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    Introduction To Probability: Random Experiment Random Phenomenon Sample Space

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    Muhammad Shahid
    This document provides an introduction to probability and related concepts. It defines probability as the science that studies random experiments and phenomena. A sample space containing all possible outcomes is needed for probability analysis. Probability distributions describe the variability and central tendency of random variables. Common probability distributions include the binomial and normal distributions. The document also discusses sample spaces, events, Venn diagrams, and computing probabilities of events for simple random experiments like coin tosses and dice rolls. Formulas for union, intersection, and complement of events are presented along with example probability questions.

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    Introduction To Probability: Random Experiment Random Phenomenon Sample Space

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    Muhammad Shahid
    147 views29 pages
    This document provides an introduction to probability and related concepts. It defines probability as the science that studies random experiments and phenomena. A sample space containing all possible outcomes is needed for probability analysis. Probability distributions describe the variability and central tendency of random variables. Common probability distributions include the binomial and normal distributions. The document also discusses sample spaces, events, Venn diagrams, and computing probabilities of events for simple random experiments like coin tosses and dice rolls. Formulas for union, intersection, and complement of events are presented along with example probability questions.

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    PTSP Lecture 1

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    This document provides an introduction to probability and related concepts. It defines probability as the science that studies random experiments and phenomena. A sample space containing all possible outcomes is needed for probability analysis. Probability distributions describe the variability and central tendency of random variables. Common probability distributions include the binomial and normal distributions. The document also discusses sample spaces, events, Venn diagrams, and computing probabilities of events for simple random experiments like coin tosses and dice rolls. Formulas for union, intersection, and complement of events are presented along with example probability questions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    147 views29 pages

    Introduction To Probability: Random Experiment Random Phenomenon Sample Space

    Uploaded by

    Muhammad Shahid
    This document provides an introduction to probability and related concepts. It defines probability as the science that studies random experiments and phenomena. A sample space containing all possible outcomes is needed for probability analysis. Probability distributions describe the variability and central tendency of random variables. Common probability distributions include the binomial and normal distributions. The document also discusses sample spaces, events, Venn diagrams, and computing probabilities of events for simple random experiments like coin tosses and dice rolls. Formulas for union, intersection, and complement of events are presented along with example probability questions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 29

    Introduction to Probability

    • It is the science in which either we study a


    random experiment or we observe a random
    phenomenon.
    • In probability study, a sample space is needed
    which is the set of all possible outcomes of
    any random experiment.
    • It is the connectivity b/w Descriptive and
    Inferential Statistics.
    Logical Thinking through the Venn
    diagram
    • A Venn diagram is a rectangular area showing
    the Sample Space & having some circles inside
    (usually overlapped) which are showing the
    Events. S
    A B
    S={a,b,c,d,….,n} c d,e
    a,b
    A={a,b,c,f,g,h} g,h
    i
    f
    B={c,d,e,g,h,i}
    J,k
    l,m,n
    C={f,g,h,I,j,k} C
    Shading the Venn Diagram
    S
    A B

    For
    For A’B’
    For AB,
    AB,
    A’ it, itshould
    , it should
    A’B, should
    bebebe
    The Demorgan’s Law
    Probability Topics Tree
    Random Probability Random
    Expectation
    Experiment Distribution Variable
    Counting Rules

    Sample
    Outcomes Criteria Numeric
    Space

    Mutually Exclusive (Non Overlapping)


    Events
    Non Mutually Exclusive (Overlapping)

    Probability
    Independent Dependent
    P(AB)=P(A) P(B) Conditional Probability
    What is the Distribution?
    • Gives us a picture of
    the variability
    • and central tendency.

    • Can also show the


    amount of skewness
    and Kurtosis.
    Bell-Shaped Symmetrical Distribution
    ±
    ±2
    Central Tendency
    ±3
    Dispersion
    Probability Distributions

    • For any frequency distribution, we need a


    variable while for any probability distribution,
    we need a random variable
    • Random Variable is the data which can be
    obtained by converting the outcomes of any
    sample space into numeric codes after defining
    a particular criteria, so;
    • Random Experiment is necessary for a
    probability distribution
    • Any Experiment with uncertain results
    (outcomes) called a random experiment
    • For example, mixing acid and base will
    produce salt and water (It’s an experiment)
    but;
    • Tossing a Dice or a Coin, or Drawing a card
    from well shuffled deck will produce a random
    result (these are examples of random
    experiments), so in each random experiment,
    we collect all possibilities (outcomes) and
    make a sample space
    Formation of Sample Spaces
    Random Experiments Related to a Fair Coin:
    Random Experiment # 1: Tossing a fair-coin once
    S={H,T} 21=2 outcomes

    Random Experiment # 2: Tossing a fair coin twice or tossing 2


    fair coins, once.
    S={HH, HT, TH, TT} 22=4 outcomes

    Random Experiment # 3: Tossing a fair coin thrice or tossing 3


    fair coins, once.
    S={HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, THT, TTH, HTT, TTT} 23=8 outcomes
    In general, 2n showing the two sided coin is being tossed ‘n’ times
    Formation of Dichotomous SS
    • A truth Table can help us forming the sample
    space: For e.g. Sample Space of Rand. Exp. # 3.
    • The formation rule is simple S. No. 1 2 3
    st nd rd

    • Values of Every next column 1 H H H


    2 T H H
    should be doubled of the 3 H T H
    preceding column. 4 T T H

    • Outcomes can be observed 5 H H T


    6 T H T
    Horizontally. 7 H T T
    8 T T T
    Random Experiments with Dice
    Random Experiment #4: Tossing a fair dice, once
    S={1,2,3,4,5,6} 61=6 outcomes

    Random Experiment #5: Tossing a fair dice, twice or


    Tossing two fair dice once
    S={11, 12, 13, 14, 15,16
    21, 22, 23, ……… ,26
    .....
    61, 62, 63, ………., 66} 62=36 outcomes
    Random Experiments Contd..
    Random Experiment #6: Tossing a fair coin and a fair
    dice, once
    S={H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6,T1,T2,….T6} 21 x61=12 outcomes

    Random Experiment #7: Tossing 2 fair coins & a fair dice


    once.
    S={HH1,HH2,HH3,HH4,HH5,HH6
    HT1,HT2,HT3,………………,HT6
    …..
    TT1,TT2,……………………….,TT6} 22x61=24 outcomes
    Random Experiments A Deck of Cards
    Random Experiment #8: Drawing a card from a
    well shuffled Deck of playing cards.
    S={ Hearts King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3+…+10 13
    Diamonds King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3+…+10 13
    Clubs King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3+…+10 13
    Spades King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3+…+10} 13
    Total= 52
    Formation of Events
    Replicate the same work for
    What is an Event? Random Experiment #3
    • It’s a logical statement which should be followed, strictly
    • We always collect the matching outcomes from the sample space
    after viewing the Event statement.
    For e.g. if we consider the Random Exp. # 2: VENN Diagram

    Object: Tossing a fair coin twice, S={HH,HT,TH,TT} A B


    Event(s):
    A={First toss should be a Head} HH HT TH

    A={HH, HT}
    TT
    B={Exactly one Tail in the outcome}:
    B={HT,TH}
    Thus we formed two Mutually Exclusive /Non-Mutually Exclusive
    Events
    Computing Probability
    Probability of an Event
    • P(A) stands for probability of an Event A such that;
    P(A) = n(A)/n(S)
    Where,
    • n(A) is the number of outcomes present in Event A.
    • n(S) are the number of outcomes present in the
    Sample Space.
    • Probability is a proportion of Event in a Sample Space.
    • For any Event A; 0  P(A)  1 where A  S
    Computing Probabilities (Example)
    • Random Experiment # 2: Tossing a fair coin twice or
    tossing two fair coins, once.
    Sample Space S={HH,HT,TH,TT},
    Event(s)
    A={First toss should be a Head}, A={HH, HT}
    B={Exactly one Tail in the outcome}: B={HT, TH}
    Therefore Probabilities will be,
    P(A)=2/4=0.5 50% chances
    P(B)=2/4=0.5 50% chances
    Interpreting Probability
    Probability occurs against every Event and should be interpreted
    in 3 components;
    1) Object of the Random Experiment
    2) Value of the Probability
    3) Event Statement
    For e.g., Interpretation of P(A)=0.5 can be written as;
    If we toss a fair coin twice, we have 50% chances
    of getting head in the first toss.
    Similarly, P(B)=0.5 would be:
    If we toss a fair coin twice, we have 50% chances
    of getting exactly one tail in both tosses.
    Union, Intersection and Compliment
    For the same Random Experiment # 2, the following
    operations showing results and relevant interpretations
    needed (where U=OR, =AND, A’=not(A):
    Since S={HH,HT,TH,TT} A={HH,HT} B={HT,TH}
    Therefore,
    AUB={HH,HT,TH} P(AUB)=3/4=0.75 75%
    If we toss a fair coin twice, we have 75% chances of getting
    head in the first toss OR exactly one Tail in both tosses.
    AB={HT} P(AB)=1/4=0.25 25%
    A’=S-A={TH,TT} P(A’)=2/4=0.50 50%
    P(A’)=1-P(A)
    Practice Questions
    Q1) If we toss a fair coin three times, determine the
    following probabilities:
    a) P(A)=Probability of getting exactly one Head in all tosses?
    b) P(B)=Probability of getting Tail in the first toss?
    c) P(C)=Probability of getting exactly one head AND one
    tail? P(One head  One Tail)
    d) P(D)=Probability of NOT getting exactly one head in all
    tosses? P(A’)
    e) P(F)=Probability of Either getting exactly one head in all
    tosses OR tail in the first toss? P(AUB)
    Assignment #1
    Q1) If we toss a fair dice twice, determine the following
    Probabilities: (Ref. Random Experiment #4)
    a) P(A)=Probability of getting same number on both Dice?
    b) P(B)=Probability of getting odd number in both Dice?
    c) P(C)=Probability of getting sum of both numbers equals
    to 5?
    d) P(D)=Probability of getting an odd number AND an even
    number on two Dice respectively.
    e) P(F)=Probability of NOT getting the same number on
    both Dice?
    Practice Questions (Contd..)
    Q2) If we toss a fair COIN and a Fair DICE once, determine
    the following Probabilities: (Ref. Random Experiment #6)

    a) P(A)=Probability of getting exactly One head in the coin?


    b) P(B)=Probability of getting an odd number on Dice?
    c) P(C)=Probability of getting exactly one Head with an Odd
    number on Dice? P(AB)
    d) P(D)=Probability of getting a number less than 4 on Dice.
    e) P(F)=Probability of NOT getting exactly one Head in the
    coin? P(A’)=1-P(A)
    Assignment # 1
    Q2) If we toss two fair COINS and a Fair DICE once,
    determine the following Probabilities: (Ref. Random
    Experiment #7)

    a) P(A)=Probability of getting exactly One head in the coin?


    b) P(B)=Probability of getting an odd number on Dice?
    c) P(C)=Probability of getting exactly one Head with an Odd
    number on Dice? P(AB)
    d) P(D)=Probability of getting a number less than 4 on Dice.
    e) P(F)=Probability of NOT getting exactly one Head in the
    coin? P(A’)=1-P(A)
    A VENN diagram case with a Deck
    If we draw one card from a well-shuffled deck, determine
    the following events:
    K={it will be a King} E={it will be a card numbered
    K={4 cards} from 3 to 5}
    A={it will be an Ace} E={12 cards}
    A={4 cards}
    B={it will be a Black Card} Show a Venn diagram
    containing these 5 Events
    B={26 cards}
    D={it will be a Diamond}
    D={13 cards}
    A VENN diagram case with a Deck

    K A
    2 2
    2 2

    22

    B 22
    A VENN diagram case with a Deck

    D
    11

    K 1 1 A
    1 1
    2 2

    22

    B 11
    A VENN diagram case with a Deck

    D
    8 3
    K 1 1 A
    1 1
    2 2
    E

    16 6

    B 8
    3
    Deck of playing card, an example
    P(BE)=6/52=0.115
    Interpretation: When we draw a card from a well-
    shuffled deck, we have 11.5% chances of getting a
    Black card which is numbered b/w 3 to 5.
    Mutually Exclusive Events??

    D
    8 3
    K 1 1 A
    1 1
    2 2
    E

    16 6

    B 8
    3
    Random Variables (Example)
    •If we toss a fair coin twice {Random Exp. # 2}, the
    sample space will contain all possibilities and it will
    be;
    Replicate the same for Random Exp. # 3
    S={HH,HT,TH,TT)

    •Now if we define a following criteria, i.e. A Probability


    Distribution
    X={Showing no. of heads in each outcome} then ‘X’
    will be a random variable having these values; X P(X=x)
    X={2,1,1,0}
    0 1/4
    •Finally we got the probability distribution so that
    P(X=0)=0.25 are the chances of having no heads in 1 2/4
    both tosses so on.
    2 1/4

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