Handbook On The External Costs of Transport
Handbook On The External Costs of Transport
Handbook On The External Costs of Transport
costs of transport
Version 2019 – 1.1
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ISBN 978-92-76-18184-2
doi: 10.2832/51388
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List of tables 13
List of figures 20
Acknowledgements 22
1 Introduction 23
1.1 Background of the Handbook 23
1.2 Objective 24
1.3 Scope 24
1.4 User guide: how to use this Handbook 28
1.5 Outline of the Handbook 29
3 Accident costs 38
3.1 Introduction 38
3.2 Definition and scope 38
3.3 Total and average accident costs 41
3.4 Marginal accident costs 46
3.5 Robustness of results 49
11 Synthesis 151
11.1Introduction 151
11.2Overview total and average external costs 151
11.3Comparison with previous studies 164
11.4Recommendations for further assessment 171
References 172
Table 7 – External accident costs components per casualty for the EU28 (€2016 )................. 44
Table 8 – Total and average external accident costs for land-based modes for the EU28..... 45
Table 9 – Total and average external accident costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports 46
Table 10 – Total and average external accident costs for maritime transport for 34 selected
EU ports.................................................................................................................. 46
Table 12 – Marginal external accident costs road transport for the EU28.......................... 48
Table 13 – Data sources for the emissions of air pollutants for different transport modes ... 55
Table 14 – Air pollution costs: average damage cost in €/kg emission, national averages for
transport emissions in 2016 (excl. maritime) (All effects: health effects, crop loss, biodiversity
loss, material damage) .............................................................................................. 55
Table 15 – Air pollution costs: average damage cost in €/kg emission, national averages for
maritime emissions in 2016 (all effects: health effects, crop loss, biodiversity loss, material
damage) ................................................................................................................. 56
Table 16 - Total and average air pollution costs for land-based modes for the EU28........... 57
Table 17 – Total and average air pollution costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports ..... 57
Table 18 – Rough estimates for total and average external air pollution costs for maritime
transport for 34 selected EU ports .............................................................................. 58
Table 19 – Marginal air pollution costs road transport for selected cases.......................... 58
Table 20 - Marginal air pollution costs rail transport for selected cases ............................ 67
Table 21 – Marginal air pollution costs IWT for selected cases ........................................ 69
Table 22 – Marginal air pollution costs maritime transport for selected cases ................... 70
Table 25 - Total and average climate change costs for land-based modes for the EU28....... 78
Table 26 – Total and average climate costs for aviation for selected 33 EU airports ............ 79
Table 27 – Rough estimates for total and average external climate change costs for maritime
transport for 34 selected EU ports .............................................................................. 79
Table 28 - Marginal climate change costs road transport for selected cases ...................... 80
Table 29 – Marginal climate change costs rail transport for selected cases........................ 88
Table 30 – Marginal climate change costs IWT for selected cases .................................... 88
Table 31 – Marginal climate change costs maritime transport for selected cases ............... 89
Table 32 – Marginal climate change costs aviation for selected cases............................... 89
Table 33 – Environmental price of traffic noise for the EU28 (€ 2016 /dB/person/year) .......... 95
Table 34 – Weighting factors for noise for different vehicle types .................................... 95
Table 35 - Total and average noise costs for land-based modes for the EU28 .................... 97
Table 36 – Total and average noise costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports............... 97
Table 37 – Marginal noise costs road transport – in €-cent (2016) per pkm, tkm or vkm (data
for 2016) ................................................................................................................. 99
Table 38 - Marginal noise costs rail transport – in €-cent (2016) per pkm and tkm (data for
2016).................................................................................................................... 100
Table 39 – Marginal noise costs for aviation: data for different aircraft types .................. 100
Table 40 – Marginal noise costs for aviation, estimations based on average costs (data for
2016).................................................................................................................... 101
Table 41 - Total and average congestion costs borne by road vehicle categories in the EU28
............................................................................................................................ 111
Table 42 - Total and average congestion cost of inter-urban traffic borne by vehicle
categories on motorways network............................................................................ 111
Table 43 - Total and average congestion costs generated by road vehicle categories in the
EU28 according to the simplified approach used ......................................................... 112
Table 44 - Total and average congestion cost generated of inter-urban traffic by vehicle
categories on motorways network, according to the simplified approach used................ 113
Table 45 – Social marginal congestion costs of road transport per pkm and tkm .............. 116
Table 47 – Social marginal congestion costs of road transport generated per pkm and tkm
using the simplified approach .................................................................................. 119
Table 48 – Social marginal congestion costs of road transport generated per vkm using the
simplified approach ................................................................................................ 119
Table 49 – Well-to-tank air pollution costs: damage cost estimates in €/kg emission
(emissions in the year 2016, EU28 values).................................................................. 125
Table 50 – Total and average costs of well-to-tank emissions for land-based modes for the
EU28 .................................................................................................................... 126
Table 51 – Total and average well-to-tank costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports ... 126
Table 52 – Rough estimates for total and average external well-to-tank costs for maritime
transport for 34 selected EU ports ............................................................................ 127
Table 54 – Average/marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions rail transport for selected cases
............................................................................................................................ 136
Table 55 – Average/marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions IWT for selected cases (€-cent
per tkm)................................................................................................................ 136
Table 57 – Average/marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions aviation for selected cases .. 137
Table 59 – Cost factors for costs of habitat damage for all countries .............................. 141
Table 61 – Total and average costs of habitat damage for land-based transport modes in the
EU28 .................................................................................................................... 144
Table 62 – Total and average habitat costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports .......... 144
Table 64 – Total external costs 2016 for road transport, rail transport and IWT per country
............................................................................................................................ 153
Table 65 – Total external costs 2016 for EU28 passenger transport by cost category and
transport mode...................................................................................................... 154
Table 67 – Total external costs for selected EU28 (air)ports .......................................... 156
Table 68 – Indicative estimates for the most relevant total external costs for all EU28
(air)ports............................................................................................................... 157
Table 70 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28 passenger transport by cost category and
transport mode...................................................................................................... 160
Table 71 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28 freight transport by cost category and
transport mode...................................................................................................... 161
Table 72 – Average external costs for selected EU28 (air)ports...................................... 162
Table 73 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28 by country and transport mode (excluding
congestion)*.......................................................................................................... 163
Table 77 – Overview of the literature on percentages of the VSL used for serious and slight
injuries ................................................................................................................. 198
Table 78 – Overview of human costs for new EU injury definition, EU28 aggregate value .. 200
Table 79 – Overview of values used in 2014 Handbook for the degree of risk internalisation
for marginal costs................................................................................................... 205
Table 80 – Concentration-response functions and external air pollution costs ................. 209
Table 84 – Valuation of noise annoyance in the EU28 in €2016 per person per dB, Lden........ 235
Table 85 – Noise Sensitivity Depreciation Index (NSDI) results of hedonic price studies..... 236
Table 86 – Health costs used for the EU28 (€2016/person/dB/year) based on Defra (2014)240
Table 87 - Value of time by purpose and country for short and long distance trips by car
(Euro2016/hour per person) .................................................................................... 245
Table 91 - EU28 Delay costs per vkm of road transport on congested network ................ 252
Table 92 - Average yearly delay cost and deadweight loss per capita depending on city
population size: TomTom sample data (EURO2016 /capita) ............................................. 254
Table 93 - Average yearly delay cost and deadweight loss per capita depending on city
population size in non-EU regions: TomTom sample data (EURO2016 /capita)................... 259
Table 94 - Passenger Car Value of Time and average occupancy factor in EU28 and non-EU
regions ................................................................................................................. 260
Table 95 - Car urban congestion costs in EU28 and non-EU regions................................ 260
Table 96 - Total delay congestion costs generated by road modes, estimated using the
simplified approach (billion Euro/year, in Euro2016 ) ...................................................... 260
Table 97 - Total deadweight loss generated by road modes, estimated using the simplified
approach (billion Euro/year, in Euro2016 ) .................................................................... 262
Table 99 - Total car congestion costs (billion Euro/year, in Euro2016 )............................... 266
Table 100 - Total trucks, coaches and LCVs inter-urban congestion costs (billion Euro/year, in
Euro2016 )................................................................................................................ 267
Table 101 - Total trucks urban congestion costs (billion Euro/year, in Euro2016 )................ 268
Table 102 - Total inter-urban congestion costs on motorway network (billion Euro/year, in
Euro2016 )................................................................................................................ 269
Table 103 - Car deadweight loss per vkm on congested network (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) 271
Table 104 - Inter-urban deadweight loss per vkm borne on congested network for trucks and
coaches (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) ............................................................................. 274
Table 105 - Car delay costs per vkm borne on congested network (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 )
............................................................................................................................ 276
Table 106 - Inter-urban delay congestion costs per vkm borne on congested network for
trucks and coaches (Euro Cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) ......................................................... 278
Table 107 - Car average delay congestion cost and deadweight loss generated per vkm,
estimated using the simplified approach (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 )................................. 281
Table 109 – Freight HGV average delay congestion cost and deadweight loss generated per
vkm, estimated using the simplified approach (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) ......................... 285
Table 110 – Light commercial vehicle average delay congestion cost and deadweight loss
generated per vkm, estimated using the simplified approach (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 )..... 287
Table 111 - Car average delay congestion cost and deadweight loss brone per vkm (€-
cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) ............................................................................................. 288
Table 112 - Average inter-urban delay congestion costs and deadweight loss borne for HGV,
coaches and LCV (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) ................................................................. 289
Table 113 - Average urban delay congestion costs and deadweight loss borne for trucks (€-
cent/vkm, in Euro2016) ........................................................................................... 290
Table 114 - Average inter-urban delay congestion costs and deadweight loss borne on
motorway network (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 )............................................................. 291
Table 115 - Car social marginal congestion costs per vkm (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) .......... 293
Table 116 - Inter-urban social marginal congestion costs for trucks and coaches (€-cent/vkm,
in Euro2016 ) ............................................................................................................ 296
Table 117 - Inter-urban social marginal congestion costs generated for HGV, estimated using
the simplified approach (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 )........................................................ 298
Table 118 - Social marginal congestion costs generated for LCVs per vkm, estimated using the
simplified approach (€-cent/vkm, in Euro2016 ) ............................................................. 300
Table 119 - Marginal external costs of congestion of rail freight transport €-cent/1,000 tkm
(2016 prices) ......................................................................................................... 303
Table 120 – Literature on external costs of habitat damage due to transport activities ..... 306
Table 121 – Total external costs of transport on motorways in the EU28 (billion €) .......... 308
Table 122 – Average external costs of transport on motorways in the EU28.................... 309
Table 123 – Total external costs of transport in the EU27 (billion €) ............................... 311
Table 124 – Total external costs of transport for selected (air)ports in the EU27 (billion €) 312
Table 125 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – passenger cars (in €-
cent/pkm) ............................................................................................................. 313
Table 126 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – motorcycles and mopeds
(in €-cent/pkm) ...................................................................................................... 314
Table 127 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – buses (in €-cent/pkm) .. 315
Table 129 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – LCVs (in €-cent/vkm) .... 316
Table 130 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – HGVs (in €-cent/tkm) ... 317
Table 131 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – passenger trains (in €-
cent/pkm) ............................................................................................................. 318
Table 132 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – freight trains (in €-
cent/tkm).............................................................................................................. 319
Table 133 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – IWT (in €-cent/tkm) ..... 321
Table 134 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – maritime transport (in €-
cent/pkm (ferry) and €-cent/tkm (vessels)) ................................................................ 321
Table 135 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – aviation (in €-cent/pkm) 322
Table 136 – Marginal air pollution costs (averages for metropolitan, urban and rural regions)
............................................................................................................................ 322
Figure 4 – The Impact Pathway Approach for calculating air pollution costs ...................... 53
Figure 8 – Methodology for estimating urban congestion costs for delay cost and deadweight
loss approaches ..................................................................................................... 107
Figure 9 – Methodology for estimating inter-urban congestion costs for delay cost and
deadweight loss approaches .................................................................................... 108
Figure 11 – Methodology total and average costs of habitat damage ............................. 140
Figure 12 – Total external costs 2016 for EU28 (excluding congestion) ........................... 152
Figure 13 – Share of the different cost categories on total external costs 2016 for EU28... 152
Figure 14 – Share of the different transport modes on total external costs 2016 for EU28. 152
Figure 15 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28: passenger transport (excluding
congestion) ........................................................................................................... 158
Figure 16 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28: freight transport (excluding congestion)
............................................................................................................................ 159
Figure 17 – The approach for damage cost calculations: from emission to impact and damage
............................................................................................................................ 208
Figure 18 – Review of avoidance cost values found in the literature (€ 2016 /t CO2 equivalent)
............................................................................................................................ 228
Figure 19 – Comparison of results: DEFRA and Bristow et al. (2015) (€ 2016 per dB per
household) ............................................................................................................ 237
Figure 22- Example of speed-flow functions for different road types.............................. 244
This updated Handbook on external costs of transport has been developed in the study ‘Sustainable Transport Infrastructure
Charging and Internalisation of Transport Externalities’ commissioned by the European Commission DG MOVE, by a
consortium led by CE Delft. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which the ‘user pays’ and the ‘polluter pays’
principles are implemented in EU Member States and in other developed countries. This will allow DG MOVE to take stock of
the progress of Member States towards the goal of full internalisation of external (and infrastructure) costs of transport and
to identify options for further internalisation.
In 2008 the European Commission commissioned the first Handbook on External Costs of
Transport, as part of the IMPACT study (Infras, CE Delft, ISI & University of Gdansk, 2008).
This Handbook presented the best practice on the methodology to estimate different
categories of external costs of transport. Additionally, it provided an overview of state of
the art input values (e.g. the value of time or the value of a statistical life) that can be
used to produce estimations of external costs by users of the Handbook themselves.
Finally, the Handbook presented external cost figures (mostly presented in €/vehicle
kilometre), which can be used directly by the users.
The 2008 Handbook focus was on marginal external costs of transport as a basis for the
definition of internalisation policies (in line with the marginal social cost pricing principle).
It covered all main external cost categories, including air pollution, climate change, noise,
accidents and congestion. The Handbook was based on the existing (up to 2007) scientific
and expert work, mainly carried out at the EU level and within European countries. It was
In 2014 the Handbook was updated with new developments in research and policy (Ricardo-
AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014). Furthermore, the scope was broadened: next to the
external costs of transport, infrastructure wear and tear costs for road and rail transport
were covered as well. In line with the 2008 Handbook, the focus of the 2014 Handbook was
on marginal external costs of transport. Next to the Handbook, an accompanying Excel file
was produced, containing country specific estimates of the main external costs of road and
rail transport.
This Handbook is an update of the 2008 and 2014 version, taking into account any new
evidence that has become available on the methods and input values (e.g. emission factors)
for estimating external costs of transport in research and policy since 2014. This version of
the Handbook does not only consider marginal external costs, as was the main focus of the
previous Handbooks, but also total and average external costs of transport in all
EU-countries, Switzerland and Norway. Furthermore, external cost figures for some
non-European countries were produced to compare them with the European figures.
1.2 Objective
The objective of this Handbook is to provide information on how to generate state-of-the-
art estimates for all main external costs of transport. This information is provided at three
levels:
— Methodological level: what are the state of the art methodologies to estimate figures
for the various external costs of transport?
— Input values: which input values (particularly at monetary terms, e.g. the value of time)
are recommended to use to estimate external costs of transport?
— Output values: which default external cost values for different transport modes (and if
meaningful, for different traffic situations) can be recommended?
In this Handbook, state of the art methodologies, input values and output values for total,
average and marginal external costs of transport are provided, both at the EU28 level as at
the level of individual countries. This is done for all transport modes and all (main) external
cost categories.
1.3 Scope
− Passenger car − High speed passenger train − Inland − Freight vessel − Passenger
(HSL) vessel aircraft
− Motorcycle − Ferry
− Passenger train electric
− Bus
− Passenger train diesel
− Coach
− Freight train electric
− LCV
− Freight train diesel
− Heavy Goods Vehicle
(HGV)
* Freight aviation is not considered in this Handbook, as the data to provide reliable figures on all external cost categories is
missing.
________________________________
1 Both for the US and Canada, a front runner and laggard state/province with respect to the internalisation of
external costs have been selected. For the US, California has been selected as a front runner state, among other
things because fuel and vehicle taxes are among the highest in the US and broad enabling legislation for toll
roads has been implemented. Furthermore, California is known for its progressive policies in the transport
sector (e.g. regarding electric vehicles). Missouri, on the other hand, shows relatively low fuel and vehicle taxes
as well as limited road charging legislation, suggesting a low level of internalisation. For that reason, Missouri is
selected a laggard state. According to Corporate Knights (2015), British Columbia can be regarded as the
Canadian province with the highest environmental performance for the transport sector, while Alberta is ranked
lowest. Therefore, British Columbia (front-runner) and Alberta (laggard) has been selected as Canadian
provinces in this study.
2. In Canada and the US, the two largest airports are included.
3. In Europe, the five largest airports, which are not already included in the criteria
above, are also considered.
4. Only international airports (with international flights) are covered in the analysis.
— Maritime ports:
1. All 24 maritime ports considered in the study ‘Assessment of potential of maritime
and inland ports and inland waterways and of related policy measures, including
industrial policy measures’ (EY, et al., ongoing) are covered. The maritime ports
considered in this study provide a good representation of main EU ports with growth
potential up to 2030.
2. As not all countries were covered by the ports selected in Step 1, an additional set of
ten ports was included to cover the main maritime ports for all European countries
considered in this study.
4. A sample of five overseas ports in the US, Canada and Japan have been selected.
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2
This is done to be consistent with the other studies carried out within the broader study on the internalisation
of external and infrastructure costs (see text box in Section 1). Both in the study on infrastructure costs and the
study on taxes and charges the (air)port level is a more appropriate scope than the country level, as data on
infrastructure costs and taxes/charges are mainly available at the (air)port level.
Road transport performance data is taken from Eurostat, following the nationality principle,
i.e. transport activity is allocated to countries where the vehicle is registered. In an
The guidelines at these three levels (methodologies, input values and output values) are
given for each external cost category in Chapters 3 to 9 in the main text of this Handbook.
These chapters all follow the same structure:
— Definition and scope of the externality considered is briefly discussed.
— Recommended methodologies, input values and output values for total/average cost
figures are presented. Input and output values are presented for the EU28.
Each of the external cost chapters in the main text has its own annex (Annex B to G), which
provides:
— A more detailed discussion of the impacts of the externality (if relevant).
— A brief discussion on the methodologies and input values recommended by the previous
Handbook.
— A detailed overview of recent evidence in the literature (mainly studies published since
the previous version of the Handbook) on the methodology and input values to estimate
the external costs, including a critical assessment of this evidence. This literature
review is focussed on both total/average and marginal external costs.
— Conclusions on the best practice methodologies and input values to be recommended in
this Handbook. These recommendations are compared with the recommendations made
in the previous Handbook and any deviations are explained.
In addition to these external cost specific annexes, a more general annex on the economic
valuation of human health is provided (Annex A). This annex provides an overview of
indicators to valuate impacts on human health as well as evidence from literature on the
value of these indicators. Based on this assessment, recommended approaches to valuate
impacts on human health are provided. These recommended approaches are used in
providing input and output values for external cost categories like air pollution, noise and
accidents in a consistent way.
Finally, a synthesis of the results is presented in the last chapter of this Handbook,
comparing total, average and marginal cost values between countries and transport modes.
Furthermore, a brief comparison with previous studies (including the previous Handbooks) is
presented.
The various costs can be added up to retrieve the total external costs per transport mode,
although it should be noted that the totals per vehicle type reported in the handbook may
not necessarily sum up to the total per mode due to rounding errors. Furthermore, it should
be noted that this Handbook the scope for aviation and maritime shipping is a selection of
EU (air)ports, while for the other modes the costs are presented for the EU28. In order to
allow a cross modal comparison, also estimates for the total costs for EU28 for aviation and
maritime shipping are presented, based on extrapolation of the costs for the selected
(air)ports.
The user needs also to be aware that whilst in all cases the same issue is being measured in
principle (what economists call the external social welfare impacts), the nature of the
various cost categories is different and therefore different methodologies were used.
External costs of transport refer to the difference between social costs (i.e. all costs to
society due to the provision and use of transport infrastructure) and private costs of
transport (i.e. the costs directly borne by the transport user). As the market does not
provide an incentive to transport users to take external costs into account, they only take
part of the social costs into account when taking a transport decision, resulting in sub-
optimal outcomes. By internalising these costs, externalities are made part of the decision
making process of transport users. This can be done through regulation (i.e. command and
control measures) or by providing the right incentives to transport users, namely with
market based instruments (e.g. taxes, charges, emission trading, etc.). A combination of
these two basic types of instruments is possible, e.g. taxes differentiated to Euro emission
classes of vehicles.
For some externalities (e.g. air pollution, climate change) average and marginal cost figures
are (approximately) equal to the size of the externality and do not depend on the density of
the traffic flow. A car entering a dense traffic flow emits the same amount of air pollutant
emissions as a car entering a thin traffic flow, assuming that all other factors are equal
(location, speed, etc.). However, for other externalities (e.g. accidents, noise, and
congestion) the costs do depend on the density of the traffic flow. For example, a car
entering a road with free flow traffic, will cause marginal external congestion costs that are
significantly lower than the average external congestion costs. However, when a car enters
the traffic flow, at the moment the capacity of the road is almost met, it will cause
marginal external congestion costs that are significantly higher than the average costs.
Whether average or marginal external costs figures should be used depends on the scope
and objective of the assessment for which the figures will be applied. For assessments on
the internalisation of external costs, marginal cost figures should be considered when
internalisation is considered from an economic efficiency point of view (marginal social cost
pricing). However, from an equity point of view, it may be more interesting to see whether
vehicles are charges at their average costs (‘average cost pricing’), ensuring that the
transport sector or vehicle categories pay for the costs they impose on society. Average and
marginal external costs may also be used for other purposes, e.g. social cost benefit
analyses, cost-effectiveness analyses of other welfare economics analyses. In these cases, it
depends on the actual scope of such analyses whether the appliance of marginal or average
cost figures is preferred. For example, for a social cost benefit analysis of the realisation of
a new road, the noise costs can best be estimated by average cost figures (as there is no
existing traffic situation). On the other hand, for a social cost benefit analysis of an
extension of a road from two to four lanes, the use of marginal cost figures is preferred (as
the change in an existing traffic situation is assessed).
________________________________
3
In other words, average costs are calculated by dividing the total costs by the total transport performance.
There are several methods available for estimating the WTP, falling broadly into two
categories:
— Stated preference (SP) methods use questionnaires or experiments where respondents
are asked to provide their WTP (or WTA) to avoid the damage of the externality.
SP methods can take two forms: contingent valuation (through use of questionnaires or
surveys, where respondents are directly asked for their WTP for a certain good) and
choice experiments (where respondents are asked to pick their most favoured
alternative from different packages, and WTP is inferred indirectly). SP methods
directly measure the WTP and they also allow the researcher to control for all external
factors, such that purely the externality considered is identified. On the other hand,
SP methods depend very much on the survey/experiment design and the level of
information, and it suffers from the fact that it involves hypothetical expenditures only.
Also avoiding strategic behaviour of respondents is a main challenge of these kind of
studies.
— Revealed preference (RP) methods deduce the monetary value of externalities from
transactions on other economic markets, e.g. the real estate market. The most
commonly used RP method is the hedonic price method, which uses price differences on
the house market to estimate the WTP for the reduction of transport noise or emissions.
The main strength of RP methods is that it relies on actual market behaviour, where
individuals’ WTP for avoiding a specific externality can be observed. However, the
results from RP studies are sensitive to the conditions of the markets observed.
Furthermore, lack of knowledge of the market actors on the damage caused by the
externality may seriously affect the reliability of the results of RP studies.
In this Handbook damage costs are applied for several external cost categories, including air
pollution, accidents and noise.
The unit value transfer procedure consists of transferring the primary data from the original
location directly to the new location. This can either be a direct transfer (simple unit
transfer) or with slight adjustments, such as exchange rate, inflation and income (unit
transfer with income adjustments). The benefit function transfer approach consists of
estimating a function that establishes the relationship between the unit value and the
characteristics at the original site in order to predict the values at another site.
Although theoretically superior due to it taking more information into account, the benefit
________________________________
4
Considerations should be made here on the purpose of the analysis, see Ready & Navrud (2006).
Where 𝑊𝑇𝑃𝑃𝑆 is the WTP transferred to the study site, 𝑊𝑇𝑃𝑆𝑆 is the WTP at the study
site, 𝐼𝑂𝑆 and 𝐼𝑠𝑠 are income at the other and study sites, and 𝜀 is income elasticity of
WTP. Income is defined as PPP-adjusted GDP/capita in this Handbook7 . For the income
elasticity a value of 0.8 is recommended, indicating that environmental goods can be
considered normal goods. This value of the income elasticity is based on an extensive
meta-analysis of the OECD, which concludes that the income elasticity for the WTP of
environmental and health related goods falls between 0.7 and 0.9.
— Other differences. Input and output values can be further adjusted based on the
specific characteristics of the externality. For example, accident costs should be
adjusted according to accident risk rates. The specific value transfer procedure carried
out for each type of externality is discussed in the relevant chapters.
________________________________
5 Associated to challenges such as low explanatory power due to omitted variables; extrapolating outside range of
the data; variation among individuals not the same as variation among countries; functional form choice, etc.
6 Bateman et al., 2002; OECD, 2011a; Czajkowski et al., 2017.
7
Other income indicators could be used alternatively. Czajkowski and Ščasný (2010) found that using site-specific
measures of income outperforms transfers based on GPD per capita. Ready & Navdrud (2006) provide a
discussion on the key considerations. We have chosen GDP/capita as this is a widely available indicator and used
by several studies, including the previous Handbook.
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8
As the average life expectancy of people increase over time, it may be that the WTP to increase this life
expectancy even longer may decrease. Particularly as the probab ility of additional life years with bad health
conditions grows as life expectancy increases.
It is important to realise that costs related to the prevention or avoidance of crashes are not
included in accident costs. Prevention costs, e.g. police enforcement costs, are not included
because they are not a (direct) consequence of road crashes, but are intended to decrease
the number of crashes (Wijnen, et al., 2017). Furthermore, these are (partly) included in road
infrastructure costs in (CE Delft et al., Forthcoming).
________________________________
9 Please note that there are large differences in the health insurance systems across countries in the EU, e.g. in
terms of deductibles. In general we have assumed that health insurance is a way to (partly) internalise the
health costs, without taking the nuances of the different national health care systems into account.
10
For instance, congestion costs fall under ‘other costs’ but are already included as anoth er category in this
handbook. Other costs such as funeral costs may already be (partly) insured, which no longer renders them
(fully) external.
However, it is important to note that EU countries started collecting data on injuries from traffic accidents using
a new common definition in 2014. This scale, the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS), is based on the most
severe injury in the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) classification system commonly used by medical professionals.
The use of this scale will result in it being easier to classify accident data according to the right category, as this
is the classification system adhered to by hospitals in Europe. This also means the data between countries will
become more harmonised and consistent. The MAIS represents the most severe injury obtained by a casualty
according to the AIS. Serious traffic injuries are now classified as injuries scoring 3 or more on the medical
Maximum AIS (MAIS3+). Therefore, for traffic injury victims MAIS 1 and MAIS 2 are considered slight injuries.
However, figures on the number of seriously injured people according to the new definition are not yet available
for all countries (and not at the same level of detail comparable to the old definition). Therefore, the
estimation of external accident costs in this Handbook will be based on accident figures according to the old
definition. However, we do propose some input values for the new definition of injuries in Annex B.3.2.
It is worth noting that the number of fatalities and injuries in official statistics only
represent reported accidents. However, for road accidents in particular, a portion of the
total accidents go unreported. Therefore, the official road accident data ought to be
corrected for these unreported accidents. The correction factors that are applied in this
study are shown in Table 5, and are based on (HEATCO, 2006), a large EU study, and a
Swiss (Ecoplan, 2002) study. One minor adjustment was made to these correction factors,
the underreporting rate for fatalities was 1.02 in HEATCO & Ecoplan, but a study by
(Ecoplan & Infras, 2014) revealed that there are no longer unreported fatalities from
accidents in Switzerland. We assume that this also holds for the rest of Europe, therefore,
the rate for fatalities has been adjusted to 1.00 (i.e. no underreporting). Previous editions
of the Handbook used the correction factors presented in Table 5 for serious and slight
injuries, but used a factor of 1.02 for fatalities.
The underreporting factors in Table 5 shows that the underreporting rate differs depending
on the vehicle type and the severity of the accident, with more vulnerable road users such
Although the reporting factors are old, there are no more recent studies looking at
underreporting rates at the international level. Studies at the national level confirm that
the factors displayed in Table 5 are reasonable. For instance, studies looking at Korea show
that there are four times as many road traffic victims reported by data from insurance
agencies than there are victims reported by the police (OECD, 2016; Park, 2008).
Other studies at the national level report slightly lower underreporting rates than the
Korean values, e.g. 40-45% underreporting in Australia (Rosman, 2001) and 36%
underreporting in the UK (Mackay, 2003). One recent study even looked at vulnerable road
users in particular and revealed that only 35% of serious injuries with motorcycles are
reported, whereas only 10% of slight injuries are reported (Janstrup , et al., 2016). All in
all, it appears that even though the correction factors from HEATCO are old, there are no
indications that they are outdated.
For the other transport modes such as rail, inland waterway, maritime or aviation, we do
not use correction factors, as accidents occurring in these transport modes are much less
likely to go unnoticed.
3.3.1 Methodology
Total and average accident costs are calculated using a top-down approach, starting with
total accidents and then allocating them to different vehicle types. Figure 1 illustrates the
corresponding methodology for calculating accident costs for road, rail, inland waterway,
maritime and aviation.
Allocation to the different vehicle categories is carried out according to damage potential
(intrinsic risk) if the accidents occur within one transport mode. This method is used in
studies such as (CE Delft & VU Amsterdam, 2004; CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011).11
The method involves allocating the victims in the opposing vehicle to the other vehicle type
involved in the crash and vice versa. For instance, if a fatal accident occurs between a HGV
and a car, and the driver of the HGV sustains a slight injury whereas the driver of the car
dies, the cost of the fatality is allocated to the truck, whereas the cost of the slight injury
is allocated to the car.
For accidents between different modes, such as accidents involving a train and a car, the
casualties are allocated to the party responsible for the accident. In this study, these types
of accidents only occur between road and rail, at level crossings. For these types of
accidents it is known that they are almost always caused by the road user (Jonsson &
________________________________
11
There are two other approaches which could alternatively be used, which are elaborated in more detail in
Annex B.
Accident statistics
The accident statistics that are used for road transport are taken from the EU’s Community
Road Accident Database (CARE). This highly detailed database provides information on
fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries, in which vehicle these victims were seated,
and which other vehicle was involved in the accident at the country level. Statistics are
further split according to road type (urban, rural, motorway and unknown). Because of the
different vehicle types within this transport mode, such detailed data is needed in order to
allocate the costs to the vehicle types according to the vehicle type’s damage potential
(intrinsic risk).
The previous Handbook did not include data on the accident costs of the other transport
modes. In this Handbook we do estimate these costs, although the available data is not as
detailed as the CARE database is for road transport. For these modes, accidents are not as
frequent as for road transport, which is why we use averages over 5 years (2012-2016).
For rail transport, the accident statistics were provided by the European Union Agency for
Railways (ERA). However, the ERA does not collect figures for slight injuries, so the rail
external accident costs are only based on fatalities and serious injuries, and will therefore
be an underestimate. Suicides were excluded from the rail accident data by the ERA.
For aviation the total statistics for the EU28 are provided by European Aviation Safety
Agency, from which an accident rate per movement could be deduced. By combining this
with information on the number of flight movements per airport, the total number of
casualties could be calculated per airport. Please note that these are not the actual
casualties that occurred in that period, but a proxy for the risk. For inland waterways the
accident rate per 1,000 vkm is based on data from the Dutch Department for Waterways
and Public Works. These accidents are also a proxy for the risk of inland waterway
transport, rather than the actual accidents that occurred in the period considered.
For maritime transport, accident statistics were provided by the European Maritime Safety
Agency. These are the actual accidents that occurred over the time period considered.
The only cost component in our calculation that is not based on SafetyCube is the human
cost, the largest part of accident costs. The human costs are valued based on the Value of
Statistical Life (VSL), which we base on the (OECD, 2012). A detailed discussion on the VSL
is presented in Annex A. The EU28 VSL used is € 3.6 million. To avoid double counting with
gross production loss, the consumption loss needs to be deducted from the VSL to reach
________________________________
12
Please note that if the damage potential approach would be used instead of the responsibility perspective this
would result in accident costs that are only very minorly different from the responsibility approach.
Table 6 – External accident cost components per casualty for the EU28 (€2016 )
Human costs Production loss Medical costs Administrative Total external cost
costs per casualty
Fatalities 2,907,921 361,358 2,722 1,909 3,273,909
Serious injuries 464,844 24,055 8,380 1,312 498,591
Slight injuries 35,757 1,472 721 564 38,514
Table 7 – External accident costs components per casualty for the EU28 (€2016 )
Table 8 – Total and average external accident costs for land-based modes for the EU28
________________________________
13
Please note that the costs of motorcycles does not include the costs for mopeds. Moped accidents are roughly
1% of EU fatalities and 2-3% of EU injuries. Although the CARE database has statistics available on moped
fatalities, allocation to mopeds cannot be carried out as there is no transport performance data specifically for
mopeds available.
Table 9 illustrates the average external accident costs of both passenger and freight
aviation. Passenger aviation values are provided per LTO, passenger and pkm. The average
costs of freight aviation are provided per LTO, tonne and tkm. Costs at the individual
airport level are provided in the database.
Table 9 – Total and average external accident costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports
Table 10 – Total and average external accident costs for maritime transport for 34 selected EU ports
3.4.1 Methodology
Marginal accident costs are only calculated for road transport. For all other modes of
transport the marginal accident costs are considered to be equal to the average costs.
This is because the other modes are scheduled services, this implies that the accident
risk is less dependent on the amount of traffic for these modes. Figure 2 illustrates the
methodology for calculating marginal accident costs for road transport.
Risk elasticity
The risk elasticity represents how much the accident risk on a certain road type increases
with a 1% increase in traffic measured in vkms. It is realistically expected to vary with the
road type, road conditions and traffic intensity, although only very few sophisticated
estimates for the risk elasticity exist, and only for individual countries. For instance, a
study by (Sommer et al., 2002) looking at Switzerland found risk elasticities of -0.5, -0.25
and -0.62 for motorway, urban and other roads respectively. Rougher estimates of -0.25
irrespective of the road type were used in (Ricardo-AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014;
Lindberg, 2001). All suggested risk elasticities are negative, implying that although an
increase in traffic increases the risk of an accident, the risk of an accident injury or fatality
decreases (Hesjevoll & Elvik, 2016). However, one could argue this is not necessarily true
for urban roads, where congestion and already slow traffic imply that the addition of an
extra vehicle will not lead to a significant change in the accident risk (i.e. risk elasticity of
0). This is the approach taken in (CE Delft & VU, 2014). Therefore, the recommended
It is important to note that the risk elasticity (𝐸) and the degree of risk internalisation (𝜃)
combined lead to interesting results. If 𝜃 − 𝐸 > 1, the marginal costs are negative (Ricardo-
AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014). This implies that with each vehicle entering the road the
average accident costs decreases. If 𝜃 − 𝐸 < 1, the marginal costs are positive and the
accident costs always increases with each additional vehicle. With a risk elasticity set at
-0.25 (motorways and other roads), this implies that heavy goods vehicles, busses, coaches,
LCVs, passenger cars and other vehicles all have positive marginal costs. In this case,
negative marginal costs exist for motorcyclists.
Table 12 – Marginal external accident costs road transport for the EU28
The interpretation of negative marginal external accident costs (i.e. for motorcyclists) is
somewhat confusing. Because traffic tends to slow down with each extra driver, the traffic
becomes safer for all other traffic participants. However, the extra road user has a higher
accident risk (compared to no accident risk if he decides not to take part in traffic).
The moment where the risk of an accident on other traffic users reduces by less than the
increase in external accident risk by the extra traffic users, negative marginal external
costs arise. This also explains why negative marginal external costs arise almost exclusively
for vulnerable road users such as motorcyclists, as they have almost fully internalised their
own risk (see Table 11). Please note that the costs presented here are marginal external
accident costs, and that even though they may occasionally turn negative, this does not
mean that marginal accident costs are negative.
Firstly, the human costs are the largest component of the accident costs. These costs are in
turn highly dependent on the VSL that is used. We have conducted a detailed review of the
literature on the VSL and found the range of values is very large. In this Handbook we have
chosen to use the VSL as presented by the (OECD, 2012) as it provides the most recent high
quality evidence on the VSL to our knowledge. Nonetheless it is important to emphasize
that any estimate of the VSL remains uncertain. Use of the OECD VSL implies that the VSL is
significantly higher in this edition of the Handbook than in previous editions (see Annex A
for a full discussion), and, in turn, raises the human cost component of accident costs.
A second important uncertainty regards the percentage of the accident costs that transport
users internalise in their transport decision. For the external part of human costs, we have
made the assumption that one’s own human costs are internalised once the decision to
enter the transport is made, whereas the human costs of people in the other vehicles are
considered completely external. For the other cost components, the chosen methodology
implies that costs that are insured are fully internalised (see discussion in Annex B).
Although there is a discussion in the literature whether insurances can be seen as a way to
internalise costs, data limitations14 imply that other methodologies are not feasible.
The percentage that is internal for medical costs and administrative costs is more
uncertain, due to highly diverging values found in the literature at the country level.
When looking at the magnitude of these costs in comparison to the total external accident
________________________________
14
This is particularly relevant in terms of large differences in the structure of different insurances in different
countries, even within the EU.
Thirdly, one recent study indicated that deducting the consumption loss from the human
costs to avoid double counting with the production loss should no longer be used in the
calculation of external accident costs (Ecoplan, 2016). This is based on another study which
concluded that there are no indications that own consumption is included in the WTP for a
statistical life for Switzerland (B,S,S. Volkswirtschaftliche Beratung AG, 2015). Up until
now, a cautious assumption was made that it was, which implied that net production loss
(= gross production loss – consumption loss) should be used to avoid double counting. This is
also the approach we have taken in this Handbook. Therefore, we have not changed the
method compared to the previous editions of the Handbook. If we were to change the
method, it would imply accident costs would increase by 20% per fatality, although the
accident cost per serious or slight injury would not change. All in all, although we admit the
(B,S,S. Volkswirtschaftliche Beratung AG, 2015) study has its merits, we believe further
research is needed to confirm whether or not one’s own consumption is taken into
consideration when the WTP for a VSL is elicited.
Last but not least the results for road transport are affected by the transport performance
data used. As explained in Section 1.3.4, in this study we use data from Eurostat, following
the nationality principle, i.e. transport activity is allocated to countries where the vehicle
is registered. The use of these data affects the results of this study, since the scope of
these data differs from the scope of the accident data, which is in line with the territorial
principle. Particularly the results for HGVs may be significantly affected at country level.
For example, in countries with a lot of transit traffic (e.g. Austria) a significant part of the
accidents should be allocated to foreign vehicles. By using transport performance data
based on the nationality principle, transport activity of these foreign vehicles is not taken
into account in the calculations.
Air pollution costs are one of the external cost categories that has been analysed the most.
Since the nineties a broad range of international studies and research projects have been
conducted, particularly on European level. In the last few years, there haven’t been many
large international studies covering the entire impact pathway from emission to impact and
costs. However, epidemiological research has carried on, investigating the dose-response-
relationship between the exposure of air pollutants and the associated health risks.
4.3.1 Methodology
Total and average air pollution costs are calculated by a bottom-up approach. Figure 3
illustrates the methodology used.
Total Emissions
- emissions in t (per
pollutant and area type)
Calculations
There are two main types of input values: the emissions and the cost factors per tonne of
pollutants.
For the emissions, there are two different approaches. For the total and average costs, the
emissions are calculated by using average emission factors per vehicle type and country
(e.g. for road transport from the COPERT database). The emission factors applied are on
the same level of differentiation as the transport data used. Total emissions are derived
from the emission factors (tonne of pollutant per vkm) and the transport performance data
(e.g. vkm), leading to a consistent set of emissions, that are in line with the emission
databases (e.g. COPERT) and the official transport statistics from the EU (Eurostat). The
resulting total emissions have been cross checked with the total emission database from the
European Monitoring and Evaluation Program under auspices of the European Environmental
Agency (EMEP/EEA). The overall results are well comparable for the main pollutants (NO x,
PM), although there are some differences (above all for NMVOC), as a result of different
transport data and emission factors from the different sources (COPERT and Eurostat vs.
EMEP/EEA). This difference cannot be avoided under the premise to take COPERT for
emission data and Eurostat for transport data as the main data sources. This issue is,
however, not relevant for any average and marginal cost factors, but only for the total
costs. In the following section, an overview of the main data sources is presented.
The second type of input value are the cost factors per pollutants. The cost factors have
been calculated in detail, based on the NEEDS approach, also taking into account the latest
results from other studies (e.g. (UBA, 2018), (Rabl, et al., 2014), (OECD, 2014)). This has
been done for the EU28 and a limited number of EU Member States in an on-going study by
CE Delft. In the study at hand, this set has been extended to all member States and also for
emissions from other sources. The following section briefly explains the methodology
followed for calculating the cost factors per pollutant.
Both models have been adjusted to the most recent insights. For the present project
especially the first model, the NEEDS model, is relevant. The core of the NEEDS-project is
an Impact-Pathway model (EcoSense) that estimates the relationship between emissions and
eventual impacts (see Figure 4). The Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) has been used in
several international research projects initiated by the European Commission, starting with
the original ExternE study implemented in the mid-1990s. We have adopted this model to
reflect the most recent insights on the relationship between emissions and damage.
The starting point of the quantification of the cost factors is the NEEDS (2008) results, as
they have been published in e.g. Desgauilles et al (2011) and further elaborated in Rabl et
al. (2014). Within the NEEDS model, the impact-pathway approach is followed, in which an
emission — through dispersion — results in an intake (immission) at receptor points.
Figure 4 – The Impact Pathway Approach for calculating air pollut ion costs
Source
(specification of site and technology)
Emission
(e.g. kg/yr of particulates)
Dispersion
(e.g. atmospheric dispersion model)
Increase in concentration at
receptor sites
(e.g.μg/m3 of particulates in all
affected regions)
Dose-response function
(or concentration-response function)
Impact
(e.g. cases of asthma due to ambient
concentration of particulates)
Monetary valuation
Cost
(e.g. cost of asthma)
In total, to recalculate cost factors for air pollutants in the present study, five
‘adjustments’ (i.e. update calculations) were made to the NEEDS results.
These adjustments are broadly the same as in the Environmental Pricing Handbook
(CE Delft, 2018), but they are now applied to the EU context. These five adjustments can
be described as follows:
1. Concentration Response Functions (Step 3 in the figure above) have been adapted to the
WHO (2013) study. The taken steps are described in Annex C.
2. The population size and population structure (age cohorts) is based on the most recent
data from Eurostat.
3. The influence of the background concentration is estimated on the basis of the
relationship between damage and emissions for various emission scenarios from NEEDS
(2008). On this basis, by letting all other factors remain the same, we can estimate the
impact of a change in emissions on the harmfulness of these emissions. This harmfulness
is then the result of the change in the background concentration.
4. The valuation has been adjusted to the most recent insights with respect to valuation.
For human health we refer to Annex A. The change in valuation of ecosystems and
buildings, has been elaborated in more detail in Annex C.
5. Finally, a subdivision was made for both PM2.5 and NO2 to the population density
(people living in cities or in rural areas have different damage from pollution).
For PM2.5 a further distinction was being made to transport emissions and other sources
of emissions. For PM2.5 and NOx specific emission damages from electricity generation
have also been calculated, as this information may be relevant to estimate the damage
costs of electrical vehicles.
Emissions
Table 13 gives an overview on the data sources used for calculating the emissions of air
pollutants for the different transport modes. For all data, 2016 was taken as the reference
year (transport data and emission factors), also for COPERT.
Rail Transport Eurostat, EU Transport in TREMOD (IFEU, 2017) TREMOD (IFEU, 2017)
Figures and TREMOVE
Air Transport airports (survey), Eurostat TREMOD (IFEU, 2017) EEA, EMEP Guidebook;
TREMOD
Cost factors
The following tables summarises the cost factors for air pollution used for calculating the
health and other effects. Table 14 includes the cost factors per country for pollutants
emitted in road, rail and inland waterway transport. Table 15 shows the cost factors for
maritime transport.
Luxembourg has particularly high values compared to other countries. This is primarily due
to the high value of the VOLY. Islands, such as Malta, Cyprus and Ireland, tend to have
lower damage costs than countries in the mainland with comparable levels of income in
purchasing power parities. 15 Bulgaria, Latvia and Estonia tend to have lower damage costs
because of their lower income levels.
Table 14 – Air pollution costs: average damage cost in €/kg emission, national averages for transport emissions in 2016 (excl.
maritime) (All effects: health effects, crop loss, biodiversity loss, material damage)
€2016 /kg NH3 NMVOC SO2 NOx NOx PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM10
transport transport transport transport transport average*
city° rural° metropole° city° rural°
Austria 27.8 2.3 16.2 41.4 24.3 466 151 87 30,9
Belgium 38.2 3.6 17.1 26.1 15.1 479 155 114 47,2
Bulgaria 5.6 0 4.2 10 5.9 191 61 30 5,4
Croatia 17.9 0.9 8 18.5 11.4 292 95 54 12,2
Cyprus 3.8 -0.4 7.8 8.1 4.5 n.a.** 71 17 8,2
________________________________
15
The negative value for NMVOC emissions in Cyprus is related to the fact that NO x is the main precursor of ozone
in Cyprus and that emissions of NMVOC tend to lower the ozone concentrations.
* PM 10 cost factors can be used for the non-exhaust emission of particles PM, e.g. from brake and tyre abrasion.
** Metropole only applies to cities larger than 0.5 million inhabitants. Some countries do not have such cities hence these
damage values are hence not being reported. This is the case for Slovenia, Malta, Luxembourg, Estonia and Cyprus.
° Rural area: outside cities; metropolitan area: cities/agglomeration with more than 0.5 million inhabitants.
Table 15 – Air pollution costs: average damage cost in €/kg emission, national averages for maritime emissions
in 2016 (all effects: health effects, crop loss, biodiversity loss, material damage)
* Total costs without highspeed passenger trains (average costs for passenger train electric: incl. high speed
trains).
Table 17 – Total and average air pollution costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports
Table 18 presents rough estimates for the average external air pollution costs of maritime
transport. These data are only available for freight. The average cost have been based on
the cost for reference cases presented in Section 4.4 and data on the number of port calls
for the selected ports from Eurostat. The total air pollution cost has been based on the
average cost and the number of tkms provided by DG MOVE16. The available data does not
allow an estimate of costs at the individual port level.
Table 18 – Rough estimates for total and average external air pollution costs for maritime transport for 34
selected EU ports
The costs for road vehicles are presented for all differentiations provided by COPERT, e.g.
different fuel types, engines or vehicle sizes, emission classes and regional areas. It needs
to be emphasized that for a modern car (after Euro 1), engine size is not a cost driver for
the air pollution costs of cars. Therefore, these costs are identical for the various engine
size classes. Any differences are the result of rounding numbers from the COPERT data.
Table 19 on marginal air pollution costs for road transport shows the costs per pkm or tkm
(except for LCV, where costs per vkm are presented due to the fact that LCV have
characteristics of freight and passenger transport). The costs per vkm for the different
vehicle categories of road transport are available in the background Excel file.
Table 19 – Marginal air pollution costs road transport for selected cases
________________________________
16 Some assumptions had to be made for calculating maritime transport performance. The Eurostat transport
volumes (i.e. tonnes) and distance matrices have been used for this purpose. By assumption, 50% of the
calculated transport performance is allocated to the origin country and 50% to the destination country
between EU Countries and EFTA and candidate countries. For the international extra-EU activity, where the
corresponding partner is outside EU28 and is not an EFTA or candidate country, 100% of transport performance is
allocated to the declaring EU MS country. These assumptions are used only for this study purposes and shall be
considered as estimates and not as official data.
Passenger Petrol Mini Euro 4 0.05 0.12 0.06 0.04 0.10 0.02 0.03
Cars
< 0.8 l Euro 5 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.02
Diesel Mini Euro 4 1.65 1.70 1.21 1.20 1.17 0.73 0.49
< 0.8 l Euro 5 0.92 1.04 0.74 0.90 0.99 0.56 0.44
Petrol Mini n.a. 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.06
Hybrid
(PHEV) Small n.a. 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.06
LPG Small Euro 1 0.55 0.65 0.47 0.52 0.60 0.34 0.28
Bifuel
Euro 2 0.27 0.31 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.17 0.14
CNG Small Euro 4 0.12 0.17 0.11 0.10 0.15 0.09 0.08
Bifuel
Euro 5 0.11 0.14 0.10 0.09 0.12 0.08 0.07
Electric n.a. n.a. 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
(BEV)
Moped Petrol 2-stroke Euro 0 7.46 7.45 7.45 3.13 3.13 2.20 2.19
< 50 cm³
Euro 1 2.41 2.40 2.40 1.30 1.29 0.92 0.92
Motorcycle Petrol 2-stroke Euro 0 8.49 8.44 8.13 3.57 3.53 2.53 2.18
≥ 50 cm³
Euro 1 3.52 3.34 3.29 1.56 1.38 1.10 0.88
Urban buses Diesel Midi <=15 t Euro 0 2.28 4.75 2.46 1.51 2.79 0.89 0.95
Diesel Standard Euro 0 2.11 4.40 2.35 1.59 3.00 0.94 1.04
15-18 t
Euro I 1.30 2.53 1.43 0.96 1.80 0.57 0.63
Diesel Articulated Euro 0 2.19 4.54 2.51 1.64 3.12 0.97 1.10
> 18 t
Euro I 1.37 2.64 1.52 1.00 1.88 0.59 0.67
CNG CNG buses Euro I 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.10 2.10 1.24 1.24
Bio- Biodiesel Euro 0 2.10 4.36 2.34 1.58 2.97 0.93 1.02
diesel buses
Euro I 1.29 2.49 1.42 0.95 1.76 0.56 0.62
Electric Small n.a. 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.02
Coaches Diesel Standard Euro 0 1.77 3.99 2.02 1.35 2.77 0.80 0.88
<=18 t
Euro I 1.34 3.19 1.56 1.02 2.21 0.60 0.68
Diesel Articulated Euro 0 1.42 3.22 1.62 1.07 2.26 0.63 0.71
> 18 t
Euro I 1.04 2.51 1.23 0.79 1.77 0.47 0.54
Light Petrol Euro 0 8.31 5.84 7.05 8.26 5.75 4.96 4.20
Commercial
Vehicle Euro 1 1.32 1.20 1.02 1.27 1.12 0.80 0.61
HGV Diesel Euro 0 22.05 30.29 21.88 15.44 18.35 9.19 8.71
* EEV: Enhanced environmentally friendly vehicle. European emission standard for the definition of a ‘clean
vehicle’ > 3.5 t. Emission level between Euro V and Euro VI.
Table 20 - Marginal air pollution costs rail transport for selected cases
Train type Traction Emission class Metropolitan area Urban area Rural area
1) There is no literature on the differences between high-speed trains and ‘normal’ intercity trains in terms of PM non-exhaust
emissions. Most of the PM-emissions are caused by braking. Newer brake pads cause much less PM non-exhaust emissions
than old cast iron brake pads. High-speed trains have probably newer brake pads. Tough high-speed trains are heavier and
drive faster, they brake less because of the less winding tracks. It is not known how PM non-exhaust emissions from high-
speed trains behave compared to Intercity-trains. That’s why these are here equated with ‘normal’ Intercity trains.
Vessel type Type of cargo Emission class Urban area Rural area
Vessel type Distance at sea Tier € per port call €-cent per € per vessel-km
(km) pkm or tkm
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Type of flight Distance Emission Example of aircraft € per LTO* €-cent per pkm* € per pax*
class type
[km]
* For the cost factors for air pollution costs the emissions during the LTO cycle are mainly relevant, as the cruise
emissions almost lead to no damage costs.
The marginal costs of aviation for selected cases and aircrafts cannot be directly compared
with the average costs: The marginal costs refer to very specific aircraft types, distances
and loading factors that do not match the average. E.g. for short haul flights, the average
number of passenger per flight is substantially higher than for the selected cases (since
many short haul flights are done by larger aircraft). Additionally, the average distances are
different than the one use in the selected cases.
For the present Handbook, the most important parameters for the robustness of the results
are the quality of the emission factors and the cost factors for the different air pollutants
(damage costs per air pollutant), which are listed hereafter.
Emission factors
— For road transport, the COPERT database is the main input, which is a widely used
source and considered a reliable data source. However, it is not clear to what extent
the emissions data used fully reflect the latest findings on real world emissions, e.g.
due to degradation and/or failure of particulate filters and catalysts in older vehicles.
— For other modes, the emission factors are from different sources, mainly from TREMOD
(from the German Umweltbundesamt) and EcoTransitWorld. Both data bases are of high
In Section 5.2 we first briefly discuss the definition and scope of climate change costs.
The total and average climate change costs are explored in Section 5.3, and the marginal
climate change costs are the topic of Section 5.4. Finally, the robustness of the climate
change cost figures presented in this chapter is analysed in Section 0. More detailed
information on the effects of climate change and their monetary valuation can be found in
Annex D.
The climate change costs are calculated for all five transport modes. For road, (diesel-
powered) rail, inland waterway and maritime transport, the global warming impacts of
transport are mainly caused by CO2, N2O and CH 4. This chapter focusses on how to calculate
the total, average and marginal costs of climate change for these transport modes.
However, for aviation there are also other aircraft emissions such as water vapour,
sulphate and soot aerosols which are harmful to the climate when emitted at high altitudes.
We slightly adapt the methodology used for other transport modes to make it suitable to
calculate the climate change costs from aviation (see the textbox in Section 5.3.1).
For maritime, it is important to note that a number of exhaust emissions (e.g. NO x and SO2)
lead to (short-term) cooling effects, which implies that maritime transport currently has a
net cooling effect on the global climate (Eyring, et al., 2009). Although it is complicated to
compare the local, short-term cooling effects to the long term global warming effects,
global warming potentials help this comparison (see textbox in Section 5.3.1).
5.3.1 Methodology
Total and average climate costs are calculated using a bottom-up approach. Figure 5
illustrates the corresponding methodology for road, rail, inland waterway, aviation and
maritime transport. The methodology presented in this section is identical to the
methodology used in both earlier editions of the Handbook for all transport modes.
Three input values are used: the GHG emission factors per vehicle type, vehicle
performance data and the climate change costs per tonne of CO 2 equivalent. The GHG
emissions per vehicle type can be calculated by multiplying the vehicle kilometres per
vehicle type in each country with the vehicle emission factors (in g/km) for each of the
various GHG (CO 2, N2O, CH 4 and other aircraft emissions). Using Global Warming Potentials
(GWP), the emissions of the three GHGs can be added together to achieve the total CO 2
equivalent GHG emissions (see Textbox). This is then multiplied by the climate change costs
per tonne CO2 equivalent in order to reach the total climate change costs per mode.
To reach the average climate change costs we divide the total climate change costs by the
amount of pkms or tkms driven by the vehicle type.
As these different emission gases differ in their lifetime and their potency it can be complicated to compare
CO2 emissions to non-CO2 emissions. To allow for such comparisons, the concept of th e Global Warming
Potential (GWP) is used. The GWP is a relative measure, which compares the amount of heat trapped by a
certain mass of gas to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of CO 2 over a certain period of time
(e.g. 100 years). The GWP of CO 2 is standardised to 1. In the IPCC’s latest Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013) the
GWP over a 100-year time period of CH 4 and N20 are 34 and 298 respectively. This implies that the same
amount of CH 4 is 34 times more potent than the same amount of CO 2, when looking at a period of 100 years.
These factors will be used to compare CO 2 emissions with N2O and CH 4 emissions for road, rail, inland
waterways and maritime transport in this Handbook.
To account for the emissions from aviation, GWPs are used as Emission Weighting Factors (Foster, et al.,
2007). Studies shown that the EWF for aviation lies in the range of 1.3-1.4 (Lee, et al., 2009) (Azar &
Johansson, 2012). This implies that the total climate change impact from aviation is 1.3-1.4 times larger than
the impact from its CO 2 emissions alone. It is important to note that these estimates do not include the imp acts
of aviation induced cloudiness. If aviation induced cirrus is included, the uncertainty regarding EWF increases
substantially, with values ranging from 1.3 to 2.9 (with ‘best estimates’ of 1.7-2.0) (Lee, et al., 2009) (Azar &
Johansson, 2012).
An alternative methodology to determine the climate change impact from aviation uses the Radiative Forcing
Index. This index represents the ratio between the total radiative forcing from aviation at some given time to
the radiative forcing from aviation emissions of CO 2 at the same time (Forster, et al., 2006). Studies have
suggested that the RFI lies between 2 and 4, indicating that the total climate impact of aviation at a certain
point is 2-4 times larger than the impact of its CO 2 emissions alone (IPCC, 1999; Sausen, et al., 2005).
However, one of the major weaknesses of the RFI is that it does not take into account the variation in the
lifetime of different emissions. This variation is substantial, lifetimes range from just a few hours (contrails) to
10 years (aircraft induced methane reduction and its associated effects on ozone) and even up to 200 years
(CO 2). Not taking into account these differences in lifetime, and simply multiplying the current amount of
CO2 emissions from aviation by a factor 2-4, would overestimate the long-term climate impact of aviation.
In this Handbook we use emission weighting factors to value the climate change impacts of aviation, as this
methodology accounts for the differing lifetime of emissions, whereas the radiative forcing index does not.
Although we acknowledge that the uncertainties for the emission weighting factors are somewhat larger when
aviation-induced cirrus is included, we believe this is an important effect to take into account. Therefore, we
will use a factor of 2 in this study to estimate the non-CO2 climate impacts of high altitude emissions from
aviation. This implies that the total CO 2 emissions from an aircraft are multiplied by a factor 2 to reach the
total CO 2 equivalent emissions. This is the same value that was used in previous editions of the Handbook
(Infras, CE Delft, ISI & University of Gdansk, 2008; Ricardo-AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014) and in (HEATCO,
2006).
________________________________
17
COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION (EU) No 749/2014 of 30 June 2014 on structure, format, submission
processes and review of information reported by Member States pursuant to Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the
European Parliament and of the Council, Recital (2) https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=
CELEX:32014R0749&from=EN
Table 25 - Total and average climate change costs for land-based modes for the EU28
Table 26 – Total and average climate costs for aviation for selected 33 EU airports
Table 27 presents rough estimates for the average and total external climate change costs
of maritime transport. These data are only available for freight. The average cost has been
based on the cost for reference cases presented in Section 5.4 and data on the number of
port calls for the selected ports from Eurostat. The total climate change cost has been
based on the average cost and the number of tkms provided by DG MOVE18. The available
data does not allow an estimate of costs at the individual port level.
Table 27 – Rough estimates for total and average external climate change costs for maritime transport for 34
selected EU ports
The average climate costs for different modes and within the modes for different vehicle
types, are calculated by multiplying the emission factors (in gram CO 2 equivalent per unit)
with the avoidance costs of CO2. These emission factors are deriven from the following
sources:
— road transport: COPERT database;
— rail transport: TREMOD database;
— inland waterways: EcoTransit World database;
— aviation: TREMOD database.
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18
See footnote 16.
The size classes for trucks from COPERT do not match with those for the Eurostat transport
performance data used for this Handbook. The load factors for trucks have therefore been
based on an interpolation of the Eurostat data.
Annex J contains the marginal climate cost data for road vehicles for reference cases that
are defined in terms of the combination of fuel type and fuel efficiency of the vehicle
(which are the main cost drivers for climate cost).
Table 28 on marginal climate change costs for road transport shows the costs per pkm or
tkm (except for LCV, where costs per vkm are presented due to the fact that LCV have
characteristics of freight and passenger transport). The costs per vkm for the different
vehicle categories of road transport are available in the background Excel file.
Table 28 - Marginal climate change costs road transport for selected cases
Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
LNG Articulated
32+ n.a. 0.21 0.36 0.23
Table 29 – Marginal climate change costs rail transport for selected cases
€-cent/tkm
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Climate change costs for electric trains are zero. Emissions occur only during electricity
generation, which is covered in Chapter 8 including the cost of well-to-tank emissions.
Table 31 – Marginal climate change costs maritime transport for selected cases
Vessel type Distance at sea € per port call €-cent per € per
(km) pkm or tkm vessel-km
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Type of flight Distance Emission Example of aircraft type €-cent per pkm € per pax
class
(km)
The marginal costs of aviation for selected cases and aircrafts cannot be directly compared
with the average costs: The marginal costs refer to very specific aircraft types, distances
and loading factors that do not match the average. E.g. for short haul flights, the average
number of passenger per flight is substantially higher than for the selected cases (since
many short haul flights are done by larger aircraft). Additionally, the average distances are
different than the one use in the selected cases.
Firstly, we have used avoidance costs, rather than damage costs, to monetise the costs of
climate change. Our literature review confirmed that, the use of avoidance costs is a
superior method to the use of damage costs (see full discussion in Section D.3).
However, uncertainties will always remain. We have attempted to take away some of that
uncertainty by providing high and low case climate change costs, which can be used as a
sensitivity analysis.
Unit
The basic measurement index for noise is the decibel (dB). It is indexed logarithmically, reflecting the
logarithmic manner in which the human ear responds to sound pressure. Within the human range of hearing,
deep and very high tones at the same sound intensity are experienced as less noisy. To correct for this
sensitivity, a frequency weighting is applied to measurements and calculations. The most common frequency
weighting is the ‘A weighting’, dB(A).
The logarithmic nature of noise is also reflected in the relationship between noise and traffic volume. Halving or
doubling the amount of traffic results in a change of 3 dB, irrespective of the cu rrent flow. Thus an increase in
traffic volume from 50 to 100 vehicles results in the same increase in noise level as doubling transport volume
from 500 to 1,000 vehicles.
An important aspect is the time of day at which the noise takes place. In this stu dy we employ the measure Lday,
(Lden), the current legal measure for traffic noise. Lden is a weighted average of the total noise during
evening, night
day, evening and night times. One fundamental feature of Lden is that it assumes that evening- and night-time
noise is more of a nuisance than day-time noise19.
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19
Evening noise is given a penalty of 5 dB(A). Night-time noise is given a 10 dB(A) penalty.
Numerous studies have proposed the concept of a rail bonus, the notion that noise as a
result of rail transport is experienced as less of a nuisance than road noise. It gives rail
transport a 5 dB ‘discount’ in comparison to road noise and was widely used in noise
directives. In contrast to previous editions of the Handbook we don’t incorporate the rail
bonus in this edition of the Handbook. This is based on an extensive literature review,
which suggests that recent literature cannot support the upholding of the rail bonus
(see Annex E.4).
Effects of noise
The exposure to noise results in a number of health endpoints due to prolonged and
frequent exposure to transport noise. These health endpoints can take a multitude of
forms. Health endpoints for which significant evidence is available are ((WHO, 2011; (WHO,
2017-2018); (Defra, 2014)):
— ischaemic heart disease;
— stroke;
— dementia;
— hypertension;
— annoyance.
Grouping annoyance under the health endpoints of noise exposure is consistent with the
WHO definition of health as “a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and
not merely the absence of disease or infirmity” (WHO, 1946). Annoyance represents the
disturbance individuals experience when they are exposed to traffic noise. It can hinder
people in performing certain activities, which may lead to a variety of negative responses,
including irritation, disappointment, anxiety, exhaustion and sleep disturbance (WHO,
2011). However, annoyance is measured in a different way to the other ‘more classical’
health impacts, and therefore we have made the somewhat arbitrary distinction to look at
annoyance separately from the other health impacts. This was decided because the
valuation of annoyance applied is very different from the valuation of the other health
endpoints.
The cost components are closely linked. For instance, sleep disturbance is classified as a
health endpoint according to (Defra, 2014), although there is likely to be significant overlap
with annoyance. These two impacts are difficult to separate. In WTP studies looking at
noise it is complicated to separate individual’s valuation for annoyance from sleep
disturbance. If one is asked about their annoyance they are inclined to also take into
account the effects of sleep disturbance. Therefore, there is an implicit risk of double
counting the valuation if both sleep disturbance and annoyance impacts are explicitly taken
into account. To avoid double counting we employ the conservative assumption that we
include both the annoyance and health costs of noise, but exclude sleep disturbance from
6.3.1 Methodology
Total and average noise costs are calculated using a bottom-up approach. Figure 6
illustrates the corresponding methodology.
There are two types of input value: the number of people exposed to noise for each
transport mode, and the noise costs per person exposed. The noise classes that people are
exposed to are classified in bins, e.g. of 5 dB(A). For each noise class and transport mode,
the total number of people exposed has to be calculated. The other input value, the noise
costs per person exposed, consists of two values, an annoyance value and a health value.
The annoyance value is calculated using a WTP approach, where respondents are asked how
much they are willing to pay for changes in the noise level. The health value is based on an
environmental burden of disease method and are taken from (Defra, 2014). Summing the
health value and the annoyance value results in the total noise costs per person exposed.
These costs per person are multiplied with the number of people exposed to the
corresponding noise level. Summing these costs together gives the total external noise costs
for a transport mode (road, rail or aviation). The total costs are allocated to specific
vehicle categories (e.g. passenger cars, motorcycles, busses) based on weighting factors
based on (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011; CE Delft & VU, 2014; VROM, 2006) in
order to estimate the total costs per vehicle category. Finally, average noise costs are
estimated by dividing the total costs by total transport performance (e.g. pkm, tkm, etc.).
People exposed
In order to calculate total and average noise costs for a country, the number of people
exposed to a certain noise level (in bins of 5 dB(A)) originating from a certain transport
mode is needed. This data is preferably based on national data (empirical data or specific
national model calculations). A second-best option (applied in this study to estimate total
and average noise costs for European countries) is to make use of EU-wide data that is
available from the noise maps from the EEA. Directive 2002/49/EC (EC, 2002) requires
Member States to provide data on the number of people exposed to road, rail or aviation
noise in their countries to the European Commission. This data is highly useful, although
there are also data gaps. For instance, not all data has been reported and not all cities and
urban regions are included in the scope of the noise directive. Therefore, we have carried
out corrections in order to make the data more complete. For details on the corrections,
we refer to Annex E.
Environmental prices
The environmental price of noise reflects the welfare loss that occurs with one extra
decibel of noise (CE Delft, 2018). The environmental price of noise needs to be determined
implicitly, as there is no market for noise prevention. Previous editions of the Handbook
have recommended using environmental prices based on HEATCO (2006), both for
annoyance and health endpoints. HEATCO assumes a constant valuation per dB of noise
for annoyance costs, which has recently been disputed. This Handbook therefore uses
increasing prices per dB based on the most recent insights provided by (Bristow, et al.,
2015) for annoyance costs. As for health costs, the prices according to (Defra, 2014) match
the WHO’s recommendations in their latest systematic reviews, and are therefore used in
this Handbook. For a more detailed discussion on the evidence for the environmental prices
of noise we refer to Annex E.
Table 33 – Environmental price of traffic noise for the EU28 (€ 2016 /dB/person/year)
Road
Rail
Passenger train 1
Table 36 illustrates the average costs of both passenger and freight aviation. Passenger
aviation values are provided per LTO, passenger and pkm. The average costs of freight
aviation are provided per LTO, tonne and tkm. Costs at the airport level are provided in the
annex/database.
Table 36 – Total and average noise costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports
6.4.1 Methodology
Marginal noise costs differ from average noise costs for several reasons, butmainly because
local factors influence the noise level and the damage and annoyance level. There are three
main cost drivers for marginal noise costs:
— Population density: The population density close to the noise source is relevant for the
number of people exposed to the noise. The closer to an emission source people live,
the more nuisance will occur, and the higher the marginal costs will be. In the following
section we roughly distinguish between three area types (urban, suburban, rural),
representing different population densities. In general, the population density will be
highest in urban (metropolitan) areas and lowest in rural areas.
— Existing noise levels (depending on traffic volume, traffic mix and speed): If there is an
additional vehicle on an already busy urban road, the additional (marginal) noise costs
are small compared to a comparable situation along a rural road with little traffic.
The higher the existing background noise level, the lower the marginal costs of an
additional vehicle. As a proxy for the existing noise levels, three different area types
(urban, suburban, and rural) and two different traffic situations (thin or dense traffic)
are distinguished.
— Time of the day: Epidemiological studies show that the noise induced health effects
during the night are higher than during the day as a consequence of sleep disturbance.
Therefore, noise disturbances at night will lead to higher marginal costs than during the
day. In the following section, marginal noise costs are differentiated for night and day.
For road and rail transport the marginal noise costs are estimated based on the earlier
calculations of marginal costs in CE/INFRAS/ISI (2011) and INFRAS/IWW (2004). For deriving
up-to-date marginal noise costs based on the aforementioned marginal noise cost studies,
the development of the average noise costs per transport mode and vehicle type over time,
i.e. between the two older studies and the average noise costs calculated in the present
Handbook (see Section 6.3.3), has been taken into account.
Marginal noise costs for aviation depend heavily on local factors (e.g. population
density around airports), flight path, aircraft type and technology, and time of the day.
Additionally, the noise level of one single flight movement is much higher than the average
noise level. Therefore, it is very difficult to present an accurate (range of) marginal noise
cost values that could be applied for all situations. Some earlier studies estimate the
marginal noise costs of aviation (i.e. the cost per movement or per pax) to be around
30-60% of the average noise costs (per movement) for different transport situations or
aircraft types. This means those studies state that the marginal costs of an additional flight
movement are around a factor of 0.3 to 0.6 of the average noise costs (i.e. significantly
lower than the average costs). Additionally, there are different studies expressing directly
marginal noise costs for specific aircraft types, mainly based on a hedonic pricing approach
(e.g. (Pearce & B.Pearce, 2000) (CE Delft, 2003), (TRL, 2001). In the next chapter, marginal
noise costs are shown for both approaches.
Table 37 on marginal noise costs for road transport shows the costs per pkm or tkm (except
for LCV, where costs per vkm are presented due to the fact that LCV have characteristics of
Table 37 – Marginal noise costs road transport – in €-cent (2016) per pkm, tkm or vkm (data for 2016)
There are no studies available that give more differentiated data for marginal rail noise
costs (e.g. per train type or train length).
For marginal noise costs there is a number of studies that directly show the costs per
aircraft type. However, the corresponding studies are all at least 5-10 years old. Still, they
can be regarded as a good and sound basis for marginal costs of aircraft noise.
Table 39 – Marginal noise costs for aviation: data for different aircraft types
A 310 54
A 340 122
B 737-400 54
B 747-400 266
B 757 70
B 767-300 85
B 777 52
MD82 78
Alternatively, the marginal noise costs can be derived from the average costs, based on the
methodology of UIC (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011) assuming that the marginal
noise costs per movement (or per pkm or pax) are around 30 to 60% of the average noise
costs. Based on the results of the average noise costs of aviation (see Section 6.3 above),
this leads to the following range of marginal costs. The resulting costs per LTO are between
77 and 154 €2016, whereas in the table above the range is between 52 and 266 € 2016 (for most
between 52 and 122 € 2016). One reason for the slightly higher costs per LTO in the table
100 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
below might be the fact that it includes all relevant effects, health costs and annoyance
costs, whereas the data above are based on hedonic pricing studies, which do not cover the
health costs.
Table 40 – Marginal noise costs for aviation, estimations based on average costs (data for 2016)
Firstly, as there are regions for which data is missing in those maps, or regions that have no
reporting obligation, corrections have been carried out to take into account these aspects.
These corrections are more extensive than any other corrections that were carried out in
earlier editions of the Handbook. A full description of the corrections that have been
carried out can be found in Section E.2. Ideally, the noise maps would be complete for all
countries and all regions. However, given the current data situation, this is unfeasible.
Carrying out corrections to the data, as we have done in this Handbook, is likely to improve
the robustness of results compared to the situation with no corrections. Having a complete
EEA noise map is likely to further improve the robustness of the results.
Secondly, the latest noise maps are those for the year 2012, with data submitted up until
31/03/2017. It is possible that a substantial change in noise exposure has taken place
between 2012 and 2016. As the magnitude and direction of this change is unclear, working
with the 2012 noise maps is the best we can currently do. The robustness of results could be
significantly improved if more current noise maps were available.
Thirdly, the results for road transport are affected by the transport performance data used.
As explained in Section 1.3.4, in this study we use data from Eurostat, following the
nationality principle, i.e. transport activity is allocated to countries where the vehicle is
registered . The use of these data affects the results of this study, since the scope of these
data differs from the scope of the noie maps, which is in line with the territorial principle.
Particularly the results for HGVs may be significantly affected at country level. For
example, in countries with a lot of transit traffic (e.g. Austria) a significant part of the
noise costs should be allocated to foreign vehicles. By using transport performance data
based on the nationality principle, transport activity of these foreign vehicles is not taken
into account in the calculations.
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Furthermore, the results for motorcycles should be interpreted with caution. This is
because they are highly influenced by the transport performance data we have collected for
motorcycles. Some national values show extremely high vehicle kilometres travelled by
motorcycles, e.g. Italy and Spain, which raises the question if these values might include
kilometres driven by mopeds too. Furthermore, almost half of the vehicle kilometres driven
by motorcycles at the EU28 level are driven on urban roads, where the noise weighting
factor for motorcycles is 13.2 times higher than the noise weighting factor for passenger
cars. This also significantly influences the noise costs for motorcycles.
In addition, it is important to note that the WHO recently presented new exposure response
functions. Unfortunately, within the scope of this project we could not fully develop new
cost factors based on new exposure response functions. Therefore we use the closest ready-
to-use values from the literature that best match the most recent WHO systematic reviews
2017-2018.20 Translating exposure-response functions to a valuation per dB unfortunately
fell outside of the scope of this study. However, we recommend that a future, more in
depth study into noise costs could attempt to translate the latest WHO exposure-response
values into a valuation per dB.
In addition, the noise maps only start measuring at 55 dB, with the first bin representing
55-59 dB. It is likely that the costs presented here are a lower bound estimate if a lower
bin of 50-54 dB would be included. This is because it is likely that a large group of the
population is exposed to noise within that noise bin.
An issue which builds on this is the fact that the EEA noise maps measure the number of
people exposed to certain levels of road, rail and aviation noise. It is possible that a share
of the people that are exposed to one type of noise (e.g. noise from road traffic), may also
be exposed to other types of noise (e.g. aviation). Whether there are groups of people that
are exposed to more than one noise source is currently unclear. What is further unclear is
whether or not the valuations for noise are still valid when there are multiple sources at
work. In this study we have implicitly assumed that people are only exposed to one source
of noise. However, if future studies reveal that a percentage of people are exposed to more
than one noise source, further research should be conducted on whether or not the
valuations for the different noise sources can simply be added together.
As for specific country values, the following are worth noting. For Greece, the number of
people exposed to road noise are not included in the noise maps. Therefore, EU28 average
values were used as a proxy for average noise costs in Greece. To calculate the total noise
costs, the average values were multiplied with the transport performance data for Greece.
Although this is unlikely to significantly affect the EU28 noise costs, it is an important note
of caution to keep in mind when looking at the specific Greek situation. More research
could be conducted to achieve road noise exposure data for Greece.
For aviation there was noise exposure data missing for Zagreb Plesno Airport and Ljubljana
Brink Airport. To calculate the noise costs for these airports, an average of eastern
European airports (Prague, Budapest, Warsaw, Bucharest, Riga, Sofia, Vilnius, Tallinn and
Bratislava) was first calculated. This was preferred to a selected EU airport average as
there are some airports (e.g. Heathrow and Luxembourg) that have notoriously high noise
costs, significantly affecting the average. The eastern European average noise cost was then
multiplied with the transport performance data on aviation to calculate the total noise
costs for the airports in Zagreb and Ljubljana.
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20
Please note that this is also the approach used for other cost categories.
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7 Congestion costs
7.1 Introduction
Congestion is defined as a condition where vehicles are delayed when travelling.
In particular, a congestion cost arises when an additional vehicle reduces the speed of the
other vehicles of the flow and hence increases their travel time. Road congestion cost can
be defined on the basis of a speed-flow relationship in a given context21, for example at an
urban or inter-urban level. This approach cannot be expanded to other transport modes,
like rail and air, as they essentially provide scheduled services and are planned on the basis
of the allocative capacity of networks and nodes.
It is worth remarking that the road congestion costs presented in the following sections are
outputs of a model designed to estimate the overall magnitude of this externality at EU-
wide level and from which we derive representative average and marginal cost figures at
national level. Because of the high-level scale of analysis of the model used to carry out the
estimations (which for example does not incorporate network effects due to the application
of pricing policies), it is recommended to develop specific models for context-specific
evaluations.
This chapter has been organised as follows. In Section 7.2 we first briefly discuss the
definition and scope of congestion costs with respect to road and other transport modes.
The total and average road congestion costs are presented in Section 7.3 and the social
marginal congestion cost is the topic of Section 7.4. The robustness of the road congestion
cost figures presented in this chapter is analysed in Section 7.4.4. More detailed
information on road congestion costs can be found in Annex F.
It is important to note that road congestion can also have impacts on other externalities.
For instance, a variation of the level road of congestion implies a variation of the emissions
of pollutants (local and global) and road accidents, and therefore of their external costs.
These costs are handled where possible in the other chapters of the Handbook.
As far as the other transport modes are concerned, the approach to estimate the external
costs needs to be different because for scheduled services the congestion cost should, in
principle, not be an issue until a perturbation occurs and propagates through the system.
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21
Road congestion can be defined also on the basis of a bottleneck model, but it cannot be generalised as the
free-flow model to produce countrywide and Europe-wide results.
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7.2.1 Road congestion costs
With respect to the road mode, the relationship between speed and flow is to be
interpreted as follows. Until the flow is significantly lower than the capacity of a link,
the vehicles can travel at free-flow speed. As the flow increases, the speed gradually
decreases.
The average travel cost borne by the road users is based on the product of the value of
time, which can be assumed constant across road users, and the average travel time.
Basically, there are two approaches to estimate road congestion costs, namely the delay
cost and the deadweight loss.
In Figure 7, the cost of travel is equal to 𝑝 0 until the free-flow condition holds. When the
flow increases, the speed reduces, the travel time increases, and consequently the average
travel cost borne by the road users increases according to the shape of the private cost
function𝐴𝐶(𝑞), until it intersects the demand curve of usage of the road link𝐷(𝑞) .
SMC(q)
D(q) C
DWL
B AC(q)
p2
A
p1 D
F
p0 E
O q0 q2 q1 q [vehicles/hour]
The delay cost approach defines the road congestion cost as the value of the travel time
lost relative to a free-flow situation. In Figure 7, the delay cost coincides with the rectangle
𝑝 0𝐸𝐴𝑝1.
The function 𝑆𝑀𝐶(𝑞) represents the social marginal cost function, which is equal to the
average travel cost borne by the road users 𝐴𝐶(𝑞) plus the cost of the additional travel
time, generated by the marginal vehicle that reduces the speed of all the other vehicles.
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The deadweight loss approach enables to determine the economically optimal solution
(i.e., the point 𝐵 where the demand function and the social marginal cost function
intersect). According to this approach, the external cost of congestion is given by the
demand in excess with respect to 𝑞2 and the triangle 𝐴𝐵𝐶 is the so-called ‘deadweight loss’
(i.e., DWL). The road congestion cost defined in this manner is regarded as a proper basis
for transport pricing. At the same time, the delay cost reflects the total congestion cost, in
a way which is (partly) comparabale to the total external cost for the other cost
categories22. For this reason both approaches are applied and presented in this Handbook .
For a more detailed discussion on the theoretical background of road congestion we refer to
Annex F.
The calculations of delay cost and deadweight loss enables us to estimate the total external
road congestion costs of the contexts considered23. The average cost can be obtained
dividing the total cost estimated by the vkm of that context. The marginal cost is given by
the cost due to the additional vehicle that enters the flow and coincides with the segment
𝐴𝐶 in Figure 7.
— A ‘congestion cost’ arises when one scheduled service delays another. Although the
timetables will be designed to prevent this from happening, it could be the case that at
high levels of utilisation, the presence of an additional scheduled service may lead to an
additional delay to others (i.e., ‘reactionary delay’).
— A ‘scarcity cost’ arises where the presence of a scheduled service prevents another
scheduled service from operating, or requires it to take an inferior slot. Therefore,
scarcity costs are incurred whenever a slot is reserved. In essence, scarcity costs denote
the opportunity cost to service providers for the non-availability of desired departure or
arrival times.
It is worth observing that this kind of analysis needs a large amount of information
(e.g., traffic density, mix of scheduled trains, reliability rate and average delay, etc.),
as well as complex elaborations. The necessary estimations are highly context-specific
and therefore very sensitive for traffic situations. This is an aspect that deserves due
consideration, as it significantly limits the opportunities for generalising estimations 24.
________________________________
22 The delay costs include both internal (costs borne by the same transport user who cause them) and external
delay costs. This should be considered when comparing the delay costs with the total/average costs of other
externalities.
23 It is worth reminding that the DWL implies a different approach with respect to the delay cost and the
methodology to estimate the other external costs. This depends on the nature of road congestion, as the cost
of congestion depends on marginal vehicle that enters the traffic and this situation can be represented only by
the DWL approach.
24
As an example, for 2018, preliminary results by EUROCONTROL estimates a total costs for delays in the ECAC
countries at 14.5 billion €. Such costs are caused not only by air traffic control staff shortages and capacity
issues but are also due to strikes, bad weather and technical problems.
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7.3 Total and average road congestion costs
The total yearly road congestion costs per country can be calculated for both delay cost and
deadweight loss approaches developing a bottom-up approach and building on the values of
delay cost per vkm and deadweight loss per vkm estimated for representative types of
circumstances on a congested network. These representative circumstances reflect
different road types (i.e., urban roads, urban trunk roads, inter-urban roads and
motorways) and different levels of capacity occupancy (i.e., near capacity, congested and
over capacity). The values obtained have to be combined with additional input values
related to real traffic data as well as transport modelling and statistics on mobility in order
to estimate total road congestion costs.
In the following paragraph the methodology for the calculation of total and average road
congestion costs is explained, including the input and output values.
7.3.1 Methodology
The estimation of total road congestion costs, according to delay cost and deadweight loss
approaches, needs to be distinguished with respect to urban and inter-urban contexts.
The main reason is that the available information regarding the observed delay generated
by traffic is of a different nature. For the urban context, the available information consists
of congestion indexes and amounts of time losses for a sample of cities. For the inter-urban
context, the available information consists of the amount of delay for a large number of
spots localised on the European road network.
Building on the information above, the amount of congested network by road type and time
period can be estimated. Then, this information can be used together with the values of
deadweight loss per vkm and delay cost per vkm (differentiated by time period and road
type) to estimate the congestion cost per vehicle. Finally, in order to expand the result to
the whole city on a yearly basis, total yearly costs in each urban context can be estimated
by using the population size, the share of individuals travelling and the car share, assuming
230 work days per year25.
Based on these results, the costs estimated on the sample of cities can be applied country
by country (e.g., to the cities with at least 50,000 inhabitants) 26.
Figure 8 illustrates the methodology for estimating urban congestion costs.
________________________________
25 The set of costs obtained for an available sample of cities at country level can also be used for statistical
analyses aimed at identifying correlations between the congestion cost (e.g., cost per capita) and some known
features of the cities such as population size.
26
A simplified approach could be adopted to generalise urban congestion costs also to cities below the assumed
threshold, taking into account the population in the NUTS3 zone and the typology of NUTS3 according of the
classification urban/mixed/rural.
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The estimation of average car congestion cost per vkm (pkm or tkm) at urban level is
performed as a ratio between the total congestion cost and the total vkm (pkm or tkm) on
the whole urban road network (not only the congested roads).
With reference to congestion costs for freight vehicles (i.e., HGV and LCV) at the urban
level, the methodology applied for cars could not be replicated, due to lack of information.
Therefore, in order to provide some information to also cover this aspect, a simplified
approach has been applied, based on the estimation of congestion costs for cars, the
Value of Time by road vehicle category and data on vkm at urban level for LCVs and HGVs
(estimated/collected within this Handbook).
Figure 8 – Methodology for estimating urban congestion costs for delay cost and deadweight loss approaches
Assuming ranges of delays for the congested spots and the speed-flow function of the roads
where the spots are located, one can estimate the level of occupancy of each spot at peak
times, i.e. the amount of vehicles experiencing congestion in the most congested peak
hours (i.e., in terms of Passenger Cars Equivalents, or PCEs). On the basis of daily traffic
profiles assumed, the load in each hour can be estimated for different classes of road users
________________________________
27
For each spot, the amount of delay could be expressed in terms of additional time per km.
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(e.g., cars, trucks and coaches). The share of demand belonging to each class can be
estimated assuming a traffic segmentation (if available, from observations or modelling
exercises) (see Box in Annex F)28.
Given the capacity of the road links and considering the sum of all vehicle types (in terms of
PCEs), the load/capacity ratios can be estimated for each road link and hour (i.e., near
capacity, congested or over capacity29)30.
After this process, the total number of vehicles incurring congestion on the inter-urban
network in an average day is obtained for the assumed classes of road users. Vkms in
congestion by vehicle type can be estimated by multiplying loads by length of congested
network on a link level. The estimation of the amount of yearly traffic can be made
assuming 230 workdays per year.
The estimation of average congestion cost per vkm (pkm or tkm) by vehicle category at
inter-urban level is performed as a ratio between the total congestion cost and the total
vkm (pkm or tkm) on the whole inter-urban road network (not only the congested roads).
With reference to congestion costs for LCVs at inter-urban level, a simplified approach has
been applied in order to provide some information to also cover this aspect. Figure 9
illustrates the methodology for estimating inter-urban congestion costs.
Figure 9 – Methodology for estimating inter-urban congestion costs for delay cost and deadweight loss
approaches
________________________________
28 See also TRansport eUropean Simulation Tool
29
The following assumptions have been applied. Near capacity: flow to cap acity ratio between 0.8 and 1.0.
Congested: flow to capacity ratio between 1 and 1.2. Over capacity: flow to capacity ratio above 1.2.
30
For example, all vehicles travelling in hours with a load/capacity ratio higher than 0.75 can be considered
experiencing congestion.
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7.3.2 Input values
To estimate urban and inter-urban road congestion costs the following common input values
are needed:
— Speed-flow functions.
— Demand curve 𝐷(𝑞) based on literature cost elasticity. In particular, Littman (2011)
and Oum et.al. (1990) suggest different elasticity parameters to construct the demand
curve. They have been used by vehicle category and for peak and off-peak periods.
For cars, values have been estimated as weighted average of values by trip purpose,
considering the composition of trips in different periods.
Value of time (𝑉𝑂𝑇) for car and coach passengers by purpose (i.e., commuting, business
and leisure), for the drivers of the different vehicles and for freight road transport
(commodity). Values are needed by country and for short/long distance trips.
This Handbook uses UK Department for Transport (ARUP, 2015) for passengers and
HEATCO (2006), Comité National Routier (2016), Significance, VU University Amsterdam,
John Bates Services (2012) for freight. For freight transport (i.e. HGV and LCV) and
coaches the VOT of the driver has been considered in the analysis. The values can be
found in Annex F.2.2.
— Average vehicle occupancy/load factors for cars, buses, coaches, LCVs and HGVs are
those estimated within this Handbook by country.
With reference to the estimation of urban road congestion cost, specific inputs needed
are:
— Data on the level of congestion and road network length by road type (i.e., trunk
urban road, other urban road), average delay per day and total accumulated delay per
year (related to peak period journeys). Available from TomTom for a set of European
cities (see TOMTOM Traffic Index).
— Car mode share in a set of European cities. The information has been taken from the
EPOMM Modal Split Tool (TEMS), integrated with local sources where data from this tool
was not available.
— Population of European cities. Available from Eurostat and national statistical offices.
With reference to the estimation of inter-urban road congestion cost, specific inputs
needed are:
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time, i.e. the amount of vehicles experiencing congestion in the most congested peak
hour (i.e., in terms of PCEs31). This Handbook assumes the parameters and outputs of
the TRUST network model.
— Daily traffic profiles. Road profiles describe how traffic changes over a 24-hour period.
Representative road load profiles have to be estimated for passenger cars and trucks
during the day in different countries.
Table 41 summarises the estimations of the total and average congestion costs for road
transport, with respect to delay and deadweight loss approaches. The costs in this table are
the total costs borne by each vehicle type. It should be underlined that not all vehicle
categories have been considered in each context. The congestion costs for coaches has been
estimated only at inter-urban level. The impact of cars on public transport is not estimated
at urban level. Road traffic induces deviations of public transport from scheduled services
(e.g., generating platooning) and this is a context-specific effect, which cannot be
estimated at this scale of analysis. The literature does not provide useful evidence to
generalise from context-specific applications.
The average congestion cost reported in the table per vkm (pkm or tkm) are estimated on
the basis of the traffic on the whole network (not only the congested roads).
________________________________
31
PCE coefficients are taken from the TRUST model parameters, i.e. equal to 1 for cars and 2 for HGVs.
For coaches it is assumed the same value as HGVs.
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Table 41 - Total and average congestion costs borne by road vehicle categories in the EU28
Passenger transport Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm
[Billion €] pkm [Billion €] pkm
Freight transport Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm
[Billion €] tkm [Billion €] tkm
Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) 23.8 1.30 17.72 3.8 0.21 2.81
Table 42 summarises the estimated total congestion costs related to inter-urban traffic on
the motorways network only that is borne by the vehicles.
Table 42 - Total and average congestion cost of inter-urban traffic borne by vehicle categories on motorways
network
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In order to provide an estimation of the external road congestion costs based on the vehicle
categories generating congestion, a further step has been made. The total congestion costs
of passenger car, by country and by context, have been distributed amongst the other road
vehicle categories a measure representative of the share each vehicle type has in the cause
of congestion. In principle, the measure should be related to the traffic composition in a
congested situation, but this information is not readily available and strictly depends on
specific context and time of the day. Therefore, a simplified approach has been developed
by assuming that this measure could be obtained multiplying the total vkms of a given
context by the Passenger Car Equivalent coefficient (PCEs) of each vehicle type 32.
The average generated congestion costs per vkm (pkm or tkm) are then estimated as ratio
between the total costs and the traffic on the related total network (not only the congested
roads).
The following table summarises the estimated total and average congestion costs generated
by road vehicle categories in the EU28, according to the simplified approach used.
Table 43 - Total and average congestion costs generated by road vehicle categories in the EU28 according to
the simplified approach used
________________________________
32
The following assumptions have been made for PCE coefficients (taken where available from the TRUST model
parameters): equal to 1 for cars, 2 for HGVs and bus/coaches, 1.5 for LCVs.
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Vehicle category Delay costs Deadweight loss costs
Passenger transport Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm
[Billion €] [Billion €]
pkm pkm
Freight transport Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm
[Billion €] tkm [Billion €] tkm
Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) 14.6 0.8 10.9 2.5 0.1 1.8
Table 44 - Total and average congestion cost generated of inter-urban traffic by vehicle categories on
motorways network, according to the simplified approach used
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Vehicle category Delay costs Deadweight loss costs
Passenger transport Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm
[Billion €] [Billion €]
pkm pkm
Freight transport Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm Total EU28 €-cent/ €-cent/vkm
[Billion €] tkm [Billion €] tkm
7.4.1 Methodology
The social marginal road costs can be calculated only when the deadweight loss approach is
applied, because it needs the estimation of the social marginal cost curve. In this respect,
it is worth noting that this is an additional input needed with respect to the delay cost
approach, which estimates the road congestion costs only relying on information regarding
the private cost curve.
Road congestion (and therefore its cost) is highly dependent on the context. Of course, it
is unrealistic to assume that all specific circumstances where congestion occurs can be
identified and measured. Therefore, the estimation needs to be developed using
representative types of circumstances. These representative circumstances can be reflected
in different road types (i.e., urban roads, urban trunk roads, inter-urban roads and
motorways) and in different levels of traffic intensity (i.e., near capacity, congested and
over capacity).
The point where the demand curve and private cost curves cross has to be calculated
(i.e. point 𝐴), as well as the point where the demand curve and the social cost curves cross
(i.e. point 𝐶). Then the difference between social and private cost curves (i.e. segment 𝐴𝐶
in Figure 7) can be calculated to obtain the estimation of the social marginal cost33.
________________________________
33 This measure is the social marginal cost at the current level of congestion and can be used to estimate the
optimal congestion price (i.e., the segment BD in Figure 7). It is also worth observing that the marginal
congestion cost can be calculated for a traffic situation, beyond the economically optimal solution, with any
congestion charge. In this respect, there are many measures governments can take in the direction to reduce a
part of the external cost of road congestion. For example a grant that is introduced to subsidise rail services to
shift part of road users to public transport. In this case, the benefit of this reduction in road traffic is the
difference between the marginal social cost and the price at the current level of traffic.
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The estimation can be made differentiating peak and off-peak periods to take into account
the fact that trip purposes are not the same during different periods of the day and
therefore that values of time and elasticities of demand are also variable. As a final step,
the average daily value can be estimated based on an assumption on the amount of trips
during peak/off-peak periods.
With regards to this Handbook, for urban roads (i.e., trunk urban road and other urban
road) the estimation has been made for passenger cars only, while for inter-urban roads
(i.e., motorway, other non-urban roads), the vehicle categories considered are cars, trucks
and coaches. The differentiation between vehicle categories mainly consists in different
values of demand elasticities and different value of time per vehicle. More details on the
methodology to estimate road social marginal congestion costs are provided in Annex F.
It is important to notice that also for the marginal road congestion costs, a differentiation
between vehicle types can be made, according to the perspective of the vehicle generating
the cost. However, the estimation of the generated marginal road congestion cost by
different vehicle types has a limitation, which is related to the calculation of the cost
curves.
In general, cost curves depend much on the value of time and the marginal external
congestion cost is the difference between private cost function and marginal social cost
function (see functions 𝐴𝐶 and 𝑆𝑀𝐶 in Figure 7). If the existence of various vehicle types is
considered relevant, the calculation of the marginal social cost should consider that the
overall transport activity is made of a mix of various vehicle types. The value of time per
vehicle is highly variable across vehicle types because of different occupancy (e.g. a car vs.
a coach) and because the value of time of passengers and goods is different. Therefore, the
curve representing the marginal social costs can only be a sort of average, which will be
hardly representative of any real user.
Additionally, another relevant result of the estimation of the marginal road congestion costs
is the deadweight loss (area 𝐷𝑊𝐿 in Figure 7). Of course, for sake of consistency, the
estimation of the deadweight loss should be based on the same cost curves used to estimate
the marginal social cost. Then, also a demand curve is needed. If the curve of the marginal
social cost is a sort of average, also the demand curve should be a sort of average.
However, again, different vehicle types have different demand curves because they have
different elasticities. So, again, the representativeness of an average demand curve would
be limited.
And because of this limitation, the approach developed basically uses a different
perspective. It considers who incurs in congestion rather than who generates congestion.
This approach allows to take into account differences in values of time (and elasticity of
demand). These differences explain why costs are different across vehicle types, even if
there is no any reference to the effect of a given type to social costs. Furthermore, this
approach does not need to compute ‘average’ cost demand curves representing all different
vehicle types, so one level of approximation is avoided.
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In the light of this different approach, marginal road congestion costs incurred by a vehicle
type cannot be added to other external costs by vehicle type (if not for cars, as for this
vehicle type, generated costs are equal to incurred costs).
The social marginal congestion costs presented in Section 7.4.3 have been calculated
assuming the perspective of a vehicle incurring in a situation of road congestion. The
calculation of the marginal social costs generated has been developed according to the
sympilified methodology presented in Section 7.4.4.
Table 45 – Social marginal congestion costs34 of road transport per pkm and tkm
________________________________
34
The Social Marginal congestion cost estimated in this version of the Handbook coincides with the segment AC in
Figure 7. This definition has been assumed according to: The Marginal Cost of Traffic Congestion and Road
Pricing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Beijing (Li, et al., 2016). The Efficient Marginal Congestion
Cost (i.e., EMCC) of the 2014 version of the Handbook (see Annex A.1) coincides with the segment BD.
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Vehicle category Traffic situation Urban area Inter-urban area
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7.4.4 Social marginal road congestion cost generated using the simplified
approach
In order to provide values of the marginal generated road congestion costs by vehicle type
that can be compared to other marginal external costs computed in this version of the
Handbook, this section presents an estimation using the same approach adopted in (Maibach
et al. (2000) and in the 2008 version of the Handbook, i.e. taking the marginal cost of cars
and estimating those of other vehicle types by multiplying this cost by the Passenger Car
Equivalent coefficient (PCEs) of each vehicle type.
The following assumptions have been made for PCE coefficients (taken where available
from the TRUST model parameters): equal to 1 for cars, 2 for HGVs and bus/coaches, 1.5
for LCVs. Values in Table 47 and Table 48 can be used to estimate social marginal
congestion costs generated by different type of vehicles in specific circumstances if a more
detailed analysis is not feasible.
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Table 47 – Social marginal congestion costs of road transport generated per pkm and tkm using the simplified
approach
Table 48 – Social marginal congestion costs of road transport generated per vkm using the simplified approach
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Vehicle category Traffic situation Urban area Inter-urban area
For this reason, starting from the previous version of the Handbook, we have developed a
methodological approach that enlarges the scope of outputs available to the final user, thus
enhancing the potential usability of the outputs for further context-specific applications.
In this respect, total and average road congestion costs, have been estimated for both delay
and deadweight loss, in order to present the orders of magnitude at country and EU28 level.
The social marginal cost is the measure that can be used to estimate the optimal congestion
price.
For the above reasons, we consider the deadweight loss approach more useful for its
relevance for policy making and from the perspective of marginal cost pricing. Total and
average generated congestion costs have been estimated developing a simplified approach
to make them comparable with the other external costs estimated in this Hankbook.
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7.6 Congestion costs of other transport modes
The review of existing literature for other transport modes did not reveal many new sources
(as compared to the 2014 Handbook) of congestion or scarcity costs estimates, for rail, air
or water transport that could be recommended as a best practice methodology (see also
Annex F.8).
As illustrated in Section 7.2.2, scarcity costs concern path allocation issues and should be
only considered in service planning. They correspond to the opportunity-cost of choosing
one of the incompatible services. Since the estimation of scarcity costs is very complex, it
has been suggested (see for example Quinet, 2003) to use auctions to reveal the values on
which the regulator has an information asymmetry compared to other agents. Once the
time table of the services has been designed, congestion costs may happen and they should
be taken into account in infrastructure pricing.
For rail some methodologies exist at country level to price rail networks capacity according
to type of service, time and path. However, there is no straightforward evidence that the
actual charges reflect the scarcity of slots.
The congestion costs of a rail network can be estimated starting from the information on
the actual reactionary delays of trains, multiplied by the number of affected passengers and
by a suitable average value of time. In the rail industry, there are not many costs borne
by the infrastructure manager and operators because of the congestion, excluding the
compensation paid to the users for the delays suffered. However, to include these
compensations would represent double counting.
Marginal cost estimates for rail freight congestion are available by Christidis and Brons
(2016)35. The average value for EU is equal to €-cent 43.20 per 1.000 tkm (2016 prices).
Table 119 in Annex F.8 shows the values for EU Member States. For US, Austin (2015)
estimates rail freight congestion costs to be equal to €-cent 0.0-14.0 per 1.000 tkm (2016
prices).
The urban public transport congestion costs received little consideration. Prud’homme
et al. (2012) argue that, in principle, users shifting from cars to bus, tram or subway,
increasing the crowding on urban public transport vehicles, causing a comfort loss to all
other passengers already travelling. This comfort loss due to increased crowding from modal
shift, which can be considered another form of congestion cost, is an externality leading to
a suboptimal usage of the tram, bus or subway36. That could be corrected by means of a
congestion tax (e.g., subway toll). Prud’homme et al. (2012) elaborated a congestion cost
curve for crowding of public transport for the Paris subway on data of 2009. The estimated
willingness to pay for a non-congested travel emerged to be equal to € 1.43 per trip.
It is also worth noting that, according to de Palma et al. (2017), urban public transport
congestion may be as important as road congestion37. For example, Borjesson et al. (2017)
found that in Stockholm the marginal cost of an extra passenger bus can be higher than the
marginal external cost of a car during the peak period. Similar results were found for Paris
in Kilani et al. (2014).
________________________________
35 Freight marginal average external costs of transport per country_v3.xls.
36 This consideration assumes a short run period approach in which the number of vehicles can be varied, but the
infrastructure cannot. If vehicles are added, for example in the peak period to offset the comfort loss, the cost
for expanding the vehicles is not an external cost, but an internal cost of the operator.
37
For example, in large metropolitan areas (e.g., Paris and London), there are more trips by public than by
private transport.
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For air transport, congestion can be associated with a lack of sufficient capacity to
accommodate the required demand of aircraft movements for landings and take-offs.
Like for rail transport, in airports the airlines do not enter the system randomly, with
aircraft movements scheduled in advance (i.e., in time slots). However, any perturbation
introduced by exogenous factors causes cascade-effects congestion and accumulation of
delays during the next periods.
Congestion costs of airports can be estimated starting from the information on actual delays
of flights, observed over a certain time period. That allows us to calculate the total time
lost by passengers and airlines to be translated into monetary terms.
For air passengers, once that delay time per flight is available, it is necessary to estimate
the number of passengers affected. Ideally, one should have the exact number of
passengers on each flight, so that the number of minutes of delays can be translated into
total passengers’ time38. If this is not the case, it is possible to approximate the number of
passengers knowing at least the capacity of the aircraft serving a route. If the type of
aircraft is known, one can rely on the average number of passengers that each model of
aircraft may accommodate. Otherwise, standard values of 60-80% can be taken. The value
of time for passengers is generally derived from the literature (e.g., (Wardman, et al.,
2012) and if possible this should be differentiated with respect to ticket classes (i.e., first,
business and economy).
For airlines congestion involves extra costs because of the degradation of the airline
product. First, direct costs that refer to additional fuel consumption, time at gate, taxiing
time to enter the runway, en-route flight (e.g., circling) and maintenance. Second, but
much more difficult to estimate are the indirect costs borne in terms of lost revenues,
compensation to passengers and opportunity costs. Clearly, if passengers’ cost of time lost
has already been considered, the airlines’ compensation payments would represent double
counting 39.
________________________________
38 Eurocontrol gathers data that allow delays costs for passengers to be calculated (Eurocontrol, 2017).
Eurocontrol publishes data in CODA (i.e., all-causes delay and cancellations to air transport) reports, where
delay causes are grouped with respect to primary causes (i.e., airline operations, airport operations, en -route,
governmental, weather and miscellaneous.) and reactionary delay. Data refers both to single airports (i.e.,
ranking the most affected) and pairs of connected airports (i.e., ranking the most delayed links).
39
Passengers cost of delay is a dominating cost for airlines, although generally poorly quantified or supported by
incomplete evidence (Cook & Tanner, 2015).
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8 Costs of well-to-tank emissions
8.1 Introduction
All cost categories discussed in the chapters before cover direct effects of the transport
operation process. However, there is a broad range of other up- and downstream processes
directly related to transport that also lead to negative external effects. Taking a life-cycle
oriented view on transport, the energy production (well-to-tank), the vehicle and
infrastructure production, maintenance and disposal all lead to the emission of air
pollutants, greenhouse gases, toxic substances and other negative environmental impacts.
The by far most relevant effects are the emissions due to energy production, often also
called well-to-tank emissions. These costs are directly linked to the transport activity and
can be calculated on a profound basis. Therefore, the present chapter focuses on the costs
of well to tank emissions. Any other indirect costs of other up- and downstream processes
are covered in Chapter 10 on ‘other external costs’.
The cost of well-to-tank emissions (= costs of energy production) includes the production of
all different type of energy sources which leads to emissions and other externalities.
The extraction of energy sources, the processing (e.g. refining or electricity production),
the transport and transmission, the building of energy plants and other infrastructures: all
these processes lead to emission of air pollutants, greenhouse gases and other substances.
The emissions during the production of energy sources are very relevant in terms of total
external costs. Mainly for electricity driven transport modes, the effects of energy
production are very relevant since the energy use is virtually emission-free.40
Different studies on external costs of transport cover different external cost categories.
The most recent studies generally cover the air pollution costs and the climate change
costs. Negative impacts on ecosystems, land use or nuclear power risks are not covered for
methodological reasons (high uncertainty and monetization not (yet) feasible). Chapter 10
on ‘other external costs’ further elaborates on some of those topics.
________________________________
40
For electric cars, WTT costs are presented in the marginal cost section for selected cases. However, no total
and average costs are calculated due to lack of transport performance data.
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8.3 Total and average costs of well-to-tank emissions
8.3.1 Methodology
The methodology for calculating the cost of well-to-tank emissions is the same as for the
cost of air pollution (see Chapter 4) and the climate change costs (see Chapter 5).
The valuation is done with the same cost factors. However, it has to be taken into account
that it is very often not known at what place (meaning: at which population density) the
emissions occur. Therefore, the valuation has to be made with an average cost factor or a
cost factor for ‘unknown sources’.
The emission factors include the emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants emitted
during the process of energy production. Generally, the average energy consumption
(electricity consumption, diesel or petrol consumption) is the central basis for deriving
specific emission factors for the well-to-tank emissions.
The main data source for emission factors of well-to-tank emissions are the emission
database TREMOD (IFEU, 2017) as well as the European research data from the JEC well-to-
wheel analysis (2014). For electric driven vehicles, the emission factors of the country
specific electricity mix have been used.
The cost factors for monetizing the emissions are directly taken from the two corresponding
cost categories: the air pollution costs (see Chapter 4) and the climate change costs (see
Chapter 5). For climate change costs, the same shadow price per tonne of CO2 is applied.
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For the air pollution costs, the shadow prices for the emission of air pollutants from
unknown sources (EU average) are applied.
Table 49 – Well-to-tank air pollution costs: damage cost estimates in €/kg emission (emissions in the year 2016, EU28 values)
€2016 /kg NOX NMVOC SO2 PM2.5 (exhaust) PM10 (non- exhaust)
Austria 21.9 2.3 16.2 26.8 30.9
Belgium 16.2 3.6 17.1 34.6 47.2
Bulgaria 5.7 0 4.2 7.1 5.4
Croatia 12.2 0.9 8 16.3 8.2
Cyprus 5.4 -0.4 7.8 10.9 20.1
Czech Republic 14.5 1.1 11.6 22.6 39.6
Denmark 10.3 1.5 9.6 14 15
Estonia 3.2 0.3 5.2 5.9 4.9
Finland 4 0.4 4.6 4.8 11.9
France 17.3 1.5 13.9 25.1 5.9
Germany 20.2 1.8 16.5 37.7 24.7
Greece 3 0.3 5.9 7.8 24.8
Hungary 15.3 0.8 9.9 20.4 8.5
Ireland 9.8 1.7 11.8 13.7 12.2
Italy 14.1 1.1 12.7 21.1 19
Latvia 4.8 0.4 4.8 5.7 17.2
Lithuania 7.5 0.6 6.4 7.8 27
Luxembourg 35.5 6.2 29.3 63.9 8
Malta 1.7 0.4 4.3 6.2 63.9
Netherlands 14.4 2.8 20.2 37.4 5.6
Poland 8 0.7 8.2 16.3 5.2
Portugal 1.4 0.5 4.1 5.2 47.3
Romania 9.3 0.5 7.3 12.5 16.1
Slovakia 13.8 0.7 10.1 18.4 12.3
Slovenia 13.1 1.2 9.2 16.1 12
Spain 4.9 0.7 6.8 9.9 10.2
Sweden 6.9 0.7 5.5 6.3 15.2
United Kingdom 7.2 1.4 10 18.3 16.2
EU28 10.9 1.2 10.9 19.4 22.3
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Table 50 – Total and average costs of well-to-tank emissions for land-based modes for the EU28
The costs due to greenhouse gas emissions from well-to-tank contribute to about 60–65% of
the well-to-tank costs. For road transport, for example, the share of climate change costs is
62%, the share of air pollution costs 38%.
Table 51 – Total and average well-to-tank costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports
* Costs per pax are including the complete flight (not only the half -way principle). The WTT costs for aviation
have been calculated based on specific emission factors for WTT emissions (greenhouse gases and air
pollutants) from TREMOD (IFEU 2017).
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Table 52 presents rough estimates for the average and total external well-to-tank costs of
maritime transport. These data are only available for freight. The average cost have been
based on the cost for reference cases presented in Section 8.4 and data on the number of
port calls for the selected ports from Eurostat. The total well-to-tank cost has been based
on the average cost and the number of tkms provided by DG MOVE41. The available data
does not allow an estimation of costs at the individual port level.
Table 52 – Rough estimates for total and average external well-to-tank costs for maritime transport for 34
selected EU ports
The costs for road vehicles are presented for all differentiations provided by COPERT, e.g.
different fuel types, engines or vehicle sizes, emission classes and regional areas. It needs
to be emphasised that, like for climate costs, the Euro standard is not a cost driver. There
are some differences between the results for the different Euro standards though, that are
the result of the COPERT emission data. These differences are related to the improved
energy efficiency over time and impacts of emission reduction technology on fuel
efficiency.
The size classes for trucks from COPERT do not match with those for the Eurostat transport
performance data used for this Handbook. The load factors for trucks have therefore been
based on interpolation of the Eurostat data.
Annex J contains the marginal WTT cost data for road vehicles for reference cases that are
defined in terms of the combination of fuel type and fuel efficiency of the vehicle (which
are, just like for climate cost, the main cost drivers for WTT cost).
The following table on marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions for road transport shows the
costs per pkm or tkm (except for LCV, where costs per vkm are presented due to the fact
that LCV have characteristics of freight and passenger transport). The costs per vkm for the
different vehicle categories of road transport are available in the background Excel file.
Table 53 – Average/marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions road transport for selected cases
Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
________________________________
41
See footnote 16.
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Vehicle Fuel type Size Emission Motorway Urban road Other road
category class
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Table 54 – Average/marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions rail transport for selected cases
€-cent/tkm
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Table 55 – Average/marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions IWT for selected cases (€-cent per tkm)
Table 56 – Average/marginal costs of well-to-tank emissions maritime transport for selected cases
Passenger transport
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Vessel type Distance at sea € per trip €-cent per € per
(km) pkm or tkm vessel-km
Type of flight Distance Emission Example of aircraft type €-cent per pkm € per pax
class
(km)
The marginal costs of aviation for selected cases and aircrafts cannot be directly compared
with the average costs: The marginal costs refer to very specific aircraft types, distances
and loading factors that do not match the average. E.g. for short haul flights, the average
number of passenger per flight is substantially higher than for the selected cases (since
many short haul flights are done by larger aircraft). Additionally, the average distances are
different than the one use in the selected cases.
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8.5 Robustness of results
The well-to-tank costs due to the emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are quite
well investigated. However, the emissions are occurring always indirectly and the exact
place of the emissions is generally not known. Therefore, the emission levels always have
some uncertainty. The cost factors also have some uncertainty due to the number of people
exposed and country where the emissions occur generally being unknown. Overall, the
quality of the results for well-to-tank costs is acceptable, but not as high as for the costs
due to direct emissions (tank-to-wheel emissions).
A further conceptual consideration is that part of the well-to-tank greenhouse gas emissions
will be regulated under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which means a carbon
price is applied. As the EU ETS is a capped system, reducing well-to-tank emissions does not
necessarily lead to equal economy-wide emission reductions in the short term.
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9 Costs of habitat damage
9.1 Introduction
Transport has different effects on nature, landscape and natural habitats. The main effects
reported in literature are habitat loss (ecosystem loss), habitat fragmentation and negative
effects on ecosystems due to the emission of air pollutants (e.g. biodiversity loss).
However, the negative effects of transport on nature and landscape are covered in limited
external costs studies.
In this chapter, the scope of the cost category is presented (see Section 9.2) and then the
total and average costs of nature and landscape are described (see Section 9.3) — first the
methodological approach, then the results.
There are limited studies covering the external costs of habitat damage due to transport
activities. A brief overview on the relevant literature is shown in Annex G. The most
detailed bottom-up calculations of the cost of habitat damage have been made by the
European research project NEEDS (2006), INFRAS, Ecoplan (2018) and UBA (2018), based on
NEEDS.
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9.3 Total and average costs of habitat damage
9.3.1 Methodology
Total and average costs of habitat damage are calculated based on the infrastructure
network length (or area) and average cost factors for habitat loss and habitat
fragmentation. Figure 6 illustrates the corresponding methodology.
Cost factors
The following table summarizes the cost factors for habitat loss and habitat fragmentation
for the EU28 average. The cost factors are derived from the latest bottom-up calculations
for the Swiss study on external costs of transport (INF (INFRAS en Ecoplan, 2018).
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Table 58 – Cost factors for costs of habitat damage EU28
Source: Own calculations based on INFRAS, Ecoplan 2018 (External effects of transport in Switzerland 2015) .
Based on the EU28 average values, cost factors for all countries have been calculated (Table
59), based on the same value transfer approach used in the whole Handbook (GDP/cap PPP
adjusted).
Table 59 – Cost factors for costs of habitat damage for all countries
Cost in €2016 per km and year Road €/(km *a) Rail €/(km*a) Aviation Inland
€/(km2 *a) waterways
Motorways Other roads High-speed Other railways €/(km*a)
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Cost in €2016 per km and year Road €/(km *a) Rail €/(km*a) Aviation Inland
€/(km2 *a) waterways
Motorways Other roads High-speed Other railways €/(km*a)
Source: Own calculations based on INFRAS, Ecoplan 2018 (External effects of transport in Switzerland 2015) .
An alternative source for cost factors for habitat loss is the European research study NEEDS
(2006), where cost factors for biodiversity loss due to ecosystem (habitat) loss have been
reported. The cost factors are based on a restoration cost approach and presented for
different ecosystem types.
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Table 60 – Cost factors for ecosystem (habitat) loss
Built-up land 0
Intensive arable 0
Forests 3.2
The following results on the external costs of habitat damage have been based on the cost
factors presented in Table 58 and Table 59 (based on INFRAS, Ecoplan 2018).
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Table 61 – Total and average costs of habitat damage for land-based transport modes in the EU28
* Total costs without highspeed passenger trains (average costs for passenger train electric: incl. high speed
trains).
Table 62 – Total and average habitat costs for aviation for 33 selected EU airports
Passenger aviation
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Total passenger aviation 0.050 0.007 12.2
Concerning the marginal costs of habitat damage, the marginal costs of habitat loss are
virtually zero (only if infrastructure capacity has to be enhanced due to high demand, there
are additional marginal costs). The marginal costs of habitat fragmentation, however, can
be assumed to be substantial, and in some cases almost as high as the average cost of
habitat fragmentation, since the traffic on a road really hinders animals to pass.
It is not possible to make a generally applicable estimation of the marginal costs of habitat
damage. However, the marginal costs will be between zero (as a minimum estimation) and
the average costs of habitat fragmentation (as a maximum estimation).
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10 Other external costs
The goal of this chapter is to present the further negative externalities of transport.
The chapter focuses on other external cost categories that are not quantified or discussed
in the previous chapters. Many sub-categories are already mentioned in the previous
chapters such as damage costs due to toxic emissions or cost of downstream emissions
(see Chapter 8).
This chapter focuses on a qualitative description and brief discussion of other external costs
of transport and gives some selective quantitative references. All cost categories with
quantitative results and recommendations of cost factors are covered in the detailed
chapters above.
— Pollution of soil (and water) with organic toxic substances. The burning of fuels also
leads to the emission of organic toxic substances (persistent organic pollutants POP).
However, the corresponding emissions are relatively low. One of the few studies
covering the cost of organic toxic emissions of transport is INFRAS, Ecoplan (2018).
In water transport (maritime transport, inland waterways) the use of antifouling agents
for ship paint is another source of emissions of toxic substances, generally organic
pollutants, metal-organic compounds or heavy metals (e.g. zinc).
Specific cost factors for the emission of toxic pollutants such as heavy metals and
organic compounds are recommended in the new Dutch Shadow Prices Handbook
(CE Delft, 2018) or in the European research study EXIOPOL (2011).
— Pollution of soil (and water) due to waste and ballast water. In maritime transport and
inland waterways, waste water and ballast water leads to the pollution of seawater,
lakes or rivers. The emissions mainly occur in ports and can lead to substantial water
pollution. There are several methods for treating ballast and other waste water, which
all lead to substantial costs. Hence, the cost of waste and ballast water could be
quantified by using a restoration cost approach. The external cost of waste and ballast
water are discussed in many studies (e.g. (Hayman, et al., 2000), (Trozzi, 2003) and
where quantified (which is rare) this is done by the means of the restoration costs
(e.g. (JRC, 2009).
— Pollution of soil (and water) due to oil spills and oil risks. A specific type of water
pollution is the cost of oil spills or accidents related to the extraction of oil. Such
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uncontrolled oil emissions lead to substantial pollution of the sea. Above all, the large
accidents with oil drillings (e.g. Deepwater Horizon) have led to high environmental
costs. Many studies mention those effects and give indicative data on the external costs
(e.g. (Navrud, et al., 2016); (Farrow & Larson, 2012); (Bigano, et al., 2009); (VTPI,
2017). Those cost factors are however mainly from single events or accidents or refer to
the costs of preventative measures (Navrud, et al., 2016).
The life-cycle emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases for vehicles and
infrastructure are covered in a number of external cost studies (e.g. (UBA, 2018), (CE Delft,
INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011), (INFRAS en Ecoplan, 2018)) . However, the ecosystem
damage due to energy production is covered only in selected studies, generally focussing on
very concrete cases and ecosystems (e.g. based on a willingness-to-pay study). Generalised
cost factors or shadow prices for ecosystem damage due to wind, solar or hydro plants are
not available yet.
Recently, two studies have validated and updated the mountain factors, based on the
methodological approach of the GRACE (2006) study (EUSALP, 2017), (CEREMA, 2018). In the
study from EUSALP (2017), all cost drivers that influence the different environmental costs
are reassessed, considering the latest research results. Additionally, possible additional cost
drivers are examined as well as additional cost categories (accident costs, costs for nature
and landscape). Finally, new mountain factors for Alpine regions have been suggested.
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The following section summarises briefly the methodology and results from the EUSALP
(2017) study.
The analysis to derive cost factors (mountain factors) follows the approach along the
‘impact pathway approach’, as the main methodology to assess environmental costs based
on a damage cost approach. The methodological approach used in the present study is the
same as in the GRACE study (2006), which is based on cost drivers and ‘cost differential
factors’ (mountain factors) along the impact-pathway. The following elements of the
impact-pathway can influence the external costs in mountain regions:
— Emissions: higher emission level e.g. due to gradients and altitude.
— Damage cost: different cost factors for damage costs, i.e. due to country-specific
monetization factors, specific prices, etc.
In summary, the mountain factors for all levels of the impact-pathway approach result in an
overall factor for the cost per transport performance (vkm) in mountain regions in
comparison to non-mountain regions (or a country average). The result of the analysis is a
‘mountain factor’ for a certain category of external costs (e.g. air pollution costs, noise
costs, accident costs) and transport mode (road, rail).
The EUSALP (2017) study analysed the following cost categories: air pollution costs, noise
costs, nature and landscape costs (habitat damage), accident costs and climate change
costs. The EUSALP study focuses on rail and road freight transport. The analysis is based on
a corridor approach, meaning that the cost factors derived apply to whole corridors and not
only specific infrastructures.
The following table summarises the main results of the EUSALP (2017) study, showing the
mountain factors for the different external cost categories. Additionally, the values of the
GRACE study (2006) are also represented as a comparison. It is important to state that the
different mountain factors do not say anything about the absolute level of external costs,
but only represent the factors between external costs in mountainous and external costs in
non-mountainous areas.
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* For visual intrusion, the GRACE study suggested a factor of 10.7 for road transport and 5.3 for rail transport.
The results of the analysis of external costs of transport in mountain areas can be
summarised as following (cited from EUSALP 2017):
— Air pollution costs: The main cost driver for the air pollution costs in the Alpine Region
are the higher immissions due to inversion (factor 4.4). Other cost drivers are the higher
emissions due to the higher gradients and the altitude (e.g. higher emissions due to
steeper roads/rails and higher exhaust emissions in higher altitudes). The resulting
mountain factor for air pollution is slightly lower than in the GRACE (2006) study, which
is mainly as a result of the lower factor for population density (based on a more detailed
GIS based analysis), which outweighs the slightly higher value for the immission
(concentration). However, overall the air pollution costs in mountain areas are
substantially higher than in non-mountain areas.
— Noise costs: For noise costs, the main cost driver in mountain areas are the higher
immissions due to topographical and meteorological conditions (inversion, amphitheatre
effect). Other relevant factors are the gradients (higher noise emissions due to steeper
roads/rails) and the population density. The resulting mountain factor for noise costs
are slightly lower than in the GRACE (2006) study (again mainly as a result of the lower
factor for population density).
— Costs of habitat damage (nature and landscape): For nature and landscape, a mountain
factor has been derived for the first time in the EUSALP (2017) study. Based on detailed
results of the Swiss study on external costs of transport (INFRAS en Ecoplan, 2018),
significantly higher costs for habitat loss and habitat fragmentation in mountain areas
compared to non-mountain areas have been derived due to more diverse and more
valuable ecosystems. The resulting mountain factors are 1.3 for road (motorways) and
1.4 for rail transport.
— Accident costs: For accident costs, there is also evidence for higher costs in mountain
areas, mainly due to higher infrastructure investments to keep the accident rate as low
as possible. For the first time, a mountain factor has been derived for accident costs in
the EUSALP (2017) study. The calculation is based on an avoidance cost approach taking
into account additional infrastructure safety measures on roads in Alpine corridors.
The resulting factor for accident cost in mountain areas is around 5.
— Climate change costs: For climate change, a mountain factor has been checked in the
EUSALP (2017) study. The conclusion was that no mountain factor cannot be derived for
methodological reasons (it is a global issue with global effects).
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— Land use and ecosystem damage for upstream processes: Different upstream processes
of transport can lead to ecosystem damage and/or land use, e.g. the electricity
generation or the exploitation of mineral oil products. The external costs of those effects
are not in the main focus of the Handbook, although they are relevant. Additionally,
there are existing some selected studies on external costs associated with those
processes (e.g. Mattmann et al. 2016), but no well accepted cost factors, e.g. for
different land use or ecosystem damage due to different types of electricity generation.
— Cost of nuclear risks: Another type of upstream cost from energy production is the risks
from nuclear power plants. The risk of a nuclear incident has a very low probability but a
potentially very high damage potential (a ‘Damocles risk’). Therefore, it is very difficult to
quantify the corresponding external costs. In addition to the costs of potential nuclear
incidents, the disposal of nuclear waste is linked to costs (the costs of the disposal, often
not covered in the electricity production costs; and also the risk of the disposal). The
nuclear risks are a relevant externality, although it can hardly be quantified. Some older
studies cover the costs due to nuclear power risks, however, the basis for monetizing
those external effects is very old and no broadly accepted new studies on the cost of
nuclear power risks have been conducted. Hence, this Handbook does not include cost
factors for the nuclear power risks (in line with previous versions of the Handbook).
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11 Synthesis
11.1 Introduction
This chapter contains the overall results on average and total external costs. First the total
external costs are discussed, then the average external costs. All figures refer to the EU28
member states for the year 2016. The congestion costs are not shown in certain graphs
because they cannot be shown for all vehicle types. However, the sum of the congestion
costs is included in the analysis.
For aviation and maritime transport, the detailed calculation of the external costs has only
been done for for a set of selected airports and ports. The total external costs for EU28 for
aviation and maritime have only been roughly estimated. Table 67 shows the results for the
external costs for the selected airports and ports, Table 68 includes the indicative figures
(estimations) for EU28 for aviation and maritime transport43. For the selected 33 EU airports
the external costs amount to € 33 billion, for the selected 34 EU ports the costs amount to
€ 44 billion.
The most important cost category is accident costs equating to 29% of the total costs,
followed by the congestion costs (27%) (see Figure 13). Climate change and air pollution
costs both contribute to 14% of the total costs, noise costs to 7% and habitat damage to 4%
of the total costs. Well to tank emission costs due to energy production and distribution
lead to 5% of the costs.
Road transport is the predominant mode that causes by far the most external costs (83% of
the total costs incl. aviation and maritime; 97.5% excl. aviation and maritime). Maritime
transport causes 10%, aviation 5%, rail transport 1.8% and inland waterways 0.3% of the
costs (see Figure 14). 69% of the total costs are due to passenger transport, 31% of the costs
are caused by freight transport (including LCVs).
________________________________
42 Please notice, that part of these delay costs are internalised and hence that they are only partly external. The
size of the external part of the delay costs is unknown.
43
Not for all external costs categories an estimation of the total EU28 costs for aviation and maritime can be
calculated. For those (small) cost categories without EU28 estimation, the results for the selected airports and
ports have been used.
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Figure 12 – Total external costs 2016 for EU28 (excluding congestion)
Bi l lion € per year
250
200
150
100
50
0
Car Bus/Coach MC Rail Aviation° LDV HGV Rail IWT Aviation° Maritime°
Passenger transport Freight Transport
Figure 13 – Share of the different cost categories on total external costs 2016 for EU28
5% 4% Accidents
Air Pollution
29%
Climate
27%
Noise
Congestion
14%
7% Well-to-Tank
14%
Habitat damage
Including data for aviation and maritime: rough estimations for EU28.
Figure 14 – Share of the different transport modes on total external costs 2016 for EU28
5% 1.8% 0.3%
Road
10%
Maritime°
Aviation°
Rail
83%
IWT
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The total external costs per country are shown for road, rail and IWT in Table 6444.
This table also shows the share of these costs in the national GDP. This share range from
3.4% in Norway to over 7% in Portugal and Luxembourg.
Table 64 – Total external costs 2016 for road transport, rail transport and IWT per country
Country Road (bn €) Rail (bn €) IWT (bn €) Total (bn €) % of GDP
EU 28 820.4 17.87 2.90 841.1 5.7%
Austria 18.3 0.85 0.044 19.2 5.9%
Belgium 26.4 0.42 0.183 27.0 7.0%
Bulgaria 6.5 0.12 0.047 6.6 6.5%
Croatia 5.0 0.07 0.015 5.1 6.9%
Cyprus 1.1 - - 1.1 5.1%
Czech Republic 13.6 0.40 0.004 14.0 5.2%
Denmark 8.2 0.18 - 8.4 4.1%
Estonia 1.5 0.04 0.014 1.5 5.3%
Finland 7.4 0.23 0.073 7.7 4.4%
France 109.1 1.76 0.181 111.0 5.5%
Germany 165.7 5.37 1.228 172.3 5.8%
Greece 12.8 0.06 - 12.8 6.0%
Hungary 11.1 0.43 0.037 11.5 6.0%
Ireland 14.3 0.06 - 14.4 5.7%
Italy 115.0 2.20 0.009 117.2 6.8%
Latvia 2.3 0.18 - 2.5 6.7%
Lithuania 3.9 0.12 - 4.0 6.3%
Luxembourg 3.2 0.03 0.009 3.3 7.5%
Malta 0.4 - - 0.4 3.6%
Netherlands 29.6 0.35 0.848 30.8 4.9%
Poland 40.2 1.28 0.018 41.5 5.5%
Portugal 16.8 0.18 - 16.9 7.2%
Romania 21.2 0.46 0.171 21.8 6.5%
Slovakia 5.4 0.33 0.012 5.7 4.7%
Slovenia 2.7 0.05 - 2.7 5.5%
Spain 64.3 0.83 - 65.1 5.2%
Sweden 15.3 0.46 - 15.8 4.5%
United Kingdom 99.4 1.42 0.009 100.8 4.9%
Norway 7.4 0.17 - 7.6 3.4%
Switzerland 15.3 0.76 0.001 16.1 4.1%
________________________________
44
As not all ports and airports are included, they have to be excluded when comparing different countries.
Otherwise small countries where e.g. all air traffic takes places in one airport would see a higher cost as share
of GDP only because all its aviation activity is accounted for.
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Table 65 – Total external costs 2016 for EU28 passenger transport by cost category and transport mode
Passenger Transport
Road Rail
Pass car - Pass car - Pass car - Bus Coach MC High-speed Electric pax convent (non Diesel tot pax
petrol diesel total Train high speed)
Cost category bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a
Air Pollution 8.6 24.8 33.4 1.4 2.7 1.8 0.002 0.03 0.52
Climate 32.0 23.5 55.6 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.00 0.00 0.22
Noise 13.8 12.4 26.2 0.8 0.9 14.8 0.4 2.6 0.9
Well-to-Tank 10.4 7.7 18.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 2.7 0.1
Habitat damage 14.1 11.8 25.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 0.5
154 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
Table 66 – Total external costs 2016 for EU28 freight transport by cost category and transport mode
Freight Transport
LCV-petrol LCV-diesel LCV-total HGV - total Electric freight Diesel freight Inland vessel
155 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
For aviation and maritime transport the total costs have been calculated only for selected
airports and ports. The total and average costs for aviation and maritime shipping for the
selected (air)ports are shown in the following table.
Aviation Maritime
Cost category bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a bn €/a
Air Pollution 0.24 0.32 0.30 0.03 0.06 0.06 1.0 29.1
In addition, the total for the selected (air)ports have been extrapolated to retrieve
estimates for EU28, for the most important cost categories. It should be noted that these
estimates are relatively rough, as they assume that the the transport to/from the selected
(air)ports (in terms of aircraft, ships and distances) are representative for the entire EU.
156 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
Table 68 – Indicative estimates for the most relevant total external costs for all EU28 (air)ports
Aviation45 Maritime
Climate 33 24*
Well-to-Tank 13 9
Total EU28 48 98
* These total climate costs for maritime shipping have been based on the transport performance, in order to be
consistent with the other transport modes and cost categories. The 2018 DG MOVE pocketbook reports
167.2 million tonnes CO 2 equivalent by navigation, out of which 20.3 is domestic navigation (which includes
inland waterways). According to these data the climate cost of maritime and inland waterways together are
16.7 bn €. As the climate costs of inland navigation are 0.4 bn € (see Table 66), the costs of maritime shipping
amount 16.3 bn €, according to these data. However, these data are based on bunkered fuels which is not a
appropriate proxy for the fuel consumed for th e international maritime shipping to/from EU ports.
** For the (small) cost categories for which no estimations of EU28 was available, the results for the selected
airports and ports have been used.
The average costs of air transport are around €-cent 3.4 per pkm, which is only about 20%
higher than average rail costs. However, the result for air transport is an average, including
data for short, medium and also long haul flights to and from European airports.
The average costs between these distance classes differ from €-cent 4.3 per pkm for short
haul flights, to €-cent 2.8 per pkm for medium haul and €-cent 3.2 per pkm for long haul.
When comparing aviation and rail for the same distance classes, external costs of aviation
________________________________
45 The total climate change costs of aviation for the total EU28 have been estimated roughly the following:
the total CO 2 emission of aviation in EU28 have been 163.7 Mio. t CO 2 eq. in 2016. Under the assumption that for
aviative greenhouse gas emissions an emission weighting factor (EWF) of 2.0 is applicaple to the total CO 2
emissions and the climate cost factor of 100 €/t CO 2 eq., the total climate costs are around 32.7 bn €/a.
The WTT costs have been based on the Climate costs
157 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
(short haul flights: 4.3 €-cent/pkm) are 3 times higher than rail (high speed rail:
1.3 €-cent/pkm).
Main cost drivers for the external costs of aviation are the share of the LTO cycle of the
total flight (which is higher for short haul flights), the size and fuel use of the aircrafts and
the load factor. For road transport, the predominant cost categories are accidents and
emissions (climate change, air pollution). For air transport, climate change costs are the
main category. Please note that for aviation and maritime, the EU average costs are
averages for the selected EU-(air)ports that may not be representative for all EU (air)ports.
Figure 15 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28: passenger transport (excluding congestion)
€-ct/pkm
Habitat damage
30
Well-to-Tank
25 Noise
Climate
20
Air Pollution
15 Accidents
10
0
Car Bus/Coach MC Rail Aviation*
Passenger transport
* Aviation: average for selected EU28 airports.
For freight transport (see Figure 16), the average costs for rail transport are 1.3 €-cent per
tkm. The costs for inland waterways are slightly higher (€-cent 1.9 per tkm) than for rail.
The average costs for road freight transport (HGVs) are €-cent 3.4 per tkm (without
congestion) which is 2.6 times higher than for rail. Including congestion, the average costs
for road freight transport are 4.2 €-cent per tkm (3.2 times higher than for rail freight
transport). It may be surprising that the noise costs for rail are higher per tkm than for a
HGV. This is due to the data used from the noise maps. There are separate maps for road
and rail transport, which reveal that fewer people experience noise nuisance per vkm on
the road, compared to the number of people that experience noise nuisance per vkm on the
railway tracks. For air cargo freight transport, no external costs have been calculated due
to lack of data.
Light commercial vehicles (LCV) are used both for freight and passenger transport.
Therefore, a comparison with other passenger or freight modes cannot be easily made.
The derivation of average costs per tkm or pkm is not feasible as it is not known which part
of the transport performance (vkm) is freight or passenger transport. Therefore, the results
for LCV are presented in €-cent per vkm (see Table 69).
158 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
Figure 16 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28: freight transport (excluding congestion)
€-ct/tkm
Habitat damage
4.0
Well-to-Tank
3.5
Noise
3.0
Climate
2.5 Air Pollution
2.0 Accidents
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
HGV Rail IWT Maritime
Freight Transport
* Maritime: average for selected EU28 ports.
159 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
Table 69 – Average external costs 2016 for EU-28
Cost category €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/vkm €-cent/tkm €-cent/tkm €-cent/tkm
Accidents 4.5 1.0 12.7 0.5 0.02 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.1
Air Pollution 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.12 0.2 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.3
Climate 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.05 2.2 2.8 0.5 0.06 0.3
Noise 0.6 0.3 9.0 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.6 n.a.
Congestion** 4.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.8 0.0 0.0
Well-to-Tank 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1
Habitat damage 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.01 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total 12.0 3.6 24.5 2.8 3.4 24.7 4.2 1.3 1.9
° Bus/coach: average for bus and coach. Aviation: average for the different distance classes.
* For aviation, the EU average costs are averages for the selected EU airports that may not be representative for all EU airports.
Table 70 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28 passenger transport by cost category and transport mode
Passenger Transport
Road Rail
Pass car - Pass car - Pass car - Bus Coach MC High speed Electric pax Diesel pax
petrol diesel total Train tot
Cost category €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm €-cent/pkm
Accidents 4.5 4.5 4.5 1.0 1.0 12.7 0.1 0.5 0.5
160 4.K83 - Handbook on the external costs of transport – January 2019 – V1.1
Air Pollution 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.01 0.80
Climate 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
Noise 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 9.0 0.3 0.8 1.4
Well-to-Tank 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1
Habitat damage 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8
Total 11.6 12.4 12.0 3.7 3.5 24.5 1.3 2.6 3.9
Freight Transport
LCV-petrol LCV-diesel HGV - total Electric freight Diesel freight Inland vessel
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Table 72 – Average external costs for selected EU28 (air)ports
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11.2.3 Average external costs per country
The results per country are presented in Table 73. It has to be noted that the accuracy level
of the disaggregated results per country is in general considerably lower than at the
aggregate EU level.
The results per country can differ for many different reasons. Some of the most important
reasons for different average costs are differences in:
— GDP per capita (PPP adjusted);
— load factors (for all transport modes);
— vehicle stock (share of efficient, low-emission vehicles);
— share of diesel and electric trains;
— electricity mix for rail;
— population density (mainly for noise and air pollution cost);
— accident risk.
Table 73 – Average external costs 2016 for EU28 by country and transport mode (excluding congestion)*
Car Bus MC Rail high Rail Rail diesel LDV HGV Rail IWT°
speed** electric
Country €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/
pkm pkm pkm pkm pkm pkm vkm tkm tkm tkm
EU28 7.8 2.9 24.5 1.3 2.6 3.9 13.1 3.4 1.3 1.9
Aggregate
Austria 12.8 3.8 69.3 2.9 8.4 16.3 4.3 3.2 2.5
Belgium 10.9 4.2 33.4 2.6 2.8 13.9 22.5 5.7 1.6 1.8
Bulgaria 5.9 2.2 43.3 5.4 5.3 8.6 2.6 1.1 0.8
Croatia 10.2 2.8 17.9 3.8 5.4 11.0 3.0 1.0 1.7
Cyprus 6.0 2.0 21.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 3.8 0.0 0.0
Czech
8.0 3.1 16.8 2.9 5.1 14.2 4.4 1.2 11.7
Republic
Denmark 5.8 2.2 21.7 2.6 2.1 9.7 4.4 0.9 0.0
Estonia 6.7 3.2 13.4 3.6 2.7 8.9 2.0 1.0 1.0
Finland 5.2 1.7 11.8 2.9 3.3 10.6 2.7 1.3 56.4
France 6.5 2.8 20.7 0.9 1.4 2.5 11.2 3.7 1.5 2.1
Germany 9.8 3.6 40.4 1.6 3.5 7.1 19.3 4.4 1.9 2.2
Greece 4.6 1.5 16.3 8.8 3.8 10.7 2.4 1.9 0.0
Hungary 9.1 2.6 21.4 4.3 5.9 18.2 3.5 0.9 2.0
Ireland 5.9 2.4 14.9 5.8 2.5 10.1 2.7 4.1 0.0
Italy 7.9 2.6 21.8 1.9 3.0 13.4 13.0 4.5 3.0 15.2
Car Bus MC Rail high Rail Rail diesel LDV HGV Rail IWT°
speed** electric
Country €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/ €-cent/
pkm pkm pkm pkm pkm pkm vkm tkm tkm tkm
Latvia 7.8 2.9 82.9 2.0 2.2 12.3 2.7 0.6 0.0
Lithuania 7.1 2.5 14.0 5.9 5.4 11.1 2.4 0.6 0.0
Luxembourg 11.8 4.6 30.6 5.6 26.9 15.9 3.2 3.7 3.7
Malta 8.8 2.6 36.4 0.0 0.0 19.4 2.3 0.0 0.0
Netherlands 8.6 4.3 23.1 1.7 1.6 2.2 16.2 3.3 1.1 1.7
Poland 7.8 2.7 23.1 5.0 4.1 8.6 2.5 1.0 20.1
Portugal 6.6 2.4 28.2 2.9 3.8 11.8 2.6 1.9 0.0
Romania 10.6 4.2 77.3 6.3 6.2 35.8 3.3 1.1 1.3
Slovakia 8.5 3.4 38.7 5.6 8.1 9.8 3.2 1.7 1.6
Slovenia 5.4 1.8 28.0 2.4 5.6 7.2 2.5 0.7 0.0
Spain 8.0 2.7 22.9 1.7 2.8 2.1 19.2 2.6 1.4 0.0
Sweden 5.4 1.8 27.7 1.9 6.5 9.5 2.7 1.6 0.0
United
6.2 4.0 30.0 1.0 1.5 2.3 9.9 3.0 0.8 5.5
Kingdom
Norway 4.4 2.7 21.4 2.8 2.8 10.6 2.8 2.4 0.0
Switzerland 9.5 3.7 56.1 2.5 3.4 21.8 6.7 4.0 1.9
* Results are presented for all countries and modes where transport acitivty is reported. Empty cells mean no
activity data.
** For rail high speed, activity is considered only in countries where high speed rail infrastructure exists (and not
for countries with only high speed service), in order to be consistent with the other reports (infrastructure
costs).
° For some countries, the reported transport performance of IWT is low, altough the inland waterway network is
still substantially large, leading to high average habitat damage costs (mainly Finland, but also Poland, Italy,
Czech Republic).
Accidents
In the first edition of the Handbook no average road accident costs were presented, only
marginal costs were provided. Costs were only presented at the country level and not
presented for an EU average in the first Handbook. The marginal costs were shown to range
from negative to positive, depending on the degree to which the average accident risk is
internalised by the transport users. The 2014 Handbook also only presented marginal costs,
and did not have average costs available. The marginal costs from the 2014 Handbook were
available for an EU average, and were all positive in the range of 0.1-0.3 €-cent per vkm
for passenger cars, 0.2-1.9 €-cent per vkm for motorcycles and 0.8-1.2 €-cent per vkm
for HGVs. This edition of the Handbook provides EU28 marginal costs ranging from
0.25-1.41 €-cent per pkm for passenger cars, -3.21-4.42 €-cent per pkm for motorcycles,
0.05-0.80 €-cent per pkm for buses and coaches, 0.37-0.84 €-cent per vkm for LCVs and
0.07-0.13 €-cent per tkm for HGVs. These figures reveal marginal costs are only negative for
vulnerable road users such as motorcycles.
This edition of the Handbook goes further and also presents average costs of 7.2, 13.3 and
15.5 €-cent per vkm for passenger cars, motorcycles and HGV respectively. In addition, this
Handbook also provides average costs for LCVs (4.1 €-cent per vkm) and buses and coaches
(18.9 €-cent per vkm).
Average accident costs for rail transport were estimated to be € 0.08-0.30 per vkm in the
first Handbook. In the second Handbook costs were € 0.20 per 1,000 tkm for freight trains
and € 0.60 per 1,000 pkm for passenger trains, taken from (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer
ISI, 2011). For a comparison with those values please see Section 11.3.2. This Handbook
presents costs of € 0.18 per vkm for high speed trains (0.06 €-cent per pkm), and € 0.52 per
vkm for all passenger trains (0.47 €-cent per pkm), roughly in line with the costs from the
first Handbook.
The accident costs for aviation (expressed per LTO) ranged from € 12-209 in the first
Handbook. In the second Handbook costs were € 0.50 per 1,000 pkm for passenger aviation,
taken from (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011). For a comparison with those values
please see Section 11.3.2. Costs per LTO range from € 12-46 in this Handbook, providing a
narrower range than the values from the first Handbook. Expressed per pkm the costs
ranged from 0.001 to 0.04 €-cent per pkm, depending on whether a flight is short-,
medium- or long haul.
Fundamental differences in the cost estimates between earlier editions of the Handbook
and the current edition can largely be explained because of the higher valuation of the
fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries (higher VSL), an overall increase in price level
(8-35% depending on which edition of the Handbook the figures are compared to), which are
to a certain extent compensated by a reduction in the accident rate. Particularly for road
accidents the latter has been noticeable, it has more than halved since the base year from
the first edition of the Handbook (2000) and declined by 19% since the base year from the
second edition of the Handbook (2010).
The differences in the cost factors used for air pollution costs is not so large, as the new
factors are based on NEEDS (updated values). An important factor for the update of the cost
factors per air pollutant is the new Value Of Life Year lost (VOLY), which is substantially
(roughly 50%) higher than in the last Handbook. Therefore, the cost factors are substantially
higher, which often overcompensates the slightly lower emission factors in the present
Handbook.
When looking at the different vehicle types, it can be said that diesel vehicles have slightly
higher air pollution cost rates than in the last study. The cost rates for petrol vehicles are
significantly higher than in the last study. In the case of LCV, the cost rates are higher for
both petrol and diesel vehicles. The cost rates for buses and coaches in the new study are
slightly lower than in the old study. The new cost rates per tkm for HGVs are also generally
lower than in the last study.
The marginal external air pollution costs for rail are significantly lower than in the last
Handbook mainly because of the different emissions data used.
For aviation, the new Handbook shows higher average external air pollution costs than the
previous study. For inland waterways, the average air pollution costs, are difficult to
compare, due to a very different set of vessel types. In general, they are slightly lower than
in the previous study.
Climate change
For most road vehicle types the average costs of climate change are slightly higher in the
present Handbook than in the previous version. The main reason for this is the higher CO 2
cost factor (100 € per tonne of CO2 eq. in the present study, compared to € 90 per tonne of
CO2 eq. in the previous Handbook).
For aviation, the new Handbook shows significantly higher average external climate costs
than the previous study. The different aircraft types are more differentiated in the new
version of the manual, but nevertheless it is clear that the average costs are higher.
Noise
No average road noise costs were presented at the country level in the first edition of the
Handbook. The second edition of the Handbook only presents illustrative average noise
costs for German motorways. These were 0.15, 0.61, 0.18, 0.48 and 0.44-0.61 €-cent per
vkm for cars, motorcycles, LCVs, buses and HGVs respectively. This Handbook’s values for
German roads are 0.5, 3.6, 0.7, 3.6 and 2.6-4.5 €-cent per vkm respectively. These values
are roughly a factor of 3-5 higher, a difference which can largely be explained because of a
No average rail noise costs were presented in either the first or second edition of the
Handbook. This is a novel aspect in this Handbook.
No average noise costs were presented for aviation in the first edition of the Handbook,
although both this edition and the second edition presented average noise costs per LTO
at the airport level. A comparison can be drawn between the airports that overlap.
For instance, at London Heathrow the average noise costs per LTO were € 652 per LTO in
the second edition of the Handbook. In this edition, the costs are € 1,549 per LTO.
Similar increases in costs can be witnessed for a number of the other major airports in
Europe, e.g. Amsterdam (from € 39 to € 118), Paris Charles de Gaulle (from € 111 to € 256)
and Frankfurt (from € 180 to € 376). In general, the trend holds for all airports in Europe,
and can be explained byby better corrections for missing data, and a higher valuation of
noise annoyance and health.
Congestion
In the previous Handbook road congestion costs were firstly estimated for UK using the
FORGE model. This model was used to quantify road congestion by estimating speed-flow
relations of UK road networks, specific to areas and road types. The FORGE model
distinguished between motorways and other roads and the results for ‘conurbations’ (other
large cities, except for London) were used as a proxy for typical metropolitan areas.
Given the level of congestion in different areas and road types, marginals cost of congestion
were estimated for the UK. Values for EU Member States were then derived by means of
value transfer.
In this edition of the Handbook, the methodology for congestion makes reference to
different conditions (i.e., road types and level of congestion) and the level of congestion is
not based on modelled results for one country only, but on observed measures for several
cities and the whole European main road network. Furthermore, a different source has been
used as reference for the Value of Time.
Importantly, the methodology adopted in the previous Handbook did not lead to the
estimation of total and average congestion costs. The social marginal congestion costs
estimated in this Handbook are also different from those of the previous version. The values
estimated in this version are for segment AC in Figure 7, according to the definition in (Li,
et al., 2016), those estimated in the previous one (i.e., the Efficient Marginal Congestion
Cost, EMCC) are for segment BD. Moreover, the methodolgy developed within this Handbook
calculates the incurred social marginal congestion cost and then estimates the generated
social margial congestion cost through a simplified approach to allow for comparability with
the other external costs. Figures and trends on congestion costs are compared with respect
to the 2011 version of the Handbook, as reported in Section 11.3.2.
In comparison with the Study on urban mobility prepared for DG Move Branningan et al.
(2016) this Handbook applies in principle the same methodological approach.
Nevertheless, different data sources are used for some input values and/or the same
information in a more recent release. In particular, the Value of Time plays a key role for
Well-to-tank emissions
The data base for well-to-tank emissions are completely new. One main reason for
differences to the previous Handbook is the slightly higher CO2 cost factor. Also, the cost
factors for air pollution are higher (mainly due to a higher VOLY).
Looking at the different vehicle types, the cost factors for passenger cars and LCV are very
similar to the previous Handbook. For trucks, the costs are higher in the present Handbook.
So, for road transport the higher cost factors are compensated by the lower emission
factors.
For rail, aviation and inland waterways the costs of well-to-tank emissions in the present
Handbook are considerably higher than in the previous one. Here, both emission and (more
important) cost factors are higher in the present Handbook.
Accidents
The total costs of accidents presented in this Handbook are very much in line with those
presented in the (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011) study. For motorcycles total
accident costs fell from € 22 billion to € 21 billion. A similar decline was visible in the total
accident costs for buses and coaches (from € 6.8 to € 5.3 billion). For the other road
transport vehicle types, there was an increase in total accident costs. For HGVs the costs
increased from € 20 to € 23 billion and for LCVs the costs increased from € 19 to
€ 20 billion. The biggest increase was visible for the total costs of accidents for passenger
cars. Costs increased from € 157 billion to € 210 billion.
In general, the trends observed for total road accident costs were echoed by the average
road accident costs. A decline was visible for motorcycles (from € 157 to € 127 per
1,000 pkm) and buses and coaches (from € 12.3 to € 9.8 per 1,000 pkm). The largest
increase was visible for passenger cars, where average costs increased from € 32 to € 45 per
1,000 pkm. The average costs for HGVs also increased from € 10 to € 13 per 1,000 tkm.
There are three major factors that explain the differences in costs between this Handbook
and the (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011) study. Firstly, a higher valuation was used
for the cost of an injury or fatality. The largest parameter is the VSL, which is used as an
input for the human costs. Because of the higher valuation of the VSL, the costs of a
fatality, serious and slight injury were increased by 98%, 130% and 133% respectively,
compared to the valuation in the (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011) study.
This effect should lead to higher costs in this Handbook in comparison with the (CE Delft,
INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011) study. Secondly, the studies look at a different price level.
The inflation that took place between 2008 and 2016 results in 2016 prices being on average
12% higher than in 2008. This effect should also result in costs in this Handbook being higher
For railway transport, the total costs of passenger rail and freight rail transport were
€ 0.2 billion and € 0.07 billion respectively in CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI, (2011).
In this current Handbook, the total costs of passenger rail transport are € 2.1 billion and
€ 0.3 billion for freight rail transport. Similarly, average costs have also increased, from
€ 0.6 to € 4.7 per 1,000 pkm for passenger rail, and from € 0.2 to € 0.7 per 1,000 tkm for
freight rail. This is a significant increase for both average and total costs which cannot
solely be explained by the increased valuation and inflation (mentioned above). In this
Handbook we use data from the European Railway Agency, from which we conclude that
there are 737 fatalities and 556 serious injuries in the EU28. The CE Delft, Infras &
Fraunhofer ISI (2011) used data from the UIC, where there were 114 fatalities and
612 serious injuries. These differences in input data explain the increased costs.
For aviation the total accident costs mentioned in CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011)
amounted to € 223 million, and the average accident costs was € 0.5 per 1,000 pkm. In this
Handbook the total costs of aviation amount to € 75 million. The difference in these
numbers can be explained by the change in scope of this study. This Handbook only looks at
33 European airports, whereas CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011) look at all airports in
the EU. For average costs the values in this Handbook are in line with CE Delft, Infras &
Fraunhofer ISI (2011) at € 0.40, € 0.10 and € 0.01 per 1,000 pkm for short, medium and
long-haul respectively.
For the two other transport modes (inland waterway transport and maritime transport)
accident costs were not calculated in the CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011) study,
which implies no comparison can be carried out.
Air pollution
The total air pollution costs for road, rail and air transport are very similar than in the last
UIC study from 2011. For LCV, the costs are substantially higher, mainly due to better
transport activity data and more recent emission factors. For inland waterways, the total
air pollutant costs are almost double as high resulting from more recent transport acticity
data and emission factors.
The average air pollution costs are on a similar level than in the UIC study from 2011.
The main reasons for differences are the completely new set of emission factors, the new
Value Of Life Year lost (VOLY), which is substantially (roughly 50%) higher than in the UIC
study.
Climate change
The UIC study analysed the external climate costs using a low and a high scenario.
The difference between the two scenarios was the climate cost factor which at that time
ranged between € 42 and € 146. In the current study, a climate cost factor of € 100 is used.
The two studies cannot be compared with each other on this point. In general however, it
can be said that today’s average external climate costs lie between the high and low
scenarios of the previous UIC study.
In general, the trends observed for total road noise costs were echoed by the average road
noise costs. Average costs increased by a factor 6 (from € 14.4 to € 89.7 per 1,000 pkm) and
4 (from € 1.7 to € 5.5 per 1,000 pkm) for motorcycles and passenger cars respectively.
Increases in average costs of a factor of 3 and 2 were observed for HGVs and buses/coaches
respectively, mirroring the increases in total costs.
There are three major factors, apart from the different price levels (price year 2016 vs.
price year 2008), that explain the differences in costs between this Handbook and the
CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011) study. Firstly, a higher valuation was used for the
cost of noise, in particular for the noise annoyance. New in this Handbook is the increased
valuation with higher noise levels, this results in substantially higher costs per person
annoyed in each noise bin. This explains part of the higher noise costs in this Handbook
compared to CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011) study. Secondly, this study uses the
noise maps from 2012, which are more recent than the ones used in CE Delft, Infras &
Fraunhofer ISI (2011). It is likely that the increased urbanisation that took place over this
period implies that more people are now exposed to (higher) noise levels, which results in
higher noise costs in this Handbook compared to CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011).
Thirdly, the noise maps are incomplete as there are agglomerations and countries with a
reporting obligation that may not provide data. Furthermore, only some agglomerations
have a reporting obligation, for agglomerations without a reporting obligation noise costs
are not taken into account. Previous studies have attempted to correct the data for this
effect, but this edition of the Handbook carries out a better and more detailed correction.
This is a further reason for the noise costs being higher in this Handbook than in CE Delft,
Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011).
For railway noise the total costs of passenger rail and freight rail transport were
€ 0.5 billion each in CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011). In this current Handbook, the
total noise costs of passenger rail transport are € 3.9 billion and € 2.5 billion for freight rail
transport. Similarly, average costs have also increased, from € 1.2 per 1,000 pkm to € 3.2,
€ 8.0 and € 13.8 per 1,000 pkm for high speed, electric and diesel passenger trains
respectively. For freight rail costs increased form € 1.0 to € 6.5 and € 4.5 per 1,000 tkm for
electric and diesel freight trains respectively. This increase is roughly in line with the
increase in total costs. The costs have thus increased by a factor of 6 to 9 in between the
studies, which can be explained by the fact that the previous study incorporated a rail
bonus, whereas the current Handbook does not. As a result, higher rail costs prevail.
For aviation the total noise costs mentioned in CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011)
amounted to € 0.5 billion, and the average noise costs were € 1.0 per 1,000 pkm. In this
Handbook the total noise costs of aviation amount to € 0.84 billion. The increase in total
costs is relatively small compared to the other modes. This can be explained by the change
in scope of this study. This Handbook only looks at total noise from 33 European airports,
whereas (CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011) look at all airports in the EU. For average
costs the values in this Handbook are differentiated to distance, with short, medium and
For the two other transport modes (inland waterway transport and maritime transport) no
noise costs were calculated in either study, as the noise exposure is considered negligible or
non-existent as it usually takes place in sparsely populated areas. Furthermore, data on
noise exposure from these modes is not available.
Congestion
The methodology and the measures of road congestion costs presented in this Handbook are
similar to those applied in (CE Delft, Infras & Fraunhofer ISI (2011).
Furthermore, also the total costs of congestion presented in this Handbook are largely in
line with the range of costs presented in the 2011 version of the Handbook (CE Delft, Infras
and Fraunhofer ISI, 2011). For passenger cars both delay cost and deadweight loss are about
20%-25% higher than the maximum (i.e., € 196 billion versus € 161 billion for delay cost and
€ 33.5 billion versus € 26 billion for DWL, respectively). Total costs are about 45% lower
than the minimum value for HGVs (€ 14.6 million in this version of the Handbook versus
€ 26.7 billion for delay cost and € 2.5 billion in this version of the Handbook versus € 4.3
billion for DWL), while for LCVs the total cost estimated in this Handbook are doubled with
respect to the maximum reported in the 2011 version (€ 55.5 billion versus € 27.6 billion for
delay cost and € 9.4 billion versus € 4.5 billion for DWL). The use of the different Value of
Time can explain part of the different estimations.
𝑌𝐿𝐿 = 𝑁 × 𝐿
Where:
N = number of deaths due to an illness
L = standard life expectance at the age of death in years
Table 74 illustrates the most recent disability weights associated with a number of illnesses.
The same disability weights are used for everyone living a year in a specified health state
(WHO, 2018). The most recent disability weights are determined using data gathered from
thousands of respondents from all over the world, rather than expert judgement.
A large study conducted on behalf of the European Commission investigated whether the
theoretical assumptions underlying the QALY could be validated by an experiment eliciting
respondents’ preferences (Beresniak, et al., 2015). The results suggested that most critical
________________________________
46
The utility weight and disability weight are inversely related concepts. For instance, if the disability weight is
0.33, then the utility weight is 1 - 0.33 = 0.67.
47
Please see (CE Delft, 2017) for a full discussion.
Definition
The Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) is also known as the Value of a Prevented Fatality
(VPF). There are two main ways in which the VSL can be calculated: labour market studies
or willingness-to-pay (WTP) studies. In general, US estimates of the VSL are based on wage
risk studies, whereas it is more common in Europe to calculate the VSL based on WTP. The
VSL is the amount of money that a community of people are willing to pay to lower the risk
of an anonymous instantaneous premature death within that community. It can be
calculated by dividing the amount people are willing to pay by the change in mortality risk.
Labour market studies or wage risk studies in particular identify the amount of financial
compensation needed to accept a job with a higher mortality rate. This serves as the basis
for the calculation of the VSL. In general, a VSL that is calculated based on wage risk
studies is much higher than a VSL calculated based on WTP studies. For instance the current
recommended VSL is € 6.9 million ($ 9.2 million) in the U.S. and € 4.1 million in Canada
(partly based on WTP and partly on labour market studies). European VSLs, based on WTP
methods, are more commonly found in between € 1-2 million. There are indications that
labour market studies tend to overestimate the VSL because of the cognitive bias in
individuals to overestimate small risks and underestimate large risks.
Literature
For a good overview of different VSL studies up to 2007 we refer to (Andersson & Treich,
2009). For a more recent overview of VSL values we refer to (Ecoplan, 2016) (and Table 75
below).
Table 75 presents an overview of the main studies that have recently been published.
The table consists of values from country-specific studies, as well as broader European
studies. The most recent, high quality meta-analysis was conducted by the (OECD, 2012).
The (OECD, 2012) study is the largest meta–analysis of stated preference VSL studies to date
and uses 261 VSL values from 28 studies conducted in OECD countries. The recommended
VSL for OECD countries is $ 3 million (range: $ 1.5-4.5 million, 2005 prices), and the
recommended EU27 value is $ 3.6 million (2005 dollars), with a range of $ 1.8-5.4 million.
This EU27 value is based on 16 European studies in the OECD meta-analysis. However,
because this value is elicited from a narrower base, it is arguably more uncertain. For those
reasons (Ecoplan, 2016) recommend using the OECD country value of $ 3 million and
adjusting it to individual country situations. If we use the OECD value it translates to an
EU28 VSL of € 3.6 million (2016 prices). The OECD study was published before the previous
edition of the Handbook, yet its values were not used. This was because “the OECD meta-
analysis only reports an EU-wide VSL figure and does not include values for each Member
State”. Although this is true, the OECD study does provide guidance on how country specific
values for the VSL can be calculated.
As Table 75 shows, studies have calculated the VSL values for different circumstances, such
as a life lost through air pollution, a traffic accident, during sports or household work.
Some scholars have argued that a life lost under one circumstance (e.g. traffic accident)
should not be valued the same as a life lost under a different circumstance. For instance,
(B,S,S. Volkswirtschaftliche Beratung AG, 2015) conducted a stated preference study with
3000 respondents and identified a VSL of 4.5 million CHF, 30.6 million CHF and 10.5 million
CHF for lives lost in road traffic accidents, rail traffic accidents and lives lost due to noise
or air pollution respectively. In the past, a VSL identified in one context was frequently
used in a completely different context using benefits transfer methods, for instance (Keall,
It is important to note that the VSL is not constant over one’s lifetime (Aldy & Viscusi,
2004); (Carlsson, et al., 2010). Its value peaks around the age of 30-50, after which it starts
to decline. There are a number of factors that contribute to this phenomenon. A higher
education and a higher income positively contribute to a higher valuation of the VSL, both
of which tend to rise (to some extent) with age. In addition, adults are valued most highly
because of the important role they have in the family and society, in terms of caring for
children and the elderly. (Aldy & Viscusi, 2004) show that the VSL of a 60-year-old is roughly
half of the VSL of a 30 or 40-year-old. This echoes the trend in life expectancy. The life
expectancy of a 60-year-old is half of the life expectancy of a 30-year-old. Another issue
related to age and the VSL is how to value the lives of children. Carlsson, et al., (2010)
show that the VSL of children is valued 1.4 times higher than the VSL of 35 to 45-year-old
adults, and 3.3 times higher than the VSL of 65 to 75-year-olds. Studies such as (Ricardo-
AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014; HEIMTSA, 2011; UBA & IER, 2014) recommend adjusting
the VSL by a factor 1.5 to reach the VSL for children. In Norway, the VSL of children is
valued at twice the regular VSL.
In this Handbook, we use the VSL based on the OECD meta-analysis, with a value of
€ 3.6 million for the EU28. We do not differentiate it to different age groups in this study,
although we do recommend the use of an age differentiated VSL if detailed data on e.g. the
age of accident victims is available.
Definition
The Value of a Life Year (VOLY) is sometimes known as the Value of One Year Lost.
The VOLY is the amount of money that people are willing to pay for one year of additional
life expectancy (CONCAWE, 2006). Arguably, the VOLY is the correct metric to use in
circumstances of non-instantaneous death (IER, 2004) (EC, 2005). In theory the VOLY is
related to the VSL, as the VSL can be seen as a discounted sum of annual VOLY-values
(CE Delft, 2018).
𝑇
𝑎𝑃𝑖
𝑉𝑆𝐿 = 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑌 ∑
(1 + 𝑟)𝑖−𝑎
𝑖=𝑎
𝑎 = average age of the person whose VOLY we are interested in (40 years)
𝑟 = discount rate
The precise relationship between the VOLY and the VSL is hard to pinpoint as they measure
fundamentally different things. The VSL attaches a monetary value to an instant death,
whereas the VOLY measures the value attached to one additional year of life expectancy.
The VOLY is a proxy for the valuation at the end of one’s life, whereas the VSL represents
the valuation in the middle of your life. It is therefore not surprising that the literature
does not reveal a fixed relationship between the VSL and the VOLY. The relationship is not
linear in the sense that one cannot take the average life expectancy and multiply it by the
VOLY to reach the VSL. As both the VSL and the VOLY values are based on meta-analysis of
studies looking at the individual measure in question, it would be unwise to link the two
together as they measure fundamentally different things.
Literature
The literature has suggested a range of different values for the VOLY, of which an overview
is provided in Table 76. VOLYs are presented in original prices as well as 2016 prices, where
corrections for inflation and growth in GDP per capita were made.
Although the VOLY can be directly derived from the VSL as mentioned in the section above,
there is a debate on whether or not that is appropriate in certain contexts. For valuing the
life-years of instantaneous deaths, using a VOLY derived from the VSL is logical, as the VSL
is elicited based on changes in mortality risk. For non-instantaneous mortality, using a VOLY
directly derived from the VSL is arguably comparing apples and oranges. For instance, the
NEEDS project argues that VOLYs derived from the VSL overestimate the WTP to reduce
health impacts of air pollution and noise. Therefore, the NEEDS VOLY frames the WTP
questions to elicit the value of a change in life expectancy, rather than a change in
mortality rate. For non-instantaneous deaths (e.g. deaths as a result of air pollution),
this is a better method because air pollution affects the life expectancy, rather than the
mortality rate. The NEEDS project recommended a VOLY of € 40,000, with € 25,000-
€ 100,000 (2006 prices) as confidence intervals (NEEDS, 2006b; Desaigues, et al., 2011).
This value is based on surveys conducted in France, Spain, the UK, Denmark, Germany,
Switzerland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, with a total sample size of 1,463.
The previous edition of the Handbook (Ricardo-AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014) uses
(and updates) the NEEDS value (€ 43,000 in 2010 prices, range € 27,000-€ 130,000).
Similar values are presented in (ExternE, 2005), where a value of € 50.000 per VOLY (2005
prices) is recommended. (HEIMTSA, 2011) advises values that are higher, in the range of
€ 60,000-€ 90,000 (2010 prices). The VOLY-value used by the European Commission for
health damages as a result of environmental pollution in the impact assessment reports is
€ 50,000-€ 100,000. Likewise, VOLY values are recommended in (CE Delft, 2017) ranging
from € 50,000-€ 100,000, with a central value of € 70,000 (2015 prices). The French
government recommends a VOLY of € 115,000 (2010 prices) for use in cost benefit analysis
(Quinet et al., 2013). Slightly higher values are presented in (Holland, 2014), where the
median and mean VOLY values are € 58,000 and € 135,000 respectively (2005 prices).
However, it should be noted that the values mentioned in (Holland, 2014) are based on
(NewExt, 2004), where the willingness to pay was elicited from questions framed around
changes in mortality rate, rather than changes in life expectancy. This is not appropriate if
the VOLY is used for non-instantaneous deaths.
Other literature has presented us with values both near the lower end of the confidence
interval, as well as near the higher end. It has, for example, been argued that the
distribution of VOLY-values elicited from stated preference studies is broadly spread and
skewed, which implies that using the mean or median values is not a robust approach.
A ‘maximised societal revenue’ value is arguably better (Concawe et al., 2012).
________________________________
48
Adjustments were made for inflation and growth in GDP per capita, using an income elasticity of 0.8.
Recent criticism of stated preference studies revolves around the fact that estimates are an
underestimation of the true value if they only take the effect on one’s own life expectancy
into account (Mouter & Chorus, 2015). In France, a WTP study revealed that many people
want cleaner air, not only for themselves but also for friends and family (Chanel & Luchini,
2014). If the effects on loved ones is also taken into account, the VOLY could increase to
€ 140,000 in 2001 prices (Chanel & Luchini, 2014).
Furthermore, studies have shown that the method with which the study is administered
affects the height of the valuation. Questionnaires administered via websites lead to
3-5 times lower values than questionnaires that are administered face-to-face (Istamto et
al., 2014). Furthermore, in general discrete choice experiments lead to a higher VOLY-value
than WTP studies (such as NEEDS) (Bijlenga, et al., 2011).
Taking all of the above into consideration, our literature review has revealed that an EU28
VOLY of € 70,000 (2016 prices) is not unreasonable. Excluding outliers we can see two peaks
in the distribution of VOLY values. The first peak around € 65,000 and the second peak
around € 130,000. As we know that the distribution of values for the valuation of health is
skewed, with median values lower than the mean values, we propose the use of € 70,000
(2016 prices) as a central EU28 VOLY. We will adjust this EU28 VOLY to national VOLYs, the
same way we do for the VSL.
There are three main ways to allocate the total external accident costs (the sum of the
aforementioned components) to the different vehicle categories. This can be done based on
the responsibility perspective, the monitoring perspective or the damage potential
perspective.
— Monitoring: The monitoring perspective involves allocating the casualties of an accident
to the vehicle type they were using when the accident occurred. In case of an accident
between a car and a truck where two individuals seated in the car die and the truck
driver sustains an injury, the two fatalities would be allocated to the car and the injury
would be allocated to the truck. This is the classic way in which accident statistics are
reported.
— Responsibility: The responsibility perspective involves allocating the costs of the
accident to the party responsibly for causing the accident. This method would imply
that if the truck in the above example was responsible for causing the accident, both
fatalities and the injury would be allocated to the truck. No costs would be allocated to
the passenger car. This is arguably the fairest way to allocate the accident costs.
Unfortunately, accident statistics at the EU level do not contain information on
responsibility, although some national databases do (e.g. Germany).
— Damage potential: This perspective involves allocating all victims in a certain vehicle to
the other vehicle involved in the accident. This approach is favoured over the other two
methods for two reasons. Firstly, the accident statistics with differentiations on
responsibility are not available for all countries within the scope of this study.
Secondly, as argued by (CE Delft & VU Amsterdam, 2004) the ‘responsibility’ for an
accident in a moral and causative sense does not only lie with the party ‘in error’, but
may also lie with the party that, legally speaking, did not commit an error at al.
After all, certain activities undertaken by society are accompanied by a certain intrinsic
risk, even if no ‘error’ was made. Thus, even if vehicle drivers comply to traffic
regulations, there is still the mutual danger to which drivers continually expose each
other. The heavier and faster a vehicle, the bigger its damage potential, as it exposes
other road users to greater danger. In our example, the costs of the two fatalities that
fell in the car would be allocated to the truck, and the injury in the truck would be
allocated to the car.
This study employs the intrinsic risk perspective for accidents occurring within road
transport. For accidents between different modes, such as accidents involving a train and a
car, the casualties are allocated according to the responsibility perspective. In this study,
these types of accidents only occur between road and rail, at level crossings. For these
types of accidents it is known that they are almost always caused by the road user (Jonsson
& Björklund, 2015).
The previous Handbooks use the VSL as a proxy for the human costs. Fatalities were valued
at the full VSL. Serious injuries were valued at 13% of the VSL, and slight injuries were
valued at 1% of the VSL.
Direct and indirect economic costs for fatalities were valued at 10% of the VSL. These costs
were considered fully external. Furthermore, both previous editions of the Handbook did
not calculate the total and average costs of IWT accidents and maritime accidents.
According to international guidelines for estimating costs of road crashes (Alfaro, et al.,
1994) (Wijnen, et al., 2017) there are three types of methods that can be used to estimate
the costs of road crashes. Each of the components of accident costs outlined above can be
estimated using one of these three methodologies, which are described below.
— Restitution costs (RC) approach: This approach identifies the costs of the resources
that would be needed to restore accident victims and their families and friends to the
situation where the accident hadn’t happened. In general, these costs can be
interpreted as the direct costs from a crash, such as the costs of medical treatment and
vehicle repair (ERSO, 2006). This is the appropriate method to estimate medical costs,
material damages and administrative costs according to international guidelines.
— Human capital (HC) approach: This approach measures the value for society of the
productive capacities that are lost in road accidents. This is usually based on the added
value that a person produces for society. This is the appropriate method to estimate
production losses according to international guidelines.
— Willingness to pay (WTP) approach: This method estimates costs based on the amount
that individuals are willing to pay for a risk reduction. Based on WTP studies, the value
of a statistical life (VSL) can be estimated, which can be used to calculate human costs
(or risk value) of fatalities. As there is no market price for immaterial impacts such as
the risk value, this method is the appropriate method for calculating the risk value.
As we assume that material damages and other costs are fully internalised through relevant
insurances (see Chapter 3) we will not discuss them in detail in this section.
Fatalities
Two approaches can be used to determine the willingness to pay for a reduction in the
risk of getting killed in an accident, the ‘stated preference’ (SP) method or ‘revealed
preference’ (RP) method. The results of either study can be used to derive the VSL, the
value attached to a (prevented) fatality. The difference between RP and SP studies is that
RP values risk reductions on the basis of actual behaviour, such as through the purchasing
decisions of safety provisions (e.g. airbags, seatbelts). In SP methods, questionnaires are
presented to individuals, in which they are asked directly or indirectly how much they are
willing to pay for safety, from which a VSL can be deduced (see Annex A).
The most recent literature, e.g. (Wijnen, et al., 2017) recommends the SP method as the
most appropriate and scientifically sound approach to estimate the VSL in the context of
road safety. One of the main advantages of the SP method is that it is not dependent on
information on actual consumer behaviour, and therefore can be applied more broadly than
RP. As consumers are usually not fully aware of the risk reduction resulting from safety
devices, SP provides an edge over RP. This is because the former allows for the provision of
this information, helping respondents to understand (small) risk reductions in the correct
manner. These above reasons explain why SP methods are most commonly used in the
context of road safety in Europe. In regions outside of Europe, particularly in North-
America, RP methods are more commonly used (Lindhjem, et al., 2010). A more detailed
discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of SP can be found in (De Blaeij, et al.,
2003).
It is important to note that literature on the VSL takes a cautious approach and assumes the
VSL that elicited from people’s WTP for safety includes both human costs and the future
consumption that is lost when people abruptly lose their life. Therefore, to avoid double
counting with gross production loss (gross production loss consists of net production loss and
consumption loss), the consumption loss needs to be subtracted from the VSL to reach
human costs, or net production loss (instead of gross production loss) should be used.49
In this study we subtract the consumption loss from the VSL to avoid this double counting.
The consumption loss of fatalities that we use in our calculations is based on the number of
life years lost and annual (market) consumption from Eurostat.50
________________________________
49 See section on production loss in Section B.3.2 for more information.
50 Eurostat data reveals that the average age of someone sustaining an injury in a road accident is roughly 40.
In the EU28 a person aged 40 in 2016 is expected to live for another 42 years. The average consumption
expenditure per capita in the EU was € 15,900 in 2016. Therefore, the consumption loss of a fatality in the
EU28 can be calculated by multiplying the annual consumption loss with the number of life years lost
(€ 15,900 * 42 years = € 667,800). This consumption loss needs to be deducted from the EU28 VSL to reach the
EU28 human costs of a fatality (€ 3.6 - € 0.7 = € 2.9 million). This exercise is carried out with consumption
expenditures differentiated to the national level, resulting in human costs at the national level.
In this Handbook we follow the international guidelines and use the WTP approach to
estimate the VSL, which is an input for the human costs of fatalities. We deduct the
consumption loss from the VSL to reach the human costs of fatalities (see paragraph on
production loss). In line with earlier editions of the Handbook, we assume that drivers
completely internalise their own (potential) human costs, but that the human costs of the
other traffic participants are 100% external to them (see Chapter 3).
Injuries
The WTP approach can not only be applied to the human costs of fatalities, but also to
calculate the human costs of injuries. However, it must be noted that because of the
diversity in severity and duration of the consequences of injuries, the human costs of
injuries can be very diverse (CE Delft, 2016; InDeV, 2016). A simple way to express the
human costs of injuries is as a percentage of the VSL. This was first developed in (HEATCO,
2006) and (UNITE, 2003), where human costs were assumed to be 13% of the VSL for serious
injuries and 1% of the VSL for slight injuries.
For an overview of the percentages of VSL that the literature recommends for different
injury categories, we refer to the table below, which is based and builds on (Sommer, et
al., 2007). It is important to note that direct comparisons between most studies are not
ideal, because many studies differ in their definition of a ‘serious’ or ‘slight’ injury.
The table shows more detailed injury categories than we use in this Handbook.
Table 77 – Overview of the literature on percentages of the VSL used for serious and slight injuries
There is almost no literature available on valuing the human costs of injuries according to the new EU
definition. One study that we found looking at the valuation of MAIS categories is (Blincoe, 2015). This study
presents an average valuation of quality of life lost to crash victims for all 6 MAIS categories. However, this
method is based on QALYs lost through traffic injuries, rather than on the WTP method to approximate the
To approximate values for the human costs of the traffic injuries based on the new MAIS classification, we
express the costs of all other injury categories as a percentage of MAIS 6 (fatality) based on (Blincoe, 2015).
We can then use these percentages of the fatality value as a proxy for the other injury categories and apply it to
our valuation of the human costs of a fatality (with consumption loss already deducted). The table below shows
the human costs of the MAIS injury categories according to this method . Please note that this is a very rough
first estimate, which certainly deserved further research in the future.
Table 78 – Overview of human costs for new EU injury definition, EU28 aggregate value
A second way to measure the human costs of injuries is based on Disability Adjusted Life
Years (DALYs). DALYs are a measure for impact of injuries on quality of life that combines
impact on mortality (fatalities) and morbidity (injuries). An estimate of the monetary value
of a DALY can be made based on the willingness to pay for quality of life (see for example
(Bobinac, et al., 2013)) or based on the VSL (see for example (Hirth, et al., 2000)).
Studies show that the monetary value of a DALY in the Netherlands can be found in the
range of € 60,000-€ 80,000 (RIVM, 2014; RVZ, 2006), although there have also been studies
suggesting the value exceeds € 100,000 (RIVM, 2006). The major advantage of the DALY
approach is that it takes into account the impact of injuries on quality of life, whereas the
WTP studies looking at injuries often use a very limited number of broad injury categories
from which the valuation of injuries is elicited. However, to date, the only studies that
have used DALYs to calculate the human cost of injuries have been conducted in the US
(Blincoe et al., 2014).
For the reasons mentioned above, this Handbook values the human costs of injuries using
the WTP method at 13% of the VSL for serious injuries and 1% of the VSL for slight injuries.
Although the consumption pattern of an injured person may change for the time that they
are injured, it does not completely disappear (unlike for fatalities). Therefore, we do not
subtract any consumption loss from the human costs for injured people.
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51
Please note the subtle difference between the AIS and the MAIS.
In (Wijnen, et al., 2017) information on the social medical costs of road crashes in 31
European countries was collected. Subsequently, a standard value for the medical costs is
calculated according to the recommended method from the international guidelines.
These standard values are € 5,430 for fatalities, € 16,719 for serious injuries and € 1,439 for
slight injuries (2015 prices). These costs are the total medical costs. However, part of the
medical costs are internalised through health insurance. Unfortunately, there is no EU-wide
data available on the percentage of health care costs that are covered by insurance. In the
Netherlands, 65% of the medical costs is insured and therefore internalised, whereas 35% is
external (CE Delft & VU, 2014). In Switzerland medical costs are 90% external (Ecoplan &
Infras, 2014). Due to lack of more detailed EU data on this and the fact that medical costs
are a relatively minor cost component, we assume that 50% of the medical costs are
internalised, resulting in 50% that is external. To calculate medical costs at the country
level we update the costs provided in (Wijnen, et al., 2017) to the 2016 level and apply a
PPP correction per country.
Administrative costs
There are four major component of administrative costs: police and fire service costs,
insurance costs and legal costs.
The police and fire service costs can be calculated using a bottom-up methodology or a
top-down methodology. The bottom-up approach multiplies the costs per unit (e.g. police
costs per hour or fire service costs per crash) by the time spent on a crash or the number of
crashes. The top-down approach estimates the share of costs related to transport accidents
of the total police or fire service costs. This is done using information on police or fire
service time spent on transport accidents. Both methodologies are theoretically sound.
The administrative costs for vehicle insurance or health insurance relate to the cost of
personnel handling claims, including overhead costs. These costs need to be attributed to
transport accidents, because no insurance would be needed if there were no road
accidents. The administrative insurance costs can be deduced from insurance branch
statistics. Alternatively, the insurance costs can be calculated from the costs that are
specifically related to handling insurance claims from traffic accidents. This would be done
based on the number of claims and the costs per claim.
Wijnen, et al., (2017) collected information on the total administrative costs of road
crashes in 31 European countries. Based on the recommended methods from international
guidelines (Alfaro, et al., 1994), a standard value for the administrative costs was presented
for fatalities (€ 6,346), serious injuries (€ 4,364) and slight injuries (€ 1,876) (2015 prices).
These costs are the total administrative costs. In this study we look at external
administrative costs (i.e. the part that is not internalised through insurance).
Unfortunately, there is no EU-wide data available on the percentage of administrative
accident costs that are covered by insurance. In the Netherlands, 84% of the administrative
cost is insured, whereas only 16% is external (CE Delft & VU, 2014). In Switzerland
administrative costs are 44% external (ARE, 2018). Due to lack of more detailed EU data on
this and the fact that administrative costs are a relatively minor cost component, we
assume that 70% of the administrative costs are internalised, resulting in 30% that is
external. To calculate administrative costs at the country level we update the (Wijnen, et
al., 2017) costs to the 2016 level and apply a PPP correction per country.
Production losses
International guidelines recommend the human capital approach as the appropriate method
to calculate the production loss. This implies the market production loss of a casualty can
be calculated by multiplying the valuation of production per person per unit of time, by the
time that the person is unable to work due to the accident. For fatalities the period of time
the person is unable to work due to an accident is the remaining number of productive
years until retirement. For injured casualties, the remaining period may vary from a few
days of absence at work, to all remaining productive years until retirement in the case of a
person becoming permanently disabled as a result of the accident.
One major methodological discussion which arises in estimating production losses is whether
actual or potential production losses should be used. It is important to note that potential
production losses are commonly used to measure production losses (Wijnen, et al., 2017;
Wijnen & Stipdonk, 2016). This implies that the capacity to produce is what is valued,
regardless of what someone actually produces. This approach is considered a better
measure, because it is not sensitive to macro-economic conditions (e.g. labour markets or
unemployment rates). Gross national/domestic product per capita, or income are
frequently used as an indication for production losses.
Production losses also encompass non-market production loss, e.g. voluntary work. This loss
can be estimated using a shadow price that reflects the value of time (usually based on
wages) and information on the time spent on household work, child care, etc. However,
adding non-market production losses to potential production losses implies there is a risk of
double counting production losses. This is because unemployed people may be more
involved in non-market production. It is not usually common practice to explicitly include
non-market production losses in these costs.
In this Handbook, we use gross production loss and base the values on (Wijnen, et al.,
2017), where a standard value for the production loss was calculated based on data from
31 European countries. The standard value for production losses of € 655,376, € 43,627 and
€ 2,669 for fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries respectively (2015 prices) (Wijnen,
et al., 2017). The production loss is considered partly internalised. In a study looking at
external costs in Switzerland around 55% of the production loss was considered external
(Ecoplan & Infras, 2014). This percentage is also used in this Handbook. To calculate costs
of production loss at the country level we update the costs from (Wijnen, et al., 2017) costs
to the 2016 level and apply a PPP correction.
B.3.3 Conclusions
The different cost components of accident costs are each calculated using the approach
suggested by international guidelines.
— Human costs: These costs are calculated based on the WTP value of the VSL. The EU28
VSL is € 3.6 million and is based on the (OECD, 2012) and differentiated to the country
level (see Annex A). To reach the human costs, the consumption loss is deducted from
the VSL. The consumption loss is based on annual market consumption and life years
lost through the accident. Drivers consider all human costs of individuals inside their
vehicle as fully internal, but the human costs of individuals in other vehicles as fully
external.
— Medical costs: These costs are based on values presented in (Wijnen, et al., 2017),
which are calculated using the restitution costs method. 50% of the medical costs is
assumed to not be covered by insurance and is therefore considered external.
— Administrative costs: These costs are based on values presented in (Wijnen, et al.,
2017). 50% of the medical costs is assumed to not be covered by insurance and is
therefore considered external.
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52
See section on human costs in Section B.3.2 for more information.
Compared to earlier editions of the Handbook, this Handbook includes a more detailed
breakdown of the non-human costs of accidents. In earlier editions they were all grouped
and assumed to be 10% of the VSL. However, this edition of the Handbook breaks them
down into their individual components and calculates them based on the recommended
international guidelines.
Marginal accident costs are only calculated for road transport. Rail, aviation, inland
waterway and maritime marginal accident costs are assumed to be equal to the average
accident costs, as these modes are scheduled services. This implies that the size of the
traffic flow is not a determinant in the accident costs. This is in contrast to road transport
where the accident risk is highly dependent on how busy a certain road is.
In the second edition of the Handbook (2014) the aforementioned approach was formalised
in the following formula.
𝜕𝑟𝑖𝑣 𝑄𝑖𝑣
𝐸𝑖𝑣 =
𝜕𝑄𝑣𝑖 𝑟𝑖𝑣
Where:
𝑟𝑖𝑣 = The accident risk for each vehicle type (v) and road type (i)
𝑋𝑖𝑣 = The number of fatality or injury cases for each vehicle type (v) and road type (i)
𝑄𝑣𝑖 = The number of vehicle kilometres for each vehicle type (v) and road type (i)
(Social) Marginal costs can be expressed as a function of the costs per accident, the
accident risk and the risk elasticity. The latter two terms may be dependent on the vehicle
and road type, as certain vehicle or road types may be more or less dangerous than others.
To reach external marginal costs, the share of the costs that are internal still needs to be
deducted from the social marginal costs, this is done in the second half of the formula.
The risk elasticity (𝐸 ) that was used in the 2014 Handbook was a conservative estimate of
-0.25, irrespective of the vehicle and road type. This was based on (Lindberg, 2001; TML,
2010). The degree of risk internalisation (𝜃) that was used in the 2014 Handbook differs per
vehicle type, see table below.
Table 79 – Overview of values used in 2014 Handbook for the degree of risk internalisation for marginal costs
For the risk elasticity it was common practice to use the same risk elasticity parameter for
each of the road types in the previous Handbooks. The value was -0.25, a value which was
not differentiated according to vehicle type or road type (Lindberg, 2001; TML, 2010).
This implies an increase in vehicle kilometres of 1% has the same effect on the average
accident rate, regardless if this is because of trucks or motorcycles, and regardless of
whether it occurs on motorways, urban roads or other roads. Although some authors have
argued that the elasticities should be corrected for each vehicle type’s traffic share,
e.g. (Fridstrom, 2011), such studies have only been carried out at the national level and
cannot be generalised to other countries. Similarly, a Swiss study by (Sommer et al., 2002)
showed that risk elasticities can be differentiated to road types. For this national study, risk
elasticities were found to be -0.5, -0.25 and -0.62 for motorway, urban and other roads
respectively. All risk elasticities used in the previous Handbook are negative, implying that
an increase in traffic (measured in vehicle kilometres) leads to reduction in the accident
risk. This is caused by two opposing effects. Firstly, an increase in traffic exposes more
drivers to the possibility of an accident, which should increase the accident rate. However,
average traffic speed also decreases with more traffic, which reduces the possibility of an
accident. The results from the study by (Sommer et al., 2002; Lindberg, 2001) confirm that
the latter effect is larger than the former, implying an increase in traffic leads to a
reduction in the accident risk. Arguably in locations where the speed is already slow
For the human costs, (𝑎 + 𝑏) in the equation presented above, we base our calculations on
a different VSL than the 2014 Handbook. The new VSL values are significantly higher than
those presented in the 2014 Handbook. A more detailed discussion on the VSL can be found
in Annex A.
The degree of risk internalisation can be based on the literature (as was done in the
previous 2014 Handbook, see Table 78), but can also be calculated if detailed data on
accidents are available. The latter is the approach taken in this Handbook. This approach
was developed by (Lindberg, 2001) and assumes that a part of the accident risk is
internalised, which can be estimated by dividing the number of fatalities inside a certain
vehicle type by the number of fatalities in accidents involving this vehicle type (and
therefore also counting victims inside other types of vehicles involved in the accidents).
Based on the CARE database, such detailed data is available, and is used to calculate the
degree of risk internalisation in this Handbook, which results in the internalisation factors
as shown in Table 11.
B.4.3 Conclusions
This Handbook uses the approach as outlined by the 2014 Handbook, but updates the input
values that were used in the 2014 Handbook. The VSL used is taken from the (OECD, 2012)
(EU28 value of € 3.6 million in 2016 prices) and differentiated to the country level (see
Annex A). The other cost components are taken from (Wijnen, et al., 2017). The risk
elasticity is set at -0.25 for motorways and other roads, which is identical to the value
presented in the previous Handbook and (Lindberg, 2001; TML, 2010), and set at 0 for urban
roads, conform (CE Delft & VU, 2014). This value is set to be the same, regardless of vehicle
type. The degree of risk internalisation is differentiated to vehicle type, calculated from
the CARE database. This accident risk per vehicle type is also calculated based on the CARE
database and the transport performance data.
— Crop losses: Ozone as secondary air pollutant (mainly caused by the emission of NO x and
VOC) and other acidic air pollutants (e.g. SO2 , NOx) can lead to damage of agricultural
crops. As a consequence, an increased concentration of ozone and other substances can
lead to lower crop yield (e.g. for wheat).
— Material and building damage: Air pollutants can mainly lead to two types of damage of
buildings and other materials: a) pollution of building surfaces through particles and
dust; b) damage of building facades and materials due to corrosion processes, caused by
acidic substances (e.g. nitrogen oxides NOx or sulphur oxide SO2 ).
— Biodiversity loss: Air pollutants can lead to damage of ecosystems. The most important
damages are a) the acidification of soil, precipitation and water (e.g. by NO x, SO2 ) and b)
the eutrophication of ecosystems (e.g. by NOx, NH3 ). Damages at ecosystems can lead to
a decrease in biodiversity (fauna, flora).
The overall framework adopted for the estimation of the damage cost of pollutants is
schematically summarized in the following figure.
Intervention Impacts
Measure Emission Concentration Damage €
(endpoints)
Nuisance, resources
A given activity leads to emissions. In the case of transport emissions, these emissions are
primarily emissions to the air (a certain amount of tyre wear can end up as emissions to
soils or water, but these have not been taken into account in this Handbook).
These emissions are subsequently transported through the atmosphere to other regions
where they are added to existing emission concentrations. This concentration then leads to
changes in ‘endpoints’ relevant to human welfare. These changes can be monetarily valued
by quantifying the amount of damage caused at the endpoints. The entire chain from
emissions, nuisance and resources through to damage in monetary terms is the subject of
the present Handbook.
Most epidemiological studies report their results in terms of relative risk RR, defined as the
ratio of the incidence observed at two different exposure levels. The RR can therefore be
interpreted as the increase in percentages in the relative risk in the reported impact due to
an increase in exposure levels of 10/µg/m3. To quantify damages, one needs to translate
this RR in terms of a concentration response function, also called exposure response
function (Rabl, et al., 2014). For this one needs to know the existing risk on these incidents.
So for an RR of 1.046 per 10/µg/m 3 for Working Days Loss due to PM2.5 lung diseases, one
needs to understand how often the population already is suffering from these diseases.
The CRF can then be regarded as the product of the baseline and the Delta RR.
phys. External
Impact per Monet Val costs per
CRF person per per case or person per
Pollutan RGF AGF [1/(µg/m3) µg per m3 per YOLL µg per m3
t Risk group (RG) value Age Groupe (AG) value ] [1/(µg/m3)] unit [Euro] [1/(µg/m3)]
primary and SIA < 2.5, i.e. Particle < 2.5µm
Life expectancy reduction - YOLLchronic PM2.5 all 1.000 Total 1 6.51E-04 6.51E-04 YOLL 40,000 2.60E+01
netto Restricted activity days (netRADs) PM2.5 all 1.000 MIX 1 9.59E-03 9.59E-03 days 130 1.25E+00
Work loss days (WLD) PM2.5 all 1.000 Adults_15_to_64_years 0.672 2.07E-02 1.39E-02 days 295 4.10E+00
Minor restricted activity days (MRAD) PM2.5 all 1.000 Adults_18_to_64_years 0.64 5.77E-02 3.69E-02 days 38 1.40E+00
Increased mortality risk (infants) PM10 infants 0.002 Total 0.009 4.00E-03 6.84E-08 cases 3,000,000 2.05E-01
New cases of chronic bronchitis PM10 all 1.000 Adults_27andAbove 0.7 2.65E-05 1.86E-05 cases 200,000 3.71E+00
Respiratory hospital admissions PM10 all 1.000 Total 1 7.03E-06 7.03E-06 cases 2,000 1.41E-02
Cardiac hospital admissions PM10 all 1.000 Total 1 4.34E-06 4.34E-06 cases 2,000 8.68E-03
Children meeting
PEACE criteria - EU
Medication use / bronchodilator use PM10 average 0.200 Children_5_to_14 0.112 1.80E-02 4.03E-04 cases 1 4.03E-04
Medication use / bronchodilator use PM10 asthmatics 0.045 Adults_20andAbove 0.798 9.12E-02 3.27E-03 cases 1 3.27E-03
Lower respiratory symptoms (adult) PM10 symptomatic_adults 0.300 Adults 0.83 1.30E-01 3.24E-02 days 38 1.23E+00
Lower respiratory symptoms (child) PM10 all 1.000 Children_5_to_14_years 0.112 1.86E-01 2.08E-02 days 38 7.92E-01
Increased mortality risk SOMO35 Baseline_mortality 0.0099 Total (YOLL = 0.75a/case) 1 3.00E-04 2.23E-06 YOLL 60,000 1.34E-01
Respiratory hospital admissions SOMO35 all 1.000 Elderly_65andAbove 0.158 1.25E-05 1.98E-06 cases 2,000 3.95E-03
MRAD SOMO35 all 1.000 Adults_18_to_64_years 0.64 1.15E-02 7.36E-03 days 38 2.80E-01
Medication use / bronchodilator use SOMO35 asthmatics 0.045 Adults_20andAbove 0.798 7.30E-02 2.62E-03 cases 1 2.62E-03
LRS excluding cough SOMO35 all 1.000 Children_5_to_14_years 0.112 1.60E-02 1.79E-03 days 38 6.81E-02
Cough days SOMO35 all 1.000 Children_5_to_14_years 0.112 9.30E-02 1.04E-02 days 38 3.96E-01
Abbreviations: Risk Group, RG: group within the general population with a handicap; RGF value: share of RG within the
general population; Age group, AG: groups distinguished by different age cohorts; AG value: share of
different age cohorts; CRF: concentration-response function; YOLL: Years of Life Lost; RAD: Restricted
Activity Days; SIA: Secondary Inorganic Aerosols; SOMO35: sum of ozone means over 35 ppb; WLD: Work
Loss Days; MRAD: Minor Restricted Activity Days; LRS: lower respiratory symptoms. Table constructed for
the whole of Europe.
Below for various impact groups the relevance of these CRFs for the present Handbook is
discussed in light of the recent WHO (2013) update. First, the mortality impacts are
discussed and then the morbidity impacts are identified.
Mortality NO 2
The REVIHAAP project (WHO, 2013) reports that since 2004 a growing number of studies
have been published identifying short- and long-term correlations between NO 2 and
mortality and morbidity that come on top of the impacts of NO 2 on PM formation and of NO2
on acute mortality due to ozone formation. There is thus a third category that is not
associated with particulate matter formation or ozone formation and that has here been
added to the theme of acidification. These have not yet been included in the NEEDS
project.
At the time of the NEEDS project these impacts were not included because the team was
unable to identify sufficient studies that properly quantified these epidemiological impacts
(NEEDS, 2007). Today (2016) the situation has changed and the WHO (2013) recommends
adopting a higher CRF for NO 2 than was previously used. The HRAPIE experts (WHO, 2013)
recommend including the long-term mortality impacts (all-cause and cardiovascular) of NO2
and advise adopting a linear CRF for NO 2 for all-cause mortality, translating to an RR of
1.055 per 10 μg/m 3 (WHO, 2013). In this context the WHO (2014) notes that when employing
this RR-value in multi-emission studies due care should be taken to avoid double-counting
with respect to the impact of NO 2 on PM formation, which they state can be as much as
33%.
For characterising NO2 with respect to PM formation, ReCiPe takes a value of 0.22.
This means that 22% of the RR increase can be attributed to impacts already taken into
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53
This estimate is feasible because in ReCiPe PM formation is considered only in terms of its impacts on the
endpoint ‘human health’.
Hospital admissions
WHO (2014) reports hospital admissions from ozone both for respiratory and cardiac
diseases. NEEDS (2008) has only used respiratory diseases. The RR used in NEEDS for
respiratory diseases is very similar to the one proposed in WHO (2014). Therefore, our
conclusion is to follow WHO and extend this category by including cardiac hospital
admissions.
Morbidity impacts of NO 2
Morbidity impacts of NO 2 have not been included in the NEEDS project as scientific evidence
was not yet overwhelming as to the chronic impacts from NO 2 pollution. WHO (2013)
recommends including these in cost-benefit analyses.
The CRF and estimated baseline rates can be linked to provide an impact function:
Annual rate of attributable emergency respiratory hospital admissions
= background incidence rate (617/100,000) × change per 10 µg/m3 NO2 (1.8%)
= 7.03 (95% CI 3.83, 10.30) per 10 µg/m3 PM10 per 100,000 people (all ages)
Also here, the additional impact of NO 2 on hospital admissions is very small and does not
influence the final results.
risk Age
group RGF Group CRF
Core Endpoints pollutant (RG) value (AG) AGF value [1/ug/m3] unit
Primary and SIA < 2.5 i.e. Particle < 2,5 um
Life expectancy reduction - YOLLchronic PM2.5 all 1 Total 1 6,51E-04 YOLL
netto Restricted activity days (netRADs) PM2.5 all 1 MIX 1 9,59E-03 days
Work loss days (WLD) PM2.5 all 1 Beroepsbevolking
0,4131472 2,07E-02 days
Minor restricted activity days (MRAD) PM2.5 all 1 Adults_18_to_64_years
0,6232605 5,77E-02 days
Primary and SIA < 10 i.e. Particle < 10 um
Increased mortality risk (infants) PM10 infants 0,0019 Total 0,0102755 4,00E-03 cases
New cases of chronic bronchitis PM10 all 1 Adults_18andAboves
0,812034 4,51E-05 cases
respiratory hospital admissions PM10 all 1 Total 1 7,03E-06 cases
cardiac hospital admissions PM10 all 1 Total 1 4,34E-06 cases
Children
with
severe
medication use/bronchodilator use PM10 astma 0,045 Children_5_to_14
0,1046751 4,76E-03 cases
medication use/bronchodilator use PM10 asthmatics 0,045 Adults_20andAboves
0,7907585 0,00E+00 cases
lower respiratory symptoms (adult) PM10 symptomatic_adults 0,3 Adults 0,812034 0,00E+00 days
lower respiratory symptoms (child) PM10 all 1 Children_5_to_14
0,1046751 0,00E+00 days
Ozone [ug/m3] - from SOMO35
Increased mortality risk SOMO35 baseline_mortality0,0099 Total (YOLL = 0,75a/case)
1 3,00E-04 YOLL
respiratory hospital admissions SOMO35 all 1 Elderly_65andAbove
0,1887735 1,25E-05 cases
MRAD SOMO35 all 1 Adults_18_to_64_years
0,6232605 1,54E-02 days
medication use/bronchodilator use SOMO35 asthmatics 0,045 Adults_20andAboves
0,7907585 7,30E-02 cases
LRS excluding cough SOMO35 all 1 Children_5_to_14
0,1046751 1,60E-02 days
Cough days SOMO35 all 1 Children_5_to_14
0,1046751 9,30E-02 days
NO2 [ug/m3] -
Increased mortality risk NO2 all 0,28 Adults 30+ 0,6690976 4,41E-04 YOLL
Prevalence of bronchitis in asthmatich children
NO2 all 0,045 Children_5_to_19
0,1578638 5,25E-03 cases
Hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases
NO2 all 1 Total 1 1,11E-05 cases
Abbreviations: Risk Group, RG: group within the general population with a handicap; RGF value: share of RG within the
general population; Age group, AG: groups distinguished by different age cohorts; AG value: share of
different age cohorts; CRF: concentration-response function; YOLL: Years of Life Lost; RAD: Restricted
Activity Days; SIA: Secondary Inorganic Aerosols; SOMO35: sum of ozone means over 35 ppb; WLD: Work
Loss Days; MRAD: Minor Restricted Activity Days; LRS: lower respiratory symptoms.
Source: Adjusted from NEEDS (2008a), based on NEEDS (2007) with own recalculations of the green and orange
cells.
In the Handbook the following four cost categories have been adopted:
1. Corrosion due to acidification. As in (CE Delft, 2010), the corrosive impacts of acidifying
emissions on metals, building stone and paint are based on NEEDS (2008a). NEEDS itself
derives its prices from maintenance costs per square meter for a number of different
materials. These prices have not been adjusted to the slightly higher density of
For the differentiation of PM2.5 emissions we have assumed that the national average is valid
for cities and can be doubled in the case of metropoles while no damage can be expected in
rural areas.
Since 2009 there has been no further development of NEEDS and neither of the rival model
CAFE-CBA (IIASA, 2014). It is also striking is that recent shadow price manuals for Ireland,
Belgium and Germany (under development) are still based on the NEEDS methodology owing
to its far greater transparency. However, one cannot simply take the NEEDS values and
apply them to air pollution because the estimation results are over a decade old and many
things have changed: background concentration levels, knowledge about impacts from
pollution and the valuation framework. For that reason, adaptations to the NEEDS
framework must be made. This is possible since we have the possession of a great deal of
modelling outcomes from the NEEDS model so that we can make required changes to reflect
more recent insights.
In the following sub-chapters, the adaptations made in those five areas are described in
more detail.
In Section C.4 a detailed account of the changes in RR that have been adopted compared to
the NEEDS estimate are given. In total we have updated about 7 of the 18 CRF functions in
NEEDS and have introduced four new CRF functions of impacts that are reported in the WHO
(2013) but have not been taken into account in the NEEDS estimates. The result is an up-to-
date and precise calculation of the impacts of air pollution on human health.
The CRFs for PM2.5 have also been applied to PM10 taking into account the fraction in PM10
that is being PM2.5. This relationship between PM10 and PM2.5 emissions is based on country-
specific emissions of both pollutants as reported by Eurostat (2016 values have been taken).
We have assumed that within the EU 28% of the population is living in areas with annual NO 2
concentrations larger than 20/µg/m3.
As for the CRFs of biodiversity impacts and crop losses we have not taken new information
into consideration compared to the NEEDS project. As for impacts on building materials, we
have followed the treatment as (CE Delft, 2018).
This differentiation has been done by observing ratios in the NEEDS model between damage
costs of EU28 compared to the national averages, and by observing ratios in the literature
between the various sources of exhaust emissions. This yields insights into the likely
damage costs per country for transport emissions.
We, as authors and researchers, fully acknowledge that such an approach where ratios are
being used is less preferred than a new modelling effort in which the impact-pathway of
emissions through the environment is being modelled for different countries and different
heights of stack. However, this is very labour intensive trajectory that has only been
As HEATCO differentiates between the emissions from a metropole region (e.g. cities with
> 0.5 million of inhabitants) and emissions outside built areas, we use this differentiation as
well. In order to obtain an estimate for small and medium sized cities, we took the
relationship between metropole emissions and small and medium-sized cities from a
previous version from the IMPACT Handbook (Infras, CE Delft, ISI & University of Gdansk,
2008). This concludes that the impacts on small- and medium-sized cities are about 1/3 of
the impact of the metropole cities.
In CE Delft (2010), the value adopted for biodiversity was the average value of an EDP 55 per
m2 per annum of €2004 0.4706, based on Kuik et al. (2008). This value is the average value
from a meta-analysis encompassing a number of European countries. However, the median
value in this study is € 2004 0.0604, a factor 8 lower. This implies that the overall distribution
of values comprises relatively many high values (Kuik, et al., 2008). In a study on the
external costs of energy production, Ecofys (2014) takes Kuik’s median value rather than
the average. Generally speaking, in meta-analyses more value is attached to the median
than to the average.
On the other hand, an earlier study by NEEDS (2006) arrived at a PDF-value of € 0.45/€ 0.49
per PDF/m2, the same as the average value in Kuik et al. (2008).56 NEEDS (2006) uses the
restoration-cost approach. The Éclaire project (Holland, 2014); (IIASA, 2014) investigated
the economic value of air pollution impacts on ecosystem services, with biodiversity valued
using WTP (as with Kuik), restoration costs and revealed preferences (costs of legislation).
This project indicates that WTP-based values are conceptually the most robust, but that
data availability may be a problem. In that case, use can be made of restoration costs.
Restoration costs can also be used to validate WTP-values. Holland (2014); IIASA (2014)
report that restoration costs represent a minimum value for biodiversity, because even
________________________________
54 This is a best guess but the number can be calculated more precisely on the basis of Eurostat statistics if needed
55 Ecosystem Damage Potential, which is a slightly different measure, but (Kuik, et al., 2008) state that for all
practical applications EDP and PDF can be considered identical.
56
In (CE Delft, 2010) it was reported that the average value of NEEDS (2006) was € 0.45, which is an EU-average.
In NEEDS (2006) it is stated that minimum restoration costs in Germany are € 0.49/PDF/m2. The figure of € 0.45
is a conversion from the German price level (using purchasing power parities) to an average European price
level.
In our study we have used the Kuik et al. (2008) estimate of the WTP since this and the
restoration costs yield similar values.
Damage to agricultural crops has been added to the valuation of ecosystems. For the
valuation itself the same method was employed as in NEEDS (2008), adjusting prices to
present-day levels in the markets concerned. New prices have been based on average
European producer prices for the EU28 as reported by FAO. Prices in USD2014 were converted
to EUR 2014 using the average 2014 exchange rate and then converted to € 2015 using the
general Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) . These prices were then weighted by
consumption of the crop concerned to determine the average price rise between 2000 and
2015. Finally, 18% VAT was added.
In Annex C.4.4 the changes in valuation of the impacts on materials and buildings are
already briefly described.
The IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report presents the current state of knowledge regarding the
effects of climate change (IPCC, 2013). The main costs resulting from the effects of climate
change are presented below:
— Sea level rise: An increase in temperature will result in the melting of (parts of) the
polar ice caps and other snow-covered surfaces, which in turn will lead to rising sea
levels. As a result, land that is currently used for living or agriculture will be lost, and
more effort will need to be dedicated to the protection of coastal areas.
— Crop failure: An increase in temperature and changes in average and extreme
precipitation can negatively affect agriculture in certain areas (whereas it may have a
positive impact in other areas). These changes may manifest itself on a relatively short
timescale and lead to important socioeconomic adaptation problems where famines
could occur more frequently and which may trigger migration.
— Health costs: Temperature increases may lead to more hospital admissions and
mortality as a result of heat stress. At the same time, an increase in temperature can
lead to a reduction in mortality from extreme cold weather events. Changes in
temperature can also lead to a larger dispersion of a number of disease that are carried
by parasites or insects, such as malaria. In addition, an increase in and/or worsening of
extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and heatwaves can lead to an increase in
the number of fatalities from such events.
— Damage to buildings and materials: Climate change may lead to an increase in the
frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, as well as a potential
intensification of such effects. Such weather extremes can severely damage buildings,
materials and infrastructure.
Each of these effects is likely to trigger human responses, which may have important
socioeconomic consequences. For instance, it has been argued that one of the contributing
factors to the Syrian civil war was anthropogenic climate change (Bennet, 2015; Verme et
al., 2016; Adelphi et al., 2015). These effects are even harder to quantify than the direct
physical costs outlined above, but are extremely important in accurately identifying climate
change costs.
These damage costs are calculated with the help of climate-economic models, which merge
assumptions regarding climate effects with assumptions regarding future developments of
(the division of) income. For instance, the damage costs of sea level rise can be expressed
as the costs of land loss. Agricultural impacts can be expressed as costs or benefits to
producers and consumers, and changes in water runoff might be expressed as new flood
damage estimates. From a scientific point of view, it is desirable that all external effects
are monetised, although this is likely to be extremely complicated as certain effects
(e.g. climate feedbacks) are not yet fully understood.
Damage costs increase over time, resulting in the fact that damage costs in 2050 will be
higher than damage costs in 2020. This is because of the long lifetime of carbon in the
atmosphere, the decreasing discount rates used for future emissions due to uncertainties
about future economic development and the non-linearity in the impacts of CO 2 emissions
(Defra, 2005).
— Uncertainty regarding the effects of climate change: There are large uncertainties
regarding the magnitude of climate change and its consequences on temperatures, sea
level rise and extreme weather events. Potentially catastrophic effects, such as the
melting of the polar ice caps in Greenland or West Antarctica or changes in climate
subsystems such as El Niño Southern Oscillation are not, or only partly, incorporated in
the analyses.
— Uncertainty regarding the vulnerability of society: It has been argued that IAMs
underestimate the vulnerability of societies and economies to historical temperature
fluctuations, and that these models are not calibrated for higher temperature variations
(Revesz, et al., 2014; Marten et al., 2013). In addition, weather variability is much more
important for agricultural yield (and therefore security of food supply) than average
weather (Revesz, et al., 2014). This is an aspect which is not yet fully taken into
account in most IAMs.
— Uncertainties regarding the social discount rate that should be used: As the effects of
climate change occur at different points in the future, discounting should be applied.
Discounting is the process of valuing future costs and benefits in terms of their value
today (present value). There is a lot of discussion regarding the discount rate that
should be used (see e.g. Stern vs. Nordhaus). Available damage cost estimates of
climate change vary by orders of magnitude depending on the discount rate.
Defra (2005) show that damage costs can increase by a factor of 5 if a pure rate of time
preference of 1% is used, as opposed to a 0% rate. The different discount rates that can
be used reflect theoretical valuation problems related to equity, irreversibility and
uncertainty. For equity both intergenerational and intra-generational equity should be
considered.
— Risk aversion and loss aversion are not taken into account properly: In general people
are risk averse and loss averse. Risk aversion implies that when exposed to a situation
with an unknown payoff, there is a preference for a more predictable lower expected
payoff. Loss aversion implies that individuals do not value gains and losses in the same
manner. Translating this to the climate implies that humans should prefer a more costly
route that leads to lower warming with more certainty than a less costly route where
there is more uncertainty about the extent of the warming. Similarly, as humans are
loss averse they will need to be overcompensated for losses in the climate as we know
— Equity weighting: Although climate change is a global problem, it will give rise to
different impacts in different countries, which each have different levels of
development. To account for these income differences equity weighting may be
applied. As the marginal utility of consumption is declining with additional consumption,
a richer person will obtain less utility from extra money available than a poorer person.
Equity weighting implies that climate change impacts are weighted differently based on
which region of the world the impacts take place, taking into account differences in the
marginal utility of consumption. Studies have shown that the use of equity weights
could increase damage costs by a factor of 10 (Defra, 2005; Anthoff & Tol, 2007).
In general there are two approaches to equity weighting (Friedrich, 2008):
• World average weights: Using world average weights entails adjusting regional
monetary values to a world average income. The value of climate damages in
Europe would be lowered, whereas the value of climate damages outside of Europe
will increase. As most of the climate change damages will occur outside of Europe,
this equity weighting approach will result in higher damage costs than damage costs
that do not use equity weighting.
• Regional/EU weights: Using regional/EU weights implies that the damages are
valued by the monetary value from the region in which GHG are emitted. This would
imply that European values should be applied to all damages caused by European
GHG emissions. This approach can be justified from an ethical point of view as
Europe would pay for (the risks of) the damages they are causing, and would result
in higher damage costs than an approach where equity weighting is not considered.
— The assessment of the baseline scenario: The state of the baseline scenario with global
long-term economic development, technological development and the associated
greenhouse gas emissions, is important to determine the marginal external costs of
additional CO 2 emissions. Some IAMs do not take into account the effect that climate
change has on labour productivity and general productivity. These, in turn, affect
economic growth, and lead to an intensification of the welfare loss through the interest
rate effect. Therefore, uncertainty regarding the baseline scenario is a source of
uncertainty in the estimates of climate change damage costs.
— Adaptation measures: Adaptation measures have the potential to lower damage costs,
however, they are currently barely taken into account in the calculation of damage
costs.
Crucial to the use of avoidance costs is the level of the emissions target that is set.
To achieve accurate avoidance costs, this level has to reflect society’s target level of CO2
reductions. Several targets are relevant at the EU level:
— A reduction of CO 2 emissions of 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. This is the EU
target that has been detailed with concrete measures (e.g. the EU ETS, Effort Sharing
Decision, etc.).
From a welfare economics perspective the avoidance cost approach is not a first-best
solution (Defra, 2005) as it does not directly measure and value all impacts of climate
change. However, if the emissions target adequately reflects the preferences of society and
can therefore be used to determine society’s WTP for a certain abatement level, the
avoidance cost approach can be seen as a theoretically sound alternative. Ideally, to
indicate the social desirability of the target, the targets should be confirmed by binding
policies.
As humans are known to be risk averse, risk aversion should be taken into account in the
assessment of climate change costs. The precautionary principle57 was introduced in climate
policy to take this risk aversion into account. After all, there are certain risks of climate
change that could create very high damages in the long run (e.g. methane outbursts, loss or
reversal of the Gulf Stream). However, there are currently no methodologies that include
marginal risk aversion in the assessment of damage costs. Therefore, the only way to
include risk aversion and the precautionary principle in the assessment is through using an
avoidance based approach, assuming that the political decision of the reduction target does
take these unknown, but important impacts into account.
There are a number of important aspects in determining the avoidance cost estimates:
— The choice of target level: Avoidance cost estimates are highly sensitive to the choice
of target level. A stronger emission reduction target will imply higher costs than a lower
emission reduction target. However, the target level is also sensitive to the system to
which the target is applied. For instance, whether the target holds for all sectors or
specific sectors (e.g. transport-only) will affect the cost estimate. Similarly, costs
may differ depending on whether the target set is valid at the national level or the
supranational level. If the emissions target chosen does not reflect the preferences of
society, this methodology will not be optimal from a welfare economics perspective.
— Estimation of options for mitigation: Avoidance costs rely on the accurate prediction of
technological progress and technological breakthroughs. Such progress or efficiency
gains can reduce the costs of the technologies used in the baseline scenario, as well as
those of the additional measures. A factor that is of particular interest here is the
future development of the energy prices. With low energy prices, abatement options
will be very expensive, whereas with higher energy prices abatement options will be
cheaper.
________________________________
57
Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a
reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation – Rio Declaration on
Environment and Development.
— Risk and loss aversion: This is an import issue for both avoidance and damage costs.
For avoidance costs it can only be taken into account when one assumes the political
decision underlying the reduction target takes risk and loss aversion into account.
For more detail please see Section D.3.1.
— Equity weighting: This is an important issue for both avoidance and damage costs, for
more detail please see Section D.3.1.
EU ETS
In principle, an emissions cap-and-trade scheme, such as the EU Emission Trading Scheme, can be seen as a
variant of the avoidance cost approach. However, emission trading prices only reflect social costs when the
allocated maximum emissions equal the optimal level from a welfare economics point of view (Smith & Braathen,
2015). In the EU ETS there is a surplus of allowances (EC, 2016), such that the socially optimal emissions level
cannot be reached. This will change in the future because of the Market Stability Reserve. Furthermore, the use
of the current emissions trading prices as a proxy for avoidance costs is limited to the
CO2 emissions only in the markets that are included in the EU ETS (Smith & Braathen, 2015). As there are sectors
that are not included in the EU ETS, the use of EU ETS trading prices is not likely to be representative for CO 2
emissions in sectors outside the EU ETS or for other pollutants (CH 4 or N2O). Because of these reasons, this
variant of avoidance costs will not be explored further here.
In the second edition of the Handbook (Ricardo-AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014) the use of
avoidance costs was exclusively advocated. The target level of emissions was 450 ppm CO 2
equivalents, which corresponds to 2˚C of warming. A climate change costs per tonne of
carbon of € 90 was used.
________________________________
58
The GWP of CH 4 is 34, observing over a 100 year period.
In general, recent studies find higher damage costs than the early study conducted by
(Anthoff, 2007). Recent literature that use the same IAM (FUND) results in values that are
1.3-3.4 times higher than those provided by (Anthoff, 2007) (e.g. (Anthoff, et al., 2011;
Waldhoff, et al., 2014)). Studies that don’t (only) rely on FUND find values that are
between 1.8-6.9 and 2.7-17 times higher for current (< 2025) and future (± 2050) emissions
respectively (Ackerman & Stanton, 2012; IAWG, 2013).60 Only one recent study found a
lower damage cost value than Anthoff (2007), although the costs were not calculated using
one IAM, but rather as an average of the results of three IAMs (Gillingham, et al., 2015).
Anthoff’s (2007b) damage costs for emissions in the near future are negative when using
high discount rates (>1%), which is likely to be as a result of the CO 2-fertilisation effect.
However, similar recent studies (Moore & Diaz, 2015; IAWG, 2013) dispute this.
Their findings suggest these costs are positive. Lastly, when comparing Anthoff (2007)’s
values to the meta-analysis carried out by (Tol, 2013) minor differences (factor 1.7) are
observed for mean damage costs, but strong differences (factor 17) are observed for median
costs.
The main new studies that have been published since previous editions of the Handbook are
(DECC, 2009), (DECC, 2015), (CPB; PBL, 2016), (IEA, 2008) & (IEA, 2010), (IEA, 2017b) &
(IEA, 2017a) (Riahi, et al., 2015) and a range of studies conducted by researchers at the
Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung ( (Edenhofer, et al., 2010), (Kitous, et al., 2010),
(Magné, et al., 2010), (Leimbach, et al., 2010), (Barker & Scrieciu, 2010) and (D.P., et al.,
2010)). The figure shows the low (triangle), central (round) and high (diamond) value from
the various studies. In general, the values for 2025 from Kuik et al lie slightly higher than
the rest of the literature values, whereas the CPB-PBL (2016) values for both 2030 and 2050
are extremely high compared to the rest of the literature.
Figure 18 – Review of avoidance cost values found in the literature (€ 2016 /t CO2 equivalent)
The avoidance costs used in this Handbook are based on an average of the values found in
the literature, grouped according to the short-and-medium-term (up to 2030) and the long
term (2040-2060). The values for both these time periods were reached by calculating the
average of all central estimates, excluding the lowest and the highest one to eliminate
outliers. This provides us with a central avoidance cost value of € 100 in short-and-medium-
term. This process was repeated for the low and high estimates, which are € 60 and € 189 in
the short-and-medium-term respectively. Table 82 also shows the avoidance costs for the
long term. In the long term the climate costs were shown to have a central estimate of
€ 269/tCO 2 equivalent.
It is important to note that excluding 2030 from the cut-off point between the short-and-
medium-run vs. the long run would not significantly change the short-and-medium-run
avoidance cost estimates. This cut-off is currently set at 2030, but if one were to set it at
2025, the low, central and high estimates for the short-and-medium, run would change to
€ 59, € 97 and remain at € 189 respectively, all very minor changes.
D.3.5 Conclusions
Despite significant advancements in the field of damage cost calculation we use avoidance
costs to calculate climate change costs. This brings us in line with the previous edition of
the Handbook. Numerous studies have advocated the use of avoidance costs rather than
damage costs (CE Delft, INFRAS & Fraunhofer ISI, 2011; DECC, 2009; DECC, 2015; Isacs et
al., 2016; Smith & Braathen, 2015) (CE Delft, 2018). The major weakness of the damage
cost approach is the fact that all climate damages need to be fully understood and
quantified. Although many of the climate damages are somewhat understood, there are
certain feedbacks and potentially extreme events that are not yet fully understood.
Furthermore, the spread of results from different studies assessing climate costs based on
avoidance costs is significantly smaller than for studies using damage costs. This seems to
suggest that there is more certainty around the avoidance costs estimates than the damage
costs estimates.
The biggest argument for the use of avoidance costs rather than damage costs is the fact
that countries have signed up to the Paris Agreement. Since the EU ratified the Paris
Agreement on the 5th of October 2016, committing itself to limit the increase in global
average temperatures to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels (this can be
roughly translated to 450 ppm CO2 equivalents), we have reason to believe this is a credible
long-term reduction target, which is representative of the interests of society, and which
we can use as a target to base the avoidance cost on. Furthermore, if the Paris Agreement
is to be retained, then the marginal cost of extra CO 2 from transport will need to be offset
by reduced emissions elsewhere. This implies that it is not extra damage from global
warming, but extra avoidance in other sectors. Therefore, there will be no additional
damage costs, only avoidance costs of CO 2.
The avoidance costs used in this Handbook are based on the analysis presented in Section
D.3.4. Therefore, the costs are not based on a single study, but rather on multiple studies,
resulting in a central climate changes cost estimate of € 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent for
the short-and-medium-term.
Annoyance represents the disturbance individuals experience when they are exposed to
traffic noise. It can hinder people in performing certain activities, which may lead to a
variety of negative responses, including irritation, disappointment, anxiety and exhaustion
(WHO, 2011). In addition, general wellbeing may be affected. This may be particularly
prevalent during a sunny day spent outside.
Health endpoints can take a multitude of forms. Recently, the WHO commissioned a series
of systematic reviews for the health effects of environmental noise (R., et al., 2017) (M.J.,
et al., 2017) (Kempen, et al., 2018) (Clark & Paunovic, 2018) (Sliwinska-Kowalska &
Zaborowski, 2017) (Basner & McGuire, 2018) (Brown & van Kamp, 2017). Their aim was to
conduct extensive meta-analyses in order to classify the evidence base for the health
effects according to four definitions:
High quality: Further research is very unlikely to change our confidence in the
estimate of the effects.
Moderate quality: Further research is likely to have an important impact on our
confidence in the estimate of the effect and may change the
estimate.
Low quality: Further research is very likely to have an important impact on our
confidence in the estimate of the effect and is likely to change the
estimate.
Very low quality: Any estimate of the effect is uncertain.
Table 83 – Health endpoints of noise for which the evidence is classified as at least ‘moderate quality’ by the
WHO
A brief summary of a few of the main health endpoints of traffic noise included in the 2018
WHO Systematic Reviews are presented below:
— Cardiovascular diseases and hypertension: Multiple studies have confirmed the link
between cardiovascular disease and traffic noise (Seidler, et al., 2015) (Ecoplan & Infras,
2014) (WHO, 2011). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence that traffic noise increases
the risk of hypertension (Health & Safety Laboratory, 2011), which not only contributes
to increased risk of cardiovascular disease, but also increases the risk of stroke and
dementia (Defra, 2014).
— Sleep disturbance: Sleep disturbance as a result of traffic noise raises stress levels,
reduces wellbeing due to insomnia and tiredness, increases irritability and reduces social
contacts (Fraunhofer ISI & Infras, 2018). Furthermore, evidence suggests a link between
diabetes and exposure to traffic noise through sleep disturbance (Sørensen, et al., 2013)
(Babisch, 2014). Changes in sleeping patterns have been linked to changes in eating
habits, which have been associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and obesity.
— Cognitive impairment: Chronic and acute exposure to aircraft noise seems to affect the
long-term memory and reading capabilities of children (Guski & Schreckenberg, 2015).
Similar effects have also been identified for road noise (Dreger, et al., 2015).
In addition, studies have reported a number of other health endpoints that are not
supported by the latest WHO Systematic Reviews:
— Breast cancer: Three cohort studies have shown significant correlations between breast
cancer in women and traffic noise, but only for specific ranges of noise nuisance and
types of breast cancer (Seidler, et al., 2015) (Greiser & Greiser, 2015) (Sørensen, et al.,
2014). For standardised noise measures and all types of breast cancers, no significant
correlation was found.
— Depression: There are currently very few recent studies exploring the link between
depression and traffic noise. Clearly significant findings from (Seidler, et al., 2015)
suggest a strong correlation between the prevalence of unipolar depression and
exposure to traffic noise. (Greiser & Greiser, 2009) find similar significant findings, but
only for women.
Overall, there appears to be weaker evidence for these latter three health endpoints of
traffic noise. In addition, they are not supported by the WHO in their latest Systematic
Reviews. For this purpose, we will not include the costs of breast cancer in women,
depression or tinnitus in the costs of noise. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the
WHO evaluated the quality of the evidence according to very strict guidelines valid for
clinical medicine.
In this study, we take into account both the costs of annoyance and the costs of health
separately, although they are closely linked. For instance, sleep disturbance is classified as
a health impact according to (Defra, 2014) although there is likely to be significant overlap
with annoyance. These two impacts are difficult to separate. In WTP studies looking at
noise it is complicated to separate individual’s valuation for annoyance from sleep
disturbance. If one is asked about their annoyance they are inclined to also take into
account the effects of sleep disturbance. Therefore, there is an implicit risk of double
counting valuation if both sleep disturbance and annoyance impacts are explicitly taken
into account. To avoid double counting we employ the conservative assumption that sleep
disturbance is excluded from the health endpoints and is only considered in the annoyance
endpoint. The health endpoints that we do include in this study are ischaemic heart
disease, stroke and dementia (the latter two both indirectly through hypertension).
In addition to the costs of annoyance and costs of health, there are a number of other
effects as a result of exposure to noise, including disturbance of quiet areas, effects on
ecosystems and effects of restricted land use. Due to the novel nature of research and
complexity of their valuation, none of these effects are incorporated in this study.
— Disturbance of quiet areas: There is evidence of a peaceful environment, or ‘quiet areas’,
being negatively impacted by noise (Anastasopoulos et al., 2011). Noise reduces the
quality of the quiet areas, such as parks, experienced by recreational users. As these
areas are classic public goods without a market price, valuing them is difficult. Lack of
appropriate valuation of these quiet areas prevents the negative effects due to noise
from being incorporated in this study.
— Cordon sanitaires: An additional impact of transport noise is the restricted land use
possibilities in areas around airports and some (rail) roads. In many countries
governments establish ‘cordon sanitaires’ around large noise sources like airports.
In these cordon sanitaires land use is restricted, and building new houses is prohibited.
These restrictions in land use change, result in welfare losses and hence should be taken
Lastly, individual and collective behavioural responses to noise exposure, such as avoidance
measures (e.g. the closing of windows, choice of residential area, good noise isolation and
moving house) or adaptation, are not included in the valuation of noise in this study.
The reasons for this are twofold. Firstly, these behavioural responses can be extremely
difficult to measure, and secondly, because their importance is deemed an order of
magnitude less important than the costs of health and annoyance (Fraunhofer ISI & Infras,
2018).
For a list of the impacts of noise that are included in the valuation in this Handbook we
refer to Section 6.2 and Section E.5.3.
The compiled data, however, are not complete as not all data have been reported and not
all cities and urban regions are included in the scope of the noise directive. The following
corrections have been applied to complete unreported data on agglomerations to be
reported:
— For countries with partly incomplete reporting of agglomerations, the number of people
exposed to the different noise-bands have been estimated by extrapolating the reported
number to the to-be reported number, linearly with the number of inhabitants
(reported and to-be reported).
— For countries that have no data at all (Greece) the relative exposures per noise band of
a neighbouring country (Bulgaria) have been applied on the number of people to be
reported.
For major roads and railways the following corrections have been applied:
— For countries with partly unreported kilometres road or railway, the number of people
exposed to the different noise-bands have been extrapolated from the reported
kilometres road or rail to the to-be reported kilometres road or rail (linearly with the
kilometres road or railway).
— For countries that have no data at all (Greece, Estonia) the exposed people per
kilometre road or rail of a neighbouring country (Bulgaria, Lithuania) have been applied
on the kilometres road or rail to be reported.
To also include people exposed to road and rail noise in areas that are not within the scope
of the Environmental Noise Directive the following procedure has been applied:
— Data from Eurostat (Eurostat, 2018) on the number of people living in cities (areas with
a centre with a density > 1,500 inhabitants/km 2) and people living in towns and suburbs
(> 300 inhabitants/km 2) were extracted.
However, some recent studies have indicated that relationships between noise level and
reported annoyance are stronger for railway noise than for road noise (Guski et al., 2017),
or that this relationship holds below or above certain noise levels (Bodin et al., 2015)
(Lercher, et al., 2010). Furthermore, some studies found night-time railway noise to be
more annoying than road noise (Elmenhorst et al., 2012) (Elmenhorst et al. , 2014).
Other studies, using physical indicators for annoyance such as heart rate, systolic blood
pressure and stress biomarkers, have not shown a different response to rail noise, compared
to road noise (Gallash et al., 2016). As the literature is not unanimous, evidence makes it
hard to continue to support the rail bonus. Contradicting evidence from hedonic pricing
studies (see Section E.5.2) also complicates upholding the rail bonus. Therefore, based on
the aforementioned literature, we have decided to no longer include a rail bonus in the
costs of annoyance from noise in this Handbook.
Annoyance costs
Earlier editions of the Handbook valued annoyance based on the SP results of HEATCO
(Navrud, et al., 2005). HEATCO’s values are based on a general shadow price of noise
nuisance of € 25 per dB per household, which was then translated to the different national
circumstances. The 2014 edition of the Handbook also used HEATCO’s values, and merely
corrected them for inflation.
Health costs
For health costs, earlier editions of the Handbook were based on UNITE (2003). The health
endpoints covered were: hypertension, angina pectoris and myocardial infarction. To
evaluate the economic costs of these health endpoints a VOLY of € 40,300 (price level 2002)
was used. The cost of illness approach was applied to estimate the medical costs.
Table 84 illustrates the values from (Bristow, et al., 2015)’s study adapted to the average
income for the EU28, expressed as the WTP for a welfare loss (increase in noise level) per
person per dB.
Table 84 – Valuation of noise annoyance in the EU28 in €2016 per person per dB, L den
Road 14 28 54
Aviation 34 68 129
Whether or not the valuation of noise increases more steeply with higher levels of noise has
also been investigated by the hedonic price literature. Both (Theebe, 2004) and (Udo, et
al., 2006) have explicitly taken a non-linear relationship into consideration. (Theebe, 2004)
find this effect holds for noise levels above 65 dB, whereas (Udo, et al., 2006) witness this
effect for the entire range of noise levels.
Table 85 – Noise Sensitivity Depreciation Index (NSDI) results of hedonic price studies
Furthermore, the studies presented in Table 85 support the acoustic literature (e.g.
(Miedema & Oudshoorn, 2001) which suggests that people consider noise from aircraft
more of a nuisance than road noise. However, the results are not harmonised in terms of
justifying the rail bonus (see Section E.4). The results from (Andersson et al., 2010) and
(Andersson et al., 2013) suggest road noise is more of a nuisance than rail noise, which is in
line with the acoustic literature, and supports the existence of a rail bonus. However, the
studies by (Day, et al., 2007) and (Dekkers & van der Straaten, 2008) find higher NSDI values
Comparing (Defra, 2014) to the SP results from (Bristow, et al., 2015), shows that the EBD
method results in considerably lower valuation than the SP method (see Figure 19). This can
(partially) be explained through the fact that the EBD method uses a conservative approach
for multiple reasons. Firstly, it only incorporates nuisance by highly annoyed persons (%HA).
Annoyed people (%A) are not taken into account using this valuation methodology. It is
currently not possible to correct for leaving out the less severe forms of annoyance, as
(WHO, 2011) does not provide any disability weights that could be used to make these
adjustments. Secondly, the WHO recommended disability weights of annoyance of
0.02 (range spanning 0.01-0.12) is conservative. The sensitivity range for the disability
weights reflect the low and high range from the literature, whereas the point estimate of
0.02 reflects medical experts’ judgement based on a relative weighting compared to other
health endpoints. This implies the values provided by DEFRA could be up to 6 times higher if
a different disability weight was chosen. It is clear that there is large uncertainty regarding
the correct disability weight, but that the disability weight of 0.02 is likely to be an
underestimate of the health costs. Lastly, the dose-response function for %HA for aviation
noise that was used by DEFRA is likely to underestimate the %HA from aviation noise.
This was revealed by an EEA report (EEA, 2010), which noted that recent studies indicated
that the %HA from aviation noise at a given exposure was higher than that predicted by the
function in the EC Position paper (European Commission, 2002). Therefore, the costs
provided by DEFRA for aviation noise annoyance are likely to be an underestimate.
Figure 19 – Comparison of results: DEFRA and Bristow et al. (2015) (€2016 per dB per household)
200
150
100
50
0
45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79
dB
The major similarity between (Defra, 2014) and (Bristow, et al., 2015) (and some RP
studies) is that findings suggest that noise nuisance is not linear, and is considered worse at
higher noise levels. Furthermore, in line with the acoustic literature, the EBD findings
support the hypothesis that noise nuisance from different types of transport is valued
differently (e.g. aviation noise is worse than road noise).
Although (Bristow, et al., 2015) only present annoyance values for road and aviation noise,
we recommend applying their annoyance values for road and rail noise (see Section E.4 for
a discussion of the rail bonus). We use a threshold value for annoyance of 50 dB(A), in line
with recommendations from previous editions of the Handbook. Although it is widely known
that noise nuisance also exists at lower levels of noise, e.g. (WHO, 2011) (EEA, 2010), it is
We make one minor modification to the health costs as calculated by Defra. Defra takes
into account annoyance and sleep disturbance separately, although arguably there is some
overlap between the two. Most of the annoyance will take place because of the sleep
disturbance. Therefore, if individuals are well informed of the health effects of noise we
can expect them to take sleep disturbance costs into account in their WTP/WTA values for
annoyance shown in SP studies. HEATCO (2006) assumes that costs of sleep deprivation are
already part of the annoyance costs of noise, and therefore do not need to be taken into
account in the valuation of health costs. Previous editions of the Handbook also followed
this approach. This method is deemed plausible and therefore also followed this study.
Medical costs
The medical costs of noise exposure are not included in Defra (2014). Under medical costs,
we also consider the costs of productivity losses due to illness, e.g. working days lost and
days lost due to reintegration into work. Therefore, we base our calculations of the medical
costs on (HEATCO, 2006), where the medical costs due to noise were calculated to be 8% of
the VOLY. We therefore use this rule of thumb to estimate the medical costs of noise and
apply it to all the countries that we are considering.
Table 86 – Health costs used for the EU28 (€2016/person/dB/year) based on Defra (2014)
E.5.4 Conclusions
Since the previous editions of the Handbook (Infras, CE Delft, ISI & University of Gdansk,
2008) (Ricardo-AEA, TRT, DIW Econ & CAU, 2014), substantial research has been conducted
on the external costs of noise. For annoyance costs, these new insights have resulted in a
new set of cost values that will be used in this Handbook, based on (Bristow, et al., 2015).
A particularly novel aspect of these values is that they increase with the noise level,
reflecting the increased annoyance with higher levels of noise. For the health costs, a lot of
research has focussed on identifying the correct health endpoints that are affected by
noise. Unfortunately, there is no health cost study that incorporates all health effects for
which evidence is considered at least ‘moderate quality’ by the WHO’s latest systematic
reviews. However, the costs by (Defra, 2014) best match the WHO’s findings. Therefore,
the values from (Defra, 2014) will be used and adapted to each of the countries considered
in this study.
The model refers to a single link to which a specific speed-flow relationship applies,
whereas in the real world, links belong to networks made of links with different features.
Furthermore, in the model there is one demand function whereas in the real world there
are several user categories with different preferences and willingness to pay. Since the
different categories share the use of the network, the definition of the socially optimum
demand level is not straightforward. For those reasons, cost estimates should necessarily be
considered as approximations.
The approach to estimate the road congestion cost postulates a relationship between the
speed 𝑣 and the flow 𝑞 on a road link (i.e., the quantity of vehicles passing through a
transversal road section of the link in a unit of time).
The speed-flow relationship 𝜈 = 𝜈(𝑞) (see Figure 20) is to be interpreted as follows. If the
flow takes any value lower or equal to 𝑞0 , the vehicles travel at free-flow speed 𝑣0. As the
flow increases above the free-flow, say 𝐹(𝑞0 ; 𝑣0 ), the speed gradually decreases to points B
or A. When the flow approaches the capacity of the link, say k at point C, the speed of the
flow reduces to the lower limit 𝑣𝑙 due to a local blockage61.
________________________________
61 According to road traffic theory, if the speed reduces significantly, less cars can pass through the local
blockage, therefore the flow should decrease and the curve should return back towards the vertical axis, in
form of a horizontally U-shape function. For the purpose of this model, the calculations have been developed
only considering a traffic flow situation represented in the upper part of the speed -flow relationship (i.e.,
above point C).
F
v [km/hour]
v0 B
v2 v(q)
A
v1
vl C
O q0 q2 q1 k
q [vehicles/hour]
In Figure 21, the function 𝐴𝐶(𝑞), representing the average travel cost borne by the road
users, results from the product of the value of time, which is assumed to be constant across
road users and the average travel time. If the flow takes any value lower or equal to 𝑞0, the
cost of travel is equal to 𝑝 0 and it corresponds to the cost of travel time, at free-flow
speed. When 𝑞 increases, the speed reduces, the travel time increases, and consequently
𝐴𝐶(𝑞) increases.
SMC(q)
D(q) C
DWL
B AC(q)
p2
A
p1 D
F
p0 E
O q0 q2 q1 q [vehicles/hour]
The function 𝑆𝑀𝐶(𝑞) is the social marginal cost function, which is equal to the private cost
𝐴𝐶(𝑞) plus the cost of the additional travel time, generated by the marginal vehicle that
reduces the speed of all the other vehicles. The driver of the marginal vehicle experiences
only his own travel time and not the effect of his decision on the travel times of the other
drivers. Therefore, if an additional vehicle enters the flow, the total social cost is increased
by:
𝑑𝑆𝐶 𝑑𝐴𝐶 (𝑞 )
= 𝐴𝐶(𝑞 ) + 𝑞 ∙
𝑑𝑞 𝑑𝑞
In the equation above the first term is the ‘private cost’ of a single vehicle, while the
second term is the external cost borne by the other users already in the flow due to the
additional vehicle.
Including this external cost element, which is not considered by the single user, the social
marginal cost curve is the relevant decision base. The point 𝐵 (𝑞2; 𝑝2 ), where the functions
𝐷(𝑞) and 𝑆𝑀𝐶(𝑞) intersect, represents the optimal solution. Beyond this point, any
additional vehicle generates a social cost higher than the social benefit62.
𝑇 = 𝑇0 ∙ (1 + 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝐴 ∙ 𝑟 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝐵 )
Where:
— 𝑇 is the actual travel time;
— 𝑇0 is the travel time in free flow conditions;
— 𝑟 is the flow/capacity ratio;
— 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝐴 and 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝐴 are parameters of the function.
________________________________
62
To stimulate the user decisions to follow the SMC(q) function, the difference between average private costs and
marginal social costs (i.e., the segment DB) has to be charged.
National values of time for car and coach passengers have been estimated from the UK’s
Department for Transport (ARUP, 2015). Data for UK have been used to estimate values for
the other countries based on GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) by country. Values of time for
coach passengers are about 48% lower than the value of time of long distance car
passengers. For coaches, the VOT of the driver has beed considered on the basis of the data
available from Comité National Routier (2016) by country. The values of time applied for
trucks in terms of commodity transported have been quantified building on those reported
in deliverable 5 of the project HEATCO (2006) and Significance, VU University Amsterdam &
John Bates Services (2012). Moreover, also the VOT of the driver has been considered in the
analysis on the basis of the data available from Comité National Routier (2016) by country.
More specifically, the values for road modes have been used (tonne per hour), assuming the
average load factor by country for heavy duty vehicles (e.g. about 13.6 tonnes per vehicle
for HGV on average in EU28 countries and 0.7 tonnes per vehicle for LCV) and the VOT of
the driver has been added to the estimation in order to the measure the VOT per vehicle.
For LCV it has been assumed that the VOT of the driver is lower than for HGV, assuming a
lower cost of labour due to lower skills requested. The GDP deflator has been applied to
update all the values to Euro 2016.
where 𝐶0 = 𝑇𝑜 ∙ 𝑉𝑂𝑇.
Given the speed flow curves, the load/capacity ratio producing the reported delay could be
calculated separately for each road type during peak and off-peak periods. Then, the
following function has been used to estimate the flow/capacity ratios for alternative values
of cost (i.e., of travel time):
𝑟 = 𝑚 ∙ 𝐴𝐶 + 𝑘
Where:
— 𝑟 is the flow/capacity ratio;
— 𝐴𝐶 is the average cost of driving (i.e., time cost of driving only);
— 𝑚 is the cost elasticity;
— 𝑘 is a constant parameter defining the position of the demand curve.
Cost elasticity parameters 𝑚 have been defined in literature, in particular Littman (2011)
and Oum et al. (1990). Different elasticity parameters have been used for peak and
off-peak periods64. Values have been estimated as weighted average of values by trip
purpose, considering the composition of trips in different periods. Values used are reported
in Table 89.
________________________________
63 Demand elasticity parameters are defined here as a measure of the relationship between a change in the
transport demand (i.e. the number of trips by car) and a change in the related cost (in this case the private cost
per trip). As an example, a value of the elasticity parameter of -0.5 means that an increase of cost by 20% is
reflected in a decrease of transport demand by -10%.
64
It is assumed that during peak period about 49% of trips is commuting and the residual is for other purposes,
instead during off-peak the commuting trips are about 22%.
(𝑆𝐶1 − 𝑃𝐶1 )
𝐷𝑊𝐿∗ = (𝑟1 − 𝑟 ∗ ) ∙
2
Where:
— 𝑟 ∗is the optimal load/capacity ratio;
— 𝑟1 is the load/capacity ratio in the assumed congestion conditions;
— 𝑆𝐶1 is the social cost in the assumed congestion conditions;
— 𝑃𝐶1 is the private cost in the assumed congestion conditions.
𝑉𝑟 = 𝐿𝑟 ∙ 𝑟1
Where:
The estimation has been made differentiating peak and off-peak periods; then, the average
daily value has been estimated based on an assumption of the amount of trips during
peak/off-peak periods.
Table 90 presents the differentiation of the deadweight loss per vkm on congested network
with respect to context and road type, and the level of utilisation of the capacity of the
road link. Traffic situations are identified based on the volume to capacity ratio of a traffic
link. It is assumed that ‘near capacity’ is related to v/c ratios between 0.8 and 1,
‘congested’ refers to v/c ratios between 0.8 and 1.0, while ‘over capacity’ is considered
when v/c ratio is above 1.2.
________________________________
65 As general remark, it is worth noting that the total external cost of road congestion coincides with the area FCA
and that the area FBA is the part of the total external cost which is already accepted by the users (they have a
willingness to pay higher than the cost borne). Therefore, the area FBA is neither mentioned in the literature,
nor commonly used in developing empirical applications to estimate road congestion cost, which is estimated in
terms of delay cost and deadweight loss, as done in this version of the handbook.
𝐼𝐶 = (𝑇 − 𝑇0 ) ∙ 𝑉𝑂𝑇 ∙ 𝑂𝐹
Where:
— 𝑇 is the actual travel time in the assumed congestion conditions;
— 𝑇0 is the travel time in free flow conditions;
— 𝑉𝑂𝑇 is the value of travel time;
— 𝑂𝐹 is the occupancy factor.
The estimation has been made differentiating peak and off-peak periods; then, the average
daily value has been estimated based on the assumption of the amount of trips during
peak/off-peak periods.
Table 91 presents the differentiation of the delay costs per vkm on congested network with
respect to context and road type, and level of utilisation of the capacity of the road link.
Traffic situations are identified based on the volume to capacity ratio of a traffic link: it is
assumed that ‘near capacity’ is related to v/c ratios between 0.8 and 1.0, while ‘over
capacity’ is considered when v/c ratio is above 1.2.
The estimation has been made separately for urban and inter-urban congestion given the
different type of information available.
The two road types (i.e., urban trunk roads and other urban roads) are differentiated
according to the data already available from the TomTom dataset. The purpose of this
differentiation is to obtain different speed-flow functions. Peak and off-peak periods are
separated to take into account that trip purposes are not the same during different periods
of the day and therefore that values of time and elasticities of demand are also variable.
This segmentation is not directly available in the TomTom dataset so the data has been
elaborated to derive wasted time in congestion separated for peak/off peak periods crossed
with urban trunk roads/other urban roads.
The amount of delay on urban trunk roads (and other urban roads) during off-peak periods
has been estimated in two steps. First, given the ratio between the congestion index and
the average congestion index during peak periods the daily amount of delay on urban trunk
roads (other urban roads) has been estimated. Second, the part of this daily delay occurring
during off-peak periods has been estimated building on the shares of trips in peak and
off-peak (based on travel surveys statistics). Basically, given these shares and given the
amount of delay during peak periods the amount of delay in off-peak time has been
computed to sum the two components to reproduce the total daily delay (on urban trunk
roads and other urban roads respectively).
Building on the information above, the amount of congested network by road type and time
period 𝐶𝑁𝑟𝑝 has been estimated:
𝐷𝑇𝑟𝑝
𝐶𝑁𝑟𝑝 =
𝑇𝑐𝑟 − 𝑇0𝑟
Where:
— 𝐷𝑇𝑟𝑝 is the average delay per day by road type 𝑟 and time period 𝑝;
— 𝑇𝑐𝑟 is the actual travel time in the assumed congestion conditions 𝑐;
— 𝑇0𝑟 is the travel time in free flow conditions by road type 𝑟.
The most representative congestion conditions for each city (based on TomTom data) have
been used to estimate total cost per vehicle, by multiplying the related deadweight loss and
delay cost per car vkm (i.e., 𝐸𝐶𝑝𝑟 and 𝐼𝐶𝑝𝑟, differentiated by time period and road type) by
the related estimated congested network (during peak and off-peak periods).
Finally, total yearly costs in the urban context (i.e., 𝐼𝐶 and 𝐸𝐶) have been estimated using
the population size (i.e., 𝑃), the share of individuals travelling (i.e., 𝑠ℎ𝑇𝑃) and the car
share (i.e., 𝑠ℎ𝐶𝑎𝑟), assuming 230 work days per year66.
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66
This value is consistent with assumptions reported for the estimation of the TomTom congestion index.
Car share data has been defined based on information reported in the EPOMM Modal Split
Tool (TEMS)67 integrated with local sources where data from this tool was not available.
The share of population travelling is estimated as 76% of population living in the city,
according to AUDIMOB data for 2013.
This methodology provided urban congestion costs related to passenger cars for the
European cities included in TomTom data. The generalisation of results to all urban areas
for each country was made as explained below.
It was found that the higher the population size class the city belongs to, the higher the
deadweight congestion cost per vehicle (see Table 92).
Table 92 - Average yearly delay cost and deadweight loss per capita depending on city population size:
TomTom sample data (EURO2016 /capita)
City population size Average delay cost per capita Average Deadweight lossper capita
More than 5 million 898.5 165.0
2 to 5 million 806.6 145.5
1 to 2 million 754.1 134.4
500,000 to 1 million 734.4 130.2
250,000 to 500,000 724.6 128.2
100,000 to 250,000 719.3 127.0
Source: TRT estimation on TomTom data.
Since we are estimating congestion costs in cities, we considered not only national
differences of values of time, but also regional differences in terms of average income per
capita. The average values have been scaled to consider (i) the national values of time (see
Table 86) and (ii) the ratio between regional and national GDP per capita. Therefore, the
estimation of urban congestion cost has been made assuming that the opportunity cost of
time depends on local features and particularly economic activity.
These values of congestion cost per capita by NUTS3 region have then been applied to all
related cities with at least 50,000 inhabitants. The list of cities has been compiled based on
information collected from different sources, e.g. the website City Population as well as
national statistical offices. The list includes about 1,275 cities in 30 European countries
(i.e., EU28 plus Switzerland and Norway).
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67
See also http://www.epomm.eu/tems/
The simplified approach consisted of estimating the number of additional urban areas to
consider in each NUTS3 zone. Two elements have been used for this estimation. First, the
total amount of population in the NUTS3 zone compared to the amount of population in the
cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants located in the same zone. Intuitively if these cities
explain a large share of total population of the NUTS3 it is likely that only a few or even no
cities between 15,000 and 50,000 inhabitants exist in that zone. Vice-versa, if the cities
above 50,000 inhabitants explain only a limited share of total population, a higher number
of smaller cities can be expected.
The second element was the typology of NUTS3 according to the classification
urban/mixed/rural. In rural areas, cities tend to be smaller and so a lower number of
urban areas between 15,000 and 50,000 inhabitants can be expected for a given share of
population not explained by the cities above 50,000 inhabitants. NUTS3 population was
extracted from the Eurostat database. The classification of NUTS3 regions in three
categories: predominantly urban, predominantly rural, mixed is also provided by Eurostat.
The cities with at least 50,000 inhabitants have been associated to the NUTS3 zone they
belong. Then, for each NUTS3 region, the sum of the population living in cities with at least
50,000 inhabitants has been compared to the total population of the region. Depending on
the share of population living in the city/cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants in each
NUTS3 region and the category of the region itself, different rules have been applied to
estimate how many additional urban areas should be considered for the generalisation of
urban congestion cost.
Using the average congestion costs per capita related to passenger cars in a NUTS3 region,
total urban congestion cost by NUTS3 region was quantified. An additional assumption made
has been that in cities with less than 50,000 inhabitants, congestion occurs only in the peak
period of the day.
The map was very helpful to identify where congestion occurs and the range of its severity,
however this source alone did not allow to quantify the amount of demand involved in
congestion. This further element could be estimated by means of parameters used in the
TRUST network model. TRUST is a transport network model covering the whole of Europe
developed by TRT (see the following Box for details).
In TRUST the road network is classified into different link types (e.g., motorways, dual
carriageways roads, etc.). Each link type is associated to specific features; in particular
Road as well non-road transport modes are dealt with in TRUST. The road network includes all the relevant links between the
NUTS3 regions, i.e. motorways, primary roads as well as roads of regional and sub-regional interest. Also ferry connections
(i.e., ro-ro services) between European regions are explicitly modelled with their travel time and fare. Road network links are
separated in different classes, each with specific features in term of capacity, free-flow speed and toll.
The main output of TRUST is the load on road network links in terms of vehicles per day and on non-road links in terms of
either trips or tonnes per day. The model is calibrated to reproduce tonnes-km and passengers-km by country consistent to
the statistics reported in the Eurostat Transport in Figures pocketbook net of intra-NUTS3 demand (available from ETISplus),
which is not assigned to the network. Using load as an input parameter and emissions factors the model also provides
emissions by link for NO x , PM and CO. Figure 23 shows the road network modelled in TRUST.
The TRUST model uses the most recent data made available by the ETISplus 68 project. Apart the features of the network links
(speed, capacity, etc.), the main parameters used in TRUST are:
− speed-flow functions;
The TRUST model has been successfully applied for the assessment of the Eurovignette directive on behalf of the
European Commission.
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68
ETISplus provides a set of data including networks, matrices, etc. to serve for the development of transport
modelling at the European level.
Traffic on road links includes several vehicle types: cars, trucks, etc. Since the congestion
cost associated with each type is different, a segmentation of the estimated loads has been
estimated. Two main classes of road users have been considered, namely: cars and trucks.
The share of demand belonging to each class has been estimated making reference to the
segmentation of traffic on each link assigned by the TRUST model. Indirectly, coaches have
also been considered in the analysis based on the assumption that the share of interurban
coach vkm with respect to car and truck vkm (available as data by country) could be used to
estimate the related traffic on the congested sport.
The most congested peak hour is when motorists experience the highest delays, however
there are other peak and off-peak periods when some congestion occurs. In order to
estimate the overall cost of inter-urban congestion also delays outside the most congested
peak hours should be estimated. This task was addressed using representative road load
profiles for passenger cars and trucks during the day in different countries (i.e. Italy,
France, United Kingdom and the Netherlands).
Road profiles describe how traffic changes over a 24-hour period. Of course in principle
each road has its own profile but the distribution of traffic during the day is very similar for
different roads and also in different countries (although peak time can be slightly different
according to local habits about e.g. working time).
Using these profiles and using the estimated load in the most congested peak time, it has
been possible to estimate the load in each hour. Given the capacity of the road (taken from
TRUST) and considering the sum of all vehicle types (in terms of Passenger Cars equivalent
Units – PCEs) the load/capacity ratios have been estimated for each link and hour.
All vehicles travelling in hours with a load/capacity ratio higher than 1 have been
considered experiencing congestion (congested with load/capacity ratio up to 1.2 and over
capacity with load/capacity ratio above 1.2); furthermore, also vehicles travelling in hours
with a load/capacity ratio between 0.75 and 1 have also been considered experiencing
congestion (near capacity).
After this process, the total number of vehicles incurring congestion on the inter-urban
European networks in an average day has been obtained for each vehicle type (i.e., car and
truck). Vkms in congestion by vehicle type have been estimated multiplying loads by length
of congested network on a link level. The estimation of the amount of yearly traffic is made
assuming 230 work days per year.
F.2.14 Estimation of yearly congestion cost for other road transport categories
With reference to congestion costs for trucks at the urban level, due to lack of information,
the methodology applied for cars cannot be replicated. Therefore, in order to provide some
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69
Data has been used in terms of classes of delay instead of punctual values due to some discrepancies occurring
when joining the TRUST network with the JRC network, which are not perfectly matching.
A similar simplified approach is also applied for LCVs at inter-urban level. The estimation has
been based on the value of congestion costs for cars, the Value of Time and data on vkm at
inter-urban level (estimated/collected within this Handbook).
Although the sample of cities was limited in this case, a statistical analysis has been
performed to estimate the correlation between congestion cost per capita and city
population size (see Table 93). These values of road congestion cost per capita have then
been applied to all related cities with at least 20,000 inhabitants, multiplying the values by
the population data 70.
The estimation of urban congestion costs for Japan followed the same approach, although
TomTom data was not available. Another congestion index, built on top of the traffic layer
within Google Maps, has been used for the city of Tokyo. The index has been adapted to the
TomTom format following the comparison of the data of European cities available in both
Google Maps and TomTom format.
The trend of the correlation between congestion cost per capita and city population size of
North-America has been used to estimate the values for Japan (e.g. average delay cost per
capita for cities between 1 to 2 million inhabitants is about 43% less than the average cost
for cities with more than 5 million inhabitants). These values of road congestion cost per
capita have then been applied to all related cities above 500,000 inhabitants, multiplying
the values by the population data 71.
Table 93 - Average yearly delay cost and deadweight loss per capita depending on city population size in
non-EU regions: TomTom sample data (EURO2016 /capita)
City population size Average delay cost per capita Average Deadweight loss per capita
More than 5 million 1,918.7 275.5
2 to 5 million 1,396.7 228.5
1 to 2 million 1,098.4 201.7
500,000 to 1 million 986.5 191.6
250,000 to 500,000 930.6 186.6
100,000 to 250,000 900.8 183.9
Source: TRT estimation on TomTom data.
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70
For Canada:”Population and dwelling counts highlight tables, 2016 census”. Statistics Canada For US, the 2010
US Census.
71
For Japan: Population data reported by Prefectural Governement.
Table 94 - Passenger Car Value of Time and average occupancy factor in EU28 and non-EU regions72
Table 95 reports total urban congestion costs and urban congestion costs per capita for cars
in Europe and in the non-EU regions under analysis.
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72
For Canada:”The cost of urban congestion in Canada, Transport Canada Environmental Affairs 2006”. For US:
the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and US department of transportation. For Japan: “Valuation of
travel time saving With revealed preference data In Japan: further analysis.”
Czech Republic 2.120 0.591 0.333 0.072 0.265 0.076 0.051 0.012
United Kingdom 30.002 7.239 1.368 0.494 2.622 0.719 0.218 0.019
Czech Republic 0.378 0.105 0.059 0.013 0.033 0.009 0.006 0.001
United Kingdom 5.186 1.251 0.236 0.085 0.414 0.113 0.035 0.003
Cyprus - - - - - - - -
Czech Republic 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.018 0.005 0.003 0.001
Estonia - - - - - - - -
Latvia - - - - - - - -
Malta - - - - - - - -
United Kingdom 0.037 0.010 0.004 0.000 0.158 0.041 0.016 0.001
Country Deadweight loss Delay cost Deadweight Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost
loss
Table 100 - Total trucks, coaches and LCVs inter-urban congestion costs (billion Euro/year, in Euro 2016 )
Table 101 - Total trucks urban congestion costs (billion Euro/year, in Euro 2016 )
* Estimated with a simplified approach based on estimated value of congestion costs for passenger cars.
Table 102 - Total inter-urban congestion costs on motorway network (billion Euro/year, in Euro 2016 )
Cyprus - - - - - - - -
Czech Republic 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.002 0.003 0.001
Estonia - - - - - - - -
Latvia - - - - - - - -
Malta - - - - - - - -
United Kingdom 0.037 0.007 0.001 0.005 0.150 0.041 0.004 0.022
* Estimated with a simplified approach based on estimated value of congestion costs for passenger cars.
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
EU28 3.76 2.61 1.47 7.65 6.54 4.72 3.66 2.54 1.45 5.73 4.67 3.21
Austria 4.18 2.90 1.64 8.49 7.26 5.24 4.06 2.82 1.61 6.36 5.19 3.56
Belgium 4.35 3.01 1.70 8.84 7.55 5.45 4.26 2.96 1.68 6.67 5.44 3.73
Bulgaria 2.41 1.67 0.94 4.90 4.19 3.02 2.31 1.61 0.91 3.62 2.95 2.03
Croatia 2.90 2.01 1.14 5.90 5.04 3.64 2.78 1.93 1.10 4.35 3.55 2.44
Cyprus 3.11 2.16 1.22 6.32 5.41 3.90 2.98 2.07 1.18 4.67 3.81 2.61
Czech Republic 4.13 2.86 1.62 8.39 7.17 5.17 4.03 2.80 1.59 6.31 5.15 3.53
Denmark 3.90 2.70 1.52 7.92 6.77 4.88 3.74 2.60 1.48 5.86 4.78 3.28
Estonia 3.24 2.24 1.27 6.58 5.63 4.06 3.19 2.22 1.26 5.00 4.08 2.80
Finland 3.74 2.59 1.46 7.61 6.50 4.69 3.64 2.53 1.44 5.70 4.65 3.19
France 3.58 2.48 1.40 7.28 6.22 4.49 3.45 2.40 1.36 5.40 4.41 3.02
Germany 3.77 2.61 1.47 7.66 6.55 4.72 3.68 2.56 1.46 5.77 4.70 3.23
Greece 2.99 2.07 1.17 6.08 5.20 3.75 2.94 2.04 1.16 4.61 3.76 2.58
Hungary 3.26 2.26 1.28 6.63 5.67 4.09 3.09 2.15 1.22 4.84 3.95 2.71
Ireland 7.39 5.12 2.89 15.01 12.83 9.26 7.51 5.22 2.97 11.77 9.60 6.59
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
Italy 3.59 2.48 1.40 7.29 6.23 4.49 3.47 2.41 1.37 5.44 4.43 3.04
Latvia 3.29 2.28 1.29 6.69 5.72 4.13 3.09 2.15 1.22 4.84 3.95 2.71
Lithuania 3.58 2.48 1.40 7.27 6.22 4.49 3.36 2.33 1.33 5.26 4.29 2.94
Luxembourg 8.21 5.69 3.21 16.68 14.26 10.29 7.93 5.51 3.13 12.42 10.13 6.95
Malta 3.41 2.36 1.33 6.92 5.92 4.27 3.26 2.27 1.29 5.11 4.17 2.86
Netherlands 4.47 3.10 1.75 9.08 7.76 5.60 4.24 2.95 1.68 6.65 5.42 3.72
Poland 3.34 2.31 1.31 6.79 5.80 4.18 3.28 2.28 1.30 5.13 4.19 2.87
Portugal 3.28 2.27 1.28 6.66 5.69 4.11 3.16 2.20 1.25 4.95 4.04 2.77
Romania 2.99 2.07 1.17 6.08 5.20 3.75 3.44 2.39 1.36 5.39 4.39 3.01
Slovakia 4.09 2.83 1.60 8.31 7.11 5.13 3.89 2.71 1.54 6.10 4.98 3.41
Slovenia 3.16 2.19 1.24 6.43 5.50 3.97 3.02 2.10 1.19 4.73 3.86 2.65
Spain 3.66 2.54 1.43 7.44 6.36 4.59 3.59 2.50 1.42 5.63 4.59 3.15
Sweden 4.08 2.82 1.60 8.29 7.08 5.11 3.98 2.76 1.57 6.23 5.08 3.49
United Kingdom 3.66 2.54 1.43 7.44 6.36 4.59 3.58 2.49 1.41 5.61 4.57 3.14
Norway 4.93 3.42 1.93 10.02 8.57 6.18 4.43 3.08 1.75 6.94 5.66 3.88
Switzerland 5.04 3.49 1.97 10.24 8.76 6.32 4.80 3.34 1.90 7.53 6.14 4.21
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
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73
Estimations for Alberta and British Columbia.
74 Estimations for California and Missouri.
75
Estimations based on the city of Tokyo.
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
EU28 10.87 7.50 4.17 13.52 11.05 7.51 28.36 19.57 10.89 35.30 28.83 19.60
Austria 13.93 9.61 5.35 17.33 14.16 9.62 35.13 24.23 13.48 43.71 35.70 24.27
Belgium 12.55 8.66 4.82 15.61 12.75 8.67 32.39 22.34 12.43 40.30 32.92 22.38
Bulgaria 5.20 3.58 1.99 6.47 5.28 3.59 13.41 9.25 5.15 16.69 13.63 9.26
Croatia 5.87 4.05 2.25 7.30 5.96 4.05 16.52 11.40 6.34 20.56 16.80 11.42
Cyprus 7.28 5.02 2.79 9.06 7.40 5.03 22.85 15.76 8.77 28.44 23.23 15.79
Czech Republic 7.50 5.18 2.88 9.34 7.63 5.18 24.17 16.68 9.28 30.08 24.57 16.70
Denmark 11.56 7.98 4.44 14.39 11.75 7.99 34.09 23.51 13.09 42.42 34.65 23.55
Estonia 7.77 5.36 2.98 9.67 7.90 5.37 20.68 14.27 7.94 25.73 21.02 14.29
Finland 18.27 12.61 7.02 22.74 18.57 12.63 30.12 20.78 11.56 37.48 30.62 20.81
France 13.99 9.65 5.37 17.40 14.21 9.66 28.70 19.80 11.02 35.72 29.18 19.83
Germany 12.22 8.43 4.69 15.20 12.42 8.44 33.99 23.45 13.05 42.30 34.55 23.49
Greece 10.80 7.45 4.15 13.44 10.98 7.46 18.60 12.83 7.14 23.15 18.91 12.85
Hungary 7.82 5.39 3.00 9.73 7.94 5.40 18.60 12.83 7.14 23.15 18.91 12.85
Ireland 13.37 9.22 5.13 16.63 13.58 9.23 50.33 34.72 19.32 62.63 51.15 34.77
Italy 10.42 7.19 4.00 12.97 10.60 7.20 26.63 18.37 10.22 33.14 27.06 18.40
Latvia 7.58 5.23 2.91 9.43 7.70 5.23 17.75 12.25 6.81 22.09 18.04 12.26
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
Lithuania 6.04 4.17 2.32 7.52 6.14 4.17 20.77 14.33 7.97 25.85 21.11 14.35
Luxembourg 18.98 13.09 7.28 23.61 19.29 13.11 70.91 48.92 27.22 88.24 72.08 48.99
Malta 8.19 5.65 3.14 10.19 8.32 5.66 25.97 17.91 9.97 32.31 26.39 17.94
Netherlands 11.57 7.98 4.44 14.40 11.76 7.99 35.13 24.23 13.48 43.71 35.70 24.27
Poland 8.02 5.53 3.08 9.98 8.15 5.54 18.79 12.96 7.21 23.38 19.10 12.98
Portugal 10.55 7.28 4.05 13.13 10.72 7.29 21.34 14.72 8.19 26.56 21.69 14.74
Romania 5.46 3.77 2.10 6.79 5.55 3.77 16.05 11.07 6.16 19.98 16.32 11.09
Slovakia 7.84 5.41 3.01 9.76 7.97 5.42 21.15 14.59 8.12 26.32 21.50 14.61
Slovenia 11.05 7.62 4.24 13.75 11.23 7.63 22.76 15.70 8.74 28.32 23.13 15.72
Spain 12.57 8.67 4.83 15.64 12.78 8.68 25.21 17.39 9.68 31.37 25.62 17.42
Sweden 16.33 11.27 6.27 20.32 16.60 11.28 33.99 23.45 13.05 42.30 34.55 23.49
United Kingdom 10.28 7.09 3.95 12.79 10.45 7.10 29.65 20.45 11.38 36.90 30.14 20.48
Norway 22.52 15.53 8.64 28.02 22.89 15.56 40.89 28.20 15.70 50.88 41.56 28.25
Switzerland 10.51 7.25 4.03 13.08 10.68 7.26 44.38 30.61 17.04 55.23 45.11 30.66
Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity
EU28 25.7 12.4 5.1 73.4 38.8 17.8 23.5 11.3 4.6 47.7 24.7 11.1
Austria 28.5 13.7 5.6 81.6 43.1 19.7 26.1 12.6 5.2 53.0 27.5 12.3
Belgium 29.7 14.3 5.9 84.9 44.8 20.5 27.3 13.2 5.4 55.5 28.8 12.9
Bulgaria 16.5 7.9 3.2 47.1 24.9 11.4 14.8 7.2 2.9 30.1 15.6 7.0
Croatia 19.8 9.6 3.9 56.7 29.9 13.7 17.8 8.6 3.5 36.2 18.8 8.4
Cyprus 21.2 10.2 4.2 60.7 32.1 14.7 19.1 9.2 3.8 38.8 20.1 9.0
Czech Republic 28.2 13.6 5.6 80.6 42.6 19.5 25.9 12.5 5.1 52.5 27.3 12.2
Denmark 26.6 12.8 5.2 76.0 40.2 18.4 24.0 11.6 4.7 48.7 25.3 11.3
Estonia 22.1 10.7 4.4 63.2 33.4 15.3 20.5 9.9 4.0 41.6 21.6 9.7
Finland 25.5 12.3 5.0 73.0 38.6 17.7 23.3 11.3 4.6 47.4 24.6 11.0
France 24.4 11.8 4.8 69.9 36.9 16.9 22.1 10.7 4.4 45.0 23.3 10.4
Germany 25.7 12.4 5.1 73.6 38.9 17.8 23.6 11.4 4.7 48.0 24.9 11.1
Greece 20.4 9.8 4.0 58.4 30.9 14.1 18.9 9.1 3.7 38.4 19.9 8.9
Hungary 22.2 10.7 4.4 63.6 33.6 15.4 19.9 9.6 3.9 40.3 20.9 9.4
Ireland 50.4 24.3 10.0 144.1 76.1 34.9 48.2 23.3 9.5 98.0 50.8 22.8
Italy 24.5 11.8 4.8 70.0 37.0 16.9 22.3 10.7 4.4 45.2 23.5 10.5
Latvia 22.5 10.8 4.4 64.3 34.0 15.5 19.8 9.6 3.9 40.3 20.9 9.4
Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity
Lithuania 24.4 11.8 4.8 69.8 36.9 16.9 21.6 10.4 4.3 43.8 22.7 10.2
Luxembourg 56.0 27.0 11.1 160.2 84.6 38.8 50.9 24.5 10.1 103.4 53.6 24.0
Malta 23.2 11.2 4.6 66.5 35.1 16.1 20.9 10.1 4.1 42.5 22.0 9.9
Netherlands 30.5 14.7 6.0 87.2 46.1 21.1 27.2 13.1 5.4 55.3 28.7 12.9
Poland 22.8 11.0 4.5 65.2 34.4 15.8 21.0 10.1 4.2 42.7 22.2 9.9
Portugal 22.3 10.8 4.4 63.9 33.8 15.5 20.3 9.8 4.0 41.2 21.4 9.6
Romania 20.4 9.8 4.0 58.4 30.8 14.1 22.1 10.6 4.4 44.8 23.3 10.4
Slovakia 27.9 13.5 5.5 79.8 42.2 19.3 25.0 12.1 4.9 50.8 26.3 11.8
Slovenia 21.6 10.4 4.3 61.8 32.6 14.9 19.4 9.3 3.8 39.3 20.4 9.1
Spain 25.0 12.0 4.9 71.4 37.7 17.3 23.1 11.1 4.6 46.9 24.3 10.9
Sweden 27.8 13.4 5.5 79.6 42.0 19.3 25.5 12.3 5.0 51.9 26.9 12.1
United Kingdom 25.0 12.1 4.9 71.5 37.8 17.3 23.0 11.1 4.5 46.7 24.2 10.8
Norway 33.6 16.2 6.6 96.3 50.9 23.3 28.4 13.7 5.6 57.7 29.9 13.4
Switzerland 34.4 16.6 6.8 98.4 52.0 23.8 30.9 14.9 6.1 62.7 32.5 14.6
________________________________
76 Estimations for Alberta and British Columbia.
77
Estimations for California and Missouri.
Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity Over capacity Congested Near capacity
Table 106 - Inter-urban delay congestion costs per vkm borne on congested network for trucks and coaches (Euro Cent/vkm, in Euro 2016 )
EU28 97.6 47.1 19.3 163.9 85.0 38.1 254.8 122.9 50.3 427.7 221.9 99.4
Austria 125.1 60.3 24.7 210.0 108.9 48.8 315.5 152.2 62.3 529.6 274.7 123.0
Belgium 112.7 54.4 22.3 189.2 98.1 43.9 290.9 140.3 57.5 488.3 253.3 113.4
Bulgaria 46.7 22.5 9.2 78.4 40.6 18.2 120.4 58.1 23.8 202.2 104.9 47.0
Croatia 52.7 25.4 10.4 88.5 45.9 20.6 148.4 71.6 29.3 249.2 129.2 57.9
Cyprus 65.4 31.5 12.9 109.8 56.9 25.5 205.3 99.0 40.5 344.5 178.7 80.0
Czech Republic 67.4 32.5 13.3 113.1 58.7 26.3 217.1 104.7 42.9 364.5 189.1 84.7
________________________________
78
Estimations based on the city of Tokyo.
Denmark 103.9 50.1 20.5 174.3 90.4 40.5 306.2 147.7 60.5 514.0 266.6 119.4
Estonia 69.8 33.7 13.8 117.1 60.8 27.2 185.8 89.6 36.7 311.8 161.7 72.4
Finland 164.1 79.2 32.4 275.5 142.9 64.0 270.6 130.5 53.4 454.2 235.6 105.5
France 125.6 60.6 24.8 210.9 109.4 49.0 257.8 124.3 50.9 432.8 224.5 100.5
Germany 109.7 52.9 21.7 184.2 95.6 42.8 305.3 147.3 60.3 512.5 265.9 119.1
Greece 97.0 46.8 19.2 162.9 84.5 37.8 167.1 80.6 33.0 280.5 145.5 65.2
Hungary 70.2 33.9 13.9 117.8 61.1 27.4 167.1 80.6 33.0 280.5 145.5 65.2
Ireland 120.1 57.9 23.7 201.5 104.5 46.8 452.1 218.0 89.3 758.9 393.6 176.3
Italy 93.6 45.2 18.5 157.2 81.5 36.5 239.2 115.3 47.2 401.5 208.3 93.3
Latvia 68.1 32.8 13.4 114.2 59.3 26.5 159.5 76.9 31.5 267.7 138.8 62.2
Lithuania 54.3 26.2 10.7 91.1 47.3 21.2 186.6 90.0 36.9 313.2 162.5 72.8
Luxembourg 170.5 82.2 33.7 286.1 148.4 66.5 637.0 307.2 125.8 1069.2 554.6 248.4
Malta 73.5 35.5 14.5 123.4 64.0 28.7 233.3 112.5 46.1 391.5 203.1 91.0
Netherlands 103.9 50.1 20.5 174.4 90.5 40.5 315.5 152.2 62.3 529.6 274.7 123.0
Poland 72.1 34.7 14.2 120.9 62.7 28.1 168.8 81.4 33.3 283.3 147.0 65.8
Portugal 94.8 45.7 18.7 159.1 82.5 36.9 191.7 92.4 37.9 321.8 166.9 74.7
Romania 49.0 23.6 9.7 82.3 42.7 19.1 144.2 69.5 28.5 242.0 125.6 56.2
Slovakia 70.4 34.0 13.9 118.2 61.3 27.5 190.0 91.6 37.5 318.9 165.4 74.1
Slovenia 99.2 47.9 19.6 166.6 86.4 38.7 204.4 98.6 40.4 343.1 178.0 79.7
Spain 112.9 54.4 22.3 189.5 98.3 44.0 226.5 109.2 44.7 380.1 197.2 88.3
Sweden 146.7 70.8 29.0 246.3 127.7 57.2 305.3 147.3 60.3 512.5 265.9 119.1
United Kingdom 92.3 44.5 18.2 155.0 80.4 36.0 266.3 128.4 52.6 447.1 231.9 103.9
Norway 202.3 97.5 40.0 339.5 176.1 78.9 367.3 177.1 72.5 616.5 319.8 143.2
Switzerland 94.4 45.5 18.6 158.4 82.2 36.8 398.6 192.2 78.7 669.2 347.1 155.5
Country Deadweight Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost
loss
________________________________
79
Based on the whole network (not only congested network).
Country Deadweight Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost
loss
________________________________
80
Based on the whole network (not only congested network).
Country Deadweight Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost
loss
________________________________
81
Based on the whole network (not only congested n etwork).
Country Deadweight Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost
loss
________________________________
82
Based on the whole network (not only congested network).
Table 111 - Car average 83 delay congestion cost and deadweight loss brone per vkm
(€-cent/vkm, in Euro 2016 )
Country Deadweight Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost Deadweight loss Delay cost
loss
________________________________
83
Based on the whole network (not only congested network).
Table 112 - Average 84 inter-urban delay congestion costs and deadweight loss borne for HGV, coaches and LCV
(€-cent/vkm, in Euro 2016 )
Cyprus - - - - - -
________________________________
84
Based on the whole network (not only congested network).
Malta - - - - - -
* Estimated with a simplified approach based on estimated value of congestion costs for passenger cars.
Table 113 - Average urban delay congestion costs and deadweight loss borne for trucks (€-cent/vkm, in
Euro2016)
* Estimated with a simplified approach based on estimated valued for passenger cars.
Table 114 - Average inter-urban delay congestion costs and deadweight loss borne on motorway network
(€-cent/vkm, in Euro 2016 )
Cyprus - - - - - - - -
Czech Republic 0.06 0.06 0.39 0.02 0.26 0.31 2.35 0.10
Estonia - - - - - - - -
Latvia - - - - - - - -
Malta - - - -
United Kingdom 0.05 0.20 0.53 0.04 0.21 1.12 3.09 0.18
* Estimated with a simplified approach based on estimated value of congestion costs for passenger cars.
Table 115 - Car social marginal congestion costs per vkm (€-cent/vkm, in Euro 2016 )
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
EU28 32.1 24.8 17.4 66.3 58.2 47.2 29.4 22.6 15.9 46.4 39.6 31.2
Austria 35.6 27.5 19.4 73.6 64.6 52.4 32.6 25.2 17.7 51.5 44.0 34.6
Belgium 37.1 28.6 20.1 76.6 67.3 54.5 34.2 26.4 18.6 54.0 46.1 36.3
Bulgaria 20.6 15.9 11.2 42.5 37.3 30.2 18.5 14.3 10.1 29.3 25.0 19.7
Croatia 24.8 19.1 13.4 51.2 44.9 36.4 22.3 17.2 12.1 35.2 30.1 23.7
Cyprus 26.5 20.5 14.4 54.8 48.1 39.0 23.9 18.4 13.0 37.8 32.2 25.4
Czech Republic 35.2 27.2 19.1 72.7 63.9 51.8 32.3 25.0 17.6 51.1 43.6 34.3
Denmark 33.2 25.6 18.0 68.6 60.2 48.9 30.0 23.1 16.3 47.4 40.5 31.8
Estonia 27.6 21.3 15.0 57.1 50.1 40.6 25.6 19.8 13.9 40.5 34.6 27.2
Finland 31.9 24.6 17.3 65.9 57.9 46.9 29.2 22.5 15.9 46.1 39.4 31.0
France 30.5 23.6 16.6 63.1 55.4 44.9 27.7 21.4 15.0 43.7 37.3 29.4
Germany 32.1 24.8 17.5 66.4 58.3 47.3 29.5 22.8 16.0 46.7 39.8 31.4
Greece 25.5 19.7 13.9 52.7 46.3 37.5 23.6 18.2 12.8 37.3 31.8 25.1
Hungary 27.8 21.5 15.1 57.5 50.4 40.9 24.8 19.1 13.5 39.2 33.5 26.3
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
Ireland 63.0 48.6 34.2 130.1 114.2 92.6 60.3 46.5 32.7 95.2 81.3 64.0
Italy 30.6 23.6 16.6 63.2 55.5 45.0 27.8 21.5 15.1 44.0 37.5 29.6
Latvia 28.1 21.7 15.3 58.0 50.9 41.3 24.8 19.1 13.5 39.2 33.5 26.3
Lithuania 30.5 23.5 16.6 63.1 55.4 44.9 27.0 20.8 14.6 42.6 36.3 28.6
Luxembourg 70.0 54.0 38.0 144.6 127.0 103.0 63.6 49.1 34.6 100.5 85.8 67.6
Malta 29.0 22.4 15.8 60.0 52.7 42.7 26.2 20.2 14.2 41.3 35.3 27.8
Netherlands 38.1 29.4 20.7 78.7 69.1 56.0 34.1 26.3 18.5 53.8 45.9 36.2
Poland 28.5 22.0 15.5 58.8 51.6 41.9 26.3 20.3 14.3 41.5 35.5 27.9
Portugal 27.9 21.6 15.2 57.7 50.7 41.1 25.3 19.6 13.8 40.0 34.2 26.9
Romania 25.5 19.7 13.9 52.7 46.3 37.5 27.6 21.3 15.0 43.6 37.2 29.3
Slovakia 34.9 26.9 18.9 72.1 63.3 51.3 31.2 24.1 17.0 49.4 42.1 33.2
Slovenia 27.0 20.8 14.7 55.7 48.9 39.7 24.2 18.7 13.2 38.3 32.7 25.7
Spain 31.2 24.1 17.0 64.5 56.6 45.9 28.8 22.3 15.7 45.6 38.9 30.6
Sweden 34.8 26.8 18.9 71.8 63.1 51.1 31.9 24.6 17.3 50.4 43.1 33.9
United Kingdom 31.2 24.1 17.0 64.5 56.7 45.9 28.7 22.2 15.6 45.4 38.7 30.5
Norway 42.1 32.4 22.8 86.9 76.3 61.9 35.5 27.4 19.3 56.1 47.9 37.7
Switzerland 43.0 33.2 23.3 88.8 77.9 63.2 38.6 29.8 20.9 60.9 52.0 40.9
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
________________________________
85
Estimations for Alberta and British Columbia.
86 Estimations for California and Missouri.
87
Estimations based on the city of Tokyo.
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
EU28 122.0 94.2 66.3 159.3 136.0 107.1 318.5 245.8 173.0 415.8 355.0 279.4
Austria 156.4 120.7 84.9 204.2 174.3 137.2 394.4 304.3 214.2 514.9 439.6 346.0
Belgium 140.9 108.7 76.5 183.9 157.0 123.6 363.7 280.6 197.5 474.8 405.3 319.1
Bulgaria 58.3 45.0 31.7 76.2 65.0 51.2 150.6 116.2 81.8 196.6 167.8 132.1
Croatia 65.9 50.8 35.8 86.0 73.4 57.8 185.5 143.2 100.8 242.2 206.8 162.8
Cyprus 81.7 63.1 44.4 106.7 91.1 71.7 256.6 198.0 139.4 335.0 286.0 225.1
Czech Republic 84.3 65.0 45.8 110.0 93.9 73.9 271.4 209.4 147.4 354.4 302.5 238.1
Denmark 129.8 100.2 70.5 169.5 144.7 113.9 382.7 295.3 207.9 499.7 426.6 335.8
Estonia 87.2 67.3 47.4 113.9 97.2 76.5 232.2 179.2 126.1 303.1 258.8 203.7
Finland 205.2 158.3 111.5 267.9 228.7 180.0 338.2 261.0 183.7 441.6 377.0 296.7
France 157.0 121.2 85.3 205.0 175.0 137.8 322.3 248.7 175.1 420.8 359.2 282.8
Germany 137.2 105.9 74.5 179.1 152.9 120.4 381.7 294.5 207.3 498.3 425.4 334.9
Greece 121.3 93.6 65.9 158.4 135.2 106.4 208.9 161.2 113.5 272.7 232.8 183.3
Hungary 87.8 67.7 47.7 114.6 97.8 77.0 208.9 161.2 113.5 272.7 232.8 183.3
Ireland 150.1 115.8 81.5 195.9 167.3 131.7 565.1 436.0 307.0 737.8 629.8 495.8
Italy 117.0 90.3 63.6 152.8 130.5 102.7 299.0 230.7 162.4 390.3 333.2 262.3
Latvia 85.1 65.6 46.2 111.1 94.8 74.6 199.3 153.8 108.3 260.2 222.2 174.9
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
Lithuania 67.8 52.4 36.9 88.6 75.6 59.5 233.3 180.0 126.7 304.5 260.0 204.7
Luxembourg 213.1 164.4 115.7 278.2 237.5 187.0 796.2 614.4 432.5 1039.5 887.4 698.6
Malta 91.9 70.9 49.9 120.0 102.4 80.6 291.6 225.0 158.4 380.7 325.0 255.8
Netherlands 129.9 100.2 70.6 169.6 144.8 114.0 394.4 304.3 214.2 514.9 439.6 346.0
Poland 90.1 69.5 48.9 117.6 100.4 79.0 211.0 162.8 114.6 275.5 235.2 185.1
Portugal 118.4 91.4 64.3 154.6 132.0 103.9 239.6 184.9 130.2 312.8 267.1 210.2
Romania 61.3 47.3 33.3 80.0 68.3 53.8 180.2 139.1 97.9 235.3 200.9 158.1
Slovakia 88.0 67.9 47.8 114.9 98.1 77.2 237.5 183.2 129.0 310.1 264.7 208.4
Slovenia 124.0 95.7 67.4 161.9 138.2 108.8 255.5 197.2 138.8 333.6 284.8 224.2
Spain 141.1 108.9 76.7 184.3 157.3 123.8 283.1 218.4 153.8 369.6 315.5 248.4
Sweden 183.4 141.5 99.6 239.4 204.4 160.9 381.7 294.5 207.3 498.3 425.4 334.9
United Kingdom 115.4 89.0 62.7 150.7 128.6 101.2 332.9 256.9 180.8 434.6 371.0 292.1
Norway 252.8 195.1 137.3 330.1 281.8 221.8 459.1 354.2 249.4 599.4 511.7 402.8
Switzerland 118.0 91.0 64.1 154.0 131.5 103.5 498.3 384.5 270.7 650.6 555.4 437.2
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
EU28 64.2 49.5 34.9 132.6 116.4 94.4 58.7 45.3 31.9 92.7 79.2 62.3
Austria 71.3 55.0 38.7 147.3 129.3 104.8 65.2 50.3 35.4 103.0 87.9 69.2
Belgium 74.2 57.2 40.3 153.2 134.5 109.1 68.3 52.7 37.1 108.0 92.2 72.5
Bulgaria 41.1 31.7 22.3 85.0 74.6 60.5 37.1 28.6 20.1 58.6 50.0 39.4
Croatia 49.5 38.2 26.9 102.3 89.8 72.8 44.6 34.4 24.2 70.5 60.2 47.4
Cyprus 53.1 40.9 28.8 109.7 96.3 78.1 47.8 36.9 26.0 75.5 64.5 50.8
Czech Republic 70.4 54.3 38.2 145.5 127.7 103.6 64.7 49.9 35.1 102.2 87.2 68.7
Denmark 66.4 51.3 36.1 137.3 120.5 97.7 60.0 46.3 32.6 94.8 80.9 63.7
Estonia 55.3 42.6 30.0 114.2 100.2 81.3 51.2 39.5 27.8 81.0 69.1 54.4
Finland 63.8 49.2 34.7 131.9 115.8 93.9 58.4 45.0 31.7 92.2 78.7 62.0
France 61.1 47.1 33.2 126.2 110.8 89.8 55.3 42.7 30.1 87.4 74.6 58.8
Germany 64.3 49.6 34.9 132.8 116.6 94.5 59.1 45.6 32.1 93.3 79.7 62.7
Greece 51.0 39.4 27.7 105.5 92.6 75.1 47.2 36.4 25.6 74.6 63.7 50.1
Hungary 55.6 42.9 30.2 114.9 100.9 81.8 49.6 38.3 27.0 78.4 66.9 52.7
Ireland 125.9 97.2 68.4 260.3 228.4 185.3 120.6 93.0 65.5 190.5 162.6 128.0
Italy 61.2 47.2 33.2 126.4 110.9 90.0 55.7 43.0 30.2 88.0 75.1 59.1
Latvia 56.2 43.3 30.5 116.1 101.9 82.6 49.6 38.3 27.0 78.4 66.9 52.7
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
Lithuania 61.0 47.1 33.2 126.1 110.7 89.8 53.9 41.6 29.3 85.2 72.7 57.2
Luxembourg 140.0 108.0 76.0 289.3 253.9 205.9 127.3 98.2 69.1 201.0 171.6 135.1
Malta 58.1 44.8 31.5 120.0 105.3 85.4 52.3 40.4 28.4 82.6 70.5 55.5
Netherlands 76.2 58.8 41.4 157.5 138.2 112.1 68.1 52.6 37.0 107.6 91.9 72.3
Poland 56.9 43.9 30.9 117.7 103.3 83.8 52.6 40.6 28.6 83.1 70.9 55.8
Portugal 55.9 43.1 30.3 115.4 101.3 82.2 50.7 39.1 27.5 80.1 68.4 53.8
Romania 51.0 39.4 27.7 105.4 92.5 75.0 55.2 42.6 30.0 87.2 74.4 58.6
Slovakia 69.8 53.8 37.9 144.2 126.5 102.6 62.5 48.2 33.9 98.7 84.3 66.3
Slovenia 54.0 41.6 29.3 111.5 97.9 79.4 48.4 37.4 26.3 76.5 65.3 51.4
Spain 62.4 48.2 33.9 129.0 113.2 91.8 57.7 44.5 31.3 91.1 77.8 61.2
Sweden 69.5 53.6 37.8 143.7 126.1 102.3 63.9 49.3 34.7 100.9 86.1 67.8
United Kingdom 62.5 48.2 33.9 129.1 113.3 91.9 57.4 44.3 31.2 90.7 77.5 61.0
Norway 84.1 64.9 45.7 173.8 152.6 123.7 71.1 54.8 38.6 112.2 95.8 75.4
Switzerland 85.9 66.3 46.7 177.6 155.9 126.4 77.1 59.5 41.9 121.8 104.0 81.9
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
EU28 48.1 37.1 26.1 99.4 87.3 70.8 44.0 34.0 23.9 69.6 59.4 46.7
Austria 53.5 41.2 29.0 110.5 97.0 78.6 48.9 37.7 26.6 77.3 66.0 51.9
Belgium 55.6 42.9 30.2 114.9 100.9 81.8 51.3 39.5 27.8 81.0 69.1 54.4
Bulgaria 30.8 23.8 16.8 63.7 56.0 45.4 27.8 21.5 15.1 43.9 37.5 29.5
Croatia 37.1 28.7 20.2 76.7 67.4 54.6 33.5 25.8 18.2 52.9 45.1 35.5
Cyprus 39.8 30.7 21.6 82.2 72.2 58.5 35.9 27.7 19.5 56.6 48.4 38.1
Czech Republic 52.8 40.7 28.7 109.1 95.8 77.7 48.5 37.4 26.3 76.6 65.4 51.5
Denmark 49.8 38.4 27.1 103.0 90.4 73.3 45.0 34.7 24.4 71.1 60.7 47.8
Estonia 41.4 32.0 22.5 85.6 75.2 61.0 38.4 29.7 20.9 60.7 51.8 40.8
Finland 47.9 36.9 26.0 98.9 86.8 70.4 43.8 33.8 23.8 69.2 59.0 46.5
France 45.8 35.3 24.9 94.7 83.1 67.4 41.5 32.0 22.5 65.6 56.0 44.1
Germany 48.2 37.2 26.2 99.6 87.4 70.9 44.3 34.2 24.1 70.0 59.8 47.0
Greece 38.3 29.5 20.8 79.1 69.4 56.3 35.4 27.3 19.2 55.9 47.8 37.6
Hungary 41.7 32.2 22.7 86.2 75.6 61.3 37.2 28.7 20.2 58.8 50.2 39.5
Ireland 94.5 72.9 51.3 195.2 171.3 138.9 90.4 69.8 49.1 142.9 122.0 96.0
Italy 45.9 35.4 24.9 94.8 83.2 67.5 41.8 32.2 22.7 66.0 56.3 44.3
Latvia 42.1 32.5 22.9 87.0 76.4 62.0 37.2 28.7 20.2 58.8 50.2 39.5
Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near Over Congested Near
capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity
Lithuania 45.8 35.3 24.9 94.6 83.0 67.3 40.4 31.2 22.0 63.9 54.5 42.9
Luxembourg 105.0 81.0 57.0 217.0 190.4 154.4 95.4 73.6 51.8 150.8 128.7 101.3
Malta 43.6 33.6 23.7 90.0 79.0 64.1 39.2 30.3 21.3 62.0 52.9 41.7
Netherlands 57.2 44.1 31.0 118.1 103.7 84.1 51.1 39.4 27.8 80.7 68.9 54.2
Poland 42.7 33.0 23.2 88.2 77.5 62.8 39.4 30.4 21.4 62.3 53.2 41.9
Portugal 41.9 32.3 22.8 86.6 76.0 61.6 38.0 29.3 20.7 60.1 51.3 40.4
Romania 38.3 29.5 20.8 79.0 69.4 56.3 41.4 31.9 22.5 65.4 55.8 43.9
Slovakia 52.3 40.4 28.4 108.1 94.9 77.0 46.9 36.2 25.5 74.0 63.2 49.8
Slovenia 40.5 31.2 22.0 83.6 73.4 59.5 36.3 28.0 19.7 57.4 49.0 38.6
Spain 46.8 36.1 25.4 96.7 84.9 68.9 43.3 33.4 23.5 68.3 58.3 45.9
Sweden 52.1 40.2 28.3 107.8 94.6 76.7 47.9 37.0 26.0 75.7 64.6 50.8
United Kingdom 46.9 36.2 25.5 96.8 85.0 68.9 43.1 33.2 23.4 68.0 58.1 45.7
Norway 63.1 48.7 34.3 130.4 114.4 92.8 53.3 41.1 28.9 84.2 71.9 56.6
Switzerland 64.5 49.7 35.0 133.2 116.9 94.8 57.8 44.6 31.4 91.4 78.0 61.4
For rail Rotoli et al. (2016) reviewed different analytical and optimisation procedures to
evaluate rail networks capacity. The level of detail, data availability and complexity has
been linked with the evaluation of utilised capacity, and in turn, with the probability of
expected ‘reactionary delay’. The methodologies considered were the UIC’s Analytical
Method (Code 405R) and Compression Method (Code 406), the Capacity Utilisation Index
(CUI) Method and the STRELE Formula (i.e., Method of Schwanhäußer). The analysis
suggests that the methodologies considered are a useful way to estimate the congestion and
the trade-offs between capacity of a railway network, delays and related costs.
Vromans et al. (2006) and Haith et al. (2014) suggested an alternative methodology to CUI,
based on the theory that the level of ‘reactionary delay’ can be determined by the
minimum gaps that exist between trains.
Brunel et al. (2013) analysed the relationship between traffic density (i.e., number of trains
per hour), reliability rate and average delay in order to assess rail congestion. The analysis
focussed on 42 lines of the French rail network estimating to what extent the delay of a
train (i.e., direct delay) impacts on another train (i.e., indirect delay). Estimations were
diversified for 9 different categories to account for the type of train (i.e., high speed,
intercity and regional) and traffic density (i.e., low, medium and high). However, the
authors did not develop estimations of the marginal costs in monetary terms.
Jansson and Lang (2013) developed a methodology to evaluate the external delay costs in
rail transport. In the application for passengers transport in Sweden, the authors estimated,
how the marginal cost-based charges (initially limited to external costs for wear and tear,
maintenance, emissions, etc.) would change if delays due to additional departures were
also taken into account. For example, if an additional departure of a commuter train leads
to a delay of two minutes in the network shared with high speed trains, the authors
estimated the marginal external cost effect of this delay to correspond to a 25% increase in
the commuter train fare for this additional journey, and a 5% increase in the fares for high
speed trains.
Maritime shipping: By considering cargo handling and port logistics (stevedoring) costs and
wait time records at several international ports of the 1970s, the UNITE project (Doll,
2002)concludes that there are no external congestion costs in seaport operations.
The analysis of EU and US ports in the COMPETE project (Schade, et al., 2006)
however,clearly show that capacity in particular in North American ports is approaching its
limits and that congestion at cargo handling and storage facilities is a priority issue. The
GRACE D4 report (Meersman, et al., 2006) estimates the additional (marginal) crew costs of
a vessel having to wait to call at a port at € 185 per hour. However, as ports usually do not
keep records of vessel waiting times the calculation of price relevant marginal external
congestion costs in maritime transport is not easy to carry out.
Inland navigation: COMPETE results suggest that European countries do not face any
capacity problems in their inland waterway networks. However, the GRACE case studies
found a number of local bottlenecks at locks, although they largely depend on local
conditions. Delay times range between zero and 160 minutes, in the latter case passage
Table 119 - Marginal external costs of congestion of rail freight transport €-cent/1,000 tkm (2016 prices)
Country Value
Austria 35.74
Belgium 35.89
Bulgaria 65.25
Cyprus n.a.
Czech Republic 43.56
Denmark 32.01
Estonia 63.54
Finland 36.30
France 33.64
Germany 32.96
Greece 42.49
Hungary 53.37
Ireland 41.30
Italy 31.60
Latvia 62.60
Lithuania 51.76
Luxembourg 46.23
Malta n.a.
Netherlands 32.87
Poland 47.47
Portugal 34.30
Romania 120.82
Slovakia 58.62
Slovenia 49.44
Spain 40.40
Sweden 37.31
United Kingdom 37.01
EU average 43.20
Source: (Christidis & Brons, 2016).
— Habitat degradation due to emissions: Habitat degradation can also occur via the
emission of air pollutants of other toxic substances (e.g. heavy metals, PAH) or road salt.
These effects again lead to biodiversity loss and therefore external costs. The biodiversity
loss due to air pollution is already covered in the air pollution Chapter (4), where all
adverse impacts of air pollution are included. The negative effects of the emission of
toxic substances are covered in a separate chapter (‘other external costs’).
— Visual intrusion (landscape scenery): Transport infrastructure often also have a negative
impact on the landscape and its scenery. This is not a negative effect for the
environment, but is anthropogenic and negatively affecting inhabitants or visitors of a
— Invasive plants: Invasive plants are appearing very often along transport infrastructure
and are sometimes even spread thanks to transport infrastructure.
— Light emmissions: The emission (and immission) of light of transport vehicles during the
night can negatively impact natural ecosystems (e.g. natural fauna).
In external costs literature, the first effect — habitat loss — has been discussed in
several studies. Also the habitat fragmentation has been analysed in certain studies.
Habitat degradation has been an issue in several studies when focussing on the emission of
air pollutants and toxic substances. Other effects have not been quantitatively analysed and
reported in the literature.
The corresponding Chapter (9) is therefore focussing on the habitat damage, i.e. the first of
the three effects described above.
Literature Title of Study and main focus Effects covered Results, type of cost factors
INFRAS, IWW 2004 (UIC) External costs of transport in Habitat loss: unsealing costs, Total and average costs:
Europe restoration costs € and €/pkm, €/tkm
(Nateco; Econcept, 2004) External costs of transport Habitat loss & fragmentation: Total and average costs:
due to impacts on nature and restoration cost approached; CHF and CHF/pkm, CHF/tkm
landscape (first bottom-up bottom-up calculation based
calculation) on aerial photo analysis
(NEEDS, 2006a) Assessment of Biodiversity Habitat loss: restoration costs Cost factors per m2 and
Losses; ecosystem type
Report of the EU-research
project NEEDS
DG MOVE 2008 1st Handbook on estimation Costs of nature and landscape: Only qualitative information
of external costs of transport only short overview on the and some selective cost
(Infras, CE Delft, ISI & relevant effects and data factors from NEEDS and
University of Gdansk, INFRAS, IWW 2004
2008)
(CE Delft, INFRAS & External costs of transport in Habitat loss: unsealing costs, Total and average costs:
Fraunhofer ISI, 2011) Europe for 2008 restoration costs € and €/pkm, €/tkm
(UBA, 2018) Methodenkonvention 3.0 on Habitat loss & fragmentation, Cost factors per vehicle type:
the estimation of based on (INFRAS en Ecoplan, €/vkm and €/pkm, €/tkm
environmental costs 2018)
(INFRAS en Ecoplan, External costs of transport in Habitat loss & fragmentation Total costs and average
2018) Switzerland 2015 (update costs: CHF/pkm, CHF/tkm
study, bottom-up calculation)
G.3.3 Conclusions
The most detailed bottom-up calculations of the cost of habitat damage have been made by
the European research project NEEDS (2006) and in the latest Swiss study by INFRAS,
Ecoplan (2018). Additionally, the most recent UBA study (UBA, 2018) also covers up-to-date
cost factors for the negative effects on habitats, mainly also based on INFRAS, Ecoplan
(2018).
In the main Chapter 9, the calculation of cost factors for nature and landscape focusses on
habitat damage (habitat loss and fragmentation) and is mainly based on the most recent
bottom-up study on external costs of transport in Switzerland (INFRAS en Ecoplan, 2018).
Vehicle Accidents Air Climate Noise Congestion WTT Habitat Total Total
category pollution change Delay costs Deadweight emissions damage (congestion (congestion
loss costs based on based on
delay costs deadweight
genereated) loss costs
genereated)
Passenger car 6.08 12.99 7.7 4.24 9 56.71 54.21
Passenger car –
1.55 7.08 4 2.31 5.1
petrol 13.5 3.2 0.7
Passenger car –
4.58 5.87 3.7 1.92 3.9
diesel
Motorcycle 1 0.31 0.28 1.1 n/a n/a 0.16 0.13 2.98
Bus 0.02 0.03 0 0.01 0.01 1.75 1.67
0.2 0.1 0.02
Coach 0.31 0.43 0.3 0.14 0.2
LCV 3.01
1.9 3.15 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.9 1.3 12.66 11.96
HGV 1.93
5.5 2.63 2.3 0.4 0.1 1.04 1.56 15.36 15.06
Vehicle category Accidents Air pollution Climate Noise Congestion WTT Habitat Total Total
change Delay costs Deadweight emissions damage (congestion (congestion
loss costs based on based on
delay costs) deadweight
loss costs)
Passenger transport (€-cent per pkm)
Passenger car 0.55 1.17 0.69 0.38 0.81 5.10 4.88
Passenger car –
0.26 1.2 0.68 0.39 0.20
petrol 1.22 0.29 0.06
Passenger car –
0.88 1.13 0.71 0.37 0.20
diesel
Motorcycle 3.57 1.12 1.01 3.88 n/a n/a 0.57 0.48 10.86
Bus 0.28 0.38 0.17 0.14 0.17 1.18 1.12
0.14 0.07 0.01
Coach 0.22 0.31 0.22 0.1 0.14 1.19 1.14
LCV (€-cent per vkm)
LCV 2.89 3.03
1.81 1.46 0.94 0.21 0.87 1.25 12.51 11.78
Vehicle Accidents Air pollution Climate Noise Congestion WTT Habitat Total Total
category change Delay Deadweight loss emissions damage (congestion (congestion
costs costs based on delay based on
costs) deadweight loss
costs)
Road
Passenger car 30.9
48.3 23.7 15.9 24.3 491.9 356.4
Passenger car
185.4 7.9 27.4 12.3 163.4 27.9 9.0 13.1
– petrol
Passenger car
23.1 20.8 11.3 6.9 11.2
– diesel
Motorcycle 19.1 1.8 1.4 14.4 n/a n/a 0.8 0.5 38.0
Bus 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2
4.4 4.0 0.7
Coach 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 17.2 13.9
LCV 17.3 14.1 11.6 4.9 47.5 8.1 3.3 4.1 102.8 63.4
HGV 21.0 13.2 8.6 8.5 13.0 2.2 3.4 3.4 71.1 60.3
Rail
High speed
0.062 0.002 0 0.341 n/a n/a 0.307 0.662
passenger train 1.4
Conventional
electric 0.027 0 2.431 n/a n/a 2.402 1.338
passenger train
1.932 10.0
Conventional
diesel 0.444 0.173 0.700 n/a n/a 0.060 0.448
passenger train
Electric freight
0.012 0 2.063 n/a n/a 0.497 0.773
train
0.270 5.1
Diesel freight
0.622 0.208 0.335 n/a n/a 0.115 0.209
train
IWT
IWT Vessel 0.089 1.927 0.395 n/a n/a n/a 0.197 0.285 2.9
Accidents Air pollution Climate change Noise Congestion WTT emissions Habitat damage Total
Aviation
Selected EU27 airports 0.92
0.07 18.53 0.47 n/a 7.43 0.05 27.47
Maritime
Selected EU27 ports 0.07 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Sections J.3, J.4 and J.5 present additional marginal cost figures for the categories air
pollution, climate change and well-to-tank for the reference vehicles that have been
defined for road. These reference vehicles have been used for the overview in Sections 4.4,
5.4 and 8.4. They have been based on the main cost drivers for climate and WTT cost which
are the combination of fuel type and fuel efficiency. These have been combined with the
main cost drivers for air pollution, which are the Euro standard and road type (for cars and
LCVs).
J.2.1 Road
Table 125 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – passenger cars (in €-cent/pkm)
Marginal costs for dense traffic on rural motorways during the day
2016 Euro 6 fuel efficient car: 141 g/km 0.08 0.86 0.23
2016 Euro 6 fuel inefficient car: 256 g/km 0.08 1.56 0.41
0.0
2000 Euro 3 fuel efficient car: 176 g/km 0.11 1.08 0.37
2000 Euro 3 fuel inefficient car: 243 g/km 0.11 1.49 0.54
Table 126 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – motorcycles and mopeds (in €-cent/pkm)
Marginal costs for dense traffic on rural motorways during the day
Table 127 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – buses (in €-cent/pkm)
Reference vehicle Accident Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion WTT Habitat
Marginal costs for dense traffic on rural motorways during the day
Table 128 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – coaches (in €-cent/pkm)
Reference vehicle Accident Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion WTT Habitat
Marginal costs for dense traffic on rural motorways during the day
Fuel inefficient Euro VI coach: 742 g/km 0.02 0.34 0.06 0.0
0.05 0.02 3.0
Fuel efficient Euro VI coach: 583 g/km 0.34 0.28 0.05
2016 fuel efficient Euro 6 LCV 135 0.76 1.7 99.4 0.29
2.19 1.44
g/km
Marginal costs for dense traffic on rural motorways during the day
2016 fuel efficient Euro 6 LCV 135 0.37 0.01 44.0 0.28
1.94 1.39
g/km
Fuel efficient HGV: 370 g/km Euro VI - diesel 0.34 1.00 0.22
(3.5-7.5 t)
Low fuel efficiency Euro III - diesel (3.5-7.5 t) 2.59 1.39 0.32
Fuel efficient HGV: 596 g/km Euro VI - diesel 0.14 0.66 0.15
(7.5-16 t)
Fuel inefficient HGVs: 716 g/km Euro III - 1.61 0.83 0.19
diesel (7.5-16 t)
Fuel inefficient HGVs: 875 g/km Euro III - 1.84 0.74 0.17
diesel (16-32 t)
Fuel efficient HGV: 848 g/km Euro VI - diesel 0.11 0.66 0.15
(> 32 t)
Fuel efficient HGV: 848 g/km Euro III - diesel 1.69 0.66 0.6 0.15
(> 32 t)
Fuel inefficient HGVs: 1,033 g/km Euro III - 1.69 0.83 0.19
diesel (> 32 t)
Marginal costs for dense traffic on rural motorways during the day
Fuel efficient HGV: 370 g/km Euro VI - diesel 0.06 1.00 0.23
(3.5-7.5 t)
Low fuel efficiency Euro VI - diesel (3.5-7.5 t) 0.07 0.06 1.14 0.01 4.3 0.27 0.0
Fuel efficient HGV: 370 g/km Euro III - diesel 1.01 1.00 0.23
(3.5-7.5 t)
Low fuel efficiency Euro III - diesel (3.5-7.5 t) 1.01 1.14 0.27
Fuel efficient HGV: 596 g/km Euro VI - diesel 0.03 0.49 0.11
(7.5-16 t)
Fuel inefficient HGVs: 716 g/km Euro III - 0.50 0.58 0.14
diesel (7.5-16 t)
Fuel inefficient HGVs: 875 g/km Euro III - 0.50 0.44 0.10
diesel (16-32 t)
Fuel efficient HGV: 848 g/km Euro VI - diesel 0.03 0.41 0.10
(> 32 t)
Fuel efficient HGV: 848 g/km Euro III - diesel 0.44 0.41 0.005 0.10
(> 32 t)
Fuel inefficient HGVs: 1,033 g/km Euro III - 0.44 0.49 0.11
diesel (> 32 t)
J.2.2 Rail
Table 131 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – passenger trains (in €-cent/pkm)
Reference vehicle Accident Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion WTT Habitat
Table 132 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – freight trains (in €-cent/tkm)
Reference vehicle Accident Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion WTT Habitat
Reference vehicle Accident Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion WTT Habitat
J.2.4 Maritime
Table 134 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – maritime transport (in €-cent/pkm (ferry) and €-cent/tkm
(vessels))
Reference vehicle Accident Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion WTT Habitat
J.2.5 Aviation
Table 135 – Synthesis of marginal external costs 2016 for EU28 – aviation (in €-cent/pkm)
Reference vehicle Accident Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion WTT Habitat
Vehicle Fuel Fuel efficiency (average real- COPERT category Motor- Urban Other Average
category type world CO 2 emissions) ways roads roads all roads
LPG 169 g/km Petrol medium Euro 6 0.08 0.15 0.08 0.10
CNG 136 g/km Petrol medium Euro 6 0.08 0.14 0.08 0.10
Full
0 g/km Euro 6 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05
electric
PHEV -
133 g/km Petrol medium Euro 6 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.07
petrol
Vehicle category Fuel type Fuel efficiency (average type Motor- Urban Other Average all
approval CO 2 emissions) ways roads roads roads
Full
0 g/km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
electric
PHEV -
39 g/km 0.29 0.22 0.23 0.25
petrol
Diesel Fuel efficient HGV: 370 g/km 4.49 4.49 4.49 4.49
HGV 3.5 t-7.5 t
Fuel inefficient HGV: 450 g/km 5.15 6.25 4.97 5.46
Vehicle category Fuel type Fuel efficiency (average real-world CO 2 Motor- Urban Other Average all
emissions in g/km) ways roads roads roads
Passenger car Petrol 2016 fuel efficient car: 99 g/km 0.33 0.38 0.30 0.34
2000 fuel efficient car: 161 g/km 0.41 0.48 0.37 0.42
Full
0 g/km 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84
electric
PHEV -
39 g/km 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.09
petrol
The file “Marginal costs air pollution, climate, WTT, noise” contains marginal costs for:
— Noise, for road and rail in the EU28;
— Reference cases for climate change, air pollution and WTT for all modes in the EU28;
— Selected cases for climate change, air pollution and WTT for road transport in the EU28.
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