Tugas ENMS 4
Tugas ENMS 4
% %
34.8 65.2
32.0 68.0
36.4 63.6
36.3 63.7
34.5 65.5
34.2 65.8
33.5 66.5
31.8 68.2
33.7 66.3
33.7 66.3
35.9 64.1
36.0 64.0
35.2 64.8
33.2 66.8
37.1 62.9
38.7 61.3
39.6 60.4
43.8 56.2
36.7 63.3
37.0 63.0
39.4 60.6
39.8 60.2
33.8 66.2
26.3 73.7
61.3 38.7
41.4 58.6
37.4 62.6
38.8 61.2
36.9 63.1
39.1 60.9
42.6 57.4
37.1 62.9
32.9 67.1
34.9 65.1
36.8 63.2
0.2 99.8
0.2 99.8
60.1 39.9
413 787
441 759
378 822
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable
Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3
Pulp Paper Tissue
12,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy
12,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
0.00
1 2 3
Actual 4
Energy 5 6 7 Energy
Prediction 8 9 10 11 12
Persamaan Linear
12,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
f(x) = 14.4950470804621 x + 4984927.99397689
R² = 0.345000580602869
8,000,000.00
Energy (G/J)
6,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
0.00
290000 300000 310000 320000 330000 340000 350000 360000 370000
Production (Ton)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
LINEST
gy
MS F Significance F
5.7489E+11 2.1267282922 0.17504867
2.7032E+11
1 + 38.07185471 X2 + 157.324143 X3
REGRESSION
NO 0.719730658 NO 0.45088248 NO
YES
YES
NO
NO
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable
Dependent Variable
Energy
6000000
May-13 675731.08 9502757.39729
Jun-13 715655.06 10035738.312 4000000
Jul-13 767573.68 10681488.8412 2000000
Aug-13 748404.88 10234399.5756
0
Sep-13 732673.29 10246823.4947 600000 620000 640000 660000 680000 700000
Oct-13 718846.68 10000197.3274 Total Production
Nov-13 726847.556 10365961.3912
Dec-13 737015.07 10437987.4489
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
Black Liquor Bark Palmshell (CPO) Saw Dust Fibre
Jan-13 352582.01 109809.34 1905 1515.58 0
Feb-13 368651.6 127870.3 1845.61 1373.11 0
Mar-13 379366.55 141480.67 1358.1 884.93 0
Apr-13 375898.55 140915.03 1058 2245.38 0
May-13 372908.73 129142.28 1955 1623.76 0
Jun-13 384165.67 153380.68 1200 2138.2 0
Jul-13 415085.92 162803.22 920 2398.41 0
Aug-13 399864.32 171976.94 1085 938.98 0
Sep-13 392519.76 162882.03 1024 1324.23 0
Oct-13 377922.16 163238.73 2000 1821.15 0
Nov-13 406948.85 127394.5 1640 1466.76 0
Dec-13 399230.59 143665.63 598 1527.56 0
Jumlah
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Non-Fossil Fuel
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Prediction Energy
Regression Statistics
8973273.09 Multiple R 0.934098366219801
8784021.77 R Square 0.872539757774502
9755172.85 Adjusted R Square 0.799705333645645
9457822.34 Standard Error 266046.627642603
9795284.94 Observations 12
10064217.26
10471600.83 ANOVA
9881173.75 df SS
10119297.28 Regression 4 ###
9888005.55 Residual 7 495465656560
10394950.88 Total 11 ###
10569023.58
118153844.1188 Coefficients Standard Error
0.01 Intercept 3753538.01216333 1384997.85907
9,846,154 X Variable 1 36.4506428152576 7.21565998184
X Variable 2 -2853.29179170126 2208.3382718
X Variable 3 383.845448209813 612.881047376
X Variable 4 -154.408831440308 340.88996511
dan Prediction Energy
dan Prediction Energy
Y= 3753538.012 + 36.45064282 X1 - 2853.291792X2 + 383.8454482X3
LINEST
-154.408831440307 383.84544821
340.889965109938 612.881047376
0.872539757774502 266046.627643
11.9797714914425 7
3391751627112.27 495465656560
Y= 3753538.012 + 36.45064282 X1 - 2853.291792X2
ossil Fuel
X6 SUMMARY OUTPUT
Actual Energy Prediction Energy
Tankos
923 8864965.22829 8742143.03 Regression Statistics
1300.6 9018204.04859 9202146.24 Multiple R
235 9415962.48625 9605882.49 R Square
0 9349358.55969 9643423.10 Adjusted R Squar
1000 9502757.39729 9405665.92 Standard Error
400 10035738.312 9887683.98 Observations
100 10681488.8412 10806335.24
0 10234399.5756 10334921.10 ANOVA
0 10246823.4947 10117185.29
200 10000197.3274 9873134.99 Regression
100 10365961.3912 10381803.23 Residual
10 10437987.4489 10153519.50 Total
118153844.111 118153844.12049
SELISIH 0.01
AVERAGE 9,846,154 9,846,154 Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4
n Prediction Energy X Variable 5
X Variable 6
Y= -1634790.8 + 26.8
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
7 8 9 10 11 12
Prediction Energy
LINEST
-2853.2917917013 36.4506428152576 3753538.01216
2208.3382717954 7.21565998184191 1384997.85907
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
36.45064282 X1 - 2853.291792X2 + 383.8454482X3 - 154.4088314X4
ITY OR REGRESSION
0.8725397577745 YES
0.0270203610871 YES
0.0000000001 YES
-0.4529579842296 NO 0.62629681543 NO -1.2920538 NO
2.710139938174 YES
MARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.9714159957423
0.9436490367841
0.8760278809249
209307.63873523
12
df SS MS F Significance F
6 3668168845507.69 611361474251 13.954938 0.00546874
5 219048438164.594 43809687633
11 3887217283672.28
LINEST
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
- 140.5327874X6
NO 0.64167692 NO
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable
Energy (G/J)
Total Production (Ton)
Jan-14 808454.36 11282627.9831236 14000000
Feb-14 745501.87 10208479.6972878 12000000 f(x) = 14.35
Mar-14 R² = 0.9270
854064.02 12028044.4649238 10000000
Apr-14 778071.81 11298326.9862645 8000000
Energy
May-14 742651.94 10890535.9651739 6000000
Jun-14 700936.117 10471914.8077689 4000000
Jul-14 846556.77 12554782.304051
2000000
Aug-14 880049.75 12505777.1400682
0
Sep-14 768699.357 11085588.0433278 600000 650000
Oct-14 761755.514 11204038.1510135
Nov-14 671241.05 9581976.82035393
Dec-14 640012.9 8929128.35849103
Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
Jan-14 201421.03 115.54 187.19 187.11
Feb-14 169863.92 101.29 211.86 516.74
Mar-14 224778.57 147.62 335.53 371.7
Apr-14 220859.65 229.92 228.63 175.58
May-14 222543.93 57.18 374.36 143.67
Jun-14 227042.29 71.88 100.34 258.227
Jul-14 228173.89 39.65 127.81 322.92
Aug-14 227188.51 50.74 662.95 126.04
Sep-14 226586.93 259.4 302.26 259.927
Oct-14 223031.01 185.77 476.75 214.324
Nov-14 165614.55 125.7 58.35 385.74
Dec-14 118448 194.56 176.32 287.65
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE
12000000
10000000
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Non-Fossil Fuel
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
X1 X2 X3 X4
Black Liquor Bark Palmshell (CPO) Saw Dust
Jan-14 446229.72 158130.28 500 1683.49
Feb-14 389400.66 183120.62 600 1636.78
Mar-14 420474.03 205843.32 600 1513.25
Apr-14 398651.5 155151.31 500 2225.22
May-14 363414.7 153419.28 350 2298.82
Jun-14 317409.6 153435.17 200 2368.61
Jul-14 437934.19 177057.66 200 2688.03
Aug-14 452744.33 195875 600 2802.18
Sep-14 399592.51 137235.37 1893 2569.96
Oct-14 418273.82 116254.62 1190.05 2129.17
Nov-14 408185.02 93254.53 1120 2497.16
Dec-14 419412.4 96643.57 70.5 2379.9
Jumlah
10000000
5000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
600000 650000 700000 750000 800000 850000 900000
Total Production
SUMMARY OUTPUT
1161.26857233458
2207.65948910143
0.751312533061961
5.28694489130013
9899249541280.95
Y= 5792471.66 + 23.1916
r Non-Fossil Fuel
X5 X6 Prediction
Actual Energy
Fibre Tankos Energy
0 0 11282627.983124 11,278,053.14
0 50 10208479.697288 11,037,454.28
0 0 12028044.464924 11,701,365.93
0 50 11298326.986265 11,097,624.53
0 50 10890535.965174 10,765,723.56
0 50 10471914.807769 10,347,934.26
0 12.62 12554782.304051 12,293,986.95
0 0 12505777.140068 12,832,906.42
0 0 11085588.043328 10,949,791.88
0 0 11204038.151014 10,519,418.42
0 0 9581976.8203539 10,294,367.44
0 2400 8929128.358491 8,922,593.89
132041220.72185 132041220.7061
SELISIH 0.02
AVERAGE 11,003,435 11,003,435
iction Energy
iction Energy
8 9 10 11 12
nergy
SS MS F Significance F
9899249541281 2474812385320.23 5.2869448913 0.02783855
3276691369670 468098767095.65
1.3175941E+13
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
1841394.06346 3.14569910440029 0.01624933408 1438266.6 10146677 1438266.6 10146677
6.89563363848 3.36324200364821 0.01203088766 6.88610216 39.4972672 6.88610216 39.4972672
2890.427914 -0.78663172575691 0.45729723805 -9108.4782 4561.07364 -9108.4782 4561.07364
1428.5535119 1.1658832275066 0.28184470959 -1712.4657 5043.51886 -1712.4657 5043.51886
2207.6594891 0.526017974269778 0.61512365079 -4059.0166 6381.55374 -4059.0166 6381.55374
Y= 5792471.66 + 23.1916847X1 - 2273.7023X2 + 1665.52658X3 + 1161.26857X4
LINEST
1665.52657912 -2273.70229816235 23.1916846947 5792471.66
1428.5535119 2890.42791399565 6.89563363848 1841394.06
684177.438312 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3276691369670 #N/A #N/A #N/A
0.751312533061961 YES
0.062178531937714 YES
error <0.005%? 0.0000000004 YES
nt variable sensitivity > 2 0.5260179743 NO 1.16588323 NO -0.7866317 NO
3.14569910440029 YES
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.920851048832273
R Square 0.847966654135498
Adjusted R Squa0.665526639098094
Standard Error 632958.510742178
Observations 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 1.1172759E+13 1.8621E+12 4.64792033 0.05647031
Residual 52003182381605 4.0064E+11
Total 11 1.3175941E+13
LINEST
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
3.363242 NO
X4 + 0X5 - 651.6353435X6
NO -0.1976422 NO
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable
Energy (G/J)
Total Production (Ton)
Jan-15 215787.337 10420537.4787017 12000000
Feb-15 191313.72 10061903.4522646 10000000
Mar-15 f(x) = 7.228
208850.5 10987882.7621415 R² = 0.0024
8000000
Apr-15 192325.09 10483647.1969607
Energy
May-15 6000000
204521.534 10419769.1234559
Jun-15 195630.441 9310355.35422652 4000000
Jul-15 200261.36 10843307.0920437 2000000
Aug-15 176347.88 10715348.4085493
0
Sep-15 178512.67 10381965.0489571 170000 175000 180000
Oct-15 194755.57 10975135.3130516
Nov-15 194373.83 6512233.10933699
Dec-15 195835.93 6400892.82489038
10000000
8000000
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Fossil Fuel
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
X1 X2 X3 X4
Black Liquor Bark Palmshell (CPO) Saw Dust
Jan-15 408,298 108,512 900 2,106
Feb-15 400,404 112,293 400 1,979
Mar-15 428,864 118,550 800 1,883
Apr-15 412,113 110,972 763 1,785
May-15 392,973 110,285 1,641 1,794
Jun-15 326,032 100,999 1,096 1,102
Jul-15 415,838 148,379 641 816
Aug-15 409,876 162,661 469 1,117
Sep-15 390,928 148,428 1,416 1,210
Oct-15 412,003 143,766 2,459 1,406
Nov-15 400,892 128,990 436 1,473
Dec-15 412,321 120,460 703 1,192
Jumlah
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction E
Non-Fossil Fuel
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10000000
f(x) = 7.22874538120566 x + 8378012.83120493
8000000 R² = 0.002486525440637
Energy
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
170000 175000 180000 185000 190000 195000 200000 205000 210000 215000 220000
Total Production
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Y= 6818017.719 + 0.871873
ction Energy
1360.29286298311
4102.80232336109
0.132724842099439
0.267814051351681
3844329012667.27
Y= 681801
X5 X6
Actual Energy Prediction Energy
Fibre Tankos
- 625 10,420,537 9,578,768.08
- 1,721 10,061,903 9,147,511.29
- 4,184 10,987,883 10,890,114.71
300 5,248 10,483,647 10,298,146.07
405 4,719 10,419,769 11,875,936.52
360 5,368 9,310,355 8,921,956.29
100 1,627 10,843,307 9,664,218.19
1,700 1,585 10,715,348 11,258,163.84
9,327 1,286 10,381,965 10,142,563.88
15,750 1,709 10,975,135 10,597,392.51
3,373 272 6,512,233 8,070,892.78
2,590 425 6,400,893 7,067,312.98
117512977.16458 117512977.137002
SELISIH 0.03
AVERAGE 9,792,748 9,792,748
Actual dan Prediction Energy
el
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
14083812.6076 0.484103126665 0.64309079394 -26484907 40120943 -26484907 40120943
71.850580425 0.01213454148 0.99065687259 -169.02775 170.771499 -169.02775 170.771499
9114.69595893 0.507702954354 0.62726372022 -16925.273 26180.3892 -16925.273 26180.3892
5964.72188595 0.523980036219 0.61646822009 -10978.931 17229.7212 -10978.931 17229.7212
4102.80232336 0.33155213334 0.74993274156 -8341.293 11061.8787 -8341.293 11061.8787
0.132724842099 NO
0.193445671358 YES
error <0.005%? 0.00000000004 YES
nt variable sensitivity > 2 0.33155213334 NO 0.52398004 NO 0.50770295 NO
0.484103126665 NO
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.838124130979
R Square 0.702452058929
Adjusted R Squa 0.345394529644
Standard Error 1312887.878046
Observations 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 2.034628E+13 3.391E+12 1.9673358 0.23736096
Residual 58618372901596 1.7237E+12
Total 11 2.8964653E+13
LINEST
378.8058802 -240.384068111 2819.84210239 1879.74282 98.6423309
303.522132446 198.0445925998 1641.18338584 1427.64797 40.8826829
0.70245205893 1312887.878046 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.96733579694 5 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2.034628E+13 8618372901596 #N/A #N/A #N/A
240.3840681X5 + 378.8058802X6
240.3840681X5 + 378.8058802X6
NO 1.31667109 NO
INTENTITAS ENERGI 2013
Actual Energy
JUMLAH
January 300301.77 8,864,965
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
12000000
February 316024.44 9,018,204
March 338135.301 9,415,962 10000000
April 338901.791 9,349,359 8000000
May 343471.82 9,502,757
6000000
June 360636.64 10,035,738
July 360805.77 10,681,489 4000000
August 349462.91 10,234,400 2000000
September 348587.91 10,246,823
October 0
362962.086 10,000,197 ry ry ril ly t r
ch ay ne Ju us be
November 381280.736 10,365,961 nua r ua ar Ap M Ju u g m
Ja b M A e
Fe pt
December 191983.29 10,437,987 Se
JUMLAH 118,153,844
9,846,154
Actual Energy
Jumlah
il ay ne ly t r r r r
pr M Ju Ju gus be o be be be
u em t m m
A pt Oc ve ce
Se No De
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
ril ay ne Ju
ly us
t
be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
Ap M Ju u g
em to m m
A pt Oc ve ce
Se No De
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
ar
y ch ril ay ne Ju
ly st be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
ar Ap M Ju u gu m to m m
M A e Oc ve ce
pt De
Se No