2019 UOL CF Notes Topic 1
2019 UOL CF Notes Topic 1
UNIVERSITY OF LONDON
(LSE)
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(UOL 3092)
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CORPORATE FINANCE
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Daniel Tan
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Notes
For Full Semester
Key Topics
Lecture No Key Lecture Topics Subject Guide
1 Understanding Time Value of Money Chapter 1
2 Applying TVM and valuation of projects Chapter 1
3 Using TVM to value stocks and bonds Chapter 1
4 Understanding Options and real options Chapter 2
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5 Understanding Options and real options Chapter 2
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6 Understanding Options and real options Chapter 2
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7
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8 Choice of Corporate Capital Structure Chapter 3
9 Modigliani and Miller Theorem 2 Chapter 3
10 M and M with Corporate and Personal Tax Chapter 4
11 Capital Structure and Agency Costs Chapter 5
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Recommended Textbook
“Corporate Finance by R Brealey”, SC Myers, F. Allen
“Financial Markets and Corporate Strategy” by M Grinblatt, S. Titman
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Topic 1
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Capital Budgeting
and
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Project Evaluation
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2 Broad Methods
NOTE:
For POA students, you must know PB, ARR, NPV, IRR
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Non-Discounted Methods
Payback Period (PB)
The payback period is the expected number of years required to recover the
original investment in a project i.e. measures the length of time without
discounting.
Decision Criteria:
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Project’s PB is less than the maximum acceptable PB – ACCEPT
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Project’s PB is more than the maximum acceptable PB – REJECT
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Advantages of PB:
• Simple to use and apply
• It is intuitive and considers risks
• Considers the early cash-flows rather than accounting profits (From
perspective of investor who prefers cashflows as returns)
• Considers liquidity (cash coming back to investors) and risk exposure
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Disadvantages of PB:
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Project A Project B
Investment $42,000 $45,000
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Solution Process
Project A
Investment $42,000
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Year
1
Op Cash Inflows
$14,000
End of Year
Cumulative Cashflow
$14,000
2 $14,000 $28,000
3 $14,000 $42,000
4 $14,000 $56,000
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Project B
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Investment $45,000
End of Year
Year Op Cash Inflows Cumulative Cashflow
1 $28,000 $28,000
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2 $12,000 $40,000
3 $10,000 $50,000
4 $10,000 $60,000
5 $10,000 $70,000 PB is 2.5 years
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Example 2
Project A Project B
Investment $50,000 $50,000
Answer:
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Payback Period 3 years 3 years But which is better?
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What is the learning point?
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Example 3
Project A Project B
Investment $10,000 $10,000
1 $5,000 $3,000
2 $5,000 $4,000
3 $1,000 $3,000
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4 $ 100 $4,000
5 $ 100 $3,000
Answer:
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10
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11
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Instructor Notes
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come from, or how the various time value is obtained very simply from the first. nating all but two right-hand terms:
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applications are related. This brief article Solving equation (4) for the present value
(9) FVAn [ (1 + i) – 1 ] = A (1 + i)n – A .
presents a derivation of all of the standard produces the following:
(and some less well-known) time value of Simplifying further and solving (9) for
FVn
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money formulas from the future value of = PV0 . FVAn gives us
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one dollar factor.
Basic future value applications are
easily understood at an intuitive level.
Suppose you have $1,000 in an account
today. If this amount earns a rate of re-
turn of 10% for a year, the balance grows
(5)
(1 + i)n
Thus, the basic present value of one
dollar factor is
PVFn =
1
(1 + i)n
.
(10) FVA n = A
(1 + i) n – 1 .
i
In this way, we have identified the future
value of an annuity factor:
(1 + i)n – 1 .
to $1,100 (the original $1,000 plus $100 We multiply a future amount by the FVAFn =
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in earnings). Symbolically, this time present value of one dollar factor to i
value adjustment can be represented as compute an equivalent present amount. Multiplying this factor by the amount of
the regular payment produces the future
(1) PV0 (1 + i) = FV1 ,
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with each successive installment, and payment would be the product of the loan loan constant factors as separate tools,
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the portion accounted for by principal amount, the future value factor, and the perhaps because of the importance in real
increases over time. In fact, interest sinking fund factor: estate analysis of computing loan pay-
payments decline at an increasing rate i i (1 + i) n . ments. Those who studied appraisal in
L (1 + i)n
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(they fall not only in dollar terms, but in =L days gone by will recall the six columns
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percentage terms as well), while principal
payments increase at an increasing rate.
Yet there is a different way to con-
ceive of dividing each payment into
interest and principal. Think of the case
of an interest-only loan, in which each
n
(1 + i) – 1 (1 + i)n – 1
This value is simply the product of the
amount borrowed and the mortgage loan
constant. Thus, the mortgage loan con-
stant can be viewed either as the sum of
the interest rate and sinking fund factor,
on each page in the Ellwood Tables.
Yet there are some other significant
time value formulas. One example used
extensively in real estate analysis is the
proportion of a loan’s principal that has
been paid off by the end of some time
payment consists only of interest (the or as the product of the future value period t. We compute this proportion by
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interest rate multiplied by the amount factor and the sinking fund factor. finding the periodic deposit into a sinking
borrowed), such that no principal is re- Of course, a standard fully amortizing fund sufficient to pay off the loan at the
paid through the regular payment stream mortgage loan, with a fixed interest rate end of the stated term. Then we find the
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(there would have to be a 100% balloon and unchanging payments, is simply the future value of that annuity at time t:
payment at the end of the loan’s life). present value of an annuity. We can, (1 + i)t – 1
i (1 + i)t – 1
Suppose further that the borrower pre- therefore, rewrite equation (11) as: L = L .
(1 + i) n – 1 i (1 + i) n – 1
pares for this eventual balloon payment i (1 + i) n
by making regular deposits into a savings PVAn =A . The factor thereby revealed is the pro-
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(1 + i) n – 1
account that earns the same rate of inter- portion paid off, a figure often needed
est that is paid on the loan. The amount Solving for the present value of the annu- by real estate appraisers and lenders:
that should be deposited into this account ity yields
(1 + i) t – 1 .
each month is computed as the sinking (1 + i)n – 1 . Pt =
PVA n = A (1 + i) n – 1
fund factor multiplied by the loan prin- i (1 + i)n
cipal. Putting these two notions together With these steps we have revealed the Of course, the proportion of the loan that
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(i.e., an interest-only loan combined with sixth (and last) of the time value of has not been repaid, and thus is still owed
a sinking fund) produces the following: money factors, that for the present value at the end of period t, is just one minus
i of an annuity: the proportion that has been paid off:
Li + L = total payment ;
(1 + i)n – 1 (1 + i)n – 1 . (1 + i)n – (1 + i) t
PVAFn = .
i (1 + i)n (12) 1 – P t =
collecting terms over a common denomi- (1 + i)n – 1
nator and simplifying results in: It is possible to put a different spin
Yet we can also approach this idea in
on the derivation of the present value of
n
i (1 + i) a different way. The amount still owed at
= loan payment . an annuity factor. Suppose that we find
(11) L the end of t periods is the present value of
(1 + i)n – 1 the future value of a specified level
all payments that must be made after t:
This exercise reveals yet another of the annuity. Then suppose that we compute
time value of money factors, the mort- the present value of that future value. (1 + i)n-t – 1 .
The result is the product of the level (13) A
gage loan constant, also known as the i (1 + i)n-t
amount to amortize one dollar: annuity amount, the future value of an
We leave it to the reader to prove that
annuity factor, and the present value of
i (1 + i)n one dollar factor:
equation (13) is identical to (12) multi-
= loan constant . plied by the loan amount. (Hint: substi-
(1 + i)n – 1 (1 + i)n – 1 1 (1 + i)n – 1.
A =A tute the loan amount times the mortgage
The mortgage loan constant therefore is i (1 + i) n i (1 + i)n loan constant for A in equation 12.)
Discounting Methods
Before doing discounting methods, we need to understand the basic of the
Time Value of Money (TVM). This involves Future Valuing (Compounding)
and Present Valuing (Discounting).
While there seem to be many formulas, learn the basics right. We will cover
all the following:
FV = PV (1 + r ) n
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B) The Present Value of a Single Dollar Cash Flow
FV
PV =
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C) The Present Value of a Non-Regular Cash Flows (If you know how to do
present valuing of a single dollar cash flow, you will know how to find the
present value of a series of non-similar or irregular cashflows)
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é1 1 ù PMT é 1 ù
PV of OA = PMT ê - ú= ê1 - ú
êë r r (1 + r ) n úû r ê (1 + r ) n ú
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ë û
"1 1 %
PV of AD = PMT $ − ' + PMT
# r r(1+ r)n−1 &
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é (1 + r ) n 1 ù PMT é
FV of OA = PMT ê - ú= (1 + r ) n - 1ù
êë r rú r ëê úû
û
" (1+ r)n 1 %
FV of AD = PMT $ − '[(1+ r)]
# r r&
Students find this confusing because they see all the formulas as different and
assumed to be un-related. Not knowing the basic principle well, other topics
such as NPV, IRR and PI will be deemed difficult to understand. Just make an
effort to LEARN this well and 20% of your effort to get 80% of your results
The most basic formula for compounding returns over time is:
FV = PV (1 + r ) n
Example 1:
A person has $10,000 in his bank account. The bank pays a 5% interest rate
annually. If he leaves the deposit in the bank for the entire 3-year period, what
will be the account worth in 3 years?
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FV = 10,000(1 + 0.05) 3 = $11,576.25
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Answer is $11,576.25
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Example 2:
If the information above remains the same except that the interest is
compounded twice a year, what will be the account worth in 3 years?
Answer is $11,596.93.
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Why is the amount larger than the above and what is the implication?
Example 3:
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An investor deposits $1,000 in the bank today. One year later, he deposits
another $3,000 and two years later after that, he deposits $8,000. If the bank
pays 4% interest, compounded annually, what will the balance in the account
be in 5 years after the original deposit and that the investor did not withdraw
any amount during this period?
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Answer is $13,377
An investor deposits $10,000 in the bank today. The bank pays 4% per year
for the first 2 years and 6% per year for the following 3 years. What will the
balance in the account be in 5 years after the original deposit and that the
investor did not withdraw any amount during this period?
Answer is $12,882
In finance, the value of any investment is the present value of all the future
cash flows that the investment is expected to generate for the investor.
FV
PV =
(1 + r ) n
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Example 5:
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If Steven expects a return of 15% in any investment to justify the risks he is
going to take, what will he be willing to pay today for an investment that
promises a cash flow of $10,000 in 5-year time?
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PV = $10,000 / (1.15)5 = $10,000(0.497) = $4,972
Answer is $4,972
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Example 6:
A financial institution agrees to pay 4% interests on its deposits, compounded
quarterly. A depositor wants to save $5,000 in 2-year time. How much must
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be deposited in the bank today in order to have the $5,000 in two years?
$5,000
PV = = $5,000(0.9235) = $4,617
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(1 + 0.01)8
Answer is $4,617
Example 7:
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An investment projects a cash flow of $3,000 next year, $2,000 the following
year and $6,000 two years from today. If the investor expects a required rate
of return of 4% annually, what will he be willing to pay today?
$3,000 $8,000
PV = + = $10,281
(1 + 0.04) (1 + 0.04) 2
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Answer is $10,281
Example 8:
An investment is expected to generate the following cash flows over the next
5 years:
Year 1 $5,000
Year 2 $2,000
Year 3 $(1000)
Year 4 $ 0
Year 5 3,000
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a) If an investor requires 8% return on this investment, what should the
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investor be willing to pay for it?
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Factor
5,000 0.9259
Value
4,629.50
Year 2 2,000 0.8573 1,714.60
Year 3 (1000) 0.7938 (793.80)
Year 4 0 0.7350 0
Year 5 3,000 0.6806 2,041.80
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Year 4 0 0 0
Year 5 3,000 0.864(0.925) 2,397.6
Most annuities are ordinary annuities (also called “regular” annuities) where
the SAME value cash flow is paid at the end of each financial period (i.e.
year, month, quarter etc.).
Like ordinary annuities, annuity due have similar regular cash flow but paid
at the beginning of each financial period (i.e. year, month, quarter etc).
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é1 1 ù PMT é 1 ù
PV of OA = PMT ê - ú= ê1 - ú
êë r r (1 + r ) n úû r êë (1 + r ) n úû
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PV of AD = PMT $ − ' + PMT
# r r(1+ r)n−1 &
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A short-term annuity retirement plan that pays $20,000 each year for 5 years
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is available to any retiree who is willing to deposit a lump sum today and will
get the first cash flow at the end of the first year. How much will Mary pay
today if she expects a rate of 12% per year on any investment she chooses?
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$20,000 é 1 ù
PV = ê1 - 5ú
= $20,000(3.605) = $72,100
0.12 ë (1 + 0.12 ) û
Answer is $72,100
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An annuity due retirement plan pays $10,000 each year for 5 years. If the
required rate of return is 4%, what is the lump sum amount today?
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Answer is $46,299
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Example 11: Different Interest Rates
An annuity pays $5,000 each year for 5 years starting today. It pays $6,000
per year for year 7 to year 10. The interest rates are 4% for the first 5 years
and 8% for years 6 to 10. What is the present value of these cash-flows?
(To solve this, read and draw the time line of the cash-flows and do remember
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The future value of ordinary annuity (OA) and Annuity Due (AD) are computed
with the following formulas:
é (1 + r )n 1 ù PMT
FV of OA = PMT ê - ú= é(1 + r )n - 1ù
êë r rú r êë úû
û
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Example 12: Future Value of an ordinary annuity
A person decides to save $10,000 per year at the end of this year into an
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account to generate a return of 12% per year. He is going to consistently do
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this deposit at the end of each of the next 5 years. What will be the total
amount in 5-year time?
FV = $10,000(6.3528) = $63,528
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Answer is $63,528
A person decides to save $10,000 per year beginning today into an account
for the next 5 years to generate a return of 12% per year. He is going to
consistently do this deposit at the beginning of each year. What will be the
total amount in 5-year time?
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Answer is $71,152
Peter decides to put $15,000 per year into a savings account for the next 4
years with the first payment being made at the end of the current year. After 4
years, the amount accumulated would be left in the account for another 5
years. If the account generates 4% in the first 4 years and 6% in the next 5
years, what will be the balance after 9 years?
FV 4 = $15,000(4.2465) = $63,697
FV 9 = $63,697(1.3382) = $85,204
Answer is $85,240
DISCOUNTING METHODS
Process for discounting methods
Ø Step 1: Identify the relevant cash-flows over the investment life span
Ø Step 3: Discount the future cash flows using appropriate discount rate.
This is usually the cost of capital (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
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which depends on the mix of equity and debt financing employed for the
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project.
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Net Present Value is the present value of all of the after-tax cash flows
associated with a project (including the investment itself), using the cost of
capital for the project as the discount rate.
Corporate Finance]
In other words, it is the net cash flows today when we use the present value of
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the all after-tax future inflows to deduct the initial investment costs incurred
today.
n
é Ct ù
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NPV = å ê tú
- Initial Investment
t =1 ë (1 + r ) û
Decision Criteria
• If NPV > 0, accept the project [implies highest NPV project is the best]
• If NPV < 0, reject the project
• If NPV = 0, we are indifferent
All positive NPV projects are acceptable and priority is given to the highest
NPV project before lower but positive NPV projects are taken. This is
assuming all projects are independent.
(We will further discuss capital constraints and mutually exclusive projects
and projects that are divisible and non-divisible)
Advantages of NPV
Disadvantages of NPV
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• More difficult for non-financial managers to understand
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• May not be able to handle capital rationing (limited funds)
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Project A
Project B
(100)
(50)
70
40
1st
3rd
Project C (70) 60 2nd
a) If the firm has only $100 to invest, which project or projects should be
chosen?
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If management choose Project C, the $70 invested will get $60 NPV
With $30 left, management can invest in Project B.
So, with the same $100 invested in Project C and B, the firm gets
($60 + $24) = $84 (NPV is higher than if only Project A is chosen)
Situations where highest NPV or Positive NPV projects are not selected
Step 1 : Present value for all the future cash flows in the project.
Step 2 : Use the PV of all future cash flows calculated in Step 1 and deduct
the investment costs today i.e. point 0.
Step 3 : Decision making on the project based on the criteria stated above.
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For Project A:
NPV = (14,000)(3.791) - $42,000 = $53,701 - $42,000 = $11,071
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For Project B:
$28,000 $12,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000
NPV = + + + + - $45,000
1 2 3 4 5
(1 + 0.10) (1 + 0.10) (1 + 0.10) (1 + 0.10) (1 + 0.10)
= ($55,924 - $45,000) = $10,924
Example 15
Consider 2 projects, A and B, with expected return rate of 14% and cashflows
as follows:
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1 80 43
2 70 50
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Step 1: Calculate the NPV over the project’s life (as taught earlier)
Step 2: Use the calculated NPV and compute the annuity over the life of
the project
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Step 3: Choose the higher annual annuity (if revenue items) or lower
annual annuity (if expense items)
Example 16
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Step 1: Calculate the NPV of the project
Years Machine A 8% PVCF Machine B 8% PVCF
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1 20,000 0.926 18,519 8,000 0.926 7,407
2 25,000 0.857 21,433 10,000 0.857 8,573
3 27,000 0.794 21,433 12,000 0.794 9,526
4 14,000 0.735 10,290
5 15,000 0.681 10,209
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Can you think of a faster way to calculate the NPV for the above machines?
Step 3: Choose the higher annual annuity (if revenue items) or lower
annual annuity (if expense items)
The EAA for Machine A and B are $ _______ and $ ______ respectively
So since the cashflow is revenue related, we should select Machine ____
Profitability index measures the return per dollar invested based on the
required rate (cost of capital).
(In this case, positive NPV project will have greater than zero)
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OR alternatively presented as
PV of all Future CF
Profitability Index is =
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Decision Criteria
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Ø If PI > 0, implies positive NPV project and thus, accept the project
Ø If PI < 0, implies negative NPV project and therefore, reject the project
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Ø If PI > 1, implies positive NPV project and thus, accept the project
Ø If PI < 1, implies negative NPV project and therefore, reject the project
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Example 17
If all the projects are not divisible and the firm has only $40,000 to invest,
which projects should be chosen?
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Investment Net Present Profitability
Cost Value Index
Project D 25,000 30,000 1.20
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Project C 15,000 25,000 1.67
OR
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If all the projects are divisible and the firm has only $40,000 to invest, which
projects should be chosen?
• The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the discount rate that will equate the
present value of the outflows with the present value of the inflows.
• This means IRR makes the NPV = zero
• The IRR is the project’s intrinsic rate of return.
n
é Ct ù
0= å êë (1 + r) úû - Initial Investment
t =1
t
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NPV
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%
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Process:
Step 1 : Find NPV (as small value as possible) using 2 different interest rates
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Decision Criteria :
If IRR > Required rate of return, then ACCEPT project
If IRR < Required rate of return, then REJECT project
The furthest IRR from the cost of capital or discount rate is the better project
to choose.
Note : IRR can be termed as the required rate of return, the discount rate
or the weighted cost of capital
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Process:
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Step 1 : Find NPV (as small value as possible) using 2 different interest rates
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Advantages
• Considers the time value of money
• It allows comparison for projects of different sizes because it is a relative
measure
Disadvantages
• May be inconsistent with NPV for mutually exclusive projects as the
choice of projects based on IRR and NPV conflict.
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• May not have a unique solution - multiple IRRs and the cause of this is
non-conventional cash-flows
• Assumes reinvestment rate is equal to the IRR – and this may not be
realistic.
Depreciation expense over the years of asset usage reduces the original
value (cost) of the asset.
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The Net Book Value is = Cost of Asset less Accumulated Depreciation
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Understand how to calculate depreciation
Understand how Gain and Loss is calculated on the Sale of Old Asset
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Knowing depreciation incurred each year allows you to get the AD.
Knowing AD allows you to calculate the Net Book Value (NBV)
If the selling price is greater than the NBV, there is a gain that will be taxed
If the selling price is lesser than the NBV, there is a loss in the income
statement which will then reduce the amount of taxes paid.
Note that the Income Statement only calculates the profit each year and the
gain or loss value is not a cash flow. Therefore, we cannot use profit to
determine NPV since NPV uses CF for calculations.
We need to convert the profit back to cash flows. Items in the income
statement that are not cash-flow are Depreciation, Gain or Loss on sale of an
asset.
The following table shows the general set up for your solution for UOL.
Note: Where you place numbers depends on the question and not items
listed below are required)
Years 0 1 2 3
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Add Gain on sale of asset +ve +ve
Less any incremental costs -ve -ve -ve
Less Annual opportunity costs -ve -ve -ve -ve
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Net Profit before tax - ve/+ve +ve +ve -ve
Tax at 20% +ve/-ve -ve -ve +ve
Net Profit after taxes $ $ $ $
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NPV = PV of all future cashflow less the investment outflow today = $$$
Information not used : ((Show the grader and explain why)) Examples :
market research, survey, development cost incurred BEFORE the start of
project is not relevant.
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Valuation of Financial
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Assets:
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Bonds
Ordinary Shares
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Preferred Shares
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General Valuation Models
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All investments (both bonds and stocks) have cash-flows.
Bonds
Are debt instruments
Have regular interest payments i.e. a fixed obligation
Have priority over stocks (equity)
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Preferred Stocks
Pay a fixed dividend each year i.e. a fixed obligation
Dividends paid are not tax deductible
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Has higher priority of payments over ordinary shares but after bonds
But lower priority of payments against bonds
Does not have voting rights
Are not the real owners of the company
Ordinary Stocks
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¥
Future CF ¥
Value today = P0 = PV of ALL Future Cash-flows = å
n =1 (1 + i ) n
= å PVCF
n =1
0
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0 I ~ ~ ~ 0 I .l- ~ oC"\
01 t>:t. 0~ DN
• T~-rm t'° Met~~~ r\~\c..
PVo,_-:.. - + (- ..\--~ - PV.fs-:.
C l'+r') \ kf"' )~ t \~'r') · · · • ( H '<")"
r u Co
PVo ::. '(o\l,~aV) RClte R'1~k
se py
-(JllC
on
ly ·0 s=a·t~, ~:4 9:s
35
36
Valuing Bonds
Features of a bond:
• Coupon Rate: rate is used to calculate the annual interest payment to the
investor.
• Maturity date: this is when the term of the bond ends.
• The Face Value: Also known as the Par Value or Maturity value is the
paper value of the bond. It is usually $1,000
• The Purchase Price today: The price the bond is issued at or the price an
investor is willing to pay for the investment.
• The Market Interest Rate: The rate used to compute present value of the
cash-flows in the bond.
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Cash-flows of a bond
A bond has a coupon rate that is used to calculate the annual interest
on
payment (cash flow) given to the investor. A bond also pays back the maturity
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or par value of the bond at the end of the contract.
MV
C1 C2 C3 C4 Cs
t t t t t t
ou ot
Year
0 1 2 3 4 5
ry N
PV C1 C2 MV +CN
= (1 + r )1 + (1 + r )2 + .. ·+ (1 + r )N
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Example 1:
If today is October 1, 2012, what is the present value of the following bond?
An XYZ bond pays $115 every September 30 for 5 years (implies coupon rate
is 11.5%). In September 2017 it pays an additional $1,000 and retires the
bond. The expected rate of return for the investor (called the yield to maturity
(YTM)) is 8%
1000
115
115 115 115 115
t t t t t t Year
se py
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ly
on
Using Basic TVM concept
r u Co
PV = 115 + 115 + 115 + 115 + (115+1000)
1.08 (1.08 )
2
(1.08 )
3
(1.08 )4 (1.08 y
= $l l3 9 .74
'
Using Formula
ou ot
PV = PV of Ordinary Annuity + PV of Future Single Value (MV)
= ~[1--1 -]+
ry N
PV 5
l,OOO5 = $1139.74
0.08 1.08 1.08 '
Example 2
In July 2012 you purchase a 3-year US Government bond. The bond has an
annual coupon rate of 4%, paid semi-annually. If investors demand an annual
return of 6%, what is the price of the bond?
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ly
Using Basic TVM concept
on
r u Co 20 20 20 20 20 (20 + 1000)
PV = + + + + + = $945.83
1.03 (1.03) (1.03) (1.03) (1.03)
2 3 4 5
(1.03)6
Using Formula
ou ot
20 é 1 ù 1,000
PV = 1- + - 945.83
ry N
ê
0.03 ë 1.036 úû 1.036
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on
r u Co
ou ot
ry N
Relationship between coupon rate, yield to maturity and the price of a bond
• For par valued bonds, the Coupon Rate is = YTM (IRR of the bond)
• For premium bonds, the Coupon Rate is > YTM (IRR of the bond)
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• For discount bonds, the Coupon Rate is < YTM (IRR of the bond)
©
Valuing Stocks
Single Period Stock Valuation
Consider a 1 period stock valued at P0 today.
At the end of Period 1, it pays dividend (D1) and the Price increase to PN at
the end of 1 period.
Div1 PN
P0 = +
(1 + r )1
(1 + r ) N
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Where N is the time (usually in years)
on
Multiple Period Stock Valuation
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If the stock pays multiple dividends over different period and the price
increases to Pn at the end of n period, P0 will be
D1 D2 D3 D¥
P0 = + + + ... +
(1 + re ) (1 + re ) (1 + re )
1 2 3
(1 + re )¥
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And is finally represented simply as
D1 D (1+ g )
P0 = = 0
on
r u Co re - g re - g
where g is the constant growth rate of the dividend and re is the expected
return
ou ot
Po
Where r (the return rate) is the sum of Dividend Yield and capital gain
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The formula can be applied at any time frame and is represented as:
D
Pn = n+1
re - g
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Example 3
Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24, and
$3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you
anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of
the stock given a 12% expected return?
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3.00 3.24 3.50 + 94.48
PV = + + = $75.00
on
r u Co (1 + .12) (1 + .12)
1 2
(1 + .12)3
Example 4
If stock expecting a 12% return rate is selling for $100 in the stock market,
what might the market be assuming about the growth in dividends?
ou ot
ry N
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Example 5
What would an investor be willing to pay for a stock if she just received a
dividend of $2.50, her required return is 15%, and she expected dividends to
grow at a rate of 10% per year for the first two years, and then at a rate of 5%
thereafter.
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2.50 2.50(1+0.10) 2.50(1+0.10)2 3.03(1+0.05)
=2.75 =3.03 = 3.18
t t1 t t
on
r u Co t t
n Year
0 2 3 4
Using the Gordon Growth Model, compute the value at P2 for all dividends
growing at 5%
ou ot
Solution:
The formula can be applied at any time frame and is represented as:
ry N
3 8
P2 = __!!__!__ = .1 = $31.80
r - g 0.15 - 0.05
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Now find the PV of each of the cash flow at 01 ($ 2.75) and 02 ($ 34.83)
PV of $2.75at15% = $2.39
PV of $34.83 (02 + P2) at 15% = $26.34
D1
P0 =
re - g
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D1
if g = 0, then P0 =
re
on
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Example 6
How much would I have to deposit today in order to withdraw $1,000 each
year forever if I can earn 8% on my deposit?
ou ot
ry N
Example 7
What if g is not given directly?
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If interest rate is 10% and assuming it is end of 2017 today, what is the price
of this stock with an expected constant dividend growth rate?
2015 $1.40
2016 $1.55
2017 $1.59
é1 1 ù
The formula is PV of annuity = Pmt ´ ê - nú
ë i i(1 + i ) û
Pmt é 1 ù
PV of annuity = ´ ê1 - ú [take out the common factor ‘i’]
i ë (1 + i )n û
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If n goes into infinity, (1+i)n becomes infinity
é 1 ù
on
r u Co
Therefore, ê n ú tends to zero and we are left with
ë (1 + i ) û
Pmt
PV of perpetuity =
i
ou ot
ry N
Question: Do you know how to derive the formula for PV of ordinary annuity?
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©