1.

Introduction Stockholm is growing and the demand for land in the central region as well as
public transport facilities is increasing. As a result, it has become a big challenge to plan and
build needed terminals. The municipalities demand good public transport, but this is hard to
accomplish without the extra space required. Lack of capacity is also a growing problem in
the terminals, causing security risks and quality efficiency in traffic. The Public Transport
Administration has therefore recognized the need to make an inventory of Stockholm’s bus
terminals, to identify their capacities, and to review and define the capacity of the terminals.
2. Literature review The capacity of bus stops with single and double loading areas is
important for the accessibility and reliability of public transport. Lack of capacity of the
loading area increases travel time for busses. In order to understand and evaluate the capacity
of the bus terminals, the starting point is the loading area capacity for which there is presently
no approved Swedish methodology. A model of capacity based on bus dwell time described
by “Highway Capacity Manual 2000” (TRB, 2000) has therefore been used as a starting
point. The model includes average dwell time and coefficient of variation, clearance time,
effect of traffic signals in front of the bus stop, and the probability of bus queue formation
behind the bus stop. Both HCM2000 and “Geometric Design Guide for Transit Facilities on
Highways and Streets, Chapter5 Off-Line Transit Facilities” (AASHTO, 2010) describe a
model of capacity based on bus dwell time for three key components: 1. Bus loading areas
(berths): Curbside spaces where a single bus can stop to load and unload passengers. 2. Bus
stops: Can include one or more loading areas depending on how many buses that use this bus
stop 3. Bus facilities: Roadways used by buses, may contain multiple bus stops along their
length. In the HCM2000 model bus stop capacity is dependent on the individual capacities of
the loading areas that form the bus stop, see figure 1. The number of buses that can be served
depends on the Dwell time, which represents the average amount of time a bus is stopped at
the curb to serve passenger movements, including the time required to open and close the
doors. Another important factor is the Clearance time, which represent the average of
minimum time required for one bus to accelerate out of and clear the loading area for the next
bus including any time spent waiting for a gap in traffic. The combination of these two
factors time determines the average time an individual bus occupies the loading area. The
third factor is the Failure rate defined as the probability that one bus will arrive at a loading
area while another bus already occupying it. The combination of dwell time variability and a
design failure rate provides an additional margin of time in the capacity analysis to ensure
that most buses will be able to immediately use the loading area upon arrival. (AASHTO,
2010). Fig. 1. Illustration of Bus loading areas, Stops, and Facilities (TRB, 2000). A review
of the Swedish guidelines and scientific studies shows that there is a lack of information on
how the capacity calculation should be done. However, there are some recommendations and
assessments of a bus stop capacity at on-street stops. The comments in this study have
therefore proceeded from these assessments. 1764 Azhar Al-Mudhaffar et al. / Transportation
Research Procedia 14 ( 2016 ) 1762 – 1771 2.1. Loading area capacity Recommendations and
estimations of bus stop capacity with one loading area vary from one to another of the studied
literature. Most studies limit the capacity for a loading area to 10–15 busses/hour. Variations
in arrival time and dwell time were in some cases considered indirectly by specifying the
difference in capacity depending on the number of routes served by the bus stop. Unlike other
studies HCM2000 considers how the queue risk, coefficient of variation and clearance time
affect the capacity of a bus stop. 2.1.1. Capacity of a bus stop in a terminal The studied
Swedish literature lacks models and analysis of their recommendations making it extremely
difficult to draw conclusions or to apply their results for bus stops at terminals. HCM2000
concept for terminal capacity is simply based on the sum of the capacity for all loading areas
in the terminal. If the bus loading areas are long and accommodate more than one bus, the
capacity per additional loading area drops, which means that the capacity for a bus stop with
two loading areas is lower than two independent bus stops with one loading area. 2.2.
Parameters included in the capacity calculation of bus stop capacity 2.2.1. Parameters
included in the capacity calculation for a bus stop along the line According to SKL “Better
bus stops” (SKL, 2013) consideration should be taken to dwell times, clearance times and
possible variations of arrival times in a detailed calculation of bus stop capacity. The capacity
of a bus stop depends on the time for entering as well as leaving the loading area which in
turn is influenced by the bus stop design. Curb side bus stops give shorter times. Combined
with more effective boarding and exit this can save 5–10 seconds per bus stop according to
German studies referred by Wendle, (Wendle, 1997). The bus stop capacity is also reduced if
the bus stop is located next to a pedestrian crossing or a signal controlled intersection: x
Pedestrian and bicycle crossing reduce the street capacity by 10–30%. (SKF & SRA, 1999) x
Traffic calming measures adjacent to a bus stop reduce the capacity of single loading area
with around 15% (SRA & SKF, 2004) x According to the HCM2000 traffic signals have a
major effect on the bus stop capacity. If the green time ratio (g/C) is 0.5 the bus stop capacity
is reduced by 25–37% (restated from figures), depending on the length of the dwell time.
(TRB, 2000) 2.2.2. Factors affecting bus terminal capacity One of the prerequisites for a good
functioning terminal is good design. According to “Angle Terminals” (SL, 1987 & 1988)
local traffic and environmental conditions should also be considered, e.g.: x Design of the
traffic system and bus traffic characteristics x Available space size, location and design The
possibilities to connect the terminal to the road network x Pedestrian network design and
location of target points for pedestrian traffic x Vulnerability of the surroundings to
disturbances Related to this study workshops with bus operators have been organized in
Stockholm. Some of the discussed ideas are listed below: x Angle terminals increase driving
time for buses and travel time for travelers, but may also increase traveler comfort. x
Reversing is usually perceived to be difficult and can lead to increased vehicle damage,
especially problematic in times of stress. x The berth must be wide enough and the island
beside must be long enough to cover at least the area to middle door of the bus, otherwise
boarding of prams will be difficult. Azhar Al-Mudhaffar et al. / Transportation Research
Procedia 14 ( 2016 ) 1762 – 1771 1765 3. Model for bus stop capacity calculation The
calculation of bus stop capacity is based on the American model in HCM2000 due to lack of
a Swedish model for this purpose. 3.1. The highway capacity manual (HCM) model In the
highway capacity manual HCM2000, chapter 27 (TRB, 2000) the estimated capacity for a
single bus stop is calculated as follows: ‫ ܤ‬௕௕ൌ ଷ଺଴଴ቀ೒ ಴ቁ ௧೎ାቀ೒
಴ቁ௧೏ା௓ೌ஼ೡ௧೏ (1) where: Bbb maximum number of buses per berth per hour
(buses/h) g/C effective green time per signal cycle (1.0 for a stop not at a signalized
intersection). tc clearance time between successive buses (s) td average dwell time (s) Cv
coefficient of variation of dwell times = standard deviation/mean for td and Za one tail
normal variation corresponding to probability that queues will form behind bus stop, as in
HCM2000 Exhibit 27-11 below Discussion x The equation has no term for the time it takes to
enter the bus loading area, e.g. deceleration and turning movement x The influence of traffic
jams on routes without a reserved bus lane is only considered through the clearance time
factor tc regarding bus evacuation time for abandoning the loading area. x The equation
considers the presence of downstream traffic signals, but not pedestrian crossings or speed
reduction measures. x The risk of bus queue is calculated through Za assuming normal
distribution probabilities of deviation from the mean in respect of bus dwell times, x The
effect of disturbed arrival frequency, for example due to the presence of bus platoons, is not
considered in the equation. This equation is deterministic and self-explanatory, but it does not
consider the bus arrival distribution, which cause capacity overestimation since high arrival
variance can be expected to lower bus stop capacity. Bus services in urban areas often result
in bunching of buses in platoons behind the lead bus which gets longer dwell times. The
equation should therefore be adjusted with a correction factor to better reflect public transport
conditions in large Swedish cities. 3.2. Application of the HCM model In order to adapt the
HCM model to Swedish urban conditions, field data was collected to enable estimation of a
correction factor as discussed above. 1766 Azhar Al-Mudhaffar et al. / Transportation
Research Procedia 14 ( 2016 ) 1762 – 1771 3.2.1. Data collection Field observations
including data collection at a number of bus stops were performed in Stockholm as a basis for
a more detailed analysis of the HCM2000 model. The surveys were carried out during rush
hours at the following busy bus stop locations in Stockholm: 1. Two single loading area bus
stops (Norrtull and Universities) 2. Two double loading area bus stops (Skanstull and Östra
station) 3. Four angle berths at the bus terminal in Jakobsberg. These sites were selected
based on experience from the bus service operators and assessment of a reference group,
which also was consulted to get an indication if the results of the adjusted equation are
reasonable. All the selected sites were without down-stream traffic signals. 3.2.2. Capacity
Calculation Methods Three different methods were tested for estimation of bus stop capacity
based on the collected field data: 1. Number of serviced buses at each loading area during
active periods, i.e. when at least one loading area was occupied. The capacity per active hour
was then calculated. 2. Number of serviced buses under saturated conditions defined as
observed 25% probability that the arriving bus had to queue to enter a loading area
(HCM2000 definition of practical capacity) 3. Number of serviced buses during a rush hour
period. The rates of queuing buses were different in the studied sites and mostly were below
the capacity. 3.2.3. Application of the HCM2000 model for bus stops with a single loading
area Application of HCM model was evaluated by comparing the results from the field
measurement with calculations using the HCM2000 model for the same conditions, eg, the
same rate of buses in queue. A correction factor (CF) was calculated as the ratio between
relationship between measured and HCM’s estimated capacity results