Climate change

Climate change includes both the global

warming driven by human emissions of
greenhouse gases, and the resulting large-
scale shifts in weather patterns.[1] Though
there have been previous periods of climatic
change, since the mid-20th century the rate of
human impact on Earth's climate system and
the global scale of that impact have been
unprecedented.[2]

That human activity has caused climate

change is not disputed by any scientific body
of national or international standing.[3] The
largest driver has been the emission of
greenhouse gases, of which more than 90% Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2019
are carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane. [4] compared to a baseline average from 1951 to
Fossil fuel burning for energy consumption is 1978. Source: NASA.
the main source of these emissions, with
additional contributions from agriculture,
deforestation, and industrial processes.[5] Temperature rise is accelerated or tempered by
climate feedbacks, such as loss of sunlight-reflecting snow and ice cover, increased water
vapour (a greenhouse gas itself), and changes to land and ocean carbon sinks.

Because land surfaces heat faster than ocean surfaces, deserts are expanding and heat waves
and wildfires are more common.[7] Surface temperature rise is greatest in the Arctic, where it
has contributed to melting permafrost, and the retreat of glaciers and sea ice. Increasing
atmospheric energy and rates of evaporation cause more intense storms and weather
extremes, which damage infrastructure and agriculture.[8] Rising temperatures are limiting
ocean productivity and harming fish stocks in most parts of the globe. Current and anticipated
effects from undernutrition, heat stress and disease have led the World Health Organization
to declare climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.
Environmental effects include the extinction or relocation of many species as their ecosystems
change, most immediately in coral reefs, mountains, and the Arctic. Even if efforts to
minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries, including
rising sea levels, rising ocean temperatures, and ocean acidification from elevated levels of
CO2.

Many of these effects are already observed at the current level of warming, which is about
1.1 °C (2.0 °F).[10] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a series
of reports that project significant increases in these impacts as warming continues to 1.5 °C
(2.7 °F) and beyond.[11] Under the Paris
Agreement, nations agreed to keep warming
"well under 2.0 °C (3.6 °F)" by reducing
greenhouse gas emissions. However, under
those pledges, global warming would reach
about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the
century, and current policies will result in
about 3.0 °C (5.4 °F) of warming.[12] Limiting
warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) would require
halving emissions by 2030, then reaching
near-zero levels by 2050.[13]

Mitigation efforts include the research,

development, and deployment of low-carbon Observed temperature from NASA versus the
energy technologies, enhanced energy 1850–1900 average as a pre-industrial baseline.
efficiency, policies to reduce fossil fuel The main driver for increased global temperatures
emissions, reforestation, and forest in the industrial era is human activity, with natural
preservation. Climate engineering techniques, forces adding variability.[6]
most prominently solar radiation
management and carbon dioxide removal,
have substantial limitations and carry large uncertainties. Societies and governments are also
working to adapt to current and future global-warming effects through improved coastline
protection, better disaster management, and the development of more resistant crops.

Contents
Observed temperature rise
Regional variation
Physical drivers of recent climate change
Greenhouse gases
Land surface change
Aerosols and clouds
Natural forcings
Climate change feedback
Future warming and the carbon budget
Effects
Physical environment
Nature and wildlife
Humans
Responses
Mitigation
Adaptation
 Climate engineering
Society and culture
Political response
Scientific consensus
The public
Discovery
Terminology
See also
Notes
Sources
IPCC reports
Other peer-reviewed sources
Books, reports and legal documents
Non-technical sources
External links

Observed temperature rise

Multiple independently produced
instrumental datasets show that the climate
system is warming,[16] with the 2009–2018
decade being 0.93 ± 0.07 °C (1.67 ± 0.13 °F)
warmer than the pre-industrial baseline
(1850–1900).[17] Currently, surface
temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C
(0.36 °F) per decade.[18] Since 1950, the
number of cold days and nights has decreased,
and the number of warm days and nights has
increased.[19] Historical patterns of warming
and cooling, like the Medieval Climate
Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, were not as Global surface temperature reconstruction over
synchronous across regions as current the last millennia using proxy data from tree rings,
warming, but may have reached temperatures corals, and ice cores in blue.[14] Observational
as high as those of the late-20th century in a data is from 1880 to 2019.[15]
limited set of regions.[20] There have been
prehistorical episodes of global warming, such
as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.[21] However, the observed rise in temperature
and CO2 concentrations has been so rapid that even abrupt geophysical events that took place
in Earth's history do not approach current rates.[22]
Climate proxy records show that natural
variations offset the early effects of the
Industrial Revolution, so there was little net
warming between the 18th century and the
mid-19th century.[23] The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted
the baseline reference period 1850–1900 as an
approximation of pre-industrial global mean
surface temperature,[23] when thermometer
records began to provide global coverage.[24]

While the common measure of global

warming is near-surface atmospheric NASA data[15] shows that land surface
temperature changes, those measurements are temperatures have increased faster than ocean
reinforced with a wide range of other types of temperatures.
observations. [25] There has been an increase
in the frequency and intensity of heavy
precipitation, melting of snow and land ice, and increased atmospheric humidity.[26] Flora
and fauna are also behaving in a manner consistent with warming; for instance, plants are
flowering earlier in spring.[27] Another key indicator is the cooling of the upper atmosphere,
which demonstrates that greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface and
preventing it from radiating into space.[28]

Although record-breaking years attract considerable media attention, individual years are less
significant than the longer global temperature trend.[29] An example of a shorter episode is
the slower rate of surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, which was labeled the
"global warming hiatus".[30] Throughout this period, ocean heat storage continued to
progress steadily upwards, and in subsequent years, surface temperatures have spiked
upwards. The slower pace of warming can be attributed to a combination of natural
fluctuations, reduced solar activity, and increased reflection of sunlight by particles from
volcanic eruptions.[31]

Regional variation

Global warming refers to global averages, with the amount of warming varying by region.
Patterns of warming are independent of the locations of greenhouse gas emissions, because
the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet; however, localized black carbon
deposits on snow and ice do contribute to Arctic warming.[32]

Since the pre-industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice
as fast as global average surface temperatures.[33] This is because of the larger heat capacity of
oceans, and because oceans lose more heat by evaporation.[34] Over 90% of the additional
energy in the climate system over the last 50 years has been stored in the ocean, warming
it.[35] The remainder of the additional energy has melted ice and warmed the continents and
the atmosphere.[36] The ocean heat uptake drives thermal expansion which has contributed to
observed sea level rise.[37]
The Northern Hemisphere and North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and
Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also
more snow area and sea ice, because of how the land masses are arranged around the Arctic
Ocean. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has
melted, they start absorbing more heat. The Southern Hemisphere already had little sea ice in
summer before it started warming.[38] Arctic temperatures have increased and are predicted
to continue to increase during this century at over twice the rate of the rest of the world.[39]
Melting of glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic disrupts ocean circulation, including a
weakened Gulf Stream, causing increased warming in some areas.[40]

Physical drivers of recent climate change

By itself, the climate system experiences
various cycles which can last for years (such as
the El Niño–Southern Oscillation) to decades
or centuries.[41] Other changes are caused by
an imbalance of energy that is "external" to
the climate system, but not always external to
the Earth.[42] Examples of external forcings
include changes in the composition of the
atmosphere (e.g. increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic
eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit
around the Sun.[43]

Attribution of climate change is the effort to

Radiative forcing of different contributors to
scientifically show which mechanisms are climate change in 2011, as reported in the fifth
responsible for observed changes in Earth's IPCC assessment report.
climate. To determine anthropogenic
attribution, known internal climate variability
and natural external forcings need to be ruled out. Therefore, a key approach is to use
computer modelling of the climate system to determine unique "fingerprints" for all potential
causes. By comparing these fingerprints with observed patterns and evolution of climate
change, and the observed history of the forcings, the causes of the observed changes can be
determined.[44] For example, solar forcing can be ruled out as major cause because its
fingerprint is warming in the entire atmosphere, and only the lower atmosphere has warmed,
which is what is expected from greenhouse gases (which trap heat energy radiating from the
surface).[45] Attribution of recent climate change shows that the primary cause is greenhouse
gases, and secondarily land-use changes, and aerosols and soot.[46]

Greenhouse gases

The Earth absorbs sunlight, then radiates it as heat. Some of this infrared radiation is
absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and because they re-emit it in all directions
part of the heat is trapped on Earth instead of escaping into space.[47] Before the Industrial
 Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of
greenhouse gases caused the air near the
surface to be about 33 °C (59 °F) warmer than
it would have been in their absence.[48]
Without the Earth's atmosphere, the Earth's
average temperature would be well below the
freezing point of water.[49] While water
vapour (~50%) and clouds (~25%) are the
biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect,
they increase as a function of temperature and
are therefore considered feedbacks. On the
CO2 concentrations over the last 800,000 years
other hand, concentrations of gases such as
as measured from ice cores (blue/green) and CO2 (~20%), ozone and nitrous oxide are not
directly (black) temperature-dependent, and are hence
considered external forcings.[50] Ozone acts as
a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the
atmosphere, the troposphere (as opposed to the stratospheric ozone layer). Furthermore,
ozone is highly reactive and interacts with other greenhouse gases and aerosols.[51]

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels
(coal, oil, and natural gas),[52] has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. These increases in levels of gases such as CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone,
CFCs, and nitrous oxide have increased radiative forcing. In 2018, the concentrations of CO2
and methane had increased by about 45% and 160%, respectively, since 1750.[53] In 2013, CO2
readings taken at the world's primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassed 400 ppm for
the first time (normal pre-industrial levels were ~270ppm).[54] These CO2 levels are much
higher than they have been at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which
reliable data have been collected from air trapped in ice cores.[55] Less direct geological
evidence indicates that CO2 values have not been this high for millions of years.[56]

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas

emissions in 2018, excluding those from land
use change, were equivalent to 52 billion
tonnes of CO2. Of these emissions, 72% was
CO2, 19% was methane, 6% was nitrous oxide,
and 3% was fluorinated gases.[57] CO2
emissions primarily come from burning fossil
fuels to provide useable light and heat energy
for transport, manufacturing, heating, and
grid electricity.[58] Additional CO2 emissions
come from deforestation and industrial The Global Carbon Project shows how additions
processes, i.e., the chemical reactions for to CO2 since 1880 have been caused by different
making cement, steel, aluminum, and sources ramping up one after another.
fertilizer.[59] Methane emissions come from
livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills, wastewater, coal mining, as well as oil and gas
extraction.[60] Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of
inorganic and organic fertilizer.[61]

From a consumption standpoint, the dominant sources of global 2010 emissions were: food
and human waste (34%), thermal comfort, washing, and lighting (26%); freight, travel,
commuting, and communication (25%); and building construction (15%). These emissions
take into account the embodied fossil fuel energy in manufacturing materials including metals
(e.g. steel, aluminum), concrete, glass, and plastic, which are largely used in buildings,
infrastructure, and transportation.[62] From a production standpoint, the primary sources of
global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated as: electricity and heat (25%), agriculture and
forestry (24%), industry and manufacturing (21%), transport (14%), and buildings (6%).[63]

Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's land
surface, particularly its forests, remain a significant carbon sink for CO2. Natural processes,
such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, more than offset the greenhouse gas
contributions from deforestation. The land-surface sink is estimated to remove about
11 billion tonnes of CO2 annually from the atmosphere, or about 29% of global CO2
emissions.[64] The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step process. First,
CO2 dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's overturning circulation distributes
it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of the carbon cycle
(changing the ocean's chemistry). Over the last two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed
20 to 30% of emitted CO2.[65] The strength of both the land and ocean sinks increases as CO2
levels in the atmosphere rise. In this respect they act as suppressing feedbacks in global
warming.[66]

Land surface change

Humans change the Earth's surface mainly to create more agricultural land. Today,
agriculture takes up 34% of Earth's land area, while 26% is forests, and 30% is uninhabitable
(glaciers, deserts, etc.).[67] The amount of forested land continues to decrease, largely due to
conversion to cropland in the tropics.[68] This deforestation is the most significant aspect of
land surface change affecting global warming. The main causes of deforestation are:
permanent land-use change from forest to agricultural land producing products such as beef
and palm oil (27%), logging to produce forestry/forest products (26%), short term shifting
cultivation (24%), and wildfires (23%).[69]

In addition to affecting greenhouse gas concentrations, land-use changes affect global

warming through a variety of other chemical and physical mechanisms. Changing the type of
vegetation in a region affects the local temperature, by changing how much of the sunlight
gets reflected back into space (albedo), and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For
instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to
reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also contribute to changing temperatures by affecting
the release of aerosols and other chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing
wind patterns (when the land surface presents different obstructions to wind).[70] In tropic
and temperate areas the net effect is to produce a significant warming, while at latitudes
closer to the poles a gain of albedo (as forest is replaced by snow cover) leads to an overall
cooling effect.[70] Globally, these effects are estimated to have led to a slight cooling,
dominated by an increase in surface albedo.[71]

Aerosols and clouds

Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, not only puts a large

burden on human health, but also affects the climate on a
large scale.[72] From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in
the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was
observed, a phenomenon popularly known as global
dimming,[73] typically attributed to aerosols from biofuel
and fossil fuel burning.[74] Aerosol removal by
precipitation gives tropospheric aerosols an atmospheric
lifetime of only about a week, while stratospheric aerosols
can remain in the atmosphere for a few years.[75]
Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990, Ship tracks can be seen as lines in
meaning that they no longer mask global warming as these clouds over the Atlantic
Ocean on the East Coast of the
much.[76]
United States as an effect of
In addition to their direct effects (scattering and aerosols.
absorbing solar radiation), aerosols have indirect effects
on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as
cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets.
These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger
droplets.[77] This effect also causes droplets to be more uniform in size, which reduces the
growth of raindrops and makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.[78] Indirect
effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[79]

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that
falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the
absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.[80] Limiting new black
carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.[81]

Natural forcings

As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect
the climate system.[82] Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites,[83] and
indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s.[82] There has been no upward
trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, so it cannot be responsible for the
current warming.[84] Explosive volcanic eruptions represent the largest natural forcing over
the industrial era. When the eruption is sufficiently strong (with sulfur dioxide reaching the
stratosphere) sunlight can be partially blocked for a couple of years, with a temperature signal
lasting about twice as long. In the industrial era, volcanic activity has had negligible impacts
on global temperature change trends.[85]

Physical climate models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent
decades when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity.[86]
Further evidence for greenhouse gases being the cause of recent climate change come from
measurements showing the warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), coupled with
the cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere).[87] If solar variations were
responsible for the observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and the stratosphere
would be expected, but that has not been the case.[45]

Climate change feedback

The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is
modified by feedbacks: increased by self-reinforcing
feedbacks and reduced by balancing feedbacks.[89] The
main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour
feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and probably the net
effect of clouds (described below).[90] The primary
balancing feedback to global temperature change is
radiative cooling to space as infrared radiation in
response to rising surface temperature.[91] Uncertainty Sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of
over feedbacks is the major reason why different climate incoming solar radiation while the
models project different magnitudes of warming for a dark ocean surface only reflects 6
percent, so melting sea ice is a
given amount of emissions.[92]
positive feedback.[88]
As air gets warmer, it can hold more moisture. After an
initial warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases, the
atmosphere will hold more water. As water is a potent greenhouse gas, this further heats the
climate: the water-vapour feedback.[90] If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be
reflected back into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become more high and thin, then
clouds can act more as an insulator, reflecting heat from below back downwards and warming
the planet.[93] Overall, the net cloud feedback over the industrial era has probably
exacerbated temperature rise.[94]

The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic reduces the albedo of the Earth's
surface.[95] More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to Arctic
amplification, which has caused Arctic temperatures to increase at more than twice the rate of
the rest of the world;[96] this is the ice-albedo feedback. Arctic amplification is also melting
permafrost, which releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere as another positive
feedback.[97]

Roughly half of each year's CO2 emissions have been absorbed by plants on land and in
oceans.[98] CO2 and an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth, making the
land carbon cycle a balancing feedback. Climate change also increases droughts and heat
waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain that this balancing feedback will
persist in the future.[99] Soils contain large quantities of carbon and may release some when
they heat up.[100] As more CO2 and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it acidifies, its circulation
changes and phytoplankton takes up less carbon, decreasing the rate at which the ocean
absorbs atmospheric carbon.[101] Climate change can also increase methane emissions from
wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, and permafrost.[102]

Future warming and the carbon budget

Future warming depends on the strengths of
climate feedbacks and on emissions of
greenhouse gases.[103] The former are often
estimated using climate models. A climate
model is a representation of the physical,
chemical, and biological processes that affect
the climate system.[104] Models also include
changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes
in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.[105]
Computer models attempt to reproduce and
predict the circulation of the oceans, the
annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of
carbon between the land surface and the
atmosphere.[106] There are more than two
dozen scientific institutions that develop
major climate models.[107] Models project
different future temperature rises for given CMIP5 average of climate model projections for
emissions of greenhouse gases; they also do 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, under low and
high emission scenarios.
not fully agree on the strength of different
feedbacks on climate sensitivity and
magnitude of inertia of the climate
system.[108]

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary
or past climates.[109] Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage[110] and
underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.[111] Sea level rise since 1990 was
underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.[112] The 2017 United
States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be
underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".[113]

Four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as input for climate models: "a
stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and
one scenario with very high [greenhouse gas] emissions (RCP8.5)".[114] RCPs only look at
concentrations of greenhouse gases, and so does not include the response of the carbon
cycle.[115] Climate model projections summarized in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
indicate that, during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further
0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F)
 in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate
of future greenhouse gas emissions and on
climate feedback effects.[116]

A subset of climate models add societal factors

to a simple physical climate model. These
models simulate how population, economic
growth, and energy use affect—and interact
with—the physical climate. With this
information, these models can produce
scenarios of how greenhouse gas emissions
The four RCPs, including CO2 and all forcing may vary in the future. This output is then
agents' atmospheric CO2-equivalents. used as input for physical climate models to
generate climate change projections.[117] In
some scenarios emissions continue to rise over
the century, while others have reduced emissions.[118] Fossil fuel resources are too abundant
for shortages to be relied on to limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[119] Emissions
scenarios can be combined with modelling of the carbon cycle to predict how atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future.[120] According to these
combined models, by 2100 the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could be as low as 380 or as
high as 1400 ppm, depending on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and the mitigation
scenario.[121]

The remaining carbon emissions budget is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and the
climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases.[122] According to the IPCC, global warming can be
kept below 1.5 °C with a two-thirds chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570
gigatonnes of CO2 depending on the choice of the measure of global temperature. This
amount corresponds to 10 to 13 years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about
the budget; for instance, it may be 100 gigatonnes of CO2 smaller due to methane release from
permafrost and wetlands.[123]

Effects

Physical environment

The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, effecting oceans, ice,
and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from
studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations.[125]

Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing
frequency.[126] Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in
India and East Asia.[127] Various mechanisms have been identified that might explain extreme
weather in mid-latitudes from the rapidly warming Arctic, such as the jet stream becoming
more erratic.[128] The maximum rainfall and wind speed from hurricanes and typhoons is
likely increasing.[129]
Global sea level is rising as a consequence of
glacial melt, melt of the ice sheets in
Greenland and Antarctica, and thermal
expansion. Between 1993 and 2017, the rise
increased over time, averaging 3.1 ± 0.3 mm
per year.[130] Over the 21st century, the IPCC
projects that in a very high emissions scenario
the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.[131]
Increased ocean warmth is undermining and
threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier
outlets, risking a large melt of the ice
sheet[132] and the possibility of a 2 meter sea
level rise by 2100 under high emissions.[133] Historical sea level reconstruction and projections
up to 2100 published in January 2017 by the U.S.
Climate change has led to decades of shrinking
Global Change Research Program.[124]
and thinning of the Arctic sea ice, making it
vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies.[134]
Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary.[135] While ice-free summers are expected to be
rare at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at
a warming level of 2.0 °C (3.6 °F),[136] increasing ice–albedo feedback.[137]

Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations have also led to changes in ocean chemistry. An
increase in dissolved CO2 is causing ocean acidification, harming corals and shellfish in
particular.[138] In addition, oxygen levels are decreasing as oxygen is less soluble in warmer
water,[139] with hypoxic dead zones expanding as a result of algal blooms stimulated by higher
temperatures, higher CO2 levels, ocean deoxygenation, and eutrophication.[140]

Tipping points and long-term impacts

The greater the amount of global warming, the greater the risk of passing through ‘tipping
points’, thresholds beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if
temperatures are reduced.[141] An example is the collapse of West Antarctic and Greenland ice
sheets, where a certain temperature rise commits an ice sheet to melt, although the time scale
required is uncertain and depends on future warming.[142] Some large-scale changes could
occur over a short time period, such as a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation,[143] which would trigger major climate changes in the North Atlantic, Europe,
and North America.[144]

The long-term effects of climate change include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level
rise, and ocean acidification. On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of
climate change will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[145] This is due
to CO2's long atmospheric lifetime.[145] Oceanic CO2 uptake is slow enough that ocean
acidification will continue for hundreds to thousands of years.[146] These emissions are
estimated to have prolonged the current interglacial period by at least 100,000 years.[147]
Because the great mass of glaciers and ice caps depressed the Earth's crust, another long-term
effect of ice melt and deglaciation is the gradual rising of landmasses, a process called post-
glacial rebound.[148] Sea level rise will continue over many centuries, with an estimated rise
of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years.[149]

Nature and wildlife

Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards
higher altitudes.[150] Higher atmospheric CO2 levels and an extended growing season have
resulted in global greening, whereas heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem
productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.[151]
Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion
of deserts in the subtropics.[152] Without substantial actions to reduce the rate of climate
change, land-based ecosystems risk major shifts in their composition and structure.[153]
Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and
reduced diversity of ecosystems.[154]

The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have
migrated towards the colder poles as fast as or faster than species on land.[155] Just as on
land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, with harmful
effects found on a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp, and seabirds.[156] Ocean
acidification threatens damage to coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural
resources of value to society.[157] Hypoxic ocean dead zones driven by climate change and
eutrophication cause water discolouration and foam accumulation, anoxia, contamination of
seafood with toxins, disruption of food webs and massive large-scale mortality of marine
biota.[158] Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress, with almost half of wetlands having
disappeared as a consequence of climate change and other human impacts.

Climate change impacts on the environment

Ecological collapse possibilities. Extreme weather. Drought and high
Bleaching has damaged the Great temperatures worsened the 2020
Barrier Reef and threatens reefs bushfires in Australia.[160]
worldwide.[159]

Habitat destruction. Many arctic

animals rely on sea ice, which
Arctic warming. Permafrost thaws has been disappearing in a
undermine infrastructure and release warming Arctic.[161]
methane in a positive feedback loop.[97]

Pest propagation. Mild

winters allow more pine
beetles to survive to kill large
swaths of forest.[162]
Humans

The effects of climate change on humans, mostly due to warming and shifts in precipitation,
have been detected worldwide. Regional impacts of climate change are now observable on all
continents and across ocean regions,[163] with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the
greatest risk.[164] The Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian megadeltas are likely to be
especially affected by future climate change.[165]

The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified human health impacts from climate
change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.[166] Some of the human
impacts include both the direct effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of
life,[167] as well as indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures [168] The
World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate
change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from
malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress.[169] Various infectious diseases are more
easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as dengue fever, which affects children most
severely, and malaria.[170] Young children are the most vulnerable to food shortages, and
together with older people, to extreme heat.[171] Decreased air pollution (largely from coal-
fired power plants) that would result from limiting global warming to 1.5 °C (or 2 °C without
negative emissions) could prevent an estimated 153 million premature deaths worldwide over
the remainder of 21st century, compared to base 2°C scenario with negative emissions.[172]

Between 1981 and 2010 climate change decreased global mean yields of maize, wheat, and
soybeans by 4.1, 1.8 and 4.5%, respectively, relative to preindustrial climate.[173] Increased
global temperatures relative to late 20th century levels pose further risks to global and
regional food security.[174] Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low-
latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[175] Each
degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature could, on average, reduce global yields of
wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%.[176] Up to an additional
183 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of hunger as a
consequence of these impacts.[177] Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are
already dry, and small islands are also at increased risk of water stress due to climate
change.[178]

The effects of warming on ocean productivity have already impacted the growth,
reproduction, and survival of fish stocks globally. Recent analyses of worldwide stocks suggest
that the maximum catch potential has decreased by over 4% since 1930, although there is
significant geographic variability in this trend, with polar stocks showing an increase.[179]
Even under more optimistic climate change scenarios, global catch potential is projected to
further decline 4-8% by mid century, with growth in the Arctic Ocean being the
exception.[180]

Climate change has likely already increased global economic inequality, and is projected to
continue doing so.[181] Most of the severe impacts are expected in sub-Saharan Africa and
South-East Asia, where existing poverty is already exacerbated.[182] The World Bank
estimates that climate change could drive over 120 million people into poverty by 2030. [183]
Current inequalities between men and women, between rich and poor, and between different
ethnicities have been observed to worsen as a consequence of climate variability and climate
change.[184]

In small islands and mega deltas, flooding from sea level rise is expected to threaten
infrastructure and human settlements.[185] This could lead to statelessness for populations in
island nations, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu.[186] In some regions, rise in temperature and
humidity may also be too severe for humans to adapt to.[187] In the next 50 years, 1 to 3 billion
people are projected to be left outside the historically favourable climate conditions.[188]
These factors, plus weather extremes, can drive environmental migration, both within and
between countries.[189]

Economic losses due to climate change could be between 126.68 and 616.12 trillion dollars
until 2100 with current commitments, compared to 1.5°C or well below 2°C compatible action
action. Failure to implement current commitments raises economic losses to 149.78–791.98
trillion dollars until 2100.[190]

Climate change impacts on people

Environmental migration. Sparser Agricultural changes. Droughts, rising
rainfall leads to desertification that temperatures, and extreme weather
harms agriculture and can displace negatively impact agriculture. Shown:
populations. Show: Telly, Mali.[191] Texas, USA.[192]

Storm intensification. Bangladesh

Tidal flooding. Sea-level rise after Cyclone Sidr is an example
increases flooding in low-lying of catastrophic flooding from
[194]
coastal regions. Shown: Venice, increased rainfall.
Italy.[193]
 Heat wave
intensification. Events
like the June 2019
European heat wave
are becoming more
common.[195]

Responses
The two conventional responses are mitigation (preventing as much additional warming as
possible by reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (adjusting society to
compensate for unavoidable warming). Many of the countries that have contributed least to
global greenhouse gas emissions are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which
raises questions about justice and fairness with regard to mitigation and adaptation.[196]

A third option is climate engineering, which refers to direct interventions in the Earth's
climate system.[197] The most prominent climate engineering techniques include the direct air
capture and sequestration of CO2; and solar radiation management, in which sunlight is
reflected to counteract the warming effect of greenhouse gases.

These responses are not mutually exclusive, for instance, to increase chances of successful
adaptation, as much additional warming as possible needs to be prevented. Or, to increase
chances of successful carbon dioxide removal, emissions need to be brought as close to zero as
possible.

Mitigation

The IPCC has stressed the need to keep global warming below 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) compared to pre-
industrial levels in order to avoid some irreversible impacts.[11] Climate change impacts can
be mitigated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by enhancing the capacity of Earth's
surface to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.[198] In order to limit global
warming to less than 1.5 °C with a high likelihood of success, the IPCC estimates that global
greenhouse gas emissions will need to be net zero by 2050,[199] or by 2070 with a 2 °C target.
This will require far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land,
cities, transport, buildings, and industry.[200]
To make progress towards that goal, the
United Nations Environment Programme
estimates that, within the next decade,
countries will need to triple the amount of
reductions they have committed to in their
current Paris Agreements.[201]

Technologies and other methods

Key factors to reducing greenhouse gas

emissions in all long-term scenarios include
rapid and significant investment in renewable The Climate Change Performance Index ranks
countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of
energy, nuclear energy, and energy
[203] score), renewable energy (20%), energy use
efficiency. These technologies include
(20%), and climate policy (20%).
solar and wind power, bioenergy, geothermal
energy, and hydropower. Combined, they are
capable of supplying several times the world's
current energy needs.[204] Photovoltaic solar
and wind, in particular, have seen substantial
growth and progress over the last few years,
such that they are currently among the
cheapest sources of new power
generation.[205] Renewables represented 75%
of all new electricity generation installed in
2019, with solar and wind constituting nearly
all of that amount.[206] However, fossil fuels
continue to dominate world energy supplies.
In 2018, fossil fuels produced 80% of the
world's energy, with modern renewable
sources, including solar and wind power,
Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary
accounting for around 11%.[207]
global energy sources even as renewables have
There are obstacles to the rapid development begun rapidly increasing.[202]
of renewable energy. Environmental and land
use concerns are sometimes associated with
large solar, wind and hydropower projects.[208] Solar and wind power also require energy
storage systems and other modifications to the electricity grid to operate effectively,[203]
although several storage technologies are now emerging to supplement the traditional use of
pumped-storage hydropower.[209] The use of rare-earth metals and other hazardous materials
has also been raised as a concern with solar power.[210] The use of bioenergy is often not
carbon neutral, and may have negative consequences for food security,[211] largely due to the
amount of land required compared to other renewable energy options.[212]
Where energy production or CO2-intensive heavy industries continue to produce waste CO2,
the gas can be captured and stored instead of being released to the atmosphere. Although
costly,[213] carbon capture and storage (CCS) may be able to play a significant role in limiting
CO2 emissions by mid-century.[214] Earth's natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester
significantly larger amounts of CO2 beyond naturally occurring levels.[215] Forest
preservation, reforestation and tree planting on non-forest lands are considered the most
effective, although they raise food security concerns. Soil management on croplands and
grasslands is another effective mitigation technique.[216] As models disagree on the feasibility
of land-based negative emissions methods for mitigation, strategies based on them are
risky.[217]

Individuals can also take actions to reduce their carbon footprint. These include: driving an
electric or other energy efficient car, reducing vehicles miles by using mass transit or cycling,
adopting a plant-based diet, reducing energy use in the home, limiting consumption of goods
and services, and foregoing air travel.[218]

Scenarios and strategies for 2050

Although there is no single pathway to limit

global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C,[219] most
scenarios and strategies see a major increase
in the use of renewable energy in combination
with increased energy efficiency measures to
generate the needed greenhouse gas
reductions.[220] To reduce pressures on
ecosystems and enhance their carbon
sequestration capabilities, changes would also
be necessary in forestry and agriculture.[221]
Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C
generally project the large scale use of CO2
removal methods to augment the greenhouse
Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions. If gas reduction approaches mentioned
all countries achieve their current Paris above. [222]
Agreement pledges, average warming by 2100
will go far beyond the target of the Paris Renewable energy would become the
Agreement to keep warming "well below 2°C". dominant form of electricity generation, rising
to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios.
The use of electricity for other needs, such as
heating, would rise to the point where electricity becomes the largest form of overall energy
supply by 2050.[223] Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out
by 2050.[224]

In transport, scenarios envision sharp increases in the market share of electric vehicles, low
carbon fuel substitution for other transportation modes like shipping, and changes in
transportation patterns to reduce overall demand, for example increased public
transport.[225] Buildings will see additional electrification with the use of technologies like
heat pumps, as well as continued energy efficiency improvements achieved via low energy
building codes.[226] Industrial efforts will focus on increasing the energy efficiency of
production processes, such as the use of cleaner technology for cement production,[227]
designing and creating less energy intensive products, increasing product lifetimes, and
developing incentives to reduce product demand.[228]

The agriculture and forestry sector faces a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas
emissions, preventing further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases
in world food demand.[229] A suite of actions could reduce agriculture/forestry based
greenhouse gas emissions by 66% from 2010 levels by reducing growth in demand for food
and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests,
and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.[230]

Policies and measures

A wide range of policies, regulations and laws

are being used to reduce greenhouse gases.
Carbon pricing mechanisms include carbon
taxes and emissions trading systems.[231] As of
2019, carbon pricing covers about 20% of
global greenhouse gas emissions.[232]
Renewable portfolio standards have been
enacted in several countries requiring utilities
to increase the percentage of electricity they
generate from renewable sources.[233] Phasing
out of fossil fuel subsidies, currently estimated
at $300 billion globally (about twice the level
of renewable energy subsidies),[234] could Economic sectors with more greenhouse gas
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6%.[235] contributions have a greater stake in climate
Subsidies could also be redirected to support change policies.
the transition to clean energy.[236] More
prescriptive methods that can reduce
greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air
pollution regulations on heavy industry.[237]

As the use of fossil fuels is reduced, there are Just Transition considerations involving the
social and economic challenges that arise. An example is the employment of workers in the
affected industries, along with the well-being of the broader communities involved.[238]
Climate justice considerations, such as those facing indigenous populations in the Arctic,[239]
are another important aspect of mitigation policies.[240]

Adaptation
Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its
effects". As climate change effects vary across regions, so do adaptation strategies.[241] While
some adaptation responses call for trade-offs, others bring synergies and co-benefits.[242]
Increased use of air conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but also increases
energy demand.[243] Other examples of adaptation include improved coastline protection,
better disaster management, and the development of more resistant crops.[244]

Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since they are predicted to bear the
brunt of the effects of climate change.[245] The capacity and potential for humans to adapt,
called adaptive capacity, is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations,
and developing countries generally have less.[246] There are limits to adaptation and more
severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively
expensive.[241] The public sector, private sector, and communities are all gaining experience
with adaptation, and adaptation is becoming embedded within their planning processes.[247]

Climate engineering

Geoengineering or climate engineering is the deliberate large-scale modification of the

climate, considered a potential future method for counteracting climate change.[248]
Techniques fall generally into the categories of solar radiation management and carbon
dioxide removal, although various other schemes have been suggested. A 2018 review paper
concluded that although geoengineering is physically possible, all the techniques are in early
stages of development, carry large risks and uncertainties and raise significant ethical and
legal issues.[249]

Society and culture

Political response

The geopolitics of climate change is complex

and has often been framed as a free-rider
problem, in which all countries benefit from
mitigation done by other countries, but
individual countries would lose from investing
in a transition to a low-carbon economy
themselves. However, net importers of fossil
fuels win economically from transitioning,
causing net exporters to face stranded assets:
fossil fuels they cannot sell, if they choose not
to transition.[251] Furthermore, the benefits in
terms of public health and local Since 2000, rising CO2 emissions in China and
environmental improvements of coal phase the rest of world have eclipsed the output of the
out exceed the costs in almost all regions, United States and Europe.[250]
potentially further eliminating the free-rider
problem.[252] The geopolitics are further
complicated by the supply chain of rare earth
metals necessary to produce many clean
technologies.[253]

United Nations Framework Convention

Nearly all countries in the world are parties to

the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC).[254] The objective
of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous
human interference with the climate Per person, the United States generates CO2 at a
system.[255] As stated in the convention, this far faster rate than other primary regions.[250]
requires that greenhouse gas concentrations
are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level
where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened,
and economic development can be sustained.[256] Global emissions have risen since signing of
the UNFCCC, as it does not actually restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for
protocols that do.[63] Its yearly conferences are the stage of global negotiations.[257]

This mandate was sustained in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC.[258] In ratifying the
Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their
emissions. These first-round commitments expired in 2012.[259] United States President
George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including
major population centres such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious
harm to the US economy".[260] During these negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the
United Nations representing developing countries)[261] pushed for a mandate requiring
developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions.[262] This was justified on
the basis that developed countries' emissions had contributed most to the accumulation of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, per-capita emissions were still relatively low in
developing countries, and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their
development needs.[263]

In 2009 a group of UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord,[264] which has been
widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and has been rejected by poorer
nations including the G77.[265] Nations associated with the Accord aimed to limit the future
increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[266]

In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming
well below 2 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under 1.5 °C. The
agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in
the Paris Agreement. Instead, the procedure of regularly setting ever more ambitious goals
and reevaluating these goals every five years has been made binding.[267] The Paris
Agreement reiterated that developing countries must be financially supported.[268] As of
November 2019, 194 states and the European Union have signed the treaty and 186 states and
the EU have ratified or acceded to the agreement.[269] In November 2019 the Trump
administration notified the UN that it would withdraw the United States from the Paris
Agreement in 2020.[270]

The importance of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is

underlined by Target 13.a of the Sustainable Development Goal 13 ("Take urgent action to
combat climate change and its impacts"), one of 17 global goals to be achieved by 2030. Target
13.a is (short version): "Implement the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change".[271]
The long version of Target 13.a is: "Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-
country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of
mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of
developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on
implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as
soon as possible."[272]

Other policy

In 2019, the British Parliament became the first national government in the world to officially
declare a climate emergency.[273] Other countries and jurisdictions followed suit.[274] In
November 2019 the European Parliament declared a "climate and environmental
emergency",[275] and the European Commission presented its European Green Deal with the
goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.[276]

While ozone depletion and global warming are considered separate problems, the solution to
the former has significantly mitigated global warming. The greenhouse gas emission
mitigation of the Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to stop emitting ozone-
depleting gases, is estimated to have been more effective than that of the Kyoto Protocol,
which was specifically designed to curb greenhouse gas emissions.[277] It has been argued that
the Montreal Protocol may have done more than any other measure, as of 2017, to mitigate
global warming as those substances were also powerful greenhouse gases.[278]

Scientific consensus

There is an overwhelming scientific consensus that global surface temperatures have

increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions
of greenhouse gases.[280] No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees
with this view.[281] Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed,
which scientists subject to assessment every couple of years in the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change reports.[282] In 2013, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report stated that "is
extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming
since the mid-20th century".[283] Their 2018 report expressed the scientific consensus as:
"human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the
mid-20th century".[284]
Consensus has further developed that some
form of action should be taken to protect
people against the impacts of climate change,
and national science academies have called on
world leaders to cut global emissions.[285] In
2017, in the second warning to humanity,
15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated
that "the current trajectory of potentially
catastrophic climate change due to rising
greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels,
deforestation, and agricultural production –
particularly from farming ruminants for meat
consumption" is "especially troubling".[286] In While there is little debate that excess carbon
2019, a group of more than 11,000 scientists dioxide in the industrial era has mostly come from
from 153 countries named climate change an burning fossil fuels, the future strength of land and
"emergency" that would lead to "untold ocean carbon sinks is an area of study.[279]
human suffering" if no big shifts in action take
place.[287] The emergency declaration
emphasized that economic growth and population growth "are among the most important
drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion" and that "we need bold and
drastic transformations regarding economic and population policies".[288]

The public

Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s.[289] Due to confusing
media coverage in the early 1990s, understanding was often confounded by conflation with
other environmental issues like ozone depletion.[290] In popular culture, the first movie to
reach a mass public on the topic was The Day After Tomorrow in 2004, followed a few years
later by the Al Gore documentary An Inconvenient Truth. Books, stories and films about
climate change fall under the genre of climate fiction.[289]

Significant regional differences exist in both public concern for and public understanding of
climate change.[291] In 2010, just a little over half the US population viewed it as a serious
concern for either themselves or their families, while 73% of people in Latin America and 74%
in developed Asia felt this way.[292] Similarly, in 2015 a median of 54% of respondents
considered it "a very serious problem", but Americans and Chinese (whose economies are
responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions) were among the least concerned.[291]
Public reactions to climate change and concern about its effects have been increasing, with
many perceiving it as the worst global threat.[293] In a 2019 CBS poll, 64% of the US
population said that climate change is a "crisis" or a "serious problem", with 44% saying
human activity was a significant contributor.[294]

Denial and misinformation

 Public debate about climate change has been
strongly affected by climate change denial and
misinformation, which originated in the
United States and has since spread to other
countries, particularly Canada and Australia.
The actors behind climate change denial form
a well-funded and relatively coordinated
coalition of fossil fuel companies, industry
groups, conservative think tanks, and
contrarian scientists.[296] Like the tobacco
industry before, the main strategy of these
groups has been to manufacture doubt about
scientific data and results.[297] Many who
One deceptive approach is cherry picking data
deny, dismiss, or hold unwarranted doubt
from short time periods to falsely assert that
global average temperatures are not rising. Blue
about the scientific consensus on
trendlines show short-term countertrends that anthropogenic climate change are labelled as
mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). "climate change skeptics", which several
Blue dots show the so-called global warming scientists have noted is a misnomer.[298]
hiatus.[295]
There are different variants of climate denial:
some deny that warming takes place at all,
some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimize the
negative impacts of climate change.[299] Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later
developed into a manufacturing controversy: creating the belief that there is significant
uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community in order to delay policy
changes.[300] Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions,[301]
and questioning the motives of individual scientists.[299] An "echo chamber" of climate-
denying blogs and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.[302]

Protest and litigation

Climate protests have risen in popularity in the 2010s in such forms as public
demonstrations,[303] fossil fuel divestment, and lawsuits.[304] Prominent recent
demonstrations include the school strike for climate, and civil disobedience. In the school
strike, youth across the globe have protested by skipping school, inspired by Swedish teenager
Greta Thunberg.[305] Mass civil disobedience actions by groups like Extinction Rebellion and
Ende Gelände, have ended in police intervention and large-scale arrests.[306] Litigation is
increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action, with many lawsuits targeting
governments to demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws regarding
climate change. Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies, from activists, shareholders and
investors, generally seek compensation for loss and damage.[307]

Discovery
In 1681 Edme Mariotte noted that glass,
though transparent to sunlight, obstructs
radiant heat.[308] Around 1774 Horace
Bénédict de Saussure showed that non-
luminous warm objects emit infrared heat,
and used a glass-topped insulated box to trap
and measure heat from sunlight.[309] In 1824
Joseph Fourier proposed by analogy a version
of the greenhouse effect; transparent
atmosphere lets through visible light, which
warms the surface. The warmed surface emits
infrared radiation, but the atmosphere is
relatively opaque to infrared and slows the
emission of energy, warming the planet.[310]
Starting in 1859,[311] John Tyndall established
that nitrogen and oxygen (99% of dry air) are Tyndall's sensitive ratio spectrophotometer
transparent to infrared, but water vapour and (drawing published in 1861) measured the extent
traces of some gases (significantly methane to which infrared radiation was absorbed and
and carbon dioxide) both absorb infrared and, emitted by various gases filling its central tube.
when warmed, emit infrared radiation.
Changing concentrations of these gases could
have caused "all the mutations of climate which the researches of geologists reveal" including
ice ages.[312]

Svante Arrhenius noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but carbon dioxide
(CO2) was determined by long term geological processes. At the end of an ice age, warming
from increased CO2 would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying its effect in a
feedback process. In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that
halving of CO2 could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age. Arrhenius
calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling CO2 to be around 5–6 °C (9.0–
10.8 °F).[313] Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed the greenhouse effect to be
saturated so that adding more CO2 would make no difference. Experts thought climate would
be self-regulating.[314] From 1938 Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence that climate was
warming and CO2 levels increasing,[315] but his calculations met the same objections.[314]

Early calculations treated the atmosphere as a single layer but in the 1950s, Gilbert Plass used
digital computers to model the different layers and found added CO2 would cause warming. In
the same decade Hans Suess found evidence CO2 levels had been rising, Roger Revelle showed
the oceans would not absorb the increase, and together they helped Charles Keeling to begin a
record of continued increase, the Keeling Curve.[314] Scientists alerted the public,[316] and the
dangers were highlighted at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony.[317] The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the
world's governments, spurred interdisciplinary research.[318]

Terminology
Before the 1980s, when it was unclear whether warming by greenhouse gases would dominate
aerosol-induced cooling, scientists often used the term inadvertent climate modification to
refer to humankind's impact on the climate. In the 1980s, the terms global warming and
climate change were introduced, the former referring only to increased surface warming,
while the latter describes the full effect of greenhouse gases on the climate.[319] Global
warming became the most popular term after NASA climate scientist James Hansen used it in
his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate.[317] In the 2000s, the term climate change increased in
popularity.[320] In lay usage, global warming usually refers to human-induced warming of the
Earth system, whereas climate change can refer to natural as well as anthropogenic
change.[321] The two terms are often used interchangeably.[322]

Various scientists, politicians and media figures have adopted the terms climate crisis or
climate emergency to talk about climate change, while using global heating instead of global
warming.[323] The policy editor-in-chief of The Guardian explained that they included this
language in their editorial guidelines "to ensure that we are being scientifically precise, while
also communicating clearly with readers on this very important issue".[324] Oxford Dictionary
chose climate emergency as its word of the year in 2019 and defines the term as "a situation
in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially
irreversible environmental damage resulting from it".[325]

See also
Anthropocene – proposed new geological time interval in which humans are having
significant geological impact
Global cooling – minority view held by scientists in the 1970s that imminent cooling of the
Earth would take place

Notes
1. IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers 2013, p. 4: Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over
decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow
and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases
have increased; Gleick, 7 January 2017
2. IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, p. 54: Abundant empirical evidence of the unprecedented rate and
global scale of impact of human influence on the Earth System (Steffen et al., 2016;
Waters et al., 2016) has led many scientists to call for an acknowledgement that the Earth
has entered a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene.
3. "Scientific Consensus: Earth's Climate is Warming" (https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-con
sensus/). Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. NASA JPL. Archived (https://web.arc
hive.org/web/20200328082109/https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/) from the
original on 28 March 2020. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
4. EPA 2020:Carbon dioxide (76%), Methane (16%), Nitrous Oxide (6%).
 5. EPA 2020:Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels (coal,
natural gas, and oil), solid waste, trees and other biological materials, and also as a result
of certain chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement). Fossil fuel use is the primary
source of CO2. CO2 can also be emitted from direct human-induced impacts on forestry
and other land use, such as through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and
degradation of soils. Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal,
natural gas, and oil. Methane emissions also result from livestock and other agricultural
practices and by the decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills.
6. USGCRP Chapter 3 2017 Figure 3.1 panel 2 (https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapt
er/3#fig-3-1), Figure 3.3 panel 5 (https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3#fig-3-3).
7. IPCC AR5 WG2 Technical Summary 2014, pp. 44–46; D'Odorico et al. 2013.
8. Campbella et al. 2016; National Research Council 2012, pp. 26–27.
9. Trenberth & Fasullo 2016
10. "Climate Change: Global Temperature" (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understan
ding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature).
11. IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers 2018, p. 7: Future climate-related risks ... are
larger if global warming exceeds 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) before returning to that level by 2100 than
if global warming gradually stabilizes at 1.5°C. ... Some impacts may be long-lasting or
irreversible, such as the loss of some ecosystems (high confidence).
12. Climate Action Tracker 2019, p. 1: Under current pledges, the world will warm by 2.8°C by
the end of the century, close to twice the limit they agreed in Paris. Governments are even
further from the Paris temperature limit in terms of their real-world action, which would see
the temperature rise by 3°C.; United Nations Environment Programme 2019, p. 27.
13. IPCC SR15 Ch2 2018, p. 95: In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C,
global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030
(40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050 (2045–2055 interquartile
range); Rogelj et al. 2015.
14. Neukom et al. 2019.
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External links
Climate Change at the National Academies (http://dels.nas.edu/Climate/Climate-Change/
Reports-Academies-Findings) – Repository for reports
Met Office: Climate Guide (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide) – UK National
Weather Service
Educational Global Climate Modelling (http://edgcm.columbia.edu/) (EdGCM) – Research-
quality climate change simulator
Global Climate Change Indicators (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/i
ndicators.php) – NOAA
Result of total melting of Polar regions on World (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/ma
gazine/2013/09/rising-seas-ice-melt-new-shoreline-maps/) – National Geographic

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