Analyzing and Modeling Rank Data

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MONOGRAPHS ON

STATISTICS AND APPLIED PROBABILITY


General Editors
D.R. Cox, D.V. Hinkley, N. Keiding, N. Reid,
D.B. Rubin and B. W. Silverman
Stochastic Population Models in Ecology and Epidemiology
M.S. Bartlett (1960)
2 Queues D.R. Cox and W.L. Smith (1961)
3 Monte Carlo Methods J.M. Hammersley and D.C. Handscomb (1964)
4 The Statistical Analysis of Series of Events D.R. Cox and P.A. W. Lewis (1966)
5 Population Genetics W.J. Ewens (1969)
6 Probability, Statistics and Time M.S. Bartlett (1975)
7 Statistical Inference S.D. Silvey (1975)
8 The Analysis of Contingency Tables B.S. Everitt (1977)
9 Multivariate Analysis in Behavioural Research A.E. Maxwell (1977)
10 Stochastic Abundance Models S. Engen (1978)
11 Some Basic Theory for Statistical Inference E.J.G. Pitman (1979)
12 Point Processes D.R. Cox and V. Isham (1980)
13 Identification of Outliers D.M. Hawkins (1980)
14 Optimal Design S.D. Silvey (1980)
15 Finite Mixture Distributions B.S. Everitt and D.J. Hand (1981)
16 Classification A.D. Gordon (1981)
17 Distribution-free Statistical Methods J.S. Mariz (1995)
18 Residuals and Influence in Regression R.D. Cook and S. Weisberg (1982)
19 Applications of Queueing Theory, 2nd edition G.F. Newell (1982)
20 Risk Theory, 3rd edition R.E. Beard, T. Pentikainen and E. Pesonen (1984)
21 Analysis of Survival Data D.R. Cox and D. Oakes (1984)
22 An Introduction to Latent Variable Models B.S. Everitt (1984)
23 Bandit Problems D.A. Berry and B. Fristedt (1985)
24 Stochastic Modelling and Control M.H.A. Davis and R. Vinter (1985)
25 The Statistical Analysis of Compositional Data J. Aitchison (1986)
26 Density Estimation for Statistical and Data Analysis B. W. Silverman
27 Regression Analysis with Applications G.B. Wetherill (1986)
28 Sequential Methods in Statistics, 3rd edition G.B. Wetherill and
K.D. Glazebrook (1986)
29 Tensor Methods in Statistics P. McCullagh (1987)
30 Transformation and Weighting in Regression R.J. Carroll and D. Ruppert (1988)
31 Asymptotic Techniques for Use in Statistics O.E. Barndoff-Nielson and
D.R. Cox (1989)
32 Analysis of Binary Data, 2nd edition D.R. Cox and E.J. Snell (1989)
33 Analysis of Infectious Disease Data N. G. Becker ( 1989)
34 Design and Analysis of Cross-Over Trials B. Jones and M.G. Kenward (1989)
35 Empirical Bayes Method, 2nd edition J.S. Maritz and T. Lwin (1989)
36 Symmetric Multivariate and Related Distributions K.-T. Fang, S. Katz and
K. W. Ng (1990)
37 Generalized Linear Models, 2nd edition P. McCullagh and J.A. Neider (1989)
38 Cyclic and Computer Generated Designs, 2nd edition J.A. John and
E.R. Williams (1995)
39 Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics C.F. Manski (1988)
40 Subset Selection in Regression A.J. Miller (1990)
41 Analysis of Repeated Measures M.J. Crowder and D.J. Hand (1990)
42 Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities P. Walley (1991)
43 Generalized Additive Models T.J. Hastie and R.J. 1ibshirani (1990)
44 Inspection Errors for Attributes in Quality Control N.L. Johnson, S. Katz and
X. Wu (1991)
45 The Analysis of Contingency Tables, 2nd edition B.S. Everitt ( 1992)
46 The Analysis of Quantal Response Data B.J. T. Morgan ( 1993)
47 Longitudinal Data with Serial Correlation: A State-Space Approach
R.H. Jones (1993)
48 Differential Geometry and Statistics M.K. Murray and J. W. Rice (1993)
49 Markov Models and Optimization M.H.A. Davies (1993)
50 Networks and Chao-Statistical and Probabilistic Aspects
O.E. Bamdorff-Nielsen, J.L Jensen and W.S. Kendall (1993)
51 Number Theoretic Methods in Statistics K.- T. Fang and Y. Wang ( 1994)
52 Inference and Asymptotics O.E. Barndorff-Nielsen and D.R. Cox (1994)
53 Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries C.D. Daykin, T. Pentikainen and
M. Pesonen (1994)
54 Biplots J.C. Gower and D.J. Hand (1996)
55 Predictive Inference: An IntroductionS. Geisser (1993)
56 Model-Free Curve Estimation M.E. Tarter and M.D. Lock (1993)
57 An Introduction to the Bootstrap B. Efron and R.J. 1ibshirani (1993)
58 Nonparametric Regression and Generalized Linear Models P.J. Green and
B.W. Silverman (1994)
59 Multidimensional Scaling T.F. Cox and M.A.A. Cox (1994)
60 Kernel Smoothing M.P. Wand and M.C. Jones (1995)
61 Statistics for Long-Memory Processes J. Beran (1995)
62 Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data M. Davidian and
D.M. Giltinan (1995)
63 Measurement Error in Non-Linear Models R.J. Carroll, D. Ruppert and
LA. Stefanski ( 1995)
64 Analyzing and Modeling Rank Data John I. Marden (1995)

(Full details concerning this series are available from the Publishers.)
Analyzing and
Modeling
Rank Data

JOHN I. MARDEN
Department of Statistics,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA

Boca Raton London New York

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Contents

Preface xi

1 Introduction 1
1.1 Rank data 1

2 Looking at Data 5
2.1 Introduction: Permutation polytopes 5
2.2 Projections of polytopes 12
2.3 Marginals 17
2.4 Pairs 19
2.5 Center, spread, and distance 21
2.5.1 Some useful distances 23
2.5.2 Estimating the center 28
2.5.3 Estimating spread, location known 30
2.5.4 Estimating spread, location unknown 31
2.5.5 Clustering: £-centers 33
2.6 Linear su bspaces 39
2.6.1 Spectral decomposition 45
2.6.2 Inversions 52
2.7 Exercises 54

3 Formal Tests of Uniformity 56


3.1 Introduction 56
3.2 Summary statistics 57
3.2.1 Projections 58
3.2.2 Probabilities 60
3.2.3 Marginals 61
3.2.4 Means 63
3.2.5 Pairs 64
3.3 lnvariance and monotonicity of distances 68
3.4 Distance from a fixed vector 73
3.4.1 Means and variances 75
vi CONTENTS
3.4.2 Exact distributions 77
3.4.3 Asymptotics as m - oo 82
3.5 One-sample diversity and concordance 86
3.6 Summary 92
3.7 Exercises 93

4 Comparing Populations of Judges 97


4.1 Introduction 97
4.2 The basic statistics:
Multivariate analysis of variance tests 98
4.3 Distances from a modal ranking 101
4.4 Concordance and diversity 104
4.5 Exercises 110

5 Overview of Models 111


5.1 Introduction 111

=
5.2 Probability models - General
5.3 Thurstonian Order statistic models
5.4 Distance-based models
112
114
115
5.5 Paired comparison models - Babington Smith 115
5.5.1 Bradley-Terry /Mallows 117
5.5.2 Mallows' models 118
5.6 Multistage models 118
5.6.1 Plackett-Luce 118
5.6.2 Free and ¢-component models 120
5. 7 Sufficient statistic models 122
5.8 Loglinear models 123
5.9 ANOVA-like models 124
5.10 Nested orthogonal contrast models 126
5.10.1 The free model 129
5.10.2 The ¢ model 129
5.10.3 Contingency table models 130
5.11 Unfolding models 132
5.12 Generalizing the models 133
5.13 Some axiomatics 134
5.13.1 Luce's choice axiom 134
5.13.2 Unidimensionality, unimodality, and consensus 136
5.14 Likelihood methods and exponential families 140
5.14.1 The likelihood function and
Fisher information 141
5.14.2 Maximum likelihood estimation 143
CONTENTS vii

5.14.3 Likelihood ratio tests 143


5.14.4 Exponential families 145
5.15 Exercises 147

6 Distance-Based Models 149


6.1 Introduction 149
6.2 Fitting the models: Known mode 149
6.2.1 Kendall 151
6.2.2 Cayley 151
6.2.3 Hamming 152
6.3 Unknown mode - Likelihood 154
6.4 Unknown mode - Bayesian 156
6.5 Asymptotics as m --+ oo 158
6.5.1 Kendall 159
6.5.2 Cayley 160
6.5.3 Hamming 161
6.5.4 Maximum 161
6.6 Assessing fit 162
6.6.1 Kendall 163
6.6.2 Hamming and Cayley 165
6.7 Exercises 168

7 Babington Smith, Phi-Models, and Inversions 170


7.1 Introduction 170
7.2 Babington Smith 172
7.3 Contrast 4J models 175
7.4 Bradley-Terry/Mallows and Spearman's
distance models 178
7.4.1 Bradley-Terry /Mallows 179
7.4.2 Submodels of Bradley-Terry /Mallows,
including Spearman 180
7.4.3 Between Babington Smith and
Bradley-Terry /Mallows 180
7.5 Basic results for orthogonal contrast 4J models 182
7.6 Details for the orthogonal contrast 4J models 184
7.6.1 Preliminaries 185
7.6.2 Null distribution for Kendall 187
7.6.3 Non-null distribution for Phi, Mallows,
and Kendall 189
7.6.4 Decomposing Mallows' 4J model;
Proofs of Theorems 6.3 and 6.5 191
viii CONTENTS

7.7 Examples of orthogonal contrast models 193


7.8 Mixed orthogonal contrastjBabington Smith
models 198
7.9 Multistage models and patterns of ties 200
7.9.1 Patterns of ties 200
7.9.2 Mallows' ~ model for tied ran kings 202
7.9.3 Multistage models: ~-component 203
7.10 Free models and contingency tables 204
7.11 Inversion models 209
7.12 Exercises 211

8 Plackett-Luce, Logistic, and Vase Models 213


8.1 The first-order model 213
8.2 Extended vase models: No interaction 217
8.3 Extended Plackett models 219
8.4 q-permutations 226

9 Marginal and ANOVA-Type Loglinear Models 228


9.1 Introduction 228
9.2 Submodels of the Marginals model 228
9.3 Extended Marginals models 232
9.4 ANOVA-type loglinear models 234
9.5 Paired and multisample models 236

10 Latent Class and Unfolding Models 243


10.1 Introduction 243
10.2 Latent class models 244
10.3 The EM algorithm for latent class models 247
10.4 Unidimensional unfolding models 251
10.5 Exercise 258

11 Tied, Partial, and Incomplete Rankings 259


11.1 Introduction 259
11.1.1 Tied rankings 261
11.1.2 Rankings of subsets:
Balanced incomplete block designs 261
11.2 Descriptive statistics 263
11.3 Tests of uniformity 265
11.4 Tied rankings 269
11.4.1 Marginals and Means 270
11.4.2 Pairs 271
CONTENTS ix

11.4.3 Distances 273


11.5 Rankings of subsets:
Balanced incomplete block designs 275
11.5.1 Marginals and Means;
Hamming's and Spearman's distances 275
11.5.2 Pairs and Kendall's distance 278
11.6 Comparing samples 280
11.7 Models 281
11.7.1 Thurstonian models 283
11.7.2 Plackett-Luce and vase models 284
11.7.3 Babington Smith 284
11.7.4 Orthogonal contrast ¢models:
Tied rankings 286
11.7.5 Orthogonal contrast ¢models: Subsets 287
11.7 .6 Exponential family models 288
11.7.7 Coefficients and comparing populations 289
11.8 Exercises 291

12 Appendix 294
12.1 Some linear algebra 294
12.1.1 Eigenvalues and eigenvectors 295
12.2 Means and covariances for vectors and matrices 296
12.2.1 Definitions 296
12.2.2 Kronecker products 297
12.3 Normality and chi-squares 299
12.4 Some asymptotics 300
12.4.1 Central limit theorem 300
12.4.2 Convergence in probability 301

Bibliography 302

Author Index 311

Subject Index 314


Preface

Ranking has always been an integral part of statistics, both in


nonparametric analysis and in the analysis of judges' rankings of
objects. Myriad data-analytic techniques and probability mod-
els have been developed over the years. The present volume at-
tempts to summarize and unify much of the statistical work on
rank data. The state of the art circa 1950 is summarized in the
"Symposium on Ranking Methods" conducted by the Royal Sta-
tistical Society. (See Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B,
1950, Volume 12, pages 153-191.) The papers and discussions
address the fundamental the questions: How best to elicit rank-
ings? What goes on in a ranker's mind? How does a statistician
model and analyze such highly structured data? Since then, high
points include Luce's work on choice (Individual Choice Behavior,
1959), Arrow's on combining rankings (Social Choice and Individ-
ual Values, 1963), and Coombs' on unfolding models (A Theory
of Data, 1964). Critchlow's book, Metric Methods for Analyzing
Partially Ranked Data (1985), unifies an important aspect ofrank-
ing. The book by Diaconis, Group Representations in Probability
and Statistics (1988), has an amazing wealth of information and
insights, on ranking and many other subjects. Most of the proba-
bility models and statistical analyses resulting from these years of
activity gathered (with their creators) in Amherst, Massachusetts
in 1990. An AMS-IMS-SIAM Research Conference at the Univer-
sity of Massachusetts turned the spotlight on the broad range of
ranking activities. Michael Fligner and Joseph Verducci, in addi-
tion to arranging the conference, edited the collection of papers
presented in the book Probability Models and Statistical Analyses
for Ranking Data (1993). I think all participants were surprised
and delighted at the variety of work in the area.
The literature is rich with methods for analysis and modeling of
rank data. People already in the field know the basic models and
methods, but the scientific community at large has no single source
for this information. The main goal of this book is to collect and
xii PREFACE
present systematically many of the popular and useful methods. I
try to reflect the spirit of the 1950 symposium and 1990 conference.
Models and analyses should be realistic enough to make sense, but
practical, too. The objective is to gain insight into the data and
the mechanism that produced them. Beautiful models that do not
make sense and cannot be calculated with current technology are
not helpful.
The material should be accessible to anyone with a basic course
in mathematical statistics, and familiarity with linear algebra and
the basic elements of multivariate statistical analysis. The texts
by Hogg and Craig (1978) and Bickel and Doksum (1977) are suf-
ficient to understand and apply most of the results, although a
few of the proofs need more advanced material such as Lehmann
(1983), Rao (1973) and Serfling (1980). Mardia, Kent and Bibby
(1979) is an excellent introduction to multivariate analysis. To ap-
preciate the models in the book, one should have familiarity with
linear regression and analysis of variance (e.g., Weisberg, 1985) and
contingency table models (e.g., Agresti, 1990, or Bishop, Fienberg,
and Holland, 1975).
The book is quite dense. To use it as a text in a one-semester
graduate-level course, one may wish to cover about half the book.
I recommend choosing something like the following material: all of
Chapter 1; all of Chapter 2 through Section 2.5, and the beginning
of Section 2.6, leaving out Sections 2.6.1 and 2.6.2; Sections 3.1 and
3.2, Section 3.4 through 3.4.1, and Sections 3.5 and 3.6; Chapter
5 through Section 5.11, plus Section 5.14; Sections 6.1 and 6.2;
Chapter 7 through Section 7.7, but skipping Sections 7.4.2, 7.4.3,
and 7.6; Section 8.1; Sections 9.1, 9.2, and 9.4.
Many people have spurred my interest in ranking, most notably
Douglas Critchlow, Persi Diaconis, Michael Fligner, Georgia Lee
Thompson, and Joseph Verducci. Robert Bohrer, who recently
passed away, had been terrifically inspiring. I especially want to
thank Lyinn Chung for her fine work in this area, and Kyungmee
Choi, Michael Walker, Colin Mallows, and Louis Roussos for pro-
viding fascinating data. The University of Illinois deserves thanks
for granting me a sabbatical leave, as does the National Science
Foundation for support during my career. The reviewers made
many valuable comments, and 'fEX and Dra'fEX (Gurari, 1994)
helped create the typesetting and figures.
PREFACE xiii

This book is dedicated to my mother, Ann, and Phil.

John Iglehart Marden


Urbana, March 1995
CHAPTER 1

Introduction

1.1 Rank data


Humans seem to be unable to avoid ranking things. Top Five/
Ten/Twenty/Hundred lists abound: Best (Worst) Dressed, Best
Suburbs, Most Watched TV Shows, Movies, Videos, Best Foot-
ball Teams, and so on. Rankings have very serious uses as well.
Companies need to know what products consumers prefer; social
and political leaders need to know what the society values; elec-
tions need to be conducted; young people need to be drafted (?);
prospective students need to be assessed. Data consisting of rank-
ings appear in Psychology, Animal Science, Educational Testing,
Sociology, Economics, and Biology. In fact, for almost any situa-
tion where there are data it can be helpful to transform the data
into ranks. Nonparametric statistical analysis was initially based'
mainly on ranks.
This book is aimed at preference rankings. The basic unit of
analysis consists of n judges ranking a set of m objects, the set
of objects denoted by 0 = {OI.02,····0m}. The objects can be
almost anything: words, people, sports, soft drinks, ethnic groups,
styles of literary criticism, crackers, political goals, occupations.
Judges are usually people, but they can be animals or even inani-
mate sensing devices.
A full ranking of the objects assigns a complete ordering to the
objects: There is a best object, second best, ... , and finally a worst
one. The two most useful representations of a ranking are the rank
vector and the order vector. A rank vector lists the ranks given
to the objects, where "1" denotes best and "m" denotes worst. It
presumes the objects are listed in a prespecified order. An order
vector lists the objects themselves, in order from best to worst.
For example, suppose the objects are m = 4 popular soft drinks,
0 = {Coke, Pepsi, 7- Up , Sprite}, and a judge likes 7- Up best,
then Sprite, then Pepsi, then Coke. The ordering is ( 7- Up, Sprite,
2 INTRODUCTION

Table 1.1 Two representations


of the same ranking.

The Ranking The Ordering

Coke 4 7-Up 1
Pepsi 3 Sprite 2
7-Up 1 Pepsi 3
Sprite 2 Coke 4

Pepsi, Coke). What is the rank vector? It depends on the listed


order of the drinks. If this list is taken as in the first column
of Table 1.1, i.e., Coke, Pepsi, 7-Up, Sprite, then the ranking is
(4, 3, 1, 2). (We will sometimes write it 4312.) As in the last two
columns of Table 1.1, the ordering is the listing of the objects for
which the rankings are in the order 1, 2, ... , m. Whichever way is
chosen, the basic idea is to match each integer from 1, ... , m with
an object.
Abstractly, the objects themselves will be identified with inte-
gers, so that both rankings and orderings will be permutations of
the first m integers. Through bitter experience, I know how easy
it is to confuse rankings and orderings. To alleviate some of the
confusion, rankings will generally be called "y" (or maybe ".:z:" or
"z"), and will reside in the space

Sm ={Permutations of the Ranks {1, 2, ... , m} }, {1.1)

whereas orderings will generally be called "w" and reside in the


space

Tm ={Permutations of the Objects {1, 2, ... , m} }. (1.2)

For either, there needs to be an a priori identification of the objects


with the integers.
We will typically be dealing with a sample of n rank vectors:

Y(1) , •.. ,y(n) E S m• {1.3)


1.1 RANK DATA 3

What does one do with such rank data? Chapter 2 takes a data-
analytic approach. Rank data are multivariate data, the objects
representing the variables; hence any multivariate method can be
applied to the rank data. Means, standard deviations, histograms,
box plots, cluster analyses, multidimensional scaling, factor anal-
ysis, etc., all have potential to provide insight into the data. For
example, simple statistics such as the number of judges who rank
a particular object as first, or the number who prefer one object
to another, arise naturally.
Since rank data are so highly structured, methods that respect
the peculiarities of rank data can be especially useful. Our funda-
mental structure is the "permutation polytope" created by plotting
the rank vectors in Euclidean space, then connecting the points.
Thompson (1993a,b) represents a set of ranking data on the poly-
tope by placing a ball at each ranking, where the radius of the ball
is indicative of the frequency of that ranking in the sample. Much
of Chapter 2 is involved with trying to visualize (or numericize)
these multidimensional plots. Distances defined on Sm or Tm allow
defining the center and spread of a data set, and finding clusters
of judges. In the final section of Chapter 2, we consider functions
on Sm as vectors in m!-dimensional space, and try to decompose
them by projecting onto interesting subspaces. The popular de-
scriptive statistics fit into this framework. Diaconis (1988, 1989)
develops a spectral analysis along these lines, decomposing frequen-
cies into components based on the number of rankings with each
object attaining each rank, or each pair of objects attaining each
pair ofranks, etc. McCullagh (1993a) introduces inversions, which
similarly decompose the data, but into factors based on paired
comparisons of objects, triples of objects, etc.
Along with descriptions, a good statistician wants to be careful
not to see structure in the data that is basically just random varia-
tion. Chapter 3 provides some tools, mainly for testing whether the
uniform distribution is tenable. (Under the uniform distribution,
all rankings have the same probability.) The statistics in Chapter
2 are turned into formal test statistics. In addition, concordances
based on distance measures prove to be very useful. Chapter 4
continues by comparing groups of judges.
Modeling begins in Chapter 5. Some models arise from theoret-
ical constructs, some from experimental methods, and others from
attempts to find a simple description of the population of rankers.
The basic models are summarized, including those named after
4 INTRODUCTION

Thurstone, Babington Smith, Bradley, Terry, Mallows, Plackett,


and Luce. Many of the models are built, either on purpose or by
happenstance, on the statistics in Chapters 2 and 3. Chapters 6
through 10 plunge more deeply into the models, finding specializa-
tions and generalizations, and methods for assessing fit.
Partial rankings, incomplete rankings, and tied rankings chal-
lenge the material up to Chapter 11. Rank data commonly arrive
in form different than n complete rankings of m objects. It may
be impractical to have every judge assess every object, so that
the experiment will present different judges with different subsets
of objects to rank. Often, people are asked to list only their fa-
vorite q out of m rankings. (Such partial rankings are called "q-
permutations" by Silverberg, 1980.) For example, in ranking col-
lege football teams, the judges are not expected to list all hundreds
or thousands of college teams, but just their top 25, or a similar
number. Judges are also wont to not provide full ranks even when
asked. For example, when the American Psychological Association
voted for President in 1980, the ballots asked for a complete rank-
ing of the candidates, but most people provided only their top one,
two, or three candidates. See Diaconis (1988, 1989). When ana-
lyzing such data, some models adapt well to some types of partial
rankings, but none adapt well to all types, and some to no types.
Rank data have dose connections with many other areas of
statistics. Nonparametric analysis makes heavy use of ranks. See
Gibbons and Chakraborti (1992). Paired-comparison analysis uses
data in the form of pairwise comparisons of several objects or treat-
ments, rather than complete rankings. See David (1988). Ordinal
analysis deals with variables whose values are given only on an
ordered scale. For example, a question on a survey may be "How
important is it for the government to fund education?" The answers
are chosen among the ratings very important, somewhat important,
slightly important, not important at all. There is a definite order to
the possible answers, but no obvious numerical scale. See Agresti
(1984).
The models and exploratory techniques covered in this book are
meant to be building blocks. Rankings may be only a part of the
data, or may be collected in complicated designs. The hope is that
students and researchers will use this book as a starting point for
further explorations.
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