7.

Probability

Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690

Spring 2011

Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability

7.1 Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events
Terminology
Experiment: An experiment is an activity with observable results.
The results of the experiment are called the outcomes of of the
experiment. Tossing a coin and observing whether it falls heads or
tails is an example of an experiment with outcomes Head and Tail.

Sample Point: An outcome of an experiment.

Sample Space: The set consisting of all possible sample points of
an experiment.
Event: A subset of a sample space of an experiment.
Union of Two Events: The union of two events E and F is the
event E ∪ F . The event E ∪ F contains the set of of outcomes of E
and/ or F.
Intersection of Two Events: The intersection of two events E
and F is the event E ∩ F . The event E ∩ F contains the set of
outcomes common to E and F.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.1 Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events(Contd.)
Complement of an Event: The complement of event E is E c .
The event E c is the set consisting all the outcomes in the sample
space S that are NOT in E.

Example 1. Let S = {a, b, c, d, e, f } be a sample space of an

experiment and let E = {a, b}, F = {a, d, f }, and G = {a, b, c, e}
be events of this experiment. Find the events E ∪ F , F ∩ G , F c .
Solution
E ∪ F = {a, b, d, f }, F ∩ G = {a}, F c = {b, c, e}.
Mutually Exclusive Events: E and F are mutually exclusive if
E ∩ F = ∅.
Example 2. An experiment consists of rolling a pair of dice and
observing the number that falls uppermost on each die.
a. Describe an appropriate sample space S for this experiment.
b. Determine the event that the sum of the numbers falling
uppermost is less than or equal to 8.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.1 Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events(Contd.)

Example 3. Let S = {1, 2, 3} be a sample space associated with

an experiment. How many subsets of S contain 1 or 2?

Home Work: Section 7.1 on page 359 problems 7, 11, 18, 24, 27.

Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability

7.2 Definition of Probability
Suppose that in n trials an event E occurs m times. We call the
ratio mn the relative frequency of the event E after n repetitions.
If this relative frequency approaches some value P(E) as n becomes
larger and larger, then P(E) is called the empirical probability of
E. Thus, the probability P(E) of an event occurring is a measure of
the proportion of the time that the event E will occur in the long
run.
The probability of an event is a number that lies between 0 and
1, inclusive.
Let S be a finite sample space with n outcomes of an experiment;
that is,
S = {s1 , s2 , . . . , sn }
Then the events
{s1 }, {s2 }, {s3 }, . . . , {sn }
that consists of exactly one point are called the elementary, or
simple, events of the experiment.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.2 Definition of Probability(Contd.)

By assigning probabilities to each of the simple events, we obtain

the following table called a probability distribution for the
experiment. The function P, which assigns a probability to each of
the simple events, is called a probability function.

Simple Event Probability

{s1 } P(s1 )
{s2 } P(s2 )
{s3 } P(s3 )
.. ..
. .
{sn } P(sn )
The numbers P(s1 ), P(s2 ), . . . , P(sn ) have the following properties:
1. 0 ≤ P(si ) ≤ 1 i=1, 2, ..., n
2. P(s1 ) + P(s2 ) + · · · + P(sn ) = 1
3. P({si } ∪ {sj } = P(si ) + P(sj )(i 6= j) i=1, 2,..., n; j=1, 2, ..., n
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.2 Definition of Probability(Contd.)
Sample spaces in which the outcomes are equally likely are called
uniform sample spaces.
Probability of an Event in a Uniform Sample Space
If
S = {s1 , s2 , . . . , sn }
is the sample space for an experiment in which the outcomes are
equally likely, then we assign the probabilities
1
P(s1 ) = P(s2 ) = · · · = P(sn ) =
n
to each of the simple events {s1 }, {s2 }, {s3 }, . . . , {sn }.

Example 1. A pair of dice is rolled, and the number that falls

uppermost on each die is observed. Find the probability
distribution of this experiment.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.2 Definition of Probability(Contd.)
We want to find the probability P(E) of an arbitrary event E of an
experiment.
Finding the Probability of an Event E
1. Determine a sample space S associated with the experiment.
2. Assign probabilities to the simple events of S.
3. If E = {s1 , s2 , . . . , sn }, where {s1 }, {s2 }, {s3 }, . . . , {sn } are
simple events, then

P(E ) = P(s1 ) + P(s2 ) + · · · + P(sn )

If E is the empty set, ∅, then P(E)=0.

Example 2. A pair of fair dice is rolled.

(a) Calculate the probability that both the two dice show even
numbers.
(b) Calculate the probability that the sum of the numbers of the
two dice is 8.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.2 Definition of Probability(Contd.)

Example 3. One light bulb is selected at random from a lot of 120

light bulbs, of which 5% are defective. What is the probability that
the light bulb selected is defective?

Home Work: Section 7.2 on page 366 problems 9, 11, 25, 27.

Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability

7.3 Rules of Probability
Properties of the Probability Function and Their Applications

Let S be a sample space of an experiment and suppose E and F are

events of the experiment. We have the following:
Property 1. P(E ) ≥ 0 for any E.
Property 2. P(S)=1.
Property 3. If E and F are mutually exclusive (that is, only one of
them can occur or, equivalently, E ∩ F = ∅ ), then

P(E ∪ F ) = P(E ) + P(F )

Note that Property 3 may be easily extended to the case involving

any finite number of mutually exclusive events. Thus, if
E1 , E2 , . . . , En are mutually exclusive events, then

P(E1 ∪ E2 ∪ · · · ∪ En ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) + · · · + P(En )

Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability

7.3 Rules of Probability(Contd.)
Example 1. In a survey conducted to see how long people keep
their cars, 2000 automobile owners were asked how long they plan
to keep their present cars. The probability distribution of results of
the survey follow:

Years Car Is Kept, x Probability

3
0≤x <1 100
11
1≤x <3 50
9
3≤x <5 50
17
5≤x <7 100
3
7 ≤ x < 10 25
7
10 ≤ x 25
What is the probability that an automobile owner selected at
random from those surveyed plans to keep his or her present car
a. Less than 5 yr?
b. 3 yr or more?
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.3 Rules of Probability(Contd.)
Property 4. Addition Rule
If E and F are any two events of an experiment, then
P(E ∪ F ) = P(E ) + P(F ) − P(E ∩ F )
To derive this property, observe that we can write
E = (E ∩ F c ) ∪ (E ∩ F ) and F = (E c ∩ F ) ∪ (E ∩ F )
as union of disjoint sets. Then use property 3.

Example 2. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of

52-playing cards. What is the probability that it is an ace or a
spade?
Solution Let E denote the event that the card drawn is an ace and
let F denote the event that the card is a spade. Then,
4 13
P(E ) = and P(F ) =
52 52
Furthermore, E and F are not mutually exclusive events.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.3 Rules of Probability(Contd.)
In fact, E ∩ F is the event that the card drawn is the ace of
spades. Consequently,
1
P(E ∩ F ) =
52
The event that a card drawn is an ace or a spade is E ∪ F , with
probability given by
P(E ∪ F ) = P(E ) + P(F ) − P(E ∩ F )
4 13 1
= + −
52 52 52
16 4
= =
52 13
Property 5. Rule of Complements
If E is an event of an experiment and E c denotes the complement
of E, then
P(E c ) = 1 − P(E )
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.3 Rules of Probability(Contd.)
Example 3. In Example 2 what is the probability that the card
drawn is NOT an ace?
Solution Let E denote the event that the card drawn is an ace. We
know that
4
P(E ) =
52
The event the card drawn is NOT an ace is E c . Therefore,
4 48 12
P(E c ) = 1 − P(E ) = 1 − = =
52 52 13

Computations Involving the Rules of Probability

Example 4. Let E and F be two events of an experiment with
sample space S. Suppose
P(E ) = 0.6, P(F ) = 0.4, and P(E ∩ F ) = 0.2. Compute:
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.3 Rules of Probability(Contd.)

a. P(E ∪ F ) b. P(E c ) c. P(F c ) d. P(E c ∩ F )

Home Work: Section 7.3 on page 376 problems 5, 11, 25, 27, 41.

Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability

7.4 Use of Counting Techniques in Probability
Some Terminologies
Fundamental Counting Principle
In a sequence of events, the total possible number of ways all
events can performed is the product of the possible number of
ways each individual event can be performed.
Example 1: If the first can be performed in a ways, the second b
ways etc the total number of ways the event can be performed is
axbx....
Factorials
If n is a positive integer, then
n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2) . . . (2)(1)
Note that 0! = 1
Example 2: 5! = 5(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120
Combinations
A combination of n objects, arranged in groups of size r, without
repetition, and order not being important is
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.4 Use of Counting Techniques in Probability(Contd.)

n!
C (n, r ) =
(n − r )!r !

Example 3: Find all two-letter combinations of the letters ”ABC”

AB = BA, AC = CA, BC = CB
There are only C (3, 2) three two-letter combinations.
Computing the Probability of an Event in a Uniform Sample
Space
Let S be a uniform sample space and let E be any event. Then

Number of outcomes in E n(E )

P(E ) = =
Number of outcomes in S n(S)

Example 4: An unbiased coin is tossed five times. Find the

probability of the given event.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability
7.4 Use of Counting Techniques in Probability(Contd.)
a) The coin lands heads exactly once.
b) The coin lands heads at least once.
c) The coin lands heads on the first and last toss.
Example 5: Two light bulbs are selected at random from a lot of
24, of which 4 are defective. What is the probability that
a) Both of the light bulbs are defective?
b) At least 1 of the light bulbs is defective?
Example 6: Three cards are selected at random (with out
replacement) from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards. What
is the probability that
a) All the three are aces?
b) None of them is an ace?
Example 7: (The Birth Day Problem) A group of five people is
selected at random. What is the probability that at least two of
them have the same birth day?
Home Work: Section 7.4 on page 386 problems 2, 9, 21, 25, 43.
Calculus with Business Applications II Math 1690 7. Probability