Unit 3 Laws of Probability: Structure
Unit 3 Laws of Probability: Structure
Unit 3 Laws of Probability: Structure
3.1 INTRODUCTION
In the preceding two units of this block, you have studied various approaches
to probability, their direct applications and various types of events in terms of
set theory. However, in many situations, we may need to find probability of
occurrence of more complex events. Now, we are adequately equipped to
develop the laws of probability i.e. the law of addition and the law of
multiplication which will help to deal with the probability of occurrence of
complex events.
Objectives
After completing this unit, you should be able to discuss:
addition law of probability;
conditional probability;
multiplication law of probability;
independent events;
probability of happening at least one of the independent events; and
problems on addition and multiplicative laws of probability.
43
Basic Concepts in
Probability
A B = A A B
S
A B
AB
P A B C
E1) A card is drawn from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that
it is either a king or a red card.
E2) Two dice are thrown together. Find the probability that the sum of the
numbers turned up is either 6 or 8.
B = {1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s, Js, Qs, Ks}.
If after a card is drawn from the pack of cards, we are given the information
that card of spade has been drawn i.e., B has happened, then the probability of
3
event A will no more be , because here in this case, we have the
26
information that the card drawn is of spade (i.e. from amongst 13 cards) and
hence there are 13 exhaustive cases and not 52. From amongst these 13 cards
of spade, there are 3 black colour face cards and hence probability of having
black colour face card given that it is a card of spade i.e. P(A|B) = 3/13, which
is the conditional probability of A given that B has already happened.
Note: Here, the symbol ‘|’ used in P(A|B) should be read as ‘given’ and not
‘upon’. P(A|B) is the conditional probability of happening A given that B has
already happened i.e. here A happens depending on the condition of B.
So, the conditional probability P(A|B) is also the probability of happening A
but here the information is given that the event B has already happened.
P(A|B) refers to the sample space B and not S.
Remark 1: P(A|B) is meaningful only when P(B) i.e. when the event B is
not an impossible event.
Multiplication Law of Probability
Statement: For two events A and B,
P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A), P(A) > 0 … (1)
= P(B) P(A|B), P(B) > 0, … (2)
where P(B|A) is the conditional probability of B given that A has already
happened and P(A|B) is the conditional probability of A given that B has
already happened.
Proof: Let n be the number of exhaustive cases corresponding to the sample
space S and m1, m2, m3 be the number of favourable cases for events A, B and
A B respectively.
m1 m m
P(A) = , P B 2 , P A B 3
n n n
Now, as B|A represents the event of happening B given that A has already
happened and hence it refers to the sample space A ( we have with us the
information that A has already happened) and thus the number of exhaustive
cases for B|A is m1 (i.e. the number of cases favourable to “A relative to
sample space S”). The number of cases favourable to B|A is the number of
those elements of B which are in A i.e. the number of favourable cases to B|A
is the number of favourable cases to “A B relative to S”. So, the number of
favourable cases to B|A is m3
m3
P B | A
m1
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Probability P A B
, P A 0
P A
Two events A and B are independent if and only if P(B|A) = P(B) i.e. there is
no relevance of giving any information. Here, if A has already happened, even
then it does not alter the probability of B. e.g. Let A be the event of getting
head in the 4 th toss of a coin and B be the event of getting head in the 5th toss
1
of the coin. Then the probability of getting head in the 5th toss is ,
2
irrespective of the case whether we know or don’t know the outcome of
4 th toss, i.e. P(B|A) = P(B).
P(A)P(B)
P(B)P(A)
P(A)P(B)
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Basic Concepts in
Probability
Events A and B are independent
P(A)P(B)
1/ 6 1
3/ 6 3
Example 7: A couple has 2 children. What is the probability that both the
children are boys, if it is known that?
Solution: Let Bi , G i denote that i th birth is of boy and girl respectively, i =1, 2.
P(A B) 1/ 4 1
required probability P(A | B)
P(B) 2/4 2
(ii) Let C be the event of getting older child as boy, then C = {B1B2 , B1G 2 }
P(A C) 1/ 4 1
required probability P(A | C) .
P(C) 2/ 4 2
(iii) Let D be the event of getting at least one of the children as boy, then
D {B1B2 , B1G 2 , G1B2 } and hence
A D ={B1B2 } .
P(A D) 1/ 4 1
required probability P(A | D)
P(D) 3/ 4 3
Example 8: An urn contains 4 red and 7 blue balls. Two balls are drawn one
by one without replacement. Find the probability of getting 2 red balls.
Solution: Let A be the event that first ball drawn is red and B be the event that
the second ball drawn is red.
it is given that one red ball
P(A) 4 /11 and P(B|A)= 3/10
has already been drawn
= P(A) P(B|A)
4 3 6
11 10 55
Example 9: Three cards are drawn one by one without replacement from a
well shuffled pack of 52 playing cards. What is the probability that first card is
jack, second is queen and the third is again a jack.
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Probability Required probability = P(E1 E 2 E 3 )
P E1 P E 2 |E1 P E 3 | E1 E 2
4 4 3 1 2 1 2
= × × = × × = .
52 51 50 13 17 25 5525
Example 10: (i) If A and B are independent events with
P(A B) = 0.8 and P(B) = 0.4 then find P(A).
(ii) If A and B are independent events with
P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.5 then find P(A B) .
(iii) If A and B are independent events and
P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.3, then find P(A|B) and P(B|A).
(iv) If A and B are independent events with P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.2, then
find
Example 11: Three unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously. In which of the
following cases are the events A and B independent?
(i) A be the event of getting exactly one head
B be the event of getting exactly one tail
(ii) A be the event that first coin shows head
B be the event that third coin shows tail
(iii) A be the event that shows exactly two tails
B be the event that third coin shows head
Solution: When three unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously, then
the sample space is given by
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
(i) A = {HTT, THT, TTH}
B = {HHT, HTH, THH}
A B = {} =
3 3 0
P(A) , P(B) , P(A B) 0
8 8 8
3 3 9
Hence, P(A) P(B) = × =
8 8 64
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Probability P(A B) P(A)P(B)
E3) A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of cards. If the card drawn is a
face card, what is the probability that it is a king?
E4) Two cards are drawn one by one without replacement from a well
shuffled pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that both the cards are
red?
E5) A bag contains 10 good and 4 defective items, two items are drawn one
by one without replacement. What is the probability that first drawn item
is defective and the second one is good?
E6) The odds in favour of passing driving test by a person X are 3: 5 and
odds in favour of passing the same test by another person Y are 3 : 2 .
What is the probability that both will pass the test?
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Basic Concepts in
Probability 4 2
1 1 1
5 3
1 1 1 14
1 1 .
5 3 15 15
= P(H W) P(H W)
= P H P W P H P W
3 4 12
= ×
5 5 25
Example 16: A person X speaks the truth in 80% cases and another person Y
speaks the truth in 90% cases. Find the probability that they contradict each
other in stating the same fact.
Solution: Let A, B be the events that person X and person Y speak truth
respectively, then
80 90
P(A) 0.8, P(B) 0.9 .
100 100
Thus, the required probability = P A B A B
By addition law for mutually
P(A B) P(A B)
exclusive events
By multiplication law for
P(A)P(B) P(A)P(B)
independent events
= 0.8 0.1 + 0.2 0.9
= 0.08+ 0.1= 0.26 = 26%.
Here is an exercise for you.
E 8) Two cards are drawn from a pack of cards in succession presuming that
drawn cards are replaced. What is the probability that both drawn cards
are of the same suit?
3.7 SUMMARY
3.8 SOLUTIONS/ANSWERS
E1) Let A be the event of getting a card of king and B be the event of getting
a red card.
the required probability = P(A B)
= P(A) P(B) P(A B) [By addition theorem]
4 26 2
+
52 52 52
4 + 26 2 28 7
= =
52 52 13
E2) Here, the number of exhaustive cases = 6 6 = 36.
Let A be the event that the sum is 6 and B be the event that the sum is 8.
A = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}, and
B = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}.
Here, as A B = ,
A and B are mutually exclusive and hence
the required probability = P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
5 5 10 5
= + = =
36 36 36 18
E 3) Let A be the event that the card drawn is face card and B be the event
that it is a king.
58 A = J s ,Qs , K s , J h , Q h , K h , J d , Q d , K d , J c , Q c , K c
B = K s , K h , K c , K d Laws of Probability
A B = K s ,K h ,K c ,K d
12 4 4
P A = , P B = , and P(A B) = .
52 52 52
P A B 4 / 52 4 1
the required probability = P B | A = = .
P A 12 / 52 12 3
E 4) Let A be the event that first card drawn is red and B be the event that
second card is red.
26 25
P(A) = and P(B|A) = .
52 51
Thus, the desired probability = P(A B)
By multiplication
= P(A) P(B|A)
theorem
26 25 25
= = .
52 51 102
E 5) Let E1 be the event of getting a defective item in first draw and E 2
be the event of getting a good item in the second draw.
the required probability = P(E1 E 2 )
By multiplication
= P(E1 )P(E 2 | E1 )
theorem
4 10 20
= × = .
14 13 91
E 6) Let A be the event that person X passes the test and B be the event
that person Y passes the test.
3 3
P A = =
3+ 5 8
3 3
and P B = =
3+ 2 5
Now, as both the person take the test independently,
the required probability = P(A B)
3 3 9
P(A)P(B)
8 5 40
E 7) Let E1, E2 and E3 be the events that the students A, B and C solves the
problem respectively.
P(E1) = 0.3, P(E2) = 0.5 and P(E3) = 0.6.
Now, as the students try independently to solve the problem,
the probability that the problem will be solved
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Probability = Probability that at least one of the students solves the problem
= P(E1 E2 E3)
= 1 – P E1 P E 2 P E3
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