City and Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra Ltd.

Project Feasibility
Report

June 2008
2

Navi Mumbai International Airport

Presented by: May 2010

Washington, DC, USA

 Consultancy Services
for the
Navi Mumbai International Airport

Project Feasibility Study

May 2010

Prepared by:

THE Louis Berger Group, INC.

 Consultancy Services
for the
Navi Mumbai International Airport

Project Feasibility Study

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1-1

1.1  Background .............................................................................................................. 1 
1.2  Country Background & Aviation Profile .................................................................... 3 
1.3  State Background ..................................................................................................... 5 
1.4  Mumbai Metropolitan Region .................................................................................... 6 
1.5  Navi Mumbai ............................................................................................................. 8 
1.6  Navi Mumbai International Airport ............................................................................ 9 

CHAPTER 2 Air Traffic Demand 2-1

2.1  Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 
2.2  MMR Historical Air Traffic Trend .............................................................................. 2 
2.2.1  Annual Passengers ............................................................................................. 2 
2.2.2  Air Cargo Trends ................................................................................................. 5 
2.2.3  Aircraft Movements ............................................................................................. 7 
2.3  MMR Demand Forecast ......................................................................................... 11 
2.3.1  Passenger Forecast for MMR ........................................................................... 11 
2.3.2  Cargo Forecast for MMR ................................................................................... 13 
2.4  NMIA Passenger and Cargo Forecast .................................................................... 16 
2.4.1  NMIA Passenger Forecast ................................................................................ 16 
2.4.2  NMIA Cargo Forecast........................................................................................ 21 
2.4.3  NMIA Aircraft Movement Forecast .................................................................... 23 

CHAPTER 3 Project Description 3-1

3.1  Overview ................................................................................................................... 1 
3.2  Project Site ............................................................................................................... 2 
3.3  Air Traffic Design Parameters .................................................................................. 4 
3.4  Airport Facilities ........................................................................................................ 5 
3.4.1  Runways .............................................................................................................. 7 
3.4.2  Runway Exits....................................................................................................... 7 
3.4.3  Taxiways ............................................................................................................. 8 
3.4.4  Bypass Holding Bays .......................................................................................... 9 
3.4.5  Navigational Aids............................................................................................... 10 
3.4.6  Aircraft Parking Aprons ..................................................................................... 10 
3.4.7  Passenger Terminal Building ............................................................................ 15 
3.4.8  Air Cargo Building ............................................................................................. 21 
3.4.9  Roadway System .............................................................................................. 21 
3.4.10  Vehicular and Cargo Parking .......................................................................... 23 

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 3.4.11  Aircraft Maintenance Hangar Facilities ............................................................ 23 
3.4.12  Technical Building and Control Tower ............................................................. 24 
3.4.13  Air Rescue and Fire Fighting ........................................................................... 24 
3.4.14  Fuel Farm ........................................................................................................ 25 
3.4.15  Ground Handling Equipment Maintenance ..................................................... 26 
3.4.16  Catering Facility ............................................................................................... 26 
3.4.17  Airport Maintenance Area ................................................................................ 27 
3.4.18  Power Supply .................................................................................................. 28 
3.5  Project Execution .................................................................................................... 28 
3.6  Construction Material .............................................................................................. 28 
3.7  Construction Environment ...................................................................................... 29 

CHAPTER 4 Project Phasing and Cost 4-1

4.1  Overview ................................................................................................................... 1 
4.2  Project Phasing ........................................................................................................ 1 
4.3  Implementation Programme ..................................................................................... 2 
4.4  Project Cost .............................................................................................................. 3 
4.4.1  Phase 1 Cost Estimate ........................................................................................ 4 
4.4.2  Phase 2 Cost Estimate ........................................................................................ 6 
4.4.3  Phase 3 Cost Estimate ........................................................................................ 7 
4.4.4  Phase 4 Cost Estimate ........................................................................................ 9 

CHAPTER 5 Preliminary Financial Feasibility Analysis 5-1

5.1  Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 
5.2  Financial Analysis Methodology ............................................................................... 1 
5.3  Primary Assumptions ................................................................................................ 3 
5.4 Development Plans .................................................................................................. 5
5.5  Operating Revenues ................................................................................................. 5 
5.5.1  Aeronautical Revenues ....................................................................................... 6 
5.5.2  Non-Aeronautical Revenues ............................................................................... 7 
5.6  Operating Expenses (OPEX) .................................................................................... 9 
5.7  Results .................................................................................................................... 11 

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 TABLE INDEX

CHAPTER 2 Air Traffic Demand 2-1

Table 2-1  Annual Commercial Passengers, CSIA (in ‘000 of Passengers) ...................... 4 
Table 2-2  Breakdown of International Passengers, CSIA (in ‘000 of Passengers) .......... 5 
Table 2-3  Historical Air Cargo & Mail, CSIA...................................................................... 6 
Table 2-4  Historical Commercial Aircraft Movements, CSIA............................................. 7 
Table 2-5  Breakdown of Total Aircraft Movements for 2006-07, CSIA ............................. 8 
Table 2-6  Summary of Medium Scenario Passenger Forecast – MMR Airport System . 12 
Table 2-7  Summary of Medium Scenario Air Cargo Forecast – MMR Airport System ... 14 
Table 2-8  Summary of Medium Scenario Mail Forecast – MMR Airport System ............ 15 
Table 2-9  Allocation of Passenger Demand – Medium Forecast .................................... 17 
Table 2-10  Summary of Passenger Demand Forecast – NMIA ........................................ 18 
Table 2-11  Percent of Passengers in Peak Month ............................................................ 20 
Table 2-12  Average Day Peak Month Forecast – Passengers ......................................... 20 
Table 2-13  Peak Hour Passenger Forecast ...................................................................... 21 
Table 2-14  Allocation of Air Cargo Among MMR Airports – Medium Forecast (tonnes) ... 22 
Table 2-15  Summary of Air Cargo Forecast – NMIA (tonnes) ........................................... 22 
Table 2-16  Summary of Mail Forecast – NMIA (tonnes) ................................................... 23 
Table 2-17  Forecast of Average Passengers per Aircraft ................................................. 25 
Table 2-18  Summary of Aircraft Movement Forecast – NMIA ........................................... 25 
Table 2-19  Average Day Peak Month Forecast – Commercial ATM ................................. 27 
Table 2-20  Peak Hour Commercial ATM Forecast ............................................................ 27 
Table 2-21  Peak Hour Total ATM Forecast ....................................................................... 27 

CHAPTER 3 Project Description 3-1

Table 3-1  NMIA Air Traffic Forecast Summary .................................................................... 4 
Table 3-2  Number Passengers per Development Phase .................................................. 15 

CHAPTER 4 Project Phasing and Cost Estimates 4-1

Table 4-1  Phase-wise Airport Development ........................................................................ 2 
Table 4-2  Development Stages ........................................................................................... 3 
Table 4-3  Project Cost by Phases ....................................................................................... 4 
Table 4-4  Cost Estimates Phase 1 – Opening Phase ......................................................... 5 

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Table 4-5  Cost Estimates Phase 2 – Short Term ............................................................... 7 
Table 4-6  Cost Estimates Phase 3 – Medium Term ............................................................ 8 
Table 4-7  Cost Estimates Phase 4 – Long Term ................................................................. 9 

CHAPTER 5 Financial Feasibility Analysis 5-1

Table 5-1  Major Revenue Categories Projected ................................................................. 5 
Table 5-2  Passenger Service Charge ................................................................................. 6 
Table 5-3  Landing, Housing and Parking Charges .............................................................. 7 
Table 5-4  Assumptions for Estimating Non-Aeronautical Revenues ................................... 8 
Table 5-5  Estimate of Areas Developed and Utilized (m2) .................................................. 8 
Table 5-6  Assumptions for Estimating Operational Expenditures ....................................... 9 
Table 5-7  Projection of Number of Employees .................................................................. 10 
Table 5-8  Wage and Benefits per Category of Employee ................................................. 10 
Table 5-9  Summary of the Financial Feasibility Analysis .................................................. 11 
Table 5-10  Summary of the Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................... 12 

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 FIGURE INDEX

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1-1

Figure 1-1  Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) ................................................................ 2 
Figure 1-2  State of Maharashtra ......................................................................................... 5 
Figure 1-3  Mumbai Metropolitan Region ............................................................................ 6 
Figure 1-4  Location of Navi Mumbai ................................................................................... 8 

CHAPTER 2 Air Traffic Demand 2-1

Figure 2-1  Annual Commercial Passengers, CSIA ........................................................... 4 
Figure 2-2  Comparison of Annual Passenger Growth Rates, CSIA & National ................ 5 
Figure 2-3  Breakdown of Total Air Cargo in 2007-08, CSIA ............................................. 6 
Figure 2-4  Breakdown of International Air Cargo by Commodity, CSIA ........................... 7 
Figure 2-5  Annual Commercial Aircraft Movements, CSIA ............................................... 8 
Figure 2-6  Distribution of Total Arriving Aircraft by ICAO Code ...................................... 10 
Figure 2-7  Distribution of International and Domestic Arriving Aircraft by ICAO Code ... 10 
Figure 2-8  Comparison of Forecast Scenarios – MMR Airport System .......................... 12 
Figure 2-9  Comparison of Cargo Forecast Scenarios – MMR Airport System ............... 15 
Figure 2-10  Allocation of Passengers, MMR Airport System ............................................ 18 
Figure 2-11  Comparison of Forecast Scenarios – NMIA .................................................. 19 
Figure 2-12  Average Number of Passenger per ATM, CSIA ............................................ 24 
Figure 2-13  Comparison of Commercial ATM Forecast Scenarios – NMIA ..................... 26 

CHAPTER 3 Project Description 3-1

Figure 3-1 Navi Mumbai International Airport Location..................................................... 3 
Figure 3-1 NMIA Airport Layout Plan – Long-Term Phase ............................................... 6 
Figure 3-2 NMIA Runway System .................................................................................... 7 
Figure 3-3 Bypass Holding Bays ...................................................................................... 9 
Figure 3-4 Commercial Parking Apron ........................................................................... 12 
Figure 3-5 Long-Term Aircraft Parking ........................................................................... 13 
Figure 3-6 General Aviation Apron ................................................................................. 13 
Figure 3-7 Cargo Apron .................................................................................................. 14 
Figure 3-8 Terminal Area Plan ........................................................................................ 15 

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Figure 3-9 Level 5 – Check-in ......................................................................................... 18 
Figure 3-10 Level 2 – Centre of Concourse ...................................................................... 19 
Figure 3-11 Level 4 – Access to Baggage Claim .............................................................. 20 
Figure 3-12 Level 3 – Baggage Claim / Arrivals Lobby..................................................... 21 
Figure 3-13 Aircraft Maintenance Hangar Facilities .......................................................... 24 
Figure 3-14 Air Rescue and Firefighting Facility ............................................................... 25 
Figure 3-15 Fuel Farm ...................................................................................................... 25 
Figure 3-16 Ground Handling Equipment Maintenance Facility ....................................... 26 
Figure 3-17 Catering Facility ............................................................................................. 27 
Figure 3-18 Airport Maintenance Area .............................................................................. 27 
Figure 3-19 Power Station ................................................................................................ 28 

CHAPTER 4 Project Phasing and Cost Estimates 4-1

Figure 4-1  Project Implementation Programme ................................................................ 3 

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Table of Contents
Chapter 1.
Introduction
 CHAPTER 1
Introduction

1.1 Background

Mumbai is primarily served by Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA). CSIA handles
nearly 23% air traffic and 31% cargo of the country. With the exception of last year, CSIA
has experienced unprecedented annual growth in the last few years reflective of the
country’s economic boom. However, this landlocked airport, with no room to spare, is
severely restrained on the air and landside. Additionally, the airport has undertaken a 2
billion dollar expansion initiative, starting December, 2006, to improve the existing conditions
and to increase overall capacity of the facility. It is anticipated that CSIA, in its expanded
form, will reach saturation point by 2012-2013.

There is an imperative requirement for a greenfield airport in Mumbai to sustain the

requirements of the booming Indian aviation sector. Navi Mumbai, one of the seven
municipalities in MMR, was selected as appropriate location to develop this proposed airport.
Navi Mumbai is being developed by City Industrial and Development Corporation (CIDCO)
was created to meet the growing needs of MMR. It is a planned township to accommodate
future business and residential facilities. The Figure 1.1 shows MMR and the location of
CSIA and the proposed Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA).

Considering the air travel need of the city population, City & Industrial Development
Corporation (CIDCO) as a part of the Navi Mumbai development plan had earlier proposed a
domestic airport. With the initial site feasibility report conducted by M/s. RITES, a location
near Panvel was selected. Further, a Techno-economic Feasibility Study (TEFS) was
conducted through M/s. Carter & Burgess Inc. (USA) for the development of a domestic
airport and submitted to the Government of India in 1997. Realising the problems at other
identical sites in M.M.R. and on behest of the Government of Maharashtra, the proposal of
building a domestic airport was upgraded to international airport and accordingly a
‘Technical Feasibility Report’ was submitted to the Government of India in 1998.

The Committee constituted in 1998 by the Ministry of Civil Aviation for the second airport of
Mumbai examined the Navi Mumbai site along with sites in Rewas-Mandwa and Mhapan in
Sindhudurg District and recommended the Rewas-Mandwa site as the most suitable site, in
2000. The Navi Mumbai site, while considered suitable for a domestic airport, was
determined unsuitable for an international airport as no parallel runway had been proposed.

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 Figure 1-1
Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR)

Existing
Airport

Proposed
Airport

CIDCO then revised its original proposal incorporating the provision for a parallel runway
and made a presentation to officials of central and state government for the development of
Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA). The proposal of CIDCO was considered
technically & financially viable, environmentally less disturbing and supported by the local
people. Thereafter CIDCO, through the Government of Maharashtra (GOM), submitted the
proposal enclosing a pre-feasibility report detailing air travel demand, project facilities,
phasing, costing and financial viability with dual runway to the Ministry of Civil Aviation
(MOCA), Government of India (GOI).

The Ministry of Civil Aviation in turn through the Airport Authority of India (AAI), constituted a
technical team to examine the pre-feasibility report. The team concluded that the Navi
Mumbai site is operationally feasible for locating the second International Airport for Mumbai,
and suggested to carryout studies such as geological/geotechnical, hydrological, traffic and
environmental studies, etc.

A techno-economic feasibility study was conducted in 2001, by CIDCO to address the issues
raised by the above technical team which includes geological/geo-technical, hydrological,
aeronautical, traffic and environmental studies and submitted the report to AAI. All the
clarifications sought by AAI were reconciled and finally narrowed down to only two points i.e.

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the provision of parallel independent runways and carrying out a simulation study to
establish the conflict free operation of the Mumbai and Navi Mumbai Airports. CIDCO carried
out the exercise and accommodated parallel independent runways with 1035 m spacing
between the centreline of two runways.

Technical Co-operation Bureau (TCB) of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

with their sub contractor NAV CANADA developed a simulation study in two parts: the first
being a fast time simulation using TAAM and the second part a real–time simulation under
the supervision of Airports Authority of India. The simulation study concluded that with
appropriate procedures in place, simultaneous and independent operation of both airports is
safe and feasible. Upon the completion of above requisite studies, the “In-Principle” approval
for the development of the Navi Mumbai International Airport on Public-Private- Partnership
basis is granted by the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MOCA), Govt. of India and Govt. of
Maharashtra.

1.2 Country Background & Aviation Profile

The proposed new airport at Navi Mumbai should cater for the future aviation needs of MMR
in particular and Maharashtra in general. India with some 1.1 billion people, diverse regions,
and a vibrant democracy has been making progress on a scale, size and pace that is
unprecedented in its own history. In the nearly 60 years since its independence, the country
has been successful on a number of fronts:

4 It has maintained electoral democracy

4 Banished the spectre of famines

4 Reduced absolute poverty by more than half

4 Dramatically improved literacy

4 Vastly improved health conditions

4 Become one of the world’s fastest growing economies with average growth rates
of 8% over the past three years

4 And, finally, India has reached a steady state in population growth

For the third successive year, the Indian economy has registered a highly impressive growth
during fiscal 2005-06. Sustained manufacturing activity and impressive performance of the
services sector with reasonable support from the recovery in agricultural activity have added
greater momentum to this growth process. After recording some slowdown in the third
quarter (October-December) of 2005-06, real gross domestic product (GDP) registered a
sharp increase in the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2005-06 benefiting from a pick-up in
almost all segments of agriculture, industry and services. According to the revised estimates
released by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) in May 2006, real GDP accelerated
from 7.5 percent in 2004-05 to 8.4 percent during 2005-06. The Indian economy has, thus,

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recorded an average growth of over 8 percent in the latest three years i.e. before the global
slow down. However, the same growth rate is recovered in the 2010-11. All this growth
requires an adequate infrastructure to sustain and mobilize the economy. One of the key
areas of infrastructure improvement is the aviation sector.

India is one of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world. The Airport Authority of
India manages a total of 128 airports in the country, which include 13 international airports, 7
custom airports, 80 domestic airports and 28 civil enclaves. There are over 450 airports and
1091 registered aircraft in the country. The genesis of civil aviation in India goes back to
December 1912 when the first domestic air route between Karachi and Delhi became
operational. In the early fifties, all airlines operating in the country were merged into either
Indian Airlines or Air India and by virtue of the Air Corporations Act 1953, this monopoly
continued for the next forty years.

In 1990s, the aviation industry in India saw some important changes. The Air Corporations
Act was abolished to end the monopoly of the public sector and private airlines were
reintroduced. With the liberalization of the Indian aviation sector, the industry has witnessed
a transformation with the entry of the privately owned full service airlines and low cost
carriers. Airlines like Jet Airways and Air Sahara, among others subsequently established
themselves as major players. In 2006, the private carriers accounted for around 75% share
of the domestic aviation market. The sector has also seen a significant increase in the
number of domestic air travel passengers. Some of the factors that have resulted in higher
demand for air transport in India include the growing middle class and their purchasing
power, low airfares offered by low cost carriers like Air Deccan, the growth of the tourism
industry in India, increasing outbound travel from India, etc.

International air links with India also witnessed major growth over the years. In addition to Air
India, Indian Airlines began serving many overseas destinations from major Indian cities.
India set up bilateral air services agreements with over 100 countries, while air links were
already in place with more than fifty countries. In 2003, the government allowed private
domestic airlines to operate services to SAARC nations through an open skies agreement.
An open skies agreement with ASEAN countries was also established, allowing for a more
liberal air services agreement.

The Indian aviation sector can be broadly divided into the following main categories:

1. Scheduled air transport service is an air transport service undertaken between two or
more places and operated according to a published timetable. It includes:

4 Domestic airlines, which provide scheduled flights within India and to select
international destinations. Air India, Air Deccan, Spice Jet, Kingfisher Airline and
IndiGo are some of the domestic players in the industry.

4 International airlines, which operate scheduled international air services to and

from India.

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 2. Non-scheduled air transport service is an air transport service other than the
scheduled one and may be on charter basis and/or non-scheduled basis. The
operator is not permitted to publish time schedule and issue tickets to passengers.

3. Air cargo services are air transportation of cargo and mail. It may be on scheduled or
non-scheduled basis. These operations are to destinations within India. At present,
there are 2 scheduled private airlines (Jet Airways and Air Sahara), which provide
regular domestic air services along with Indian Airlines. In addition there are 47 non-
scheduled operators providing air-taxi/non-scheduled air transport services.

GOI has liberalized policies with regard to private participations in airports. Government
regulations have been modified to enable greenfield international airports to be established
and operated in Public - Private Partnership (PPP). The proposed NMIA will be another PPP
scheme under the GOI’s umbrella of airport expansion plans. CSIA is an excellent example
of a successful PPP initiative.

1.3 State Background

Maharashtra is India's third largest state in area and Figure 1-2

second largest in population. Located in western India, State of Maharashtra
Maharashtra is bordered by the states of Gujarat, Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa
and the Union territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli. The
Arabian Sea makes up the state's western coast.
Mumbai, the capital city of Maharashtra, is India's largest
city and a prime centre of economy and culture.

1.3.1 Geography

Maharashtra encompasses an area of 308,000 km², and

is the third largest state in India. The Arabian Sea makes up Maharashtra's west coast. The
Western Ghats, better known as Sahyadri, are a hilly range running parallel to the coast, at
an average elevation of 1,200 metres. To the west of these hills lie the Konkann coastal
plains, 50–80 kilometres in width. To the east of the Ghats lies the flat Deccan Plateau. The
Western Ghats form one of the three watersheds of India, from which many South Indian
rivers originate, notable among them being Godavari River, and Krishna, which flow
eastward into the Bay of Bengal, forming one of the greatest river basins in India.

The Ghats are also the source of numerous small rivers which flow westwards, emptying into
the Arabian Sea. To the east are major rivers like Vainganga, which flow to the south and
eventually into the Bay of Bengal.

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There are many multi-state irrigation projects in development, including Godavari River
Basin Irrigation Projects. The plateau is composed of black basalt soil, rich in humus. This
soil is well suited for cultivating cotton, and hence is often called black cotton soil.

1.3.2 Economy

Maharashtra's is India's leading industrial state contributing 13% of national industrial output.
64.14% of the people are employed in agriculture and allied activities. Almost 46% of the
GSDP is contributed by industry. Major industries in Maharashtra include chemical and allied
products, electrical and non-electrical machinery, textiles, petroleum and allied products.
Other important industries include metal products, wine, jewellery, pharmaceuticals,
engineering goods, machine tools, steel and iron castings and plastic wares. Food crops
include mangoes, grapes, bananas, oranges, wheat, rice, jowar, bajra, and pulses. Cash
crops include groundnut, cotton, sugarcane, turmeric, and tobacco. The net irrigated area
totals 33,500 square kilometres.

1.4 Mumbai Metropolitan Region

The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) Figure 1-3

spreads over an area of 4355 sq. km. and Mumbai Metropolitan Region
comprises Greater Mumbai, Navi Mumbai,
Kalyan, Thane, Vasai-Virar. The Population
of MMR was 18.98 million in 2001. The
projected population of MMR in 2011 is
expected to 23.5 million and over 30 million
beyond 2022.

Mumbai, formerly Bombay, is the capital of

the State of Maharashtra. With an estimated
population of thirteen million, it is the second
most populous city in the world. Along with
the neighbouring suburbs of Navi Mumbai
and Thane, it forms, has a population of
nineteen million, the world's fifth most
populous metropolitan area. Mumbai lies on
the west coast of India and has a deep
natural harbour. Mumbai's port and JNPT
port handle over half of India's maritime
cargo.

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1.4.1 Geography

Mumbai is located on seven, now-merged, islands which are Isle of Bombay, Mazagaon,
Mahim, Colaba, Old Woman's Island, Parel, and Salsette Island. Mumbai lies at the mouth of
Ulhas River off the western coast of India, in the coastal region known as the Konkan. Much
of Mumbai is just above sea level, and the average elevation ranges from 10 m (33 ft) to
15 m (49 ft). Northern Mumbai is hilly, and the highest point in the city is 450 metres (1,450
feet). Mumbai spans a total area of 603 km² (233 sq mi).

1.4.2 Economy

Mumbai is India's largest city. Mumbai serves as an important economic hub of the country,
contributing 10% of all factory employment, 40% of all income tax collections, 60% of all
customs duty collections, 20% of all central excise tax collections, 40% of India's foreign
trade and 40 billion Rupees (US$ 1 billion) in corporate taxes.

Mumbai's per-capita income is Rs. 48,954 which is almost three times the national average.
Many foreign banks and financial institutions also have branches in this area, the World
Trade Centre (Mumbai) being the most prominent one. Up until the 1980s, Mumbai owed its
prosperity largely to textile mills and the seaport, but the local economy has since been
diversified to include engineering, diamond-polishing, healthcare and information technology.

Mumbai is home to the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, and most of India's specialized,
technical industries, having a modern industrial infrastructure and vast, skilled human
resources. Rising venture capital firms, start-ups and established brands work in aerospace,
optical engineering, medical research, computers and electronic equipment of all varieties,
shipbuilding and salvaging, and renewable energy and power.

The media industry is another major employer in Mumbai. Most of India's major television
and satellite networks, as well as its major publishing houses, are headquartered in Mumbai.

Along with the rest of India, Mumbai, its commercial capital, has witnessed an economic
boom since the liberalisation of 1991, the finance boom in the mid-nineties and the IT,
export, services and BPO boom in this decade. The middle class in Mumbai is the segment
most impacted by this boom and is the driver behind the consequent consumer boom.

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1.5 Navi Mumbai

Navi Mumbai, formerly known as New Figure 1-4

Bombay, is a twin city of Mumbai, India. It is Location of Navi Mumbai
being developed since 1970, and is one of the
largest planned cities in the world, with a total
area of 344 km² and 163 km² under the
jurisdiction of the Navi Mumbai Municipal
Corporation (NMMC). Navi Mumbai lies on the
mainland on the eastern seaboard of Thane
Creek. The city limits stretch from Airoli near
Thane in the north, to Uran in the south. The
length of the city is almost the same as that of
Mumbai. The Vashi and the Airoli Bridges
connect Navi Mumbai to Mumbai. The harbour
line from Mumbai CST to Panvel provides the
commuter access to the city. Similarly, the city
is connected to Thane by a commuter rail
connecting Vashi, Nerul & Panvel area. The
city, planned for a population of 2 million and
employment of 0.8 million, is expected to
relieve the congestion and reduce the deterioration of civic amenities of Mumbai.

1.5.1 Geography

Navi Mumbai spreads over parts of two districts of Maharashtra; Thane, and Raigad. The
region is hilly in some parts, and certain areas of the region are protected wetlands. Unlike
its bigger neighbour, the city is sparsely populated.

Navi Mumbai is a part of South Konkan coast line. This coastal line joins Sahyadri mountain
ranges to the south and 50 to 100m high hills to the east. Thus the Navi Mumbai area lies
between mountain ranges and a coast line. Its coordinates are between Latitude 19.5’ and
19.15’, Longitude 72.55’ and 73.5’. Along the east, there are small hills running in a North-
South direction. This land forms part of the Konkan Region. The narrow belt of land starts at
Dighe in the North and ends at Kalundre in the South.

1.5.2 Administration

1.5.2.1 CIDCO

When Navi Mumbai was created in 1970s CIDCO was the only authority that looked after the
planning and development and maintenance of the city. CIDCO prepared developmental
plan for Navi Mumbai covering 95 villages from Thane and Raigad district. For the first ten

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years of the project CIDCO acted as the planning and administrative body, as well as the
developer and builder for the project. Service Charge on property, land, commercial, water
were payable to CIDCO. The 14 nodes which CIDCO created where named Airoli, Ghansoli,
Kopar Khairane, Vashi, Sanpada, Nerul, CBD Belapur, Kharghar, Kalamboli, Kamothe, New
Panvel, Ulwe, Pushpak and Dronagiri. Each of the nodes is divided into groups. These
groups are blocks of one or more sector in each of the node.

Initially only Vashi, Nerul, CBD Belapur, Airoli, Kalamboli, and New Panvel were developed
by CIDCO and build infrastructure for housing, school, and community centre roads. But
after the arrival of Harbour Line in1991s there was increase in population thereby
necessitating the development of other Nodes, such as Kharghar, Ghansoli, Koparkhairane,
Kamothe, Dronagiri. CIDCO revised its development strategy in which the physical and
social infrastructure were provided by the corporation and the land were allotted to
developers for the construction of housing and these seven nodes were developed mostly by
the participation of private developers.

1.5.2.2 Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation

In 17 December 1991 Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation (NMMC) was constituted by the
State Government for maintaining some of the developed nodes of Navi Mumbai. The local
self-government started on 1 January 1992. NMMC was handed 7 of the 14 nodes of the
Navi Mumbai project area for its jurisdiction. However, CIDCO, as a Planning Authority has a
right on the open plots in these five nodes. The 7 nodes are Belapur, Nerul, Sanpada, Vashi,
Koperkhairane, Ghansoli, and Airoli are in the jurisdiction of Navi Mumbai Municipal
Corporation since 1998.

The municipal corporation is headed by Municipal commissioner and an elected Mayor.

There are 64 electoral wards in Navi Mumbai. A corporator is elected in each of the wards.
All the nodes under Municipal Corporation come under Thane District.

The newly developed nodes of Navi Mumbai on the south side like Kharghar, Kalamboli,
Kamothe, New Panvel, and Ulwe in Raigad District are still maintained by CIDCO and don't
come under NMMC jurisdiction.

Navi Mumbai Municipal Transport Undertaking or NMMT Undertaking is the local transport
service operated by the Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation in the city of Navi Mumbai and
adjoining areas of Dombivli, Badlapur, Uran, Panvel, Thane, Kalyan and Mumbai.

1.6 Navi Mumbai International Airport

The location of the proposed airport at Navi Mumbai has been considered on several
parameters. Prominent among these is the fact that Navi Mumbai is expected to absorb the
future growth in population, business and commercial activity of the region. The availability
of physical and social infrastructure coupled with environment less disturbing, minimum

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rehabilitation & re-settlement and 80% of the land in the possession of the Corporation
makes the Navi Mumbai International Airport project technically suitable and financially
attractive through public-private participation.

The proposed airport at Navi Mumbai is located near Panvel Town on NH4B at a distance of
35 km from the existing Sahar International Airport in Mumbai. A total area of about 2054 Ha
is earmarked for the development of Navi Mumbai International Airport consisting of airport
zone and the area required for offsite infrastructure such as; diversion and training of rivers,
construction of approach roads, railways, interchanges and laying of utility lines. The airport
zone is about 1615 Ha consisting of an on-airport area of about 1200 Ha for aeronautical
activities and an off-airport area of about 415 Ha for non-aeronautical activities related to the
airport, accommodating the physical, social, institutional, residential and commercial
supporting infrastructure. The balance area of about 439 Ha is required for diversion and
training of rivers, construction of approach roads & railway, interchanges and utility services.

The airport site is presently accessible by an existing four lane road called National
Highway-4B from the east side, State Highway-54 which runs on the southern boundary of
airport as well as a four lane concrete road called Aamra Marg from the west side. The
airport will be made accessible by constructing interchanges on the NH4B as well as on
Aamra Marg for smooth and speedy entry and exit from the airport. The existing Mankurd-
Belapur-Panvel Commuter Railway line passes on the northeast of the airport area and the
nearest station is Khandeshwar located at a distance of less than 1 km. The airport zone is
also proposed to be connected to Belapur, Khandeshwar, Mansarowar located on the above
commuter railway line. The other commuter line called Nerul-Uran railway line is under
construction and the nearest station to approach the airport is Targhar located at a distance
of 1.5 km from the airport boundary. Panvel Rly. Station on Central/Kokan Rly. is located at
a distance of 1.5 km from the airport site which will provide the rail accessibility at the
regional, state and national level.

In accordance with the “In principle” approval obtained from the Union Govt., the project is
proposed to be executed on the basis of public-private-partnership (PPP). Accordingly, a
Special Purpose Company (SPC) will be incorporated as private company, under the
Companies Act, 1956 in which 26% equity will be held by CIDCO/AAI and the rest with the
strategic partner to be selected through the public bidding process. The SPC will raise the
required resources, design, build, market, manage and operate, and maintain the airport
during the concession period. The project will be transferred back to the Govt. at the
expiration of the concession period.

The Navi Mumbai International Airport will support the rapidly growing air travel needs of the
Mumbai Metropolitan Region. It is expected to handle 4.8 million passengers in its first
operational year and will be more than double to 10.6 million the following year. It will be
able to handle 33 million by 2020 and 61 million by 2030.

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 Chapter 2.
Air Traffic Demand
 CHAPTER 2
Air Traffic Demand

2.1 Introduction

This chapter of report presents the air traffic forecast of the number of passengers, aircraft
operations, and cargo, based on a market analysis of the growth potential for NMIA.

The specific objective of the demand analysis is to prepare detailed traffic forecasts over a
25-year period. These forecasts have been prepared under three scenarios (Pessimistic,
Probable and Optimistic) and include the following:

4 Annual commercial passengers (breakdown among international, domestic and

transit).

4 Enplaned and deplaned domestic and international cargo (air freight and air mail)
tonnage, breakdown between freighter cargo and belly cargo.

4 Annual aircraft movements (ATM) showing a breakdown among commercial

passenger, freighter, and others (general aviation and military).

4 Annual commercial aircraft movements (ATM) (breakdown between scheduled,

non-scheduled, as well as a breakdown for low cost carriers).

4 Annual commercial aircraft movements (ATM) breakdown by type of aircraft

(according to the ICAO classification).

4 Average day in the peak month and peak hour for passengers and aircraft
movements.

4 Modal split of arriving and departing passengers (private car, taxi, bus, train, etc.)

Each of the above items is forecasted on an annual basis up through 2031. More general
indicative forecasts are also presented up to 2041.

Forecasts are carried out in fiscal years, which run from April to March. For purposes of this
analysis, it is now assumed that NMIA will begin operations towards the end of 2013 or early
2014. This implies the following planning phases:

4 Phase 1 (short-term) Opening to 2017-18

4 Phase 2 (medium-term) 2018-19 to 2022-23

4 Phase 3 (long-term) 2023-24 to 2031-32

4 Ultimate Capacity: 2041-42

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2.2 MMR Historical Air Traffic Trend

This section of the report presents a summary analysis of the historical traffic data for CSIA
for the period between 1980-81 and 2007-08, including annual passengers, cargo and
aircraft movements, with breakdowns per type of aviation. The focus is on presenting data
that is used directly in the forecast model. A full presentation of the analysis of historical air
traffic trends can be found in the Mumbai Region Air Transport Profile (Task A3) Report.

2.2.1 Annual Passengers

India has been experiencing a major expansion of the air transportation industry. The total
number of commercial passengers using Indian airports almost doubled over the four years
between 2004-05 and 2007-08 from 59 to more than 116 million.1 This growth has averaged
24.4% per year and has been particularly high for domestic traffic.

The driving forces behind this rapid growth in air traffic are:

1. Deregulation of the aviation sector: A policy of liberalization of international bilateral

agreements has opened the sector to more domestic and international airlines and it
has coincided with a lowering of the cost base for the sector by reducing a number of
taxes and charges. This combination has resulted in a more competitive environment
and lower fares for aviation services and a more dynamic sector of the economy.

2. Positive macro economic trends: Recent years have seen a relatively high growth in
GDP driven by domestic demand and exports including those of high tech industries.
Together, they have resulted in an increased use of air travel by the business sector
and an expanding middle class with discretionary disposable income willing to travel
to domestic and international destinations by air. Business persons and individuals
are increasingly making use of domestic and international shipping air cargo
services.

3. Tourism: Foreign tourists have discovered India. The last few years have seen a
rapid growth of foreign visitors with double digit annual growth rates in visitors (18%
per annum between 2003 and 2006). As indicated above, the increasing growth of
the middle class will be a major factor in the domestic tourism industry, which also
feeds the growth of aviation services.

4. The Emergence of Low Cost and Premium Service Carriers: Several Low Cost
Carriers (LCCs) have started services in the region in recent years and many new
ones have announced or are considering initiating services. The experience in other
continents during the past two decades demonstrates that the potential for LCC
traffic growth is huge, with a combination of low fares and higher disposable income.
These carriers are particularly important in the case of major markets such as
Mumbai’s, where the emergence of LCCs services can generate latent demand way

1
All traffic statistics in this report are presented in fiscal years, which run from April to March.

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 above any prior experience anywhere in the world. In addition to LCCs in India, other
airlines have been very successful in establishing themselves as a high service
premium brand, emphasizing another market segment, and thereby also helping
increase demand by offering reliability, frequency and quality.

Commercial air service to the Mumbai Metropolitan Region is currently concentrated in the
Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA). This airport handles the highest passenger
traffic volumes in the country, surpassing 25 million annual passengers during this past fiscal
year (2007-08) and accounting for close to 22% of the total number of passengers handled
by Indian airports.

Table 2-1 and Figure 2-1 show the historical trends for the CSIA in terms of the number of
international and domestic commercial passengers between 1980-81 and 2007-08. This
data permits the following conclusions:

4 CSIA experienced relatively modest slow growth in the number of passengers

over the two decades preceding the liberalization of the Indian air transportation
industry during 2003-04, doubling from 6.4 to 13.3 million passengers (at an
annual average compound growth rate of 3.5%).

4 Though the overall trend during those two decades was generally positive, there
was significant year to year variation, with temporary declines in traffic during the
economic recession of the early 1990’s and in the period immediately following
the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
4 From 2004-05 to 2007-08, the impact of the liberalization of the market was quite
spectacular with annual growth rates averaging over 18%, as traffic has almost
doubled once again in the space of only four years.
4 This growth trend has been interrupted during the current year (2008-09); initially
by spiking fuel prices last summer, followed by the impact of the worldwide
financial crises.

4 During both previous periods, the number of domestic passengers had grown at
over twice the rate of international passengers, but it is also the traffic segment
most affected by the current crisis.

Though it is not indicated in these tables, this boom period seems to have recently come to
an end as the industry was hit hard by high fuel costs this past summer and the current
worldwide financial crisis. Traffic figures for the first six months of the 2008-09 fiscal year
indicate that while international passengers have continue to increase by 6.2% compared to
those same six months during 2007, domestic passengers actually declined by -8.0%.

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 Table 2-1
Annual Commercial Passengers, CSIA (in ‘000 of Passengers)

Year International Domestic Total Growth

1980-1981 2,638 2,416 5,054
1990-1991 4,338 3,764 8,102
2000-2001 5,175 7,003 12,177 5.3%
2001-2002 4,765 6,527 11,291 -7.3%
2002-2003 5,088 7,172 12,260 8.6%
2003-2004 5,336 7,948 13,284 8.4%
2004-2005 6,088 9,577 15,665 17.9%
2005-2006 6,728 11,682 18,410 17.5%
2006-2007 7,347 14,902 22,249 20.9%
2007-2008 7,984 17,881 25,865 16.3%
2008-2009 * 8,227 15,384 23,611 -8.7%
GAGR
1980-2003 3.1% 5.3% 4.3%
2003-2007 10.6% 22.5% 18.1%
* 2008-09 estimated based on data for first 10 months

Figure 2-1
Annual Commercial Passengers, CSIA

30

25 Internat.
Domestic
Annual Pax (millions)

20 Total

15

10

0
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09

A further important trend becomes apparent when direct international transit passengers are
broken out. As can be seen in Table 2-2, during the current boom in the air transportation
market, while international passengers with their origin or destination in Mumbai have
increased by over 12% per annum, international transit passengers has actually declined
significantly. This decline has taken place primarily over the past two years. It should be
noted that these transit figures do not include transfer passengers connecting to an
international carrier from a domestic carrier and vice-versa.

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 Table 2-2
Breakdown of International Passengers, CSIA
(in ‘000 of Passengers)

Year O/D Mumbai International Total

Embarked Disemb. Transit Pax
2003-2004 2,532 2,285 519 5,336
2004-2005 2,864 2,636 588 6,088
2005-2006 3,191 2,916 621 6,728
2006-2007 3,562 3,224 560 7,347
2007-2008 4,055 3,591 338 7,984
GAGR
2003-2008 12.5% 12.0% -10.2% 10.6%

The overall trends for CSIA have followed a similar pattern as those at the national level;
though with somewhat lower growth rates in recent years (see Figure 2-2). Much of this
difference in growth rates has been taken place over the past four or five years, during which
already consolidated airports like CSIA, Delhi and Chennai have naturally grown at a
somewhat lower rate than many of the traditionally secondary airports that began the current
decade with very low traffic levels.

Figure 2-2
Comparison of Annual Passenger Growth Rates, CSIA & National

40%

CSIA
Annual Growth Rates - Total Passengers

30% India

20%

10%

0%

-10%
1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

-20%

2.2.2 Air Cargo Trends

Table 2-3 presents historical data on the air cargo and mail handled at CSIA over the past
27 years. As was the case with passengers and aircraft movements, air cargo (not including

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mail) has also experienced very rapid growth rates over the past few years, increasing from
307,600 tonnes in 2002-03 to an estimate of over 533,000 tonnes in 2007-08.

Mail, on the other hand, has actually decreased somewhat after reaching a high of 18,146
tonnes in 2002-03.

Table 2-3
Historical Air Cargo & Mail, CSIA
Year International Cargo Domestic Mail Total Growth
Loaded Unloaded Total Total
1980-1981 33,252 16,503 49,755 18,227 13,342 81,324
1990-1991 96,108 44,837 140,945 39,108 10,843 190,896
2000-2001 137,767 73,246 211,013 76,797 17,562 305,372 4.4%
2001-2002 132,407 67,559 199,966 75,975 17,579 293,520 -3.9%
2002-2003 146,598 77,470 224,068 83,537 18,146 325,751 11.0%
2003-2004 149,625 84,355 233,980 92,497 16,445 342,922 5.3%
2004-2005 169,006 104,259 273,265 129,450 12,602 415,317 21.1%
2005-2006 171,442 117,518 288,960 142,360 12,630 443,950 6.9%
2006-2007 186,969 141,053 328,022 152,158 13,250 493,430 11.1%
2007-2008 205,296 168,474 373,770 159,821 14,975 548,566 11.2%
GAGR
1980-2003 6.8% 7.4% 7.0% 7.3% 0.9% 6.5%
2003-2008 8.2% 18.9% 12.4% 14.7% -2.3% 12.5%

In 2007-08, 70% of the cargo handled by the airport was international, with the remaining
30% domestic (see Figure 2-3). Though exports make up most of the international cargo,
imports have been growing at a much higher rate as a result of the growth of the domestic
market. The primary imports are consumer items, as well as electronic, computer and
machine parts, all of which are increasingly in demand. Figure 2-4 presents the breakdown
of international air cargo by commodity at CSIA.

Partial data for 2008-09 would indicate that total air freight has increased by only 1.4% over
the first 10 months of the year, a significant decline compared to the growth rates of previous
years that reflects the ongoing economic crisis. A full breakdown of 2008-09 cargo is not
currently available.

Figure 2-3
Breakdown of Total Air Cargo in 2007-08, CSIA

Domestic Imports
30% 32%

Exports
38%

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 Figure 2-4
Breakdown of International Air Cargo by Commodity, CSIA

Exports Imports

Auto/
Other Machine
48% Parts
Leather Luggage
16%
Goods 2%
1% Electricals
2%
Hazardous
2% Electronics/
Computer
Chemicals
Pharmaceuti 10%
3%
cals Perishable
Automobile 19%
Textiles 3%
9% Other
18% Hazardous 64%
3%

2.2.3 Aircraft Movements

Table 2-4 and Figure 2-5 present the trend for annual commercial aircraft movements at CSIA
over the past 25 years. Total annual commercial passenger ATMs has experienced an
important increase over the past four years in particular, from 137,212 in 2003-04 to an
estimate of over 230,000 for 2007-08 (see Table 2-4).

Table 2-4
Historical Commercial Aircraft Movements, CSIA

Year International Domestic Total Growth

1980-1981 23,256 22,778 46,034
1990-1991 28,831 27,411 56,242
2000-2001 34,597 73,812 108,409 1.1%
2001-2002 35,891 79,389 115,280 6.3%
2002-2003 35,100 90,451 125,551 8.9%
2003-2004 37,560 99,652 137,212 9.3%
2004-2005 43,743 109,423 153,166 11.6%
2005-2006 49,186 121,959 171,145 11.7%
2006-2007 52,729 149,071 201,800 17.9%
2007-2008 61,658 170,861 232,519 15.2%
GAGR
1980-2003 2.1% 6.6% 4.9%
2003-2007 13.2% 14.4% 14.1%
* 2008-09 estimated based on data for first 10 months

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 Figure 2-5
Annual Commercial Aircraft Movements, CSIA

250,000

Internat.
200,000 Domestic
Total
Aircraft Movements

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07

2008-09
While the general trend for aircraft movements in the CSIA is similar to that of the
passengers, average growth rates have been somewhat lower. This is particularly true
during the current boom, primarily because of a significant increase in the average number
of passengers per domestic ATM from 79 in 2003-04 to over 105 in 2007-08 as domestic
airlines have been moving towards using larger aircraft.

Table 2-5 presents a breakdown of total aircraft movements for 2006-07, including cargo and
non-commercial aircraft. Scheduled passenger aircraft movements accounted for 90.1% of
total ATMs during that year, with freighters accounting for another 3.5%.

Table 2-5
Breakdown of Total Aircraft Movements for 2006-07, CSIA

ATM %
International Scheduled 45,590 21.4%
International Non Scheduled 2,206 1.0%
International Cargo 4,933 2.3%
Domestic Scheduled 146,596 68.7%
Domestic Non-Scheduled 0 0.0%
Domestic Cargo 2,475 1.2%
Military 1,256 0.6%
Business Aviation 10,221 4.8%
Total 213,277

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Military and business aviation operations have not experienced the same rapid growth
experienced by commercial passenger and cargo ATM, remaining relatively stable in recent
years, though with considerable year to year variation. But it should be noted that the
Business Aviation Association for India (BAAI) estimates that the market will grow in the
short term by 30% to 40% at the national level due to further Governmental de-regulation
and increased foreign investment in Indian companies.

It would also be important to add that most General Aviation activity is concentrated at the
Juhu Aerodrome, which in recent years has handled from 20,000 to 25,000 aircraft
movements per year, representing approximately 10% of the ATM’s for the Mumbai system.

An estimate was made for the current fleet mix for regular passenger operations based on
the January 2008 flight schedule for CSIA. This is compared to the fleet mix at the airport for
August 2004 so as to identify any recent trends (See Figure 2-6 and Figure 2-7).

This fleet mix was organized according to the aircraft categories established by the ICAO
and distributed between the international and domestic terminals.2

The key findings of this fleet mix analysis are:

4 The market is currently dominated by ICAO Code C narrow body aircraft with less
than 200 seats, representing 78.1% of total scheduled commercial passenger
arrivals. A large majority of these were either Boeing 737 series or Airbus 320
aircraft, which together account for 62.3% of scheduled ATMs at the airport.
Another 5.4% were Code C ATR turboprop aircraft.
4 Code C aircraft have actually increased their overall share of the market in recent
years, up from 69.3% in August 2004. This a function of both the relatively faster
growth of domestic traffic compared to international arrivals and an increase in
the use of narrow body Code C aircraft on international flights from 16.9% to
23.3%.

4 Wide-body aircraft accounted for 21.3% of total scheduled commercial passenger

arrivals and 76.7% of international arrivals in January 2008.

4 There has been an increase in the relative size of the Code C aircraft towards
Boeing 737-800’s and 900’s, as well as the Airbus 321. This along with the
change in seat configurations used the new low cost carriers is what accounts for
an overall increase in the average number of passengers per aircraft movement
from 107 to 115 during the same period.

4 Also, Air Sahara (now Jet Lite) has replaced its regional jets with Boeing 737-800
aircraft on most routes into Mumbai, reducing the domestic share of Code B
aircraft down to less than 1% of total arrivals compared to 4.5% in 2004.

2
Flights arriving to CSIA’s international terminals from other airports in India are included as international in this figure and
table, as they either originated in another country or will continue on overseas after departing Mumbai.

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 Figure 2-6
Distribution of Total Arriving Aircraft by ICAO Code

Total - 2004 Total - 2008

Code D Code E
Code D
7% 14%
15%
Code E
Code B
13%
1%
Code B
Code C
3%
(turbo)
Code C 5%
(turbo)
6%

Code C Code C
(jet) (jet)
63% 73%

Figure 2-7
Distribution of International and Domestic Arriving Aircraft by ICAO Code

Domestic Terminals - 2004 International Terminals - 2004

Code E
Code D 39%
1%
Code B
5%

Code C Code C
(jet) (turbo)
9% Code C
85%
(jet)
17%
Code D
44%

Domestic Terminals - 2008 International Terminals - 2008

Code E
Code D 54%
1%
Code B
1%
Code C
(jet) Code C
91% (turbo)
7%
Code C
(jet)
23%
Code D
23%

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2.3 MMR Demand Forecast

2.3.1 Passenger Forecast for MMR

This section provides LBG’s aggregate unconstrained passenger forecasts for the entire
Mumbai Airport System. These forecasts were developed using a two step process:

1. Develop econometric forecasting models according to industry practices.

2. Adjust forecasts for short-term and long-term industry trends not reflected in the
econometric modelling.

While finding a regression with very high correlation coefficients demonstrates a close
statistical relationship between the variables during the historical period of analysis, there
are some important limitations that should be taken into account.

The resulting equation directly reflects conditions that define that relationship during those
particular years. When using this equation to project passengers towards the future, it is
only valid to the extent that these same conditions are expected to persist. Furthermore, it
does not take into account short-term shocks to the system, such as those experienced so
far this year with wildly.

The specific factors that were considered in this particular case are:
1. The extent and duration of the impact of the current downturn in air traffic caused by
fluctuating fuel costs and what has become a worldwide financial crisis.

2. The extent to which an eventual recovery of the world economy will lead to a return
to the projected medium to long-term trend line (as established by the econometric
model).

3. Whether it is feasible to assume that domestic traffic will indefinitely continue growing
faster than international traffic.

4. Whether the long-term growth rates resulting from the econometric analysis are
sustainable in the very long-run once the market begins to mature.

Table 2-6 presents a summary of the aggregate adjusted passenger forecast for the MMR
airport system under the Medium Scenario for each of the planning years identified in the
introduction to this report.

The long-term forecast is that demand will reach over 77 million passengers in 2021-22 and
over 119 million in 2041-42.

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 Table 2-6
Summary of Medium Scenario Passenger Forecast – MMR Airport System

Year Terminal Passengers (‘000) Total Passengers (‘000)

Intern. Domestic Total Transit Total
2007-08 7,645 17,881 25,526 338 25,865
2014-15 12,150 32,849 44,999 586 45,585
2017-18 15,078 40,768 55,846 773 56,619
2022-23 20,489 55,396 75,885 1,153 77,038
2027-28 26,179 70,780 96,959 1,604 98,563
2031-32 31,594 85,421 117,015 2,062 119,077
Average Annual Growth Rate:
2007-2017 7.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.6% 8.1%
2018-2031 5.4% 4.0% 4.0% 5.4% 4.0%
2007-2031 5.3% 5.9% 5.7% 6.7% 5.7%

Figure 2-8 presents a comparison of the forecast under the three scenarios prepared:
Medium, High and Low.

Figure 2-8
Comparison of Forecast Scenarios – MMR Airport System

160

140 Medium
High
Passengers (millions)

120
Low
100

80

60

40

20

0
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32

The High and Low scenarios were forecasted using the same equation as the base forecast,
but applying the respective GDP/NDP forecasts. As noted previously, they also involve
different assumptions about the rate of recovery from the current downturn in traffic. The
result of these assumptions is that total passengers in 2031-32 will increase from 119 million
to 144 million under the High scenario and would be down to 100 million under the Low
scenario.

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2.3.2 Cargo Forecast for MMR

This section presents the aggregate unconstrained forecast of air cargo and mail for the
Mumbai airport system.

The methodology utilized to prepare the air cargo forecast is similar to that used for
passengers. A statistical regression analysis was carried out for each primary traffic segment
to identify correlations between historical cargo trends and combinations of the socio-
economic variables and periods of at least 15 years between 1980-81 and 2007-08.

In the case of air cargo, the only adjustments made to the growth rates resulting from the
econometric analysis were for 2008-09 and 2009-10.

In the case of air cargo, growth rates for the first 10 months of 2008-09 were 4.0% for
international and -4.7% for domestic and these rates are used for the entire year. While the
international rate is lower than the results of the regression equation, domestic cargo has
clearly been even more strongly affected by the general downturn in traffic experienced this
year.

As both international and domestic cargo can be expected to continue to be affected by the
crises in the coming year, the growth rates projected for 2009-10 have been cut in half.

As was the case with passengers, adjustments have also been made concerning the
recovery of some of this lost cargo, as follows:

4 For the Medium Scenario, International cargo is expected to recover 90% of the
lost cargo in comparison to the regression results for 2014-15.

4 Domestic cargo is expected to recover to 75% of the lost tonnage during this
same period.

4 The High and Low Scenarios, the percent recovered is increased or reduced by
10% respectively.

Table 2-7 presents a summary of the aggregate adjusted Medium air cargo forecast for the
MMR airport system for each of the planning years identified in the introduction to this
chapter of the report.

The average annual growth rates over the next 10 years are projected at 8.0% and 7.7% for
international and domestic air cargo respectively. Though relatively high, these rates
represent a decline in comparison to the growth rates experienced since the liberalization of
the air transportation markets (12% and 15% respectively).

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 Table 2-7
Summary of Medium Scenario Air Cargo Forecast – MMR Airport System
(tonnes)

Fiscal Year International Domestic Total

Beg in: Loaded Unloaded Total
2007 205,296 168,474 373,770 159,821 533,591
2014 296,225 340,371 636,595 276,483 913,078
2017 342,802 466,378 809,180 335,543 1,144,723
2022 439,550 741,095 1,180,644 458,218 1,638,863
2027 566,631 1,148,315 1,714,946 619,357 2,334,303
2031 696,434 1,641,629 2,338,063 783,946 3,122,009
CAGR
2007-2017 5.3% 10.7% 8.0% 7.7% 7.9%
2017-2031 5.2% 9.4% 7.9% 6.2% 7.4%
2007-2031 5.2% 10.0% 7.9% 6.9% 7.6%

The primary results are:

4 Air cargo is forecasted to double from 533,591 tonnes in 2007-08 to more than
1.1 million tons in 2017-18. It will then increase more gradually at an average
annual growth rate of 7.4% to more than 3.1 million tonnes of total freight by
2031-32.

4 International cargo is projected to reach over 2.3 million tonnes by 2031-32, of

which 70% are imports, compared to 45% at present. This last is consistent with
a growing Indian middle class demanding more imports of the type shipped by
air.

4 Domestic cargo is forecasted to reach over 0.78 million tons by 2031-32.

In the case of mail, statistical analysis techniques were not suitable. The historical trend
over the past 25 years is one of very little growth and significant year to year variations. It
was possible to estimate the following very low income elasticities (using State GDP) for the
past 14 years:

4 International Mail: 0.186

4 Domestic Mail: 0.214

Table 2-8 presents the “Medium” MMR forecast of airmail based on these elasticities; as well
as the sum of both air cargo and mail. Based on the historical tendency, airmail has a much
lower growth rate than air cargo and becomes an increasingly less important part of the
airfreight business. Mail is projected to increase from just under 15,000 tons to 20,000 tons
over the next 24 years.

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 Table 2-8
Summary of Medium Scenario Mail Forecast – MMR Airport System
(tonnes)
Fiscal Year Air Mail Air Mail + Air Cargo
Beg in: Internat. Domestic Total Internat. Domestic Total
2007 3,257 11,718 14,975 377,027 171,539 548,566
2013 3,522 12,847 16,369 640,117 289,330 929,447
2016 3,656 13,310 16,966 812,836 348,853 1,161,689
2021 3,858 14,120 17,977 1,184,502 472,338 1,656,840
2026 4,071 14,978 19,050 1,719,018 634,335 2,353,352
2031 4,296 15,889 20,186 2,342,360 799,836 3,142,195
CAGR
2007-2017 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 8.0% 7.4% 7.8%
2017-2031 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 7.9% 6.1% 7.4%
2007-2031 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 7.9% 6.6% 7.5%

Figure 2-9 presents a comparison of the forecast under the three scenarios: Medium, High
and Low.

Figure 2-9
Comparison of Cargo Forecast Scenarios – MMR Airport System

4000

3500 Medium
High
3000
Tonnes (thousands)

Low
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32

The base forecasts for the High and Low scenarios were estimated using the same
equations, but applying High and Low forecasts of the primary independent variables. The
same adjustment was carried out for 2008-09. In the case of 2009-10, the following
adjustments were made:
4 High: The growth rate predicted by the regression equation was multiplied by 0.8.

4 Low: The regression growth rate was multiplied by 0.2.

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2.4 NMIA Passenger and Cargo Forecast

This section of the report presents the passenger and cargo demand forecast for NMIA,
based on an allocation of the passengers projected for the complete MMR airport system.

Though there are several different mechanisms for the allocation of air traffic in multi-airport
environments, as was analysed in the Strategic Planning Report (Task A-8), a decision has
been made to allow free competition among the two airports for the different traffic
segments. As a result, the allocation of traffic will depend primarily on two inter-related
factors:

4 The preferences of airport users (passengers, airlines, etc.)

4 Capacity, congestion and quality of service constraints

The procedure followed to allocate potential passenger traffic is the following:

1. Review airline preferences and plans

2. Estimate the proportion of the passenger and cargo markets for which NMIA has a
comparative advantage

3. Analyse saturation levels at CSIA

4. Derive passenger levels at NMIA

5. Derive cargo levels at NMIA

2.4.1 NMIA Passenger Forecast

2.4.1.1 Annual Passengers

The passenger demand forecast for NMIA was prepared by allocating forecasted demand
for the entire MMR system between CSIA and NMIA. The primary assumptions used are:

1. NMIA will begin operating at the end of 2013 or in early 2014.

2. CSIA will retain a slight advantage over NMIA through the planning horizon from the
point of view of most users (passengers and airlines) as long as it remains
uncongested and can offer available slots during peak domestic hours.
3. NMIA should be able to handle up to 220,000 annual commercial ATM and
approximately 40-42 peak hour ATM per runway, before becoming congested (which
using the passenger per ATM forecast represents approximately 60 million annual
passengers).3

Table 2-9 presents the allocation process. Demand for Navi Mumbai is derived by
subtracting the capacity of NMIA from the system’s demand.

3
A current benchmark for major European and North American airports is between 200,000 and 250,000 annual movements
per runway. Source: “2007 Airport Benchmarking Report,” Air Transportation Research Society. NMIA should eventually be
able to reach a similar level of operational efficiency.

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Since CSIA will be operating at the competitive capacity throughout the forecast period,
almost the entire growth in demand for the system will have to be absorbed by NMIA, except
for what is explained by the increase in average passengers per operation.

Domestic and international passengers were then allocated proportionally between the two
airports, as we considered that at this time there is no solid basis for assuming a specific
concentration of either domestic or international passengers at either CSIA or NMIA.

Table 2-9
Allocation of Passenger Demand – Medium Forecast
(thousands of passengers)

Year System Demand Capacity CSIA NMIA Demand Unsatisf.

Pax ('000) Growth Pax ('000) Growth Pax ('000) Growth Demand
2007-08 25,865 16.3% 25,865 16.3% 0
2008-09 23,611 -8.7% 27,574 6.6% 0
2009-10 23,611 0.0% 29,283 6.2% 0
2010-11 25,735 9.0% 30,992 5.8% 0
2011-12 29,690 15.4% 32,702 5.5% 0
2012-13 34,253 15.4% 34,411 5.2% 0
2013-14 39,516 15.4% 34,683 0.8% 4,833 0
2014-15 45,585 15.4% 34,957 0.8% 10,629 119.9% 0
2015-16 49,160 7.8% 35,233 0.8% 13,928 31.0% 0
2016-17 52,802 7.4% 35,511 0.8% 17,291 24.1% 0
2017-18 56,619 7.2% 35,792 0.8% 20,827 20.5% 0
2018-19 60,705 7.2% 36,074 0.8% 24,630 18.3% 0
2019-20 65,075 7.2% 36,359 0.8% 28,715 16.6% 0
2020-21 69,744 7.2% 36,647 0.8% 33,098 15.3% 0
2021-22 73,221 5.0% 36,936 0.8% 36,284 9.6% 0
2022-23 77,038 5.2% 37,228 0.8% 39,810 9.7% 0
2023-24 81,010 5.2% 37,522 0.8% 43,488 9.2% 0
2024-25 85,144 5.1% 37,818 0.8% 47,325 8.8% 0
2025-26 89,443 5.0% 38,117 0.8% 51,326 8.5% 0
2026-27 93,914 5.0% 38,418 0.8% 55,495 8.1% 0
2027-28 98,563 5.0% 38,722 0.8% 59,841 7.8% 0
2028-29 103,398 4.9% 39,028 0.8% 60,300 0.8% 4,070
2029-30 108,423 4.9% 39,336 0.8% 60,776 0.8% 8,311
2030-31 113,647 4.8% 39,647 0.8% 61,257 0.8% 12,744
2031-32 119,077 4.8% 39,960 0.8% 61,740 0.8% 17,377

This table does not include direct international transit passengers. The forecast model
permits allocating these separately in case information was obtained which would indicate a
particular concentration of these passengers at either CSIA or NMIA. As of now, since we
do not have such information, these passengers are allocated in the same proportion as the
remaining passengers.

Figure 2-10 graphically illustrates the allocation process, with the top line representing the
aggregate demand for the MMR system, including unallocated passengers beginning in
2028-29 when both airports reach their maximum design traffic levels.

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 Figure 2-10
Allocation of Passengers, MMR Airport System

140

120
Passengers (millions)

100

80

60
NMIA
40

20 CSIA

0
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32
Table 2-10 presents a summary of the annual passenger demand forecast for NMIA.

Table 2-10
Summary of Passenger Demand Forecast – NMIA
(thousands of passengers)

Fiscal Year Terminal Passengers Total Passengers

Begin in: Intern. Domestic Total Transit Total
2014 2,833 7,659 10,492 137 10,629
2017 5,547 14,996 20,543 284 20,827
2022 10,588 28,626 39,214 596 39,810
2027 15,894 42,973 58,867 974 59,841
2031 16,381 44,290 60,671 1,069 61,740
2041 16,381 44,290 60,671 1,069 61,740
Average Annual Growth Rate:
2014-2017 25.1% 25.1% 25.1% 27.6% 25.1%
2018-2031 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 9.9% 8.1%
2014-2031 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 12.9% 10.9%

The primary results are:

4 NMIA is forecasted to handle over 20 million passengers by the end of Phase 1 in

2017-18. This would increase to just under 40 million passengers by 2022-23
and almost 62 million by 2031-32.

4 International passengers are forecasted to reach over 10 million passengers by

the end of Phase 2 and over 16 million by 2031-32.

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 4 Domestic passengers are forecasted to reach over 28 million by 2022-23 and
over 44 million over the long run.

4 Direct international transit passengers are forecasted to increase to over 1 million

over the first 24 years of operation of the airport.

Figure 2-11 presents a comparison of the forecast under the three scenarios: Medium, High
and Low. The High and Low scenarios were forecasted using the same assumptions about
the maximum capacity of both airports. As a result, all three scenarios eventually top out at
just over 60 million passengers. The primary difference between them is that the High
Scenario reaches that level 2020-21, while the Low Scenario gets there 10 years later.

Figure 2-11
Comparison of Forecast Scenarios – NMIA

70
Medium
60
High
Passengers (millions)

50 Low

40

30

20

10

0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32

2.4.1.2 Peak Period Passengers

In addition to the annual passenger forecasts presented above, estimates were also made of
the Average Day Peak Month (ADPM) and Peak Hour for various segments of the
passenger market.

The methodology used to estimate the ADPM was to apply the percentage of annual traffic
in the peak month of 2007-08 to the annual traffic forecast for NMIA. As can be seen in
Table 2-11, there has been no consistent trend in the percentage of annual traffic in the peak
month in recent years.

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 Table 2-11
Percent of Passengers in Peak Month

Year International Domestic Total

2005-06 8.98% 7.70% 10.00%
2006-07 10.41% 9.54% 9.79%
2007-08 9.73% 9.23% 9.21%
Average 9.71% 8.83% 9.67%

Table 2-12 presents the forecast of Average Day Peak Month for the Medium Scenario,
broken down between international and domestic, as well as embarked and disembarked
passengers.

Table 2-12
Average Day Peak Month Forecast – Passengers

2014 2017 2022 2027 2031

International
Embarked 4,715 9,233 17,624 26,456 27,268
Disembarked 4,497 8,805 16,808 25,233 26,006
Total 8,888 17,402 33,218 49,866 51,394

Domestic
Embarked 11,490 22,497 42,944 64,466 66,442
Disembarked 11,321 22,165 42,310 63,515 65,461
Total 22,810 44,660 85,251 127,977 131,899

Total
Embarked 15,784 30,905 58,995 88,562 91,277
Disembarked 15,735 30,809 58,809 88,283 90,988
Total 31,174 61,038 116,514 174,907 180,267

Following the IATA recommended guidelines peak hour traffic was initially estimated based
on the January 2008 flight schedule as the peak month during 2007-2008. But it is also
important to consider that the distribution of hourly traffic during that month already reflects
the effects of increasing congestion at CSIA.

Since this type of congestion is not expected at NMIA, at least not in the short to medium
term, it was considered preferable to incorporate peak hour figures from 2004 more
representative of the distribution of air traffic in Mumbai in an unconstrained environment.
Since the 2004 figures were significantly lower than in 2007-08, those figures were updated
accordingly.

Table 2-13 presents the forecast of peak hour passengers that results from these
calculations.

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 Table 2-13
Peak Hour Passenger Forecast

Passengers 2014-15 2017-18 2022-23 2027-28 2031-32

International
Arrivals 991 1,776 3,150 4,569 4,701
Departures 1,227 2,200 3,902 5,660 5,823
Total 1,950 3,495 6,199 8,991 9,250

Domestic
Arrivals 1,330 2,384 4,228 6,132 6,309
Departures 1,431 2,565 4,550 6,599 6,789
Total 1,931 3,462 6,141 8,906 9,163

Total
Arrivals 1,979 3,548 6,293 9,127 9,390
Departures 2,244 4,023 7,135 10,348 10,647
Total 2,869 5,144 9,123 13,231 13,613

2.4.2 NMIA Cargo Forecast

2.4.2.1 Annual Cargo and Mail

The cargo forecast for NMIA was prepared by allocating forecasted demand for the entire
MMR system between CSIA and NMIA. The primary assumptions used are:
1. NMIA will begin operating in late 2013 or early 2014.

2. It is assumed that NMIA will attract a majority of freighter traffic (growing from 43% to
80% of this cargo by the time the airport reaches saturation). This reflects the
competitive advantages for the new airport discussed previously in this chapter.

3. Belly cargo and air mail, on the other hand, are distributed between the two airports
according to the distribution of commercial passenger aircraft movements (in effect,
growing from 23% to 60% over the first 20 years of operation of the airport).

The specific methodology followed to carry out this allocation is illustrated in Table 2-14.

This allocation included the following steps:

1. Separate out the aggregate MMR airport systems cargo forecast between belly cargo
and cargo on freighters, assuming that the later continues to represent the recent
average of 31.7% of total cargo.

2. The percentage of belly cargo allocated to the NMIA in each year is estimated as
equal to the percentage of commercial ATM allocated to that airport.

3. The percentage of freighter cargo is assumed to be the same percentage of

commercial ATM plus an additional 20%.

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Both types of cargo stop growing once NMIA reaches its maximum number of ATM as
defined previously in this report. For its part, CSIA is allowed to continue growing until it
reaches its estimated capacity for cargo turnover of 1,241,500 tonnes.

Table 2-14
Allocation of Air Cargo Among MMR Airports – Medium Forecast
(tonnes)

Year System Demand CSIA Demand NMIA Demand Unsatisf.

Tonnes Growth Tonnes Growth Tonnes Growth Demand
2007-08 533,591 11.1% 533,591 11.1% - 0
2008-09 541,071 1.4% 541,071 1.4% 0 0
2009-10 559,841 3.5% 559,841 3.5% 0 0
2010-11 608,920 8.8% 608,920 8.8% 0 0
2011-12 678,728 11.5% 678,728 11.5% 0 0
2012-13 757,066 11.5% 757,066 11.5% 0 0
2013-14 845,026 11.6% 730,905 -3.5% 114,121 0
2014-15 913,078 8.1% 653,512 -10.6% 259,567 127.4% 0
2015-16 985,541 7.9% 655,820 0.4% 329,722 27.0% 0
2016-17 1,062,814 7.8% 660,168 0.7% 402,646 22.1% 0
2017-18 1,144,723 7.7% 664,677 0.7% 480,047 19.2% 0
2018-19 1,232,231 7.6% 668,650 0.6% 563,582 17.4% 0
2019-20 1,325,412 7.6% 671,970 0.5% 653,443 15.9% 0
2020-21 1,424,283 7.5% 674,523 0.4% 749,760 14.7% 0
2021-22 1,528,802 7.3% 691,770 2.6% 837,032 11.6% 0
2022-23 1,638,863 7.2% 706,663 2.2% 932,200 11.4% 0
2023-24 1,757,544 7.2% 722,391 2.2% 1,035,153 11.0% 0
2024-25 1,885,584 7.3% 738,983 2.3% 1,146,601 10.8% 0
2025-26 2,023,790 7.3% 756,468 2.4% 1,267,322 10.5% 0
2026-27 2,173,042 7.4% 774,870 2.4% 1,398,172 10.3% 0
2027-28 2,334,303 7.4% 794,216 2.5% 1,540,087 10.2% 0
2028-29 2,508,624 7.5% 968,537 21.9% 1,540,087 0.0% 0
2029-30 2,697,157 7.5% 1,157,070 19.5% 1,540,087 0.0% 0
2030-31 2,901,160 7.6% 1,241,500 7.3% 1,540,087 0.0% 119,573
2031-32 3,122,009 7.6% 1,241,500 0.0% 1,540,087 0.0% 340,422

Table 2-15 presents a summary of the Medium Scenario air cargo forecast for NMIA, while
Table 2-16 contains the mail forecast and the sum of air cargo and air mail.

Table 2-15
Summary of Air Cargo Forecast – NMIA
(tonnes)
Fiscal Year International Domestic Total
Beg in: Loaded Unloaded Total
2014 87,833 100,923 188,757 70,810 259,567
2017 147,816 201,101 348,917 131,130 480,047
2022 254,985 429,912 684,897 247,303 932,200
2027 379,916 769,925 1,149,841 390,246 1,540,087
2031 379,916 769,925 1,149,841 390,246 1,540,087
CAGR
2014-2017 18.9% 25.8% 22.7% 22.8% 22.7%
2018-2031 7.0% 10.1% 8.9% 8.1% 8.7%
2014-2031 9.0% 12.7% 11.2% 10.6% 11.0%

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The primary results are:

4 NMIA is forecasted to handle over 486,000 tonnes of total freight by its fifth year
of operation (2017-18), and then increase more gradually to 1.55 million tonnes
of total freight by 2031-32. Most of this (99%) is air cargo, while mail amounts to
less than 12,000 tonnes (1%).
4 International cargo is projected to reach just over 1.0 million tonnes by 2031-32,
of which 62% are imports.

4 Domestic cargo (air mail and air cargo) is forecasted to reach over 399,000
tonnes by 2031-32.

Table 2-16
Summary of Mail Forecast – NMIA (tonnes)

Fiscal Year Air Mail Air Mail + Air Cargo

Beg in: Internat. Domestic Total Internat. Domestic Total
2014 1,058 3,329 4,388 189,815 74,139 263,954
2017 1,593 5,263 6,857 350,510 136,393 486,903
2022 2,262 7,711 9,973 687,159 255,014 942,173
2027 2,664 9,195 11,858 1,152,505 399,441 1,551,945
2031 2,664 9,195 11,858 1,152,505 399,441 1,551,945
CAGR
2014-2017 14.6% 16.5% 16.0% 22.7% 22.5% 22.6%
2018-2031 3.7% 4.1% 4.0% 8.9% 8.0% 8.6%
2014-2031 5.6% 6.2% 6.0% 11.2% 10.4% 11.0%

2.4.3 NMIA Aircraft Movement Forecast

This section of the report presents the aircraft movement (ATM) forecasts that are derived
from the passenger and cargo forecasts presented in the previous section.

In order to determine the NMIA aircraft movement forecast, the following forecasts were
considered:

1. Annual Commercial Passenger ATM Forecast

4 Commercial Passenger ATM

4 Aircraft Type

4 Charters and Low Cost Carriers

2. Annual Other ATM Forecast

4 Cargo ATM

4 General Aviation and Military/Government ATM

3. Peak Period Forecast

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2.4.3.1 Annual Commercial Passenger ATM Forecast

Commercial passenger aircraft movements are estimated from the projected number of
passengers in each category (international and domestic) divided by the average number of
passengers per movement. The average number of passenger per commercial ATM (not
including freighter movements) is used as a basis for this calculation corresponding to
aircraft movements at CSIA in 2007-08. These are:

4 International: 143

4 Domestic: 106

As can be seen in Figure 2-12, the averages for international and domestic movements have
been relatively stable over the past decade, though they have been moving in opposite
directions over the past four years.

Figure 2-12
Average Number of Passenger per ATM, CSIA

180

160
Average Passengers per ATM

140

120
100

80
60
International
40 Domestic
20 Total
0
1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

In the case of international movements, the recent decline from over 160 passengers per
operation to the current 143 has been due to a couple of factors:

4 The relative growth of short-haul international operations using smaller aircraft

4 A shift by Air India and other airlines away from the Boeing 747 and Airbus 310
towards the smaller Boeing 777 and Airbus 330 respectively.

In the case of domestic operations, the increase in passengers per movement is due to:

4 A movement from smaller narrow bodied aircraft towards the Boeing 737-800’s
and 900’s, as well as the Airbus 321.

4 The use of more dense seat configurations by the new low cost carriers

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In both cases, there has been a reduction in the passenger per ATM ratio during the first ten
months of 2008-09, as the reduction in the growth of aircraft movements has lagged behind
that of passengers. The ratios for the current year are:

4 International: 138

4 Domestic: 96

But the average passengers per ATM can be expected to recover to 2007-08 levels over the
next two or three years once traffic begins to grow again. After that, the average number of
passengers per ATM for both market segments can be expected to settle on a slow increase
over time averaging at 0.8% per year. This growth rate is derived from the analysis by
aircraft type presented later on in this section. Table 2-17 presents the forecast of average
passengers per aircraft.

Table 2-17
Forecast of Average Passengers per Aircraft

Year International Domestic Year International Domestic

2007-08 143 106 2020-21 155 120
2008-09 * 138 96 2021-22 156 121
2009-10 138 97 2022-23 157 122
2010-11 140 102 2023-24 159 123
2011-12 143 107 2024-25 160 124
2012-13 145 112 2025-26 161 125
2013-14 147 113 2026-27 163 126
2014-15 148 114 2027-28 164 127
2015-16 149 115 2028-29 165 128
2016-17 150 116 2029-30 166 129
2017-18 151 117 2030-31 168 130
2018-19 153 118 2031-32 169 131
2019-20 154 119 Long-Term 169 131

Table 2-18 presents a summary of the annual NMIA aircraft movement forecast for all types
of aviation.

Table 2-18
Summary of Aircraft Movement Forecast – NMIA

Fiscal Year Commercial ATM Total ATM

Beg in: Intern. Domestic Total Cargo Other Total
2014 20,102 67,136 87,238 6,105 2,747 96,089
2017 38,539 128,343 166,882 10,038 4,727 181,646
2022 71,029 235,423 306,452 18,148 7,580 332,180
2027 102,352 337,648 440,000 29,124 9,879 479,004
2031 102,574 337,426 440,000 29,124 9,879 479,004
2041 102,574 337,426 440,000 29,124 9,879 479,004

The primary results for the Medium Scenario forecast of commercial passenger aircraft are:

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 4 Total commercial aircraft movements are expected to reach over 306,000 by
2022-23, and up to the estimated maximum runway capacity of 440,000 by 2027-
28.

4 International commercial aircraft movements are forecasted to increase to 71,000

in 2022-23 to over 102,500 once the airport reaches full capacity; both of which
represent approximately 23% of the total.

4 Domestic aircraft movements are forecasted to increase to over 235,000 in 2022-

23, before reaching a peak of overt 337,000 by 2027-28.

Figure 2-13 presents the forecast of commercial passenger ATM’s under the three
scenarios: Medium, High and Low.

Figure 2-13
Comparison of Commercial ATM Forecast Scenarios – NMIA

500
450 Medium
Aircraft Movments (thousands)

400 High
350 Low
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32

2.4.3.2 Peak Period ATM Forecast

In addition to the annual ATM forecasts presented above, estimates were also made of the
Average Day Peak Month (ADPM) and Peak Hours.

Table 2-19 presents the forecast of Average Day Peak Month for commercial aircraft
movements under the Medium Scenario, broken down between international and domestic,
as well as embarked and disembarked passengers.

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 Table 2-19
Average Day Peak Month Forecast – Commercial ATM

2014 2017 2022 2027 2031

International
Departure 30 58 107 154 154
Arrival 30 58 107 154 154
Total 60 116 214 308 308

Domestic
Departure 95 182 335 480 480
Arrival 95 182 335 480 480
Total 190 364 670 960 960

Total
Departure 126 241 442 635 635
Arrival 126 241 442 635 635
Total 252 482 884 1,270 1,270

Peak hour forecasts were prepared for both commercial passenger ATM and total ATM.
Table 2-20 presents peak hour commercial ATM, while Table 2-21 presents the total ATM.

Table 2-20
Peak Hour Commercial ATM Forecast

Commercial ATM 2014-15 2017-18 2022-23 2027-28 2031-32

International
Arrivals 5 9 16 22 22
Departures 5 9 16 22 22
Total 7 13 22 31 31

Domestic
Arrivals 10 18 31 43 43
Departures 10 18 31 43 43
Total 16 28 47 66 66

Total
Arrivals 14 24 42 58 58
Departures 14 25 43 60 60
Total 19 33 56 78 78

Table 2-21
Peak Hour Total ATM Forecast

Total ATM 2014-15 2017-18 2022-23 2027-28 2031-32

Total
Arrivals 15 25 43 60 61
Departures 15 26 45 62 63
Total 20 34 58 81 82

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It is important to note that in the case of peak hours, the total does not necessarily equal the
sum of arrivals and departures, because the peak for each category can be in a different
hour. As can be seen in these tables, the peak hour for commercial operations stabilizes at
78, while for total movements; it reaches a maximum of 82.

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 Chapter 3.
Project Description
 CHAPTER 3
Project Description

3.1 Overview

The aviation sector is on the brink of recovery worldwide and India is at the forefront of this
recovery. Anticipating a return to high growth rate, airports in India are trying to enhance
their capacity of the airports especially in the Western (Mumbai) Region having the largest
air traffic in India.

In the Western Region, the Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport, has had a high growth
of air passengers every year before the worldwide financial crisis, and it is about to reach
saturation stage after the anticipated return of the high rate growth. As this airport has its
limitations to grow and to meet the required demand, the Government of India (GOI),
Ministry of Civil Aviation (MCA), Government of Maharashtra (GOM), and Airport Authority of
India (AAI) had made a decision to make a new Greenfield International Airport in one of the
upcoming areas of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, i.e. Navi Mumbai.

For the development of this new greenfield airport, GOI, MCA, GOM and AAI have
appointed CIDCO (City and Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra), a public
undertaking of the GOM. CIDCO has been given the charge of developing this new airport
based on a Public – Private Partnership (PPP) model.

As a part of the development of the airport, CIDCO has appointed the Louis Berger Group,
Inc. as the prime consultant to prepare a comprehensive master plan, detail project report
and procurement documents for the proposed Navi Mumbai International Airport.

The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) spreads over an area of 4,355 sq. km and
comprises Greater Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Vasai-Virar and Navi Mumbai. The population of
MMR was 189.80 lakhs in 2001. The population of the MMR is projected to grow
substantially from the current 189.80 lakhs to 235 lakhs by the year 2011, and over 300
lakhs beyond the year 2022.

Navi Mumbai is being developed as a counter magnet to the main city. This city, planned for
a population of 20 lakhs and employment of 8 lakhs, is expected to relieve congestion and
reduce deterioration of civic amenities of Mumbai. This is the largest new town planning and
development project undertaken in Asia.

The boundary of Navi Mumbai starts from the Kalva Railway underpass, with a width of 2 km
and extends to the south, beyond the Uran up to Karanjia Creek. The maximum width of the
area is nearly 20 km near Panvel. The area is approximately enclosed between latitude 190

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12’ N and 180 50’ N and longitude 720 54’ E and 720 50’ E. Mumbai is located between
latitude 190 15’ N and 180 52’ N and longitude 720 47’ E and 720 59’ E. Thus, Navi Mumbai is
located close to Mumbai, but separated by Thane Creek.

Navi Mumbai is separated into two parts by the Panvel Creek. Between Kalva and Belapur,
the area is covered by two major deposits, (i) marine and fluvial deposits and (ii) residual
deposits connecting the hill slopes.

The location of the proposed International Airport at Navi Mumbai has been considered on
several parameters. Prominent amongst these, is the fact that Navi Mumbai is expected to
absorb the future growth in population, business and commercial activities of the Mumbai
Region.

The availability of physical and social infrastructure coupled with environment friendly site
with least re-settlement and rehabilitation, makes the Navi Mumbai International Airport
Project technically suitable and financially attractive for development through private and
public partnership basis.

The proposed airport at Navi Mumbai is located on NH4B near Panvel Town in the
geographical centre of Navi Mumbai having longitude 73° 04' 18" and latitude 18° 59' 33"
and it is located at a distance of 35 km from the Santacruz Airport.

3.2 Project Site

The Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) is proposed to be developed in an area of

2,054 hectares, accommodating parallel independent runways for simultaneous and
independent operations with a provision of full length taxiway on either side of the runways.

The airfield will be designed to accommodate the new large aircraft (A380) compatible to
ICAO standard of Aerodrome Code 4-F.

The airport site is large enough to develop a two runway system and is located next to two
very important communication corridors. The site has a very good railway connection, which
would be completed with branches linking directly to the current lines with the airport. From
the point of view of railway connections, this site has great accessibility.

Figure 3-1 shows the location of the Navi Mumbai International Airport.

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 Figure 3-1
Navi Mumbai International Airport Location

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3.3 Air Traffic Design Parameters

For the estimation of the airport facility requirements of the different airport subsystems, an
air traffic forecast was developed in order to know the demand that needs to be satisfied.

Table 3-1 shows a summary of the air traffic levels for which the airport will be designed in
four development periods.

Table 3-1
NMIA Air Traffic Design Parameters

Medium-
Opening Short-Term Long-Term
Term
International Commercial Aircraft Operations 20,102 45,245 83,216 102,426
Domestic Commercial Aircraft Operations 67,136 150,534 275,296 337,574
Total Commercial Aircraft Operations 87,238 195,779 358,512 440,000
Cargo Aircraft Operations 6,105 11,527 22,023 29,124
Other Type of Aircraft Operations 2,747 5,357 8,532 9,879
Total Aircraft Operations 96,089 212,663 389,067 479,004
International Terminal Commercial Passengers 2,833 6,558 12,580 16,012
Domestic Terminal Commercial Passengers 7,659 17,730 34,012 43,291
Total Terminal Commercial Passengers 10,492 24,288 46,592 59,303
Transit Commercial Passengers 137 343 733 997
Total Passengers 10,629 24,630 47,325 60,300
International Aircraft Peak Hour 7 15 26 31
Domestic Aircraft Peak Hour 16 32 54 66
Total Aircraft Peak Hour 19 38 65 78
International Departure Aircraft Peak Hour 5 11 18 22
Domestic Departure Aircraft Peak Hour 10 21 36 43
Total Departure Aircraft Peak Hour 14 29 50 60
International Arrival Aircraft Peak Hour 5 11 18 22
Domestic Arrival Aircraft Peak Hour 10 21 36 43
Total Arrival Aircraft Peak Hour 14 28 48 58
International Passenger Peak Hour 1,950 4,049 7,248 9,053
Domestic Passenger Peak Hour 1,931 4,011 7,180 8,968
Total Passenger Peak Hour 2,869 5,958 10,667 13,323
International Departure Passenger Peak Hour 1,227 2,549 4,563 5,699
Domestic Departure Passenger Peak Hour 1,431 2,972 5,320 6,644
Total Departure Passenger Peak Hour 2,244 4,660 8,342 10,420
International Arrival Passenger Peak Hour 991 2,057 3,684 4,601
Domestic Arrival Passenger Peak Hour 1,330 2,761 4,943 6,174
Total Arrival Passenger Peak Hour 1,979 4,110 7,358 9,190
International Loaded Cargo (tonnes) 87,833 168,918 301,084 379,916
International Unloaded Cargo (tonnes) 100,923 241,417 546,026 769,925
Total International Cargo (tonnes) 188,757 410,336 847,111 1,149,841
Domestic Cargo (tonnes) 70,810 153,246 299,490 390,246
Total Cargo (tonnes) 259,667 563,582 1,146,601 1,540,087

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3.4 Airport Facilities

NMIA will be a state-of-the-art airport, with modular facilities for both domestic and
international passengers and cargo capacity to accommodate the projected demand
throughout the planning period.

The facilities planned include passenger and cargo terminal buildings, runway system,
aprons, taxiways, airfield lighting system, air traffic control tower, NAVAIDs, utilities and
infrastructure including roads, car parking, power supply system, storm water drainage
system, sewage treatment plant, etc.

The airside facilities of the new airport shall include, but are not necessarily limited to:
runway(s), taxiways, apron areas, remote gate/aircraft parking positions, contact gate
positions, NAVAIDs, airfield lighting, ATS complex and airfield lighting.

The immediate and long-term planning horizons of the new air terminal development, in
conjunction with the airfield facilities, are to be planned to serve the growth in the forecast
and to meet the region’s needs for an airport complex. The overall plan will be sequentially
developed, managed, and operated to internationally recognized standards. The design and
development of high quality facilities will provide the users with a high level of service,
positive working environment, a safe environment, advanced technologies (check-in and
passport control procedures, etc.), long life cycles, and excellent performance.

The overall airport complex shall introduce travel facilities, which will provide a new and
refreshed gateway to the region and specifically to Mumbai and its surrounding region. Not
simply a way of moving people and goods quickly and efficiently, the new airport shall be a
symbol of national and regional manifest, which demonstrates the nation's status, its
economic health, and sense of welcome in the quest for excellence and competitiveness in
air transportation.

The airport is ultimately designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy a 60 million
passenger’s demand by providing NMIA with two runways and one processing building with
two associated parallel piers.

Figure 3-1 presents the long-term development plan of the Navi Mumbai International
Airport.

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 Figure 3-1
NMIA Airport Layout Plan – Long-Term Phase

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3.4.1 Runways

In the ultimate horizon, the airfield will consist of two parallel runways with 083º east
northeast – 263º west southwest orientations located north and south of the airport site and
designated as 08R/26L and 08L/26R, respectively, with a take-off available distance of 3,700
metres and 60 metres of runway width to accommodate the super-jumbo A380 aircraft (see
Figure 3-2).

In addition to the strengthened pavement of 60 metres wide with a PCN value between 62
and 107, depending on the type of pavement and the CBR values of the sub-grade, the
runway will include shoulders 7.5 metres wide at each side of the runways.

Beyond the runway ends, blast pads of 60 x 60 metres at both ends of the runway will be
provided with the objective of protecting from blast erosion.

The terrain around the runway will be set up and graded as required by ICAO standards to
provide the adequate runway strip with a longitudinal slope not exceeding 1.3% and
downward transversal slope not exceeding 2.5%.

At both ends of the runway strip, a rectangle area of 240 m long x 60 m wide will be
prepared for the runway end safety area.

Figure 3-2
NMIA Runway System

3.4.2 Runway Exits

In order to optimize the runway occupancy time to an efficient level of 50 seconds,

approximately, both runways will be provided with two rapid exits for each approach
configuration at an angle of 30º located at 1,975 metres and 2,450 metres from each runway
threshold.

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Also, two perpendicular runway exits at each runway end will be provided with a minimum
distance between them of 97.5 metres according to taxiway minimum separation distances.

For all runway exits, both perpendicular and at-angle, the taxiway width will be 25 metres
plus paved shoulders at each side of the connectors of 17.5 metres wide.

The runway exits will be protected of any obstacle within a strip of 57.5 metres and providing
a graded area of 30 m with a transverse slope not exceeding 2.5% upward or 5% downward
from the taxiway centreline at each side of the connectors.

3.4.3 Taxiways

Runway 08R/26L exits and Runway 08L/26R exits connect each to a full parallel taxiway of
3,890 metres long and 25 metres wide plus paved shoulders of 17.5 metres wide at each
side of the taxiway located at 190 metres from the corresponding runway centreline.

The taxiways will be protected of any obstacle within a strip of 57.5 metres and providing a
graded area of 30 m with a transverse slope not exceeding 2.5% upward or 5% downward
from the taxiway centreline at each side of the taxiway.

From the main parallel taxiways six perpendicular taxiway connectors 25 metres wide plus
paved shoulders of 17.5 metres at each side of the taxiways wide link up to a second parallel
partial taxiway of 2,464 metres located at 97.5 metres from the main taxiways.

Both the partial parallel taxiways and the taxiway connectors will be protected of any
obstacle within a strip of 57.5 metres and providing a graded area of 30 m with a transverse
slope not exceeding 2.5% upward or 5% downward from the taxiway centreline at each side
of the taxiways.

Four of the mentioned taxiway connectors extend 207 metres from the partial parallel
taxiways to link their corresponding southern or northern aircraft aprons and will be protected
of any obstacle within a strip of 57.5 metres and providing a graded area of 30 m with a
transverse slope not exceeding 2.5% upward or 5% downward from the taxiway centreline at
each side of the taxiway connectors.

A dual parallel taxiway system will be provided at the west and east sides of the airfield
connecting the main parallel taxiways to each runway with the following characteristics:

4 Each taxiway is 1,473 metres long and 25 metres wide plus paved shoulders of
17.5 metres wide at each side of the taxiway.

4 The taxiway centrelines of both dual taxiway systems are separated 97.5 metres,
whereas the inner taxiways of the dual taxiway system are 2,270 metres away
from each other’s centreline.

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 4 The taxiways will be protected of any obstacle within a strip of 57.5 metres and
providing a graded area of 30 m with a transverse slope not exceeding 2.5%
upward or 5% downward from the taxiway centreline at each side of the taxiway.

3.4.4 Bypass Holding Bays

With the purpose of allowing controllers vary relatively the takeoff clearance or delay the
departures of some aircraft due to unexpected circumstances, and pilots make either
technical verifications in the aircraft before takeoff, engine tests in the turboprop aircraft, or
VOR heading verifications, one bypass holding bay is provided at both thresholds of runway
08R and runway 08L and two bypass holding bays at Runway 26R threshold and Runway
26L threshold.

The bypass holding bays consist of a taxiway designed to provide room for one or two wide-
body aircraft by means of a deviation road parallel to the taxiway connector to the runway so
that the latter can be avoided. The bypass holding taxilane is separated from the taxiway
connector centreline 107.5 metres so that the holding aircraft do not interfere with the
electronic signal of the radio aids.

The bypass holding bay area is extended 17.5 metres with paved shoulders and protected of
any obstacle within a strip of 57.5 metres with a graded area of 30 m so that the transverse
slope does not exceed 2.5% upward or 5% downward from the holding taxilane.

Blue elevated edge lights will be installed at the entire shoulder of the holding bay. Figure 3-
3 shows the location of the proposed bypass holding bays located at the end of the runways.

Figure 3-3
Bypass Holding Bays

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3.4.5 Navigational Aids

Both runways will be equipped with both elevated and inset lights for at-all-time operations
consisting of a CAT I approach system before each runway threshold which comprises a row
of lights along the extension of the runway centreline to a distance of 900 m.

The runway lighting system is completed with runway centreline inset lights, as
recommended by DGCA CAR for precision approach category I when the runway is used by
aircraft with high landing speeds or the distance between runway edge lights is greater than
50 metres, and runway edge elevated lights at both sides of the runway.

Also, runway threshold lights and runway end lights will be installed. Blue elevated taxiway
edge lights will be installed at each runway exit and taxiways.

A PAPI approach slope indicator system of a 4-element wing bar placed on the left side of
each runway will be installed.

All runway approaches are equipped with Instrument Landing System antennas category I
which consists of a localizer (LOC) antenna located 300 metres from runway end and a glide
path (GP/DME) antenna located 120 m from runway centreline and 300 m from runway
threshold at the side of the runway offering the least possibility of signal reflections

3.4.6 Aircraft Parking Aprons

3.4.6.1 Commercial Apron

The main aircraft parking aprons associated to the northern and southern piers will consist of
an approximated paved area of 300,000 m2, which includes the following:

4 a large area of for contact aircraft positions,

4 vehicle service roads,

4 close and remote ground handling equipment stage zones,

4 push-back truck areas, and

4 an adjacent apron area located approximately at the centre of the large apron for
remote aircraft positions, vehicle service roads, close ground handling equipment
stage zones, and push-back truck areas.

To serve passengers with a suitable pier service level of about 95% of annual passengers it
is anticipated that 15 MARS (Multiple Aircraft Ramp Stand) positions, which are able to
accommodate two Code C aircraft (Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 size) at the same time or
servicing one aircraft of the size of a Boeing 747 or Airbus A340, and 2 narrow-body (or
Code C) aircraft parking contact stands will be required.

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MARS composite aircraft parking envelope will be made up of a rectangle area of 7,650 m2
(90 m x 85 m) including in this area:

4 the aircraft parking stand area for 2 Code C aircraft or 1 Code E/F aircraft,

4 a close GSE staging area to place all the required equipment to make the
handling activity in the commercial apron when the stand is either occupied by an
aircraft or not, and

4 a tow truck zone of 9 m x 3 m just in front of the aircraft nose.

A vehicle service road between the aircraft parking stands and the pier of 20 metres wide
with 2 lanes in each direction will serve for ground vehicle manoeuvres on the commercial
apron.

The apron taxiway system will consist of:

4 one apron taxilane at 57.5 m from the aircraft stand borderline which run parallel
to the pier, and

4 one aircraft stand taxilane at 36 m from the aircraft stand borderline with the
purpose of providing a dual taxilane configuration for Code D aircraft along with a
partial aircraft stand taxilane at the remote apron.

In this way, the commercial apron will benefit of a better control and flexibility of the aircraft
manoeuvres to avoid apron congestions and delays.

As mentioned before, there is also a requirement for 20 remote single stands located at
160.5 m from the contact stand borderline.

The remote parking stands cover an area of 101,852 m2 at the northern apron and 110,447
m2 at the southern apron, including:

4 A parallel aircraft stand taxilane 33 m long located at 102.5 m from the contact
stand borderline, a ground vehicle service road of 10 m wide running between the
commercial apron and the aircraft positions,

4 Nine (9) single aircraft stand for Code D aircraft at the northern remote apron and
eleven (11) single aircraft stand for Code D aircraft at the southern remote apron,

4 Aircraft tow truck zone of 10 m long in front of the aircraft, and

4 A ground handling equipment staging area of 3,975 m2 located at one side of the
remote aircraft aprons.

If any Code E aircraft is requested to be parked at a remote position, it must be placed as a

parallel parking configuration.

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As for ground vehicle service access to remote aircraft positions, the twin Code D taxilanes
can be crossed at grade, by concentrating the crossing point at the central point of the pier.
This would then give greater visibility for approaching aircraft.

Both the operation of the twin Code D apron taxilanes and the “at grade” ground vehicle
service crossing would however require the implementation of special Low Visibility
Procedures to allow crossings to continue in bad weather.

Blue elevated edge lights will be installed at the entire shoulder of the commercial apron.

Figure 3-4
Commercial Parking Apron

3.4.6.2 Long-Term Aircraft Parking

Two aircraft long-term parking areas will be provided at the east side of the airport and at
both sides of the eastern access road (Figure 3-5).

Each aircraft long-term parking covers an area of 161,132 m2 making a rectangle of 608 m x
265 m with the long side parallel to the airport access road, including the following:

4 Aircraft stands at both sides of the long section of the area with a length of 75 m,

4 A service vehicle road of 10 m wide running behind the aircraft at the inner part of
the apron,

4 One apron stand taxilane at 50.5 m from the vehicle service roads at both sides.

4 Also, the area provides space for a taxilane running perpendicular to the
connector at the west side of the long-term parking area for access to the general
aviation apron.

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The aircraft long-term parking areas will allow parking for up to 50 aircraft at the same time.
Blue elevated edge lights will be installed at both the taxiway connecting to the long-term
parking aprons and the entire shoulder of the long-term parking aprons.

Figure 3-5
Long-Term Aircraft Parking

3.4.6.3 General Aviation Apron

The general aviation (GA) area is proposed to be located at the east side of the airport
taking advantage of the Eastern airport access road without interfering the heavy
development proposed at the West side of the airport and 488 m from the commercial apron
between the long-term parking area and the access road.

The GA apron will have an area of 31,872 m2. Figure 3-6 shows the location of the proposed
general aviation area.

Figure 3-6
General Aviation Apron

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3.4.6.4 Cargo Apron

Two cargo aprons, located at the west side of the commercial apron and at both sides of the
airport Western access road, will be connected each one from the Northern or Southern
commercial aprons by a taxiway of 25 m wide plus shoulders of 17.5 m wide.

The southern cargo apron is designed to accommodate up to 7 wide-body freighters while

the northern cargo apron provides a capacity for 8 wide-body freighters. Both cargo aprons
will include the following:

4 A unit loading area of 6 m wide in front of the cargo building terminal,

4 A cargo road for ground ramp vehicles of 12 wide,

4 A staging area of 18 m wide for storage of ground handling equipment,

4 An aircraft nose loading area of 16 m wide,

4 Aircraft stand of 75 m long, and

4 An apron taxilane at 50.5 m from the cargo aircraft stand borderline.

Both cargo apron areas are extended 17.5 metres with paved shoulders and protected of
any obstacle within a strip of 57.5 metres with a graded area of 30 m so that the transverse
slope does not exceed 2.5% upward or 5% downward from the apron taxilane.

Blue elevated edge lights will be installed at both the taxiways connecting to the
corresponding commercial apron and the entire shoulder of the cargo aprons.

Figure 3-7 shows the location of both cargo aprons north and south of the western airport
access road.

Figure 3-7
Cargo Apron

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3.4.7 Passenger Terminal Building

The passenger terminal building and supporting facilities have been designed to support up
to 60 million passengers per annum during the ultimate phase of development. The following
table shows the forecasted number of passengers (annual and peak hour) for each phase.

Table 3-2
Number Passengers per Development Phase

Year / Phase Opening Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term

Total Annual Passengers 10,628,833 24,630,358 47,325,286 60,300,000
Peak Hour Passengers 2,869 5,958 10,667 13,323

Figure 3-8 below shows the terminal area plan. The terminal footprint (shown in yellow) has
an area of approximately 266,000 square metres. A number of terminal concepts were
studied and this, the “H” concept, was selected. This concept consists of a central
processing terminal with two concourses on either side, running parallel to the runways.

One important reason for the selection of the “H” concept is that it accommodates terminal
access both from the east and the west of the airport property. Another important reason for
the selection is that this concept works well for a single runway (Phase 1) as well as for
double runways (later Phases).

Figure 3-8
Terminal Area Plan

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3.4.7.1 Passenger Processing Terminal

The main passenger processing facility is a five level facility with an additional three level
office complex located at its centre. This facility processes both international and domestic
passengers. The terminal has access from both the north and south sides and has three
curbs on each side, one on grade and two elevated. The first level curb is dedicated to the
commercial vehicles, the second level curb is for arrivals and the third level curb is for
departures. Examples of double sided /multi-level curb terminals can be seen at Denver
International Airport terminal (USA) and the Orlando International Airport terminal (USA). A
description of the passenger flows will follow. Functions by level are described below:

Level 1

4 Baggage sorting area

4 Commercial Ground transportation curb access lobby

4 Commercial Ground transportation curb

Level 2 (mezzanine)
4 In-line explosive detection screening areas

4 Bridge connections to parking areas and train station

4 Offices and mechanical rooms

Level 3

4 International baggage claim and government inspections

4 Domestic baggage claim

4 Ground transportation / commercial Lobby

4 International Meeters / Greeters area

4 Domestic Meeters / Greeters area

4 Public Arrivals curbs

Level 4 (mezzanine)

4 Departure passenger access to concourses

4 Arrival passenger access from concourses to claim areas

4 Bridge connections to parking areas

Level 5
4 Passenger check-in Lobby

4 Well wishers area

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Level 6 (centre of building)

4 Concessions area

4 Access to office building

Levels 7 & 8 (centre of building)

4 Offices

3.4.7.2 Concourses

There are two concourses, the north concourse and the south concourse. During Phase 1
and 2, the south concourse will be divided in two, processing both international and domestic
passengers. In later phases, the south concourse will serve as the international concourse
and the north as the domestic concourse. Following is a description by level of both the north
and south concourses:

Level 1

4 Remote gate lounges & bus pick-up

4 Remote gate bus drop-off and sterile corridor access

4 Ramp / Airline support

4 Mechanical areas

Level 2
4 Sterile arrivals corridor

4 Contact gate departure lounges

4 Transit/Transfer airline counters

4 Transit/Transfer security and concourse access

4 Business Class lounges

4 Immigration counters (South concourse)

4 Contact gate fixed connection bridges

Level 3

4 Concessions

4 Security screening

4 Exit passport control (South concourse)

4 Departures access corridor

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3.4.7.3 Passenger Flows

Departing Passengers

Departing passengers arrive at the terminal via an elevated third level curb. International
passengers are assigned the north curb while domestic passengers are assigned the south
curb. However, the check-in lobby is an open concept lobby that allows access from either
curb to any of the check-in counters.

A large covered exterior area is provided for well wishers, as only passengers have access
to the terminal. This area has access to the meeters and greeter area located directly below,
for interaction with the concessions area located at the greeters area. From the well wishers
area, passengers enter the terminal into a large open concept check-in lobby. The counters
are configured in an island style configuration and include a CUTE system allowing all
counters to be used by all airlines (domestic or international).

Once passengers are checked in, their bags are taken via conveyor belts to level 2 where
they are screened and then proceed to the first level sorting area. Passengers proceed to
the centre of the terminal where they can either use the concession facilities located on level
6 or can proceed to level 4 where they then access the concourses.

Figure 3-9
Level 5 – Check-in

Once in level 4, passengers access the concourses via a connector bridge which crosses
between the arrivals and departures curbs. Once at the concourses (level 3), passengers

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are processed through security and then enter into a concessions area. In the case of the
international concourse, passengers are also processed through exit passport control.

The concourse has three wide areas, one at the centre and two on either end of the
concourse. In these areas, passengers have access to food & beverage, Retail stores and
many other amenities found at a world class concessions mall. The three concessions areas
are connected by a departures corridor with moving walks. Located at the corridors as well
as at the concessions areas are ramps which take passengers to the second level departure
lounges.

From the departure lounges, passengers board their aircraft via a fixed bridge which
connects to passenger loading bridges (PLBs). In addition, remote gate departure lounges
are located at the ground level of the concourse. These are located at the ends of the
concourses and are accessed via escalators located at the concessions areas.

Arriving Passengers

Arriving passengers enter the concourses at the second level via PLBs or in the case of
remote gates, via escalators located at the centre of the concourse. All arriving passengers
are kept separated from the departing passengers, as this is a mandated by security
regulations both international and domestic.

At the centre of the concourse (level 2) passengers will have the option of proceeding to the
main processing terminal via a connecting bridge (to claim) or as transit/transfer passengers
use the airline counters and transit/transfer security area before accessing the departure
level of the concourse. In the case of international arrivals, passengers are processed
through immigration prior to the connection bridge to the terminal.

Figure 3-10
Level 2 – Centre of Concourse

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Once at the terminal building, domestic passengers enter the baggage claim area via
escalators (east side) while international passengers access baggage claim at the west side.
Before accessing the claim area, International passengers flow through a walk-through Duty
Free area.

Once processed through baggage claim, international passengers flow north through
customs and then out to an arrivals lobby and domestic passengers flow south to the south
arrivals lobby.

At the centre of the terminal, between both claim areas, passengers will find a ground
transportation lobby area. This area can be used for rental cars, hotel information, limo
services, bank services, etc.

Figure 3-11
Level 4 – Access to Baggage Claim

Located at the north and south of the arrivals lobby (level 3), outside between the building
façade and the curbs, are located two large meter greeters areas with concession facilities.
Passengers being met by greeters will access these areas directly from the arrivals lobby.

Passengers which are using commercial transportation will descend to the lower level where
they access either the North or South Commercial curbs.

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 Figure 3-12
Level 3 – Baggage Claim / Arrivals Lobby

Train Station Flows

A train station is located on the northwest side of the terminal, ground floor (across the
curbs). Passengers going to and coming from the station will do so using an elevated bridge
which connects to the different levels of the terminal via elevators.

3.4.8 Air Cargo Building

The air cargo complex is located on the west side of the site. To satisfy the projected
demand, the air cargo building will grow in each development phase from an area of 32,994
m2 on the opening phase to 103,463 m2 in the long-term development phase.

In addition of the air cargo building, the air cargo complex will consist of an apron and
taxiway as detailed earlier and vehicular parking space for cars and tucks.

3.4.9 Roadway System

Primary Access Road

The primary airport access roads will provide access to the airport from the neighbouring
community road system. There will be two main primary access roads to NMIA, from
western and eastern fronts of the airport. The western primary access road will have the
following elements:
4 Five lanes (5) on each side having total lane width of 17.5 m.

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 4 Pedestrian walkway on either side (3m – 6m).

4 One lane undivided service road with width of 7 m, serving ancillary facilities
cargo, hangars, jet fuel farm, etc. on both sides.

4 A service corridor of 5 m width on both side to serve electrical, mechanical and

telecommunication facilities.

4 A single line central metro corridor with right of way of 12 m.

A total right of way of 100 m, for western primary access road, will be required in the ultimate
phase of NMIA development.

The eastern primary access road will have the following elements:

4 Four lanes (4) on each side having total lane width of 14 m.

4 Pedestrian Walkway on either side (3m – 6m).

4 One lane undivided service road with width of 7 m, serving ancillary facilities
cargo, hangars, jet fuel farm, etc. on both sides.

4 A service corridor of 5 m width on both side to serve electrical, mechanical and

telecommunication facilities.

A total right of way of 88 m, for the eastern primary access road, will be required in the
ultimate phase of NMIA development.

Terminal Area Access Road

The terminal area access roads will serve airport passengers, visitors, and employees and
connect primary airport access roads with terminal buildings and parking facilities. In Phase
4, six lanes of terminal area access roads will be required.

Terminal Frontage Road

These roads distribute vehicles directly to the terminal buildings. Since considerable merging
from through lanes to and from the curb front occurs on these roadways, at least three lanes
should be provided adjacent to the curb.

The inside lane, sized at 2.4 m will provide terminal curb frontage and the 3.6 m outside
lanes will serve through traffic and manoeuvring to the terminal curb frontage.

Additional four 3.6 m lanes for through traffic should be provided at a rate of 600 vehicles per
lane per hour. Separate cub frontage, for departures and arrivals, are provided for each one
of their respective level. The proposed system will have 6 lanes on each curb front until the
build out year.

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Service Roads

Service roads will be divided into two user categories: general and restricted. General-use
service roads are used for the delivery of goods, services, air cargo, flight kitchen supplies,
and the like. There are two service roads on either side of the primary access roads
providing access to the ancillary facilities. One lane undivided road having road widths of 3.5
m will be provided until the ultimate phase.

3.4.10 Vehicular and Cargo Parking

Vehicular Parking

Employee and passengers will park in parking decks in front of the respective terminal
located within a reasonable walking distance. A parking deck will be six-storied high and will
accommodate 7 levels of parking including the roof.

The top of the deck will be lower than the roof of the airport, and seamlessly integrate with
the airport terminal, offering an aesthetically pleasing look. A deck is expected to build in its
entirety during at each corresponding stage for cost beneficial and construction simplicity
reasons. In Phase 4, there will be 4 parking decks having a total area of 230,175 m2.

Cargo Parking

Trucks carrying cargo goods will park in the parking dedicated for trucks by the cargo
terminal building. A total area of 3,600 m2 with 60 cargo truck parking spaces will be
provided in Phase 4. The parking lot will be accessed using a service road running parallel
to the primary access road.

3.4.11 Aircraft Maintenance Hangar Facilities

The area required for aircraft maintenance, including apron, hangars and car parking, is
expected to be 181,500 m2. The aircraft maintenance facilities are estimated to provide
space for 6 hangars. Blue elevated edge lights will be installed at both the taxiway
connecting to the hangar apron and the entire shoulder of the hangar apron.

Figure 3-13 shows the location of the aircraft maintenance hangar facility west of the airport
site.

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 Figure 3-13
Aircraft Maintenance Hangar Facilities

3.4.12 Technical Building and Control Tower

Following international standards recommendations an area of 1.6 ha is reserved adjacent to

the East side of the passenger processor terminal for accommodating the technical building
of aeronautical services, car parking and the control tower. The control tower will have a total
height to the ATC cabin of 50 metres.

3.4.13 Air Rescue and Fire Fighting

Two ARFF stations are required to serve the dual runway system. The level of protection
provided at the airport will be in compliance with airport category 9, at least, if the A380 does
not exceed the criterion of 700 annual movements in the busiest consecutive three months.

Minimum usable amounts of extinguishing agents will correspond to 36,400 litres of water at
a discharge rate foam solution of 16,600 litres per minute, and 450 kg of dry chemical
powders. Rescue equipment will be adequate to meet DGCA CAR requirements. The
minimum number of ARFF vehicles at each station will be three.

A paved emergency access road of 5 metres wide will be provided from the locations of the
ARFF facilities to both runways. A communication and alerting system will be provided
linking the ARFF station with the control tower and ARFF vehicles.

Figure 3-14 shows the location of both air rescue and fire fighting facilities northeast and
southwest of the airport site.

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 Figure 3-14
Air Rescue and Firefighting Facility

3.4.14 Fuel Farm

The aviation fuel farm will be located near the Western border of the airport property and at
the North side of the Western airport access road.

The fuel farm will cover an area of 81,200 m2, including Jet A1 fuel tanks, AVGas cisterns,
maintenance, storage of water for fire fighting, fuel pumps, administrative offices, and car
parking lots.

Figure 3-15
Fuel Farm

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3.4.15 Ground Handling Equipment Maintenance

The GSE maintenance area will include garages, workshops, restrooms, break areas, mess
facilities, storage rooms, paint booths, waste disposal, offices and employee parking.

The facility is located at the east side of the airport between the east access road and the
northern long-term aircraft parking apron. The proposed GSE maintenance compound will
have an overall size of 19,770 m2, approximately.

Figure 3-16 shows the location of the ground handling equipment maintenance facility east
of the airport site.

Figure 3-16
Ground Handling Equipment Maintenance Facility

3.4.16 Catering Facility

The catering facility will be located within the airport service area near the fuel farm,
including truck parking, kitchens, food preparation areas, refrigerated storage, storage, break
rooms, locker facilities with showers and restrooms, offices, delivery areas, and automobile
parking.

The overall size of the facility area will be 24,218 m2.

Figure 3-17 shows the location of the catering facility west of the airport site.

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 Figure 3-17
Catering Facility

3.4.17 Airport Maintenance Area

The airfield maintenance area will be located on the east side of the airport adjacent to the
northern aircraft long-term parking apron and will comprise of diverse maintenance-related
facilities, such as buildings / offices, workshops, parking, garages and staging areas for
runway sweepers (summer service), landscaping equipment (excavator, mower, etc.),
transport equipment such as flatbed trucks, and airfield electrical services for servicing
medium voltage switchgears, airfield lighting systems and communication network within the
airport. The proposed maintenance compound will have an overall size of 96,500 m2. Figure
3-18 shows the location of the proposed airport maintenance area east of the airport site.

Figure 3-18
Airport Maintenance Area

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3.4.18 Power Supply

In Phase 1, electric energy is supplied via two independent feeders from the national grid to
one power station, which covers an overall area of 12,000 m2, and provides a secure circuit
with full redundancy supplying uninterrupted service, and a second circuit without full
redundancy that supplies those consumers that can tolerate occasional outage without
strong adverse impact on terminal operations.

In Phase 2, an additional power station is built to provide electrical power service to the
airport. Figure 3-19 shows the location of the power station facilities.

Figure 3-19
Power Station

3.5 Project Execution

The NMIA project is proposed to be executed through public and private partnership basis
by forming a Special Purpose Company (SPC). CIDCO will hold equity to the extent of 26%
and the remaining will be held by Financial Institutions and Private Investors. SPC will raise
the required resources for execution of the project as well as construct, manage and operate
the airport during the concession period. The project will be transferred back to the
Government after the recovery of the capital with interest at the expiration of the concession
period.

3.6 Construction Material

Indigenous construction material found in and around the region will be used for the
construction purposes. Sand from Panvel Creek will be used after washing and as filling
materials in the form of earth fills and rocks removed by cutting of the hill lying in the western

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fringe will be used. The other raw materials like cement & steel will be brought from nearby
sources.

There will be batching/ready mix plant within the airport. Major construction activities will be
land development and concreting for which bulk raw material is available with the airport
area. The following material will be available for the horizontal structures:

4 Stones Aggregates

4 Cement

4 Sand
4 Asphalt

4 Moorum

4 Geotextile

In addition to above, these materials are also required for terminal building, cargo buildings, and
other ancillary buildings. Other materials required for construction of buildings such as
aluminium frame works, glazing and other finishing material are available in Mumbai and Navi
Mumbai.

3.7 Construction Environment

During the construction stage of the proposed facilities a large number of local and migrating
(comprising of both skilled and unskilled) workers will be involved. For the migrating workers
temporary hutments with adequate drinking water, proper sanitation facilities along with
provision of fuel (kerosene or fuel wood) will be provided. Adequate clearance and treatment
of domestic waste and sewage will be done as per IS 2470.

As far as the safety and health of the construction workers is concerned, workers will be
provided with helmets, ear mufflers and other safety gadgets. First aid arrangement with
ambulance facility will be provided along with a Medical Examination (ME) room to attend
the accidental cases and minor injuries cases.

Proper hygiene and sanitation will be maintained in and around the worker’s colony to avoid
spread of any epidemic. Provision will be made to have regular health check-up of the
workers with proper treatment facilities to prevent spread of common endemic air and water
borne diseases

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 Chapter 4.
Project Phasing and Cost
 CHAPTER 4
Project Phasing and Cost Estimates

4.1 Overview

The previous chapter of this report had presented the air traffic forecast and the description
of the proposed facilities to satisfy the ultimate demand. This chapter presents the project
phasing and the preliminary cost estimates at planning level for each one of the project
development phases. In addition, a project implementation programme is also discussed in
the following sections of this chapter.

4.2 Project Phasing

The air traffic profile of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is anticipated to grow at a
steady rate during the next 20 years. The Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) is being
planned and designed to accommodate the growth during that period in four phases of
development.

Keeping in mind the saturation year of the existing Mumbai Airport and the projected air
travel demand for Navi Mumbai Airport, the development of the airport facilities is planned as
follows:

4 Phase 1 (2013-14 to 2016-17): In Phase 1, the airport is initially designed with a

level of service adequate to satisfy the demand of 10 million passengers. This is
accomplished by providing NMIA with one runway and one processing terminal
building with one associated pier for both domestic and international passengers

4 Phase 2 (2017-18 to 2021-22): The Phase 2 development at the airport is

designed to meet the demand for 25 million passengers. In this phase, an
additional runway is built to meet airside demand along with one processing
building with one associated pier for both domestic and international passengers
4 Phase 3 (2022-23 to 2026-27): The Phase 3 development of the airport is
designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy a 45 million passenger’s
demand by adding a parallel pier within the terminal building complex so one
handles domestic and the other international passengers.

4 Phase 4 (2027-28 to 2031-32): The airport is ultimately designed with a level of

service adequate to satisfy a 60 million passenger’s demand by providing NMIA
with additional boarding gates and apron area to satisfy the additional demand.

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The phase-wise development of key components of airport is given in Table 4-1.

Table 4-1
Phase-wise Airport Development

Phase/Year Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

Particulars (2016-17) (2021-22) (2026-27) (2031-32)

3700m X 60m 3700m X 60m

Runway dimensions - -
(Runway-1) (Runway-2)

Passenger Terminal
• Area (sq.m.) 122,262 271,020 423,205 459,486
• Capacity (MPPA) 10 25 45 60

Cargo Terminal 32,994 47,598 77,169 103,463

• Area (sq.m.)
263,954 571,176 1,157,535 1,491,946
• Capacity (tons)

Aircraft hangars
• No. of Hangars 4 4 6 11

4.3 Implementation Programme

The implementation programme is based on the time necessary to finalize the studies once
the EIA is approved and the time required for building the proposed airport facilities.
Accordingly, the following program has been devised to identify the various activities which
will lead to the opening of airport facilities keeping the target date of 2014.

By August 2010, it is anticipated to have the Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) study
cleared from the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF). This will be followed by
completing the master plan study, selection of a strategic partner and award of work. Site
preparation work will start in 2011 followed by the construction of the facilities and the first
phase of work will be completed by the end of 2014. During 2004, the airport would go
through required testing and commissioning of the various equipments. The airport would be
ready for operation by the end of 2014. The implementation program will continue for second
phase in the year 2021-22, third phase in 2026-27 and fourth phase in 2030-31.

The Chart below shows the various activities in Phase-1 to be performed during planning,
design and construction phases

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 Figure 4-1
Project Implementation Programme

4.4 Project Cost

Cost estimates for the airport has been prepared following a development strategy for the
Navi Mumbai International Airport included in Chapter 3 of this report that will satisfy the air
traffic demand for the next twenty years as presented in Chapter 2. These plans identify
investments required over the study period subdivided into four development phases as
shown in Table 4-2.

Table 4-2
Development Stages

Airport Development Phases

Phase 1 – Opening Phase

Years 2013-14 – 2016-17
Phase 2 – Short Term
Years 2017-18 – 2021-22
Phase 3 – Medium Term
Years 2022-23 – 2026-27
Phase 4 – Long Term
Years 2027-28 – 2031-32

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This section of the report presents the preliminary cost estimates developed for this program
by phases. The preliminary cost estimates include infrastructure investment costs as well as
equipment costs associated with the investments.

Based upon the facilities shown in the Airport Layout Plan described in Chapter 3 of this
feasibility report and implementation program described earlier, the cost estimates for the
construction of the Navi Mumbai International Airport have been computed and a summary
of the investments required is presented in Table 4-3.

The cost estimates are based upon the airport layout plan at master plan level developed
without any preliminary engineering analysis of any element. The basic costs of the project
for each phase (phases 1 through 4) are presented at price levels of year 2010 without any
escalation prices. The costs presented in this section of the report do not include the
following items:

4 Import taxes, tariffs or equivalent

4 Land costs, legal fees, fees, finance cost, etc.

4 Finish and finishing for tenants area (cargo, catering, and hangars, etc.)

4 Site development cost associated with facilities outside airport boundaries

Table 4-3
Project Cost by Phases
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Item Decsription Cost Cost Cost Cost
No. (Crores) (Crores) (Crores) (Crores)
1. Land Development - - -
a. Reclamatiuon Cost 990 - - -
b. River Training and Diversion 230 - - -
c. Retaining Wall 25 - - -
d. Off-site Infrastructure 300 - - -
e. E.H.T. Electrical 400 - - -
f. EMP & R&R 400 - - -
2. Land Cost 550 - - -
3. Airside Works 600 475 100 0
4. Terminal and Other Buildings 1,200 1,350 1,503 562
5. Landside Works & Other Works 57 34 75 74
6. Non-aeronautical area 200 300 200
Sub-total 4,952 2,159 1,878 636
Total 9,625

4.4.1 Phase 1 Cost Estimate

Table 4-4 shows the investment requirements to open the Navi Mumbai International Airport
by 2013-14.

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 Table 4-4
Cost Estimates Phase 1 – Opening Phase
Item Phase I
Decsription Unit Unit Cost (Rs)
No. Quantity Cost (Rs)
1. Land Development
Reclamation Cost LS INR 9,900,000,000 1 INR 9,900,000,000
River Training and Diversion LS INR 2,300,000,000 1 INR 2,300,000,000
Retaining Wall LS INR 250,000,000 1 INR 250,000,000
Off-site Infrastructure LS INR 3,000,000,000 1 INR 3,000,000,000
E.H.T. Electrical LS INR 4,000,000,000 1 INR 4,000,000,000
EMP & R&R LS INR 4,000,000,000 1 INR 4,000,000,000
2. Land Cost LS INR 5,500,000,000 1 INR 5,500,000,000
3. Airside Works
Runways sq.m. INR 3,800 222,000 INR 843,600,000
Instrument Landing System LS INR 300,000,000 1 INR 300,000,000
Airfield Lighting LS INR 200,000,000 1 INR 200,000,000
Taxiways sq.m. INR 3,800 663,070 INR 2,519,667,027
Terminal Apron sq.m. INR 3,800 197,716 INR 751,320,800
Long Term Parking Apron sq.m. INR 3,800 161,132 INR 612,301,600
GSE Maintenance sq.m. INR 1,600 5,526 INR 8,841,600
General Aviation Apron sq.m. INR 3,000 10,140 INR 30,420,000
Hangars Apron sq.m. INR 3,800 101,753 INR 386,661,400
Cargo Apron sq.m. INR 3,800 67,872 INR 257,913,600
Perimeter Fence m INR 2,400 20,914 INR 50,193,600
Perimeter Road sq.m. INR 1,000 37,500 INR 37,500,000
4. Landside Work and Other Works
Access Road West of Terminal sq.m. INR 1,600 49,308 INR 78,892,800
Access Road East of Terminal sq.m. INR 1,600 45,087 INR 72,139,200
Access Road at Terminal sq.m. INR 1,600 136,710 INR 218,736,000
At Grade Landside Parking sq.m. INR 1,600 87,378 INR 139,804,800
Hangars Building Parking sq.m. INR 1,600 14,237 INR 22,779,200
Cargo Building Parking sq.m. INR 1,600 22,100 INR 35,360,000
5. Terminal and Other Buildings
Terminal sq.m. INR 80,000 122,262 INR 9,780,920,320
Cargo sq.m. INR 19,600 32,994 INR 646,682,400
ARFF (North) sq.m. INR 14,000 11,614 INR 162,596,000
ARFF Vehicles Units INR 24,000,000 3 INR 72,000,000
General Aviation Terminal sq.m. INR 32,000 2,323 INR 74,336,000
Hangars Building Unit INR 5,000,000 4 INR 20,000,000
Power Station sq.m. INR 8,000 11,550 INR 92,400,000
Technical Building sq.m. INR 38,000 18,600 INR 706,800,000
Catering Building sq.m. INR 39,600 4,269 INR 169,052,400
ATC LS INR 280,000,000 1 INR 280,000,000
6. Non-aeronautical area LS INR 2,000,000,000 1 INR 2,000,000,000
Total INR 49,520,918,747

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4.4.2 Phase 2 Cost Estimate

The Phase 2 airport development is designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy a 25
million passenger’s demand by providing NMIA with two runways and one processing
building with one associated pier. A brief summary of the airport development during this
phase is presented below and the cost estimates are shown in Table 4-1.

4.4.2.1 Airside Development

The second Runway 08L/26R equipped with ILS Cat 1 will be located at a distance of 1,854
metres from the first runway allowing independent aircraft operations. The corresponding
parallel taxiway, runway exits, and taxiway connectors to the apron and to the second
runway will be constructed during this phase of development.

In addition, the ground storage equipment maintenance area as well as the general aviation
apron will be expanded.

The perimeter fence will be also expanded to cover the northern airfield area with the
corresponding perimeter road.

4.4.2.2 Landside Roads and Parking Development

At this stage, additional vehicular parking area will be required to satisfy the forecasted
demand.

4.4.2.3 Buildings Development

The passenger terminal building will require expansion during this phase. Also, the cargo
terminal building will require expansion during this development phase.

Due to the construction of the second runway during this development phase, a new air
rescue and fire fighting facility will be constructed to serve the northern runway in order to
satisfy the minimum response time required.

The technical building and catering building will require some expansion during this
development phase.

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 Table 4-5
Cost Estimates Phase 2 – Short Term

Item Phase II
Decsription Unit Unit Cost (Rs)
No. Quantity Cost (Rs)
2. Land Cost LS INR 5,500,000,000
3. Airside Works
Runways sq.m. INR 3,800 222,000 INR 843,600,000
Instrument Landing System LS INR 300,000,000 1 INR 300,000,000
Airfield Lighting LS INR 200,000,000 1 INR 200,000,000
Taxiways sq.m. INR 3,800 874,122 INR 3,321,665,324
GSE Maintenance sq.m. INR 1,600 5,706 INR 9,129,600
General Aviation Apron sq.m. INR 3,000 9,736 INR 29,208,000
Perimeter Fence m INR 2,400 5,500 INR 13,200,000
Perimeter Road sq.m. INR 1,000 37,500 INR 37,500,000
4. Landside Work and Other Works
Vehicular Parking sq.m. INR 4,800 70,648 INR 339,109,056
5. Terminal and Other Buildings
Terminal sq.m. INR 80,000 148,759 INR 11,900,690,560
Cargo sq.m. INR 19,600 14,604 INR 286,238,400
ARFF (North) sq.m. INR 14,000 11,601 INR 162,414,000
Technical Building sq.m. INR 38,000 24,503 INR 931,114,000
Catering Building sq.m. INR 39,600 5,624 INR 222,710,400
ATC LS INR 280,000,000
6. Non-aeronautical area LS INR 2,000,000,000 1.5 INR 3,000,000,000
Total INR 21,596,579,340

4.4.3 Phase 3 Cost Estimate

The Phase 3 airport development is designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy a 45
million passenger’s demand by providing NMIA with two runways and one processing
building with two associated parallel piers. A brief summary of the airport development
during this phase is presented below and the cost estimates are shown in Table 4-6.

4.4.3.1 Airside Development

In order to support the growth of the airport to almost twice as much of the Phase 2 air traffic
demand, all of the airside facilities except for the runway system will need expansion.

4.4.3.2 Landside Roads and Parking Development

Additional travel lanes will be added to the eastern and western bound access roads. To
satisfy the demand, a new vehicular parking structure will be added during this phase as well
as cargo parking area.

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4.4.3.3 Buildings Development

At this stage, the northern pier will be constructed to serve the northern runway. In addition,
the following buildings will be expanded during Phase 3.

4 Hangar buildings

4 Heavy airfield maintenance building

4 Technical building

4 Catering building

Table 4-6
Cost Estimates Phase 3 – Medium Term

Item Phase III

Decsription Unit Unit Cost (Rs)
No. Quantity Cost (Rs)
3. Airside Works
Taxiways sq.m. INR 3,800 127,701 INR 485,265,168
Terminal Apron sq.m. INR 3,800 93,528 INR 355,406,590
GSE Maintenance sq.m. INR 1,600 8,538 INR 13,660,800
General Aviation Apron sq.m. INR 3,000 11,996 INR 35,988,000
Cargo Apron sq.m. INR 3,800 29,949 INR 113,806,200
4. Landside Work and Other Works
Access Road West of Terminal sq.m. INR 1,600 32,872 INR 52,595,200
Access Road East of Terminal sq.m. INR 1,600 30,058 INR 48,092,800
Vehicular Parking sq.m. INR 4,800 120,971 INR 580,661,664
Cargo Building Parking sq.m. INR 1,600 9,785 INR 15,656,000
Reserved Cargo Area Parking sq.m. INR 1,600 33,657 INR 53,851,200
5. Terminal and Other Buildings
Terminal sq.m. INR 80,000 152,185 INR 12,174,800,000
Cargo sq.m. INR 19,600 29,571 INR 579,591,600
Hangars Building Unit INR 5,000,000 2 INR 10,000,000
Heavy Airfield Maintenance Building sq.m. INR 4,000 99,856 INR 399,424,000
Technical Building sq.m. INR 38,000 39,716 INR 1,509,208,000
Catering Building sq.m. INR 39,600 9,115 INR 360,954,000
ATC LS INR 280,000,000
6. Non-aeronautical area LS INR 2,000,000,000 1 INR 2,000,000,000
Total INR 18,788,961,222

4.4.4 Phase 4 Cost Estimate

The airport is ultimately designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy a 60 million
passenger’s demand by providing NMIA with two runways and one processing building with
two associated parallel piers. A complete description of the ultimate development phase is
presented in Chapter 3 and the cost estimate is shown in Table 4-7.

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 Table 4-7
Cost Estimates Phase 4 – Long Term
Item Phase IV
Decsription Unit Unit Cost (Rs)
No. Quantity Cost (Rs)
4. Landside Work and Other Works
Vehicular Parking sq.m. INR 4,800 153,757 INR 738,033,120
Hangars Building Parking sq.m. INR 1,600 4,204 INR 6,726,400
5. Terminal and Other Buildings
Terminal sq.m. INR 80,000 36,281 INR 2,902,480,000
Cargo sq.m. INR 19,600 26,294 INR 515,362,400
Reserved Cargo Terminal sq.m. INR 19,600 48,154 INR 943,818,400
ARFF Vehicles Units INR 24,000,000 3 INR 72,000,000
Hangars Building Unit INR 5,000,000 5 INR 25,000,000
Power Station sq.m. INR 8,000 11,550 INR 92,400,000
Technical Building sq.m. INR 38,000 22,706 INR 862,828,000
Catering Building sq.m. INR 39,600 5,210 INR 206,316,000
ATC LS INR 280,000,000
6. Non-aeronautical area LS INR 2,000,000,000
Total INR 6,364,964,320

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 Chapter 5.
Preliminary Financial
Feasibility Analysis
 CHAPTER 5
Preliminary Financial Feasibility Analysis

5.1 Introduction

This chapter presents the results of the preliminary financial feasibility analysis for the
development of the Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA). The objective of this analysis
is to evaluate the financial feasibility of the preliminary Capital Investment Program from the
point of view of the Joint-Venture Company (JVC) to be established to develop and operate
the airport.

The financial analysis involves the development of a pro-forma cash flow for the JVC for a
30-year period between 2011-12 and 2040-41, with the objective of identifying the financial
impact of the program under different traffic, cost and revenue scenarios.

The primary results of this analysis are presented in terms of the following indicators:

4 Net Present Value (NPV) of the annual net cash flows

4 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

The analysis conducted is a pro-forma cash flow analysis intended to identify the overall
feasibility of the development of the new airport. It is not an “investment” grade analysis and
the results of this analysis should not be used for making specific investment decisions.

5.2 Financial Analysis Methodology

The financial feasibility analysis uses the Discounted Free Cash Flow methodology, in which
total income and expenses for each airport were estimated annually over the defined
planning horizon, and the cash flows were discounted at an appropriate discount rate1, from
which the airport’s present value in monetary terms was determined. In other words, the
methodology basically involves developing a mathematical model, which simulates
operations at the new Airport, as well as their ability to generate future cash flows.

The cash flows are then estimated for each year using the following relationship:

Free Cash Flow = EBITDA – Taxes - Capital Investments + Change in Net Working Capital

The Net Present Value (NPV) of the free cash flow stream is then estimated using an
appropriate discount rate.

1
The discount rate was calculated based on the Project’s characteristics and applying internationally accepted methodologies.

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More specifically, this methodology included:

4 Estimating revenues at each Airport over the various development phases, based
on traffic projections and the price and tariff for use of the terminals, facilities and
services;

4 Project annual Operating Costs (OPEX) for the various facilities, including
personnel, administration and maintenance;

4 Incorporate the preliminary cost estimates (CAPEX) for investment requirements

for the various facilities identified in the System Plan, as presented previously in
Chapter 4 of this report;

4 Prepare annual cash flows for the established planning horizon (30 years); and

4 Determine the financial viability of the project in terms of its Financial Internal
Rate of Return (IRR) under different scenarios.

The Consultant identified the different airside and landside activities and services that will
take place at each of the airports. Based on this, potential revenues were estimated taking
into consideration current tariff structure and the major revenue categories recommended by
IATA and ICAO, including the following:

Aeronautical Revenues
4 Revenues from airfield use - fees paid by commercial airlines and private aircraft
for landing rights (landing);

4 Revenues from apron use - fees paid by commercial airlines and private aircraft
for short-term parking and overnight parking (housing);

4 Passenger Service (Embarkation) fees.

Non-Aeronautical Revenues
4 Rents paid by commercial airlines and others for the use of land at the airports
and of space in terminal buildings and other structures such as hangars.

4 Concession royalties from the right to operate services at the airport, as well as
duty-free and other retail outlets, advertisement, and any other for-profit activity
conducted on the site of the terminal.

4 Revenues from other real-state opportunities on the airport property and in the
vicinity of the airport.

4 The recovery of utility costs from airport users.

The project’s cost estimates for the financial analysis include capital investments, as well as
operations and maintenance costs. The investment costs include engineering, infrastructure
construction, equipment procurement, and environmental mitigation costs. Operating costs
include, among other items, personnel, utilities, equipment operation, administrative

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services, and routine maintenance expenses. These last include the daily expenses for
maintaining equipment as well as airside pavements and other facilities.

Scenarios have been prepared that include or do not include the impact of depreciation and
interest payments has not been considered in this analysis.

The primary sources of data and information used in this analysis were:

4 The preliminary Capital Investment Program.

4 The Air Traffic Forecast prepared as part of Task B-2 of this Consultancy.

4 The existing Airport Charges and Tariffs published by the AAI, as charged at
CSIA

4 The non-audited financial statements of CSIA for the years ending March 31st
2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004.

4 Non-aeronautical revenue and operational expenditure benchmarks

2
corresponding to major international airports in Asia and worldwide .

As NMIA is a greenfield airport, there is no historical financial information that could be used
as a basis for estimating future revenues and expenditures. Furthermore, detailed financial
information was not available for the JVC (MIAL) operating Mumbai’s primary existing
airport, the Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA). Thus, it was necessary to rely on
financial statements from the period when the AAI operated the airport, but assuming
increases in efficiency that are considered achievable with reference to the benchmarks
identified in Task A7 “Benchmarking” of this study.

Thus, although much important financial data was obtained from the sources listed above to
use as input to the cash flow analysis, it was also necessary to include a series of
assumptions based on the Consultant’s experience in other similar international airports in
cases where specific data was lacking.

5.3 Primary Assumptions

In developing the financial model and conducting the feasibility analysis, the Consultant has
set parameters and made assumptions which include the following:

1. The initial concession period is assumed to be for 30 years (from 2011-12 to 2040-
41).

2. Projection years are fiscal years beginning on 1st of April and ending the 31st of
March.

3. The Traffic Forecast Scenario utilized in the model is LBG’s Medium scenario

2
This includes data obtained for the airports covered in the benchmarking analysis prepared as part of Task A-7
“Benchmarking” of this project, as well as other airports where LBG has recent detailed financial information.

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 presented in the Task B2 Report “Aviation Demand Forecast”.

4. The model was developed and results are expressed in Rupees with constant
purchasing power equivalent to the average for the 2009-10 fiscal year.

5. An exchange rate of Rs. 45.00 per US Dollar was utilized; corresponding to the
exchange rate utilized in preparing the Capital Investment Program.

6. A financial structure of 30% equity and 70% debt. (please refer to the discussion
below on this topic)

7. Debt financing is assumed to involve credit with a term of 15 years, with a one year
grace period and a nominal interest rate of 10.5%.

8. Average annual inflation in Rupees of 4% over the period of analysis.

9. The change in net working capital was estimated assuming 30 days of receivables on
revenues.

10. An effective corporate income tax rate of 33.66% was assumed for the entire
projection period based on an estimate provided by CIDCO.
11. A concession fee is not included for this initial feasibility analysis.

12. The discount rate is 12% in real terms (no inflation).

As this analysis is being carried out from the point of view of the JVC constructing, operating,
administering and designing the new airport, an additional set of key assumptions concerns
the array of facilities and services to be administered or provided directly by the JVC. While
a more exact distribution of services will be defined during a later task in this study as part of
the development of the Business Plan, for purposes of this preliminary feasibility analysis, it
is assumed that the JVC will be responsible for providing the following services:

4 Maintenance of airside pavements (runways, taxiways and aprons).

4 Operation and maintenance of passenger terminal building

4 Operation and maintenance of car parks and ground transportation facilities.

4 Maintenance of cargo terminals and most other buildings (including the air traffic
control tower (ATCT), technical building, general aviation facilities and catering)

4 Operation and maintenance of ARFF (fire fighters)

Though the JVC could potentially provide at least some ground handling and cargo handling
services, for purposes of this feasibility analysis it is assumed that these services are
provided by National Aviation Company of India Limited (NACIL) and others. Thus, operating
revenues and costs are limited to rental income for the facilities provided to cargo and
ground handlers, as well as some of the maintenance costs associated with these facilities.

Other facilities such as maintenance hangars and the fuel farm would be developed,
operated and maintained by others.

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5.4 Development Plans

The Capital Investment Costs (CAPEX) used in this financial analysis is presented in
Chapter 4 of this report. This CAPEX is based on a development program as indicated in
that chapter.

5.5 Operating Revenues

Operating revenues at airports come from two major sources: aeronautical revenues and
non-aeronautical revenues including cargo and handling revenues. The Airport’s operating
revenue is a function of the following:

4 Level of airport tariffs;

4 Volume of passenger and cargo traffic and number and type of aircraft
operations,

4 Spending profile of passengers, airport and airlines employees, and other visitors
using the Airport concessions, and
4 Commercialization strategy established by the Airport Operator.

The basis for the revenue projections of each of the revenue categories are provided in
Table 5-1. Aeronautical revenues follow the categorization currently used by AAI, while non-
aeronautical revenues are broken down based on the type of information available. In
general, a ratio based approach was used to estimate revenues as a function of traffic levels
and/or infrastructure capacity. This approach is described below.

Table 5-1
Major Revenue Categories Projected

Aeronautical Revenue Non Aeronautical Revenues

Landing Fees Rental Income (Land & Buildings):
Parking, Lighting and Airbridge Fees - Passenger Terminal - Commercial
Passenger Service Fees - Passenger Terminal - Office & Other Space
- Cargo Terminals
- Hangars & Other Buildings
- Land – Airport Property
- Land – Adjacent Commercial Area
Concession Royalty Income
- Duty Free and Retail
- Cargo Handling / Concessions
- Ground Handling
- Catering
- Ground Transport
- Advertisement

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 Aeronautical Revenue Non Aeronautical Revenues
- Cute Income
- Car Parks
Utilities Recovered
Other Non-Aeronautical Revenues

5.5.1 Aeronautical Revenues

The following assumptions have been made in the process of projecting aeronautical
revenues:

4 The number of departing passengers and aircraft landings are defined using the
LBG traffic forecasts prepared in April 2009. .

4 The sum of revenues per landing aircraft and embarkation fees are calculated
based on the current tariff structure applied at CSIA and take into consideration
the expected change in fleet mix at the airports and the projected number of
domestic and international departing passengers.
4 The current tariffs are maintained constant in real terms over the 30 year period.
It should be noted that while existing airport concessions in India include a
formula for adjusting aeronautical tariffs during the course of the concession
period, for purposes of this preliminary analysis it is assumed that they will only
be adjusted for inflation.

The passenger service fees are estimated using the rates shown in Table 5-2.

Passenger Service Charges are collected for each embarked (departing) passenger using
either scheduled or non-scheduled flights.

Table 5-2
Passenger Service Charge

Passenger
Charge

International passenger US$ 5.18 per departing passenger

Domestic passenger Rs. 207.00 per departing passenger

The rates for landing, housing and parking are presented in Table 5-3, broken down by
ICAO aircraft category, along with the average MTOW for each category at CSIA during
2008. Future revenues from these charges are based on a forecast of landings by ICAO
Category.

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 Table 5-3
Landing, Housing and Parking Charges

Average MTOW Landing Charges (Rs) Housing Charges (Rs) Parking Charges (Rs)
ICAO Category (mt) CSIA- Rate per landing Rate per hour Rate per hour***
2008
Fixed Variable Fixed Variable Fixed Variable
A/B 7.7 0 250.50 0 8.10 0 4.10
International

C 72.4 0 250.50 0 8.10 0 4.10

D 146.8 25,050 336.60 * 810 10.80 * 410 5.40 *
E/F 301.0 25,050 336.60 * 810 10.80 * 410 5.40 *
A/B (other) 7.7 0 187.90 0 8.10 0 4.10
B (Scheduled) 21.5 0 0.00 ** 0 8.10 0 4.10
Domestic

C 67.6 0 187.90 0 8.10 0 4.10

D 165.0 18,790 252.50 * 810 10.80 * 410 5.40 *
E 195.5 18,790 252.50 * 810 10.80 * 410 5.40 *
* per mt over 100 mt
** Excemption on Domestic Scheduled Aircraft w ith less than 80 seats
*** No parking charges during first tw o hours. Night parking charges betw een 2200 hours to 0600 hours are 50%

5.5.2 Non-Aeronautical Revenues

Most non-aeronautical revenues were estimated by calculating ratios between actual

revenues, terminal size and traffic levels at CSIA for 2004-05. These were then projected
towards the future using various growth assumptions developed based on LBG’s experience
with similar airports elsewhere and the benchmarking data obtained for this study.

Commercial activities have been a significant source of revenues in major international

airports around the world. Over past decades, the commercial/retail travel segment has
emerged as an important force in the travel services market around the world. It is
estimated that the amount of global sales worldwide have raised from US $2 billion early in
the 1970’s up to more than US $90 billion in 2000.

One of the factors that have boosted commercial activities in the airport sector is the
increasing participation of the private sector in airport administration. In the past, many
countries considered airports as typical public infrastructure with most of their revenues
being directly related to air navigation activities. However, in recent years and under the
management of both the public and private sector, airports have demonstrated their capacity
to generate additional earnings, particularly through commercial activities.

Non-aero activities at CSIA during 2004 were still an early development stage, not fully
taking advantage of opportunities to increase the level of service and non-aeronautical
revenues per passenger. Thus, a key factor taken into account was the potential for
increases in efficiency at NMIA under a JVC compared to CSIA when it was under AAI
administration.

Table 5-4 presents a break down of the current ratios and growth assumptions for Non-
Aeronautical Revenues.

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 Table 5-4
Assumptions for Estimating Non-Aeronautical Revenues

Revenue Category Rate Driver Source / Assumptions

Rents
Passenger Terminal Trading CSIA 2004, Increased by 33% for Efficiency gains,
1277 Rs./m2/month
Concessions adjusted to 2009 prices
CSIA 2004, Increased by 11% for Efficiency gains,
Passenger Terminal Offices & Other 1091 Rs./m2/month
adjusted to 2009 prices
CSIA 2004, Increased by 22% for Efficiency gains,
Cargo Terminal Rent (1) 404 / 28 Rs./m2/month
adjusted to 2009 prices

Hangers & Other Buildings 45 Rs./m2/month Benchmark: 3.5% Terminal Retail Concession Rate

CIDCO (rental value of land in Navi Mumbai - 60

Airport Land 28 Rs./m2/month
year lease)
CIDCO (rental value of land in Navi Mumbai - 60
Adjacent Commercial Area 28 Rs./m2/month
year lease)
CSIA 2004, Increased by 50% for Efficiency gains,
Concession Royalties & Other 274 Rs./Dept. Pax/Year
adjusted to 2009 prices

Utilities Recovered 23% of Utiliites Expend.

(1) Rate depends on w hether cargo terminals constructed by JVC or by Third Party

Table 5-5 presents an estimate of the developed (available) and used (occupied) areas
during each development phase. Two key assumptions used in this table are:

4 In the case of the development of the adjacent commercial area, only the land
available for commercial or residential lease to third parties is included.

4 It is assumed that within 15 years of the opening of the airport, 80% of

commercial land on the airport property and 70% of the available commercial
land in the adjacent area will be occupied and producing revenue.

Table 5-5
Estimate of Areas Developed and Utilized (m2)

Areas 2014 2017 2022 2027 2031

Passenger Terminal Trading
Occupied 8,973 8,973 10,330 16,049 17,412
Concessions

Passenger Terminal Offices & Other Occupied 19,752 19,752 22,740 35,328 38,329

Cargo Terminals Occupied 32,994 32,994 47,598 77,169 103,463

Total 315,000 315,000 315,000 450,000 450,000

Airport Commercial Land
Occupied 99,000 147,000 207,000 402,000 402,000
Adjacent (Non-Aeronautical) Total 0 759,616 1,896,384 2,276,192 2,656,000
Commercial Land Occupied 0 455,770 1,232,650 1,593,334 1,859,200

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5.6 Operating Expenses (OPEX)

As with operating revenues, operating expenses were estimated based on 2004 financial
information for CSIA, modified to take into account benchmarks from other similar airports. In
order to keep the methodology straightforward, the Consultant developed multiplication
factors (ratios) to be used for estimating the different operating cost elements or applied
either forecasted traffic growth rates or the size and value of airport facilities. As an example
of the first of these, terminal building maintenance costs are estimated as a function of the
size of the terminals. The factors used to estimate operating costs at NMIA are shown in
Table 5-6.

Personnel costs are estimated based on a detailed projection of the number of employees
for the JVC, broken down both by functional area and by wage category. This projection
was prepared using the following steps.

1. Estimate of number of employees in 2017 (with 20 million annual passengers) based

on benchmarks derived from a selection of top rated Asian and worldwide airports,
adjusted based on the distribution of services that are assumed will be the
responsibility of the JVC.3

Table 5-6
Assumptions for Estimating Operational Expenditures

Cost Category Rate Driver Source / Assumptions

Administrative
CSIA 2004, adjusted for benchmarks. Base year
Administrative & General 30.00% of pax growth
adjusted to 2009 prices
of Terminal Asset
Insurance Premium 0.23% taken from Benchmarks
Value/year
Provision Bad Debt 1.00% of Gross Revenues taken from Benchmarks
CSIA 2004, adjusted for benchmarks. Base year
Other 30.00% of pax growth
adjusted to 2009 prices
Repairs & Maintenance
Pavements 0.60% of Asset Value/year taken from Benchmarks
Structures/Buildings 1.20% of Asset Value/year taken from Benchmarks

Vehicles/Utilities 7.50% of Asset Value/year taken from Benchmarks

Equipment 3.00% of Asset Value/year taken from Benchmarks

Stores & Spares 4.25 Rs./Pax/Year CSIA 2004, adjusted to 2009 prices

Utilities
2
(90% of Cost) 2,555 Rs./m PTB/Year CSIA 2004, adjusted to 2009 prices

(10% of Cost) 35 Rs./Pax/Year CSIA 2004, adjusted to 2009 prices

3
The primary airports considered in this particular analysis were Inchon, Hong Kong, and Singapore in Asia, as well as San
Francisco and Madrid (Barajas).

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 2. Projection of the number of employees required for each functional area in future
years based on four alternative criteria, depending on the position:

4 10% of the growth rate of passengers

4 50% of the growth rate of landings

4 50% of the growth rate of air cargo

4 75% of the growth rate of passenger terminal area

Table 5-7 presents the forecast of number of employees by functional area.

Table 5-7
Projection of Number of Employees

Area 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032

Direction 11 11 11 12 14
Operations 91 260 754 1,077 1,349
ARFF 134 134 134 134 134
Infrastructure & Maintenance 86 95 108 119 148
Commercial 9 10 13 14 15
Administration 45 58 76 82 85
Total 375 568 1,095 1,436 1,745

3. This forecast was verified against the benchmark sample. With this forecast, NMIA
would average 36,000 passengers per employee, which is very similar to the average
benchmark of 35,000 passengers per employee.

4. The forecasted number of employees for each wage category was then multiplied by
wages and benefits associated with each category. These costs were estimated
based on 2004 personnel costs at CSIA, multiplied by 2.09 to take into account
higher salary levels expected to be paid by the JVC and to express in 2009 prices.
Table 5-8 presents the resulting average wage & benefits levels associated with each
category of employee.

Table 5-8
Wage and Benefits per Category of Employee

Category Cost
Rs./Month
General manager 434,000
Managers 105,080
Engineers / professionals 66,355
Supervisors 55,445
Technicians / assistants 49,860
Workers / secretaries 44,275

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5.7 Results

Results were obtained for four key scenarios that depend on whether the JVC is responsible
for the substantial costs of purchasing and developing land on the airport site and whether
it’s given responsibility for the development and administration of the planned commercial
area adjacent to the airport property.

These Scenarios are:

1. With land purchase & development, and without commercial area development and
rents

2. Without land purchase & development, and without commercial area development
and rents

3. With land purchase & development, and with commercial area development and
rents
4. Without land purchase & development, and with commercial area development and
rents

The following is the Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of cash flows
available to the JVC obtained from the Base Case of the financial evaluation model. The
present value of cash flow is discounted at 12% in real terms.

Table 5-9 presents a summary of the financial feasibility analysis for the four scenarios
described previously.

Table 5-9
Summary of the Financial Feasibility Analysis

Includes Includes Land Internal

Scenario Revenue Purchase & NPV @ 12% Rate of
Commercial Develop. (Rs. 000s) Return\
Area
Scenario 1 No Yes 2,130,248 13.1%

Scenario 2 No No 20,067,934 43.9%

Scenario 3 Yes Yes 929,289 12.4%

Scenario 4 Yes No 18,866,975 39.5%

These results would indicate the following:

1. Though the project is feasible in financial terms under all four scenarios in so far as
they produce potential returns above a minimum of 12%, it only offers potential
returns that would be attractive to an investor if a third party covers the initial costs of
the purchase and development of the land.

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 2. On the other hand, allowing the JVC to develop and collect rental revenues for the
development of the planned adjacent commercial areas has a relatively small impact
on the feasibility of the project.

Given the imprecise nature of some of the assumptions utilized in this preliminary feasibility
analysis, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the results of Scenarios 1 and 2,
incorporating the following variables:

4 Traffic Forecast Scenario

4 Increase in Operational Expenses

4 Increase in Capital Expenses

Table 5-10 shows a summary of the sensitivity analysis for both scenarios described above.

Table 5-10
Summary of the Sensitivity Analysis
SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2

NPV @ 12% Internal Rate NPV @ 12% Internal Rate

Scenario Scenario
of Return\ of Return\
(Rs 000s) (Rs 000s)
Scenario 1 (Base) 2,130,248 13.1% Scenario 2 (Base) 20,067,934 43.9%
High Traffic Forecast 11,094,619 17.6% High Traffic Forecast 29,032,305 61.4%
Low Traffic Forecast (6,324,270) 8.9% Low Traffic Forecast 11,613,415 28.6%
+ 20% CAPEX (5,028,459) 9.8% + 20% CAPEX 16,496,763 34.1%
+ 20% OPEX (493,072) 11.7% + 20% OPEX 17,444,613 41.2%

These results would indicate that the feasibility of the project is not as sensitive to changes
in costs as revenues as it is to the issue of who is responsible for land purchases and land
development.

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