Stock Update

Laurus Labs Ltd

Concerns Overdone; growth prospects intact
Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Pharmaceuticals Sharekhan code: LAURUSLABS Company Update

3R MATRIX + = - Summary
Š We re-iterate a Buy recommendation on the stock of Laurus Labs (Laurus) with an
Right Sector (RS) ü unchanged PT of Rs. 800. Stock price has corrected by ~16% from its highs and this
provides a good entry point for investors
Right Quality (RQ) ü Š The recent clarification over the non- suspension of marketing authorizations of Laurus’
products points at concerns being overdone.
Right Valuation (RV) ü Š Laurus is fortifying its position in the FD and synthesis segments, strengthening its
presence in non- ARV space and growing in new area of biologics. Emerging opportunities
+ Positive = Neutral - Negative from patent expiry of drugs in areas of anti-diabetes and cardiology offer significant
potential for Laurus.
What has changed in 3R MATRIX Š Basis sturdy growth prospects and capacity expansion plans, Laurus has targeted for a
$1bn revenues by FY2023.
Old New
We had an interaction with the management of Laurus Labs Limited’s (Laurus) and the
RS  commentary was positive. The recent stock price correction of ~16% from its highs, was
attributable to the regulatory concern leading to suspension of marketing authorization
RQ  of generic medicines in US and Europe. However, the management has clarified and has
stated that there is no suspension in marketing authorization for its products (except for
RV  one product) and this bodes well for Laurus. Further, the strong growth prospects across
segments coupled with capacity expansion plans provide ample visibility for growth. For
Reco/View Change Q2FY22, Laurus’ performance is expected to be driven by commissioning of new capacities
and sustained demand traction across segment with the earnings trajectory likely to stay
Reco: Buy  intact.
CMP: Rs. 592 Š Concerns overdone: The recent media reports indicated of 18 products of Laurus being
included in the list of suspension of Marketing authorizations by the EMA – Europe as
Price Target: Rs. 800  these products were claimed to be tested in a lab with regulatory concerns. However,
the management has clarified on this news and has stated that just one of its products
á Upgrade  Maintain â Downgrade had been impacted and that has a negligible contribution to the overall sales. The other
products are in the prescription list and would continue to grow, thus pointing at concerns
Company details of being overdone. Therefore, the correction in stock price has been steeper than the
concerns and now provides for a good entry point for investors.
Market cap: Rs. 31,788 cr
Š Q2FY22 earnings trajectory to be intact: During Q1FY22 Laurus has commissioned its 1
52-week high/low: Rs. 724 / 251 bn tablets capacity in the FD (Finished Dosages) segment and the same would add to the
Q2FY22 performance. Also new client additions, growth from existing customers would
NSE volume:
38.9 lakh drive the synthesis segment sales, while commissioning of Laurus Bio’s fermenters (2
(No of shares) fermenters each with 45000 KL capacity) also would also aid the topline growth. Overall
BSE code: 540222 Laurus’ revenues and earnings are expected to stage a double digit y-o-y growth for Q2.
Š Long term driver in place: Laurus is fortifying its position in the FD and synthesis segments,
NSE code: LAURUSLABS strengthening its presence in non- ARV space and growing in new area of biologics. The
Free float: company is building new capacities that would support the robust demand and also propel
39.0 cr growth in the coming years. Emerging opportunities from patent expiry of drugs in areas of
(No of shares) anti-diabetes and cardiology offer significant potential for Laurus.
Our Call
Shareholding (%)
Valuation: Re-iterate Buy with unchanged PT of Rs. 800: Basis the sturdy growth prospects
Promoters 27.3 that are well supported by capacity expansion plans, the management has targeted for a $1bn
revenues by FY2023, thus translating in to a strong growth trajectory. Diversification of revenue
FII 22.8 base and plans to enter new therapeutic areas of cardiology and anti-diabetes would also be
the key growth drivers. At CMP the stock trades at 24.8x and 19x its FY22E and FY23E EPS
DII 4.1 respectively. Further the stock price has corrected by ~16% from its highs and this provides a
good entry point for investors. As the concerns are overdone, we re-iterate Buy recommendation
Others 45.9 on the stock with an unchanged PT of Rs. 800.
Price chart Key Risks
800 Any delay in product approvals or any negative outcome of facility inspection by the USFDA
can affect earnings prospects.
650

500 Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
350
Sales 2831.7 4813.5 6425.6 8043.3 9796.0
200
Operating Profits 564.5 1550.7 2056.2 2654.3 3320.9
Sep-20

Sep-21
May-21
Jan-21

OPM(%) 19.9 32.2 32.0 33.0 33.9

PAT 255.3 983.9 1272.9 1656.2 2176.0
Price performance
EPS 4.8 18.5 23.9 31.1 40.9
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m P/E 123.5 32.0 24.8 19.0 14.5
Absolute -10.1 -12.4 66.8 102.9 EV/EBIDTA 57.6 21.2 15.7 12.2 9.5
Relative to ROE (%) 14.4 37.9 32.9 30.0 28.2
-16.4 -25.5 45.0 45.8
Sensex ROCE (%) 13.2 32.2 32.2 31.7 31.2
Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg
Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

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FD segment on a strong footing; incremental capacities to support growth:

The finished dosages (FD) segment of the company is witnessing improved growth traction and is expected
to be a key growth driver for the company. The FD segment revenues have staged a strong performance
growing from Rs. 54 crore in FY2019 to Rs. 1664 crore in FY2021. Further in Q1FY22 , the FD sales have staged
a 48% y-o-y growth to Rs 521 crore. Going ahead, the strong traction is expected to sustain backed by Laurus’
efforts to expand geographic footprint into the European region through partnerships. During the quarter
ended June 2021, Laurus has validated four additional formulations products and also has commissioned 1
bn tablets capacity and plans to commission additional 4 bn tablets capacity by FY22, in the 2HFY22. Other
key drivers for the formulations business include - expansion of the ARV portfolio and expected traction in
the tendering business. Laurus is also focusing on building a robust ANDA pipeline for the US and has also
simultaneously been filling dossiers in the other key markets such as Europe, Canada and Rest of the World.
As of Q1FY22, Laurus has filed 28 ANDAs in the US and has 66 DMF’s. Going ahead, the company looks to
increase the filling pace in FY22 and in Q1FY22 the company has filled for 5 ANDA’s. Of the 28 ANDA’s filed in
the US,9 are FTF (First to File) and 2 are Para IV’s. This points at a fairly strong product pipeline. Collectively,
strong growth traction from new launches in the US, expansion of geographic footprint to the Europe, well
supported by expanding capacities would drive growth in the formulations segment.
Formulation Sales to stage a sturdy growth
4000 45
42
3500 39 40

3000 35 35

29 30
2500
25
2000
3370 20
1500
2496 15
1000 10
1664
500 825 5
55 2
0 0
FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022E FY2023E
Sales (Rs Cr LHS) % of Sales ( RHS)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Synthesis segment to stage a strong double digit growth:

Laurus’s synthesis business has staged a strong 95% y-o-ygrowth in the quarter ending June 2021, while for
FY2021 the revenues from the segment has staged a growth of 35% y-o-y for FY2021 to Rs. 519 crore. Going
ahead, the growth is expected to sustain supported by client additions and increasing commercialization
of products. On the industry front, the CRAMS industry is expected to grow by a 7% CAGR over 2019-2025
led by increasing costs of R&D, coupled with significant revenue loss due to the impending patent cliff that
has led major pharmaceutical companies globally to outsource a part of their research and manufacturing
activities to low-cost countries like India. India offers significant cost advantages over matured manufacturing
hubs in Europe and North America and has already emerged as one of the leading cost-competitive and
quality manufacturing hubs for many global players including big pharma companies. The domestic CRAMS
market is expected to reach $40 billion by 2030. As of Q1FY22, the total number of projects under the CDMO
division stood at 50 and the commercial supplies are ongoing for 4 products. Laurus has created a subsidiary
for the synthesis business and sees the synthesis business to be a key growth driver for the company.

September 28, 2021 2

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Synthesis Business on a strong growth trajectory

1000 16
900 14 14
14 14
800
12
700 11
600 10
500 8
934
400 779 6
300
519 4
200 385
100 2
0 0
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022E FY2023E
Sales (Rs Cr LHS) % of Sales ( RHS)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

API segment to grow steadily:

The API business constitutes of three sub-segments – ARV APIs (~71% of Fy21 API sales), oncology API’s (10%
of API sales) and other API’s which constitute around 19% of API sales. Laurus is one of the leading suppliers
of ARV - APIs and intermediates and plans to further strengthen its presence in this area by focusing on
Oncology API’s, other API’s and ARV API’s. In the oncology segment, Laurus plans to focus on the high
potent molecules for growth, while in the other APIs it plans to focus on key therapeutic segments such as
anti-diabetic, cardiology, CNS products and in ARV API segment, the company would focus on expanding
the product kitty by introducing second line of products, maintenance of existing product portfolio, launch
of new first-line products – Lamivudine and Dolutegravir, and supply of APIs to EU and North America. The
segment sales grew modestly 5% y-o-y in Q1FY22 to Rs. 549 crore impacted the performance of the other
API sales. Also the ARV API segment sales grew by 23% y-o-y as demand normalization trend was observed.
The demand was strong for the first line API while 2nd line API’s recorded a healthy growth. The onco API
segment sales grew 16% y-o-y. The management expects the blip in the other APIs sales to be a temporary
one and has guided for recovery from Q2FY22. The overall API sales are expected to grow by double digit
CAGR over FY2021-FY2023E.

Sturdy capex plans provide visibility on growth:

Laurus is one of the fastest-growing pharmaceutical companies. One of the key reasons for the consistent
strong performance is the capacity expansion investments / plans being implemented by the company with
an objective to ensure economies of scale and adequate supplies to customers. The company continues
to expand its manufacturing scale across key segments to leverage opportunities, expand portfolio and
reach out to more customers. Recently, Laurus has embarked on an ambitious capacity expansion plan at
an investment of Rs. 1,500-1,700 crore over the next two years. Laurus is also expanding capacities towards
backward integration of intermediates, additional API capacity for existing products and new products.
Overall, a sturdy demand outlook supported by capacity expansion would enable Laurus to expand its
product basket and also enable higher volumes which in turn could drive market share gains going ahead.

September 28, 2021 3

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Financials in charts

Sales Trends (Rs Cr) Operating Profit - PAT Trends

9000 3000
8043 2654
8000
2500
7000 6426 2056

6000 2000
1656
4814 1551
5000 1500 1273
4000 984
2832 1000
3000 2292 565
2069
413 356
2000 500 255
168 94
1000
0
0

FY2022E

FY2023E
FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021
FY2022E

FY2023E
FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021

Operating Profit (Rs Cr) PAT (Rs Cr)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Margin Trends Improving Leverage

35.0 0.8
32.2 32.0 33.0
30.0 0.7 0.7

25.0 0.6
0.6
20.4 20.6 0.5
20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8

15.0 15.5 0.4

0.3
10.0
8.1 9.0 0.2
0.2
5.0
4.1
0.0
FY2022E

FY2023E

0.0
FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021

FY2022E

FY2023E
FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021

OPM(%) PATM(%)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

RoCE Trend (%) RoE Trend (%)

35.0 40.0
32.2 32.2 37.9
31.7
30.0 35.0
32.9
30.0 30.0
25.0
25.0
20.0
20.0
15.0
13.2 15.0 14.4
11.4
10.0 11.3
10.0
7.2
5.0 5.0 6.0

0.0 0.0
FY2022E

FY2023E
FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021
FY2022E

FY2023E
FY2018

FY2019

FY2020

FY2021

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

September 28, 2021 4

 Stock Update
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Outlook and Valuation

n Sector View – Growth momentum to improve:
Indian pharmaceutical companies are better placed to harness opportunities and clock healthy growth going
ahead. Indian companies are among the most competitive ones globally and hold a sizeable market share
in most developed as well as other markets. Moreover, other factors such as easing of pricing pressures
(especially in the US generics market), rise in product approvals and plant resolutions by the USFDA and
strong growth prospects in domestic markets and emerging opportunities in the API space would be key
growth drivers. This would be complemented by the strong capabilities developed by Indian companies
(leading to a shift towards complex molecules, biosimilars) and commissioning of expanded capacities by
select players over the medium term. Collectively, this indicates a strong growth potential going ahead for
pharma companies.
n Company outlook – Robust outlook:
All of Laurus’ businesses have a robust growth outlook backed by improving demand and supported by
capacity expansion plans lined up. The company is enhancing its current portfolio, stepping up R&D activity
and strengthening and expanding manufacturing capabilities. Further, leveraging its strengths in the API
segment, Laurus has successfully forward-integrated into the lucrative formulations space and is now looking
to almost double its formulations capacities so as to cater to surging demand and management is confident
of sustaining the strong growth momentum. Further, over the long term, Laurus is also in the process to
diversify in to non ARVAPIs of cardiology and diabetology and in the process reduce the dependence on
the ARV segment. In addition, the synthesis business is expected to grow strongly in the next two years with
sustained new client additions, growth in existing business and likely commercialization of new products.
The management sees a strong potential in the synthesis business for a positive surprise. Also, the company
has incorporated a new subsidiary company Laurus synthesis to focus on the synthesis business and sees
this company to be self-reliant by FY2023. Laurus Bio is also expected to grow substantially over the next
4-5 years and would make the company a fully integrated player in the pharmaceutical space. Benefits of
operating leverage and a favorable product mix would result in OPM expansion.
n Valuation – Re-iterate Buy with unchanged PT of Rs. 800:
Laurus has charted a growth path that involves fortifying its position in the FD and synthesis segments,
strengthening its presence in the non- ARV space and growing in new area of biologics (through Laurus Bio).
The company is building new capacities that would support robust demand and also propel growth in the
coming years. Emerging opportunities from patent expiry of drugs in areas of anti-diabetes and cardiology
offer significant potential for Laurus and the company has been building capacities which could enable it to
capitalize on the opportunity. Also the recent concerns regarding to suspension of marketing authorizations
for its products have been overdone with the management clarifying on the same. At CMP, the stock trades at
24.8x and 19x its FY22E and FY23E EPS respectively. Strong topline growth prospects, visibility on earnings
and healthy return ratios and low debt-equity are the key positives. Further over the past two months the
stock price has corrected by ~16% and this provides a good entry point for investors. Further as the concerns
are overdone, we re-iterate Buy recommendation on the stock with an unchanged PT of Rs. 800.

September 28, 2021 5

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One-year forward P/E (x) band

70

60

50

40
P/E (x)

30

20

10

0
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21
P/E (x) Avg. P/E (x) Peak P/E (x) Trough P/E (x)
Source: Sharekhan Research

Peer valuation
CMP O/S P/E (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) RoE (%)
MCAP
Particulars (Rs / Shares
(Rs Cr) FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E
Share) (Cr)
Laurus Labs 592.0 53.2 31,788.0 32.0 24.8 19.0 21.2 15.7 12.2 37.9 32.9 30.0
Granules 320 45.3 7,929 14.4 13.4 10.1 9.8 9.0 25.3 21.9 23.7 22.4
Strides Pharma 586 58.6 5261 27.3 87.8 15.5 8.9 12.4 6.8 8.8 2.2 11.1
Sciences
Source: Company, Sharekhan estimates

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About company
Laurus is a leading research-driven pharmaceutical company, working with nine of the world’s top 10 generic
pharmaceutical companies in the world. Laurus sells APIs in 56 countries. The company’s major focus areas
include anti-retroviral, Hepatitis C, and Oncology drugs. Oncology is one of its core competencies, where
it offers a comprehensive range of APIs in this segment. Laurus is continuously extending its portfolio by
focusing on molecules in diabetes, ophthalmology, and cardio-vascular therapy areas. Laurus has four
distinct business units, namely: Generics API, Generics FDF, Ingredients and Synthesis.

Investment theme
Built on strong capabilities in chemical development and manufacturing, Laurus has developed a wide range
of in-house APIs and intermediates. Laurus is one of the world’s leading suppliers of anti-retroviral APIs and
intermediates. The company’s low-cost technologies give it an edge over other players. Leveraging on API cost
advantage for forward integration into generic formulations (FDF) and capitalizing on its leadership position in
APIs (in key areas such as oncology, cardio-vascular, anti-diabetics, and ophthalmology) with foray into other
regulated markets will drive the company’s business over the next couple of years. Moreover, the company
is doubling its capacity to support growth in the formulations business, which points towards healthy growth
going ahead. Overall, in the wake of an expected robust growth outlook, Laurus has embarked up on a
massive capex program for the next two years, which provides ample visibility on growth.

Key Risks
Š Slower-than-expected ramp-up in formulations, API or custom synthesis businesses.
Š Adverse changes in regulatory landscape could impact growth prospects.

Additional Data
Key management personnel
Dr. Satyanarayana Chava Founder and CEO
Mr. V V Ravi Kumar Executive Director and CFO
Dr. Lakshmana Rao C V ED & Head, Quality
Mr. Krishna Chaitanya Chava Head – Synthesis Division
Source: Company Website

Top 10 shareholders
Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%)
1 Ambit Capital 11.7
2 Amansa Holdings Pvt Ltd 6.1
3 Government Pension Global Fund 1.8
4 Vangaurd Group Inc 1.2
5 Blackrock Inc 0.9
6 Norges Bank 0.9
7 HSBC Holdings 0.7
8 Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co 0.7
9 UTI asset Management Co Ltd 0.6
10 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co 0.6
Source: Bloomberg

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

September 28, 2021 7

Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix
Right Sector
Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent
industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable
government policies
Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental
investments by Government/private companies
Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse
government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges
(currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial
institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability.
Right Quality
Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record,
Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and
Good corporate governance.
Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as
natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events
such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw
material price movement turning unfavourable
Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of
key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity
prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating
balance sheet
Right Valuation
Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations
are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion
in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and
Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment.
Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in
valuation multiples.
Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of
roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies
and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical
valuation multiple.
Source: Sharekhan Research
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