Principles and Application of

Environmental Modeling
(GISR 504)

Abebe Mohammed Ali

Wollo University
1. Introduction
Introduction to environmental
modeling
• Modelling is an essential tool to understand reality.
• Models are representations of the environment that
can be used to inform regulation or management
decisions.
Introduction to …
• Environment is a complex subject.
• It can be studied from a variety of disciplinary
perspectives ranging from the physical to the
sociological.
• Single-disciplinary experts attempting to describe
reality at the human-environment interface is like the
four blind men trying to imagine the shape of the
elephant by touching different parts of the animal’s
body.
• When decisions for positive human-environment
relations must be based upon integrated
multidisciplinary data and knowledge, modelling
becomes an indispensable skill and tool.
Introduction to …
• A model is defined as: “A simplification of reality that is
constructed to gain insights into select attributes of a
physical, biological, economic, or social system. A
formal representation of the behavior of system
processes, often in mathematical or statistical terms.
The basis can also be physical or conceptual.” EPA
(2009a)
• The term model can be an ambiguous word used to
describe an ‘abstraction (or parameterization) of
reality.’ Models can take on many forms, the most
common and relevant forms are computational and
conceptual models.
WHY ARE MODELS USED?
• Models have a long history of helping to explain
scientific phenomena and predict outcomes and
behavior in settings where empirical observations are
limited or not available.
• The use of models has increased significantly.
• Models do not generate “truth”. They are based on
simplifying assumptions of environmental processes
and cannot completely replicate the inherent
complexity of the entire environmental system.
• Despite these limitations, models are essential for a
variety of purposes;
WHY ARE MODELS USED?
1. To diagnose (i.e., assess what happened) and
examine causes and precursor conditions (i.e., why it
happened) of events that have taken place
• they can provide analyses and information used to
inform decision making process. Policy decisions
should be informed by the best information and data.
However, researchers are confronted with many
constraints when obtaining data [e.g. time, access,
and resources (funding, equipment, staff)].
• Where there is a shortage of data and information,
models can be used to provide useful insight. In
general, models can help users study the behavior of
ecological systems, design field studies, interpret
data, and generalize results.
WHY ARE MODELS USED?
2. To forecast outcomes and future events (i.e., what
will happen).
• Models are used to make long- and short-term
forecasts to extrapolate from the past and answer
“what-if” questions. Models can also be used to
provide concise summaries of data, in both diagnostic
and regulatory contexts.
• The relationship between data and models is
changing. The increasing availability of data may
promote new model development or application of
existing models to new data.
WHY ARE MODELS USED?
• However uncertainties and assumptions associated
with any model must be considered – as with
observational data – before model generated results
are applied in any context.
• “Fundamentally, the reason for modeling is a lack of
full access, either in time or space, to the phenomena
of interest. In areas where public policy and public
safety are at stake, the burden is on the modeler to
demonstrate the degree of correspondence between
the model and the material world it seeks to represent
and to delineate the limits of that correspondence.”
(Oreskes et al. 1994)
WHY ARE MODELS USED?
Models can be used to inform a variety of activities
including:
• Research
• Toxicity screening
• Policy analysis
• National regulatory decision making
• Implementation applications
MODEL STRUCTURE
In any modeling exercise, the system of interest should
be defined. This definition is not only used to identify the
boundaries of the model, but also serves to define how
the model can be applied and to which
systems/situations.
Model developers should answer the following questions:
1. What processes is the model attempting to reproduce
and include?
2. At what time scale are the included processes
occurring?
3. At what spatial scale are the included processes
occurring?
MODEL STRUCTURE
Therefore, model structure
can be described two ways:
1. Included Processes
(chemical, physical, or
biological)
2. Scope / Scale (time or
space)
A Modeling Caveat
• Models are typically (and should be) developed for a
well defined system and a set of conditions under
which the use of the model is scientifically defensible –
the application niche.
• The identification of application niche is a key step
during model development and helps guide future
application of the model.
THE MODEL LIFE-CYCLE
The model life-cycle is ongoing, and there are many
instances when earlier stages are revisited to refine the
model.
1. Identification
o Determine correct decision-related questions and
establish modeling objectives
o Define the purpose of the modeling activity o
Specify the model application context
2. Development
o Develop the conceptual model that reflects the
underlying science of included processes
o Derive the mathematical representation of that
science and then encode into a computer program
 3. Evaluation
o Peer Review
o Conduct formal
testing to ensure
model expressions
have been encoded
correctly
o Test model outputs
by comparisons with
empirical (and
independent) data
4. Application
o Run the model and
analyze outputs to
inform a decision
The lifecycle follows a general
iterative progression.
THE IMPORTANCE OF DATA
QUALITY
• The quality of the data is fundamental to
environmental modeling throughout the modeling life-
cycle.
• Quality assurance is therefore necessary throughout
the stages of the modeling lifecycle.
• Indicators of data quality include the quantitative and
qualitative measures of principal quality attributes such
as quality assurance (QA), quality control, and peer
review.
• The data are subject to data quality objectives and
other QA measures.
Indicators of data quality
• Precision – the quality of being reproducible in amount
or performance
• Bias – systematic deviation between a measured (i.e.,
observed) or computed value and its “true” value.
• Representativeness – the measure of the degree to
which data accurately and precisely represent a
characteristic of a population, parameter variations at
a sampling point, a process condition, or an
environmental condition
• Comparability – a measure of the confidence with
which one data set or method can be compared to
another
Indicators of data quality
• Completeness – a measure of the amount of valid
data obtained from a measurement system
• Sensitivity – The degree to which the model outputs
are affected by changes in a selected input
parameters.
What is Spatial Modeling?

Map is the most famil

Map is the most popular model in GIS

What is Spatial Modeling?
• A model of some process operating in space (and
time)
– there is variation across the space (and through
time)
– location is important
• the results of modeling change when locations
change
• locations must be known
Spatial Modeling
• Spatial Model:
– Abstraction of something spatial
– Typically on, or near, the earth’s surface
• Spatial Processing:
– Converting spatial data for a specific use
• Spatial Analysis:
– Analysis that uses spatial data
• Spatial Simulation:
– Models something that has or could occur
spatially and temporally
Spatial Modeling
• Verifiable against the real world
• Robust; repeatable and insensitive to
parameter variance
• Methods are transparent to modelers
and stake holders
• Simple to understand
• Applicable to a real-world situation
• Real world is within uncertainty bounds
of the prediction
What’s the problem?
• We need to make better decisions!
• The issues we need to solve are:
– Getting larger spatially
– Involving more complex data
– Involving more data
– Require special algorithms
– Require meeting the needs of, and
communicating with, much larger groups of
people
• These issues cannot be solved with
traditional GIS analysis
What’s the solution?
• ArcGIS has limited ability to:
– Manage complex datasets
– Process large datasets
– Create custom models
– Run batch processes
• Have to use ArcGIS appropriately, find
other solutions to tough problems
–R
– BlueSpray
– Others…
Spatial Data Can be Big!
• MODIS:
– Entire earth at 250 meters resolution twice a
day
• Landsat:
– Entire earth at 15/30 meters twice a month
for over 30 years
• DayMet: Daily Climate Predictions
• LiDAR point clouds
• And now we have UAVs!
Breaking it down
• “Type” of spatial data:
– Points
– Polygon
– Polyline
– Rasters
• Attributes/Measures:
– Continuous, categorical measures
– Dates
– Descriptive text
• Remotely sensed vs. Field data
Putting it Together
• Almost all spatial data has:
– Measures: occurrences, height, etc.
– Spatial coordinates
– Temporal information
• Can also have:
– 2D, 3D, “4D”, or N-dimensions
– Relational and/or hierarchical structure
How the data is stored
• Large files (to be avoided)
• Large sets of files
• Relational databases (don’t put rasters in
a database)
• Distributed networks
• Hierarchical storage
General Modeling Methods
• Density:
– Points (occurrences) -> Density surface
• Interpolation:
– Points with measured values -> Continuous
Surface
• Correlation/Regression:
– Points with measured values & continuous
covariant -> Continuous surface
• Simulations:
– Very general
Density
• Find a density, abundance,
concentration, of discrete occurrences
• Examples:
– Plants and animals
– Disease
– Crime

en.academic.ru
Density Methods
• Minimum Convex Polygon
• Kernel Density Estimates (KDE)

Wikipedia
Interpolation
• Creates a raster with values for each
pixel based on the proximity of sample
points
• Examples:
– Climate layers from weather stations
– Biomass from tree diameters (DBH)
– Soil maps from pits
– DEMs from points
• Must have:
– Autocorrelation
Interpolation: Methods
• Kriging
• Nearest-Neighbor
• Bilinear
• Spline
• Bezier Surface
• Natural Neighbor
• Delaunay Triangulation
• Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW)
• Kernel Smoothing
• Others…
Correlation/Regression
• Variable being predicted is dependent on
other variables (N-dimensional space)
• Examples:
– Habitat Suitability / Species Distributions
– Fire potential
– Land use change
– Disease risk
– Productivity
Correlation or Dependence
• Systems of differential equations
• Common Statistical Functions
• Kernel functions
• Bayesian Inference
• Regression
• Index Models
• Trees
• Neural Nets
• “Graphical” techniques
• Machine Learning Methods
• Combinations of the above
Non-Linear Correlation

Several sets of (x, y) points, with the Pearson correlation coefficient

of x and y for each set.

Wikipedia
Simulations
• Use computer software to create a
“simulation” for a general phenomenon
• Examples:
– Climate simulations
– Population models
– Disaster scenarios
– Fire models
– Shipping
Simulations
• Cellular automaton
• Agent-Based
Typical Spatial Models
• Flood Planes
• Potential Habitat/Species Distribution
• Soil Erosion
• Ice Extents
• Climate Models
• Oil Spill Extents
• Bark Beetle Infestation
• Geologic Layers
• Flight Control Software
Atmospheric humidity on June 17, 1993, NASA
Model Characteristics
• Stochastic or Deterministic
• Transparent or “Black Box”
• Simple or Complex
• Rigorous or Lax
• Applied or Theoretical
• Internal or “External” Evaluation
• Parametric or Non-Parametric