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Discrete and Continous Probability

University Mathematics I: Olaniyi Evans

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37 views3 pages

Discrete and Continous Probability

University Mathematics I: Olaniyi Evans

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Olaniyi Evans
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26

DISCRETE & CONTINUOUS


PROBABILITY

CONTENTS
Random Variables: Probability Distributions 240
Discrete Probability Distributions 240
Binomial Probability Distribution 242
Binomial Experiment 243
Binomial Probability Function 243
Poisson Probability Distribution 245
Continuous Probability Distributions 247
Normal Probability Distribution 247
Normal Curve 247

R A N D O M V A R I A B L E S : P R O B A B I L I T Y D IS T R IB U T IO N S
A random variable (or stochastic variable) is described as a variable whose
numerical values depend on outcomes of a random phenomenon. A random
variable can be either discrete or continuous depending on the numerical
values it assumes. A discrete random variable assumes either a finite number of
values or an infinite sequence of values such as 0, 1, 2, ... For example, consider
the experiment of users signing in to Instagram. The random variable of interest
is x, the number of users signing in during a one-hour period. The possible values
of x are the sequence of integers 0, 1, 2…. Thus, x is a discrete random variable
assuming one of the values in this sequence.
A continuous random variable is a random variable that assumes any
numerical value in an interval or collection of intervals. Examples are time,
weight, and distance. For example, consider an experiment of monitoring the
number of minutes it takes students to complete a test. Suppose the random
variable of interest is x, number of minutes it takes students to complete a test.
An infinite number of values are possible for x, including values such as 25.10
minutes, 39.912 minutes, 42.8637 minutes, and so on.
Probability distributions describe the likelihood of outcomes in a random event.
Discrete probability distributions (e.g., Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson) have
specific values, while continuous probability distributions (e.g., Normal,
Exponential, Student’s t, Chi-squared) have values within a range.

D i sc r e t e P r o b a b i l i t y D i st r i b u t i o n s
The probability distribution of a random variable describes how probabilities
are distributed over the values. If x = number of successes occurring in the n
trials, x can be 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , n. x is a discrete random variable because the
number of values is finite. For a discrete random variable x, the probability
distribution is defined by a probability function, denoted by f(x), which provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.
Expected value of a discrete random variable

𝑬(𝒙) = 𝝁 = ∑ 𝒙𝒇(𝒙)

The variance of a discrete random variable


Chapter 26| Discrete & Continuous Probability 241

𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝒙) = 𝝈𝟐 = ∑(𝒙 − 𝒖)𝟐 𝒇(𝒙)

The standard deviation of a discrete random variable

𝝈 = √𝝈𝟐

 EXAMPLE 26.1
The following data were collected by counting the number of goals scored by
players in the World Cup.
Scores 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of players 11 20 14 15 10 13 17
a) Use the relative frequency approach to construct an empirical discrete
probability distribution for the number of goals scored by the players. Show
that your probability distribution satisfies the required conditions for a valid
discrete probability distribution
b) Compute the probability that (i) a player scored no goals (ii) a player scored
not more than two goals (iii) a player scored at least five goals.
S O L U T I O N tips
a) Discrete probability distribution for the number of goals scored:
x f(x)
0 11 11/100 = 0.11
1 20 20/100 = 0.20
2 14 14/100 = 0.14
3 15 15/100 = 0.15
4 10 10/100 = 0.10
5 13 13/100 = 0.13
6 17 17/100 = 0.17
100 1
b) (i) The probability that a player scored no goals
= 𝑓(0) = 0.11
(ii) The probability that a player scored not more than two goals
= 𝑓(0) + 𝑓(1) + 𝑓(2)
= 0.11 + 0.20 + 0.14 = 0.45
(iii) The probability that a player scored at least five goals
= 𝑓(5) + 𝑓(6)
= 0.13 + 0.17 = 0.30

 EXAMPLE 26.2
The demand for pizza at Instant Kitchen varies greatly from day to day. The
probability distribution in the following table, based on the past one month of
data, shows the company’s monthly demand.
Demand for pizza 296 335 464 361 304 210 180
Probability 0.16 0.21 0.16 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.10
What is the expected value of the monthly demand? What are the variance and
the standard deviation of the monthly demand.
S O L U T I O N tips
x 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑥𝑓(𝑥) (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 𝑓(𝑥)
296 0.16 47.36 325.08 52.01
335 0.21 70.35 439.74 92.35
464 0.16 74.24 22491.00 3598.56
242 Olaniyi Evans | University Mathematics

361 0.10 36.10 2206.18 220.62


304 0.12 36.48 100.60 12.07
210 0.15 31.50 10822.24 1623.34
180 0.10 18.00 17964.04 1796.40
Total 314.03 7395.35

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