CHAPTER

10 PROBABILITY

SKILLS TO KNOW
• Basic probability
• Finding the probability something will not happen
• Independent events & dependent events
• And situations/Or situations
• Probability & permutations
• Finding expected values
• Probability notation, union & intersection

NOTE: This chapter builds heavily on Chapter 9 in this book, Counting & Arrangements. Be sure
you have a handle on Chapter 9 before attempting this chapter.

BASIC PROBABILITY
The probability of an event occurring is the likelihood that something will happen.

Probability is expressed as a decimal or fraction between 0 and 1, inclusive. If the probability of an

event is 1, it will happen with 100% certainty. The closer the probability of an event is to 1, the more
likely it will occur. The closer the probability of an event is to zero, the less likely it is to occur.

When the selection of an outcome is at random, we can calculate probability by creating a fraction:
Number of possible desired outcomes
Number of total possible outcomes
For example, if we want to know the chances of choosing a blue marble from a box when there are
3
3 blue marbles and 10 marbles total, that would be .
10
This can also be expressed as:
Number of “successful” outcomes possible
Number of “successful” outcomes possible + Number of “failed” outcomes possible
For example, if there are 3 blue marbles and 7 other colored marbles, there are 3 ways to succeed
and 7 ways to fail if I pick one marble out of the box and want a blue one. The probability is thus:
3
3+7

There are 52 cards in a deck of cards. There are 4 suits (spades, clubs, diamonds, and
hearts), each with 13 cards, 3 of which are face cards. 2 suits are red, and 2 are black.
If a card is drawn at random, what is the probability that it is a red face card?


SKILLS PROBABILITY

To solve, we use the fraction formula for finding probability:

Number of possible desired outcomes
Number of total possible outcomes
We need to find two things:
1. The numerator: the number of red face cards (what we want).
()
We have 3 face cards per suit. Two of the suits are red. That means we have 2 3 or 6 total red
face cards.
2. The denominator: the total number of cards in the deck (total possible outcomes).
Per the question, we have 52 cards in the deck. We now divide the value for #1 above by that
of #2: 6 3
=
52 26
3
Answer: .
26

PROBABILITY THAT SOMETHING WON’T HAPPEN

Finding the probability something will happen can also be solved by calculating the probability
that something won’t happen. In the world of probability, success and failure are mutually exclusive
concepts: either something happens or it doesn’t; two options exist. As a result, the probability that
something will happen and that something won’t happen always sum to 1 . For example, if there is a
3 2
chance you’ll pick a red marble from a bucket, there is a chance you won’t.
5 5
If you need to know the probability that something happens, but it’s easier to find the
probability of that something not happening, solve for the latter probability and subtract
from one. Likewise, if you’re asked to find the probability of something not happening and it’s easier to
solve for probability of something happening, solve for that and subtract from one.

There are 100 slips of paper numbered 1 through 100 inclusive in a hat. If one slip
is drawn at random, what is the probability the number drawn is not a perfect square?

I know 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, ..., 81, 100 are the list of perfect squares. I omitted the middle, because I
know how each is formed: squaring a number 1 to 10 inclusive, as 1 is 1 squared, and 100 is 10
squared. In between, I’ll have 22 , 32 , 42 , etc. Thus I know there will be 10 of these numbers in the
list. As a result, the probability of getting a perfect square as my number on the slip is:
10 1
=
100 10
1 9
Now I subtract this value from 1 to find the answer: 1 − =.
10 10
9
Answer: .
10

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INDEPENDENT VS. DEPENDENT EVENTS

In the previous chapter, we defined independent and dependent events. To review:

Independent events don’t affect the outcome of other events. For example, if I flip a penny and
get heads, I’m not more or less likely to get heads again on a second flip. Coin flips, dice rolls, and
situations with wording such as “with replacement” or “items/digits can repeat” are typically
independent events.

Dependent events affect the probability of subsequent events. Drawing three letters from a bag
of lettered tiles, choosing people for a team, or selecting songs to sing at a recital are all dependent
events. You wouldn’t sing the same song twice at your voice recital, so what you pick for the first
song affects what you choose for the 2nd. If you had 4 songs to choose from, after you choose one
song you’ll only have 3 songs to choose from. Often, you’ll see words like “distinct,” “unique,” or
“without replacement” when encountering problems that involve dependent events.

“AND” SITUATIONS
If the probability of two independent events are A and B, then the probability of both A
“AND” B occurring (assuming each event is unique, or order matters) is A times B. In short, when
you have an “AND” situation (Event A is true AND Event B is true) you multiply.

Ned is throwing a coin to see if it’s heads or tails. What is the probability that he will
throw heads three times in a row?

1
This is an “AND” situation involving independent events. The chance of getting heads once is .
2
Since Ned will be doing this three times and order matters (to get three heads in a row we need each
1 1 1 1
subsequent toss to be heads, the first, the second, and the third) we multiply × × to get .
2 2 2 8
1
Answer: .
8
A similar trend emerges with dependent events. We still multiply probabilities together when
both event A AND event B are true to find the probability both are true (assuming order matters).
However, we must take event A into account when we calculate the probability of B. In other words,
we multiply (Probability of Event A) (Probability of event B given event A happening first).

Marlin is choosing three toys at random to take to the beach from her basket of 10
1
beach toys. If of the beach toys are plastic, what is the probability she chooses all
2
plastic toys?

We start by remembering the fraction that defines probability:

Number of possible desired outcomes
Number of total possible outcomes
These are dependent events, so as I work I must take into account the previous choices. I want to find
the probability that three particular events occur in a row: she chooses a plastic toy first, a plastic toy

134 CHAPTER 10


SKILLS PROBABILITY

second, and a plastic toy third. For all of these events to be true, we have an “AND” situation. Each
of these events must occur in order to get my desired outcome. Thus we can find the probability of
each case and then must multiply these individual probabilities together.
5 4
Her probability of choosing a plastic toy the first time is , but the second is . When she chooses
10 9
the 2nd toy, the 1st toy is no longer an option; there are only 4 plastic toys to choose from and 9
3
toys left in total to choose from. When she chooses the third toy, there is a chance she chooses
8
a plastic one. At this point, she will only have 3 plastic toys left to choose from and 8 toys in total.

5 4 3 1
As you can see, we reduce the numerator and denominator accordingly as we go: × × = .
10 9 8 12
Why can we solve this problem using a “permutation” when it sounds like a combination?

Though order doesn’t matter here in one sense (she is selecting a few items from a group), it DOES
matter in terms of her selecting a toy that is plastic on each turn, i.e. each moment when she chooses
a toy a certain event must occur: she picks a plastic toy each time. Thus we can still treat this as a
permutation and not a combination. We could actually solve this problem using combinations as well.
For that method, we’d rely again on the fraction that defines probability, and calculate our numerator
as the number of ways to choose 3 plastic toys from 5 ( 5C 3 or “ 5 choose 3 ”) and then divide that
by the number of ways to choose 3 toys from 10 ( 10C 3 or “ 10 choose 3 ”). Using our calculator’s
C 10 1
built in combinations function we get: 5 3 which equals or .
10C 3 120 12
“OR” SITUATIONS
Sometimes we can find a probability by adding together the probability of all the unique ways we
could get what we want. These cases are essentially “OR” scenarios. Situation A is true or B is true
or C is true, for example. When we have “OR” situations in probability, and our elements are unique
(i.e. “mutually exclusive”) we ADD the probabilities together. Add the probability of all the unique
cases that produce your desired outcome to find the overall probability of that outcome.

Let’s say we want to know the probability of flipping one head and one tail when two coins are
1
flipped. For example, if the chance I get heads then tails on two coin flips is and the chance I get
1 4
tails then heads on two coin flips is , then the chance in two flips of a coin that result in one heads
1 1 1 4
and one tails is + or .
4 4 2
WARNING: If you add probabilities together, you must be certain the outcomes included within
each probability you’ve calculated DO NOT OVERLAP. Events must be distinct or “mutually
exclusive” if you’re going to add their probabilities. I can’t be in 4th grade and in 5th grade, those are
mutually exclusive events that do not overlap. But I could be in 4th grade and female. Those are NOT
mutually exclusive events. So if I know 1/2 the students at a school are female and 1/5 are in 4th
grade, I CANNOT simply add 1/2 plus 1/5 to find the probability of selecting a student at random
who is female and/or in fourth grade. If I did, I would double count all the fourth grade girls.

CHAPTER 10 135

PROBABILITY SKILLS

A multiple-choice quiz has four answer options for each of five questions. What is the
probability of choosing answer choices at random and missing exactly one question?

Because getting a question right or wrong is independent of how I did on the last question (assuming
I’m guessing at random), the events are independent. To solve this problem, I’ll pretend order matters
and break it into multiple cases in which order matters that produce the combination we want.

To get four right and one wrong could look like this:
1 1 1 1 3 3
× × × × =
4 4 4 4 4 1024
This is the probability that I miss ONE question, and that the question I miss is the LAST question.
3
But there are 5 different orders this could happen in, i.e. the “wrong question” (our in the string
4
above) could also be 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th:
Case 1: I get question 1 wrong: Case 3: I miss question 3:
3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3
× × × × = × × × × =
4 4 4 4 4 1024 4 4 4 4 4 1024
Case 2: I miss question 2: Case 4: I miss question 4:
1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3
× × × × = × × × × =
4 4 4 4 4 1024 4 4 4 4 4 1024
For each of these cases the fractions are the same as the case I initially wrote out, but just in a different
3
order. Each of the five cases has a probability of .
1024
This is an “or” situation because any of the above options will work and none will overlap. I thus need
3 3
the sum of all these possibilities. I could add to itself five times, or simply multiply by
1024 1024
five to get the answer:
 3  15
5 =
 1024  1024
15
Answer: .
1024

USING PERMUTATIONS IN PROBABILITY PROBLEMS

More complex probability problems synthesize your knowledge of counting problems and of
probability. To solve these problems, remember probability is always found by finding:
Total number of outcomes that fulfill the desired parameters
Total number of possible outcomes
Oftentimes, we can use permutations (or the fundamental counting principle or even combinations)
to solve for each of these two values, and then in turn solve for the probability. The ACT® rarely
requires you to know how to do these with combinations, so I’ll focus on permutations. Still, the same
principle would work if the problem you confront involves combinations.

136 CHAPTER 10


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In the bleachers of a football stadium, 2 boys and 3 girls are seated together in a
random order. What is the probability that the 2 boys are seated next to each other?

First, we know we need to solve for two values:

1. Total number of ways to arrange 2 boys and 3 girls such that the 2 boys are always next to
each other (numerator of our probability)
2. Total number of ways to arrange 5 kids (I could say 2 boys and 3 girls, but each person is
actually unique, so this is really just how to arrange 5 kids; thinking this way makes the math
easier).

Both of these elements can be solved using permutations and a bit of creativity.

Let’s start with #1:

When I need to keep 2 items next to each other in a permutation, one way I can think of this is Case
1/Case 2. Let’s name our boys Brian and Max, and our girls Leah, Wei Wei, and Ann.
Case 1: Brian is seated directly to the left of Max
Case 2: Brian is seated directly to the right of Max
Now I can solve for the number of permutations I have, pretending that Brian and Max are “glued”
together and essentially are one person. I’ll just calculate the number of ways to arrange for each case
and add all the possibilities together.
Case 1: I can choose from the following four taken four at a time:
Brian/Max, Leah, Wei Wei, Ann
4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
Case 2: I can choose from the following four taken four at a time:
Max/Brian, Leah, Wei Wei, Ann
4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
I add these together and get 48 (I also could have seen that Case 1 & 2 will have the same number
of options, and thus could have simply multiplied 24 by 2). In any case, I know my numerator: 48 .
Now for Step #2:
How many ways can I arrange 5 kids, in order? 5 kids taken 5 at a time when order matters is simply:
5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 =
120
120 is my denominator.

Now I simplify the fraction:

Total number of outcomes that fulfill the desired parameters
Total number of possible outcomes

48 2
= = or .4
120 5

CHAPTER 10 137

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EXPECTED VALUES
Finding the expected value is like finding a weighted average. Here’s an example.

The probability distribution of the discrete random variable Y is shown in the table
below. What is the expected value of Y ?

y
Probability
P (Y = y )
0 0.15
1 0.26
2 0.29
3 0.11
4 0.19

First of all, don’t be thrown by the language “discrete random variable.” That just means that Y
is not continuous as a possible value. For example, the number of people in an elevator is a discrete
number because you can’t have half a person; every number is a whole number. If I listed out
probabilities of the number of people in the office elevator on any given trip, my values would all
be discrete. Discrete variables don’t have to be integers, but the point is that you don’t have to worry
about a bunch of values in between what is on your chart.

MISTAKE ALERT! Whenever I have problems with a probability chart like this, I always
double check that the given probabilities add to one. If not, the chart is not a complete
depiction of what is going on and I must account for that. Occasionally these problems will
only give you the “first few” or “select” values of this variable and not all of them.

Here, I see that all my probabilities sum to 1 . Thus I know to find my expected value, I simply
multiply the value of y times its probability of occurring. Then I add all these little values up:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (
0 0.15 + 1 0.26 + 2 0.29 + 3 0.11 + 4 0.19 )
=0 + 0.26 + 0.58 + 0.33 + 0.76
= 1.93
The answer should essentially be the weighted average of the values in your chart. If your answer
doesn’t seem about “average,” go back and check your work. Here this makes sense. 1 and 2 occur
most often.

Answer: 1.93 .

138 CHAPTER 10


SKILLS PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY NOTATION, UNION & INTERSECTION

(FYI, this is NOT frequently tested. This section is for overachievers with lots of time only!).

Occasionally, the ACT® may use certain notation to denote probability. Typically, however, the
ACT® will define this notation for you if you are expected to use it. That means you shouldn’t worry
too much about remembering everything below; just be familiar with it.

( ) ( )
We say that the probability of Event A occurring is P A . What that means is that if I write “ P A ”
that represents the fraction or decimal probability that something happens. Similarly the probability
( ) ( )
of Event B occurring would be P B , of Event C, P C and so on.

Let P ( A ) represent the probability of event A occurring. If event R occurs when

three coins are flipped and all are heads, calculate P ( not R ) .

For this problem, we can first calculate the odds of getting all heads by multiplying the independent
1
probability of each event. Since the probability of flipping heads is , we multiply:
2
1 1 1 1
× × =
2 2 2 8
Because we need “not R” we now subtract the probability of getting R from 1 :
1 8 1 7
1− = − =
8 8 8 8
7
Answer: .
8
“UNION”
You may occasionally see a U-like symbol in probability problems. When it is facing upwards, we call
this “union.” For example, the probability of A union B is denoted by:
P (A ∪B )
Union is the probability that A happens, B happens, or both happen. It is always greater than or
equal to the probability of A alone or B alone. The picture below is one way to visualize A union B
if there is some overlap.

Unlike the “mutually exclusive” situations discussed earlier, union situations often involve overlap
(though they need not involve overlap). For example, if event A is having brown hair and event B is
having blue eyes, some people have both traits, and that would be “overlap” if we counted those who
had A OR B. When events have some overlap we call these “inclusive events.”

CHAPTER 10 139

PROBABILITY SKILLS

If Events A and B are inclusive, then the probability that A or B occurs is the sum of their
probabilities minus the probability that both occur; i.e. to find the combined probability of
inclusive events, we add the individual probabilities together and subtract the overlap:
P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A and B )
To help understand the formula, draw a Venn diagram to visualize, as in the problem below.

In in a class of 24 students, if 12 students have blue eyes, the probability of which is

denoted by P ( A ) , 8 students have brown hair, the probability of which is denoted by
P ( B ) , and 4 students have both, the probability of which is denoted by P ( A and B ) ,
what is the probability that students have brown hair or blue eyes, denoted by
P ( A or B ) ?

First, don’t be thrown by all the notation. It’s only there to confuse you. I know probability is the
number of desired outcomes divided by the possible outcomes. I know I have 24 kids in the class, so
that is my denominator. My numerator is the number of blue eyed and brown haired students inclusive,
i.e. anyone who has either trait or both: those with brown hair and not blue eyes, those with both blue
eyes and brown hair, and those with blue eyes and not brown hair. I can start by figuring out each of
these cases using the Venn Diagram below. I subtract 4 (overlap) from 8 (number of students who
have brown hair) to find the number who have brown hair but not blue eyes and subtract 4 from 12
to find blue-eyed kids without brown hair ( 8 ):

I can now add each segment in my Venn Diagram to find the number of people who have either
brown hair, blue eyes, or both ( 4 + 4 + 8 =
16 ).

I can also find this by taking 8 + 12 − 4 =16 , per the formula we discussed earlier.
16 4 2
Now I place 16 over 24 : = = .
24 6 3
2
Answer: .
3

NOTE: For more on Venn Diagrams see the Chapter 11: Word Problems in Book 1.

140 CHAPTER 10


SKILLS PROBABILITY

“INTERSECTION”
Another notation you might see is an upside down “U.” We call this an intersection. The probability
of A intersection B is denoted by:
P A ∩B ( )
An intersection occurs when A AND B are both simultaneously true. It is always less than or equal
to the probability of A or B alone.

The picture below depicts what A intersection B looks like; it is the “overlap” of values in both sets:

Let A and B be independent events. Denote P ( A ) as the probability that event A

will occur, P ( A ∪ B ) as the probability that event A or B or both will occur. Which
of the following equations must be true? (Note: P ( A ∪ B =) P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ) P ( B ) .)

A. P ( A ) P (=
B ) P (A ∪B )
B. P ( A ) > P ( A ∪ B )
C. P ( B ) − P ( A )= P ( A ∩ B ) − 2P ( A ) + P ( A ) P ( B )
D. P ( A ∪ B ) > P ( A ) + P ( B )
E. P ( A ) P ( A ∪ B=) P ( A ) − P ( A ) P ( B ) + P ( A ) P ( B )
2 2

Let’s go through each choice:

( ) ( )
A. P A P =
B P A ∪B ( )
When we multiply two independent probabilities together, we find the chances that both occur.
Thus this is a calculation of the intersection, NOT the union. A is incorrect.

( ) (
B. P A > P A ∪ B )
We know that union essentially adds any items in set B to set A. Thus the probability of A
alone cannot be greater than a probability that has at least as many if not more options that
make it true. B is also incorrect.

( ) ( ) ( )
C. P B − P A = P A ∩ B − 2P A + P A P B ( ) ( ) ( )
At first, this might look like an algebraic manipulation of the original, given equation. Except
it includes the symbol for INTERSECTION not UNION. Be careful! All U’s are not the
same!

CHAPTER 10 141

PROBABILITY SKILLS

( ) ( )
D. P A ∪ B > P A + P B ( )
Again the union is the set of all the items in A plus all the items in B, minus any overlap (if
applicable). If there were no overlap, the two sides of this expression would be equal. Since
that is possible, I know this is not something that MUST be true. In fact, it can’t be true. If
( ) ( )
there is overlap, then P A + P B will overestimate the value of the union (as it is the total
before subtraction of the overlapping elements in the sets). Reversing the inequality sign and
( ) ( )
making it “or equal to” would make this expression true (i.e. P A ∪ B ≤ P A + P B ).( )
E. Looking at the left of the equation, we see that we’ve simply multiplied the union by P ( A ) .
Let’s use substitution and expand this expression, using the information in the “Note”:
P ( A )P ( A ∪ B )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
We now plug in P A + P B − P A P B for P A ∪ B (this is given in the problem).
P ( A ) (P ( A ) + P (B ) − P ( A )P (B ) )
Using the distributive property we get:
P ( A ) + P ( A )P (B ) − P ( A ) P (B )
2 2

Now we rearrange using the commutative property:

P ( A ) − P ( A ) P (B ) + P ( A )P (B )
2 2

Answer: E.

142 CHAPTER 10


QUESTIONS PROBABILITY

1. A box contains 10 blue marbles, 30 green marbles, 4. In a set of integers from 1 to 50, inclusive, what is the
and 24 orange marbles. How many orange marbles probability of randomly selecting a prime number?
must be added so that there is a 60% chance of picking
an orange marble at random? 1
A.
10
A. 36
1
B. 40 B.
C. 44 5
D. 48 C. 2
E. 52 5
D. 3
{
2. A number is chosen from the set 1,2,3, 4,5,… ,24 . } 10
What is the probability that the number is a factor of
18? E. 1
4
1
A.
2 5. An integer from 10 through 999, inclusive, is to be
1 chosen at random. What is the probability that the inte-
B. ger has 3 as 2 (not more) of its digits?
3
1 A. 1
C.
4 3
1 B. 1
D. 33
5
11
1 C.
E. 330
6
2
3. There are 8 children, and you are assigned to line them D.
55
up from youngest to oldest. You know which child is the
oldest, which child is the second youngest, and which 3
E.
child is the youngest, but the other 5 children’s ages are 110
unknown. If you randomly sort the middle 5 children,
what is the probability that all the children are ordered 6. There are 200 paper slips in a hat, each numbered from
correctly? 1 , 2,…, 200 with no repeats. What is the proba-
1 bility that the number on a slip drawn at random is not
A. irrational?
20
1 7
B. A.
120 100
1 6
C. B.
760 100
1 5
D. C.
5 100
1 93
E. D.
25 100
94
E.
100

CHAPTER 10 143

PROBABILITY QUESTIONS

7. O’Shea puts 7 blue marbles in a box. He now wants 10. At a start-up company with a staff of 15 people, 6 peo-
to add enough yellow marbles so that the probability of ple are male and 9 people are female. Two people are
1 randomly chosen to be campus representatives. What is
drawing a blue marble is . How many yellow mar- the probability that both representatives are male?
11
bles does he need to add?
6 6
A. 50 A. +
15 15
B. 60
C. 6 6
70 B. ⋅
D. 80 15 15
E. 90 6 5
C. ⋅
15 14
8. At a party with 100 guests, there is a raffle. Each guest 9 8
is given a ticket with a number from 00 to 99. There D. ⋅
15 14
are no repeated numbers. Each guest signs his/her name
on the ticket and drops it in a basket. There is a second 6 5
E. ⋅
basket of tickets numbered identically. A guest wins the 15 15
raffle if his/her ticket is picked from the first basket and
a ticket with the same ones digit is picked from the sec- 11. In a survey conducted at a university, students were
ond basket. For example, if a guest has a ticket number asked to write down the number of campus organiza-
14 and the ticket picked from the first basket is 14 tions they are involved in. The results are shown below.
and the ticket from the second basket is 94, the guest What are the odds of a student at the university being
wins. If Bernie’s ticket number 42 is drawn from the involved in at least 3 organizations?
first basket, what Is the probability that Bernie will not
win the raffle? Distribution of Student Involvement in Campus
Organizations
1
A. # of organizations 1 2
10 0 3 >3
9 % of students 14 27 4
B. 39 16
10
A. 1 : 25
1
C. B. 1 :5
2
C. 1:4
3
D. D. 1 : 20
4 E. 4 : 25
2
E.
3 12. 25% of the dogs at a park are Corgis. There are 28
dogs at the park. How many dogs at the park are not
Corgis?
9. Robin has a fake coin that has a 40% chance of landing
on tails and a 60% chance of landing on heads. In 4 A. 7
coin tosses, what is the probability of getting exactly 3 B. 14
tails?
C. 20
A. .064 D. 21
B. .936 E. 24
C. .216
D. .784
E. .153

144 CHAPTER 10


QUESTIONS PROBABILITY

13. In a Secret Santa gift exchange, there are 3 gift cards, 16. In a list of 60 songs, there are 13 songs by artist A, 24
5 stuffed animals, and 2 articles of clothing. 5 more songs by artist B, 13 songs by artist C, and 10 songs
people want to join the exchange. How many of the 5 by artist D. The first song on the playlist is set to play
people should bring stuffed animals so that the overall on random. What is the probability that the first song
probability of getting a stuffed animal gift is 40% ? played is by artist B?
A. 1 1
B. 2 A.
5
C. 3
13
D. 4 B.
60
E. 5
2
C.
14. Sam rolls a 6 sided die painted with 3 sides yellow, 5
2 sides red, and 1 side white. If Sam rolls the die and 3
records the color of the side facing up repeatedly, how D.
5
many times should Sam expect to record the color red
after 180 rolls? 4
E.
5
A. 30
B. 60 17. In box of 15 pebbles, 4 are white, 6 are black, and
C. 90 5 are gray. If a blindfolded person is asked to pick one
D. 120 pebble out by random, what is the probability of the per-
E. 150 son picking a pebble that is not white?

15. A teacher lines 30 students in a single file line and 11

A.
starts passing out candy at the front of the line. The 15
teacher has 15 lollipops, 10 candy canes, and 5 gum- 9
drops. Lisa is 6th in line to get the candy and the students B.
15
in front of her have received 3 lollipops and 2 candy
canes. What is the probability that Lisa will get a lolli- 6
C.
pop or a gumdrop? 15
5
12 D.
A. 15
25
4
17 E.
B. 15
30
2 18. Two events are independent if the outcome of one event
C.
3 does not affect the outcome of the other event. One of
17 the following statements does NOT describe indepen-
D. dent events. Which one?
25
4 A. An 8 is drawn from a deck of cards, then after re-
E. placing the card, an 8 is drawn.
5
B. An ace card is pulled from a deck of cards, then,
without replacing the card a coin lands tails up.
C. A coin is flipped and lands heads up, then the same
coin is flipped again and lands heads up.
D. A 4 is drawn from a deck of cards, then after re-
placing the card, a 3 is drawn.
E. A 4 is drawn from a deck of cards, then, without
replacing the card, a king is drawn.

CHAPTER 10 145

PROBABILITY QUESTIONS

19. A new version of roulette is played where 2 pockets 21. For the first 7 possible values of x , the table below
are green, 9 are red, 9 are black, 9 are blue, and 9 ( )
gives the probability, P x , that x inches of rain, to
are yellow. If a ball is rolled into one of the pockets at the nearest inch will fall in any given month.
random, what is the probability that it does NOT land in
a blue pocket? x inches of rain P (x )

29 0 0.3102
A.
38 1 0.1020
27 2 0.1567
B.
38 3 0.2021
9 4 0.1166
C.
28 5 0.0621
3
D. 6 0.0503
4
1 Which of the following values is closest to the proba-
E.
4 bility that at least 3 inches of rain will fall in any given
month?
20. A taxi service has 240 taxis in its service. Based on A. 0.11
previous data, the company constructed the table below B. 0.20
showing the percent of taxis in use and the probabilities C. 0.40
of occurring. Based on the probability distribution in the D. 0.43
table, to the nearest whole number, what is the expected E. 0.57
number of taxis that will be in use any given day?
Taxi Rate Usage Probability ( )
22. Let X and Y be independent events. P x represents
0.4 0.3 (
the probability that event X will occur, P ~ x rep- )
resents the probability that event x will not occur, and
0.6 0.4
0.7 0.2
( )
P x ∩ y represents the probability that both events
X and Y will occur. Which of the following equations
0.9 0.1 must be true?
A.
B.
59
60
( ) ( )
A. P x = P y

C. 142 B. P ( x ∩ ~ y ) = P (~ x ∩ y )
D. 144 C. P ( x ) − P (~ x ) =P ( y ) − P (~ y )
E. 156 D. P ( x ∩ y=) P ( ~ x ∩ ~ y )
E. P (x ) ≥ P (x ∩ ~ y )

146 CHAPTER 10


QUESTIONS PROBABILITY

23. A lab is testing a new machine to diagnose breast can-

25. The table below shows the results of a survey of 300
cer. In 50 trials of 800 individuals, the number of
people who were asked whether they liked spicy food
false positives (instances when the machine diagnoses
and whether they liked hiking.
a woman with breast cancer who does not actually have
it) were recorded. Based on the distribution below, what Like spicy Do not like
Total
is the expected number of false positives that will occur food spicy food
among 50,000 tests? Like to hike 75 115 185
Do not like to
Probability that n false posi- 40 75 115
Number, n , of false hike
tives are produced in a trial of
positives Total 110 190 300
800 people
0 0.2 According to the results, which is closest to the prob-
ability that a randomly selected person who was sur-
1 0.4
veyed doesn’t like spicy food given that they don’t like
2 0.15 to hike?
3 0.15 A. 165%
4 0.1 B. 65%
C. 63%
A. 1.55
B. 63 D. 39%
C. 97 E. 38%
D. 124
26. The probability that a specific event, E , happens is de-
E. 500
( )
noted P E . The probability that this event does not
24. The probability distribution of the discrete random vari- ( )
happen is denoted P not E . Which of the following
able Y is shown in the table below. What is closest to statements is always true?
the expected value of Y ?
(
A. P not E > P E) ( )
y P (Y = y )
B. P ( not E ) < P ( E )
P ( not= E ) P (E ) + 1
2
0 C.
9
D. 1 − P (E ) = P ( not E )
1
1
18 E. 0 < P ( not E ) < P ( E )

5 27. Suppose that a will be randomly selected from the set

2
18
{ }
−3, −1,0,1,2 and that b will be randomly selected

3
1 { }
from the set −3, −2,0,1,2,3 . What is the probability
6 that ab < 0?
2
4 1
9 A.
3
1 3
5 B.
18 20
A. 1 13
C.
B. 2 30
C. 2.28 4
D.
D. 3 15
2 1
E. E.
9 15

CHAPTER 10 147

PROBABILITY QUESTIONS

28. Best friends Mylah and Sierra and three other class-
mates have been instructed to stand in a straight line in
a randomly assigned order.What is the probability that
Mylah and Sierra will stand next to each other?
2
A.
5
1
B.
5
1
C.
15
1
D.
30
1
E.
120

148 CHAPTER 10


ANSWERS PROBABILITY

ANSWER KEY
1. A 2. C 3. B 4. D 5. E 6. A 7. C 8. B 9. E 10. C 11. C 12. D 13. A 14. B
15. D 16. C 17. A 18. E 19. A 20. C 21. D 22. E 23. C 24. C 25. B 26. D 27. A 28. A

ANSWER EXPLANATIONS
1. A. We have a total of 10 + 30 + 24 = 64 marbles, 24 of them are orange marbles, and we are looking to find the num-
ber of additional orange marbles to add in order to have a 60% probability of picking an orange marble. Let x be the
number of additional orange marbles needed. Then, we can say that the probability of picking an orange marble after the
24 + x
addition of the x marbles is , because we’ll be adding orange marbles to the orange marbles (numerator) and to
64 + x
the total number of marbles (denominator). We want this to be equal 60% , which equals 0.60 or 6/10, so we set up the
24 + x 6
equation = . Cross-multiplying and distributing gives us 240 + 10x =384 + 6x . Then, subtracting 6x from
64 + x 10
both sides, we get 240 + 4x = 384 . Subtracting 240 from both sides: 4x = 144. Finally, dividing each side by 4 we
find x = 36 . So, we need to add 36 additional orange marbles for there to be a 60% chance of picking an orange marble.

2. C. First, we must find all factors of 18 (integers that 18 can be divided by). (See LCM/GCF Chapter for help with fac-
toring using a factor rainbow). They are 1,2,3,6, 9, and 18 . We see that 18 has 6 factors and all of these numbers are
{ } { }
included in the set 1,2,3,4,....,24 . The set 1,2,3,4,....,24 has 24 numbers, so the probabilty of choosing a factor of
18 from these 24 numbers is 6 = 1 .
24 4
3. B. In order to line the children up from youngest to oldest, we start with the youngest. Since we already know which
children are the two youngest and their ages, we know which one child to place in the first spot, and which one child to
place in the second spot. The same goes for the last spot since we know which child is the oldest. For the remaining spots
3 − 7, we have 5 children left who need to be placed. For spot three there are 5 children who could randomly be placed
there. Once one child is randomly placed in the third spot, there are 4 children left who could be placed in the fourth
spot, and then 3 children for the fifth spot, 2 choices for the sixth spot, and one remaining child at the end who will take
the 7th spot. So, the total possible ways of ordering the middle five children is calculated 1 × 1 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 × 1 = 120.
1
Since only one of these line-ups is the correct order, the probability that the children are ordered correctly is .
120

4. D. We must first list all the prime numbers between 1 and 50. 2,3,5,7,11,13,17,19,23,29,31,37,41,43,47. 15 out of
the 50 integers from 1 to 50 , inclusive, are primes. (Remember, 1 is not prime!) So, the probability of selecting a prime
15 3
number is = . One way to determine if a number is prime is to divide that number by all integers less than or equal
50 10
to its square root, and if the number cannot be divided by any of these integers other than 1 , it is prime. For example,
13 is prime because the square root of 13 is approximately 3.60555, and 13 is not divisible by 3 or 2. See Ch 2 for
more on prime numbers.

5. E. First, we determine that there are 999 − 10 + 1 = 990 integers from 10 through 999 (we add 1 because the set is
inclusive). (Alternatively, we can reason that we take away numbers 1 − 9 from the 999 numbers included in 1 − 999
and that leaves 990 ). Then we count the number of integers that have 3 as exactly two of their digits. If we let x rep-
resent any digit from 0 − 9 excluding 3 then the numbers we want to count can be represented in the following forms:
x 33, 3x 3, and 33x . Since there are 9 possible choices for x (0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) while the other two digits in
our numbers only have one possible choice respectively ( 3 ), the number of possible permutations could be calculated for
each of the forms. x 33 has 1 × 9 × 1 =9 possible outcomes, 3x 3 has 1 × 9 × 1 = 9 possible outcomes, and 33x has
1×1× 9 = 9 possible outcomes. This gives us a total of 9 + 9 + 9 = 27 numbers that satisfy our condition of having 3 as

CHAPTER 10 149

PROBABILITY ANSWERS

2 of its digits. So, the probability of choosing such an integer out of a total of 990 numbers (calculated earlier) is
27 3 .
=
990 110

6. A. To be “not irrational” is the same as to be rational. Since there are 200 integers from 1 to 200 , there are also 200
values from 1 , 2,…, 200 . We must now find the number of values from 1 , 2,…, 200 that are rational. An ra-
n
tional number is a number that can be expressed as a fraction or in the form where n and d are integers. Numbers of
d

the form x are rational only if x is a perfect square. So, since there are 14 numbers from 1 to 200 that are perfect

14 7
( )
squares 1,4,9,16,25,36,49,64,81,100,121,144,169, and 196 , the probability of drawing one is
200
or
100
.

7. C. The box initially only has 7 blue marbles. Let x be the number of yellow marbles we want to add in order for the
1 7 1
probability of drawing a blue marble to be . This means = . Cross-multiplying this equation, we get
11 7 + x 11
77= 7 + x . Subtracting 7 from both sides, we get 70 = x . Accordingly, we need to add 70 yellow marbles in order for
1
the probability of drawing a blue marble to be equal to .
11
8. B. Bernie will not win the raffle if the ticket drawn from the second basket does not end in the same ones digit as 42. So,
if the second ticket does not end with a 2, Bernie will not win. The possible ticket numbers that will not allow Bernie to
( )
win have 10 possible numbers 0 − 9 for the first digit and 9 possible numbers ( 0 − 9 excluding 2 ) for the second
digit (ones place). This gives 10 × 9 = 90 possible outcomes out of a total of 99 − 0 + 1 =100 tickets to choose from for
90 9
Bernie to lose. The probability of choosing such a ticket is = .
100 10
9. E. There are 4 orders for which Robin can get 3 tails out of 4 tosses: TTTH, TTHT, THTT, or HTTT. First we find the
probability of each possible outcome. Each coin toss is an independent “AND” event, so the probability that she will get, for
example, tails in the first toss AND tails in the second toss AND heads in the third toss AND tails in the fourth toss, is found
by multiplying the probability of each independent coin toss. The probability of each of these outcomes is, respectively,
( )( )( )( ) ( )( )( )( ) ( )( )( )( ) ( )( )( )( )
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 , 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 , 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 , and 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 . Now, the probability that
she will get one of the four desired outcomes is an independent “OR” event, the probability that she will get TTTH OR TTHT
OR THTT OR HTTT, so we must sum the individual probabilities we found before. Thus, the total probability of landing
( )( )( )( ) ( )( )( )( ) ( )( )( )( ) ( )( )( )( )
tails 3 out of 4 times is 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 + 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 + 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 + 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 , or
( )( )
3
4 ⋅ 0.4 0.6 . This simplifies to 4 × 0.0384 = 0.154.

10. C. When calculating the probability of choosing two males, we are looking for the probability of selecting one male and
selecting another male from the remaining staff. Thus these are dependent events. The probability of selecting the first
6
male is . Taking out the first selected male, the pool of candidates now consists of 5 males and 9 females, so the
15 5
probability of selecting a second male from the staff not including the first male is . We multiply the two probabilities
14 6 5
to find the probability of both occurrences happening, so the probability that both representatives are male is × .
6 6
15 14
A common mistake made is multiplying × . This is the probability of selecting two males with replacement, which
15 15
means that it is possible to select the same person twice. Since the staff is selecting two different people, they are selecting
without replacement.

11. C. Most students miss this question because they don’t know what “odds” means. Odds are expressed as part to part (ratio)
not as a fraction (part of the whole.) The odds of a student being involved in at least 3 organizations is the percentage
of the student being in 3 or more clubs against the percentage of the student being in 0, 1, or 2. The percentage of a
student being in 3 or more than 3 clubs is 16% + 4% = 20% and the percentage of students in the remaining tallies are
14% + 27% + 39% = 80%. So, the odds are 20 : 80, which reduces to 1 : 4 . Note the word “odds” is rare on the ACT.

150 CHAPTER 10


ANSWERS PROBABILITY

28
12. D. Out of the 28 dogs, 25% or = 7 are Corgis. The number of dogs at the park that are NOT Corgis is 28 − 7 = 21.
4
13. A. Initially, there are a total of 3 + 5 + 2 =10 gifts, and 5 of these gifts are stuffed animals. With the addition of 5 more
gifts, the total number of gifts in the exchange is now 10 + 5 = 15. If we want 40% of those 15 gifts to be stuffed ani-
mals, then 0.4 × 15 = 6 of the gifts must be stuffed animals. We already know that there are 5 stuffed animal gifts from the
original 10 people, so we only need 6 − 5 = 1 out of the 5 people joining to bring a stuffed animal gift.

14. B. To find the expected number of rolls that are red side up, we must first determine the probability of rolling a red. Since
2 1
2 out of the 6 sides are red, the probability of rolling a red is = . The expected number of rolls that are red side up
6 3 1
is then the probability of rolling a red multiplied by the total number of rolls made. Out of the total 180 rolls, of them
1 3
are expected to be red: 180 × = 60 rolls.
3
15. D. This is an “OR” situation so we calculate the independent probabilities and add them together. The teacher started out
with 15 lollipops, 10 candy canes, and 5 gumdrops. At the time the teacher reaches Lisa, there are 15 − 3 = 12 lollipops
left, 10 − 2 =8 candy canes left, and 5 − 0 =5 gumdrops remaining. The total number of candies by the time the teacher
12 8
reaches Lisa is now 30 − 5 = 25 . So the probabilities of getting a lollipop, candy cane, and gumdrop are , , and
25 25

5 12 5 17
respectively. The probability of getting a lollipop or a gumdrop is + =.
25 25 25 25
24 12 6 2
16. C. There are 24 songs out of 60 that are by artist B, so the probability of the first song to be by artist B is = = = .
60 30 15 5
17. A. We wish to find the probability of the pebble being NOT white, which is 1 − (probability of picking a white pebble).
4
The probability of picking a white pebble is , so the probability of picking a picking a pebble that is not white is
4 15 4 11 15
1− = − = .
15 15 15 15

18. E. For each answer choice, the events described are independent except for answer choice E because if a 4 is drawn from
a deck, and without replacement, a king is drawn, then the probability of drawing the king depends on whether or not the
first card drawn from the deck was also a king. All other answer choices describe events that are independent because
each draw made from a deck is replaced, making the next draw not dependent on the previous draw. Each coin toss also
does not depend on the previous toss.

19. A. The probability that an event does not occur is equal to the sum of the probabilities of all other alternative possibilities
added together. However, since we may come across a problem where there are too many alternate events to calculate in
the time we have, it’s better to calculate the probability that an event will not happen as 100%, or 1, minus the probabil-
9
ity that the event will happen. In this case, that is 1 − , since there are 9 chances for the ball to land in blue out of 38
38 9 29 38
possibilities. This gives us − =.
38 38 38
20. C. The expected value is equal to the sum of all possible values, each multiplied by its probability. Our expected taxi
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
usage rate is 0.4 0.3 + 0.6 0.4 + 0.7 0.2 + 0.9 0.1 = 0.59 . We expect the taxi service to be using 59% of its taxis at
any given time. To find the expected number of taxis, not the rate of taxi use, we multiply the number of taxis, 240, by
(
the rate of use: 240 59% )
= 240 0.59 ( )
= 141.6 ≈ 142 .

21. D. Be careful: we need the probability that at least 3 inches of rain will fall. But the chart ONLY lists the first SEVEN
possibilities. Thus we don’t know the probability for more than 6 inches of rain. Our best bet is NOT to try to find the sum
of all probabilities of x ≥ 3 in the chart, because the chart leaves off some values. If you tried this method, you would get
choice C. Instead, find the probability that this WON’T happen and subtract from one. Doing so will account for the miss-
ing chart values. First, take the sum of the probabilities for less than 3 inches of rain. 0.3102 + 0.1020 + 0.1567 =0.5689
Now, subtract that value from one: 1 − 0.5689 = 0.4311 The closest value is answer choice (D). Choice B is incorrect as it

only is for three inches of rain, not all values equal to or greater than three inches.
CHAPTER 10 151

PROBABILITY ANSWERS

22. E. The likelihood of a given event happening is always greater than or equal to the probability of that event happening
alongside a second event (and only equal when the probability of the second event is 100% !) Remember, an upside down
U shape means intersection, or both events have occured. This is the only choice that MUST be true.

23. C. The expected number of false positives in a group of 800 people will be equal to the sum of each number
n of false positives times the probability of each potential outcome in the sample. The expected number in the sample
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
is 0 0.2 + 1 0.4 + 2 0.15 + 3 0.15 + 4 0.1 = 1.55. However, we are looking for the num-
0 + 0.4 + 0.3 + 0.45 + 0.4 =
ber of false positives in a population of 50,000 people, so we can use a proportion to project how many people this
would be given the rate of false positives in the sample. We set false positives in the sample over the total in the sam-
1.55 n
ple equal to false positive in the population ( n ) over the total population: = Cross multiplying, we find
800 50,000
1.55(50,000)
1.55(50,000) = 800n or = n= 96.875 which is ≈ 97 false positives.
800
24. C. The expected value of a variable is the sum of all of its possible values multiplied by their respective probabilities. The
 2   1   5   1   2   1  0 1 10 3 8 5
expected value of Y equals 0   + 1   + 2  + 3  + 4   + 5  = + + + + + ≈ 2.28 . Just
 9   18   18   6   9   18  9 18 18 6 9 18
because our inputs are discrete random variables (i.e. integers) doesn’t mean round our expected value to an integer. The
expected value is a weighted mean or average so should not be rounded to the nearest integer unless specified.
25. B. Since we are given that the person doesn’t like to hike, we can get rid of all of the individuals who do like to hike,
leaving us with a population of 115 . This is our denominator. In this group, 75 people don’t like spicy food, so our prob-
75
ability is ≈ 0.65 =65% .
115
26. D. The probability of an event occurring and the probability of it not occurring must always equal 1, since those are the
only two possible outcomes. Thus we know that= ( ) ( )
1 P E + P not E , which makes 1 − P E = ( ) ( )
P not E also true.

27. A. The probability that ab < 0 is equal to the probability that a < 0 and b > 0 plus the probability that a > 0 and b < 0 .
There are 5 possibilities for a , of which 2 are negative and 2 are positive. There are 6 possibilities for b , of which 2
2 3 6 1
are negative and 3 are positive. The probability that a < 0 and b
>0= × = = . The probability that a > 0 and
5 6 30 5
2 2 4 2 1 2 3 2 5 1
b <0= × = = . Now we add these two probabilities together: + = + = =
5 6 30 15 5 15 15 15 15 3
28. A. Here we’ll use the principles of arrangements. Remember probability is always:
the number of desired outcomes
the number of possible outcomes
In this line, order matters. Three other classmates means FIVE total. We’ll have to manually figure out the numerator but
we can use permutations to figure out the denominator. First calculate the number of possible straight line arrangements:
5 people taken 5 at a time ( 5 P5 ) or: 5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 120. This is our denominator. Now we need to count the number
of desired outcomes for the numerator. Below, 0 denotes other kids and M and S denote Mylah and Sierra:
If Mylah is first and Sierra after her, we have four options: If Sierra is first and Mylah is second, we have four more:
MS000 0MS00 00MS0 000MS SM000 0SM00 00SM0 000SM
We don’t care what position the other kids are in—but we do have to account for them. If there are three other positions
to fill, we have 3 × 2 × 1 options for arranging those three spots—or in other words each of the above “codes” actually
stands for SIX different possibilities. So we need to take the 8 arrangements and multiply each of them by 6 —because
regardless of where the three open slots are—these three slots represent 6 different orientations. That gives us:
8×6
5× 4 × 3× 2× 1
We can cancel the 6, and then reduce by dividing out 4:
8×6 8 2
= =
5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 20 5
This problem is significantly more difficult than the majority of probability problems you’ll find on the ACT®. If you can
do this, you are set!

152 CHAPTER 10
PART THREE:
GEOMETRY
For our formula cheat sheet covering
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