Section M

Discrete Probability Distribution

Now that we know something about probability, we can extend the concepts that were discussed earlier
in this course, specifically, relative-frequency distribution, mean and standard deviation, which we applied
to variables of a finite size to other types of variables. This leads to a discussion on the basics of random
variables and their probability distribution.

A random variable is a numerical measure of the outcome of a probability experiment, so its value is
determined by chance. Random variables are typically denoted using capital letters such as X.

A discrete random variable has either a finite or countable number of value; possible values can be listed.

A continuous random variable has infinitely many values; possible values cannot be listed.

Example:
1) Determine whether the random variable is discrete or continuous.

a) The number of cars in a parking lot. Discrete

b) The time you wait in line at a check out. Continuous

c) The height of a building. Continuous

d) The number of students in a classroom. Discrete

e) The number of times you flip a coin. Discrete

f) The weight of a passenger’s suitcase. Continuous

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X provides the possible values of the random
variable and their corresponding probabilities. A probability distribution can be in the form of a table,
graph, or mathematical formula.

Rules for a Discrete Probability Distribution

Let P(x) denote the probability that the random variable has the value x. Then

1)  P(x)  1 and 2) 0  P ( x)  1

This means the sum of all the probabilities in a discrete probability distribution must add up to 1 and each
individual probability can never be negative or greater than 1.

89
Example:

2) Determine whether the table represents a discrete probability distribution. If not, explain why.

a) b) c) d)
x P(x) x P(x) x P(x) x P(x)
10 0.3 -2 0.15 6.2 -0.2 15 0.3
20 0.2 -1 0.35 6.3 0.4 20 0.4
30 0.2 1 0.25 6.4 0.6 25 0.5
40 0.3 2 0.25 6.5 0.2 30 0.6
Yes Yes No, has a negative No, probability adds
probability to more than 1

3) Fill in the missing value so that the following table represents a probability distribution.

0.15 + 0.25 + 0.45 + 0.05 = 0.9 so 1 – 0.9 = 0.1

A probability histogram is a histogram in which the horizontal axis corresponds to the value of the random
variable and the vertical axis represents the probability of each value of the random variable. It’s the
same as a relative frequency histogram.

The mean or expected value of a discrete random variable

mean of the random variable X = 𝛍𝐗 = ∑(𝐱 ∙ 𝐏(𝐱)) , where x is the value of the random variable and
P(x) is the probability of observing the value x.

Note: the mean of a discrete random variable is thought of as the average outcome if the experiment is
repeated many, many times. In other words, if a probability experiment that produces a value of a
random variable is repeated over and over again, the average of the values produced will approach the
mean of the random variable.

Law of Large Numbers If we sample from a population, then as the sample grows larger, the sample
mean will approach the population mean.

Variance and standard deviation of a discrete random variable

variance of the random variable X = 𝛔𝟐𝐗 = ∑(𝐱 𝟐 ∙ 𝐏(𝐱)) − 𝛍𝟐𝐗

standard deviation of the variable X = 𝛔𝐗 = √𝛔𝟐𝐗 = √∑(𝐱 𝟐 ∙ 𝐏(𝐱)) − 𝛍𝟐𝐗

90
Example:
4) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the random variable with the given discrete probability
distribution.

a)

𝛍𝐗 = 𝟏𝟎(𝟎. 𝟐𝟓) + 𝟏𝟓(𝟎. 𝟏𝟓) + 𝟐𝟎(𝟎. 𝟑𝟓) + 𝟐𝟓(𝟎. 𝟐) + 𝟑𝟎(𝟎. 𝟎𝟓) = 𝟏𝟖. 𝟐𝟓

𝝈𝑿 = √𝟏𝟎𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟓) + 𝟏𝟓𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟏𝟓) + 𝟐𝟎𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟑𝟓) + 𝟐𝟓𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐) + 𝟑𝟎𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟎𝟓) − 𝟏𝟖. 𝟐𝟓𝟐 = 𝟓. 𝟗𝟕

b)

𝛍𝐗 = −𝟐(𝟎. 𝟐𝟕) − 𝟏(𝟎. 𝟐𝟐) + 𝟎(𝟎. 𝟏𝟖) + 𝟐(𝟎. 𝟐𝟗) + 𝟑(𝟎. 𝟎𝟒) = −𝟎. 𝟎𝟔

𝝈𝑿 = √(−𝟐)𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟕) + (−𝟏)𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟐) + 𝟎𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟏𝟖) + 𝟐𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟗) + 𝟑𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟎𝟒) − (−𝟎. 𝟎𝟔)𝟐 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟖

5) The number of points scored in a domino tournament on a typical scoring play has the following
probability distribution.

x 5 10 15 20 25
P(x) 0.09 0.11 0.30 0.29 0.21

a) What is the probability of scoring 10 or less? 0.09 + 0.11 = 0.20

b) What is the probability of scoring 20 or more? 0.29 + 0.21 = 0.5

c) What is the probability of scoring 15? 0.30

d) What is the mean? 𝛍𝐗 = 𝟓(𝟎. 𝟎𝟗) + 𝟏𝟎(𝟎. 𝟏𝟏) + 𝟏𝟓(𝟎. 𝟑) + 𝟐𝟎(𝟎. 𝟐𝟗) + 𝟐𝟓(𝟎. 𝟐𝟏) = 𝟏𝟕. 𝟏

e) What is the standard deviation?

91
6) The following table defines the discrete distribution for the number of cars per household in California.
Number of Cars 0 1 2 3 4 or more
P(x) 0.03 0.13 0.70 0.10 0.04

a) What is the probability a California household owns 1 car? 0.13

b) What is the probability a California household owns more than 2 cars? 0.10 + 0.04 = 0.14

c) What is the probability a California household owns less than 3 cars? 0.03 + 0.13 + 0.70 = 0.86

d) What is the mean? 𝛍𝐗 = 𝟎(𝟎. 𝟎𝟑) + 𝟏(𝟎. 𝟏𝟑) + 𝟐(𝟎. 𝟕) + 𝟑(𝟎. 𝟏) + 𝟒(𝟎. 𝟎𝟒) = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟗

e) What is the standard deviation?

𝝈𝑿 = √𝟎𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟎𝟑) + 𝟏𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟏𝟑) + 𝟐𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟕𝟎) + 𝟑𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟏) + 𝟒𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟎𝟒) − 𝟏. 𝟗𝟗𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟏

7) An insurance company sells a one-year term life insurance policy to a 80-year-old woman. The woman
pays a premium of $5000. If she dies within one year, the company will pay $50,000 to her beneficiary.
According to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the probability that a 80-year-old woman
will be alive one year later is 0.9516. Let X be the profit made by the insurance company.

a) Construct a probability distribution. b) Find the expected value of the profit.

x P(x)
5000 0.9516 𝛍𝐗 = 𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎(𝟎. 𝟗𝟓𝟏𝟔) + (−𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎)(𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟖𝟒) =$2338
-50000 0.0484

1 – 0.9516 = 0.0484
Since the sum must add to one.

92
8) An investor is considering investing in a start-up company. She estimates that she has a probability of
0.20 of a $15,000 loss, probability of 0.35 of a $25,000 profit, probability of 0.15 of a $50,000 profit, and
probability 0.30 of breaking even (a profit of $0). What is the expected value of the profit? Would you
advise the investor to make the investment? Explain.

x P(x)
0 0.30
𝛍𝐗 = 𝟎(𝟎. 𝟑) + (−𝟏𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎)(𝟎. 𝟐) + 𝟐𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎(𝟎. 𝟑𝟓) + 𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎(𝟎. 𝟏𝟓) = $𝟏𝟑𝟐𝟓𝟎
−15000 0.20
25000 0.35 Yes, I would advisor the investor to make the investment since the expected
50000 0.15 profit is positive.

9) You play a game with an ordinary deck of 52 cards where one card is drawn at random. If the card
drawn is the ace of diamonds you win $55. If the card is any diamond other than the ace you win $10. If
the card is black, you win $5. However, if you pick a heart, you lose $30.

a) Construct a probability distribution and find the expected value of this game for you.

x P(x)
1
55
52
𝟏 𝟏𝟐 𝟐𝟔 𝟏𝟑
12 𝛍𝐗 = 𝟓𝟓 (𝟓𝟐) + 𝟏𝟎 (𝟓𝟐) + 𝟓 (𝟓𝟐) + (−𝟑𝟎) (𝟓𝟐) = −𝟏. 𝟔𝟑
10
52
26
5
52
13
-30
52

b) Is it to your advantage to play? Explain.

No, since the expected value for the game is negative.

93