SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE AND HUMANITIES

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

RESEARCH PROPOSAL
ON

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON FOOD SECURITY and adaptation

strategies: THE CASE OF ARSI ROBE WOREDA OROMIA REEGIONAL STATE

BY

MELESE GETACHEW

Advisor

YIMER MOHAMMED (PhD)

JANUARY, 2022

DILLA, ETHIOPIA

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 Acronyms

CCI Complementary community based Infrastructure program

CSA Central Statistical Agency

CRGE Climate Resilient Green Economy

DA Development Agent

EPACC Ethiopian Program of Adaptation to climate Change

FAD Food Available Decline

FAO Food and Agricultural organization

FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

FGDO Focus Group Discussion

GDP Gorse Domestic Product

GHG Green House Gas

HABP Household Asset Building Program

HFIAS Household Food Insecurity Access Scale

HHS Household Dietary score

IPCC Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change

KII Key Informant Interview

NAPA National Adaptation program for action.

NMSA National Meteorological Service Agency

PSNP Productive Safety Net Program

USAID United State Agency for International Development

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Chang

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 Table of Contents

Contents Page
1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background........................................................................................................................................1
1.2. Statement.........................................................................................................................................4
1.3. Objective of the study......................................................................................................................5
1.3.1 General objective........................................................................................................................5
1.3.2. Specific objectives of the study..................................................................................................5
1.4. The Research Questions...................................................................................................................5
1.5. Significant of the Study.....................................................................................................................6
1.6. Scope of the study............................................................................................................................6
1.7. Limitation..........................................................................................................................................6
2. Literature Review....................................................................................................................................7
2.1. Concept and definition.....................................................................................................................7
2.2. Theoretical part................................................................................................................................8
2.2.1 Climate Variability.......................................................................................................................8
2.2.2. Cause of climate Variability.......................................................................................................8
2.2.3. Impact of climate Variability on Global scale.............................................................................9
2.2.4. Impact of climate variability in Africa........................................................................................9
2.2.5. Impact of Climate Change in Ethiopia......................................................................................10
2.2.6. Ethiopia: Climate change and food insecurity..........................................................................11
2.2.7. Poverty, vulnerability and food Insecurity in Ethiopia.............................................................11
2.2.8. Implication of climate change in Food security........................................................................13
2.2.9. The food security program of Ethiopia....................................................................................14
2.2.10. Measuring Food Security.......................................................................................................14
2.2.11. Ethiopia’s program of Adaptation to climate change (EPACC)...............................................15
2.3. Empirical Study...............................................................................................................................16
3. Research Design and methodology.......................................................................................................19
3.1 Description of the study Area..........................................................................................................19
3.1.1 Location and size......................................................................................................................19
 3.1.2 Topography and soil.................................................................................................................21
3.1.3 Climate......................................................................................................................................21
3.1.4 Demography.............................................................................................................................21
3.1.5 socio- economic character of the study area............................................................................21
3.2 Research methodology....................................................................................................................22
3.2.1 Research Design........................................................................................................................22
3.2.2 Sampling Techniques and Sample Size.....................................................................................22
3. 2.3 Source of Data.........................................................................................................................24
3.2.4 Primary data.............................................................................................................................24
3.2.6. Secondary Data........................................................................................................................25
3.3. Procedure of Data Collection..........................................................................................................26
3.4. Method of Data Analysis.................................................................................................................26
4. Work Plan..............................................................................................................................................27
5. Budget Breakdown................................................................................................................................27
Reference..................................................................................................................................................30
APPENDIX..................................................................................................................................................44
 List of table

Table 1.work plan…...................................................................................................................................36

Table 2. Time Schedule…..........................................................................................................................35

Table 3.Cost of Stationery…......................................................................................................................36

Table 4.Perdiam cost in Birr......................................................................................................................36

Table 5 Budget Summery….......................................................................................................................37

List of figure

Figure 1.Map of the study area…..............................................................................................................25

 1. Introduction
1.1. Background of The study
Climate variability and change is the most complex and challenging phenomenon affecting the global
community. In coming decades the global climate variability may have an adverse overall effect on
agriculture production and thus bringing several regions of the world on the dangerous thresholds in many
regions. Scientific evidences indicated that global climate change is attributable to natural and
anthropogenic factors (Mbow et al., 2019; IPCC, 2014; Hegerl et al., 2007).

The world’s climate has already changed and will continue to change dramatically and the changes
manifested in the recurrent drought, floods, and famine that have threatened millions of people and
livestock in recent decade. Climate variability affect with increased average annual temperatures, reduced
and increased variability in rainfall reduced crop yield and threatens food security in low income and
agricultural based economy (FOA, 2009).Climate has many obvious implication on landforms and morph
dynamic evolution of natural landscapes as much as on the living condition of local people, in the country
whose economy is heavily dependent on rain- fed agriculture(Gebre et al,2013).Rainfall and temperature
are the most critical variables to agriculture and owned the highest attention global scale.

The macroeconomic costs of the impacts of climate change are highly uncertain, but very likely
have the potential to threaten development in many countries (Christopher et al., 2008). According to
Negatu (year?? ) in developed and developing countries all over the world, farmers and indigenous and
local communities have traditional knowledge, expertise, skills, and practices related to food security,
agricultural production, diversity and adaptation. Food security is a global challenge closely linked to
poverty. The global lobby for Global Development has indicated food security is Goal number
one. There has been progress in reducing global hunger (protein-energy malnutrition) from about 1
billion people in 1990-1992 to about 870million in 2010-2012 (Negatu, 2016).

Climate change is one of the most challenging and complex problem confronting in the agricultural
development worldwide (Tesfahunegn et al, 2017).The impact and vulnerability of climate variability is
more visible in developing countries due to over depend on climate sensitive sector and low adaptive
sector and low adaptive capacity (Ayelew et al, 2021).

AS IPCC (2014) highlighted manifestations of climate change include increment of temperature,

description of precipitation pattern and increment of extreme weather events like droughts. The impact

1
and vulnerability to climate variability and change is more profound in developing countries particularly
in sub- Sahara Africa (World Bank, 2010).

Areas suffering from food insecurity are expected to experienced is proportionately negative effects.
Africa is one of the seriously affected continents by climate change in the world (IPCC, 2018).In Africa
agricultural production will be decreased by 8% to22% by 2050 (Schlenkerrand and Lobell 2010).This
problem is more they lack adaptive capacity. On the other hand meeting and dual challenge of achieving
food security and other developmental benefits on the one hand and mitigating and adaptation to climate
change on the other hand requires political commitment at the highest level (Bedding Ton et al., 2011).,
and environmental problems.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, climate variability and change such as drought are responsible for substantial
economic social and environmental problems. Managing the risk posed by climate change and extreme
events through implementing effective technological, institutional, and policy options are
crucial(Shiferaw et al.,2014).This has a major indication for the agricultural sector. It will be critical for
developing adaptive strategies to overcome the problem.

All climates related disturbance would not only have drastic impacts on food distribution patterns but also
on its quality and access. Not only this, it will also raise humanitarian concerns as food security is deeply
entwined with public health and will create various cycle of hunger(FAO,2014).FAO reports that rise in
the world hunger level is constantly increasing since 2014 and an increments in number of
undernourished people have been observedfrom804 million in 2016 to 824 million in 2017.

Food insecurity will continue to be a serious issue in coming decades, despite significantly projected
hunger by the end of the century from the current 850 million to about 200-300 million, where many
developing countries will experience serious poverty on food insecurity. Food security highly sensitive to
climate variability in Ethiopia (Ababa,2007).

Ethiopia’s is vulnerability to climate change system because of geographic location, socioeconomic

realities, dependency on mono and climate sensitive sector, high population pressure, widespread
environmental degradation, fragile ecosystems, limited national scientific evidences, weak technological,
financial and institutional capacity, and poor infrastructure (USAID,2019). Under this scenario, it is a
foregone conclusion that recurrent drought, erratic rainfall pattern, and rise of temperature pose clear and
present danger to the Ethiopian agriculture and food security.

The study also depicts that, means of adaptation and coping mechanism of the local people vary and
millions of Ethiopians often face harsh food security (MCkeej, 2008).particularly the eastern and northern
parts of the country are the most vulnerable and have the highest food insecurity. Two factors critical to
assuring food security, at the local as well as global level, is increasing crop productivity with
available water resource and increasing access to sustainable water supplies. Also broad area of
Ethiopian history is interrupted and affected by drought and famine, covering country hundreds of
thousands of square kilometers, and millions of household(Kaure,2013).The degree of climate change
effect varies from region to region with the ability of different societal and environmental system to adapt
changes and sharing idea, about climate variability needs flexibility in resource use (grasping opportunity
and coping with shortage also high degree of adaptability to repeatedly change situation (yohannes,2010).

Ethiopia is highly affected by climate change due to three main reasons; i.e. about 80 % of the population
is largely depend on rain fed agriculture ii, low income country iii, varied geographical locations with
different magnitude of climate impacts. Climate variability is not a recent situation to Ethiopia because of
the numerous and frequently droughts occurrences over the years: 1889-1892, 1972-1974, 1984-1985,
2002-2003 and2015-16, which is due to the climate variability. Climate variability increases the risks of
hunger in the region as it affects all four components of food security: Food availability, food
accessibility, food utilization and food stability.

Rainfall shortage or excess hampers food production, causing food insecurity and escalation of famine in
the region. Bad weather also affects people indirectly through the sequential rather than direct depletion
of their assets. When drought occurs, the people cannot produce enough food to meet their needs, whereas
livestock suffer from the shortage of pasture.

Basically, there are two factors that directly or indirectly influence climate change in Ethiopia: natural and
anthropogenic factors. For that reason, Ethiopia’s climate is highly influenced by the general atmospheric
and oceanic factor that affects the weather system and the time of beginning and strength of rain (Bekele,
1997).Climate change causes major challenges to Ethiopia’s government and also its people. It has faced
with increasingly erratic rains, and sometimes the complete failure of seasonal rains a problem linked to
climate change. Accordingly, millions of Ethiopians often face harsh food scarcity (Kaur, 2013).

The potential impacts of climate change in Ethiopia are super imposed on stressors such as population
pressure, poverty and land degradation (Abebe T, 2007).The frequency of climate related shocks and
stresses have been increased from time to time. The increase in frequency of extreme weather events
compounded by the difficulty in predicting growing conditions becomes a significant threat for the
attainment of food security.
Understanding the variability is a key characteristic of the rainy season are crucial for Ethiopia
agricultural planning in general and especially for mitigating the adverse effects of recurring drought and
capitalizing fully when more abundant rains occur. Because of the complex topography and large spatial
rainfall variability a single kiremet on set criterion could not be establish for all of Ethiopia (Negra, 2013).

1.2. Statement of the study

As indicate by IPCC (2007) climate variability and change are among the utmost development
challenges of the 21st century. Like rural Ethiopia, Arsi Robe woreda is exceedingly affected by
climate variability impacts. The productivity of land and livestock deceasing and as a result food
security becomes great problem.

In Ethiopia climate variability is already taking place now, thus past and present change help to
indicate possible future change. Over the last decades, the temperature in Ethiopia increased at
about 0.20c-0.370c per decade (Kasahun 2008). The rise in temperature and fluctuations in
rainfall create many problem related to food security. In the central part of the country more rain
will mean further erosion of the soil and lower crop yield for smaller holder farmers and lead to
flooding (IPPC, 2014).

Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change and variability in Africa and
frequently confronted with climate related hazards that affect the lives and livelihood of the
people(Wworld Bbank ,2010).Climate related shocks and stresses with drought and flood being
the major one has affected agriculture sector in Ethiopia( Deresse et al 2011).Although
agriculture is contributing it to Ethiopia about 45%of GDP,60%of foreign exchange earnings and
85% of total employment, it is one of the most vulnerable sectors to current and projected
climate change/variability potentially exposing millions of people to recurrent food
shortage(FAO,2007).

In Arsi Robe woreda, where more than 95% of population is engaging in rain fed subsistence
agriculture, climate variability puts more pressure on food security in woreda . The people have
been highly exposed for to food insecurity, water shortage, and low productivity.

The impact is more serious on the agricultural sector which is prominently subsistence and rain
fed in character. Additionally insignificant variation in the duration and amount of rainfall and
temperature can cause severe crop failure and loss of production. So, it is crucial to understand
the nature of climate variability and associated impacts and the coping strategies of societies to
minimizing the adverse impacts.

Most studies on impact of climate change/variability on food security and their climate
adaptation strategies are conducted in highland areas of Ethiopia where there is a relatively
enabling environment for communities to respond better to the impact of climate change
(Deresse, et al 2011).Moreover, in the study area still there is lack of conducted research to solve
the problem on impact of climate variability on food security particularly in the two sample
kebeles including the study area.

The study area is one of the seriously affected kebeles by climate variability. The frequent
rainfall variability during the kiremt and belg season affected local farmers’ food security.
In1990, 1993, 1996, 2003, 2006, and 2009 has affected the local farmers livestock food
insecurity (WMSA, 2009).

Therefore, this research has assessedwill assess the pattern of rainfall and temperature of study
area. Intend to assess the impacts of climate variability on food security and coping strategies
used by the local people against the challenge. The dependence of the local people on rain
fed agriculture and the recurrent occurrence of climate variability has been one of the reasons to
exposure the people to high food insecurity in the woreda.

Section 1.1 and 1.2 are very difficult to capture the whole message. They are disjointed. There
should be a smooth flow of ideas from one paragraph to the tother. It should be written in
systematic way. Start from general issues and proceed to specific matters and discussions. Start
from global issues then to Africa, Ethiopia, Oromia and then to Your study area. Please coin the
statements in this way. Otherwise writing statements as you like is not good.

1.3. Objective of the study

1.3.1 General objective
The general objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate variability of on farmers’ food
security and their adaptation strategies in the Arsi Robe Woreda Oromia regional state.

1.3.2. Specific objectives of the study

 To assess farmers’ perception and awareness to climate variability
 To analyze the pattern of climate variability in study area.
  To measre the status of farmers’ food security
 To examine the impact of climate variability on food security in study area
 To assess the adaptation strategies practiced by the people in study areas.

1.4. The Research Questions

Based on the stated objectives the study tired to answer the following basic research question.

 What are the major characteristics of climate variability in the study area?
 What are the impacts of climate variability constraints that make worse farmers vulnerability toon farmers’ food
security?
  What are the local adaptation and copping strategies to against climate variability impact on food
security in the Arsi Robe Woreda?

1.5. Significant of the Study

The study offers on the area significant evidence about trends impact of climate variability and it
contributes a better consideration of predicted cause of climate variability on agricultural products and
food security. This research will be essential so as to fight problem of food security with right adaptation
strategies of climate change/ variability. It also serve as the base line information to facilitate and
exchange ideas among local community, researcher, policy makers and development actors at different
institutional level by creating awareness on how to keep up local knowledge and put input for further
studies under threat of climate variability and change.

Moreover the research may also provide information for different stakeholder such as woreda leaders and
different organization affairs on impact of climate variability on food security in study area. More
specifically, the result of the study will help concerned bodies to formulate strategies and develop
intervention mechanisms that are tailored to the specific need to the study area. It will also provide the
opportunity for the stakeholders to involve in coping strategies of food insecurity. Finally the study will
help other researchers and concerned body to scale up the experience found for further investigation.
Similarly the study will be also used as a base for those who want to conduct further investigation
regarding the issue of impact of climate variability on food security.

1.6. Scope of the study

The scope focused on assessing the impact of climate variability on food security in rural household from
two selected sample kebeles of Arsi Robe woreda Oromia regional state. These two selected sample
kebeles have both Woina Dega and Dray woina dega. This help researcher identify the problems from
both type of climate zone. These kebele are Aboili and Akkiya Ayfila. And, study focused more on
farming dependent segment of population rather than engaged in various works. The study area is selected
purposely based on the researcher’s previous and current knowledge for the woreda and sample kebeles
were selected randomly.

1.7. Limitation
Some limitations in conducting this research; especially at financial, time and resource (secondary data
materials), subject people confidence in giving real information (under estimating or over estimating of
information on their income and loss of assets) regarding questionnaires, access of information (lack of
internet) on the topic selected and distance from the university, are among some limitations that will
expect.
2. Literature Review

2.1. Concept and definition

Climate: climate is usually defined as the average weather or more rigorously as statistical description in
terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over 30 years, as defined by world Metrological
Organization (WMO, 2007).

Weather: is a short term phenomenon, describing atmosphere, daily air temperature, pressure on
humidity, wind speed (IPAC, 2007).

Climate variability: Refers to variations in the mean and other climate statistics (standard deviation, the
occurrence of extremes, etc) on all temporal and spatial scale beyond those of individual weather events.
Variability may result from natural internal processes within the climate system or from variation in
natural or anthropogenic external force. Climatic variability can be considered as a component of climate
change. According to the IPCC, climatic Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the
climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external
variability).

Food: Any substance consumed to provide nutritional support for the body.(https://en.wikipedia,org//
wiki/food).

Food security: Exists when all people, at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe
and nutritious food to meet their dietary need and food preference for an active and healthy life. It is the
measure of the availability of food and individuals ability to access it.

Food insecurity: The state of being without reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable,
nutritious food. The condition assessed in the food security survey and represented in USDA food
security reports is a household-level economic and social condition of limited or uncertain access to
adequate food.

Adaptation: Refers to a response to climate related disaster that is not prevented by mitigation efforts. It
is coping with those climate change effects that we will not prevent. It is already happening as a response
to climate change along with climate variability and other no climate factors. It is the principal way to
deal with the impacts, protect communities and strengthen the resilience of the economy (Goodwin,
2008).
Coping Capacity: Refers to the ability of a household to mitigate the impact to drought and other shocks
after they occur according to (Cervigni et al., 2016)

2.2. Theoretical part

2.2.1. Climate Variability
It refers to variations in the mean state and other climate statistics (standard deviations, the occurrence of
extremes, etc).On all temporal and spatial scales beyond those of individual weather events. Variability
may result from natural internal processes within the climate system or from variations in natural or
anthropogenic external force. It is climatic parameter of a region varying from its long term mean. Every
year in specific time period the climate of the location is different. Some years have below average
rainfall, some have average or above average rainfall. In earth’s history, the term is commonly used to
describe the current climate change now underway (Cronin 2015).

Weather can be highly variable on a daily, weekly or even yearly basis one day be sunny and the next it’s
snowing. Climate on the other hand doesn’t change day to day because it is based on longer time scales
and averages. Climate variability is the way aspects of climate (such as temperature and precipitation)
differ from an average. Climate variability occurs due to natural and sometimes periodic changes in the
circulation of the air and ocean, volcanic eruption and other factor (Adger,2006).Climate variability is
often natural, however climate change is causing an increase in the probability of many extreme weather
events and those events contribute to climate variability (Iscar,2014).

2.2.2. Cause of climate Variability

Currently, climate variability is hot issue across the globe. Especially in countries where rain fed
agriculture the region as is means of livelihood. Climate variability increase the risk of hunger in effects
all four components of food security, food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food
stability. Rainfall shortage or excess hampers food production in the region, causing food insecurity and
escalating famine. Extreme weather is affecting people indirectly through the sequential rather direct
depletion of their assets. Therefore, looking on the impact of climate on food security is crucial to build a
sustainable production system.

According to World Health Organization,(2003) an increase in global temperature in turn leads increase
in rainfall intensity and rainfall variability. The assistance of extreme weather events, increase in drought
,hurricanes, flooding, and temperature in turn likely to exacerbate the frequency and magnitude of
epidemics from water borne disease.
2.2.3. Impact of climate Variability on at Global scale
Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glacier has shrunk, ice on
rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering
sooner. The world climate has already changed and will continue to change dramatically and change is
manifested in the recurrent drought, floods and famine that have threatened million of people and
livestock in recent decades (Simane et al 2001).The average global surface temperature is predicted to
increase by 2.80c during this century (IPCC,2007).Such global warming would alter the natural climate
and environmental systems, leading to increased frequency of extreme weather event such as drought,
storms, flooding, rising of sea level, reversal of ocean currents and changes in precipitation patterns(Zerga
2016 at el,).This vulnerable to climate variability due to its dependency on small holders and subsistent
farmers who completely based on rain fed agriculture that affected by climate variability. Studies argue
that climate change will be a major challenge to the country’s efforts towards achieving food security and
sustainable exit from poverty. The agriculture sector which contributes more than 45% of GDP,80% to
the labor force and 85% to foreign exchange earnings is highly susceptible to climate change.

2.2.4. Impact of climate variability in Africa

Recent studies confirm that Africa is one of the continent’s most vulnerable to the impact of climate
change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007:65).Nyong (2005) argues that
climate change can seriously hamper the realization of the development goals and aspiration of the
continent.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its fifth assessment report, remarks that
climate change is negatively affecting crops, livestock, and fisheries. Also, climatic variability is
threatening the agriculture sector and food security through the loss of rural livelihoods, the loss of
marine ecosystems, inland water ecosystems, and the breakdown of food systems (IPCC, 2014).For
example, disasters that hit tropical areas destroy the stability and food security of communities living
there. Therefore, these tropical zones often witness food insecurity crises; especially that agriculture
sector in these regions employs from 30 to over 80 per cent of the population (FAO, 2015).

BY 2020,250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress. By 2020, yields from
rain-fed agriculture could be reduced in some countries by up to 50% there by adversely affecting food
security; towards the end of the twenty first century, projected sea level rise will affect low-lying coastal
areas with the cost of adaptation amounting to at least 5% to 10% of GDP. By 2080, an increase of 5 to8
% of arid and semi-arid land is projected (IPCC, 2007:50).
The Horn of Africa region has been attracting the attention of many researchers and donors as well due to
the food crisis that led to famine conditions and severe food shortage in most parts of Somali, Ethiopia
and eastern parts of Kenya during 2011 and 2012 boreal summer (IPCC,2007). While many parts of the
world also faced different weather challenges among others, the Horn of Africa situation was exacerbated

Climatic variability impacts food security through its great negative effect on food prices. Because food is
a basic necessity good and the demand for food is highly price inelastic, a decrease of food surplus may
lead to an important increase in food prices, thus reducing food.

2.2.5. Impact of Climate Change in Ethiopia

The recently published Ethiopia environment outlook report discloses that climate variability and change
are among the pressing issues already affecting the livelihood of most Ethiopians (EPA and UNEP,
2008). The country is highly affected by climate change due to three main reasons. About 80% of the
population is largely depending on rain-fed agriculture, low income country, varied geographical
locations with different magnitude of climate impacts. Climate change induced El Nino increased the
average temperature and affect rainfall patterns in time and space leading to a recurrent drought which
results in food insecurity particularly in dry and semi dry areas of the 1980’s along with dozen of local
droughts. Recently in 2015 10 million peoples, in 2017 5 million peoples are food insecure as a result of
drought caused by climate change induced ELNino.

In Ethiopia climate change is already taking place now, thus past and present changes helps to indicate
possible future changes. Over the last decades, the temperature in Ethiopia increased at about 0.2-0.37 0c
per decade (Kassahun 2008)

The average annual volume of rainfall over the past 50 years(from 1951-2000) remained more or less
constant for the whole country(NMSA 2001).Many authors agreed that mean annual rainfall showed a
slight decreasing trend and higher year to year variation was observed in 1950-2010.However,rainfall
distribution across the country shows a marked difference. There is a tendency for less rain to fall in the
northern part of the country where there is already massive environmental degradation. The same trend
can be observed in the south East and North East of the country which is both often affected by drought
(Mangistu, 2000). The rise in temperature and fluctuations in rainfall crate many problems for the
pastoralist who live in the already drought stricken areas which are receiving less and less rain. They have
already switched from cattle to goats and camels, as they are more able to endure the long periods of
drought. In central part of the country more rain will mean further erosion of the soil and lower crop
yields for small holder farmers and lead to flooding in the more low lying areas. Climate change is
affecting how long the farmers have grown their crops. In addition, warmer possible to conclude that not
only the rainfall distribution that has changed but provides better growing conditions for the pests and
other disease that attack crops and destroy the farmers harvest (Mangistu 2008; Kassahun 2008; Deresse,
2008).Therefore, it is possible to conclude that not only the rainfall distribution that has changed but it has
also become warmer in the last 60 years.

Climate related hazards in the country include drought, floods, heavy rains, strong winds, fronts, heat,
waves and etc. Drought is believed to be the single most important climate-related natural hazard
affecting the country (FDRE, 2007).The other climate related hazard affecting Ethiopia is flooding. Major
floods causing loss of life and property occurred in different parts of the country in
1988,1993,1994,1995,1996 and 2006(FDRE,2007).Causes for vulnerability to climate variability and
change in Ethiopia included very high dependence on rain-fed agriculture(which is very sensitive to
climate variability and change).

2.2.6. Ethiopia: Climate change and food insecurity

One of the sustainable development goals contains the following: End hunger, achieve food security,
improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. However, it seems quite challenging in view of the
impact of climate change on agriculture, to achieve the goal (Alemayew 2016). Several studies show that
global climate change risks exacerbates the level of food insecurity and malnutrition in complex ways
(FAO 2008; Moorhead 2009; IFPRI 2010; WFP 2012;Zewdie 2014;Aggarwal et al. 2016; FAO
2016a).The impact of climate change events both on food and livestock production and consequently
on people‘s lives is not a recent phenomenon in Ethiopia. The country‘s agriculture is vulnerable to
risks of climate change. For decades, more prolonged droughts and a declining and low level of mean
annual rainfall over time and a high inter-annual fluctuation and increasing temperature are the
country‘s major environmental stressors causing farmers‘ food insecurity. Since the early 1980s seven
major and several localized droughts as well as failure of seasonal rains have negatively affected
production (CARE-Ethiopia 2014). Climatic variability impacts food security through its great negative
effect on food prices. Because food is a basic necessity good and the demand for food is highly price
inelastic, a decrease of food surplus may lead to an important increase in food prices, thus reducing food
accessibility.

2.2.7. Poverty, vulnerability and food Insecurity in Ethiopia

Studies indicate the levels of poverty and vulnerability in Ethiopia remain very high (IFPRI 2015, FAO
2016, on average 32% and 40% of the Ethiopia population are undernourished and consume less than the
recommended daily calories, respectively (IFPRI 2015).Moreover, the FAO (2016) situation report
indicates that more than 10.2 million people needed food assistance in 2016, more than at any other time
since 2006.
The prevalence of food insecurity and related vulnerability is generally high in rural part of Ethiopia,
where 79 % of the population live (world Bank 2018), with rain-fed subsistence farming dominating
agricultural production. About 10% of the Ethiopia’s citizens are chronically food insecure and this figure
rises to more than 15% during frequent drought years; 2.7 million people require emergency food
assistance in 2014 and 238,761 children require treatment for several and acute malnutrition in 2014.
Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate variability. The agriculture sector which
contributes more than 45% of GDP,80% to labor force and 85% to foreign exchange earnings is
highly susceptible to climate change. More than 95% of crop production which is rainfall dependent has
been produced by small holders and subsistent farmers who have less capacity to adaptation of climate
change (MOFED, 2015).

The level of vulnerability and food insecurity mainly depends on the performance of agriculture
(Demeke et, al, 2011).Therefore, household vulnerability and food security largely depends on a
combination of both natural and manmade factors, including rainfall patterns, land degradation,
population density, climate change low level of rural investment, volatile input and gain prices, drought,
pest hazard, frost and flooding (Gelaw, 2012).

The poor in Ethiopia face the most sever constraints in their own food production and in their access to
food from the market which makes them vulnerable to food security crisis (Subbaro and Smith,
2003).Ethiopia is one of the food in secure countries in the world, and recent studies showed that
Ethiopia’s poor continue to become poorer and poorer and the livelihood of greater number one of
chronically food insecure households is increasing from year to year.

Recently, the impact variability on food security has become debatable. Many researchers have analyzed
this relationship empirically the consequently mixed findings have been reached. Some studies have
indicated that climate change has negative impact on agricultural production, food availability, and could
result in food insecurity. While others have reported that positive and negative impact of climate change
may occur on different crop.

Climate variability and change is the most complex and challenging phenomenon affecting the global
community. Scientific evidences indicated that global climate change is attributable to natural an
anthropogenic factors (Mbow et al., 2019).

On the other hand, Ethiopia’s contribution to the global green house gases emission (GHG) is limited due
to its lower economic activity. Climate variability affects the production and productivity of the crop
sector by decreasing soil fertility, increasing pests and crop diseases and aggravating lack of access to
inputs and improved seeds and frequent drought and floods due to low irrigation scheme, poverty, high
population pressure, lack of institutional capacity to adaptation (Assefa et al., 2006; Mahmud et al.,
2008). Like any other developing countries, Ethiopia has two independent options to respond to
climate change/variability mitigation and adaptation. Given the low level of industry sector, mitigation
would not suit to Ethiopia.

Instead, adaptation measures such as use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early
and late planting, and use of irrigation should be taken by farmers to adapt to climate change (Temesgen
et al., 2008).Therefore, the objective of the study is to asses and review the major impacts of climate
change on crop production in Ethiopia.

2.2.8. Implication of climate change in Food security

Climate change affects agriculture and food production in complex ways. It affect food production
directly through changes in agro-ecological condition (e.g. changes in rainfall, leading to drought or
flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season),and
indirectly by affecting growth and distribution of incomes, and thus demand for agricultural
products(Gregory et al 2008).

Climate change is likely intensified high temperature and low precipitation in semi dry and dry areas, it is
the most dramatic effect that will be felt by small holder and subsistence farmers (Mendelson and Dinar
2009).According to IPCC 5th report climate change impacts in East Africa will increase risk of food
insecurity and breakdown of food systems increase risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to
insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agriculture productivity, particularly for
farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions. Risk due to extreme weather events
leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity water supply and
health and emergency services are also linked to these areas of concern (IPCC 2013).

Climatic variability impacts food security through its great negative effect on food prices. Because food
is a basic necessity good and the demand for food is highly price inelastic, a decrease of food surplus may
lead to an important increase in food prices, thus reducing food.

Achieving food security and reducing poverty in the Ethiopia has been a major challenge for both
governments and development agencies due to the result of many factors. Some of which are: land
degradation or poor in nutrients, the rapid population growth, the low and in appropriate use of
technologies such as improved varieties, fertilizers, mechanization and irrigation that have simulated
agricultural development elsewhere in the world(Mekuriaw et al,2008).The agricultural sector employs
between 85% of the active population and contributes close to 40$ of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP),generates about 88% of the export earning and supplies around75% of the raw material
requirements of agro-based domestic industries (Gebregziabher et al, 2011). Agriculture is a major source
of food and plays a key role in generating surplus capital to speed up the country’s socio -economic
development and hence the prime contributing sector to food security. Yet, agriculture in degraded and
semi-arid regions is highly risky enterprise due to unreliable and variable rainfall. According to Zenebe et
al (2011) as the effects of climate change on agriculture become negative, incomes drop off considerably.
At the end of 2050, because of climate change average incomes will be reduced. In the total factors
productivity growth scenario models showed that. Climate change a leads to a loss of some 30% of
income, compared with the no-climate change base line (Gebreegziabher et al 2011).

According to World Bank (2006), drought and floods are very common phenomena in Ethiopia with
significant events occurring every three to five years. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the
problem of rainfall variability and associated drought and flood disasters in Ethiopia (Mesfin 1984: NMA
2006; World Bank 2006).

2.2.9. The food security program of Ethiopia

Since moisture deficit areas known for their food insecurity problems, the implementation of the food
security program has started to yield results. Based on experience gained the program will be continue. In
this program there are parts that are inclusive and teeing one to the other. These are household asset
building, safety net, and settlement programs, as well as off- farm income generating activities. The safety
net program will be implemented jointly with household asset building program. Since it is also a
program that can solve the natural resource degradation problem, which intern is also the cause of the
food insecurity problem, and since it can enable to build community asset, efforts will be to effectively
implement the program and meet the objective. By targeting those safety net beneficiaries who are
involved in the household asset building component, packages that are based on the food security strategy
will be formulated. The packages will be inclusive of those which are suitable for moisture deficit areas,
water harvesting, and that can lead to result in low moisture and small area in order to ensure food
security (FORE GTP 2010).

2.2.10. Measuring Food Security

The United States Agency for International Development (USAD,1992) defined food security as a
situation when all people at all times have both physical and economic access to sufficient food needed to
meet their dietary needs for a productive and healthy life. Three pillars of food security are also identified
as food availability, food access and food utilization. Food insecurity on the other hand is the condition of
limited or uncertain ability to procure food required to meet dietary needs for a productive and healthy
life. Food insecurity problem in Ethiopia has been identified to be mainly access dominated. Food access
has been defined as the ability of individuals or households to acquire sufficient quantity(s) and quality of
food to meet all households’ members’ nutritional requirements (Langsworthy, 2013).
There are two major approaches to measuring the food access component of food security. The first of the
approaches to measuring food insecurity, albeit the access aspect is the quantitative approach which
though methodologically sophisticated and empirically grounded as a measurement scale, poorly reflects
an individuals’ true deprivation. This is because such scales use income-based measures of food
insecurity at the household level (Webb, 2002) which may not truly reflect food security or insecurity
status especially for households producing own food.
A more direct approach which would address household food experience arguably needs be evolved.
Recent field validation has shown the usefulness of qualitative approaches in measuring food insecurity in
the world over (Frongillo and Nanama,2003).Qualitative measures were found to be strongly correlated
with common indicators of poverty and food consumption as well as with indicators used by international
aid agencies for monitoring food security-related activities. For the purpose of measuring food insecurity
or the food access component of food security, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2008)
utilized two types of qualitative measures namely, the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS)
and the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS).

2.2.11. Ethiopia’s program of Adaptation to climate change (EPACC)

Adaptation to climate change will be crucial to ensuring food production and farmers’ livelihoods are not
adversely affected. At present government has in place strategies to promote such adaptation. They
include securing urban water supplies through the use of grey water system, desalination and waste water
recycling, to reduce the competition for water between agriculture and other consumers.Further
adaptation includes, including crop variations, changes to seasonal planting times and using modern
method of farming.

EPACC(Ethiopian Program of Adaptation of Climate Change) strategy adequately understood climate

change as a growing threat in Ethiopia and clearly elaborate the need to main stream climate change in all
spheres of development policy making and planning at all phases and stage of the planning and
implementation process. As a party to the UNFCCC, Ethiopia is obliged by several articles of the
convention to address climate change through the preparation or a national adaptation document of
climate change into its sect oral development plans, policies and strategies. The NAPA, prepared in 2007,
represented the first step in coordinating adaptation activities across government sectors, but was not
intended to be long-term strategy by itself. Ethiopia’s NAPA projects are currently “on hold” whilst
international adaptation funding mechanisms are under negotiation (Adem & Bewket, 2011).
Furthermore the country has launched a fifteen-year National adaptation plan that cost about USD six
billion annually to address climate change impacts. The plan s aimed to bring about transformational
change in the country in the country capacity to address the adverse consequence of climate change. The
focus areas were agriculture, forestry, healthy, transport, power, industry, water, and urban sectors that
are identified as most vulnerable (Zegeye H, 2017).

2.3. Empirical Study

This section include different research conducted on the title
As conducted research Africa by Badolo and Kinda (2014) has have succeeded in analyzing the causal
relationship between climatic variability and food security for 71 developing countries. Later on, some
papers have adopted the same model to study climate change impacts on food security in African
countries (Kinda, 2017; Singh, 2018).
According to Assefa et al. (2006), small-scale, rain fed, subsistence farmers and pastoralists are the
most vulnerable groups to climate changes in Ethiopia. They also indicated that climate change
impacted regions differently. Regions with arid, semi-arid, and dry sub humid low lands are more
vulnerable but low lands have been found less vulnerable to climate change. Diversification of
livelihoods, migration, nonfarm activities, and sales of assets, settlement and resettlement activities, and
the adoption of improved water management system are few measures that have been taken by
households to the impact of climate change.
Similarly, Mahmud et al. (2008) have studied the different impact of climate change adaptation on food
production. Farm households who have adapted to climate change have better food production level than
farm house holds that did otherwise. According to them significant share of farmers perceived the
mean temperature of Ethiopia has increased over the past 20 years. Thus farmers has taken a number of
adaptation measures including changing crop varieties, adapting soil and water conservation measures,
harvesting water and planning trees and changing planting and harvesting periods. Access to information
to future change in climate change, access to agricultural extension and credit services are determinants
that made difference on farmers to take adaptation measures (Mahmud et al., 2008). Global as well as
household level food availability can be affected by climate change for it directly affects agriculture
production through changes in agro-ecological conditions (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007).

Some scholars also argue that; “Global Food security will remain a worldwide concern for the next 50
years and beyond” (Rose grant and Cline, 2003 p. 2017).Compared to other parts of the world, food
insecurity is greatest in developing countries particularly in sub-Saharan African countries (Haile,
2005).More specifically; there could be adverse effect of temperature and precipitation variability on
crops production which in turn results in food insecurity. For instance, more than 85% of people in
Ethiopia depend on agriculture as their primary source of income. Hence their livelihoods can be
vulnerable to climatic conditions (Taye et al., 2010).
Ethiopian rural households are vulnerable to shocks, such as drought, that affects agricultural production.
Famine and drought affect food security and livelihood of rural households in the country. The country
suffered the worst food shortages during two periods of drought; 1968-1973 and 1979-1984. The country
recorded a better economic growth in recent years, according to the World Bank figures. The annual
growth rate of the country’s GDP, which was 71.14% in 1985 increased to 8.45% in 2015. However,
frequent drought and adverse climatic conditions which have been causing major fluctuations in
agricultural production are rendering the country one of the poorest in the world. Despite an immense
agricultural potential, it is still difficult for the country to feed its population and depends on foreign
donations of food to sustain millions of its citizens.
Though agriculture (particularly small-holder crop production) has been historically a major contributor
in the country’s economy, the sector suffers high yield variability in recent years. For instance, the sector
accounts about 48.76% of the GDP in 2012, employs more than 80% of the population, and accounts for
94% of the countries export (World Bank, 2013). However, its contribution in country’s GDP decreased
from 57.82% in 1985 to 48.76% in 2015. The impact of adverse climatic conditions may be exacerbated
by a number of other factors such as; under developed farming technology, communication networks,
transport, and environmental degradation. Rapidly growing density of rural population in the country is
another factor aggravating the condition due to its consequent pressure on land (Taye et al.,2010).
According to FAOWFP (2012), the programs have four components the Productive Safety Net Program
(PSNP); the Household Asset Building Program (HABP); the Complementary Community-based
Infrastructure Program (CCI); and the Resettlement Program. Broadly, the PSNP’s objectives are the
reduction of household vulnerability, the Improvement of household and community resilience to shocks
and breaking the cycle of dependence on aid (FAOWFP, 2012 food).
According to Davis cited by Adgar(1996), coping may be defined as acting to survive within the given
rules and systems; whereas adaptation involves changing the institutional arrangements and livelihood
strategies. National growth and transformation plan would enable the nation to double the agricultural
economic growth byregisting14.9% growth on average (Ethiopian five year development plan (2010/11-
2014/15 growth and transformation plan).
Conceptual Framework
To achieve the research objectives, the researcher developed a conceptual framework. The concept of
rural livelihood is very broad. However, the researcher tried to handle on, the impacts of climate
variability on food production on rural lively hoodlivelihood. Hence, from the framework one can see
the
relationship between the impacts of climate variability on crop and adaptation strategies applied by local
people at a time of adversity.

Impact of climate variability

Temperature Variability Rainfall Variability

Strategy out come

-Loss of productivity
-Reducing food and Crop production
Reduce food insecurity
-Food insecurity
by adaptation mechanism
Food and seed storage

On food security - Famine and Death planting early maturing crops

Conceptual framework (source: adopted from literature review)

 3. Research Design and methodology

3.1. Description of the study Area

3.1.1. Location and size
The study will be conducted in Arsi Robe Woreda which is one of the twenty eight woredas in East Arsi
zone, Oromia regional states. It is named after the Robe river, 80 km of which flows through the woreda.
Total area of the woreda is 133,005 kilometer square. The capital town of the woreda is Robe which is
located at distance of 225 km away from Addis Ababa and 98km far from zonal town of Asella. Robe is a
town found in 90,36’N and 390, 08’E with an elevation of 2435meter above sea level in south eastern of
Ethiopia (GPS).

The relative location of woreda is: bounded on South by Shebelle River which separates it from the Bale
zone, on the Southwest by Sherka, on the west by Tena, on the north by Sude, on northeast by Amigna
and on the east by Seru.
20
3.1.2. Topography and soil
The elevation of Robe woreda is ranges from 1200 to 4000m above mean sea level. Rivers include 45
km of the Hulul and 40 km of the Wabe; the gorge of Wabe is local landmark between Arsi and Bale
zone. A survey of the land in this woreda shows that 51.1% is arable or cultivable, 27.7% is considered
swamps, mountainous or otherwise unusable, 16.3% forest and the remaining 4.9% pasture. Clay, brown
and dark- brown on slopes and vertisols is areas that are more flat.(Government of Oromia Regional
State, 2006).

3.1.3. Climate
According to Ethiopian NMSA report (2018), the climate condition in Robe woreda varies from season to
season. However, generally small belg rainys season rains is from March to April, While, long and heavy
rains of summer onset mostly on June and offset on September. Long dry season of the years covers the
period from October to February. Similarly based on the records(WMSA,2018),the mean annual
temperature was between was 3.50c minimum toand 25.40c maximum , but according to the daily report of
meteorological agency in Robe Woreda there is an increasing of temperature in recent time.

The highest rainfall in the region occurs during summer season which starts in the beginning of June and
ends up in the end of September Rrainfall distribution in the region is characterized by high temporal and
spatial variability with annual average precipitation of 960mm (NMA, 2007).

3.1.4. Demography
Based on woreda administration office report in 2013, this woreda has an estimated total population of
215,177, of whom 109,943 were males and 105,234 were females 13.66% of its population are urban
dwellers, which is greater than the Zone average of 12.3% with an estimated area of 1,322.50kilometer
square. Robe has an estimated population density of 162.7 people per kilometer. The two largest ethnic
groups reported in Arsi Robe were the Oromo (82.93) and Amhra (15.38); all other ethnic groups made
up1.69% of the population. Oromiffa was Spoken as a first language by 80.01% and 19.19% spoken
Amharic; the remaining 0.8% spoken all other primary language reported.

3.1.5. socio- economic character of the study area

Agriculture is the main economic activities; from which majority of dwellers earn their live hood
income. The major crops grow in the district include, maize, wheat, bean, barley. The total area of the
study area is 133,000 hectors from this, total hector, that serving for crop production which is about
29,991hectors are currently used for farm, however, there are a number of problem related factors such as
poor belg seasonal rainfall and summer rainfall, weeding, disease of plants, poor farm technology, and
many other related factors hinders for the declining productivity in the study area.

21
 3.2. Research methodology
3.2.1. Research Design
This research will employed descriptive survey method. As a result; it employed a combination of various
methods of data collection to obtain both quantitative and qualitative types of data. To undertake the
study the researcher will selected the qualitative method to investigate the truth, rich and deep data to
have wide range of understanding about the perception and awareness as well as adaptation strategies of
the local people, while, quantitative method will employed to examine the relation between climate
variability and food security. The mixing of the two is expected to enhance the overall strength of the
study. Moreover a combination of various methods will employed to generate information for the study.

3.2.2. Sampling Techniques and Sample Size

The systematic sampling technique will be used by the research to select the sample household in the
study Arsi Robe woreda. Since the population was very large, it was impossible to collect data from
whole population. Therefore, the research used multistage sampling technique to select sample
respondents. Due to the limitation of time and budget to conduct this study, the researcher systematic
selected two kebeles (Aboli and Akkiya Ayfila) from 28 kebeles of Arsi Robe Woreda local area based on
accessibility for the study. Singleton (1993) noted that the ideal setting for any study should be easily
accessible to the researcher which permits instant rapport with the informants. Accordingly, for this study
data will collected from the sample population of household farmers in Arsi Robe woreda selection of the
study kebeles.

The second way is based on its agro climate zones (because both kebele have woina dega and kola type of
agro climatic zone).This helps the researcher to identify the impact of climate variability in both type of
agro climatic zone. Out of (1749) households from whom, 156 of will systematic selected. Finally, the
study will determine by using the following formula which was developed by

Yamane (1967). Because of the households of from these kebeles are homogeneous by margin of error
(8%).

n= N/1+N(e) 2

Where, N=Number of target population

n = sample size

e=margin of error, its value is 8%.

e = (8/100)2
 e = 0.08 × 0.08

e = 0.0064

So by solving the above formula, sample size was obtained as follows:

N= n1 +n2:

Aboli =1115

Akkiya Ayfila =734

N = 1115 + 734

N = 1749

n=1115/1+1115×0.0064

n= 1115/11.1936

n= 156.25 ~156

And also the number of sample each two kebeles was calculated as followed by using stratified sampling
formula.

n1=n1×n/ n1+n2

Aboili (n1) = 1115×156/1749

n1= 99.45

Akkiya Ayfila (n2) =n2×n/n1+n2

n2= 734×156/1749

n2=65.46

Total n =n1+n2

Total n=90.45+65.47

Total n=155.92~156
3. 2.3. Source of Data
For this study, two main sources of data will be used. These are primary and secondary sources of data.
As a Primary sources of data include the information that will be collected from selected sample
household using interview, focus group discussion and structure questionnaire.er will employed for this
study. The secondary sources of data will be generated by reviewing different historical climate records
and information about climate variability of NMA. Moreover, relevant literature from books, research
works, and journals, published and unpublished published documents, different reports like Rural
Development Office Report, Central statically Agency Arsi Robe woreda branches internet and woreda
planning office. Regarding he food security indicator consider proportion of people who do not have
access to sufficient crop production.

3.2.4. Primary data

Questionnaire: A total of 156 households will be interviewed-questionnaire designed by
researcher. Primary data will obtain through structure and semi-structure questionnaires.
Predesigned, pretested, both open ended and close ended questionnaire will be able to obtaining
the maximum available information from respondents. Questionnaire will be used to collect
household demographic and socio-economic characteristics details. Prior to conducting the
main survey, some pre-tests will be made by distributing some question to some farmers,
experienced people and colleagues. Changes will make in the design of some of the question on
the base of the comment before the survey. Completing the questioners will do by the researcher
based on the guide from the advisor. The questionnareer will be first designed in English and then
translated to Afan Oromo so that the assistances and researcher use it. For Amharic speaker
respondents it will be translateds to Amharic language.
Focus group discussion: to get access to valuable qualitative information with regard to the views of
community, public work out puts, gender aspects in the public workers and accessibility of package loans
focus group discussion will held. Accordingly, the focus groups will formed in each sample kebeles.
Key informant interview: Key informant interview will employ on issues of which relevant information
could not be acquired from other informants, such as weather station workers about temperature and
rainfall variation. Interview with members of the food security ask for at woreda and kebele level
including four Development Agent( DA), three Community leaders, ten elders and concerned officers
from woreda and other sect oral offices.
Interview: The interview question will provide to governmental and nongovernmental experts and
illiterate household heads within the sample population. Moreover, in order to get additional information
and maintain usefulness and reliability of the data and information, the researcher will use observation
and key informant interview for some individuals from government and non-government representatives.
Interviewees from the local farmers will selected through random sampling technique.In this study, in
order to get view and opinion on the impact of climate variability on food insecurity in selected kebeles
of Arsi Robe Woreda from respondents, interview is prepared to cross checking and substantiate the
result of the questionnaire. The interview permits greater depth of response which is not possible through
any other means. Thus, the purpose of the interview is to collect more supplementary opinion, so as to
stabilize the questionnaire response. With this in mind, interview will be also conducted with ten elders,
two development agent, two agricultural office representative and members of national metrological
agent at woreda level. Semi structure items will be prepared for the above respondents. The reason
behind the semi-structured interview items are the advantages of flexibility in which new questions
could be forwarded during the interview based on the responses of the interviewee.
Field Observation: The researcher will be employed a field observation to get some insights on
activities related to the public works projects and status of the community assets create by the different
projects. Here the researcher will attempted to draw partner’s sense out of his own systematic and critical
observation made during the field study. Accordingly, the information generated from field observation
were presented and analyzed along with the rest of the data. I will make field observation by walking
through the communities with someone who knew the place well, asking question and take notes about
what the farmers do for their living. Make observation helps in order to understand the problem detail.
According to the information generated from the field observation will present and analyzed along with
the rest of the data.

3.2.6. Secondary Data

To collect the secondary data, some relevant books, thesis, and office documents as well as web sites will
consult. Data on the number of household heads will obtain from the Woreda Administration Office and
types of activities farmers engaged in will collect from the Woreda Office of Agriculture and Rural
Development. Some statistical figures on population will collect from 2007 Population and Housing
Census of Ethiopia and woreda Central statically agency. To investigate the special and the temporal
climate variability of Robe Woreda during different seasons the Seasonal mean temperature from
National Metrological Agency(NMSA).To investigate the special and the temporal rainfall from Robe
during different seasons(kiremt, Belg and tsedey )the seasonal mean rainfall from Robe and NMSA and
WMSA since 1993-2013will use.

The researcher will decide to employ purposive and snowball sampling technique. The researcher will
focus on purpose sampling helps to approach development worker, beneficiary, religious leaders and
knowledgeable people to acquire relevant information. While, snowball sampling helps the researcher to
be interviewed in the process up to the study is exhausted.
3.3. Procedure of Data Collection
Just before the data collection, the researcher will be give half- day short training on how to approach
households, how to conduct the interview with elders and how to convince the respondent to get relevant
information on sensitive economic and social issues. After they will make aware of the objective of the
study and content of the questionnaire, pre-test is conducted under the close supervision of the researcher
if there might be any unclear or added questions.

Accordingly to ensure validity, instruments will be developed under close guidance of the advisor,
intensive consultation of relevant literature and a pilot study carried out to pre- test the instruments. The
draft questionnaire after examined with advisor it will be pilot- test in Arsi Robe Woreda on a sample of
three agricultural office experts and two agricultural office team leaders randomly selected which are not
included in the actual study. Based on the comments will be given by the advisor and above respondents,
some modification made on the questionnaire to make it clear and precise for the main respondents so as
to obtain the most reliable information. For data quality control the researcher will be check the internal
consistence of the research questionnaire.

3.4. Method of Data Analysis

The SPSS software will be used to analyze primary data collected by means of questionnaire. Descriptive
statistics using percentages, table, frequencies and mean will be employed to give some insights about
factors responsible for household’s impact of climate variability on food security, households copping
strategies to food security, the level of household food access and the prevalence of food security among
households in Arsi Robe Woreda based on responses of households. Data like monthly and annual rain-
full, maximum and minimum temperature also analysis. Also the data analysis will take by collecting
information regarding some, as far as possible representative items called the sample.
Qualitative data will be analyzed in different ways Patten (2002) identified some important step. The first
step will read the whole data, elaborate and add remarks questions using colors pens. The second steps
will develop a list of them according to research question. I will then interpret the themes by giving
explanation. The final step I will to bring the whole analysis together. All through the write up, I will vest
and revisiting the data to create connection between themes.
 4. Work Plan
Table 1: Time schedule

Months
Numb
Activities

February

May

July
April
January

March
September

October

November

August
Jun
December
er

1 Problem identification
2 Review of related literature
3 Proposal preparation
4 Proposal sub- mission
5 Proposal defenses
6 Revising the proposal
7 Design Data collection
8 Pilot test
9 Data collection
10 Data organizing
11 Thesis writing(first draft)
12 Submitting first draft
13 Writing the final report

14 Defense the thesis

5. Budget Breakdown

No Items Unit of Quantity Unit of Total

 measure price cost

1 Printing Paper Packet 4 200 800

2 CD – RW Pieces 5 20 100

3 Flash disk (8GB) Pieces 1 250 250

4 Stapler pieces 1 200 200

5 Scientific calculator Pieces 1 200 200

6 Thesis banding Pieces 10 20 200

7 Photo coping Pieces 1000 1 1000

8 Printing Pieces 100 3 300

9 Pen Packet 1 480 480

10 Total 3530

Table 2.Cost of Stationery

Table 3.Transport Cost

No Person Departure Destination Purpose Cost Number Total Cost

Work place Searching

1 Researcher Dilla 320 3 960
Literature Review

Study
2 Researcher Work place Collect data
kebeles 100 10 1000

3 Researcher Work place Adama Organize GIS data 2 75 150

3 Researcher Work place Dilla Communicate with 320 5 1600

 advisor

Total 3710

Table 4.per diem/day cost in Birr

No Person Number Total

Departure Destination Purpose Cost
Cost

Defense proposal
1 Researcher Work place Dilla
Literature Review 350 5 1750

2 Researcher Work place Study kebeles Collect data 100 16 1600

3 Researcher Workplace Adama Organize GIS data 350 2 700

Communicate
3 Researcher Work place Dilla 350 7 2450
with advisor

Total 6500

Table.5 Budget Summery.

No Description Total Birr

1 Stationery Expense 3530

2 Transport expense 3710

3 per diem expense 6500

4 Contingency& for internet 3510

access payment

Total cost 17,250

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 APPENDIX

APPENDIX I:

Questionnaires filled by Households

Dear respondents;

My name is Melese Getachew. I am a post graduate student at Dilla University School of social
sciences, department of geography and environmental studies Currently, I am writing my thesis on the
impact of climate Variability on food security in, Arsi Robe woreda. This questionnaire is designed to
obtain or gather data to develop a thesis for academic purpose and so, that are intended to investigate the
farmers perception and adoption of impact of climate variability on food security of the rural
households in case of Arsi Robe woreda. The success of this academic research depends on your
honest answer and, thus you are kindly requested to respond clearly and genuinely. You do not need
write your name and you may not respond if you are not comfortable with the questionnaires.

Thank you in advance!

1, Socio economic and demographic profile of HH heads

A. Demographic profile

1. Age of the household head

2. Sex of the household head

1. Male 2. Female

3. Marital status

1. Married 2. Single 3.Widowed 4.Divorced 5. Separated

4. Family size

5. Educational status of the household head

1. Illiterate 2.Elementary 3.Junior 4. Secondary School

5. Higher education

6. Monthly income

2. Livelihoods of the households

7. How much money you earn per-year (approximately?)

1. Enough 2. More than enough 3.Not enough

8. What are the main sources of income for the house hold?

9. Is your household income source sustains households annual living cost?

10. Is there a time of a year when your households encounter a shortage of specific food?

1. Yes 2. No

10.1. If your response is yes, how often it happens?

1. Usually 2. Sometimes 3. Often times 4. Rarely

10.2. For how long months In which months ,

11. How do you see your income last year (2012/13 E.C)?

1. As usual 2. Above the usual 3.Below the average

12. Do you have livestock? If yes, how many of the following do you have?

Type Oxen Cows Sheep Goats Horse Donkey poultry Hives

10 years cow
Now a day

13. What is the trend of livestock population in the area?

1. Decreasing 2. The same 3. Increasing 4. I do not know

14. What is the source of animal feed (rank the source of animal feed according to their

Importance) 1. Communal grazing land 2.Private grazing land 3. Crop residue

4. Hay 5. Other sources, specify

15. How do you describe the trend of animal feed?

1. Declining 2. The same 3.Increasing 4. I do not know

15.1. If it is declining, why is that?

1. Expansion of farm land 2. Degradation of grazing land 3. Drought

4. Expansion of settlement (Pop. Growth) 5.Others, specify

16. Constraints of livestock rising No Constraints 1 yes 2. No

NO Constraints 1 yes 2 No
1 Lack of sufficiently pasture(feed)
2 Stock disease
3 Poor stock management
4 Traditional altitude towards large number of livestock
5 Moisture stress(water scarcity due to drought)
4 Traditional attitude towards large number of live stock

5 Moisture stress ( water scarcity due to drought)

17. What should be taken as a remedy for shortage of animal feed?

1. Distributing communal grazing land for private use 2. Increasing grazing land area

3. Introduction of controlled grazing 4.Reduction in livestock number

5. Modernize feeding and management system

6. Others, specify

18. Do you have your own land? If yes, how many hectares do you have?

1 < 0.5 ha 2. 0.5 ha 3. 1 ha 4. 1.5 ha 5. 2.0 ha 6. >2 ha 100

19. How do you perceive the fertility of your farm land?

1. Improving 2. Constant 3.Declining 4. Do not know

19.1. If the fertility of your land is declining what is the indicator?

20. How did you get the land you have currently? (Mo re than one choice is possible)

1. Through renting 2. Through share cropping 3. Inherited from parents

4. Allocated by Kebele

21. How do you perceive the distance of cultivation field from your home?

1. near 2. Moderate 3.Far 4. Very far

22. How do you perceive the productivity of your land?

1. Increasing 2. Decreasing 3.Constant 4. Do not know

22.1. If the yield from your farm land is decreasing, what could be the reason behind?

(More than one answer is allowed)

1. Absence of fallowing 2.Poor access to chemical fertilizers 3. Unreliable rainfall 4. Erosion/runoff 5.

Over cultivation 6. Pest s

7. Moisture stress 8. Other reasons

23. How was/is the amount of agricultural production before a decade compared with this

time? 1. Has no change 2.Decreased in crop yield 3.Increased in crop yield 4. Standard crop growth.
24. What is your house hold health status? 1. Fully healthy 3. Have prominent sickness

2. Some times (occasionally become) sick

25. What are the causes of disease in your family mostly? (Put in order of se verity)

1. Nutritional problems 3. Sanitation problem 5. Malnutrition 2. Poor access to health care

4.Environmenta problem 6. Food shortage

26. How far is the nearest modern health center, put it in hour to walk 101 1. During wet

season 2.In dry season 3.When there is drought

27. Do the household get sufficient water for the whole years? 1. Yes 2. No

28. From where the house hold get water? 1. River 2. Unprotected spring 3.Protected spring 4. Hand dug
well 5. Pond 6. Open wells 7. Others, specifying

29. The walking distance to water source is hr.?

1. During wet season 2. In dry season 3. When there is drought

30. How far is the nearest market form your village? Put it in hour to walk

31. Is the market large enough to sell your production? 1. Yes 2. No

32. How long you travel to reach to motor able road

33. To which media you have access? (Allowed multiple response)

34. Do you have access to mobile telephone? 1. Yes 2. No

3. General perceptions about climate change and vulnerability in the area

35. Have you heard about the issue of climate change? 1. Yes 2. No

35.1. If yes, what problems you have faced due to the change of climate?

(More than one choice is possible, underline the answer). 1. Fluctuation of rainfall 2. Increased
temperature 4. Disease incidence like malaria 5. Deforestation 7. Cold temperature 3.More flooding 6.
Hail storm 8. Drought

36. Did you notice changes in the amount of rain fall in your area in last 20yrs? 1. Yes 2. No

37. Did you notice changes in the amount of temperature in the last 20 yrs? 1. Yes 2. No 102

37.1. If yes, what happened to rainfall and temperature in your opinion? (Mark“*” in the box)
 Increase Decrease
Rainfall
Temperature

38. Are you vulnerable to climate change related problems? 1. Yes 2. No

38.1. If yes, which of the following affects your life please put in order of severity?

1. Drought

2. Food inadequacy 7. Poor grazing land

3. Flood 8. Malnutrition

4. Price fluctuations for agricultural products 9. Migration

5. Shortage of water supply 11 .Others, specify

6. Shortage of animal’s feed

39. What happened to pattern of rainfall on set and cessation in your area in the last 20 years?

1. Rain fall amount decreased 3. Time of onset became late

2. Rain fall amount increased 4. Time of cessation became earlier or late

5. Rarely season become shorter

4. Adaptive and Coping Strategies

40. Do you think that is it possible to avert or adapt to the impact of climate change by action

in your locality?

1. Yes----- 2. No--------

41. What local actions/coping do you think and possible in your capacity?

(It is possible to give opinion more than one actions)

1. Reforestation and a forestation 6. Migration to other area

2 Doing additional non-farm activities 7. Diversification of households income

3. Soil and water conservation 8. Change in cropping pattern

4. Irrigation 9. Others, specify

5. Selling small animals and charcoal

42. Do you use irrigation? 1. Yes 2. No

42.1. If yes, when you start irrigation?

42.2. If no, what is the reason?

1. No access to water 3. Financial problem

2. Cultural practices 4. Lack of awareness

5. No irrigable land 6. Others, specify

43. Do you have off-farm or non-farm income resources? 1. Yes------- 2. No------------

44. Do you change the cropping pattern? Why do you change so?

1. Because of the change in rainfall pattern

2. Because the changed crop price in the market

3. Governmental or other developmental organizations forced to do it

4. Because of increased temperature 5. Others, specify

45. Is there food insecurity in your locality? 1. Yes 2. No

46. If yes what factors do you think have caused food insecurity? Indicate their level of
influencing causing the problem?

NO Cause of shortage of problem 1 yes 2 No

1 Rainfall
2 Torrential Rainfall
3 Animal Disease prevalence
4 Poor soil fertile
5 Deforestation
6 Farmland shortage
7 Pest infestation
8 Low non-farm income
9 Poor access to modern farm in pute
10 Traditional farm practice
11 Land fragmentation
12 Overgrazing
13 Lack of access to market information
14 Poor access to motor able transport shortage of labor
15 Old age
16 Poor access to Gov’t/NGO service
17 Poor access to credit
18 Land lessens
19 Crop type
47. Do you use food consumption related coping mechanisms in times of food crises? How often did you
cope using the following mechanism?

No strategy
1,eating food that were less preferred 2,2-5 times/week 3,1-2 times/week 4,Never
2,Reducing consumption amount
during each meal
3,Skipping meal for adults to feed
children instead
4,change type of food
5,Not eating for whole day some
times

48. How many times does your HHs normally eat every day?

1. 2 meals 2 .3 meals 3.4 meals 4.1 meals

49 .In times of famine caused by drought, who helps you best? Put in order

1. Relatives 3. Friends’ 3.NGOs 4.The government 5.Traditional association

6. Cooperatives 7. Others, specify

50. Do you think the government services are adequate in minimizing your vulnerability and

diversifying your livelihood?

1. Yes 2. No (please explain your answer)

51. What type of aid do the government and other institutions give you?

1. Supplying agricultural input 2. Giving money 3. Food aid

4. Facilitating additional job opportunity 5. Showing different mechanisms

6. Specify (if others)

Thank you!!!!!

APPENDIX II:

Checklist for Focus Group Discussion /FGD

Check lists questions for focus group discussion to be held at Arsi Robe Woreda
1. How many households are there in kebele?

2. What is the main climatic zone of this kebele?

A. Dega B. Woina Dega C. Kola D. Extreme cold E. Others

3. What is major livelihood of this area? Is it related with climate variability? How?

4. Which rain are you dependent on? Put in priority importance?

A. Belg B. Meher C. Kiremt D. Bega

5. How was the vegetation cover in the past? How is today?

6. Is there change in temperature and rain fall pattern? What do you think the reason?

7. Which year was memorable with big crises of crop output in the past two decades?

8. Have you faced food insecurity? How you explain it in relation with climate change?

9. Do you participate in the rehabilitation of natural resources? What is your benefit?

10. What are the local coping mechanisms used to reduce the impacts of climate change and

food insecurity? Please list community based, governmental and/or NGOs assistance?

11. Is there irrigation schemes? How you practice it?

12. Have you encountered unconditional pest infestations? When?

13. Do you use fertilizers (organic or inorganic)? For what purpose?

14. Which crop and livestock types is more resistance to climate variability?

Thank you!!!!!

APPENDIX III

Checklist for Key Informant Interview /KII

Which include experts from agricultural offices, land and environment protection office,
Woreda administration, water resource office, mineral and energy office, disaster prevention

and preparedness office, Woreda health office, kebele DA, kebele chairman,…etc.

Thank you in advance for your cooperation!!

1. Name 2. Position----------3 Education /profession

3. In your view, are there climate change /variability in woreda? If yes, please tell me

the Pattern. Which year was the most devastative in the past two decades?

4. Is the amount of rainfall and temperature increased or decreased over 20 years in

Arsi Robe Woreda?---------------------What do you think the reason for this?

6. Can you explain the general relationship between climatic variability, agricultural Production
and food security?

7. Please can you tell me the major agricultural practices (crops &livestock) in Arsi Robe Woreda?

8. Based on your experience, what look like its implication and trend on crop output in the Woreda for
last 20 years?

9. Is there food insecurity problem in the area? What can be its causes?

10. Describe who are likely to be the most vulnerable people to food insecurity in that
Community and why? What indigenous and learned strategies might be used to support these?

Vulnerable people?

11. Which agro-ecological zones of households are more vulnerable to food insecurity?

Why and in which season?

12. What are the local coping mechanisms used to reduce the impacts of climate change and food
insecurity? Please list community based, governmental and/or NGOs assistance?

13.Is there any disease that damage agricultural production rather than climate variability? Please
list them?

14. Is there any irrigation system in Arsi Robe Woreda? Which crops produced? How many

Percent it cover from total land of Woreda? Thank you!!!!!