PNC Infratech (PNCL IN) : Q3FY21 Result Update
PNC Infratech (PNCL IN) : Q3FY21 Result Update
PNC Infratech (PNCL IN) : Q3FY21 Result Update
Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | Reco Execution remains strong with revenue growth of 8.6%YoY/ 25.5% QoQ and
sustained EBITDAM of 13.5% (PLe 13%).
Change in Estim ates
Current Previous Strong order inflow of Rs78bn in YTDFY21, thereby taking order book to
FY22 E FY23 E FY22 E FY23E
Rating BUY BUY ~Rs180bn (4.1x TTM revenues) and strengthening revenue visibility.
Target Price 295 219
Sales (Rs. m)
% Chng.
62,864
-
69,958
-
62,864 69,958
Company expects AD for all new projects (land availability at 80 -90%) by Mar-
EBITDA (Rs. m) 8,958 9,969 8,958 9,969 Apr’21 leading to entire OB moving into execution.
% Chng. - -
EPS (Rs.) 20.5 22.0 20.5 22.0
% Chng. - -
PNC Infratech (PNCL) reported strong set of numbers with revenues in line
with estimates at Rs13.2bn while EBITDAM coming in at 13.5%. Despite
Key Financials - Standalone pandemic, the company saw massive ~Rs78bn of order inflows in YTDFY21
Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E and expects further orders of ~Rs20bn in 4Q (given strong bid pipeline). Toll
Sales (Rs. m) 48,779 49,581 62,864 69,958 collection across the portfolio grew 22% YoY in 3Q and expects PCOD in 3 -4
EBITDA (Rs. m) 7,643 6,768 8,958 9,969
projects (by 4QFY21), to further boost toll revenues. With labour availability
Margin (%) 15.7 13.7 14.3 14.3
PAT (Rs. m) 4,603 3,680 5,250 5,638 at 100% pre-covid level and construction activity to commence in 6 newly
EPS (Rs.) 17.9 14.3 20.5 22.0 awarded projects (AD expected in Mar-Apr’21), execution momentum is
Gr. (%) 41.7 (20.0) 42.6 7.4
DPS (Rs.) 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 expected to remain strong, going ahead.
Yield (%) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
RoE (%) 19.7 13.5 16.7 15.4 PNCL continues to be one of our preferred picks in road infra space given its
RoCE (%) 23.8 17.9 20.0 18.7
1) healthy order book (~Rs180bn including recently bagged projects), 2)
EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.7 9.3 7.0 6.1 stellar execution pace and most projects getting completed within stipulated
PE (x) 13.7 17.1 12.0 11.2 time, 3) stable EBITDA margins (14-15%) and 4) low debt-equity. On the back
P/BV (x) 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6
of robust 9MFY21 numbers and revised guidance by management, we have
revised our earnings estimate downwards for FY21 by 2.6%; while keeping
Key Data PNCI.BO | PNCL IN FY22E/FY23E estimates largely unchanged. At CMP, the stock trades at a P/E
52-W High / Low Rs.268 / Rs.80
of 17.1x/12x on FY21E/FY22E EPS and is trading at an EV of 9.3x/7x
Sensex / Nifty 50,732 / 14,924
Market Cap Rs.63bn/ $ 862m FY21E/FY22E EBITDA. We roll over to FY23 estimates and maintain BUY
Shares Outstanding 257m
3M Av g. Daily Value Rs.468.04m rating on the stock with revised SoTP based TP of Rs295 (earlier Rs219).
Shareholding Pattern (%) Strong execution with resilient margins: PNCL’s revenues came in at Rs13.2bn,
Promoter’s 56.07 up 8.6% YoY (largely in line with our estimates of Rs13.4bn) on the back of labour
Foreign 5.82 force back to pre-covid level and consequent strong execution levels in its HAM &
Domestic Institution 23.81
Public & Others 14.30 large ticket size EPC projects . EBITDA margins come in at 13.5% above our
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -
estimates of 13%. Adj PAT grew 33.7% to Rs1,032mn (above PLe of Rs939mn)
because of better operating margins, higher other income at Rs243mn (PLe
Stock Performance (%)
Rs172mn), finance cost down 30% QoQ to Rs153mn (PLe Rs291mn) and lower
1M 6M 12M
Absolute 32.5 91.3 23.8 depreciation cost at Rs282mn (down 14% YoY).
Relativ e 26.5 42.0 0.4
Healthy order book; Sharp uptick in order inflows: PNCL’s order book as at
Viral Shah 3QFY21 stands at Rs98.5bn (excluding 4 HAM, 2 EPC and 3 irrigation projects
viralshah@plindia.com | 91-22-66322250
worth over Rs80bn which are recently awarded/ AD is pending). Including these
Shiv ang Joshi projects, order-book-to-sales came 4.1x trailing revenues, giving comfortable
shivangjoshi@plindia.com | 91-22-66322391
revenue visibility for next 2-3 years. With land availability at 80-90%, company
expects to receive AD in 4 HAM and 2 EPC projects by Mar-Apr’21.
February 5, 2021 1
PNC Infratech
Exhibit 1 : Quarterly Financials (Standalone): Strong execution lead to higher revenues with sustained margins
YoY gr. QoQ gr. YoY gr.
Y/e March (Rs m n) Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 9MFY21 9MFY20
(%) (%) (%)
Revenue 12,180 11,579 9,053 10,535 13,224 8.6 25.5 32,811 37,200 (11.8)
Total Revenues 12,180 11,579 9,053 10,535 13,224 8.6 25.5 32,811 37,200 (11.8)
Expenditure 10,468 10,016 7,855 9,114 11,439 9.3 25.5 28,408 31,120 (8.7)
as % of sales 85.9 86.5 86.8 86.5 86.5 86.6 83.7
Consumption of RM 8,460 8,225 6,552 7,498 9,231 9.1 23.1 23,280 25,484 (8.6)
as % of sales 69.5 71.0 72.4 71.2 69.8 71.0 68.5
Employee Cost 853 623 437 655 924 8.2 41.1 2,015 2,028 (0.6)
as % of sales 7.0 5.4 4.8 6.2 7.0 6.1 5.5
Other expenditure 1,154 1,168 866 962 1,285 11.3 33.6 3,112 3,608 (13.7)
as % of sales 9.5 10.1 9.6 9.1 9.7 9.5 9.7
EBITDA 1,712 1,563 1,198 1,421 1,785 4.3 25.6 4,404 6,080 (27.6)
Depreciation 326 324 270 272 282 (13.7) 3.5 824 940 (12.4)
EBIT 1,386 1,240 928 1,149 1,504 8.5 30.9 3,580 5,140 (30.4)
Other Income 144 159 191 148 243 69.0 63.9 582 725 (19.8)
Interest 401 316 253 218 153 (62.0) (30.0) 623 828 (24.7)
PBT 1,128 1,083 866 1,079 1,594 41.3 47.7 3,538 5,038 (29.8)
Total Tax 356 322 265 386 562 57.6 45.6 1,213 1,195 1.5
Adjusted PAT 771 761 601 693 1,032 33.7 48.9 2,326 3,842 (39.5)
(Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 NA
PAT after MI 771 761 601 693 1,032 33.7 48.9 2,326 3,842 (39.5)
Extra ordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0
Reported PAT 771 761 601 693 1,032 33.7 48.9 2,326 3,842 (39.5)
Adjusted EPS 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.7 4.0 33.7 48.9 9.1 15.0 (39.5)
bps bps bps
EBIDTA 14.1 13.5 13.2 13.5 13.5 (55.7) 1.2 13.4 16.3 (292.2)
EBIT 11.4 10.7 10.2 10.9 11.4 (0.6) 46.7 10.9 13.8 (290.6)
EBT 9.3 9.3 9.6 10.2 12.1 279.1 181.1 10.8 13.5 (275.8)
PAT 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.8 146.8 122.6 7.1 10.3 (324.1)
Effective Tax rate 31.6 29.7 30.6 35.8 35.3 365.5 (52.6) 34.3 23.7 1054.5
Source: Company, PL; Note: YoY numb ers are not comparable as 2QFY20’s revenues include Rs1,095mn towards arb itration claim
received and Rs355mn interest on arb itration claim
Source: Company, PL
February 5, 2021 2
PNC Infratech
With bids already submitted for Rs150bn highway projects (40% EPC,
60% HAM), company targets further order inflows of Rs20bn in FY21E.
Land acquisition for new highway projects (4 HAM & 2 EPC) stands at 80 -
90% & company expects to receive AD in all projects by Mar-Apr'21.
Toll revenues from its BOT projects witnessed 22% YoY growth in 3QFY21.
Finance cost during the quarter came down 30% QoQ as the company
repaid high interest bearing Mobilization advance pertaining to Mumbai
Nagpur project.
With new projects bagged in irrigation/ water supply sector, the company plans
higher Capex of Rs2bn in FY21E (of which Rs500-550mn in 4Q) vs earlier
guidance of Rs1.25bn and Rs750-1,000mn in FY22E.
February 5, 2021 3
PNC Infratech
Financials
Incom e Statement (Rs m ) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m )
Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Net Interest 1,144 1,001 1,316 1,685 Net Def erred tax assets 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215
Other Income 885 744 943 1,049 Other Non-Current Assets 1,850 1,951 2,340 2,751
Effective tax rate (%) 24.8 31.0 25.2 25.2 Cash & Bank Balance 7,401 4,702 6,861 10,064
Other Current Assets 1,610 1,788 2,145 2,522
Profit after tax 4,603 3,680 5,250 5,638 Total Assets 42,888 49,436 58,789 68,726
Minority interest - - - -
Share Prof it f rom Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 513 513 513 513
Adjusted PAT 4,603 3,680 5,250 5,638 Other Equity 24,953 28,449 33,436 38,792
YoY gr. (%) 41.7 (20.0) 42.6 7.4 Total Networth 25,466 28,962 33,949 39,305
Margin (%) 9.4 7.4 8.4 8.1
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings 3,266 4,766 6,266 7,766
YoY gr. (%) 41.7 (20.0) 42.6 7.4 Other non current liabilities 1,352 - - -
Total Comprehensiv e Income 4,603 3,680 5,250 5,638 Trade pay ables 4,675 5,434 6,028 6,708
Equity Shares O/s (m) 257 257 257 257 Other current liabilities 9,344 11,489 13,760 16,161
EPS (Rs) 17.9 14.3 20.5 22.0 Total Equity & Liabilities 42,888 49,436 58,789 68,726
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research
February 5, 2021 4
PNC Infratech
Less Financial Other Income 885 744 943 1,049 BVPS 99.3 112.9 132.3 153.2
Add. Other 1,144 1,001 1,316 1,685 FCF 28.8 (8.7) 10.5 20.2
Op. prof it bef ore WC changes 8,528 7,512 9,901 11,018 DPS 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1
Net cash from Op. activities 8,314 (1,490) 4,439 6,928 ROIC 24.7 14.5 18.4 18.2
Capital expenditures (932) (750) (1,750) (1,750) RoE 19.7 13.5 16.7 15.4
Net Cash from Invt. activities (2,556) (1,523) (2,202) (3,258) Net Working Capital (Day s) 12 59 61 59
Div idend paid (276) (184) (262) (282) P/B 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6
Interest paid (1,144) (1,001) (1,316) (1,685) P/CEPS 10.7 12.9 9.2 8.5
Others 450 - - - EV/EBITDA 7.7 9.3 7.0 6.1
Net cash from Fin. activities (1,452) 315 (78) (467) EV/Sales 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9
Net change in cash 4,306 (2,699) 2,159 3,203 Div idend Y ield (%) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Free Cash Flow 7,383 (2,240) 2,689 5,178 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research
February 5, 2021 5
PNC Infratech
(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
225
1 07-Jan-21 BUY 219 176
Jul - 20
Aug - 18
Aug - 19
Feb - 19
Feb - 20
Feb - 18
Jan - 21
7 07-Apr-20 BUY 205 94
8 06-Feb-20 BUY 264 196
February 5, 2021 6
PNC Infratech
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