SUBJECT

(FOUNDATION IN STATISTICAL METHODS)

LECTURE COMPANION SEMESTER: 2 PREPARED BY: Prof. Vikas K.

Unit 4: Basics of Probability

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER APPLICATIONS

*Proprietary material of SILVER OAK UNIVERSITY
 Course Material

BCA SEM 2

Foundation in Statistical Methods

UNIT IV

Probability & Random Variable

Probability Spaces:

Mathematical definition of probability:

If there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely events, probability of
the happening of A is defined as the ration m/n, m is favourable to A.
m
P( A) =
n
Number cases favourable to A
=
Exhaustive number of cases in S

Statistical definition of probability:

Let a random experiment be repeated n times and let an event A occur nA out of n
nA nA
n called the relative frequency of the event A. As n increases, n
trials. The ratio
shows a tendency to stabilize and to approach a constant value. This value, denoted by
P(A) is called the probability of the event A.

lim nA
P( A) =
n→ n

Axiomatic definition of Probability:

Let S be the sample space and A be an event associated with a random

experiment. Then the probability of the event A, denoted by P(A), is defined as a
real number satisfying the following axioms,
(i) 0  P( A)  1
(ii) P(S)=1
(iii) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, P( AUB) = P( A) + P( B) and
(iv) If A1 , A2 ,...., An ,.... are a set of mutually exclusive events,
P( A1  A2  ....  An ....) = P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) + .... + P( An )....
Mutually exclusive events:.

When the occurrence of one event procludes the occurrence of all other events, then
such a set of events is said to be mutually exclusive.

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Example On tossing a coin , either head or tail can occur but not both. i.e occurrence
of head excludes the occurrence of tail. The events of occurrence of head and tail are
mutually exclusive.

Equally likely events

Two events are said to be equally likely events if each one of them has an equal
chance of occurrence.
In tossing an unbiased coin the occurrence of head or tail are equally likely.

Addition law of probability:

If A and B are any two events, and are not disjoint, then
P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A  B)
Proof:
From the Venn diagram, the events A and A  B are disjoint.

Therefore A  B = A  ( A  B)
P( A  B) = P[ A  ( A  B)]
= P( A) + P( A  B)
Adding and subtracting P( A  B) ,
P( A  B) = P( A) + P( A  B) + P( A  B) − P( A  B)
= P( A) + P[( A  B)  ( A  B)] − P( A  B)
P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A  B)

Conditional Probability

Ans:The conditional probability of an event B, assuming that the event A has

happened.
P( A  B)
P( B / A) = , providedP( A)  0
P( A)
P( A  B)
Similarly, P( A / B) = , providedP( B)  0
P( B)

Multiplication law of probability Page 2

 (FOUNDATION IN STATISTICS)
If the events A and B are independent,
P( A  B) = P( A).P( B)

Theorem of total probability

If B1 , B2 ,...., Bn be a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive events, and A is

another event associated with Bi , then
n
P ( A) =  P ( Bi ) P (A / Bi )
i =1

Proof:
The inner circle represents the event A.
A can occur along with B1 , B2 ,...., Bn that are exhaustive and mutually exclusive.
Therefore AB1 , AB2 ,...., ABn are also mutually exclusive.

A = AB1 + AB2 + .... + ABn

P( A) = P( ABi )
P( A) =  P( ABi )
n
=  P ( Bi ) P (A / Bi )
i =1

Bayes theorem

If B1 , B2 ,...., Bn be a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive events, and A is

another event associated with Bi , then
P( Bi ) P( A / Bi )
P( B / A) = n
, i = 1, 2,..., n
 P ( B ) P (A / B )
i =1
i i

Proof:
P( Bi  A) = P( Bi )  P( A / Bi )
P( Bi  A) = P ( A)  P( Bi / A)
P( Bi )  P( A / Bi )
 P( A / Bi ) =
P( A)
P ( Bi ) P ( A / Bi )
= n

 P ( B ) P (A / B )
i =1
i i

Random Variable:
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A real – valued function defined on the outcome of a probability experiment is called
a random variable.

Example :Suppose that a coin is tossed twice so that the sample space is S = {HH, HT,
TH, TT}. Let X represent the number of heads that can come up. With each sample
point we can associate a number for X as shown in Table . Thus, for example, in the
case of HH (i.e., 2 heads), X = 2 while for TH (1 head), X = 1. It follows that X is a
random variable.
Table

Sample HH HT TH TT
Point
X 2 1 1 0

It should be noted that many other random variables could also be defined on this
sample space, for example, the square of the number of heads or the number of
heads minus the number of tails.

Discrete Random Variable :

A random variable whose set of possible values is either finite or countably infinite is
called discrete random variable.
Example: Number of transmitted bits received in error.

Cumulative Distribution Function :

The cumulative distribution F(x) of a discrete random variable X with probability

distribution f(x) is given by
F(x) = P(X  x) =  f(t) for - < x < 
t x

Mean or Expectation of a discrete Random variable X:

Let X be a discrete random variable assuming values x1, x2,…, xn with corresponding
probabilities P1, P2,…, Pn. Then
E(X) =  x i p(x i ) is called the expected value of X.
i

E(X) is also commonly called the mean or the expectation of X. A useful identity
states
that for a function g,
E[g(x)] =  g(x
xi
i ) p(x i )

Continuous Random Variable:

A random variable X is said to be continuous if it takes all possible values between

certain limits say from real number ‘a’ to real number ‘b’.
Example: The length of time during which a vacuum tube installed in a circuit
functions is a continuous random variable, number of scratches on a surface,

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proposition of defective parts among 1000 tested, number of transmitted in error.
 (FOUNDATION IN STATISTICS)
Cumulative distribution function of a continuous random variable:

The cumulative distribution function of a continuous random variable X is

x
F(x) = P(X  x) =  f(t) dt for - < x < 
−

Mean or Expectation of a Continuous Random variable X:

Suppose X is a continuous random variable with probability density function f(x). The
mean or expected value of X, denoted as  or E(X) is

 = E(X) =
−
 x f(x) dx
A useful identity is that for any function g,

E[g(x)] =  g(x) f(x) dx
−

Variance of X:

The variance of X, denoted as V(X) or 2, is

 
2 = V(X) =  (x − μ) f(x) dx = x f(x) dx − μ 2
2 2

− −

= E[X ] – [E(X)]
2 2

Moment generating function of a random variable X about the origin:

Moment generating function of a random variable X about the origin is defined as

MX(t) = E[etX] =  x
e tx p(x) , if X is discrete


e
tx
f X (x) dx , if X is continuous.
−

Tchebyshev's Inequality:

Let X be a random variable with mean E(X) =  and variance var(X) = 2 . Then the
Tchebyshev’s inequality states that

2
P( X −  t) 
t2

For any t>0.

Other equivalent form can be written for this inequality is

2
P ( X −   t )  1−
t2

P ( X −   n ) 
1
n2

Problems: Page 5
 (FOUNDATION IN STATISTICS)
1. Find the chance of throwing (a) four (b) an even number with an ordinary six faced
die.
1
P (throwing four) = 6
3 1
P (getting an even number) = = 2.
6

2. A bag contains 8 white balls and 6 red balls. Find the probability of drawing two balls
of the same colour.
Two balls out of 14 balls can be drawn in 14𝐶2 ways.
Two white balls out of 8 can be drawn in 8𝐶2 ways.
8C 28
P (drawing two white balls) = 14C2 = 91
2

Two red balls out of 6 can be drawn in 6𝐶2 ways.

6C 15
P (drawing two red balls) = 14C2 = 91
2

Probability of drawing 2 balls of same colour (either both white or both red)
28 15 43
= 91 + 91 = 91

3. Find the probability of drawing an ace or a spade or both from a deck of cards?

4
Probability of drawing an ace event (A) = 52.
13
Probability of drawing a spade event (B) = 52
1
Probability of drawing an ace of spade (A ∩ 𝐵) = .
52

The events drawing an ace or a spade are not mutually exclusive , therefore
P(AUB) = P(A) +P(B) - P (A ∩ 𝐵)
4 13 1
= + -
52 52 52

4
= 13.

4. What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays?

A leap year contains 52 full weeks and extra two days (total of 366 days).

Possible two days combinations are

Monday & Tuesday
Tuesday & Wednesday
Wednesday & Thursday
Thursday & Friday
Friday & Saturday
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Saturday & Sunday
Sunday & Monday
There 7 possible combinations. We have Sunday in two combinations
2
The required probability = 7

5. When A and B are 2 mutually exclusive events such that P(A) = ½ and
P(B) = 1/3 , find P( AUB) and P(A∩ 𝐵).

P( AUB) = P(A) +P(B) = ½ +1/3 = 5/6

P(A∩ 𝐵) = 0
6. A fair coin is tossed 5 times what is the probability of having at least one head?

n(S) = 25 =32
n(A) = at least one head = 31
P(A) = 31/32

7. Given that P(A) =0.31, P(B) = 0.47 , A and B are mutually exclusive. Then find P(A∩
𝐵̅ ).

A and B are mutually exclusive, therefore P(A∩ 𝐵) = 0

W.K.T P(A∩ 𝐵̅ ) + P(A∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)
P(A∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 0.31.
8. If P(A) =0.35 P(B) = 0.13 and P(A∩ 𝐵) = 0.14 find 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅ ).

𝑃(𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅ ) = P𝐴
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∩ 𝐵 = 1- P(A∩ 𝐵) = 0.86.

9. Given P(A) =1/3 , P(B) =1/4 , P(A∩ 𝐵) = 1/6 find the following probability
𝑃(𝐴̅), 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ).

𝑃(𝐴̅)= 1- P(A) = 2/3

𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ).= P(𝐴𝑈𝐵
̅̅̅̅̅̅ ). = 1- P(AUB) = 7/12.

10. What is the probability of obtaining 2 heads in two throws of a single coin?

n(S) = 4 n(A) =1 : P(A) = ¼.

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11. If P(A)=P(B)=P(AB), show that P( AB + AB) = 0
Soln:
By addition theorem,
P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( AB) --------(1)
We can write,
P( A  B) = P( AB) + P( AB) + P( AB) -----(2)
Using the given condition in (1),
P( A  B) = P( AB) -----------(3)
From (2) and (3), P( AB) + P( AB) = 0

12. A box contains tags marked 1,2,…,n. two tags are chosen at random without
replacement. Find the probability that the numbers on the tags will be consecutive
integers.
Soln:
No. of ways of choosing any one pair from the (n-1)pairs = (n − 1)C1 = n − 1
Total no. of ways of choosing 2 tags from the n tags = nC 2
n −1
Therefore the required probability = =2/n
n(n − 1) / 2

13. Among the workers in a factory only 30% receive a bonus. Among those receiving the
bonus only 20% are skilled. What is the probability of a randomly selected worker
who is skilled and receiving bonus.
Soln:
P(A)=0.3
P(B/A)=0.2
P( A  B) = P( A) P( B / A)
= 0.6
14. Prove that the events A and B are independent, then A and B are also independent.
Proof: P( A  B) = P( A  B)
= 1 − P( A  B)
Using addition and multiplication theorems,
P( A  B) = P( A)  P( B)
15. A and B alternately throw a pair of dice. A wins if he throws 6 before B throws 7 and
B wins if he throws 7 before A throws 6. If A begins, show that his chance of winning
is 30/61.
Soln: A- Event of A throwing 6.
B – Event of B throwing 7.
5 1
P( A) = P( B) =
36 6
P( Awins) = P( Aor ABAor ABABAor...)
= P( A) + P( ABA) + P( ABABA) + ...
= 30/61

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16. In a coin tossing experiment, if the coin shows head, 1 dice is thrown and the result is
recorded. But if the coin shows tail, 2 dice are thrown and their sum is recorded. What
is the probability that the recorded number will be 2?
Soln:
When a single die is thrown, P(2)=1/6.
When 2 dice are thrown, the sum will be 2, only if each dies shows 1.
Therefore P(getting 2 as sum with 2 dice) =1/6 X 1/6=1/36
by theorem of total probability,
P(2) = P( H )  P(2 / H ) + P(T )  P(2 / T )
= 7/72.
17. If atleast 1 child in a family with 2 children is a boy, what is the probability that both
children are boys?
Soln:
P=probability that a child is a boy = ½
q=1/2
P(atleast one boy) = P(exactly 1 boy)+P(exactly 2 boys)
=¾
1
3
P(both are boys/atleast one is a boy)= 4 =
3 4
4
18. In a shooting test, the probability of hitting the target is ½ for A, 2/3 for B and ¾ for
C. If all of them fire at the target, find the probability that none of them hits the target.
Soln:
Let A,B, and C are the event of hitting the target.
P(A)=1/2 ; P(B)=2/3 ; P(C)= ¾
P( A  B  C ) = P( A)  P( B)  P(C )
=1/24
19. If A is the complementary event of A, prove that P( A) = 1 − P( A)  1
Proof: If A and are mutually exclusive events, such that A  A = S
P( A  A) = P(S )
P( A) + P( A) = 1
P( A) = 1 − P( A)
Since P( A)  0 , it follows that P( A)  1
20. Two fair dice are thrown independently. Three events A, B and C are defined as
follows.
(i) Odd face with the first die
(ii) Odd face with second die
(iii) Sum of the numbers in 2 dice is odd. Are the events A, B and C mutually
independent?
Soln:
P(A)= ½; P(B)= ½; P(C)=1/2
P( A  B) = P( B  C ) = P( A  C ) = 1/ 4
P( A  B  C ) = 0
Since C cannot happen when A and B occur. Therefore Page 9
 (FOUNDATION IN STATISTICS)
P( A  B  C )  P( A) P( B) P(C )
Therefore the events are pairwise independent, but not mutually
independent.

21. Two defective tubes get mixed up with 2 good ones. The tubes are tested, one by one,
until both defectives are found. What is the probability that the last defective tube is
obtained on (i) the second test (ii) the third test and (iii) the fourth test.
Soln:
Let D represent defective and N represent non-defective tube.
(i) P(Second D in the II test)=P(D in the I test and D in the II test)
= P ( D1  D2 )
= P( D1 )  P( D2 ) =1/6

(ii) P(Second D in the III test) = P( D1  N 2  D3orN1  D2  D3 ) =1/3

(iii) P(Second D in the IV test)
= P( D1  N 2  N3  D4 orN1  D2  N3  D4 orN1  N 2  D3  D4 ) = 1 / 2 =
22. If the events A and B are independent then prove that
(i) A and B are independent.

(ii) A and B are independent.

(iii) A and B are independent.

Proof: (i) by Demorgan’s law

A B = A B
P( A  B) = P( A  B)
= 1 − P( A  B)
= 1 − [ P( A) + P( B) − P( A  B)]
= 1 − [ P( A) + P( B) − P( A)( B)]
= P( A) P( B)
Therefore A and B are independent.
(ii) the events A  B and A  B are mutually exclusive.
( A  B )  ( A  B) = B
P( A  B) + P( A  B) = P( B)
P( A  B) = P( B) − P( A  B)
P( A  B) = P( B) − P( A) + P( B)
= P( A).P( B)
Therefore A and B are independent.
(iii) A = ( A  B)  ( A  B)
P( A) = P( A  B) + P( A  B)
P( A  B) = P( A) − P( A  B)
= P( A) P( B)

Therefore A and B are independent.

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23. Show that 2n-(n+1) equations are needed to establish the mutual independence of n
events.
Soln: n events are mutually independent, if they are totally independent when
considered in set of 2,3,…,n events.
Sets of r events can be chosen from the n events in nC r ways.

To establish total independence of r events.

Say A1, A2,…,Ar chosen in any one of the nC r ways.
P( A1 , A2 ,..., Ar ) = P( A1 )  P( A2 )  ...  P( Ar )

Therefore to establish total independence of all the nC r sets, each of r events, we

need nC r equations.
n

Therefore the no.of equations required to establish mutual independence  nC

r =2
r

= nC0 + nC1 + nC2 + .... + nCn − (1 + n)

= (1 + 1)n − (1 + n)
= (2)n − (1 + n)
24. A bold is manufactured by 3 machines A,B and C. A turns out twice as many items as
B, and machines B and C produce equal number of items. 2% of bolts produced by A
and B are defective and 4% of bolts produced by C are defective. All bolts are put into
1 stock pile and 1 is chosen from this pile. What is the probability that it is defective?
Soln:
Let A, B and C be the event in which the item has been produced by machine A, B
and C.
Let D be the event of the item being defective.
P(A)=1/2 , P(B)=P(C)=1/4
P(D/A)=P(D/B)= P(an item is defective, given that A has produced it)
=2/100
P(D/C)=4/100
By theorem total of probability,
P( D) = P( A)  P( D / A) + P( B)  P( D / B) + P(C )  P( D / C )
= 1/40
25. A bag contains 5 red and 3 green balls and a second bag 4 red and 5 green balls. One
of the bags is selected at random and a draw of 2 balls is made from it. What is the
probability that one of them red and the other is green.
Soln:
P(A1)=P(A2)=1/2
B denote the event of selecting one red and one green ball.
P(B/A1)=15/28
P(B/A2)=5/9
The required probability = P(A1) P(B/A1)+ P(A2) P(B/A2)
= 275/504

26. An urn contains 10 white and 3 black balls. Another urn contains 3 white and 5 black
balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the first urn and placed in the second urn
and then 1 ball is taken at random from the latter. What is the probability that it is a
white ball? Page 11
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Soln:
The two balls transferred may be both white or both black or 1 white and 1
black.
Let B1 be the event of drawing 2 white balls from the first urn and B2 be the
event of drawing 2 black balls from it and B3 be the event of drawing 1 white and
1black ball from it.

Let A be the event of drawing a white ball from the second urn after transfer.
P(B1)= 15/26, P(B2)=1/26, P(B3)=10/26,
P(A/B1)=P(drawing a white ball/2 white balls have been transferred)’’
= 5/10.
Similarly, P(A/B2)=3/10 and P(A/B3)=4/10

Therefore P( A) = P( B1 )  P( A / B1 ) + P( B2 )  P( A / B2 ) + P( B3 )  P( A / B3 )
= 59/130
27. A bag contains 5 balls and it is not known how many of them are white. Two balls are
drawn at random from the bag and they are noted to be white. What is the chance that
all the balls in the bag are white?
Soln:
since 2 white balls have been drawn out, the bag must have contained 2, 3, 4
or 5 white balls.
Let B1 be the event of the bag containing 2 white balls, B2 be the event of the
bag containing 3 white balls, B3 be the event of the bag containing 4 white balls and
B4 be the event of the bag containing 5 white balls.
Let A be the event of drawing 2 white balls.
P(A/B1)=1/10; P(A/B2)=3/10; P(A/B3)=3/5; P(A/B4)=1
P(B1)= P(B2)= P(B3)= P(B4)=1/4
By Bayes theorem,
P ( B4 ) P ( A / B4 )
P ( B4 / A) = 4
, i = 1, 2,3, 4
 P( B ) P(A / B )
i =1
i i

=1/2.
28. In a bolt factory, machines A,B and C produce 25, 35 and 40% of the total output
respectively. Of their outputs 5, 4 and 2% respectively are defective bolts. If a bolt is
chosen at random from the combined output, what is the probability that it is
defective? If a bold chosen at random is found to be defective, what is the probability
that it was produced by B?
Soln:
P ( E1 ) = 0.25 ; P ( E2 ) = 0.35 ; P ( E3 ) = 0.40
Let X be the event of drawing defective bolt.
P( X / E1 ) = 0.05
P ( X / E2 ) = 0.04
P ( X / E3 ) = 0.02
By Baye’s theorem
P( E2 ) P( X / E2 )
P( E2 / X ) =
P( E1 ) P( X / E1 ) + P( E2 ) P( X / E2 ) + P( E3 ) P( X / E3 )
=0.406. Page 12
 (FOUNDATION IN STATISTICS)
29. The contents of three urns 1, 2, and 3 are as follows:
Urns White Black Red
Balls
I 1 2 3
II 2 3 1
III 3 1 2
An urn is chosen at random and from it two balls are drawn at random. The two
balls are one red and one white. What is the probability that they come from the
second urn.
Soln:
1
P( B1 ) = P( B2 ) = P( B3 ) =
3
2
P( A / B1 ) =
15
2
P( A / B2 ) =
5
1
P( A / B3 ) =
5
By Baye’s theorem,
P( Bi ) P( A / Bi )
P( Bi / A) = n
, i = 1, 2,..., n
 P( B ) P(A / B )
i =1
i i

P( B2 ) P( A / B2 )
P( B2 / A) = 3
, i = 1, 2,3
 P( B ) P(A / B )
i =1
i i

= 2/11
30. A Given lot of IC chips contains 2% defective chips. Each is tested before delivery.
The tester itself is not totally reliable. Probability of tester says the chip is good when
it is really good is 0.95 and the probability of tester says chip is defective when it is
actually defective is 0.94. If a tested device is indicated to be defective, what is the
probability that it is actually defective.
Soln:
E be the event of chip is actually good and D be the event of tester says it is
good.
P( E ) = 0.02
P( E ) = 1 − P( E ) = 0.98
Given that the probability of tester says the chip is good when it is really good is 0.95
P( D / E ) = 0.95
P( D / E ) = 1 − P( D / E ) = 0.05
P( D / E ) = 0.94
The probability of actually defective
By Baye’s theorem,
P ( E / D)P ( E )
P( E / D) =
P ( E / D)P ( E ) + P( D / E )P( E )
=0.2773.
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31. A certain firm has plant A, B and C producing IC chips. Plant A produces twice the
output from B and B produces twice the output from C. The probability of a non-
defective product produced by A,B and C are respectively 0.85, 0.75 and 0.95. A
customer receives a defective product. Find the probability that it came from plant B.
Soln:
P(A)=1; P(B)=0.5; P(C)=0.25
P(E/A)=0.85 ; P(E/B)=0.75 ; P(E/C)=0.95
P( E / A) = 0.15
P( E / B) = 0.25
P( E / C ) = 0.05
The probability that the customer receives a defective product from plant B is
P ( B ) P ( E /B )
P( B / E ) = =0.4348
P( A) P( E / A) + P( B) P( E /B) + P(C ) P( E /C )
32. There are 3 true coins and 1 false coin with ‘head’ on both sides. A coin is chosen at
random and tossed 4 times. If ‘head’ occurs all the 4 times, what is the probability that
the false coin has been chosen and used?
Soln:
P(T)=P(the coin is a true coin)=3/4
P(F)=P(the coin is a false coin)=1/4
Let A be the event of getting all heads in 4 tosses.
1 1 1 1 1
P( A / T ) =    =
2 2 2 2 16
P( A / F ) = 1
By Baye’ theorem,

P( F )  P( A / F )
P( F / A) =
P( F )  P( A / F ) + P(T )  P( A / T )
= 16/19

33. A coin with is tossed n times. Show that the probability that the number of heads
obtained is even is 0.5 1 + (q − p)n  .
Soln:
P(even no.of heads are obtained)=P(0 head or 2 head or 4 head or …)
=P(0 head or 2 head or 4 heads or …)
= nC0 qn p0 + nC2 qn−2 p2 + nC4 qn−4 p4 + ... --------(1)

( q + p ) = nC0 qn p0 + nC1qn−1 p1 + nC2qn−2 p2 + nC3qn−3 p3 + nC4qn−4 p4 + ... -------(2)

n

( q − p ) = nC0 qn p0 − nC1qn−1 p1 + nC2qn−2 p2 − nC3qn−3 p3 + nC4qn−4 p4 + ... -------(3)

n

Adding (2) and (3),

1+ ( q − p ) = = 2[nC0 qn p0 + nC2 qn−2 p2 + nC4 qn−4 p4 + ...] --------(4)
n

Using (4) in (1),

The required probability = 0.5 1 + (q − p)n 
34. Let X be a discrete RV whose cumulative distribution function is

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