Los Angeles Convention Center: Expansion Project
Los Angeles Convention Center: Expansion Project
Los Angeles Convention Center: Expansion Project
SEC TI ON
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The City of Los Angeles is considering two alternative procurement approaches to the expansion, operation, and long-
term maintenance of the Los Angeles Convention Center (LACC). One approach involves a traditional Construction
Manager/General Contractor (CM/GC) delivery method with the design work performed by Populous, the construction
competitively bid and awarded to a general contractor at risk, with all the work being funded through the City. The
alternative approach is to award the project to a developer who would design, build, finance, operate and maintain
(DBFOM) the facility. The City has engaged HOK/Arup to develop the design concept which would be delivered via
DBFOM. The City is to evaluate these two options for value for money to determine which provides the greatest
benefit.
MGAC was retained to provide an independent review of both schemes to provide input to the business case/value for
money analysis being developed for the expansion.
Our analysis is based on assessing the Total Life Costs for the two schemes. Total Life Costs are derived from assessing
the condition of an asset to determine its needs over the near, intermediate, and long term. Total Life Costs, also
referred to as the Costs of Ownership, include the capital cost (i.e. hard and soft costs of construction) of a chosen
capital improvement plan as well as the asset’s “lifecycle costs”, which are estimated future capital investment
requirements to refurbish, refresh, and/or replace an asset’s building elements and components as they reach the end
of their design or useful life.
Accordingly, we have:
• reviewed the capital cost projections provided by both Populous and HOK/Arup for their respective schemes
and from these projections we have developed our own capital cost opinion, and a comparison between the two
schemes;
• reviewed and provided our opinion on the life-cycle cost analysis provided by HOK/Arup for the DBFOM scheme,
developed our own analysis for the CM/GC scheme and provided a comparison between the two;
• reviewed the timelines for development of the two schemes and provided our own opinion on the likely schedule
for these projects.
In summary we have developed the following cost projections for the two schemes:
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The result of our study for the DBFOM scheme is an estimate of construction cost (escalated to a start date of December
2017) of $890 million, which with the addition of indirect costs (design fees, project administration etc.) rises to a total of
$1.128 billion. This total is approximately 15% higher than the figures provided to us by Arup for that scheme.
For the CM/GC option we have estimated the construction cost (escalated to a start date of July 2018) at $515 million,
which with the addition of indirect costs calculates to a $720 million project cost. The estimated construction cost represents a
significantly higher cost (50% higher) than the estimate provided by Populous, at $350 million. We assume that this difference in cost
can be equally divided between scope differences and pricing differences in the estimates. In the scope category we have included
building areas from the Facility Program which are greater than those in the Populous estimate, plus we have included code, seismic
and other required upgrades to the existing buildings which were not included in the Populous estimate. (We have included the same
building upgrade factors to the estimate for the DBFOM scheme.) We expect the pricing differences to be in unit price and quantity
allowances in addition to the contingency budgets, general conditions and escalation allowance differences we have been able to
specifically identify.
The second aspect of our review is an assessment of the lifecycle/refurbishment requirements of the two different schemes presented
to us. In an effort to provide an “apples to apples” comparison, a common 40 year investment horizon has been determined for the
assessment. However, the approach and design schemes are fundamentally different and are reflected in significant differences in
initial capital investment.
For purposes of the review, lifecycle costs include the future anticipated capital investment requirements to refurbish, refresh and/or
replace building elements and components as they reach the end of their design or useful life. This includes such items as carpeting,
interior finishes, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems (HVAC), roof coverings, life safety & security systems, windows,
exterior building elements, electrical components, etc. Lifecycle costs do not include, nor are they intended to replace, normal
ongoing and day-to-day operations, maintenance, repair and energy expenditures.
Both of the schemes include reuse of existing space and systems and as such, there has to be a reconciliation of the lifecycle costs
associated with each scheme. To support this, a model has been developed that calculates a current replacement value (CRV) of
the elemental components of the facility based on the proposed total space (new and existing) multiplied by a commonly-applied
unit cost of construction/replacement. Different factors have been developed for the South and West Halls to recognize their age
difference and the impending heritage status of the West Hall. Using the methodology noted above, a formula-driven indicative
lifecycle estimate has been determined for 40 years and added to the overall total for each approach. Typically, cost projections fall
into an expected high to low range. For purposes of this analysis, the mid-point has been utilized in all calculations.
There is no current comprehensive condition assessment of the existing buildings and the review has relied on project briefs and
other background information provided by the Bureau of Engineering, among others.
In the absence of a detailed condition assessment, particularly with respect to the West Hall, it is assumed that the facility and its
elements are generally at the end of its normal service life and will require a significant refurbishment and modernization in the short
term in order to be consistent with the new and renovated portions of the Convention Center and provide the required functional
program space. Following the upgrades, the West Hall would then be subject to normal lifecycle re-investment levels for a building
of its age and historical status. An amount of $105 million has been included in the lifecycle requirements of the CM/GC model to
address upgrades to mechanical, electrical and architectural elements of the building. This has been calculated on the basis of $125
per square foot which represents approximately 25% of the unit cost for new construction. Work of this nature may trigger additional
requirements related to code standards and this provision should be considered a conservative minimum threshold of investment.
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Based on the design proposals and background information provided by the key stakeholders, 40 year lifecycle profiles have been
developed for each scheme that include projected future costs for both the new and existing areas that will comprise the expanded
and renovated Los Angeles Convention Center at the end of the construction period. The projections are subject to change resulting
from modifications to the project scope during the detailed design development stage. The summarized recommended lifecycle
estimates at net present value are approximately $490 million for the DBFOM approach and $780 million for the CM/GC approach over
a 40 year period.
Finally, we have reviewed the schedule information provided for the alternative schemes.
The schedule for the DBFOM approach assumes a start to the CEQA/EIR/Planning and Council approval process in March 2016. We are
already beyond this date. Within the schedule the design process is projected to be of 10 months duration and we believe that this is
somewhat aggressive and would project a 12-15 month duration for design. The schedule projects overall completion of the project
in January 2021. Given the delayed start to the process and our recommendation for a longer design period, we would suggest
completion by mid 2021 assuming that the approval to proceed would be imminent.
The CM/GC approach projects an overall timespan of 52 months. Based upon a project commencement in June 2016, the project
would be completed in October 2020. We agree with this assessment.
It should be noted that the schedule duration is directly affected by Populous’ indication that the design and construction phases
would overlap by 5 months. Construction is projected to commence 5 months before the design is complete and in this approach
bids would be sought with incomplete documents. While this can be advantageous from a time perspective, it typically adds to the
risk of prices increasing after initial contract award. We have attempted to capture this in our price risk assessment within the capital
cost projection.
4
SECTION TWO
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
SEC TI ON
5
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY
CAPITAL COST
We have reviewed, for reasonableness, the estimates provided by the consultant teams for both the CM/C and DBFOM
schemes and have developed our own opinion of capital cost from this review. Our review focused on the cost
allowances for each component/system within the buildings (new and renovated space) and from this, we developed a
comparison of capital cost between the two schemes. The estimates provided were at a Uniformat Level II level of detail
and are based on program/concept level information. Given the preliminary nature of the information provided, the cost
review should be treated as an order of magnitude cost review with a predicted accuracy of +/- 15%.
For each of the system cost allowances we have developed a cost projection based upon the program, concept layouts
and our walk-throughs of the existing facility. We have developed cost data for each building system and site component
based upon the requirements of the project, referencing current market conditions in the Los Angeles area in order to
apply appropriate labor and material cost factors.
In addition, MGAC has evaluated appropriate contingencies for the two schemes as currently conceptualized and in
consideration of the different delivery models as follows:
1. Design development
The first contingency relates to development of the design, covering items that estimators simply cannot anticipate
at this early stage of project definition. It is customary for this contingency to be in the range of 10-15% of base
construction cost at this stage of the project. We have applied this at 10% for both schemes.
2. Phasing
The second contingency we have applied relates to the phasing of the work. The Convention Center has stated that the
facility needs to be fully operational throughout the construction phase and while we have not developed a detailed
plan for how the construction work would be performed, we do believe that construction will need to be phased such
that the convention center is minimally impacted throughout. This would require temporary works to be constructed
and then removed, we also anticipate a premium cost with off hours working and the potential sub-optimal use of labor
and equipment at times. We have applied a phasing contingency to both schemes, since the requirement for a fully
functional Convention Center applies to both.
3. Escalation
A third contingency covers the escalation of costs in this market place. The escalation forecast for Los Angeles
Convention Center project has been developed using both a quantitative analysis and qualitative assessment. Location
specific construction cost indices, the ENR Building Cost Index and RS Means Construction Cost Index are used to
formulate our baseline forecast; broader macroeconomic indicators are screened to check the baseline forecast and to
form insights for the future construction industry outlook. Project specific conditions such as the bidding environment
are evaluated in order to arrive at a recommended construction escalation rate specifically for the Los Angeles
Convention Center project.
Based on our analysis, we recommend an annual escalation rate of 4% for the Los Angeles Convention Center project to
the projected construction start dates. The main reasons are summarized below:
• Our baseline forecast using location-specific five-year historical indexes from the ENR Building Cost Index and RS
Means Cost Index yields an annual escalation rate of roughly 2%. The forecast is in line with the broader market
indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). However, it should be noted that
both the ENR index and RS Means index are calculated based on a combination of common construction materials
and labor costs with fixed weights on each cost composite, thus only represent the average building construction
costs across the Los Angeles region at best. Therefore, the baseline forecast should be treated as a lower bound
estimate and should be adjusted based on the analysis of other factors specifically for the Los Angeles Convention
Center project.
6
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
APPROACH
• The construction labor shortage, especially the skilled labor shortage, is a major construction cost driver currently
in the Los Angeles area. The construction unemployment rate is lower than that at the national level, and the
construction wage is increasing faster than the national average. Given the complexity of the project, the skilled
labor shortage would be felt more strongly and thus an additional 1% cost increase is added to the baseline forecast.
• Considering the scale and complexity of the project, the bidding environment is expected to be less competitive as
the qualified firms are limited. Based on academic research and our evaluation of potential bidder environment for
the Convention Center project, a 1% bidder environment markup has been applied on top of the baseline forecast.
4. Risk
Finally there is a general risk contingency, or “construction contingency”. The differences between the delivery methods
consider risk allocation and this needs to be factored. Issues to be considered include the likelihood of design errors and
omissions, change order risk and probability, level of owner input required during design and construction as well as
market and procurement risk.
With the traditional CM/GC project delivery, all risk lies with the Owner in respect of design errors, omissions, and
potential change orders for missed scope and differing conditions. Resultant cost overruns on largescale public projects
delivered via a CM/GC approach in this market place have been well documented. These may have been minimized
by better planning, oversight and more stringent change order control, nonetheless history shows that final costs on
largescale public projects have exceeded budgets and often by significant amounts. It is challenging to develop a
reliable analysis of cost variances on these projects. Where projects appear to be on budget, they may be delivering
significantly less program, performance or scope than was originally intended. Others may have received budget
augmentation along the way. So there is no consistent record of project costs which includes the initial budget and
scope requirement lined up against final cost and scope delivered. However there is extensive data and anecdotal
evidence speaking to the greater risk transfer with CM/GC projects and we have attempted to capture this with our
statistical analysis.
Conversely, with DBFOM procurement, most design and construction risk is borne by the DBFOM entity. We say most,
because it is absolutely critical that the Owner provides a Basis of Design document that effectively and completely
defines and describes every element of the project. If this is not provided, the DBFOM entity will use its discretion on
the quality and suitability of elements not defined. Typically, the measure of these items is what has the least cost to the
Design-Builder.
The result of our analysis on risk is to add an 8% risk factor to the DBFOM scheme and a 14% factor to the CM/GC for the
reasons stated above.
In the paper Investigation of Bid Price Competition Measured through Prebid Project Estimates, Actual Bid Prices, and Number of Bidders, Paul G. Carr quantitatively analyzed a data set of 243
construction project bids and discovered that when the bidding environment is less competitive (number of bidders ranges from 1 to 4), the low bid deviates from the estimate by 1% to as large as
15%.
7
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
CM/GC OPTION
BASIS OF ESTIMATE/REFERENCES
• Site visit to review existing conditions
• Discussions with the Architect, City representatives and Operations staff at the Convention Center
• Facility Program, for Los Angeles Convention Center Expansion and Renovation (October 21, 2015)
• LACC Expansion & Renovation – Concept Validation, Volume Two – Drawings dated June 8, 2016
• LACC Expansion & Renovation – Concept Validation, Volume Three - Narratives and Reports, June 8, 2016
ASSUMPTIONS
General
• The project will be procured under a single construction contract
• The project will be competitively bid for all sub-contract works
• The phasing and sequencing of the work will be determined by the General Contractor in order to meet the
proposed / required schedule - premium for phasing requirements is included in the cost plan based on a
percentage factor of trade costs
• The facilities are required to be in full operation during construction
• Contractor staging and parking will be made available on or adjacent to the site
8
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
CM/GC OPTION
ASSUMPTIONS
New construction assumptions
• Normal ground conditions assumed - rock excavation and soil mitigation are excluded
• The building will be founded on conventional spread footings and continuous wall footings
• The new addition will be structurally separated from the existing building - seismic joint covers are provided
between new and existing structure
• The structural framing system is assumed to be similar to the existing structure - reinforced concrete flat slab on the
lower floor with reinforced concrete shear walls for the lateral load resisting system at level +250', structures above
level 250' will be framed with structural steel for both gravity and lateral framed resisting systems. Steel framing is
based on an average structural steel weight of 28 pounds per square foot. All steel will be fireproofed.
• Structural support to curtain walls, new air walls and catwalks is included
• Structural modifications to the existing deck at El+250' to suit new loading capacity is included
• Exterior façade treatment assumes a combination of composite metal panel system, glazed curtain walls (to
approximately 20% of the exterior walls) and plastered CMU walls at the back of house areas
• Roofing includes single ply membrane roofing and precast concrete pavers to plaza and terraces - an allowance is
also provided for green roof construction
• Interior construction includes all fixed walls and operable partitions to exhibit halls, ballroom and meeting rooms. It
also includes new doors and interior glazing. Acoustical doors are provided to function spaces
• The allowance for interior finishes is based on the following:
• Exhibit hall - sealed concrete floor, paint to walls and exposed ceiling with allowance for acoustical ceiling
panels
• Ballroom - carpet, a combination of upholstered acoustical wall panels and wall covering to walls, stretch fabric
ceilings
• Meeting rooms - carpet to floors, a combination of upholstered acoustical wall panels, wall covering and
painted gypsum board to walls, acoustical ceiling panels
• Public toilets - ceramic floor and wall tiles, and painted gypsum board ceilings
• Pre-function areas - carpet to floors, a combination of veneered plastered walls and wall covering, architectural
grade gypsum board ceilings
• Back-of house areas - sealed concrete floors, painted gypsum board with wall protection panel up to 4' high,
exposed ceilings
• Plating Kitchen/ Pantries/Kitchen - quarry floor tiling, FRP wall panels and washable ceiling tiles
• Building support spaces - linoleum flooring/sealed concrete, painted walls and acoustical ceiling tiles
• Interior fittings and specialties are provided based on cost/sf allowances
• Fixed furniture to support spaces are included
• Fifteen (15) passenger elevators, two (2) freight elevators and two (2) service elevators are included
• Twenty-one (21) escalators are included
• Plumbing includes sanitary fixtures, waste, vent, domestic water pipework systems, floor and roof drainage, natural
gas, compressed air and industrial cold water to exhibition hall floor boxes, kitchen service connections and grease
waste - fuel/oil separation systems
9
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
CM/GC OPTION
ASSUMPTIONS
• HVAC includes hi-efficiency central heating and chilling, thermal ice storage, distribution pipework, roof-mounted
air handlers/vehicle exhaust at exhibition halls, 24/7 cooling, terminal reheat, stair pressurization, kitchen exhaust,
pollution control units, air distribution and controls
• Electrical includes normal, emergency, machine, equipment and user convenience power, floor box power and
data, lighting, telephone/data, A/V (conduit only), fire alarm and security. (A/V equipment and cabling allowances
included in our project costs – not construction)
• Fire protection includes automatic wet sprinklers, fire department hose valve connection points at stairwells and fire
water booster systems
Site Work
• Site improvements to the existing Gilbert Lindsey Plaza
• Surfacing, landscaping and furnishings to proposed deck terraces – waterproofing to the deck is included with the
building construction budget
• An allowance is included to upgrade the entire finished site (except areas allocated for future development)
• An allowance to cover sidewalk and street improvement that will be impacted by demolition / renovation is included
in the cost plan
• Modifications to Pico Boulevard between Figueroa Street and LA Live Way
• Reconfiguration of the loading dock ramp and Convention Center Drive
• Screen walls between the new construction and the freeway
• Upgrades to exterior signage
• Site utilities include domestic and fire water, water realignment, sewer, storm drainage, site lighting, natural
gas, CHW/HHW pipework distribution across Pico Blvd., 35/4.16 kV normal power equipment and cabling,
telecommunications and signals connections to existing infrastructure.
10
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
CM/GC OPTION
11
City of Los Angeles
Los Angeles Convention Center Expansion Project
June 17, 2016
MGAC Populous
TOTAL TOTAL
SF $/SF $x 1,000 SF $/SF $x 1,000
Note:
1. For comparison purposes - Populous cost estimate is reformatted to match the ICE (FF&E and Permit & Testing Fees are shown as part of project soft costs)
2.The BOE's percentage factor of 4% for local government fees/ permits and testing fees is applied to Populous estimate (in lieu of 1.4% noted in Populous cost model)
3 .FF&E value is shown as part of Soft Costs to line up with ICE
4. Project soft costs shown in BOE's project budget soft costs are applied in Populous Cost Model - for comparisonwith ICE
12
City of Los Angeles
Los Angeles Convention Center Expansion Project
June 17, 2016
13
City of Los Angeles
Los Angeles Convention Center Expansion Project
June 17, 2016
TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
$/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $/SF $ X 1,000 $ X 1,000
1,184,049 SF 975,000 SF 332,347 SF 2,491,396 SF 181,625 SF 99,000 SF 70,000 SF 144,716 SF 117,918 SF 10,000 SF 693,961 SF 40,419 SF 90,000 SF 302,980 SF 181,830 SF
A10 Foundations 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 17.33 3,148 17.33 1,716 17.33 1,213 17.33 2,508 17.33 2,044 17.33 173 15.56 10,801 10,801
A20 Basement Construction 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
A Substructure 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 17.33 3,148 17.33 1,716 17.33 1,213 17.33 2,508 17.33 2,044 17.33 173 15.56 10,801 10,801
B10 Superstructure 2.79 3,308 3.85 3,750 4.07 1,353 3.38 8,411 138.35 25,128 138.35 13,697 138.35 9,685 138.35 20,021 138.35 16,314 138.35 1,384 124.25 86,228 94,639
B20 Exterior Enclosure 2.46 2,910 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.17 2,910 66.00 11,987 66.00 6,534 66.00 4,620 66.00 9,551 66.00 7,783 66.00 660 59.28 41,135 44,045
B30 Roofing 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 30.18 5,481 30.18 2,988 30.18 2,113 30.18 4,368 30.18 3,559 30.18 302 27.11 18,810 18,810
B Shell 5.25 6,217 3.85 3,750 4.07 1,353 4.54 11,321 17.33 42,597 234.53 23,218 234.53 16,417 234.53 33,940 234.53 27,655 234.53 2,345 210.64 146,173 157,494
C10 Interior Construction 0.50 592 0.50 488 0.50 166 0.50 1,246 36.73 6,672 45.58 4,512 41.54 2,908 32.00 4,631 24.50 2,889 33.00 330 31.62 21,941 23,187
C20 Stairways 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 6.00 1,090 6.00 594 6.00 420 6.00 868 6.00 708 6.00 60 5.39 3,740 3,740
C30 Interior Finishes 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 18.00 3,269 22.90 2,267 77.00 5,390 80.50 11,650 14.73 1,737 2.50 25 35.07 24,338 24,338
C Interiors 0.50 592 0.50 488 0.50 166 0.50 1,246 234.53 11,031 74.48 7,373 124.54 8,718 118.50 17,149 45.23 5,333 41.50 415 72.08 50,018 51,264
D10 Conveying Systems 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 16.97 3,082 16.97 1,680 16.97 1,188 16.97 2,456 16.97 2,001 16.97 170 15.24 10,577 10,577
D20 Plumbing Systems 0.25 296 0.25 244 0.26 85 0.25 625 19.37 3,519 11.10 1,099 0.00 0 15.06 2,179 16.95 1,998 13.00 130 12.86 8,925 9,550
D30 Heating, Ventilation & Air Conditioning 1.96 2,322 1.75 1,706 1.75 582 1.85 4,610 47.80 8,681 44.55 4,411 44.61 3,123 35.13 5,083 41.12 4,849 868.70 8,687 50.19 34,833 39,443
D40 Fire Protection 0.21 250 0.26 250 0.26 88 0.24 588 6.00 1,090 6.00 594 6.00 420 5.00 724 5.74 677 26.30 263 5.43 3,767 4,355
D50 Electrical Lighting, Power & Communications 1.06 1,250 1.28 1,250 1.31 435 1.18 2,935 68.91 12,516 62.72 6,210 60.65 4,246 36.10 5,224 42.32 4,990 206.25 2,063 50.79 35,249 38,184
D Services 3.48 4,118 3.54 3,450 3.58 1,189 3.51 8,757 60.73 28,888 141.35 13,994 128.23 8,976 108.25 15,666 123.10 14,516 1,131.22 11,312 134.52 93,351 102,109
E10 Equipment 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 5.50 999 0.00 0 4.50 315 0.00 0 7.63 900 0.00 0 3.19 2,214 2,214
E20 Furnishings 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.50 105 2.19 317 1.00 118 0.00 0 0.78 540 540
E Equipment & Furnishings 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 159.05 999 0.00 0 6.00 420 2.19 317 8.63 1,018 0.00 0 3.97 2,754 2,754
F10 Special Construction 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
F20 Selective Demolition 0.41 480 1.33 1,294 0.00 0 0.71 1,774 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 1,774
F Special Construction & Demolition 0.41 480 1.33 1,294 0.00 0 0.71 1,774 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 1,774
G10 Site Preparation 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 2.25 203 2.56 776 0.00 0 978
G20 Site Improvements 0.00 0 0.00 0 48.00 1,940 37.00 3,330 39.80 12,060 18.81 3,420 20,750
G30 Site Mechanical Utilities 0.00 0 0.00 0 2.00 81 1.00 90 12.21 3,701 0.50 91 3,962
G40 Site Electrical Utilities 0.00 0 0.00 0 9.00 364 5.00 450 7.01 2,125 0.99 180 3,119
G90 Other Site Construction 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
G Building Sitework 0.00 0 0.00 0 59 2,385 45.25 4,073 62 18,661 20.30 3,691 28,809
ELEMENTAL COST BEFORE CONTINGENCIES 9.63 11,408 9.21 8,981 8.15 2,709 9.27 23,098 477.15 86,662 467.68 46,301 510.62 35,744 480.80 69,580 428.82 50,566 1,424.58 14,246 436.76 303,098 59.00 2,385 45.25 4,073 61.59 18,661 20.30 3,691 355,004
Z10 Design Contingency 0.96 1,141 0.92 898 0.82 271 0.93 2,310 47.71 8,666 46.77 4,630 19.90 3,574 48.08 6,958 42.88 5,057 142.46 1,425 43.68 30,310 5.90 238 4.53 407 6.16 1,866 2.03 369 35,500
Z11 General Requirements 0.32 376 0.30 296 0.27 89 0.31 762 15.75 2,860 15.43 1,528 0.00 1,180 15.87 2,296 14.15 1,669 47.01 470 14.41 10,002 1.95 79 1.49 134 2.03 616 0.67 122 11,715
Z12 Phasing Requirements 0.55 646 0.52 509 0.46 153 0.53 1,308 27.03 4,909 26.49 2,623 28.93 2,025 27.24 3,942 24.29 2,865 80.70 807 24.74 17,170 3.34 135 2.56 231 3.49 1,057 1.15 209 20,111
ELEMENTAL COST INCLUDING CONTINGENCIES 11.46 13,571 10.96 10,685 9.70 3,222 11.03 27,478 567.64 103,097 556.38 55,082 607.46 42,523 571.99 82,776 510.15 60,156 1,694.75 16,948 519.60 360,580 70.19 2,837 53.83 4,845 73.27 22,200 24.15 4,391 422,331
Z21 General Conditions 0.69 814 0.66 641 0.58 193 0.66 1,649 34.06 6,186 33.38 3,305 36.45 2,551 34.32 4,967 30.61 3,609 101.69 1,017 31.18 21,635 4.21 170 3.23 291 4.40 1,332 1.45 263 25,340
Z22 Bonds & Insurance 0.36 432 0.35 340 0.31 102 0.35 874 18.05 3,278 17.69 1,752 19.32 1,352 18.19 2,632 16.22 1,913 53.89 539 16.52 11,466 2.23 90 1.71 154 2.33 706 0.77 140 13,430
Z23 Contractor's Overhead, Profit & Fee 0.38 445 0.36 350 0.32 106 0.36 900 18.59 3,377 18.22 1,804 19.90 1,393 18.73 2,711 16.71 1,970 55.51 555 17.02 11,810 2.30 93 1.76 159 2.40 727 0.79 144 13,833
Z24 Construction Contingency 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
CONSTRUCTION COST BEFORE ESCALATION 12.89 15,261 12.32 12,016 10.90 3,624 12.40 30,901 638.34 115,938 625.68 61,942 683.13 47,819 643.23 93,086 573.69 67,648 1,905.84 19,058 584.32 405,492 78.93 3,190 60.54 5,448 82.40 24,965 27.16 4,938 474,934
Z30 Escalation From Overall Summary 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 40,436
RECOMMENDED BUDGET - June, 2016 12.89 15,261 12.32 12,016 10.90 3,624 12.40 30,901 638.34 115,938 625.68 61,942 683.13 47,819 643.23 93,086 573.69 67,648 1,905.80 19,058 584.31 405,491 78.93 3,190 60.53 5,448 82.40 24,965 27.16 4,938 515,370
14
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
CM/GC OPTION
Major Differences between our Cost Opinion and the Populous Estimate
Below we have listed the major differences that we believe exist between our estimate of construction cost and the
estimate provided by Populous for the CM/GC option. Given the level of cost detail being developed at this stage of
the project it is not possible to provide a completely accurate picture of cost difference and the scope of this study
did not include for a reconciliation between our estimated costs and those developed by Populous. The list and the
associated numbers below should be treated as a guide to the difference in scope and price differential based upon our
understanding of scope coverage in the two estimates. All the costs represent higher amounts in the MGAC estimate:
CM/GC Major Differences between our Cost Opinion and the Populous Estimate
Area Differences - the gross areas shown in the Populous Concept Validation, Volume 2 drawings (page 35) is not
consistent with the areas used in the Populous Cost Estimate:
New construction difference + 10,109 square feet $4,114,000
Renovation difference $13,685,000
Program requirements not appearing to be covered in the Populous estimate:
Front of House exterior plaza $2,752,000
Seismic upgrade of existing South Hall $2,960,000
Seismic bracing of existing MEP $2,618,000
Signage upgrades to South Hall to match new expansion $592,000
Integration of BMS to new system $250,000
Code-driven fire alarm upgrades to West Hall $250,000
Pico Boulevard passage ventilation $250,000
Lighting - re-lamping, seismic and minor upgrades to West Hall $1,000,000
Seismic upgrade of existing West Hall $3,413,000
Seismic bracing of existing MEP equipment at West Hall $1,950,000
Signage upgrades to West Hall to match new expansion $488,000
Code-driven fire alarm upgrades to South Hall $250,000
Lighting - re-lamping, seismic and minor upgrades to South Hall $1,000,000
Atrium architectural and seismic upgrades $2,910,000
Seismic upgrade of existing Concourse Hall $831,000
Seismic bracing of existing MEP equipment at Concourse Hall $754,000
Signage upgrades to Concourse to match new expansion $166,000
Lighting - re-lamping, seismic and minor upgrades to Concourse $350,000
Code-driven fire alarm upgrades to Concourse $85,000
Exterior facade improvements to match new expansion $6,688,000
Perimeter street improvement $3,691,000
Gilbert Lindsey Plaza improvement $4,073,000
Freeway screen walls $2,500,000
15
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
CM/GC OPTION
16
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
DESIGN-BUILD-FINANCE-OPERATE-MAINTAIN
BASIS OF ESTIMATE/REFERENCES
• Site visit to review existing conditions
• Discussions with the HOK/Arup representatives, City representatives and Operations staff at the Convention Center
• Concept floor plans for Scheme B2 prepared by HOK/Arup dated June 1, 2016
• Building area tabulation prepared by Arup
• Preliminary seismic review of LACC dated May 27, 2016
• Draft mechanical design narrative dated May 27, 2016
ASSUMPTIONS
General
• The project will be procured under a single construction contract
• The project will be competitively bid for all sub-contract works
• The phasing and sequencing of the work will be determined by the General Contractor in order to meet the
proposed / required schedule - premium for phasing requirements is included in the cost plan based on a
percentage factor of trade costs
• The facilities are required to be in full operation during construction
• Contractor staging and parking will be made available on or adjacent to the site
• Existing West Hall and Concourse Hall
• Demolition of existing West Hall and Concourse Hall is assumed to carried out in Phase 1B
• Modifications to the existing South Hall façade (connecting to the Concourse Hall) after demolition of Concourse
Hall is included in the project scope
Existing South Hall
• Demolition of the existing curved back wall, loading dock ramps and canopies is included
• Demolition of the existing link bridge connecting South and West Halls is included
• Exterior façade improvements to the existing building are required to provide an aesthetic connection the new
expansion
• Minor roof upgrades are require to match the new expansion
• Allowances are included for seismic upgrade, including to the atrium
• Seismic upgrade allowances in connection with MEP equipment
17
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
DESIGN-BUILD-FINANCE-OPERATE-MAINTAIN
ASSUMPTIONS
18
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
DESIGN-BUILD-FINANCE-OPERATE-MAINTAIN
ASSUMPTIONS
• HVAC includes hi-efficiency central heating and chilling, thermal ice storage, distribution pipework, roof-mounted
air handlers/vehicle exhaust at exhibition halls, 24/7 cooling, terminal reheat, stair pressurization, kitchen exhaust,
pollution control units, air distribution and controls
• Electrical includes normal, emergency, machine, equipment and user convenience power, floor box power and
data, lighting, telephone/data, A/V (conduit only), fire alarm and security. (A/V equipment and cabling allowances
included in our project costs – not construction)
• Fire protection includes automatic wet sprinklers, fire department hose valve connection points at stairwells and
fire water booster systems
Site Work
• Site improvements to the existing Gilbert Lindsey Plaza
• Surfacing, landscaping and furnishings to proposed deck terraces – waterproofing to the deck is included with the
building construction budget
• An allowance is included to upgrade the entire finished site (except areas allocated for future development)
• An allowance to cover sidewalk and street improvement that will be impacted by demolition / renovation is
included in the cost plan
• Modifications to Pico Boulevard between Figueroa Street and LA Live Way
• Surface parking is included to an area of 180,000 square feet - assumed to be temporarily located in the future
development
• Reconfiguration of the loading dock ramp and Convention Center Drive
• Screen walls between the new construction and the freeway
• Upgrades to exterior signage
• Site utilities include domestic and fire water, water realignment, sewer, storm drainage, site lighting, natural
gas, CHW/HHW pipework distribution across Pico Blvd., 35/4.16 kV normal power equipment and cabling,
telecommunications and signals connections to existing infrastructure.
Excluded from the scope of the project and/or our budget
• Operational equipment
• New FF+E for relocated program areas
• Moving and relocation expenses during construction and on completion
• Existing South Hall mechanical and electrical system replacement/upgrades (except seismic upgrades to existing
systems, Pico Passage ventilation, fire alarm code upgrades and minor lighting replacement and re-lamping)
• Water recycling systems
• Underground diesel/fuel oil storage systems
• Specialty gaseous fire suppression systems
• Emergency fire water storage systems
• Photovoltaic renewable energy systems (provision for future installation only)
• Show lighting and controls
• Telephone/data “active” equipment – including hubs, routers, servers, switches, LAN, UPS and the like
19
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
DESIGN-BUILD-FINANCE-OPERATE-MAINTAIN
20
City of Los Angeles
Los Angeles Convention Center Expansion Project
June 17, 2016
MGAC Arup
TOTAL TOTAL
SF $/SF $x 1,000 SF $/SF $x 1,000
Note:
1. For comparison purposes - ARUP cost estimate is reformatted to match the ICE (FF&E and Permit & Testing Fees are shown as part of project soft costs)
2. .FF&E value is shown as part of Soft Costs to line up with ICE
21
City of Los Angeles
Los Angeles Convention Center Expansion Project
June 17, 2016
22
City of Los Angeles
Los Angeles Convention Center Expansion Project
June 17, 2016
Sub-Total (Existing
Existing West Hall & Buildings - Renovation/ BOH / Loading Dock / Sub-Total Street Improvement (B-
Existing South Hall Councourse Hall Demolition ) Parking Replacement Exhibit Halls Meeting Rooms Ballroom Pre-function / Circulation F&B / Kitchen Central Utility Plant (New Construction) Outdoor Event Space Gilbert Lindsay Plaza Sitework permit)
$/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL $/SF TOTAL TOTAL
$ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000 $ x 1,000
1,215,751 SF 1,307,347 SF 2,523,098 SF 200,465 SF 390,000 SF 212,000 SF 70,000 SF 389,900 SF 525,600 SF 12,500 SF 1,800,465 SF 20,000 SF 60,250 SF 193,000 SF 181,830 SF
A10 Foundations 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 15.01 3,009 15.01 5,854 15.01 3,182 15.01 1,051 15.01 5,852 15.01 7,889 15.01 188 15.01 27,025 27,025
A20 Basement Construction 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
A Substructure 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 15.01 3,009 15.01 5,854 15.01 3,182 15.01 1,051 15.01 5,852 15.01 7,889 15.01 188 15.01 27,025 27,025
B10 Superstructure 3.17 3,852 0.00 0 1.53 3,852 40.95 8,209 80.95 31,571 80.95 17,161 80.95 5,667 80.95 31,562 80.95 42,547 80.95 1,012 76.50 137,729 141,581
B20 Exterior Enclosure 2.39 2,910 0.00 0 1.15 2,910 23.14 4,639 33.14 12,925 33.14 7,026 33.14 2,320 33.14 12,921 33.14 17,418 33.14 414 32.03 57,663 60,572
B30 Roofing 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 6.18 1,239 11.18 4,360 11.18 2,370 11.18 783 11.18 4,359 11.18 5,876 11.18 140 10.62 19,127 19,127
B Shell 5.56 6,762 0.00 0 2.68 6,762 70.27 14,087 15.01 48,855 125.27 26,557 125.27 8,769 125.27 48,843 125.27 65,842 125.27 1,566 119.15 214,519 221,280
C10 Interior Construction 0.50 608 0.00 0 0.24 608 1.00 200 35.35 13,785 45.08 9,556 41.54 2,908 32.00 12,477 24.50 12,877 32.90 411 29.00 52,214 52,822
C20 Stairways 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 6.00 1,203 6.00 2,340 6.00 1,272 6.00 420 6.00 2,339 6.00 3,154 6.00 75 6.00 10,803 10,803
C30 Interior Finishes 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 2.00 401 18.00 7,020 22.90 4,855 77.00 5,390 80.50 31,387 15.71 8,260 2.50 31 31.85 57,344 57,344
C Interiors 0.50 608 0.00 0 0.24 608 9.00 1,804 125.27 23,145 73.98 15,683 124.54 8,718 118.50 46,203 46.21 24,290 41.40 518 66.85 120,361 120,968
D10 Conveying Systems 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 8.91 1,786 8.91 3,475 8.91 1,889 8.91 624 8.91 3,474 8.91 4,683 8.91 111 8.91 16,042 16,042
D20 Plumbing Systems 0.21 250 0.00 0 0.10 250 2.00 401 18.12 7,068 10.97 2,326 0.00 0 15.04 5,863 16.97 8,919 12.65 158 13.74 24,735 24,985
D30 Heating, Ventilation & Air Conditioning 1.96 2,378 0.00 0 0.94 2,378 5.50 1,103 47.67 18,593 44.45 9,424 44.61 3,123 35.36 13,786 36.03 18,937 1,694.30 21,179 47.84 86,143 88,520
D40 Fire Protection 0.21 250 0.00 0 0.10 250 3.50 702 6.00 2,340 6.00 1,272 6.00 420 5.00 1,950 5.17 2,716 22.79 285 5.38 9,684 9,934
D50 Electrical Lighting, Power & Communications 1.03 1,250 0.00 0 0.50 1,250 4.50 902 64.87 25,299 64.78 13,734 62.84 4,399 37.31 14,546 43.85 23,048 255.80 3,198 47.28 85,126 86,376
D Services 3.40 4,128 0.00 0 1.64 4,128 24.41 4,893 59.35 56,774 135.12 28,645 122.36 8,565 101.61 39,619 110.93 58,303 1,994.45 24,931 123.15 221,729 225,857
E10 Equipment 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 10 5.50 2,145 0.00 0 4.50 315 0.00 0 1.81 950 0.00 0 1.90 3,420 3,420
E20 Furnishings 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.50 105 1.88 735 1.00 526 0.00 0 0.76 1,365 1,365
E Equipment & Furnishings 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 10 145.57 2,145 0.00 0 6.00 420 1.88 735 2.81 1,476 0.00 0 2.66 4,785 4,785
F10 Special Construction 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
F20 Selective Demolition 0.93 1,136 10.09 13,195 5.68 14,331 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 14,331
F Special Construction & Demolition 0.93 1,136 10.09 13,195 5.68 14,331 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 14,331
G10 Site Preparation 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 2.25 136 4.30 830 0.00 0 965
G20 Site Improvements 0.00 0 0.00 0 48.00 960 37.00 2,229 52.47 10,128 24.25 4,410 17,727
G30 Site Mechanical Utilities 0.00 0 0.00 0 2.00 40 1.00 60 19.17 3,701 0.50 91 3,892
G40 Site Electrical Utilities 0.00 0 0.00 0 9.00 180 5.00 301 11.01 2,125 0.99 180 2,786
G90 Other Site Construction 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
G Building Sitework 0.00 0 0.00 0 59 1,180 45.25 2,726 87 16,783 25.74 4,681 25,370
ELEMENTAL COST BEFORE CONTINGENCIES 10.39 12,633 10.09 13,195 10.24 25,828 118.74 23,803 350.70 136,773 349.37 74,067 393.17 27,522 362.28 141,252 300.23 157,800 2,176.13 27,202 326.82 588,419 59.00 1,180 45.25 2,726 86.96 16,783 25.74 4,681 639,617
Z10 Design Contingency 1.04 1,263 1.01 1,320 1.02 2,583 11.87 2,380 35.07 13,677 34.94 7,407 19.84 2,752 36.23 14,125 30.02 15,780 217.61 2,720 32.68 58,842 5.90 118 4.53 273 8.70 1,678 2.57 468 63,962
Z11 General Requirements 0.34 417 0.33 435 0.34 852 3.92 785 11.57 4,514 11.53 2,444 0.00 908 11.96 4,661 9.91 5,207 71.81 898 10.78 19,418 1.95 39 1.49 90 2.87 554 0.85 154 21,107
Z12 Phasing Requirements 0.24 286 0.23 299 0.23 585 2.69 539 7.95 3,099 7.92 1,678 8.91 624 8.21 3,201 6.80 3,576 49.31 616 7.41 13,334 1.34 27 1.03 62 1.97 380 0.58 106 14,494
ELEMENTAL COST INCLUDING CONTINGENCIES 12.01 14,599 11.66 15,249 11.83 29,848 137.22 27,508 405.29 158,063 403.76 85,596 454.37 31,806 418.67 163,239 346.96 182,364 2,514.87 31,436 377.69 680,012 68.18 1,364 52.29 3,151 100.49 19,395 29.75 5,410 739,179
Z21 General Conditions 0.72 876 0.70 915 0.71 1,791 8.23 1,650 24.32 9,484 24.23 5,136 27.26 1,908 25.12 9,794 20.82 10,942 150.89 1,886 22.66 40,801 4.09 82 3.14 189 6.03 1,164 1.79 325 44,351
Z22 Bonds & Insurance 0.38 464 0.37 485 0.38 949 4.36 875 12.89 5,026 12.84 2,722 14.45 1,011 13.31 5,191 11.03 5,799 79.97 1,000 12.01 21,624 2.17 43 1.66 100 3.20 617 0.95 172 23,506
Z23 Contractor's Overhead, Profit & Fee 0.52 638 0.51 666 0.52 1,304 5.99 1,201 17.70 6,903 17.63 3,738 19.84 1,389 18.28 7,129 15.15 7,964 109.83 1,373 16.49 29,697 2.98 60 2.28 138 4.39 847 1.30 236 32,281
Z24 Construction Contingency 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0
CONSTRUCTION COST BEFORE ESCALATION 13.63 16,577 13.24 17,315 13.43 33,892 155.81 31,235 460.20 179,477 458.45 97,192 515.93 36,115 475.39 185,353 393.97 207,069 2,855.56 35,695 428.85 772,135 77.42 1,548 59.38 3,578 114.11 22,023 33.78 6,142 839,318
Z30 Escalation From Overall Summary 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 50,859
RECOMMENDED BUDGET - June, 2016 13.64 16,577 13.24 17,315 13.43 33,892 155.81 31,235 460.20 179,477 458.45 97,192 515.93 36,115 475.39 185,353 393.97 207,069 2,855.60 35,695 428.85 772,136 77.42 1,548 59.39 3,578 114.11 22,023 33.78 6,142 890,177
23
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
DESIGN-BUILD-FINANCE-OPERATE-MAINTAIN
Major Differences between our Cost Opinion and the Arup Estimate
Below we have listed the major differences that we believe exist between our estimate of construction cost and the
estimate provided by Arup for the DBFOM option. Given the level of cost detail being developed at this stage of
the project it is not possible to provide a completely accurate picture of cost difference and the scope of this study
did not include for a reconciliation between our estimated costs and those developed by Arup. The list and the
associated numbers below should be treated as a guide to the difference in scope and price differential based upon our
understanding of scope coverage in the two estimates. All the costs represent higher amounts in the MGAC estimate
other than the loading dock cost:
24
SECTION THREE
LIFE CYCLE COST
SEC TI ON
25
LIFE CYCLE COST
INTRODUCTION
The purpose and intent of this report is to assess the lifecycle requirements of the approach and design for the traditional
(CM/GC) procurement model represented by the Populous proposal and the DBFOM model represented by the Arup
proposal. In an effort to provide an “apples to apples” comparison, a common 40 year investment horizon has been
determined for the assessment. However, the approach and design schemes are fundamentally different and are
reflected in significant differences in initial capital investment and lifecycle/refurbishment costs over the period.
For purposes of the review, lifecycle costs include the future anticipated capital investment requirements to refurbish,
refresh and/or replace building elements and components as they reach the end of their design or useful life. This
includes such items as carpeting, interior finishes, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems (HVAC), roof
coverings, life safety & security systems, windows, exterior building elements, electrical components, etc. Lifecycle costs
do not include, nor are they intended to replace, normal ongoing and day-to-day operations, maintenance, repair and
energy expenditures.
The Populous design is based on achieving the functional program requirements within an overall affordability/
funding cap of $350 million (our own capital cost assessment is a higher cost than this). In addition to the build out of
new program space, this approach entails extensive reuse of the existing buildings and systems which will have a major
impact on lifecycle costs. In addition, the proposed reuse of the West Hall will effectively result in the building being
added to the historic register. This approach may result in increased operations, maintenance and energy expenditures
over the study period; however, this has not been quantified as part of this report.
The Arup design contemplates the demolition of the West Hall and replacement of this facility along with new program
space as part of their overall proposal which also includes renovations to the South Hall and development of a new
central utility plant. This will result in a higher initial capital investment but will have lower lifecycle costs due to a greater
percentage of new construction and associated building systems.
Both approaches include renovation of the South Hall which is entering the mid-point of its useful life. The degree
to which elements in this building will be reused, refurbished and/or replaced is not completely clear in the design/
technical briefs and both parties indicate that further determination and assessment will be required during the design
development stage. This represents a significant cost risk and under-investment at the project construction stage due to
value engineering and/or cost avoidance, will result in increased future lifecycle, maintenance and energy costs.
26
LIFE CYCLE COST
APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY
The initial analysis entailed the review of technical and financial documentation provided by the City along with various
reports and estimates developed as part of the proposal development of the two approaches. The lifecycle costs for
the new construction and renovations have been calculated following two methodologies. The first utilizes the adjusted
base construction estimates in the Uniformat II (level 2) break-down extrapolated over 40 years using average design/
service life benchmarks for the various building elements along with assumed replacement/refurbishment strategies
based on good industry practice that would be employed by a prudent owner or P3 contractor to maximize useful life.
The second calculates the expected lifecycle costs using formulae that have been derived from industry experience
in the development of public and private sector long-term capital/lifecycle plans along with the outcome of multiple
competitive P3 bids. The second approach is used as a reference point to validate the system level calculations. This
captures the future costs against the initial capital construction expenditures.
Both the traditional and P3 approaches for this project include reuse of existing space and systems and as such, there has
to be a reconciliation of the lifecycle costs associated with each scheme. To support this, a model has been developed
that calculates a current replacement value (CRV) of the elemental components of the facility based on the proposed
total space (new and existing) multiplied by a commonly-applied unit cost of construction/replacement. Different factors
have been developed for the South and West Halls to recognize their age difference and the impending heritage status of
the West Hall. Using the methodology noted above, a formula-driven indicative lifecycle estimate has been determined
for 40 years and added to the overall total for each approach. Typically, cost projections fall into an expected high to low
range. For purposes of this analysis, the mid-point has been utilized in all calculations.
Table 1: Factors
DBFOM
CM/GC
27
LIFE CYCLE COST
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• The proposed renovation and expansion work is compliant with all codes and regulatory requirements (including the
reuse of existing mechanical systems for heating, cooling, distribution, fire and life safety, etc.);
• Both design proposals meet the functional program requirements for the LA Convention Center;
• Levels of day-to-day and preventive maintenance are assumed to be the same under both scenarios with the services
provided by a third party under the traditional model (funding provided by the City), FM and lifecycle work provided
by the P3 partner under a performance-based P3 agreement;
• Replacement and/or refurbishment strategies are based on good industry practice designed to maximize the useful
life of critical systems and buildings.
• System and building elements are based on a reasonable standard of performance, durability and service life;
• Reuse of the West Hall, as an integral key component of the Populous design, will result in the building being placed
on the historic register and it is assumed to remain as a functional part of the Convention Centre for the full analysis
period of 40 years; and
• Operations, maintenance and energy costs along with future redevelopment opportunities on the site have not been
considered as part of this analysis.
Existing LACC
West Hall leasable space SF 276,588
South Hall leasable space SF 525,559
Concourse leasable space SF 66,229
Total Leasable Area SF 868,376
Non-leasable space SF 1,199,236
Total Gross Enclosed Area (excl. SF 2,067,612
parking)
Net-to-gross ratio % 42%
There is no current comprehensive condition assessment of the existing buildings and the review has relied on
project briefs and other background information provided by the Bureau of Engineering, Populous, Gensler, ARUP,
AEG and Finance & Administration. Technical information and the condition assessments contained within the
supplied documentation is inconsistent and in some cases conflicting. For example, in a request for current year
funding, AEG Facilities indicates that the 8 cooling towers in the South and West Hall are well past their useful life.
The MEPT section of Volume Three of the Populous Concept Validation report indicates that the West Hall chillers and
associated cooling towers are to remain as part of their design and the ARUP existing conditions report indicates NIL
remaining life (in accordance with ASHRAE standards).
In the absence of a detailed condition assessment, particularly with respect to the West Hall, it is assumed that
the facility and its elements are generally at the end of its normal service life and will require a significant initial
refurbishment and modernization in order to be consistent with the new and renovated portions of the Convention
Center and provide the required functional program space. Following the upgrades, the West Hall would then be
subject to normal lifecycle re-investment levels for a building of its age and historical status. An amount of $105,873,
480 has been added to the lifecycle requirements of the Traditional Model to address upgrades to mechanical,
electrical and architectural elements of the building. This has been calculated on the basis of $125 per square foot
which represents approximately 25% of the unit cost for new construction. Work of this nature may trigger additional
requirements related to code standards and this provision should be considered a conservative minimum threshold
of investment.
29
LIFE CYCLE COST
OBSERVATIONS AND COMMENTS
30
LIFE CYCLE COST
OBSERVATIONS AND COMMENTS
Notes:
Unescalated - based on current estimated values
Calculated high-low lifecycle range based on competitive bids $247,814,400 to $297,377,280 based on 1,600,000 SF new
build
New Build: Recommended budget for business case analysis: $268,509,000
Existing Gross Enclosed Area (No Refurbish)
31
LIFE CYCLE COST
OBSERVATIONS AND COMMENTS
A20: Basement 50 $0 0
construction
B: SHELL B10: Superstructure 50 $94,639 Contingency allowance $5,915
B20: Exterior enclosures 20 to 50 $44,045 Major refurbishment & upgrades $27,528
B30: Roofing 20 to 25 $18,810 Full and partial replacement $35,269
C: INTERIORS C10: Interior 15 to 35 $23,187 Partial phased replacement of stair coverings plus $21,738
construction contingency for structure
C20 Stairs 15 to 40 $3,740 Cyclical replacement of stair coverings plus $701
contingency for structure
C30: Interior finishes 5 to 40 $24,338 Cyclical replacement of carpeted floor finishes in high #22,817
traffic areas, repainting, ceiling and wall coverings
D: SERVICES D10: Conveying 10 to 25 $10,577 Lifts, escalators and elevators - cyclical major $11,899
refurbishment, upgrades & replacement
D20: Plumbing 10 to 40 $9,550 Cyclical replacement of fixtures plus replacement/ $3,581
refurbishment of other system components
D30: HVAC 10 to 30 $39,443 Cyclical upgrades to major components to extend life $24,652
plus partial replacement of other system elements
D40: Fire protection 15 to 25 $4,355 System upgrades and refurbishment $817
D50: Electrical 10 to 40 $38,184 Upgrade and replacement of various components $23,865
E: EQUIPMENT & E10: Equipment N/A $0 Assume LC by owner under both scenarios $0
(excluded)
E20: Furnishings N/A $0 Assume LC by owner under both scenarios $0
(excluded)
F: SPECIAL F10: Special N/A $0 $0
construction
F20: Demolition - N/A $0 Not subject to LC $0
G: BUILDING G10: Site preparation $0 $0
G20: Site improvements 8 to 30 $20,750 $7,781
G30: Site mechanical 40 to 50 $3,962 $495
utilities
G40: Site electrical 15 to 40 $3,119 $390
utilities
G90: Other site N/A $0 $0
construction
TOTAL $349,500 $188,123
32
LIFE CYCLE COST
OBSERVATIONS AND COMMENTS
Notes:
Unescalated - based on current estimated values
Calculated high-low lifecycle range based on competitive bids $174,750,000 to $202,710,000 based on 693,000 SF new
build
New Build: Recommended budget for business case analysis: $188,125,000
Existing Gross Enclosed Area (No Refurbish)
33
LIFE CYCLE COST
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Based on the design proposals and background information provided by the key stakeholders, 40 year lifecycle profiles
have been developed for each scheme that include projected future costs for both the new and existing areas that
will comprise the expanded and renovated Los Angeles Convention Center at the end of the construction period.
The projections are subject to change resulting from modifications to the project scope during the detailed design
development stage. It is anticipated that the actual conditions of the existing building elements and the viability of their
reuse will have an impact on both the initial capital construction and lifecycle costs.
The summarized recommended lifecycle estimates are:
• Traditional Model: $779,732,980
• P3/DBFOM Model: $490,009,000
34
SECTION FOUR
SCHEDULE
SEC TI ON
35
DBFOM Schedule
The proposed Convention Center expansion and renovation approaches offer very different project delivery methods.
Both result in upgraded and expanded convention facilities. The principal difference, other than the procurement,
contract, cost, and risk characteristics, is the scope of demolition and construction proposed. The CM/GC approach
modifies and expands the existing West and South Halls into a more unified complex of exhibition, meeting, and support
spaces. THE DBFOM approach expands South Hall significantly, creating a larger overall building with the necessary
exhibition, meeting, and support spaces, and then ultimately demolishes West Hall.
The question is whether the schedules presented by both approaches reasonable, realistic and all encompassing?
DBFOM Schedule
The fundamental elements of the DBFOM schedule are:
CM/GC Schedule
The fundamental elements of the schedule provided by Populous are:
Populous projects the overall duration of the CM/GC approach to be 52 months. This would present a 5 month time
advantage over the DBFOM approach.
It should be noted that the schedule duration is directly affected by Populous’ indication that the design and
construction phases would overlap by 5 months. Construction is projected to commence 5 months before the design is
complete and in this approach bids would be sought with incomplete documents. While this can be advantageous from
a time perspective, it typically adds to the risk of prices increasing after initial contract award. This can be managed, of
course, with proper controls and risk assignment planning during the bid process, but it could place the City at the risk of
change orders or incomplete scope once construction commences. Further, any mechanism in the bid process to require
the proposers to quantify the risk or accept the risk of the incomplete documents will result in higher contingencies in
the bids and thus neutralize the advantage of taking competitive bids on completed documents.
If that is a risk the City is unwilling to take, then the Populous schedule should be extended 5 months to ensure complete
documents for bidding. If that is the case, there would be no time advantage to the Populous approach and no
associated show revenue benefit.
In addition to the above, the Populous submission raises the same concerns as the Arup issues described previously.
Since this is a less integrated development approach than the DBFOM method, the City must give serious consideration
to how the CM/GC process will be managed and how the City’s operational issues will be addressed during the design
and construction stage.
37