Pages From The Art of Thinking Clearly-8
Pages From The Art of Thinking Clearly-8
Pages From The Art of Thinking Clearly-8
You know the saying: ‘Live each day as if it were your last.’ It features at least
three times in every lifestyle magazine, and has a slot in every self-help manual’s
standard repertoire, too. For such a clever line, it makes you none the wiser. Just
imagine what would happen if you followed it to the letter: you would no longer
brush your teeth, wash your hair, clean the apartment, turn up for work, pay the
bills?. . .?In no time, you would be broke, sick and perhaps even behind bars.
And yet, its meaning is inherently noble. It expresses a deep longing, a desire for
immediacy. We place huge value on immediacy – much more than is justifiable.
‘Enjoy each day to the fullest and don’t worry about tomorrow’ is simply not a
smart way to live.
Would you rather receive $1,000 in a year or $1,100 in a year and a month?
Most people will opt for the larger sum in thirteen months – where else will you
find a monthly interest rate of 10% (or 120% per annum!). A wise choice, since the
interest will compensate you generously for any risks you face by waiting the
extra few weeks.
Second question: would you prefer $1,000 today cash on the table or $1,100 in
a month? If you think like most people, you’ll take the $1,000 straight away. This
is amazing. In both cases, if you hold out for just a month longer, you get $100
more. In the first case, it’s simple enough. You figure: ‘I’ve already waited twelve
months; what’s one more?’ Not in the second case. The introduction of ‘now’
causes us to make inconsistent decisions. Science calls this phenomenon
hyperbolic discounting. Put plainly, the closer a reward is, the higher our
‘emotional interest rate’ rises and the more we are willing to give up in exchange
for it. The majority of economists have not yet grasped that we respond so
subjectively and inconsistently to interest rates. Their models still depend on
constant interest rates and are correspondingly questionable.