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Tugas ENMS 4

The document appears to be a monthly report of various quantities including fossil fuels, non-fossil fuels, and other materials from January 2013 to December 2015. It includes coal, diesel oil, natural gas, black liquor, bark, palm shells, saw dust, and other items measured in tons or calories per month. The totals for each year are also reported at the bottom.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
61 views58 pages

Tugas ENMS 4

The document appears to be a monthly report of various quantities including fossil fuels, non-fossil fuels, and other materials from January 2013 to December 2015. It includes coal, diesel oil, natural gas, black liquor, bark, palm shells, saw dust, and other items measured in tons or calories per month. The totals for each year are also reported at the bottom.

Uploaded by

yuri67
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 58

Quantity

Fossil Fuel Non Fo


Coal MFO DO MB DO RB Black Liquor
Month
Ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month TDS/month

619,347 Jan-13 150,992 107.5 476.4 1,036.8 352,582


648,731 Feb-13 147,099 135.0 230.9 224.8 368,652
691,660 Mar-13 167,744 36.9 145.0 408.8 379,367
689,917 Apr-13 169,326 149.7 17.8 306.9 375,899
675,731 May-13 168,522 42.6 192.5 344.6 372,909
715,655 Jun-13 173,908 49.6 328.7 83.8 384,166
767,574 Jul-13 185,898 36.5 180.8 150.7 415,086
748,405 Aug-13 173,552 50.4 167.3 770.2 399,864
732,673 Sep-13 174,156 39.0 448.5 279.7 392,520
718,847 Oct-13 173,191 57.7 93.5 322.3 377,922
726,848 Nov-13 188,697 94.5 206.2 299.7 406,949
737,015 Dec-13 191,312 87.7 339.0 244.6 399,231
2,064,397 887.2 2,826.7 4,472.9
808,454 Jan-14 201,421 115.5 187.2 187.1 446,230
745,502 Feb-14 169,864 101.3 211.9 516.7 389,401
854,064 Mar-14 224,779 147.6 335.5 371.7 420,474
778,072 Apr-14 220,860 229.9 228.6 175.6 398,652
742,652 May-14 222,544 57.2 374.4 143.7 363,415
700,936 Jun-14 227,042 71.9 100.3 258.2 317,410
846,557 Jul-14 228,174 39.7 127.8 322.9 437,934
880,050 Aug-14 227,189 50.7 663.0 126.0 452,744
768,699 Sep-14 226,587 259.4 302.3 259.9 399,593
761,756 Oct-14 223,031 185.8 476.8 214.3 418,274
671,241 Nov-14 165,615 125.7 58.4 385.7 408,185
640,013 Dec-14 118,448 194.6 176.3 287.7 419,412
2,455,552 1,579.3 3,242.4 3,249.6
736,228 Jan-15 214,901 256.9 486.9 142.6 408,298
708,110 Feb-15 190,470 213.9 394.0 236.3 400,404
763,132 Mar-15 207,645 290.4 619.0 296.0 428,864
723,506 Apr-15 191,419 157.8 421.6 326.3 412,113
716,339 May-15 203,783 159.6 366.2 212.6 392,973
630,587 Jun-15 194,481 185.8 261.6 701.7 326,032
767,662 Jul-15 199,337 273.5 248.3 402.8 415,838
753,756 Aug-15 175,681 313.8 222.7 130.5 409,876
731,106 Sep-15 177,536 412.2 354.1 210.1 390,928
771,848 Oct-15 193,528 393.7 628.4 205.4 412,003
729,809 Nov-15 193,506 268.8 381.6 217.7 400,892
733,525 Dec-15 195,089 206.2 301.8 238.7 412,321
2,337,376 3,132.5 4,686.1 3,320.8
Y2013 2,064,397 887 2,827 4,473 4,625,145
Y2014 2,455,552 1,579 3,242 3,250 4,871,722
Y2015 2,337,376 3,132 4,686 3,321 4,810,541
Quantity
Non Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel
Bark Palmshell Saw Dust Fibre Tankos Coal MFO Diesel Oil
(CPO)
ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg

109,809 1,905 1,516 - 923 4,766 10,323.0 10,884.0


127,870 1,846 1,373 - 1,301 4,639 10,323.0 10,832.0
141,481 1,358 885 - 235 4,836 10,323.0 10,926.0
140,915 1,058 2,245 - - 4,761 10,323.0 10,900.0
129,142 1,955 1,624 - 1,000 4,605 10,323.0 10,926.0
153,381 1,200 2,138 - 400 4,681 10,323.0 10,897.0
162,803 920 2,398 - 100 4,579 10,323.0 10,988.0
171,977 1,085 939 - - 4,421 10,323.0 10,911.0
162,882 1,024 1,324 - - 4,687 10,323.0 10,885.0
163,239 2,000 1,821 - 200 4,618 10,323.0 10,898.0
127,395 1,640 1,467 - 100 4,681 10,323.0 10,998.0
143,666 598 1,528 - 10 4,647 10,323.0 10,952.0
4,660 10,323.0 10,916.4
158,130 500 1,683 - - 4,689 10,323.0 10,853.0
183,121 600 1,637 - 50 4,718 10,323.0 10,731.0
205,843 600 1,513 - - 4,700 10,323.0 10,799.0
155,151 500 2,225 - 50 4,702 10,323.0 10,767.0
153,419 350 2,299 - 50 4,604 10,323.0 10,880.0
153,435 200 2,369 - 50 4,810 10,323.0 10,903.0
177,058 200 2,688 - 13 4,804 10,323.0 10,809.0
195,875 600 2,802 - - 4,831 10,323.0 10,870.0
137,235 1,893 2,570 - - 4,566 10,323.0 10,801.0
116,255 1,190 2,129 - - 4,733 10,323.0 10,843.0
93,255 1,120 2,497 - - 4,640 10,323.0 10,809.0
96,644 71 2,380 - 2,400 4,677 10,323.0 10,846.0

108,512 900 2,106 - 625 4,749 10,323.0 10,935.0


112,293 400 1,979 - 1,721 4,667 10,323.0 10,873.0
118,550 800 1,883 - 4,184 4,842 10,204.0 10,948.0
110,972 763 1,785 300 5,248 4,772 10,204.0 10,931.0
110,285 1,641 1,794 405 4,719 4,739 10,204.0 10,906.0
100,999 1,096 1,102 360 5,368 4,808 10,926.0 10,302.0
148,379 641 816 100 1,627 4,772 10,964.0 10,302.0
162,661 469 1,117 1,700 1,585 4,755 10,435.0 10,949.0
148,428 1,416 1,210 9,327 1,286 4,813 10,475.0 10,993.0
143,766 2,459 1,406 15,750 1,709 4,913 10,393.0 10,975.0
128,990 436 1,473 3,373 272 4,799 10,401.0 10,952.0
120,460 703 1,192 2,590 425 4,725 10,401.0 11,010.0
4,780
1,734,559 16,589 19,258 - 4,269 55,921 123,876 130,997
1,825,421 7,824 26,793 - 2,613 56,474 123,876 129,911
1,514,293 11,722 17,863 33,904 28,770 57,354 125,253 130,076
Calori
el Non Fossil Fuel Fossil Fu
Natural Gas Black Liquor Bark Palmshell Saw Dust Fibre Tankos Coal
(CPO)
kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg ton/month kcal/kg GJ/month

- 3,123 2,416 3,859 2,894 - 2,136 3,012,856


- 3,123 2,346 3,925 2,894 - 2,136 2,856,969
- 3,123 1,684 3,824 2,894 - 2,136 3,396,295
- 3,123 1,684 3,809 2,894 - 2,136 3,375,155
- 3,123 2,389 3,787 2,894 - 2,136 3,249,054
- 3,123 2,389 3,933 2,894 - 2,136 3,408,246
- 3,123 2,389 3,906 2,894 - 2,136 3,563,835
- 3,123 2,389 3,773 2,894 - 2,136 3,212,339
- 3,123 2,389 3,939 2,894 - 2,136 3,417,474
- 3,123 2,389 3,838 2,894 - 2,136 3,348,509
- 3,123 2,389 3,865 2,894 - 2,136 3,698,074
- 3,123 2,389 3,851 2,894 - 2,136 3,722,089
2,270 3,859 2,894 2,136 40,260,895
- 3,049 2,389 3,824 2,894 - 2,136 3,954,184
- 3,039 2,389 3,869 2,894 - 2,136 3,355,297
- 3,113 2,389 3,994 2,894 - 2,136 4,423,078
- 3,197 2,389 3,875 2,894 - 2,136 4,347,813
- 3,164 2,688 3,929 2,894 - 2,136 4,289,660
- 3,198 2,487 4,082 2,894 - 2,136 4,572,184
- 3,307 2,487 4,000 2,894 - 2,136 4,589,240
- 3,054 2,487 4,048 2,894 - 2,136 4,595,103
- 3,124 2,487 3,821 2,894 - 2,136 4,331,543
- 3,075 2,704 3,783 2,894 - 2,136 4,419,505
- 3,063 2,704 3,933 2,894 - 1,516 3,217,276
- 3,095 2,704 3,967 2,894 - 2,144 2,319,353
48,414,236
- 3,051 1,865 4,015 2,894 - 1,929 4,272,798
- 3,053 2,422 4,198 2,894 - 2,140 3,721,648
- 3,036 2,422 4,093 2,894 - 1,942 4,209,381
- 3,137 2,422 4,028 2,894 2,644 1,914 3,824,354
- 3,120 2,422 4,070 2,894 2,644 1,930 4,043,216
- 3,110 2,422 3,949 2,894 2,644 1,822 3,914,842
- 3,033 2,422 3,822 2,894 3,475 1,934 3,982,537
- 3,069 2,730 4,140 2,894 3,753 1,986 3,497,413
- 3,125 2,360 3,741 2,894 3,363 2,097 3,577,458
- 3,017 2,422 4,215 2,894 3,054 2,097 3,980,728
- 3,051 2,422 3,824 2,894 3,272 2,097 -
- 3,026 2,184 3,926 2,894 3,272 2,097 -
2,343 39,024,377
- 37,478 27,240 46,309 34,728 - 25,632 40,260,895
- 37,478 30,302 47,126 34,728 - 25,020 48,414,236
- 36,828 28,515 48,020 34,728 28,119 23,984 39,024,377
Energy Content
Fossil Fuel Non Fossil Fuel
MFO DO MB DO RB Black Liquor Bark Palmshell Saw Dust

GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month

4,647 21,706 47,244 4,610,330 1,110,789 30,776 18,363


5,836 10,472 10,197 4,820,454 1,255,682 30,327 16,637
1,595 6,634 18,701 4,960,562 997,608 21,745 10,722
6,471 813 14,007 4,915,215 993,619 16,873 27,206
1,843 8,807 15,762 4,876,120 1,291,558 30,996 19,674
2,145 14,997 3,822 5,023,315 1,533,968 19,760 25,907
1,578 8,317 6,931 5,427,625 1,628,203 15,046 29,060
2,177 7,642 35,185 5,228,589 1,719,950 17,141 11,377
1,686 20,440 12,748 5,132,552 1,628,991 16,887 16,045
2,493 4,266 14,706 4,941,675 1,632,559 32,135 22,066
4,084 9,496 13,798 5,321,226 1,274,079 26,539 17,772
3,792 15,544 11,214 5,220,303 1,436,807 9,642 18,508
38,346 129,133 204,316 60,477,968 16,503,811 267,866 233,336
4,994 8,506 8,502 5,696,570 1,581,469 8,006 20,398
4,378 9,518 23,216 4,954,674 1,831,398 9,720 19,832
6,380 15,170 16,805 5,479,593 2,058,649 10,034 18,335
9,937 10,306 7,915 5,335,161 1,551,676 8,111 26,961
2,471 17,053 6,544 4,814,433 1,726,317 5,758 27,853
3,107 4,580 11,787 4,249,940 1,597,753 3,418 28,699
1,714 5,784 14,613 6,063,662 1,843,739 3,349 32,569
2,193 30,170 5,736 5,788,766 2,039,688 10,169 33,952
11,211 13,668 11,754 5,226,928 1,429,061 30,284 31,138
8,029 21,643 9,730 5,384,560 1,315,928 18,847 25,798
5,433 2,641 17,456 5,234,893 1,055,582 18,440 30,256
8,409 8,007 13,062 5,434,799 1,093,944 1,171 28,836
68,254 147,046 147,121 63,663,979 19,125,203 127,306 324,627
11,101 22,292 6,527 5,214,800 847,319 15,129 25,522
9,244 17,934 10,757 5,117,216 1,138,681 7,031 23,976
12,406 28,372 13,569 5,451,475 1,202,131 13,710 22,816
6,743 19,292 14,935 5,413,162 1,125,285 12,868 21,628
6,817 16,719 9,706 5,132,667 1,118,322 27,956 21,742
8,500 11,281 30,265 4,244,911 1,024,161 18,111 13,358
12,553 10,708 17,375 5,280,763 1,504,602 10,248 9,889
13,708 10,210 5,981 5,267,317 1,859,169 8,126 13,532
18,078 16,299 9,672 5,114,472 1,466,558 22,178 14,656
17,130 28,876 9,438 5,204,337 1,457,825 43,380 17,034
- - 9,982 5,120,843 1,307,998 6,980 17,845
- - 11,004 5,223,242 1,101,452 11,547 14,439
116,280 181,983 149,211 61,785,205 15,153,505 197,264 216,437
38,346 129,133 204,316 60,477,968 16,503,811 267,866 233,336
68,254 147,046 147,121 63,663,979 19,125,203 127,306 324,627
116,280 181,983 149,211 61,785,205 15,153,505 197,264 216,437
Energy Content
Total Energy Fossil Fuel Total Energy Non Fossil Fuel Total Energy
Fibre Tankos

ton/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month

8,254 3,086,453 5,778,512 8,864,965


11,631 2,883,473 6,134,731 9,018,204
2,102 3,423,224 5,992,739 9,415,962
- 3,396,446 5,952,913 9,349,359
8,943 3,275,466 6,227,291 9,502,757
3,577 3,429,211 6,606,527 10,035,738
894 3,580,661 7,100,828 10,681,489
- 3,257,343 6,977,057 10,234,400
- 3,452,349 6,794,475 10,246,823
1,789 3,369,974 6,630,223 10,000,197
894 3,725,452 6,640,510 10,365,961
89 3,752,638 6,685,349 10,437,987
38,173
- 3,976,185 7,306,443 11,282,628
447 3,392,408 6,816,071 10,208,480
- 4,461,434 7,566,611 12,028,044
447 4,375,971 6,922,356 11,298,327
447 4,315,729 6,574,807 10,890,536
447 4,591,658 5,880,257 10,471,915
113 4,611,351 7,943,431 12,554,782
- 4,633,202 7,872,575 12,505,777
- 4,368,176 6,717,412 11,085,588
- 4,458,906 6,745,132 11,204,038
- 3,242,805 6,339,171 9,581,977
21,548 2,348,831 6,580,298 8,929,128
23,449 132,017,771 83,264,564 215,282,335
- 5,048 4,312,719 6,107,818 10,420,537
- 15,418 3,759,582 6,302,321 10,061,903
- 34,021 4,263,729 6,724,154 10,987,883
3,320 42,059 3,865,325 6,618,323 10,483,647
4,486 38,138 4,076,459 6,343,310 10,419,769
3,985 40,940 3,964,889 5,345,466 9,310,355
1,455 13,178 4,023,172 6,820,135 10,843,307
26,713 13,180 3,527,312 7,188,037 10,715,348
131,307 11,287 3,621,506 6,760,459 10,381,965
201,383 15,003 4,036,172 6,938,963 10,975,135
46,197 2,388 9,982 6,502,251 6,512,233
35,478 3,731 11,004 6,389,888 6,400,893
454,322 234,393 117,512,977 78,041,126 195,554,103
- 38,173 40,632,690 77,521,155 118,153,844
- 23,449 48,776,657 83,264,564 132,041,221
454,322 234,393 39,471,851 78,041,126 117,512,977
Energy Fossil Energy Non Fossil

% %

34.8 65.2
32.0 68.0
36.4 63.6
36.3 63.7
34.5 65.5
34.2 65.8
33.5 66.5
31.8 68.2
33.7 66.3
33.7 66.3
35.9 64.1
36.0 64.0

35.2 64.8
33.2 66.8
37.1 62.9
38.7 61.3
39.6 60.4
43.8 56.2
36.7 63.3
37.0 63.0
39.4 60.6
39.8 60.2
33.8 66.2
26.3 73.7
61.3 38.7
41.4 58.6
37.4 62.6
38.8 61.2
36.9 63.1
39.1 60.9
42.6 57.4
37.1 62.9
32.9 67.1
34.9 65.1
36.8 63.2
0.2 99.8
0.2 99.8
60.1 39.9
413 787
441 759
378 822
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

No Production (Ton) Energy (GJ)


Jan-13 334053 8,864,965.23
Feb-13 296486 9,018,204.05
Mar-13 331399 9,415,962.49
Apr-13 327832 9,349,358.56
Mei-13 308396 9,502,757.40
Juni-13 297965 10,035,738.31
Juli-13 343388 10,681,488.84
Agu-13 347366 10,234,399.58
Sep-13 349100 10,246,823.49
Okt-13 363725 10,000,197.33
Nov-13 360055 10,365,961.39
Des-13 364693 10,437,987.45

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3
Pulp Paper Tissue

Jan-13 230327 84052 19674


Feb-13 198040 81005 17441
Mar-13 227123 85178 19098
Apr-13 228151 80692 18989
Mei-13 202565 86273 19558
Juni-13 195364 83575 19026
Juli-13 238823 83243 21322
Agu-13 239683 85685 21998
Sep-13 239683 88760 20657
Okt-13 250116 91999 21610
Nov-13 246922 92319 20814
Des-13 255790 90344 18559
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

8,000,000.00
Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

8,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

0.00
1 2 3
Actual 4
Energy 5 6 7 Energy
Prediction 8 9 10 11 12
Persamaan Linear
12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00
f(x) = 14.4950470804621 x + 4984927.99397689
R² = 0.345000580602869
8,000,000.00
Energy (G/J)

6,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

0.00
290000 300000 310000 320000 330000 340000 350000 360000 370000
Production (Ton)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction


Energy
Regression Statistics
8,864,965.23 9,738,297.59 Multiple R 0.6660922749
9,018,204.05 9,109,529.75 R Square 0.4436789187
9,415,962.49 9,674,525.51 Adjusted R Squ 0.2350585132
9,349,358.56 9,491,727.57 Standard Error 519920.77793
9,502,757.40 9,665,775.73 Observations 12
10,035,738.31 9,443,351.27
10,681,488.84 10,009,253.73 ANOVA
10,234,399.58 10,212,876.93 df SS
10,246,823.49 10,118,976.21 Regression 3 1.724676E+12
10,000,197.33 10,444,393.32 Residual 8 2.162541E+12
10,365,961.39 10,315,374.01 Total 11 3.887217E+12
10,437,987.45 9,929,762.50
118,153,844.11118,153,844.11 Coefficients Standard Error
0.00 Intercept 2291287.1326 3634424.4145
9,846,153.68 9,846,153.68 X Variable 1 5.0007152474 11.090950369
X Variable 2 38.071854711 52.897364157
X Variable 3 157.32414299 139.61534323

gy Y= 2291287.13256942 + 5.00071524744459 X1 + 38.07185471089

LINEST
gy

157.32414299 38.071854711 5.0007152474


139.61534323 52.897364157 11.090950369
0.4436789187 519920.77793 #N/A
2.1267282922 8 #N/A
1.724676E+12 2.162541E+12 #N/A

Y = 2291287.133 + 5.000715247 X1 + 38.07185471 X2 + 157.3241

10 11 12 PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION


Regression Checks
R2>0.75? 0.4436789187
Cvrmse<0.2? 0.0528044549
Mean bias error <0.005%? 1.135049E-15
Independent variable sensitivit 1.1268399256
Intercept tstat>2? 0.6304401664
0000 360000 370000

MS F Significance F
5.7489E+11 2.1267282922 0.17504867
2.7032E+11

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


0.63044017 0.5459895806 -6089710.6 10672285 -6089710.6 10672285
0.45088248 0.6640442963 -20.575062 30.5764927 -20.575062 30.5764927
0.71973066 0.4921789201 -83.909686 160.053395 -83.909686 160.053395
1.12683993 0.2924726467 -164.62942 479.277702 -164.62942 479.277702

24744459 X1 + 38.0718547108939 X2 + 157.324142985524 X3


2291287.13
3634424.41
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

1 + 38.07185471 X2 + 157.324143 X3

REGRESSION

NO 0.719730658 NO 0.45088248 NO
YES
YES
NO
NO
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable
Dependent Variable

Total Energy (G/J) 2013


Production
(Ton) 12000000
Jan-13 619347.08 8864965.22829
Feb-13 10000000 f(x) = 13.3457170174092 x + 42362
648730.84 9018204.04859 R² = 0.922093747416253
Mar-13 691660.07 9415962.48625 8000000
Apr-13 689917.441 9349358.55969

Energy
6000000
May-13 675731.08 9502757.39729
Jun-13 715655.06 10035738.312 4000000
Jul-13 767573.68 10681488.8412 2000000
Aug-13 748404.88 10234399.5756
0
Sep-13 732673.29 10246823.4947 600000 620000 640000 660000 680000 700000
Oct-13 718846.68 10000197.3274 Total Production
Nov-13 726847.556 10365961.3912
Dec-13 737015.07 10437987.4489

Energy Drivers Fosil Fuel


X1 X2 X3 X4
Actual Energy
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
Jan-13 150991.5 107.51 476.35 1036.79 8,864,965
Feb-13 147098.84 135.03 230.91 224.84 9,018,204
Mar-13 167744.09 36.9 145.02 408.81 9,415,962
Apr-13 169326 149.723 17.82 306.938 9,349,359
May-13 168521.57 42.64 192.52 344.58 9,502,757
Jun-13 173908.36 49.64 328.73 83.78 10,035,738
Jul-13 185898.18 36.51 180.78 150.66 10,681,489
Aug-13 173551.75 50.37 167.29 770.23 10,234,400
Sep-13 174156 39.01 448.52 279.74 10,246,823
Oct-13 173191.15 57.68 93.49 322.32 10,000,197
Nov-13 188697.07 94.49 206.23 299.656 10,365,961
Dec-13 191311.99 87.73 339 244.57 10,437,987
JUMLAH 118,153,844
SELISIH
AVERAGE 9,846,154

Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy


Fossil Fuel
12000000
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Fossil Fuel
12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Actual Energy Prediction Energy

Energy Driver Non-Fossil Fuel

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
Black Liquor Bark Palmshell (CPO) Saw Dust Fibre
Jan-13 352582.01 109809.34 1905 1515.58 0
Feb-13 368651.6 127870.3 1845.61 1373.11 0
Mar-13 379366.55 141480.67 1358.1 884.93 0
Apr-13 375898.55 140915.03 1058 2245.38 0
May-13 372908.73 129142.28 1955 1623.76 0
Jun-13 384165.67 153380.68 1200 2138.2 0
Jul-13 415085.92 162803.22 920 2398.41 0
Aug-13 399864.32 171976.94 1085 938.98 0
Sep-13 392519.76 162882.03 1024 1324.23 0
Oct-13 377922.16 163238.73 2000 1821.15 0
Nov-13 406948.85 127394.5 1640 1466.76 0
Dec-13 399230.59 143665.63 598 1527.56 0
Jumlah
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Non-Fossil Fuel
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Actual Energy Prediction Energy


2013

f(x) = 13.3457170174092 x + 423629.571583064


R² = 0.922093747416253

0 620000 640000 660000 680000 700000 720000 740000 760000 780000


Total Production

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Prediction Energy
Regression Statistics
8973273.09 Multiple R 0.934098366219801
8784021.77 R Square 0.872539757774502
9755172.85 Adjusted R Square 0.799705333645645
9457822.34 Standard Error 266046.627642603
9795284.94 Observations 12
10064217.26
10471600.83 ANOVA
9881173.75 df SS
10119297.28 Regression 4 ###
9888005.55 Residual 7 495465656560
10394950.88 Total 11 ###
10569023.58
118153844.1188 Coefficients Standard Error
0.01 Intercept 3753538.01216333 1384997.85907
9,846,154 X Variable 1 36.4506428152576 7.21565998184
X Variable 2 -2853.29179170126 2208.3382718
X Variable 3 383.845448209813 612.881047376
X Variable 4 -154.408831440308 340.88996511
dan Prediction Energy
dan Prediction Energy
Y= 3753538.012 + 36.45064282 X1 - 2853.291792X2 + 383.8454482X3

LINEST
-154.408831440307 383.84544821
340.889965109938 612.881047376
0.872539757774502 266046.627643
11.9797714914425 7
3391751627112.27 495465656560
Y= 3753538.012 + 36.45064282 X1 - 2853.291792X2

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION


Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
9 10 11 12 Independent variable sensitivity > 2
Intercept tstat>2?
Energy

ossil Fuel

X6 SUMMARY OUTPUT
Actual Energy Prediction Energy
Tankos
923 8864965.22829 8742143.03 Regression Statistics
1300.6 9018204.04859 9202146.24 Multiple R
235 9415962.48625 9605882.49 R Square
0 9349358.55969 9643423.10 Adjusted R Squar
1000 9502757.39729 9405665.92 Standard Error
400 10035738.312 9887683.98 Observations
100 10681488.8412 10806335.24
0 10234399.5756 10334921.10 ANOVA
0 10246823.4947 10117185.29
200 10000197.3274 9873134.99 Regression
100 10365961.3912 10381803.23 Residual
10 10437987.4489 10153519.50 Total
118153844.111 118153844.12049
SELISIH 0.01
AVERAGE 9,846,154 9,846,154 Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4
n Prediction Energy X Variable 5
X Variable 6

Y= -1634790.8 + 26.8

#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
7 8 9 10 11 12

Prediction Energy

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REG


Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity > 2
Intercept tstat>2?
MS F Significance F
847937906778.07 11.9797714914425 0.00299697733
70780808080.002

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


2.710139938174 0.030192902988109 478538.486192 7028538 478538.486 7028537.54
5.0516020581603 0.001477165817875 19.3883182309 53.512967 19.3883182 53.5129674
-1.2920537709929 0.237356163382447 -8075.1820249 2368.5984 -8075.182 2368.59844
0.6262968154314 0.55098878872726 -1065.3879398 1833.0788 -1065.3879 1833.07884
-0.4529579842296 0.664284969080681 -960.48551006 651.66785 -960.48551 651.667847
2853.291792X2 + 383.8454482X3 - 154.4088314X4

LINEST
-2853.2917917013 36.4506428152576 3753538.01216
2208.3382717954 7.21565998184191 1384997.85907
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
36.45064282 X1 - 2853.291792X2 + 383.8454482X3 - 154.4088314X4

ITY OR REGRESSION

0.8725397577745 YES
0.0270203610871 YES
0.0000000001 YES
-0.4529579842296 NO 0.62629681543 NO -1.2920538 NO
2.710139938174 YES

MARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.9714159957423
0.9436490367841
0.8760278809249
209307.63873523
12

df SS MS F Significance F
6 3668168845507.69 611361474251 13.954938 0.00546874
5 219048438164.594 43809687633
11 3887217283672.28

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


-1634790.8000791 2139356.79767477 -0.7641506091 0.4792664 -7134182.5 3864600.92
26.899174128057 5.33127305414885 5.0455442546 0.0039482 13.1947005 40.6036478
5.6982489092114 4.62170457938303 1.2329323113 0.2724035 -6.1822209 17.5787188
126.92030053165 197.794709447069 0.64167692294 0.5493387 -381.52719 635.367788
102.25563148849 133.840849522012 0.76400913364 0.4793435 -241.79323 446.304488
0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0
-140.53278743792 236.203871820674 -0.5949639451 #NUM! -747.71417 466.648595

Y= -1634790.8 + 26.89917413X1 + 5.698248909X2 + 126.9203005X3 + 102.2556315X4 + 0X5 - 140.5327874X6

LINEST
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION


ssion Checks
0.943649036784057 YES
0.021257807426577 YES
bias error <0.005%? 7.97838840147317E-11 YES
endent variable sensitivity > 2 -0.594963945149093 NO #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.76400913
ept tstat>2? 1.23293231130148 NO
pper 95.0%
5.05160206 NO

Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


-7134182.5 3864600.92
13.1947005 40.6036478
-6.1822209 17.5787188
-381.52719 635.367788
-241.79323 446.304488
0 0
-747.71417 466.648595

- 140.5327874X6

NO 0.64167692 NO
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Energy (G/J)
Total Production (Ton)
Jan-14 808454.36 11282627.9831236 14000000
Feb-14 745501.87 10208479.6972878 12000000 f(x) = 14.35
Mar-14 R² = 0.9270
854064.02 12028044.4649238 10000000
Apr-14 778071.81 11298326.9862645 8000000

Energy
May-14 742651.94 10890535.9651739 6000000
Jun-14 700936.117 10471914.8077689 4000000
Jul-14 846556.77 12554782.304051
2000000
Aug-14 880049.75 12505777.1400682
0
Sep-14 768699.357 11085588.0433278 600000 650000
Oct-14 761755.514 11204038.1510135
Nov-14 671241.05 9581976.82035393
Dec-14 640012.9 8929128.35849103

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
Jan-14 201421.03 115.54 187.19 187.11
Feb-14 169863.92 101.29 211.86 516.74
Mar-14 224778.57 147.62 335.53 371.7
Apr-14 220859.65 229.92 228.63 175.58
May-14 222543.93 57.18 374.36 143.67
Jun-14 227042.29 71.88 100.34 258.227
Jul-14 228173.89 39.65 127.81 322.92
Aug-14 227188.51 50.74 662.95 126.04
Sep-14 226586.93 259.4 302.26 259.927
Oct-14 223031.01 185.77 476.75 214.324
Nov-14 165614.55 125.7 58.35 385.74
Dec-14 118448 194.56 176.32 287.65
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy


Non-Fossil Fuel
14000000

12000000

10000000
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Non-Fossil Fuel
14000000

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Actual Energy Prediction Energy

Energy Driver Non-Fossil Fuel

X1 X2 X3 X4
Black Liquor Bark Palmshell (CPO) Saw Dust
Jan-14 446229.72 158130.28 500 1683.49
Feb-14 389400.66 183120.62 600 1636.78
Mar-14 420474.03 205843.32 600 1513.25
Apr-14 398651.5 155151.31 500 2225.22
May-14 363414.7 153419.28 350 2298.82
Jun-14 317409.6 153435.17 200 2368.61
Jul-14 437934.19 177057.66 200 2688.03
Aug-14 452744.33 195875 600 2802.18
Sep-14 399592.51 137235.37 1893 2569.96
Oct-14 418273.82 116254.62 1190.05 2129.17
Nov-14 408185.02 93254.53 1120 2497.16
Dec-14 419412.4 96643.57 70.5 2379.9
Jumlah

Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy


Non-Fossil Fuel
15000000
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Non-Fossil Fuel
15000000

10000000

5000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1

Actual Energy Prediction Energy


2013
14000000
12000000 f(x) = 14.3551476298983 x + 219.835260281096
R² = 0.927023817900273
10000000
8000000
Energy

6000000
4000000
2000000
0
600000 650000 700000 750000 800000 850000 900000
Total Production

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics


11,282,628 10,730,116.00 Multiple R 0.86678286384882
10,208,480 10,454,531.21 R Square 0.751312533061961
12,028,044 11,660,299.11 Adjusted R Square0.609205409097368
11,298,327 10,976,494.27 Standard Error 684177.43831235
10,890,536 11,613,976.00 Observations 12
10,471,915 11,361,520.98
12,554,782 11,581,924.08 ANOVA
12,505,777 12,196,515.43 df
11,085,588 11,262,873.04 Regression 4
11,204,038 11,585,478.37 Residual 7
9,581,977 9,892,678.92 Total 11
8,929,128 8,724,813.36
132,041,221 132041220.772106 Coefficients
0.05 Intercept 5792471.65626137
11,003,435 11,003,435 X Variable 1 23.1916846946947
X Variable 2 -2273.70229816235
X Variable 3 1665.52657911913
X Variable 4 1161.26857233459
iction Energy Y= 5792471.66 + 23.1916
iction Energy

1161.26857233458
2207.65948910143
0.751312533061961
5.28694489130013
9899249541280.95

Y= 5792471.66 + 23.1916

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REG


Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
8 9 10 11 12 Cvrmse<0.2?
ergy Prediction Energy Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity > 2
Intercept tstat>2?

r Non-Fossil Fuel

X5 X6 Prediction
Actual Energy
Fibre Tankos Energy
0 0 11282627.983124 11,278,053.14
0 50 10208479.697288 11,037,454.28
0 0 12028044.464924 11,701,365.93
0 50 11298326.986265 11,097,624.53
0 50 10890535.965174 10,765,723.56
0 50 10471914.807769 10,347,934.26
0 12.62 12554782.304051 12,293,986.95
0 0 12505777.140068 12,832,906.42
0 0 11085588.043328 10,949,791.88
0 0 11204038.151014 10,519,418.42
0 0 9581976.8203539 10,294,367.44
0 2400 8929128.358491 8,922,593.89
132041220.72185 132041220.7061
SELISIH 0.02
AVERAGE 11,003,435 11,003,435

iction Energy
iction Energy

8 9 10 11 12

nergy
SS MS F Significance F
9899249541281 2474812385320.23 5.2869448913 0.02783855
3276691369670 468098767095.65
1.3175941E+13

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
1841394.06346 3.14569910440029 0.01624933408 1438266.6 10146677 1438266.6 10146677
6.89563363848 3.36324200364821 0.01203088766 6.88610216 39.4972672 6.88610216 39.4972672
2890.427914 -0.78663172575691 0.45729723805 -9108.4782 4561.07364 -9108.4782 4561.07364
1428.5535119 1.1658832275066 0.28184470959 -1712.4657 5043.51886 -1712.4657 5043.51886
2207.6594891 0.526017974269778 0.61512365079 -4059.0166 6381.55374 -4059.0166 6381.55374
Y= 5792471.66 + 23.1916847X1 - 2273.7023X2 + 1665.52658X3 + 1161.26857X4
LINEST
1665.52657912 -2273.70229816235 23.1916846947 5792471.66
1428.5535119 2890.42791399565 6.89563363848 1841394.06
684177.438312 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3276691369670 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Y= 5792471.66 + 23.1916846946947X1 -2273.70229816235X2 + 1665.52657911913X3 + 1161.26857233459X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

0.751312533061961 YES
0.062178531937714 YES
error <0.005%? 0.0000000004 YES
nt variable sensitivity > 2 0.5260179743 NO 1.16588323 NO -0.7866317 NO
3.14569910440029 YES

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.920851048832273
R Square 0.847966654135498
Adjusted R Squa0.665526639098094
Standard Error 632958.510742178
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 1.1172759E+13 1.8621E+12 4.64792033 0.05647031
Residual 52003182381605 4.0064E+11
Total 11 1.3175941E+13

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


Intercept 2604515.63631286 2493396.44764 1.04456539 0.34407125 -3804964 9013995.25
X Variable 1 10.5418153437343 5.50359497103 1.91544171 0.11359069 -3.6056259 24.6892566
X Variable 2 17.439094077198 7.73071208697 2.25581989 0.07373695 -2.433334 37.3115221
X Variable 3 -97.666037298547 494.15590635 -0.1976422 0.85110883 -1367.9342 1172.60216
X Variable 4 748.831527256665 475.922350801 1.57343215 0.17642992 -474.56582 1972.22888
X Variable 5 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0
X Variable 6 -651.635343466422 410.505046999 -1.5873991 #NUM! -1706.8722 403.601474

Y= 2604515.636 + 10.54181534X1 + 17.43909408X2 - 97.6660373X3 + 748.8315273X4 + 0X5 - 651.635343

LINEST
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION


Regression Checks
R2>0.75? 0.84796665414 YES
Cvrmse<0.2? 0.05752371939 YES
Mean bias error <0.005%? 0.0000000001 YES
Independent variable sensitivity > 2 -1.5873991032 NO #VALUE! #VALUE! 1.57343215
Intercept tstat>2? 2.25581988839 YES
pper 95.0%
233459X4

3.363242 NO

Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


-3804964 9013995.25
-3.6056259 24.6892566
-2.433334 37.3115221
-1367.9342 1172.60216
-474.56582 1972.22888
0 0
-1706.8722 403.601474

X4 + 0X5 - 651.6353435X6

NO -0.1976422 NO
Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Energy (G/J)
Total Production (Ton)
Jan-15 215787.337 10420537.4787017 12000000
Feb-15 191313.72 10061903.4522646 10000000
Mar-15 f(x) = 7.228
208850.5 10987882.7621415 R² = 0.0024
8000000
Apr-15 192325.09 10483647.1969607

Energy
May-15 6000000
204521.534 10419769.1234559
Jun-15 195630.441 9310355.35422652 4000000
Jul-15 200261.36 10843307.0920437 2000000
Aug-15 176347.88 10715348.4085493
0
Sep-15 178512.67 10381965.0489571 170000 175000 180000
Oct-15 194755.57 10975135.3130516
Nov-15 194373.83 6512233.10933699
Dec-15 195835.93 6400892.82489038

Energy Drivers Fosil Fuel


X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
Jan-15 214900.98 256.86 486.93 142.567
Feb-15 190469.58 213.88 393.96 236.3
Mar-15 207645.07 290.4 619 296.03
Apr-15 191419.36 157.84 421.55 326.34
May-15 203783.21 159.58 366.17 212.574
Jun-15 194481.36 185.82 261.56 701.701
Jul-15 199336.81 273.46 248.26 402.83
Aug-15 175680.92 313.77 222.72 130.47
Sep-15 177536.19 412.21 354.13 210.14
Oct-15 193528.06 393.67 628.43 205.41
Nov-15 193505.78 268.78 381.57 217.7
Dec-15 195089.17 206.19 301.84 238.73
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy


Fossil Fuel
12000000

10000000

8000000
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction Energy
Fossil Fuel
12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Actual Energy Prediction Energy

Energy Drivers Non Fosil Fuel

X1 X2 X3 X4
Black Liquor Bark Palmshell (CPO) Saw Dust
Jan-15 408,298 108,512 900 2,106
Feb-15 400,404 112,293 400 1,979
Mar-15 428,864 118,550 800 1,883
Apr-15 412,113 110,972 763 1,785
May-15 392,973 110,285 1,641 1,794
Jun-15 326,032 100,999 1,096 1,102
Jul-15 415,838 148,379 641 816
Aug-15 409,876 162,661 469 1,117
Sep-15 390,928 148,428 1,416 1,210
Oct-15 412,003 143,766 2,459 1,406
Nov-15 400,892 128,990 436 1,473
Dec-15 412,321 120,460 703 1,192
Jumlah
Perbandingan Actual dan Prediction E
Non-Fossil Fuel
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Actual Energy Prediction Energy


2013
12000000

10000000
f(x) = 7.22874538120566 x + 8378012.83120493
8000000 R² = 0.002486525440637
Energy

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
170000 175000 180000 185000 190000 195000 200000 205000 210000 215000 220000
Total Production

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics


10,420,537 9,909,800.38 Multiple R 0.364314207929692
10,061,903 9,526,543.18 R Square 0.132724842099439
10,987,883 10,680,208.01 Adjusted R Square -0.36286096241517
10,483,647 9,476,753.33 Standard Error 1894364.73007025
10,419,769 9,167,745.54 Observations 12
9,310,355 9,619,471.00
10,843,307 9,581,143.68 ANOVA
10,715,348 9,296,743.64 df
10,381,965 10,272,980.73 Regression 4
10,975,135 11,051,990.41 Residual 7
6,512,233 9,719,218.20 Total 11
6,400,893 9,210,379.06
117,512,977 117512977.169191 Coefficients
0.005 Intercept 6818017.71867745
9,792,748 9,792,748 X Variable 1 0.871873848516614
X Variable 2 4627.5580663851
X Variable 3 3125.39518983763
ction Energy X Variable 4 1360.29286298311

Y= 6818017.719 + 0.871873
ction Energy

1360.29286298311
4102.80232336109
0.132724842099439
0.267814051351681
3844329012667.27

Y= 681801

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR


Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
8 9 10 11 12
Cvrmse<0.2?
Energy Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity >
Intercept tstat>2?

X5 X6
Actual Energy Prediction Energy
Fibre Tankos
- 625 10,420,537 9,578,768.08
- 1,721 10,061,903 9,147,511.29
- 4,184 10,987,883 10,890,114.71
300 5,248 10,483,647 10,298,146.07
405 4,719 10,419,769 11,875,936.52
360 5,368 9,310,355 8,921,956.29
100 1,627 10,843,307 9,664,218.19
1,700 1,585 10,715,348 11,258,163.84
9,327 1,286 10,381,965 10,142,563.88
15,750 1,709 10,975,135 10,597,392.51
3,373 272 6,512,233 8,070,892.78
2,590 425 6,400,893 7,067,312.98
117512977.16458 117512977.137002
SELISIH 0.03
AVERAGE 9,792,748 9,792,748
Actual dan Prediction Energy
el

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

tual Energy Prediction Energy


SS MS F Significance F
3844329012667 961082253167 0.26781405135 0.88971212
2.5120324E+13 3588617730534
2.8964653E+13

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
14083812.6076 0.484103126665 0.64309079394 -26484907 40120943 -26484907 40120943
71.850580425 0.01213454148 0.99065687259 -169.02775 170.771499 -169.02775 170.771499
9114.69595893 0.507702954354 0.62726372022 -16925.273 26180.3892 -16925.273 26180.3892
5964.72188595 0.523980036219 0.61646822009 -10978.931 17229.7212 -10978.931 17229.7212
4102.80232336 0.33155213334 0.74993274156 -8341.293 11061.8787 -8341.293 11061.8787

818017.719 + 0.871873849X1 + 4627.558066X2 + 3125.39519X3 + 1360.292863X4


LINEST
3125.39518984 4627.558066385 0.87187384852 6818017.72
5964.72188595 9114.695958933 71.850580425 14083813
1894364.73007 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2.5120324E+13 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Y= 6818017.719 + 0.871873849X1 + 4627.558066X2 + 3125.39519X3 + 1360.292863X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

0.132724842099 NO
0.193445671358 YES
error <0.005%? 0.00000000004 YES
nt variable sensitivity > 2 0.33155213334 NO 0.52398004 NO 0.50770295 NO
0.484103126665 NO

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.838124130979
R Square 0.702452058929
Adjusted R Squa 0.345394529644
Standard Error 1312887.878046
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 2.034628E+13 3.391E+12 1.9673358 0.23736096
Residual 58618372901596 1.7237E+12
Total 11 2.8964653E+13

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


Intercept -4835630.74382 7234917.0575 -0.668374 0.53350584 -23433577 13762316
X Variable 1 -10.183144597 23.0401531732 -0.4419738 0.67696972 -69.409744 49.0434546
X Variable 2 98.64233092047 40.8826829451 2.41281452 0.06065291 -6.4499513 203.734613
X Variable 3 1879.742818324 1427.64797424 1.31667109 0.2450678 -1790.1431 5549.62877
X Variable 4 2819.842102394 1641.18338584 1.71817612 0.14640585 -1398.9541 7038.6383
X Variable 5 -240.384068111 198.0445926 -1.2137876 0.27902973 -749.4739 268.705764
X Variable 6 378.8058802003 303.522132446 1.2480338 0.26727719 -401.4226 1159.03436

Y= -4835630.744 - 10.1831446X1 + 98.64233092X2 + 1879.742818X3 + 2819.842102X4 - 240.3840681X5 + 378.805

LINEST
378.8058802 -240.384068111 2819.84210239 1879.74282 98.6423309
303.522132446 198.0445925998 1641.18338584 1427.64797 40.8826829
0.70245205893 1312887.878046 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.96733579694 5 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2.034628E+13 8618372901596 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Y= -4835630.744 - 10.1831446X1 + 98.64233092X2 + 1879.742818X3 + 2819.842102X4 - 240.3840681X5 + 378.805

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION


Regression Checks
R2>0.75? 0.70245205893 NO
Cvrmse<0.2? 0.13406735934 YES
Mean bias error <0.005%? 0.0000000002 YES
Independent variable sensitivity > 1.24803379954 NO -1.2137876 NO 1.71817612
Intercept tstat>2? 2.4128145174 YES
pper 95.0%
0.01213454 NO

Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


-23433577 13762316
-69.409744 49.0434546
-6.4499513 203.734613
-1790.1431 5549.62877
-1398.9541 7038.6383
-749.4739 268.705764
-401.4226 1159.03436

240.3840681X5 + 378.8058802X6

240.3840681X5 + 378.8058802X6

NO 1.31667109 NO
INTENTITAS ENERGI 2013

Actual Energy
JUMLAH
January 300301.77 8,864,965
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
12000000
February 316024.44 9,018,204
March 338135.301 9,415,962 10000000
April 338901.791 9,349,359 8000000
May 343471.82 9,502,757
6000000
June 360636.64 10,035,738
July 360805.77 10,681,489 4000000
August 349462.91 10,234,400 2000000
September 348587.91 10,246,823
October 0
362962.086 10,000,197 ry ry ril ly t r
ch ay ne Ju us be
November 381280.736 10,365,961 nua r ua ar Ap M Ju u g m
Ja b M A e
Fe pt
December 191983.29 10,437,987 Se
JUMLAH 118,153,844

9,846,154

INTENTITAS ENERGI 2014


Actual Energy
Jumlah
SEC (Kwh/Ton)
January 372604.68 11,282,628 14000000
February 396327.23 10,208,480
12000000
March 447127.2 12,028,044
April 10000000
444612.92 11,298,327
May 450591.877 10,890,536 8000000
June 456137.007 10,471,915 6000000
July 456692.51 12,554,782 4000000
August 455436.757 12,505,777 2000000
September 451316.371 11,085,588 0
October 390092.194 11,204,038 ry ry ch ril ay ne ly us
t
ua ua ar Ap M Ju Ju g be
November n b r M u em
285290.87 9,581,977 Ja Fe
A pt
December Se
119106.53 8,929,128
JUMLAH 4,725,336
4,725,336
393,778 11,003,435
INTENTITAS ENERGI 2015

Actual Energy
Jumlah

January 407101.057 10,420,537 SEC (Kwh/Ton


February 400164.22 10,061,903 12000000
March 401175.59 10,987,883
10000000
April 396846.624 10,483,647
May 400151.975 10,419,769 8000000
June 395891.801 9,310,355 6000000
July 376609.24 10,843,307
August 4000000
354860.55 10,715,348
September 373268.24 10,381,965 2000000
October 389129.4 10,975,135 0
November 390209.76 6,512,233 ar
y
ar
y ch ril ay ne Ju
ly
nu r u ar Ap M Ju
December 195835.93 6,400,893 Ja b M
Fe
JUMLAH 4,481,244
4,481,244
373,437 9,792,748
SEC (Kwh/Ton)

il ay ne ly t r r r r
pr M Ju Ju gus be o be be be
u em t m m
A pt Oc ve ce
Se No De

SEC (Kwh/Ton)

ril ay ne Ju
ly us
t
be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
Ap M Ju u g
em to m m
A pt Oc ve ce
Se No De

SEC (Kwh/Ton)
SEC (Kwh/Ton)

ar
y ch ril ay ne Ju
ly st be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
ar Ap M Ju u gu m to m m
M A e Oc ve ce
pt De
Se No

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