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Chapter10 PDF

The document discusses hypothesis testing using a Pepsi-cola filling machine example. It introduces the null and alternative hypotheses for the example, where the null hypothesis is that the mean volume is 1000cc and the alternative is that it is not. It explains that a sample of 9 bottles will be taken and the sample mean calculated, and how that will be used to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. It also defines the significance level and calculates it to be 5% for this problem. Finally, it gives an example of calculating the probability of a Type II error.

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Eliot Kh
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57 views8 pages

Chapter10 PDF

The document discusses hypothesis testing using a Pepsi-cola filling machine example. It introduces the null and alternative hypotheses for the example, where the null hypothesis is that the mean volume is 1000cc and the alternative is that it is not. It explains that a sample of 9 bottles will be taken and the sample mean calculated, and how that will be used to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. It also defines the significance level and calculates it to be 5% for this problem. Finally, it gives an example of calculating the probability of a Type II error.

Uploaded by

Eliot Kh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 8

12/9/2015

Chapter 10: Hypothesis Tests

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Example:
A Pepsi-cola filling machine is regulated so that the amount of drink
dispensed per bottle is normally distributed with a mean of 1000 cc
and a standard deviation of 75 cc.
The marketing and finance managers claim that the average volume
dispensed is significantly different from 1000cc (thus, they believe
that the machine should be replaced by another one).

To test their claim, a random sample of 9 bottles will be selected


and the average content ̅ computed.

•If ̅ is between 951cc and 1049cc the machine is thought to be


operating satisfactorily.

•Otherwise, if ̅ < 951cc or ̅ > 1049cc the existing machine will


need to be replaced by a new machine

In the Pepsi-cola example,


The null hypothesis,  :  = 1000
and
The alternative hypothesis,  :  ≠ 1000

•If ̅ is found to be between 951cc and 1049cc, we do not reject


the null hypothesis

•Otherwise, if ̅ < 951cc or ̅ > 1049cc , we reject the null


hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

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Significance Level, α
= P(Type I error)
= The probability of rejecting the null CVR= 1049
hypothesis while it's in fact true CVL= 951
= the total area of the rejection region. In
the above figure, the area to the right of
1049 is α/2 and the area to the left of 951 is
α/2

Important Reminder:

 is normally distributed with


µ x = µ , and σ x = σ / n

The z-score of any  value is given by:

x − µx x−µ
z= =
σx σ/ n

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Example1: find the significance level in the Pepsi-cola problem.


Solution:
CVR = 1049, µ = 1000, σ = 75, n = 9
1049 − 1000 49
α = 2 * P( z > ) = 2 * P( z > ) = 2 * P ( z > 1.96)
75 / 9 25

P ( z > 1.96) = 1 − P( z < 1.96) = 1 − 0.975 = 0.025


⇒ α = 2 * 0.025 = 0.05

Interpretation: There is only a 5% chance of concluding that the machine


is not working properly while in fact it is working properly.

Example2: In the Pepsi-cola problem, calculate the probability of type II


error if  = 5% and the true mean is  = 1025

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Source: Introductory Statistics by Weiss

Source: Introductory Statistics by Weiss

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 values are the following:


Note that, for Example 10.4, the critical 
σ 0 .5
CVL = µ − zα / 2 = 8 − 2.575 * = 7.818
n 50
σ 0.5
CVR = µ + zα / 2 = 8 + 2.575 * = 8.182
n 50
For Example 10.4, calculate β, the probability of committing TypeII error given
that the true mean breaking strength is 8.1 Kilograms.

(
β = Pr 7.818 < x < 8.182 µtrue = 8.1 )
 7.818 − 8.1 8.182 − 8.1 
β = Pr  <z<  = Pr( −3.99 < z < 1.16) = 0.877
 0. 5 / 50 0.5 / 50 

α is the area in blue


β is the area in yellow

7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3

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10.10 One Sample Test Concerning Variance

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