ACM FINAL PROJECT

GROUP MEMBERS

HASSAN SHAHEER BAM-F18-214

SADIA RAMZAN BAM-F18-363

SAMEEN ARSHAD BAM-S19-078

JAMSHAID IQBAL BAM-F18-122

AHMED HASHMI BAM-S19-006

SUBMITTED TO:

SIR BILAL AHMAD

Final Term Project of Airport Capacity Management

Table of content:
INTRODUCTION…………………………………………….………………………..... 03
i. Airline profile & category……………………………………………………...….03
ii. Vision & mission…………..……………………………………………………...04
iii. Values & slogan……………………….…….…………………………………….05
iv. Goals, objectives & ethics………………..……………………………………….05
v. Airline Hierarchy……………………..……………………………………...……06
vi. Employee size...……………………………………………………………………06
vii. Departments of Airline………………………………..…………………………..06
viii. History of Airline……………………………………………………………….... 08
Importance of CRM Training program towards safety of airline........................................07
Airline/organization perspective towards the Crew Resource Management.......................12
Federal Aviation Administration recommend rules and regulation towards CRM in
Aviation...............................................................................................................................12
Any incident or accident of airline typically related to human error...................................13
What strategy airline shall adopted for promotion of safety and reduction of Human
error.....................................................................................................................................19
Airline CRM Training…………………………………………………….………………14
i. Need Assessment……………………………………………………..…………...15
ii. Implementing Training…………………………………………………………....15
iii. Evaluate the Training…………………………………………………………..….16
Recommendation…………………………………..……………………………………....19
Findings………………………………………………………..…………………………..20
Conclusions……………………………………………………...…………………………21
 Introduction
Major airport investments are essential to meeting the growing passenger and cargo demand,
but they are often contentious and controversial. The risks and uncertainties, particularly in
relation to future aviation demand, make the decision-making process difficult. Benefits of
airport expansion projects are dispersed and costs, notably noise, are concentrated, which
often creates significant opposition to such developments. And even if such developments
are agreed, it takes a very long time to build new airport infrastructure. Governments and the
aviation sector in general are therefore interested in examining how to improve utilization of
available airport capacity without building new infrastructure.

Scope:
Many governments have ambitious plans for building new airports and expanding existing
airport sites, but these developments are often not able to keep pace with rapidly growing
aviation demand. Governments and the aviation sector in general are therefore interested in
examining how to improve utilization of available airport capacity without building new
infrastructure. A Roundtable organized by the International Transport Forum at the OECD (ITF)
in cooperation with the Institute Mexican del Transport (IMT) brought together transport
economists and operational research experts as well as government and industry representatives
to identify effective methods of dealing with airport capacity constraints within existing airport
infrastructure. The Roundtable reviewed different factors that have an impact on capacity,
including:
 Physical airside and landside constraints
 Airline and airport business models
 Government regulation of airport assets
 Environmental and other policy constraints

The experts then examined the technological and policy levers that can be used to make the use
of airport capacity more efficient. Technological levers:

 Collaborative Decision Making

 Co-ordinated Arrival Departure Management
 Implementation of time-based separation, rather than distance-based separation
 Better airside and landside coordination through simulation modelling
Policy levers:
  Administrative and market-based capacity management
 Eliminating price discrimination against larger aircraft
 Redistribution of traffic in multi-airport systems

Air connectivity and airport capacity considerations

Policy makers have an interest in making use of existing airport capacity more efficient insofar
this would benefit the users of aviation and the wider economy. At the heart of these
considerations is the concept of air connectivity (see Box 1). Air connectivity benefits the
economy, through facilitating the movement of goods and services, people, ideas, knowledge
and investment. It is thus important for policy makers to understand both how to improve air
connectivity outcomes and how different government policies and regulations impact air
connectivity. The Roundtable participants were largely in agreement that determining what
constitutes an improved connectivity outcome requires both a careful examination of all
dimensions of connectivity but also some judgment, possibly by the regulator, as well as
consensus agreement of all aviation stakeholders on how to trade different dimensions of
connectivity against one another. Increasing throughput of an airport should be considered in the
context of its potential impacts on delays, the level of passenger service, as well as all socio-
economic impacts relating to air transport (see next section). When establishing standards with
respect to delays and the level of service, the implications on the welfare of passengers need to
be taken into account. For example, there may be rationale to accommodate more flights during
Christmas time: an increased supply of available seats would likely reduce costs for customers
who are often willing to get home and the resulting increased delay would likely be more than
offset in terms of passengers’ welfare by the reduced cost and less suppressed demand.
Similarly, there may be a rationale to accommodate more flights at the busiest times of the day
through (if possible) higher values of the declared capacities, as practiced as some Level 3
airports. These can be compensated by a schedule slack at off-peak hours. The Roundtable
participants concluded that this was an important area for potential future research.

Defining and measuring air connectivity

In simple terms, air connectivity is about making travel as easy and affordable as possible, given
the geographical separation involved. Defining and measuring air connectivity is challenging
because it involves scrutinizing many different factors that affect it, including terminal and
runway capacity, the quality of the management of airport operations, accessibility of the airport
to potential passengers, and the affordability of travel. No airport can provide air connectivity
unless airlines decide to use it. ITF (2014b) points out that there are several important factors in
the choices airlines make as to which airports to use: potential market size, ease of market
access, advantages of spatial concentration, airport visit costs and service levels. As the level of
air connectivity provided by an airport is a function of airline operations, the response of airlines
to airport investment and pricing strategies and the ways in which they generate profits from air
service markets, these factors are crucial considerations in any air connectivity analysis. Scholars
and policy makers have suggested many different methods of measuring air connectivity (see
Airports Commission (2013a); Burghouwt and Redondi (2013) for an overview of different
metrics). These range from scrutinizing a collection of simple metrics, such as number of
available direct destinations, frequencies, seat capacity on particular routes or average levels of
delay, to more complex connectivity metrics which aim at capturing different dimensions of
connectivity in one index. Putting aside the pros and cons of these two approaches, what is
important for the purpose of this paper is that connectivity is not a one-dimensional but a
multidimensional concept. This implies that any change to how capacity is utilized needs to be
carefully considered through the prism of how it affects all dimensions of connectivity. For
example, allowing more air traffic movements (ATMs) at an airport, holding all other factors
equal, has two apparent impacts on air connectivity. On the one hand, the number of offered
seats and possibly destinations as well as frequencies will increase. On the other hand, more
traffic may increase airside and landside congestion, and in turn increase average delays and
adversely affect resilience of the airport. Furthermore, these delays are spread around an airport
network as delayed aircraft fly onwards creating a spill-over effect.

Air connectivity improvements need to be considered alongside all impacts of air

transport, particularly on local communities
Moreover, any policy change with impact on air connectivity should be considered alongside all
positive and negative impacts relating to air transport – on the travelers, the industry, local
communities, and the local and national economy. Providing stakeholders with information on
such impacts can help increase the level of trust between decision makers, the industry and the
local community. The experts noted that a collaborative approach among all stakeholders was
crucial to ensuring that those who are negatively impacted by any policy changes to improve air
connectivity (particularly in terms of increased noise and air pollution) are adequately
compensated. Such compensation considerations help ensure fairer outcomes and, in
consequence, reach consensus among the stakeholders. One of the challenges for government
relates to balancing the benefits experienced by a large section of the population, passengers and
businesses that support the economic benefits of air travel, against the costs incurred by a
relatively small section of the population, those that live near airports.

Capacity constraints can limit the development of air connectivity

At first glance, capacity constraints do not seem to be a global issue. At the beginning of 2017
only 178 airports globally will be Worldwide Slot Guidelines (WSG) Level 3 congested airports
in the summer season of 2018. Although capacity constraints pertain to only 1% of all
commercial airports in the world, it is not surprising that they bite at the most important airports
which provide their countries with the vast majority of the available long-haul destinations.
According to IATA’s WSG Database, 19 out of 31 world’s megacities are served by airports
where demand already exceeds the available capacity.

The IATA Worldwide Slot Guidelines document (WSG) provides the global air transport
community with a single set of standards for the management of airport slots. The document
is reviewed on a regular basis to keep up with industry and regulatory changes. The WSG
define three levels of airport congestion:
 Level 1: airports where the capacity of the airport infrastructure is generally adequate to
meet the demands of airport users at all times.
 Level 2: airports where there is potential for congestion during some periods of the day,
week, or season which can be resolved by schedule adjustments mutually agreed between the
airlines and facilitator. A facilitator is appointed to facilitate the planned operations of
airlines using or planning to use the airport.
 Level 3: airports where capacity providers have not developed sufficient infrastructure, or
where governments have imposed conditions that make it impossible to meet demand. A
coordinator is appointed to allocate slots to airlines and other aircraft operators using or
planning to use the airport as a means of managing the declared capacity.
What can be done to improve air connectivity outcomes?
There generally are three options to improve air connectivity at a congested airport site:

 Add physical capacity through building new infrastructure

The Roundtable participants agreed that in most cases airports become WSG Level 3 congested
airports due to the lack of effective long-term planning by the policy maker. As scarce capacity
makes it difficult for new entrants to enter an airport, capacity constraints create scarcity rents
which accrue along the value chain, including to airlines and airports. It is thus important that
governments engage in a consultative process of long-term aviation infrastructure planning to
bring relevant stakeholders - airports, airlines and local communities and businesses – on-board.
The experts agreed that it is important for the government to create a policy environment,
through appropriate regulation of airports as well as other policies, to foster the delivery of the
right kind of infrastructure at the right time.

 Increase throughput of existing capacity

The Roundtable participants noted that, while increasing throughput of the existing airport
capacity is desirable, there is an inherent trade-off between increasing throughput of an airport
and delay levels at that airport (and the resulting delays propagating through the system). Any
policy intervention to increase throughput at a congested airport, for example through more
efficient use of taxiing capacity and faster aircraft turnaround times, needs to be considered in
the context of rising delays.

 Manage within constraints of existing capacity

If increasing an airport’s physical capacity or its throughput is not an option, the experts
concluded that the option of last resort is to consider influencing connectivity outcomes through
capacity allocation. This can be done through slot allocation or through slot auctioning, as well
as other capacity

Defining and measuring airport capacity

The participants discussed a selection of approaches to define and measure airport capacity. For
example define capacity as the number of movements per hour as a function of operational and
environmental constraints. More recently academic research on airport operations tends to focus
on the relationship between flight schedules, airport capacity and how to mitigate delays propose
defining airport capacity as a function of airline and airport business models, airport
infrastructure, regulations, and capacity caps imposed by the government for environmental or
society-related reasons. ACI Europe position paper on airport capacity defines capacity “as the
practical maximum number of operations that a system can serve within a given period of time”
and as a combination of:
 Runway capacity
 Airport geometry
 Terminal capacity
  Apron/stand capacity
 Airspace capacity and
 Surface access capacity

These capacity drivers determine physical airport capacity. In the USA, the Future Airport
Capacity Task takes a long-term outlook for airport capacity of US airports. The third FACT
report, FACT 3, was released in January 2015 and uses modelling to determine which
airports will be capacity constrained in the future (FAA, 2015). The results are underpinned
by the Annual Service Volume (ASV) and National Airspace System (NAS)-wide modelling
tools. ASV calculates the yearly demand that results in a given level of average delay in
simulated operations. It considers multiple runway configurations at an airport, weighted by
the annual frequency of occurrence and utilizes an annual estimation of weather conditions
for each configuration in

What can be done to make more efficient use of existing airport capacity?
The Roundtable participants agreed on several best practices that can foster more efficient use of
existing airport capacity, hence improving welfare of the users of aviation. There was
widespread agreement that airports, airlines, air navigation service providers, and regulators
should pursue all possible technical innovations to improve utilization of available airport
capacity. Such tools, however, are very unlikely to deal with the full challenge of capacity
constraints at congested airports in the long term. The only credible solution to alleviating
capacity constraints is through long-term planning and investment in new infrastructure. At the
same time, technological improvements can reduce the need for policy restrictions constraining
capacity in order to reduce adverse impacts of aviation activity, predominantly in terms of noise
and air pollution. Such policy considerations could serve as an incentive for the industry to
further reduce aircraft noise. This section of the paper reviews the following tools that can be
used to make the use of airport capacity more efficient.
 Technological levers: o Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) o Co-ordinated Arrival
Departure Management (CADM) o Implementation of time-based separation (TBS),
rather than distance-based separation (DBS) o Better airside coordination through
simulation modelling.
 Policy levers: o Administrative and market-based capacity management of Eliminating
price discrimination against larger aircraft o Redistribution of traffic in multi-airport
systems As for using policy levers to allocation capacity, the experts agreed that
 governments should act cautiously and avoid intervening in airport capacity allocation
unless there are strong reasons for it. Relaxation of policy constraints on airport capacity
due to technological improvements the participants noted that some of the capacity
shortage is due to capacity restricting policies. Such policies include annual or daily
quotas on flights and are generally designed to alleviate some of the adverse impacts of
airports on local communities, particularly in terms of noise and air pollution. CO2
emissions are also an increasingly important consideration. As such, policy restrictions
on capacity serve an important purpose of mitigating adverse impacts of aviation. Thanks
to technological advancements, which enable production of quieter, more
environmentally friendly aircraft, there may be room for relaxing policy constraints on
airport capacity. Such an approach could serve as an incentive for the industry to further
reduce aircraft noise.

Technology to improve efficiency of airports

The Roundtable participants discussed different technological advancements that can help
increase the existing physical capacity of airports, including:
 Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM)
 Co-ordinated Arrival Departure Management (CADM)
 Implementation of time-based separation (TBS) rather than distance-based separation
(DBS)
 Better airside and landside coordination through simulation modelling

Collaborative Decision Making

(A-CDM) A-CDM6 is a tool which provides accurate and timely information on the pre-
departure sequence consisting of stand, push back, taxi, holding, queuing and take-off (Figure 3).
A-CDM uses a live ground radar feed of aircraft positions to give a pin sharp picture of airport
operations. This picture is distributed to all relevant parts of the airport: air traffic management,
ground handlers, gate operators and aircraft operators. Collaboration between these parties leads
to reduced congestion on the aprons and taxiways, better gate utilization, reduced fuel burn,
optimal use of ground handling resources and reduced waiting times for passengers. NATS state
that the A-CDM implementation at Heathrow has increased capacity by one aircraft movement
every two hours and A-CDM is fully implemented at 22 different airports across Europe.

Co-ordinated Arrival Departure Management (CADM)

Another tool to more efficiently manage arrivals at mixed mode runways is Co-ordinated Arrival
Departure Management (CADM). Air Traffic Control decides on the sequencing of aircraft
arriving at an airport based on safety and efficiency reasons. However, the spacing between
arrivals is not always optimal for smooth transitions between departures and arrivals. The
CADM system creates an appropriate, automatic tailoring of arrival gaps, taking into account the
departure traffic, i.e. queuing aircraft on the ground. This can improve throughput and reduce
delays. Simulation runs of two and a half hours at Frankfurt Airport by the German Aerospace
Centre (DLR) (Bohme et al., 2007) showed an average increase in departures per hour and
maximum overall throughput per hour when CADM was

Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Civil Aviation 

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the global aviation industry, but one
region which has been particularity hard hit is Latin America and the Caribbean. Historically, the
region’s air transport industry has been faced with a challenging operating environment,
characterized by high costs, taxes and fees, infrastructure limitations, regulatory constraints and
socio-economic uncertainties. COVID-19 worsened an already difficult operating environment.
Latin America and the Caribbean were the last to be hit by the coronavirus outbreak, and hence
will also be the last to come out of it. COVID-19 is a public health crisis and we fully understand
that governments need to first and foremost protect the health of their citizens. In North
America, we have been working closely with the Canadian and U.S. stakeholders to advocate for
the restart of international operations, lifting of mandatory quarantine measures and urging both
governments to grant financial relief measures to the industry. While the U.S. Government has
vastly supported its airlines during the crisis and there are still hopes for a second support
package, we continue to advocate the Canadian government to also aid the sector, including
financial support to airlines and averting the 30% increase published by Air Navigation Service
Provider NAVCANADA, commencing in FY22, that will further burden airlines in the recovery.
The longer aviation in the region remains grounded, the more precarious the situation of our
industry will become. With many governments extending border closures, we are facing a reality
that sees airlines being grounded for seven or even more months. IATA will continue to push for
financial support, advocate for the implementation of ICAO’s CART Takeoff Guidance and call
for a systematic approach to COVID-19 testing which will provide an effective way to give
governments the confidence to re-open borders without quarantine. We need to find a way to co-
exist with the virus and it will be crucial to build consensus among the industry, governments
and the traveling public that aviation is safe and that airlines will play a key role in the economic
recovery from COVID-19 by reconnecting the Americas to the rest of the world. While I have
been sharing almost daily updates with you regarding IATA’s COVID-19 related operational
activities and government policies in the Americas, we felt that at this point of the pandemic, we
would also like to continue our “regular” newsletter and update you on our strategic, longer term
activities, both COVID and non-COVID related. Therefore, please find IATA’s most recent key
initiatives across the
Americas below. Lastly, I would like to share the appointment of Ben Barrocas as IATA’s
Country Manager for the United States, based in the Regional Office in Miami who reports to
me and will work closely with our government affairs team based in Washington D.C. Please
feel free to pass on Ben’s contact details to your teams for any support your airline might need
operating to/from the U.S. Please count on our continued support and never hesitate to reach out
to me directly for any additional actions or ideas you might have.
While the COVID-19 pandemic is first and foremost a health crisis, it has also led to major
economic problems. Since the beginning of the outbreak, the civil aviation industry has been
among the most severely hit sectors globally. Although the media has extensively covered the
issue, the future remains unclear. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) actively
monitor the economic impact on the industry and regularly publishes reports and forecasts. The
most recent ICAO report identifies two potential scenarios:
The V-Shaped scenario follows the normal shape of recession where a brief period of contraction
is followed by a quick and smooth recovery. This is the most optimistic scenario,  indicated with
an orange triangle . This would mean reduced numbers of seats offered by airlines (from 38% to
55%), reduced numbers of passengers (861 to 1 292 million), and a potential loss of gross
operating revenues for airlines (approximately USD 151 to 228 billion).
The U-Shaped scenario indicates prolonged contraction and slow recovery with a possibility of
no return to a solid trend of growth. This is the most pessimistic scenario,  indicated with a red
triangle. This would mean even more reduced numbers of seats offered by airlines (from 48% to
71%), reduced numbers of passengers (1 108 to 1 524 million), and a higher potential loss of
gross operating revenues for airlines (approximately USD 194 to 269 billion).
We do not know what will happen yet – however, this will depend on the duration and
magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence in air
travel, and several economic conditions.
Photo: Global level analysis provided by ICAO
COVID-19 and Connectivity in Civil Aviation
Decreased confidence in flying after COVID-19 means the civil aviation industry will need to
establish renewed customer support. Travel will need to take place with social distancing rules
and airlines will need to maintain a higher level of cleanliness. While the industry will struggle,
there is hope. Connectivity has the potential to play a central role in the rise of a new civil
aviation industry post-COVID-19.

Connectivity and Health

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and passengers will demand new
measures to ensure health and safety during all stages of air travel. This will be guaranteed at
several levels, from pre-boarding checks, such as systematic temperature inspections using IoT
devices, to IoT bracelets that detect vital signs, as well as being able to access digital health
certificates on our phones. Some of these are already being implemented. For example, AI firms
have deployed fever detection systems in Beijing to fight the outbreak.
Smart boarding is another connected solution. Passengers aboard the plane after they have been
notified on their phone when their seats are boarding. Delta Air Lines, EasyJet and Gatwick
Airport are already implementing similar measure to reduce queues and boarding times where
crowds tend to gather.
Connected devices will also become important inside planes and cabin IoT data will likely be
used to promote passenger wellness. For example, Airbus is willing to introduce lavatory queue
information that could be presented to passengers over the on-board IFE system, allowing them
to better time their visits to optimize social distancing on board. Panasonic Avionics is also
considering implementing sensors on board to inform the crew about passenger activity.

Data Privacy
Before the pandemic, connected airports and planes would have faced skepticism over the risks
of providing health information and advice to passengers. However, in the post-pandemic world,
such an approach might be attractive for passengers and comforting for governments.
In the UK for example, the government recently introduced a 14-day quarantine obligation for
those arriving in the country. The implementation of connected devices could prevent the
quarantine obligation falling on all travelers, allowing those who are in perfect health to move
about more freely. Introducing more connectivity solutions into the aviation industry may allow
the sector to survive and support the economy as the world and business opens up, while
remaining safe.
Although data will be valuable to the aviation industry, data privacy is still and will be a
sensitive topic. It is therefore important to closely monitor new developments so as to ensure
compliance and avoid expensive fines.

Inflight Experience
Along with ensuring a safe and healthy experience, the aviation industry will have to stimulate
demand and create new incentives for travelers. One way of doing so is enhancing the inflight
experience. As we become ever more accustomed to being connected (through streaming, surfing
the web, and working, studying and shopping online), connectivity providers, airlines and
airports can leverage this trend to integrate more connectivity into their services. This will make
travel more attractive, and in turn, boost the civil aviation industry. Connectivity providers are
advised to monitor the rise of the online aviation industry as they begin to play an even more
important role in the connectivity value chain.
Operational Efficiency
Connected aircraft will create a new and personalized experience for passengers and play a
central role in boosting customer confidence. Additionally, connectivity provides opportunities
for improving airlines’ additional revenues and operational efficiency. This will benefit
customers, as well as suppliers, airlines, telecommunication providers, and the entire value chain.
Additional revenue may come from personalized retail and advertisements, as well as new
services enabled by IoT. Airlines can also improve their operational efficiency through
predictive maintenance, more efficient on-board services, and creating new apps to support
further smart airline goals. With predictive maintenance for example, IoT devices can inform the
crew when something is broken in the cabin or is likely to break soon, such as a seat or toilet.
This allows maintenance staff to be more efficient with their time and resources. IoT can also
help minimize waste and make cabin services more efficient. Tools can help control temperature
around individual seats, cabin humidity and smells can be minimized, and the needs of
passengers can be anticipated better.
Airports Council International (ACI) World has published its sixth assessment analyzing the
economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, its effects on the global airport business, and the path
to recovery. A year ago, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the
COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Since then, daily life across the globe has changed. Air
transport has remained one of the hardest-hit global industries since the very beginning of the
crisis. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a full-scale global transportation crisis.
It became quickly evident that it would evolve in a crisis like no others bringing the industry into
survival mode, impaired by the loss of traffic and revenues.
It is clear that the impact of this crisis reaches way beyond aviation. Since the COVID-19
outbreak started, more than 2.7 million people have died worldwide due this virus. Researchers
have recently estimated that the world has lost 20.5 million years of life because of premature
COVID-19 deaths, and this number will just continue to increase.
Along with the human tragedy, the crisis has also resulted in dramatic damage to the global
economy, trade, and mobility. Practically all aspects of economic and social activity were, and
are still, disrupted.
The health, safety and wellbeing of passengers and staff is the aviation industry’s number one
priority. Airports have introduced many new health and biosafety measures to help ensure the
health and safety of passengers, and that airport customer experience reflects their changing
expectations and addresses their concerns.
Airports and airlines are united in the call for governments to partner with the industry to prepare
to restart global connectivity when the epidemiological situation allows, and the unprecedented
global vaccination effort offers a beacon of hope that a return to normality is a possibility in the
near future. Since the first vaccine dose was administered in late 2020, more than 450 million
doses have been administered across more than 130 countries. The possibility that summer
vacations abroad may happen this year is more likely than ever. Many industry surveys have
shown that “vacation deprivation” combined with an upsurge in confidence in air travel provided
by vaccination and safety measures should result in the number of people traveling outside of
their countries will start this spring and significantly increase by mid-year.
One of the keys to supporting a sustained recovery will be the establishment of an interoperable
health data trust framework to facilitate safe border reopening and cross-border travel. As such,
ACI is supportive of any system which will allow testing and vaccination data to be shared
consistently, effectively and in a way that protects the personal data of those that use it.
Despite positive signs and prospects for recovery, COVID-19 remains an existential crisis for
airports, airlines and their commercial partners. In this context, the current document seeks to
highlight some key figures in terms of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on airport traffic
and revenues and pathways to recovery.

1. COVID-19 crisis had an unprecedented impact on airport traffic

Last year marked the end of a decade of consistent growth in global passenger traffic. The ongoing
COVID-19 pandemic brought airports around the world to a virtual halt in the second quarter of
2020, resulting in airport traffic —and revenue —losses across all regions. While many countries
have since then started to gradually reopen many parts of their economy, many states were
confronted with subsequent waves of infections and several jurisdictions opted for the re-imposition
of partial lockdowns.
Countries like France, Poland, Canada, India, and Chile had to increase or re-instate partial
lockdowns in an effort to control the spread of a second, third or even fourth wave of infection. Even
though most countries have moved away from all-encompassing lockdowns and are now trying to
limit the infections with targeted and less disruptive restrictions, most jurisdictions have retained
either partially or totally restrictive regulations pertaining to international travel including self-
quarantine on arrival.
In this context, ACI World has produced the latest estimates regarding impact on passenger traffic.
Looking back at 2020
 The impact of the COVID-19 crisis removed more than 1 billion passengers for the
whole year 2020 compared to the projected baseline (pre-COVID-19 forecast for 2020),
representing a decline of 64.6% of global passenger traffic (see Table 1). Compared to
2019 level, the decline is recorded at 63.3%.
 Europe and the Middle East were the two most impacted regions with similar declines
of 5% compared to the projected baseline.
 After being hit first, Asia-Pacific embarked on recovery earlier and faster than other
regions—mostly driven by China’s sizable domestic market— and closed the year 2020
with a decline of 61.3% compared to the projected baseline (59.8% decline compared to
2019 level). Asia-Pacific, however, recorded the highest traffic loss of all regions with a
loss of 2.15 billion passengers in 2020 compared to the projected baseline.
 Latin America-Caribbean was the least impacted of all regions posting a decline of
61.1% compared to the projected baseline (-59.8% compared to 2019 level).
 Following the “Great Lockdown” of April 2020, international passenger traffic was
virtually non-existent in the second half of 2020. International passenger volume ended
the year below 1 billion passengers, a decrease of more than 75% compared to 2019
volume. (See Chart 2).
 Domestic passenger traffic volume was helped by the early recovery of major domestic
markets like China, Russia and the US. Globally, domestic traffic volume for 2020 was
recorded slightly above 2.4 billion passengers, a decline of 54.7% compared to 2019
volume (see Chart 2).

Projections for 2021

 The impact of the COVID-19 crisis is forecasted to remove additional 4.7 billion
passengers by year end 2021 compared to the projected baseline (pre-COVID-19 forecast
for 2021), representing a decline of 47.5% of global passenger traffic (see Table 1).
Compared to 2019 level, the decline is forecasted to be -43.6% by year end. The first
quarter of 2021 is expected to show little signs of improvement compared to Q4 2020. As
the vaccination rollout and vaccine uptake increases, more passengers are expected to
return to travel with the biggest surge in Q3 and Q4 of 2021.
 Similar to 2020, Europe and the Middle East are forecasted to remain the two most
impacted regions with declines of 1% and 58.9%, respectively, compared to the projected
baseline due to their high dependence on international travel and connectivity which are
recovering at a slower pace than domestic travel.
 Following its early start to recovery, Asia-Pacific will outperform all other regions in
each quarter of 2021 and is forecasted to end the year 2021 with an estimated traffic loss
of 40.3% compared to the projected baseline (a decline of 35.1% compared to 2019
level). Driven by the combination of a fast-recovering US domestic market and strong
vaccination rate, North America forecast for 2021 will significantly improve and the
 region is expected to end the year 2021 at -43.5% compared to the projected baseline (or
-39.9% compared to 2019 level).
 International passenger traffic  is expected to remain weak in the first half of 2021, but
early signs are pointing to a significant surge in air travel demand for the second half of
2021 as an increasing number of people get vaccinated and international travel
restrictions are gradually eased. While international passenger traffic volume will still lag
behind domestic traffic in 2021, it is forecasted to end the year above 1.6 billion
passenger or 4% of 2019 level (see Chart 2).
 Domestic passenger traffic started its path to recovery faster than international traffic.
Globally, domestic traffic will continue to increase in 2021 to reach close to 5 billion
passengers by the end of 2021 corresponding to 65.6% of the 2019 level (see Chart 2).
 Find more details as well as regional breakdowns in Table 1, Table 2 and Chart 1, Chart
2
COVID-19 outbreak catastrophic impact on airport revenues
Air traffic is the very lifeblood of the airport business. Airports generate more than 95% of all
revenue from two operating sources: aeronautical and non-aeronautical services. Practically all
aeronautical revenues are a direct function of traffic and include passenger-related charges from
passengers and aircraft-related charges from aircraft operators.
As traffic declines, airports’ ability to collect those charges decreases proportionally. With little
flexibility in operating expenditures coupled with capital costs that are largely fixed, the current
crisis represents an unprecedented challenge for the airport industry’s financial viability.
In September 2020, the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), a global association that represents all
sectors of the air transport industry, estimated that the COVID-19 crisis will result in the loss of 46
million aviation-supported jobs (-52.5%) as well as a reduction of $1.8 trillion USD in economic
activity supported by aviation (-51.5%) (Aviation: Benefits beyond Borders, ATAG 2020).
The current assessment assumes constant airport revenues on a per-passenger basis, even though
preliminary evidence suggests that unit revenues may both increase or decrease depending on a
combination of airport-specific factors.
Every airport has a unique portfolio of non-aeronautical activities, but as a rule of thumb, a higher
proportion of passenger-related activities, such as retail or food and beverage concessions, lead to a
steeper reduction in commercial revenues, while higher reliance on real estate income and rents acts
as a cushion in times of crisis. In this context, ACI World forecasts the following related to airport
revenues:

Looking back at 2020

 The airport industry was expected to generate about $188 billion in 2020 prior to the
COVID-19 outbreak. The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on airport revenues was
unprecedented, reducing close to 125 billion USD from airport revenues in 2020
compared to the projected baseline (pre-COVID-19 revenue forecast), a reduction of
66.3%. See Table 3.
 The second quarter of 2020 alone contributed to a reduction of close to $43.5 billion in
revenues compared to the projected baseline, a decrease of more than 1%.
 Similar to passenger traffic, Europe and the Middle East were the most affected regions.
In absolute terms, Europe recorded an estimated revenue shortfall of 4 billion for 2020.
In relative terms, Europe and the Middle East recorded a reduction of 70.5% of their
revenues for 2020 compared to the projected baseline.

Projections for 2021

 The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on airport revenues will still be deeply felt in 2021. It
is estimated that globally, airports will suffer the loss of more than 94 billion USD of
revenues by year end of 2021 cutting in half airport revenue expectations (-50.0%)
compared to the projected baseline (-48.1% compared to 2019 level). See Table 3.
  It is expected that each quarter of 2021 will show improvements compared to the
previous one, moving from a decline of 7% in the first quarter  of 2021 to a decline
of 35.2% in the fourth quarter compared to the projected baseline.
 Europe will remain the most affected region in absolute terms, with an estimated loss of
revenues of more than 4 billion USD by year end 2021. In relative terms, the Middle
East and Europe will suffer the biggest hit with decrease
of 58.9% and 58.1% respectively. Asia-Pacific will record the strongest recovery,
reaching 59.7% of the projected baseline.

3. Path to Recovery
With the biggest vaccination campaign in history underway, we were seeing some positive signs
and prospects for recovery. Both travelers and industry stakeholders are eager to resume
traveling. Many industry experts forecast a surge in travel for the second half of 2021. Some are
even referring to this potential increase as a “post-war like surge” in travel.
Much uncertainty still surrounds the recovery of the aviation industry, however, and projecting
the path to recovery at this point is an exercise requiring prudence. Three scenarios are used to
look at the potential recovery trajectory using the following assumptions.
The three scenarios use the following assumptions.
WATF 2020–2040: Developed in December 2020 and published in January of 2021, the WATF
2020–2040 was based on the assumptions of effective vaccines largely distributed in the second
half of 2021 in addition to an enthusiasm from passengers to start flying again and a reasonable
airlines fleet recovery. This scenario remains achievable but contingent to the ability of
governments to contain the spread of new variants of the virus.
Revised Projection (Baseline): Effective vaccines largely distributed in the second half of 2021
in addition to an enthusiasm from passengers to start flying again in the second half of 2021 and
a reasonable airlines fleet recovery. Third and fourth waves of infections are possible but rapidly
contained and limited to specific regions.
Pessimistic: Effective vaccines in 2021 but complex distribution in many emerging and
developing countries and/or limited vaccine supply. Fear of traveling still present amongst
passengers, coupled with prolonged economic downturn and slow airline fleet recovery. Third
and fourth waves of infections are likely and could spread to multiple regions.
Under those assumptions, ACI World forecast the following related to the recovery of airport
passenger traffic:
 Under the baseline scenario, global passenger traffic is now expected to recover to 2019
levels in 2024 mainly driven by the recovery of domestic passenger traffic but now
slightly dampened by a slower recovery of international travel (globally, domestic traffic
accounts for 58% of total passenger traffic as of 2019).
  If new variants of the virus are effectively contained, the WATF 2020–2040 is still the
most likely scenario, resulting in a recovery to 2019 level by the end of 2023.
 Domestic passenger traffic is expected to reach 2019 levels in the second half of 2023.
The recovery of international passenger traffic will require one more year, thus getting
back to 2019 levels only in 2024.
 At the country-market level, markets having significant domestic traffic are expected
however to recover in 2023 to pre-COVID-19 levels while markets with a significant
share of international traffic are unlikely to return to 2019 levels until 2024 or even 2025
in some cases.
 The pessimistic scenario calls for a delayed recovery with the appearance of new variants
of the virus resulting in governments introducing more restrictive measures, creating new
lockdowns and travel restrictions, severely hampering efforts to safely restart. Under this
scenario, 2021 passenger volume will remain weak, ending the year at only 46.5% of
2019 level.
 In the long run, it is predicted that the global traffic may take up to two decades to
return to previously projected levels (pre-COVID-19 forecast). A structural change
(traffic will never return to pre-COVID-19 forecasted level) is still a possibility

Technology to improve efficiency of airports

1. The Roundtable participants discussed different technological advancements that can
help increase
2. The existing physical capacity of airports, including:
3. Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM)
4. Co-ordinated Arrival Departure Management (CADM)
5. Implementation of time-based separation (TBS) rather than distance-based separation
(DBS)
6. Better airside and landside coordination through simulation modelling
7. [9:10 PM, 12/3/2021] Ahmad Hashmi: Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM)
8. A-CDM6
9. Is a tool which provides accurate and timely information on the pre-departure sequence
10. Consisting of stand, push back, taxi, holding, queuing and take-off. A-CDM uses a live
ground
11. Radar feed of aircraft positions to give a pin sharp picture of airport operations. This
picture is distributed
12. To all relevant parts of the airport: air traffic management, ground handlers, gate
operators and aircraft
13. Operators. Collaboration between these parties leads to reduced congestion on the aprons
and taxiways,
14. Better gate utilization, reduced fuel burn, optimal use of ground handling resources and
reduced waiting
15. Times for passengers. NATS state that the A-CDM implementation at Heathrow has
increased capacity
16. By one aircraft movement every two hours and A-CDM is fully implemented at 22
different airports
17. Across Europe.7
18. 18.
19. Co-ordinated Arrival Departure Management (CADM)
20. Another tool to more efficiently manage arrivals at mixed mode runways is Co-ordinated
Arrival
21. Departure Management (CADM). Air Traffic Control decides on the sequencing of
aircraft arriving at an
22. Airport based on safety and efficiency reasons. However, the spacing between arrivals is
not always
23. Optimal for smooth transitions between departures and arrivals. The CADM system
creates an
24. Appropriate, automatic tailoring of arrival gaps, taking into account the departure traffic,
i.e. queuing
25. Aircraft on the ground. This can improve throughput and reduce delays. Simulation runs
of two and a half
26. Hours at Frankfurt Airport by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) (Bohme et al., 2007)
showed an
27. Average increase in departures per hour and maximum overall throughput per hour when
CADM was
28. Used
29. [9:11 PM, 12/3/2021] Ahmad Hashmi: Time based separation
30. Traditionally aircraft arrivals had been separated by distance required between aircraft.
Time Based
31. Separation (TBS), however, enables separation of aircraft by time instead. This is
particularly effective at
32. Mitigating the negative effects on the landing rate of headwinds at an airport. Headwinds
can cause
33. Delays when runways are operating at full, or close to full utilization. This is because,
compared to
34. Operations in still conditions, the groundspeed of the aircraft is reduced by the headwind.
Since in a DBS
35. The distance between aircraft needs to remain fixed, the time between aircraft landing on
a runway
36. Becomes longer, reducing throughput and causing delays at peak times. Time Based
Separation allows
37. The distance between aircraft to be adjusted for the headwinds so that the aircraft landing
rate is not
38. Reduced.
39. Air traffic management is an area where much progress has been made in the past and the
experts
40. Agreed that it could still provide efficiency gains in the future. Increasing efficiency of
air traffic
41. Management is at the heart of SESAR8
42. - The European body to define, develop and deploy what is needed
43. To increase ATM performance – or its US equivalent, NextGen9
44. .
45. As part of the Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) project to improve Air
Traffic
46. Management, NATS have been operating Time Based Separation (TBS) since March
2015 at Heathrow,
47. Where in 2014, wind was accountable for 44% of all delays. The implementation of TBS
led to an
48. Average 62% reduction in wind-related Air Traffic Flow Management delays and
allowed for 2.6
49. Additional ATMs per hour to be operated in strong winds (NATS, 2015).
50. TBS is mandated to be in operation at Europe's busiest airports by 2024. A key feature of
TBS is
51. That it uses downlinked real time live wind data from the aircraft to dynamically
calculate the headwind
52. Effect on final approach and determine the optimal safe wake vortex spacing between
aircraft. Separation
53. Indicators are provided to controllers to assist with managing final approach separations.
Before
54. Implementing TBS at Heathrow, NATS and EUROCONTROL conducted real time
simulations to
55. Develop algorithms, assess controller workload and validate benefits. They also studied
the arrival paths
56. Of over 150 000 aircraft at London Heathrow, using state of the art equipment to
accurately measure the
57. Behavior of aircraft wake vortices. This helped to inform the safety case for the
introduction of TBS.
58. Aircraft are separated by distance when coming in to land to ensure they do not suffer
turbulent
59. Effects caused by wake vortices from the aircraft in front. Wake vortices are turbulence
that forms behind
60. An aircraft when it passes through the air, particularly at the wing tips which make up
most of the effect.
61. The distance between two aircraft is normally determined by their respective sizes and
weight. Size and
62. Weight determine into which one of six main wake vortex categories an aircraft belongs.
The required
63. Distance between aircraft at landing is then determined through that classification.
Separating aircraft by
64. Time instead of distance offers the potential to reduce these separations and therefore
increase the number
65. Of aircraft able to land on a runway.
66. In the European Union, the European Wake Vortex Re-categorization (RECAT-EU) will
soon
67. Replace the six categories mentioned above with a new, more optimized categorization to
more accurately
68. Reflect the size of the vortex created and effect it causes. This re-categorization will
enable the separation
69. Distance between aircraft to be reduced and thus improve the landing rate.
70. In the years to come, ‘pairwise separation’ will replace the categorization of aircraft in
RECAT- EU
71. And create specific categories for over 96 aircraft types, refining further separation
distances. ‘Optimized
72. Runway Delivery’ technology will also be adopted to enable traffic controllers to achieve
more efficient
73. Separation between aircraft.
74. [9:12 PM, 12/3/2021] Ahmad Hashmi: Better airside coordination through application of
simulation modelling
75. Simulation models11 are tools used by transport infrastructure operators and in other
fields to
76. Analyses how efficiently people and vehicles flow through a certain space. They use a
detailed set of
77. Inputs to explain how the existing infrastructure is set up, and a detailed set of
assumptions about how
78. Actors in that system behave. By changing the airport layout and other variables, it is
possible to explore
79. How existing infrastructure can be more effectively utilized. Simulation models can be
used to simulate
80. How passengers move through terminals, how aircraft move through taxiways and how
take offs and
81. Landings are sequenced at single and multi-runway airports. Optimization methods have
also the potential
82. To improve allocation of slots through providing decision makers with information on
trade-offs between
83. Increasing capacity and slot allocation efficiency (Zografos et al., 2017). As models are
becoming more
84. Detailed and accurate, they are becoming more useful. The experts agreed that airports
should continue to use the latest modelling tools to ensure airport infrastructure usage
was optimized