PERT Estimation Technique: Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely
PERT Estimation Technique: Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely
PERT uses a three point estimation approach for a task. Any task filled with
uncertainties can have a wide range of estimate in which the task actually will get
completed. Uncertainties include both favourable conditions (opportunities) as well
as unfavourable conditions (threats).
For example, if we think about a task which involves travelling in a crowded city
from a specific location in the city to the airport. Actual time taken will depend
upon the traffic condition on the road.
Actual time taken to travel will be anything within this range with the most likely
duration as 60 minutes. PERT allows applying statistical concepts to study the
probabilities of completing the tasks in a particular estimate range.
Assuming that the mean is exactly in the middle, and assuming the actual
estimates will follow a normal distribution within the extreme range of optimistic
and pessimistic estimates, we can predict the following probabilities of completing
the task in certain range of time as below:
Conclusion
PERT estimation technique will be a practical approach for estimating when the
tasks on hand are filled with uncertainties, where the tasks may take up different
estimates depending upon certain conditions. Actual estimate is dependent on
certain variables. PERT allows preparing a more practical estimate by factoring the
3 point estimates into one as explained above.