box contains 12 nut chocolates and 8 fruit chocolates. Two chocolates are chosen at random from the box. Draw a
tree diagram to illustrate the probabilities. Use your diagram to find the probability that:
(i) both chocolates are nut chocolates
(ii) one is nut and the other is fruit.

12. A computer program generates questions in arithmetic that children have to answer within a fixed time. The
probability of the question being answered correctly is 0.8. Whenever a question is answered correctly, the next
question generated is more difficult and the probability of a correct answer being given is reduced by 0.1. Whenever
a question is answered wrongly, the next question is of the same standard and the probability of a correct answer
remains unchanged. By drawing a tree diagram, illustrate all the possible outcomes.
(i) Find the probability that the second question is answered correctly.
(ii) By extending the tree diagram or otherwise, find the probability that the third question is answered correctly.

13. A bag contains 4 red marbles, 3 black marbles and 3 blue marbles. Three marbles are drawn at random without
replacement from the bag. Find the probability that the marbles
(i) drawn are ALL of the same colour
(ii) contain EXACTLY one red marble

14. Two people A and B play a game. An ordinary die is thrown and the first person to throw a 4 wins. A and B take
turns to throw the die starting with A. Find the probability that B wins.
1
15. For a certain strain of wallflower, the probability that when sown, a seed produces a plant with yellow flowers is 6.
Find the minimum number of seeds that should be sown in order that the probability of obtaining at least one plant
with yellow flowers is greater than 0.98
13 9 5
16. Given 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = and 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = , find
25 25 9
(i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
(ii) 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
(iii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
(iv) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵′ )
(v) 𝑃(𝐴′|𝐵′)