AP Statistics Name: Gilbert Reyno C9D1 Date: 3/17 Period: 3

Section 9.1 Reading Guide: Significant Test… the Basics

Read pages 537 – 551.

1. What are the two types of statistical inference? Describe the goal for each type.

Confidence intervals and significance tests. Confidence intervals are used to estimate a population
parameter. A significance test is used to assess the evidence provided by data about some claim
concerning a parameter.
2. What is a significance test?

A significance test is a formal procedure for using observed data to decide between two
competing claims (also called hypotheses). The claims are often statements about a parameter, like a
population proportion p or the population mean µ.
3. What is a null hypothesis?

The claim we weigh evidence against in a statistical test is called the null hypothesis H0. Often the
null hypothesis is a statement of “no difference”.

4. What is an alternative hypothesis?

The claim about the population that we are trying to find evidence for is the alternative

hypothesis Ha.

5. “The hypotheses should express the hopes or suspicions we have before we see the data.”

6. Explain the difference between a one-sided alternative hypothesis and a two-sided

alternative hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis is one-sided if it states that a parameter is larger than the null
hypothesis value or if it states that the parameter is smaller than the null value. It is
two-sided if it states that the parameter is different from the null hypothesis value (it could
be either larger or smaller).
7. What form does the null hypothesis have?

The null hypothesis has the form H0: parameter = value.

8. What three forms does the alternate hypothesis have?

The alternative hypothesis has one of the forms Ha: parameter < value, Ha: parameter > value, or
Ha: parameter ≠ value. 

9. Hypotheses always refer to a population, not to a sample. Be sure to state H0 and Ha in terms of
population parameters.
10. “Significance tests ask if sample data give convincing evidence against the null hypothesis and in
favor of the alternate hypothesis.”
11. What question does a significance test answer? The answer comes in what form?

A significance test answers the question, “How likely is it to get a result like
this just by chance when the null hypothesis is true?” The answer comes in the form
of a probability.

12. How are statistical tests like criminal trials?

“It may help to think of a criminal trial. The defendant is “innocent until
proven guilty.” That is, the null hypothesis is innocence and the prosecution must try
to provide convincing evidence against this hypothesis and in favor of the alternative
hypothesis: guilt.”

13. In statistics, what is meant by the P-value?

The probability, computed assuming H0 is true, that the statistic (such as p̂ or x̄) would take a
value as extreme as or more extreme than the one actually observed, in the direction specified by Ha, is
called the P-value of the test.

14. If a P-value is small, what do we conclude about the null hypothesis?

Small P-values are evidence against H0 because they say that the observed result is unlikely to
occur when H0 is true.

15. If a P-value is large, what do we conclude about the null hypothesis?

Large P-values fail to give convincing evidence against H0 and in favor of Ha because they say
that the observed result is likely to occur by chance alone when H0 is true.
16. What does it mean to “reject H0”?

If our sample result is too unlikely to have happened by chance assuming H0 is true, then we’ll
reject H0 and say that there is convincing evidence for Ha.

17. What does it mean to “fail to reject H0”?

Otherwise, we will fail to reject H0 and say that there is not convincing evidence for Ha.

18. If you fail to reject H0, can you accept it?

You can never accept H0 after failing to reject it. A fail to reject H0 decision in a significance test
doesn’t mean that H0 is true.

19. Conclusions in significance tests come down to:

∙ P-value small 🡪 reject H0 🡪 convincing evidence for Ha (in context)

∙ P-value large 🡪 fail to reject H0 🡪 not convincing evidence for Ha (in context)

20. What is meant by a significance level?

A significance level argues that a result would happen less than the value of α, which argues
against the null hypothesis H0.

21. If we choose α = 0.05, we are requiring that the data give evidence against H0 so strong that it would
happen less than 5% of the time just by chance when H0 is true.

22. What does it mean if we say the result is statistically significant?

If the P-value is smaller than alpha, we say that the results of a study are statistically significant at
level α. In that case, we reject the null hypothesis H0 and conclude that there is convincing evidence in
favor of the alternative hypothesis Ha.

23. “Significant” in the statistical sense does not necessarily mean important. It means simply:
“not likely to happen just by chance.” The significance of α makes “not likely” more exact.
24. Exam Tip: What three components should the conclusion of a significance test always
include?

“The conclusion to a significance test should always include three components: (1) an
explicit comparison of the P-value to a stated significance level, (2) a decision about the null
hypothesis: reject or fail to reject H0, and (3) a statement in the context of the problem about
whether or not there is convincing evidence for Ha.”

25. Describe the two circumstances that help us determine how small a P-value should in order to have
convincing evidence against the null hypothesis.

26. What is a Type I Error?

If we reject H0 when Ha is true, we have committed a Type I error.

27. What is a Type II Error?

If we fail to reject H0 when Ha is true, we have committed a Type II error.

28. Fill in the table. Truth about the population

H0 true Ha true

Conclusion Reject H0 Type I error Correct conclusion

based on Fail to reject H0 Correct conclusion Type II error

sample

29. Which is more serious: a Type I Error or Type II Error?

Depends on the situation.

30. Suppose H0: parameter = value and Ha: parameter > value. Use the diagram on page 550 to help
you make a general diagram of the Normal curve with the following labeled on it:

∙ H0
∙ α = 0.05
∙ shaded area indicating P(Type I Error)
∙ fail to reject H0
∙ reject H0

31. What is the relationship between the significance level and the probability of Type I Error?

The significance level α of any fixed-level test is the probability of a Type I error. That is, α is the
probability that the test will reject the null hypothesis H0 when H0 is actually true. Consider the
consequences of a Type I error before choosing a significance level.

32. Extension: Probability of a Type I Error is a conditional probability. Use the conditional probability
formula from Chapter 5 to fill in the blanks.

P (Type I Error) = P(reject H0 | H0 is true) and= P(reject H0 H0 is true )/ P(H0 is true)