1) The document discusses the conditions necessary for sustained economic growth, noting that sustained growth in capital alone will eventually lead to diminishing returns and low rates of return that households won't accept.
2) It then introduces the concept of a "balanced growth path" where real interest rates, labor input, and the growth rates of output, consumption, investment and capital are all constant over time.
3) For an economy to be on a balanced growth path, the growth rate of technology must intrinsically determine the constant growth rates of other macroeconomic variables.
1) The document discusses the conditions necessary for sustained economic growth, noting that sustained growth in capital alone will eventually lead to diminishing returns and low rates of return that households won't accept.
2) It then introduces the concept of a "balanced growth path" where real interest rates, labor input, and the growth rates of output, consumption, investment and capital are all constant over time.
3) For an economy to be on a balanced growth path, the growth rate of technology must intrinsically determine the constant growth rates of other macroeconomic variables.
1) The document discusses the conditions necessary for sustained economic growth, noting that sustained growth in capital alone will eventually lead to diminishing returns and low rates of return that households won't accept.
2) It then introduces the concept of a "balanced growth path" where real interest rates, labor input, and the growth rates of output, consumption, investment and capital are all constant over time.
3) For an economy to be on a balanced growth path, the growth rate of technology must intrinsically determine the constant growth rates of other macroeconomic variables.
1) The document discusses the conditions necessary for sustained economic growth, noting that sustained growth in capital alone will eventually lead to diminishing returns and low rates of return that households won't accept.
2) It then introduces the concept of a "balanced growth path" where real interest rates, labor input, and the growth rates of output, consumption, investment and capital are all constant over time.
3) For an economy to be on a balanced growth path, the growth rate of technology must intrinsically determine the constant growth rates of other macroeconomic variables.
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Now, take equation (2.
9), the optimality condition for a firm’s use
of capital, and divide both sides by Kt : α ∗ Yt Kt = rt . (2.14) Holding labor and technology fixed, as capital increases Yt/Kt declines. At some point, α ∗ Yt/Kt will be less than the rental rate on capital rt . Since the rental rate is linked to households’ required after-tax return on savings (discussed later in this chapter), at some point households stop investing in capital because the rate of return on additional investment is too low. To sum up: sustained growth in the per-capita labor input is impossible, and sustained growth in the per-capita stock of capital, holding labor and technology fixed, yields after-tax rates of return on capital that are too low for households to accept. Thus, sustained growth in real GDP and real wages can only be achieved through sustained growth in technology. 2.3.2 Balanced Growth In the postwar period, the US has been on a “balanced-growth path.” On a balanced-growth path, • real interest rates (the pre-tax pre-depreciation marginal product of capital) are trendless; • the per-capita labor input is trendless; • output, consumption, investment, and capital all increase at the same rate; • the rate of growth of output, consumption, investment, and capital is intrinsically linked to the rate of growth of technology. In Chapter 1, we showed that the consumption-output and investment-output ratios have been trendless, or close to it, sincewhere δ is the constant depreciation rate on capital. Substituting in the capital-stock accounting equation into the GDP accounting equation yields: Yt = Ct + Kt+1 − Kt(1 − δ). Divide both sides by Yt and use the trick that 1/Yt = (1/Yt+1) ∗ (Yt+1/Yt ): 1 = Ct Yt + _ Kt+1 Yt+1 __ Yt+1 Yt _ − _ Kt Yt _ (1 − δ). (2.15) In balanced growth, the capital-output ratio (Kt+1/Yt+1 and Kt/Yt ), the growth rate of output (Yt+1/Yt ), and the depreciation rate (δ) are all constant. Since the number 1 and the depreciation rate δ are also constants, equation (2.15) shows that the consumption-output ratio must also be constant in a balanced growth environment. Now return to the GDP accounting equation and divide both sides by Yt such that: 1 = Ct Yt + It Yt . Since the consumption-output ratio is a constant, the investmentoutput ratio must also be constant. Summing up, in a balanced-growth environment, interest rates are trendless, implying that capital and output increase at the same rate (which is determined by the rate of growth of technology).When capital and output increase at the same rate,GDPaccounting implies that the consumption-output and investment-output ratios are constant
Before 1996, The BEA Held Expenditure Shares Fixed at Some Base Year, and The Base Year Was Updated Every Five Years. This Method Led To Large Revisions in Estimated