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Probability
Random Experiment:
It is an experiment which produces different results even if it is repeated
large number of times under similar conditions.
Example: Tossing a coin.

Sample Space:
All possible outcomes of a random experiment is called as sample space.
It is denoted by S. it may be in set form or in number form.
Example: (i) For tossing a coin experiment. S= {H, T}, n(S) = 2
(ii) For rolling a die S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, n(S) = 6

Event:
An event is an individual outcome or any number of outcomes of a
random experiment. It is any subset of sample space usually denoted by
A, B, C, D …. etc.

Mutually Exclusive Events:

Two events A and B are said to be “Mutually Exclusive” if they cannot
both occur together.
Example:
In tossing a coin experiment, if head occurs then tail cannot occur.
It means that Head and Tail are “Mutually Exclusive” event.

Equally likely events:

If all events have equal chance of occurrence then it is called equally
likely event.
Example:
Head and Tail are equally likely event.
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Independent and Dependent Events:

If occurrence or non-occurrence of one event that does not depend upon
occurrence or non-occurrence of other event then it is called as
“Independent event” and if it effects then the events will be said
“Dependent event”.

Combination:
A combination is any subset of “r” objects, selected without regard to
their order, from a set of “n” distinct objects. It is denoted by 𝑛𝑐 or 𝑛𝑟 .
𝑟
And
𝒏!
𝒏𝒓 = 𝒓 ! ( 𝒏−𝟏 )!

Example of Factorial:

5! = 5*4*3*2*1=20
3! =3*2*1=6
0! =1
1! = 1

Q. Write 3 Definitions of probability.

1. Classical definition:
If a random experiment can produce “n” mutually exclusive and equally
likely outcomes and if “n” out of these outcomes are considered
favorable to the occurrence of a certain event A, then the probability of
𝑚
the event A, denoted by P (A) is defined as the ratio of , symbolically.
𝑛

𝒎 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
P (A) = =
𝒏 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
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2. Relative Definition / Empirical Definition.

If a random experiment is repeated a large number of times say n, if an
event A is observed to be occurring “m” times then probability of an
event A is.
Limit
𝑚
P (A) = 𝑛 → ∞
𝑛

3. Subjective Definition.
It is a measure of strength of a person’s belief regarding the occurrence
of event A. this definition has disadvantage that 2 or more persons faced
with the same evidence may arrive at different probabilities.

QUESTIONS

Q. Two coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting?

a. All heads.
b. No head.
c. Exactly one head.
d. At least one head.

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

n (S) = 4
i. All head occurs:
Let A be the event that all heads occurs.
A = {HH}
n (A) = 1
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𝟏
P (A) =
𝟒

ii. No head occur:

Let B the event that No head occurs.
B = {TT}
n (B) = 1
𝟏
P (B) = .
𝟒

iii. Exactly one head occurs:

Let C be the event that exactly one head occurs.
C = {HT, TH}
n (C) = 2
𝟐
P (C) =
𝟒

iv. At least one head occurs:

Let D be the event that at least one head occurs.
D = {HH, HT, TH}
n (D) = 3
𝟑
P (D) =
𝟒

Q2. Example 6.7 (PAGE – 188)

Six white balls and four black balls are placed in a bag. If 6 balls are
taken from the bag, find the probability that among these selected balls 3
are white and 3 are black.
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SOLUTION:
𝟏𝟎 !
S= (𝟏𝟎
𝟔
) =
𝟔! 𝟒!

𝟏𝟎∗𝟗∗𝟖∗𝟕∗𝟔!
= 𝟔 ! 𝟒∗𝟑∗𝟐∗𝟏
= 210

Let A represent the even that 3 are white and 3 are black.
A = (𝟔𝟑)(𝟒𝟑)
n (A) = 80
𝟖𝟎 𝟖
Then P (A) = =
𝟐𝟏𝟎 𝟐𝟏

Q3 Example 6.8 (Page – 188)

An employer wishes to hire 3 people from a group of 15 applicants 8

Men and 7 Women. If he selects 3 at random, what is the probability?
i. All 3 will be Men
ii. At least one will be woman.

Solution:
n (S) = (𝟏𝟓
𝟑
) = 455 15 = 8 Men + 7 Women

i. All three will be Men:

Let A be the event that 3 selected will be men.
n (A) = (𝟖𝟑) ; as men will be selected from 8 men.
n (A) = 56
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𝟓𝟔
P (A) =
𝟒𝟓𝟓
ii. At least one will be Woman:
Let B be the event that at least one woman will
be selected.
n (B) = (𝟕𝟏) (𝟖𝟐) + (𝟕𝟐) (𝟖𝟏) + (𝟕𝟑) (𝟖𝟎)
n (B) = 196 + 168 + 35
n (B) = 399
𝒏 (𝑩)
P (B) =
𝒏 (𝑺)
𝟑𝟗𝟗
P (B) =
𝟒𝟓𝟓

LAWS OF PROBABILITY

Addition laws:
(i) P (A∪B) = P(A) + P(A) [For “M.E” events]
(ii) P (A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) [For “Not M.E” events]

Multiplication Laws:
(i) P(A∩B) = P(A) ∙ P(B) [For independent events]
(ii) P(A∩B) = P(A) ∙ P(B/A) [For dependent events]
This sign “/” is called as Given.
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Questions related to Laws:

Example 6.13 P-194
Q4. An integer is chosen at random from the first 200 positive integers.
What is the probability that the integer chosen is divisible by 6 or by 8?
Solution:

S = {1, 2, 3…200}
n (S) = 200

i. Let A represent the event that integer chosen is

divisible by 6.
𝟐𝟎𝟎
n (A) = = 33
𝟔
ii. B be the event that integer is divisible by 8.
𝟐𝟎𝟎
n (B) = = 25
𝟖
iii. (A∩B) be the event that integer chosen is
divisible by 6 and 8 both.
That digit is 24.
𝟐𝟎𝟎
n (A∩B) = =8
𝟐𝟒

P (A∪B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B)

𝟑𝟑 𝟐𝟓 𝟖 𝟓𝟎 𝟏
=
𝟐𝟎𝟎
+ 𝟐𝟎𝟎
- 𝟐𝟎𝟎
= 𝟐𝟎𝟎
= 𝟒
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Q5. A class contains 10 men and 20 women of which half the men and
half the women have brown eyes. Find the probability that a person
chosen at random is man or have brown eyes.

Solution:

Class [10 men + 20 women = 30]

Having brown eyes [5 men + 10 women = 15]

Let A be the event that a person is a man.

𝟏𝟎
P (A) =
𝟑𝟎
Let B be the event that person have brown eyes.
𝟓𝟎
P (B) =
𝟑𝟎
Let (A∪B) be the event that person is a man and have
brown eyes.
Since these are 5 men having brown eyes.
P (A∩B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B)

𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟓 𝟓 𝟐𝟎
= + - =
𝟑𝟎 𝟑𝟎 𝟑𝟎 𝟑𝟎
𝟐
P (A∩B) =
𝟑
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Q6. A drawer contains 50 bolts and 150 nuts. Half of the bolts and nuts
are rusted. If one item is chosen at random what is the probability that it
is rusted or bolt?

Solution:

Drawer [50 bolts + 150 nuts = 200]

Rusted [25 bolts + 75 nuts = 100]

Let A be the event that item selected is rusted.

𝟏𝟎𝟎
P (A) =
𝟐𝟎𝟎
Let B be the event that item is bolt.
𝟓𝟎
P (B) =
𝟐𝟎𝟎
Let (A∩B) be the event that item is rusted and it is
bolt.
𝟐𝟓
P (A∩B) =
𝟏𝟎𝟎
P (A∪B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B)
𝟏 𝟎𝟎 𝟓𝟎 𝟐𝟓
P (A∩B) = + -
𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟐𝟓
P (A∩B) =
𝟐𝟎𝟎

Q7. The probability that A will be alive in 10 years to come is 5⁄7 and B
will be alive in 10 years to come is7⁄9.
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Find the probability that:

i. Both of them will be alive.
ii. B will be alive and A will die.
iii. A will be alive and B will die.
iv. Both will die.

Solution:
̅ denotes for die. Similarly,
A denotes for Alive, 𝑨
̅ denotes for die.
B denotes for Alive, 𝑩

𝟓
P (A) = ̅) = 𝟏 - 𝟓 = 𝟐
, P (𝑨
𝟕 𝟏 𝟕 𝟕
𝟕 𝟏 𝟕 𝟐
P (B) = ̅)= - =
, P (𝑩
𝟗 𝟏 𝟗 𝟗

i. Both will be alive

P (A∩B) = P (A) ∙ P (B)
𝟓 𝟕
= ∗
𝟕 𝟗
𝟑𝟓
=
𝟔𝟑

ii. B will be alive and A will die

̅ ∩B) = P (𝑨
P (𝐀 ̅ ) ∙ P (B)
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𝟐 𝟕
= *
𝟕 𝟗
𝟏𝟒
=
𝟔𝟑

iii. A will be alive, B will die

P (A∩ 𝑩̅ ) = P (A) ∙ P (𝑩
̅)
𝟓 𝟐
= *
𝟕 𝟗
𝟏𝟎
=
𝟔𝟑

iv. Both will die

̅∩ 𝑩
P (𝑨 ̅ ) = P (𝑨
̅ ) ∙ P (𝑩
̅)
𝟐 𝟐
= *
𝟕 𝟗
𝟒
=
𝟔𝟑
Q8. A box contains 4 bad and 6 good tubes. 2 are drawn and one of them
is tested and found to be good. What is the probability that other one is
also good?

Solution:
Box [4 Bad + 6 Good = 10]
𝟒
P (bad) =
𝟏𝟎
𝟔
P (good) =
𝟏𝟎
Let A be the event that 1st item is good.
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𝟔
P (A) =
𝟏𝟎

Now since in the box there are 5 good tubes remaining

because we have checked it.
𝟓
Let (𝑩⁄𝑨) =
𝟗
Then by multiplication law:
P (A∩B) = P (A) ∙ P (𝑩⁄𝑨)
𝟔 𝟓 𝟑𝟎 𝟏
= * = =
𝟏𝟎 𝟗 𝟗𝟎 𝟑

Q9. A box contains 4 bad and 6 good tubes. 2 are selected from box.
What is the probability that both are good?

Solution:
Box [4 bad + 6 good = 10 tubes]
S = (𝟏𝟎
𝟐
) = 45

Let A be the event that 2 good tubes are selected.

n (A) = (𝟔𝟐) = 15
𝟏𝟓 𝟏
P (A) = =
𝟒𝟓 𝟑
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Q10. 12 eggs in a refrigerator, 2 are bad. From these 4 eggs are chosen
to make a cake. What are the probabilities that?
i. Exactly one is bad.
ii. At least one is bad.

Solution:
Refrigerator [2 bad + 10 good = 12 eggs]
4 are to be chosen.
S = (𝟏𝟐
𝟒
) = 495
i. Exactly one egg is bad:
Let A be the event that when 4 eggs are chosen
one is bad.
n (A) = (𝟐𝟏) (𝟏𝟎
𝟑
) = 2 * 120 = 240
𝟐𝟒𝟎
P (A) =
𝟒𝟗𝟓

ii. Let B be the event that at least one egg is bad.

n (B) = (𝟐𝟏)(𝟏𝟎
𝟑
) + (𝟐 𝟏𝟎
𝟐
)( 𝟐 )
= 2 * 120 + 1 * 90
= 240 + 90
= 330
𝟑𝟑𝟎
P (B) =
𝟒𝟗𝟓
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Bays Theorem

Statement:
If the event A1, A2… AK form a partition of sample space S, that is the
events A2 are mutually exclusive and their union is S, and if B is any
other event of S, such that it can occur only if one of the A2 occurs, then
for any 𝑖

𝑨 𝑷 (𝑨𝒊 ) ∙𝑷 (𝑩⁄𝑨 )
P ( 𝒊⁄𝑩) = 𝒊
Ʃ𝑷 (𝑨𝒊 ) ∙ 𝑷 (𝑩⁄𝑨
𝒊)

Example 6.34 (Page-213)

In a bolt factory, machines A, B, and C manufacture 25, 35 and 40
percent of the total output, respectively. Of their outputs; 5, 4 and 2
percent respectively are defective bolts. A bolt is selected at random and
found to be defective. What is the probability that the bolt came from
machine A?

Solution:
P (A) = 0.25,
P (B) = 0.35,
P (C) = 0.40
Let E represent the event that bolt is defective (D)
Then the conditional probabilities are
P (E/A) = 0.05,
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P (E/B) = 0.04,
P (E/C) = 0.02.

P (E/A)
P (A) =

P (E/B)
Event P (B) =

P (E/C)
P (C) =

Then by Bayes Theorem

𝑷 (𝑨) ∙𝑷 (𝑬⁄𝑨)
P (𝑨⁄𝑬) =
𝑷 (𝑨) ∙𝑷 (𝑬⁄𝑨)+ 𝑷 (𝑩) ∙𝑷 (𝑬⁄𝑩)+ 𝑷 (𝑪) ∙𝑷 (𝑬⁄𝑪)
(𝟎.𝟐𝟓) ∙ (𝟎.𝟎𝟓)
P (𝑨⁄𝑬) = (𝟎.𝟐𝟓)(𝟎.𝟎𝟓) + (𝟎.𝟑𝟓)(𝟎.𝟎𝟒) + (𝟎.𝟒𝟎)(𝟎.𝟎𝟐)
P (𝑨⁄𝑬) = 0.362
Where P (A/E) is the probability that defected bolt
came from machine A.