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VII. The Additive Rule of Probability

The probability of the union of two events can be obtained by adding the individual probabilities and
subtracting the probability of their intersection:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

We can rephrase the definition as follows: The probability that either event A OR event B occurs is
equal to the probability that event A occurs plus the probability that event B occurs minus the
probability that both occur.

Figure 3. 5 Venn Diagram, representing the Additive Rule [3]

Examples:

1. Suppose we have a loaded (unfair) die, and we toss it several times and record the outcomes.
We will define the following events:
A: observe an even number
B: observe a number less than 3

Let us suppose that we have P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3, and P(A∩B) = 0.1. Find P(A∪B).

Solution:

It is probably best to draw a Venn diagram to illustrate this situation. As you can see, the
probability of events A OR B occurring is the union of the individual probabilities of each event.

Figure 3. 6 Venn Diagram for Example 1 [3]

Therefore, adding the probabilities together, we get the following:

P(A∪B )= P(1) + P(2) + P(4) + P(6)

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We have also determined the probabilities below from the given:

P(A) = P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = 0.4

P(B) = P(1) + P(2) = 0.3

P(A∩B) = P(2)=0.1

If we add the probabilities P(A) and P(B), we get:

P(A) + P(B)= P(2) + P(4) + P(6) + P(1) + P(2)

Note that P(2) is included twice. We need to be sure not to double-count this probability. Also
note that 2 is in the intersection of A and B. It is where the two sets overlap. Thus, applying the
additive rule of probability,

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)

P(A∪B) = 0.4 + 0.3 − 0.1 = 0.6

2. Consider the experiment of randomly selecting a card from a deck of 52 playing cards. What is
the probability that the card selected is either a spade or a face card?

Solution:

Let P(E) be the probability that the card selected is either a spade or a face card

Keyword: OR – Additive Rule of Probability

First, define two events as follows:

C: card selected is a spade

D: card selected is a face card

There are 13 spades, thus P(C) = 13/52.

There are 12 face cards, so P(D) is 12/52.

of the 12 face cards, 3 are spades, so P(C∩D) = 3/52.

Using the Additive Rule of Probability formula:

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)

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= 13/52 + 12/52 – 3/52

P(A∪B) = 0.423

3. If you know that 84.2% of the people arrested in the mid 1990’s were males, 18.3% of those
arrested were under the age of 18, and 14.1% were males under the age of 18, what is the
probability that a person selected at random from all those arrested is either male or under the
age of 18?

Solution:

First, define the events:

A: person selected is male

B: person selected in under 18

Also, keep in mind that the following probabilities have been given to us:

P(A) = 0.842 P(B) = 0.183 P(A∩B) = 0.141

Therefore, the probability of the person selected being male or under 18 is P(A∪B) and is
calculated as follows:

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B) = 0.842 + 0.183 − 0.141 = 0.884

This means that 88.4% of the people arrested in the mid 1990’s were either male or under 18.

4. What is the probability of choosing a card from a deck of cards that is a club or a ten?

Solution:

Let P(A) be the probability of selecting a club

Let P(B) be the probability of selecting a ten

Thus, P(A) = 13/52; P(B) = 4/52; P(A∩B) = 1/52

Calculating the probability of selecting a club OR a ten,

P(A∪B) =P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)

P(A∪B) = 13/52 + 4/52 – 1/52

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P(A∪B) = 4/13

5. What is the probability of choosing a number from 1 to 10 that is less than 5 or odd?

Solution:

Let P(A) be the probability of selecting a number less than 5

P(B) be the probability of selecting a number that is odd

The sample set of event A is {1,2,3,4}, thus P(A) = 4/10.

The sample set of event B is {1,3,5,7,9}, thus P(B) = 5/10.

The intersection of A and B is {1,3}, thus, P(A∩B) = 2/10.

Calculating the probability of choosing a number that is less than 5 OR odd,

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) = 4/10 + 5/10 – 2/10

P(A∪B) = 7/10

6. If two coins are tossed, what is the probability of observing at least one head?

Solution:

Since the problems is asking for the probability of at least one head, we are to have a minimum
of one head, that is, one head or two heads since you are to toss two coins. Thus, we can define
the events as follows:

A: observe only one head

B: observe two heads

You will notice that A∩B is empty (A∩B=∅), or, in other words, there is no overlap between the
two sets. Then, we say that A and B are mutually exclusive.

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Additive Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events

If the events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the probability of the union of A and B is
the sum of the probabilities of A and B:

P(A OR B) = P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B).

Calculating the probability of observing at least one head,

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) =0 .5 + 0.25 = 0.75

7. What is the probability of randomly picking a number from 1 to 10 that is even or randomly picking
a number from 1 to 10 that is odd?

Solution:

First, define the events as follows:

A: picking an even number from 1 to 10

B: picking an odd number from 1 to 10

The sample space of A is {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} thus, P(A) = 5/10.

The sample space of B {1,3,5,7,9} thus, P(B) = 5/10.

Now you know that Picking a number that is both even or add is mathematically impossible
thus events A and B are mutually exclusive. So, we use the additive rule for mutually exclusive
events.

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A∪B) =5/10 + 5/10 = 1

8. 2 fair dice are rolled. What is the probability of getting a sum less than 7 or a sum equal to 10?

Solution:

First, define the events as follows:

A: getting a sum less than 7

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B: getting a sum equal to 10

To find the sample space of event A (blue boxes), and the sample space of event B (pink boxes) use the
following table:
Table 3. 1 Summary Table for Example 7

+ 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

The sample space of event A is {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 21, 22, 23, 24, 31, 31, 33, 41, 42, 51}, thus, P(A) =
15/36.

The sample space of event B is {46, 55, 64}, thus, P(B) = 3/36 .

Notice that there are no elements that are common, so the events are mutually exclusive. Therefore,
use the Additive Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A or B) = 15/36 + 3/36 = 18/36

P(A or B) = ½

9. A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that the card
chosen is a diamond or club? Are these events mutually exclusive?

Solution:

First, define the events as follows:

A: getting a diamond
B: getting a club

There are 13 diamond cards in a standard deck with 52 cards, so P(A) = 13/52.

There are 13 club cards in a standard deck with 52 cards, so P(B) = 13/52.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

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P(A or B) = 13/52 + 13/52 = 26/52

P(A or B) = ½

10. 3 coins are tossed simultaneously. What is the probability of getting 1 or 2 heads?

Solution:

First, define the events as follows:

A: getting 1 head
B: getting 2 heads

We can use the Fundamental Counting Principle in calculating the possible outcomes in tossing 3 coins,

2●2●2 = 8

The sample space is {HHH, HTH, HHT, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}.

Based on the sample space, there are 3 possible ways to get 1 head, thus, P(A) = 3/8.

There are also 3 possible ways to get 2 heads, thus P(B) = 3/8.

Since getting 1 head and 2 heads cannot occur at the same time, we say that these two events are
mutually exclusive. So, we use the Additive Rule of Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events to calculate
the probability,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A or B) = 3/8 + 3/8 = 6/8

P(A or B) = 3/4

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