24 Saturday, August 28, 2010 racingpost.

com

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GUIDE TO TRADING
Tennis Trader the key
speculative shots can pay
Betting exchange expert exceptional dividends in the
Peter Webb, of Bet Angel, ninth game.
with the fourth in a series If the game is 30-30, you are
on the art of trading only potentially two points
away from a good chance of

to serving up a profit
being a set up. If your
opponent sends the first serve

M
AKING money by
trading sports is out, you can step inside the
all about baseline and look to get to
volatility, the only one point away from that
movement in important break of serve.
odds. Lay at a lower price than You can look to the French
you can back at and you will Open women’s final for
make money. The bigger the evidence of what happens if
gap between your lay bet and the serve is broken in that
your back bet, the bigger the ninth game. In this case you
profit. could have taken the risk of a
One of the most volatile and, small downside for a massive
therefore, the most potentially payoff.
profitable in-play sports is While breaks of serve are
tennis. There are many reasons always important, some are
why tennis odds are so more important than others,
volatile, but the key reason is and that’s where statistics can
the unique scoring system play a key role.
which lends itself well to ‘Reading’ the match,
significant changes of fortunes watching it closely and
for the players. understanding all the
It is quite easy to go from dynamics, is also a key skill in
being 2-0 up to 2-3 down, just How Tennis Trader (above) works out percentage probabilities and how the French Open women’s final fluctuated (right) tennis as this allows you to
by failing to hold your serve pinpoint key moments more
it’s free if you are a Bet Angel a match is the hardest one in odds will drift to 2.52. However, you will be taking precisely.
once. Failing to hold your
serve could be down to a fluke subscriber. which to break serve. Lots of I have based these odds on a less risk at this point. A lot of tennis traders
or a bad call that goes against While statistics are very sports-related guidance is five-set tie-breaker match. In a competitive match, you examine previous rounds and
you at just the wrong moment. useful, psychology and fitness based more on myth than Wind the model forward to would expect both players to performances which can give
Matches can also last, in also play an important part in reality, but this fact is the fifth set and if the server is try to play out of their skin. important clues to a player’s
theory at least, for infinity; one trying to trade tennis academically proven. broken here, the odds will drift But you would also expect that state of mind at certain points
almost did at Wimbledon this successfully. Another common occurrence to 4.55. You can see that both would try to avoid doing in a match or any potential
year. This means the chance of Struggling to hold serve and is that players who are one set anticipating what will cause anything stupid in the first set, injury problems.
a large shift in odds is much then seeing three aces blasted away from defeat also tend to that break of serve is the key as it’s important to get off to a Seeing how often a player
more likely. past you in the next game is perform better at the start of to successfully trading a tennis good start. who loses the first set goes on
In order to profit from these demoralising no matter how that set. At that point, it’s a match. It is also equally important to win or vice-versa, can tell
swings in odds you need to well you have played, or how do-or-die situation for the Whether your cue is fitness, not to blow it early on. So a you a lot about their ability to
understand where the odds are unlucky you have been. player, so they may as well psychological or statistically game of cat and mouse, fight back or snatch defeat
going and what creates the key Therefore, probabilities of give it a good try when there is based, a break in serve is probing your opponent and from the jaws of victory. It can
moves in a tennis match. How winning can vary quite a bit little to lose. always going to be significant. holding serve, is quite a likely also help identify slow or fast
do you do that? from game to game. If you want to profit from As we have illustrated, occurrence in a big match. starters.
Fortunately, help is now at There are other factors that tennis then the best entry into breaks of serve occurring later Backing the server to win You should also look at the
hand as the team here at Bet you can take account of. There the market is a break of serve. in the match have a more their serve with a view to court surface. Clay favours
Angel have invented a unique is evidence that winning the Breaks of serve are obviously pronounced effect on the trading out at the end of the fitter, younger players who are
tool to help you profit from previous point, game or set key turning points and if a market odds, especially when game is a good tactic. If the shot makers. Grass favours a
tennis, the aptly named Tennis increases the chances of break occurs, the odds will the match is a close one. match goes to 4-4 in the first power, serve and volley game.
Trader. winning the next. move rapidly. So if you are aiming to get set, then an opportunity will As tennis is one of the most
Tennis Trader allows you to This statistic is generated at Using Tennis Trader, I looked the largest possible movement, open up in the ninth game to volatile sports in terms of odds
model and profile each match least in part by the underlying at two players who were a close match in the final set is switch strategies and oppose movement, it makes for an
and identify key moments at a psychology of getting the evenly matched and priced at where you will find the biggest the server. excellent trading market. The
glance. upper hand over your evens, or 2.00 in decimal odds. opportunities. At this point, if you can only downside is that matches
Using it, you can easily opponent. There is also strong If the server wins his first Earlier sets also present break the serve of your can last for a long time.
identify where your upside evidence of a ‘first game game in the match, their odds opportunities, but these trades opponent, you then serve for However, tennis still remains
profit is at its highest and effect’. will drop to 1.91, a nine-tick are not as profitable because the set. So stepping up your one of the most popular sports
potential losses low. Best of all, Specifically, the first game of move. If they lose serve, the the odds will move much less. game by trying a few trading markets.

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Racing Post Saturday, August 28, 2010 25

‘I was an instant convert to Probot’ the need to find a solution to terms has been reached.
John Duncan, a the problem of sensible staking Probot is the most incredible,
developer of gambling in an automated way. versatile and ingenious [Betfair
systems for more than As a result, Probot has now approved] software out there
seven years, and with 30 become an ingenious piece of using the Betfair API platform.
programming that still has me It goes much further than most
years-plus of gambling in awe, especially that I can to the point where a whole
experience, explains why switch it on, click the mouse family of systems, The Master
after resisting the urge to two or three times and leave it Plan Family, have been
use software he changed for the day. It is the developed to run with it.
combination of what makes up The entry system, Master
his opinion completely Probot that sold me. Plan Lite, can be added for just
when he encountered It can be used on horse another £5 per month and is
Probot for the first time racing and/or greyhound designed to pay for the
racing. It can back the best [the software each month using a
most popular in the market] of system that utilises the power

I
HAD convinced myself
a number of potential of compound growth and
that software was for realised I needed this and so a combination of things. staking plans. No-one can win selections. It can Dutch targets 0.35% of your betting
those other people that did anyone looking for an All automated betting bots every bet, so you need to know [multiple bet] two horses in bank as a return each day.
didn’t understand easier life. are the same, right? Wrong, how to control your bank and one race and hedge a third to Daily growth of just 0.35%
gambling and didn’t have Automated betting software they are not because they are make it last when the losers hit produce a profit on any of the will treble a betting bank in
the discipline to do it properly. does something that most of us all born out of an individual you. This is one of the harder three. It can lay an individual 315 betting days and, more to
How could a piece of software find extremely difficult – it need that is driven by the things to get right. selection and it can do all these the point, would pay for the
ever make the decisions that a deals with losing bets and developer. You either know how to three things at once on one system and software for a year
gambler needs to make? So to moves on. It doesn’t change In the case of Probot, that assess value through odds with copy of the bot. and still leave you with double
say I wasn’t an instant convert the game plan midway in an need was to come up with a a bet and, accordingly, keep Probot has infinitely variable your starting bank if it hit just
is like saying Attila the Hun attempt to second guess what’s way of backing or laying betting the value until your staking plans on each of the that tiny 0.35% target.
could benefit from anger coming to try to accelerate selections made from a ratings profit exceeds your loss, or you three-in-one betting solutions I can only scratch the
management. recovery of losses and, perhaps system that Probot’s developer have to come up with a system and includes the ability to stop surface. Probot converted me
I wanted to find fault with most importantly for busy [Steve] had refined over 20 that stakes correctly. You can after one winner or pre-stated and I haven’t even discovered
every piece of software I people, it allows us to get on years. As he introduced his also do both, of course. multiple winners. half of what it can do. There
encountered and I tested pretty with other things. ratings service to more people, Ask any two people about It can even be set up to find are training videos that show
much everything I could find. The reason that Probot got he became increasingly their view on staking plans, [for example] ten winners but you how very easy it is to use.
Once I had tried Probot, through to me where the frustrated at their seeming and they’ll give you a different stop when 50% or 40% or 60% For more information, go to
unlike the others, I finally others couldn’t, came down to inability to apply sensible answer. So Probot came from of the profit target in monetary www.probotuk.com