INDIAN JOURNAL OF

POWER AND RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT

A JOURNAL DEVOTED TO DEVELOPMENT OF POWER AND WATER RESOURCES IN ASIA
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 PUJA KUMARI
ANNAPURNA PATRA
C. RAMESH
and
AJAI SINGH

Real time flood forecasting in the Godavari

basin at Nashik, Maharsatra, India
In the present study, short term real time flood forecasting by a large number of river systems, experiences seasonal
model is developed for Godavari river at Nashik, Maharstra, floods. An area of more than 40 Mha in India has been
India. SCS-CN method was used to estimate discharge which identified as flood prone. It has been the observed that floods
was taken as input to HEC-RAS model to estimate flood occur almost every year in one part or the other part of the
levels at Godavari river. Forecast lead time was determined country (CWC 1989). For minimizing the losses due to floods,
by using time of concentration of flood from upstream various flood control measures are adopted. Wise application
catchment to the dam and downstream travel time of flood of engineering science has afforded ways of mitigating the
from dam to forecast location. The input to the SCS-CN ravages due to floods and providing reasonable measure of
model is hourly rainfall (real time) as recorded at three protection to life and property (Singh 2012). The flood control
locations such as Alandi, Mahirwani and Nashik. Isochrones measures can be planned either through structural
were developed and lead time for forecast was computed as engineering measures or non-structural measures. It is now
6 h. Forecast level was extracted from flood routing model realized that absolute and permanent protection to all flood
for 6 locations viz., d/s of Gangapur Bridge, Alandi prone areas and for all magnitudes of floods by structural
confluence, d/s of Someswar Bridge, D/s of Holkar Bridge, measures alone is unsustainable and also not viable
Near Ramkund/Gandhi Talab and d/s of Kannamwar Bridge. economically. The real time flood forecasting is one of the
At d/s of Gangapur bridge, there was a maximum flood level most effective non-structural measures for flood management.
as 592.27m at 6th hour and d/s of Kannamwar Bridge has Accurate and timely flood forecasts can provide valuable time
minimum flood level as 589.09m. The developed flood to the people and civil authorities in taking preventive
routing model can be used to manage the flood in measures like evacuation, relief and rehabilitation measures,
downstream (Gangapur dam) by planning the reservoir preparedness for flood fighting by engineering authorities
operation. Forecasted inflow to the dam from upstream etc. and thus mitigating such losses from floods.
catchment can be used for identifying the safety of dam and Flood forecasting can be generally categorized into four
status of reservoir. groups based on the forecast lead time: nowcasting (0-6 hrs),
Keywords: Flood routing, reservoir operation, lead time, short-term (6-48 hrs), medium range (2 to 10 days), and long-
HEC-RAS, SCS-CN, Godavari river, Nashik. range (10 days or more) (de Coning, 2013). Hydrological
forecasting is a key component of early flood warning
1.0 Introduction systems. The selection of the forecast approach usually

F
loods constitute one of the major national calamities depends on the desired lead time and characteristics of the
faced by India almost every year resulting in basin, such as rainfall-runoff response and flood wave travel
substantial loss of life, large scale damage to property, times (Siqueira, 2016). Reliability of forecasts has increased
disruption of community lifelines besides entailing untold in the recent years due to the integration of meteorological
misery to the millions. This is a consequence of the increasing and hydrological modelling capabilities, improvements in data
frequency of heavy rain, changes in upstream land use and collection through satellite observations, and advancements
sometimes increased concentration of population in flood in knowledge and algorithms for analysis and communication
prone areas (Waghmare et al. 2015). India, which is traversed of uncertainties (Jain, et al., 2018). Flood moderation is one of
the important functions of a reservoir. Operation of a flood
Ms. Puja Kumari, Ex-M.Tech student and Mr. Ajai Singh, Associate moderation reservoir aims to moderate the flood flows, by
Professor & Head, Department of Water Engineering and Management, temporarily retaining the flood water and making controlled
Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi, Jharkhand, e-mail: releases within the safe carrying capacity of the downstream
ajai.singh@cuj.ac.in and Ms. Annapurna Patra, Scientist B, e-mail- channels, in order to minimize flood damages.
annapurna.patra@gmail.com and Mr. C. Ramesh, Scientist C, Central
Water and Power Research Station (CWPRS), Pune, India. E-mail- Many models are available for numerical flow simulation
rchokkanhalli@rediffmail.com in the river. Those models are based on the de Saint Venant

INDIAN JOURNAL OF POWER & RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT 187

Equations (SVE) such as HEC-RAS, MIKE 11 and SOBEK. parameters which are more sensitive in estimation of peak of
MIKE 11 is part of a family of software products developed unit hydrographs computed by the GIUH based Clark model.
at the DHI Water & Environment Institute. DHI is a non-profit Ravazzani, et al. (2007) assessed the reliability of an analysis of
research and consultancy foundation with more than 500 a framework for the definition of rainfall thresholds using the
employees based in offices around the world including the distributed hydrological model FEST for Arno river basin
United States. HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center located in Italy. The AMC (antecedent moisture condition)
River Analysis System), developed by U.S. Army Corp of value of the conventional SCS-CN method was employed to
Engineers in 1995 which is a part of the Institute for Water describe the soil moisture initial condition. A detailed
Resources (IWR), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. HEC-RAS investigation of the most recent flood events showed that
is applied to perform 1-D steady and unsteady flow river precise accounting of the watershed wetness based on
hydraulics calculations, sediment transport capacity, uniform analysis of actual soil moisture improved the prediction
flow computations and water temperature analysis. SOBEK is accuracy of flood forecasting systems. Kar et al. (2010)
a general software package developed by WL Delft developed a workable forecasting system for downstream
Hydraulics in the Netherlands jointly with Dutch public catchment of Hirakund dam, Mahanadi river. They considered
institutes and private consultants. It consists of different concurrent flood peaks of 12 years of base and forecasting
modules that are used to simulate particular aspects of the stations with its corresponding travel time for analysis instead
water system: flood forecasting, optimization of drainage of taking the flow time series. Both statistical method and ANN
systems, control of irrigation systems, sewer overflow design, based approach are considered for finding the peak to reach at
groundwater level control, river morphology, salt intrusion delta head with its corresponding travel time. These methods
and surface water quality. do not take into consideration the rainfall and other factors in
HEC-RAS has been used in the present study due to free the intercepted catchment. They concluded that the efficiency
availability and large application in different parts of the world. of either method reduces as the prediction reach is extended.
Numerous case studies have indicated that HEC-RAS can Flood forecast models are developed for Godavari basin, India
easily perform flood level forecasting and sediment transport through a distributed modelling approach using space inputs
(Doherty, 2010, Haghiabi and Zaredehdasht, 2012, Hicks and and flood forecast model improved the lead time by 12 hours
Peacock, 2005, Mehta, et al. 2014, Modak and Nagarnaik, 2017). compared to conventional methods of forecasting (Rao et al.
As a result, it has become the standard tool for flood forecasting 2011). In Indian context, many works are reported on flood
and floodplain delineation and has been employed by many forecast modelling in different river basin (Sruthi, et al. 2013,
water resources engineers and government agencies (Hicks Timbadiya, et al. 2014, Mehta, et al. 2014).
and Peacock, 2005). For this study, HEC-RAS 4.1 was used to Ho and Lee (2015) proposed a flow forecasting system that
develop the hydraulic model for the reach of the Godavari river. integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff
Agarwal et al. (2016) developed a USACE Hydrologic model, and real-time algorithm. This study adopted a grey
Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS 4.1.0) rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly
model to calculate surface water elevations on downstream side rainfall data. The proposed flood forecasting system was
of upper catchment of Dudhana river and also determined applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two
flooding area at different amount of the discharge from dam. in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations
Chang and Hwang (1999) provided a step towards were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow
understanding and evaluated the role for group method of data forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast
handling (GMDH) in the investigation of the complex rainfall- and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three
runoff processes in a heterogeneous watershed in Taiwan. Two watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could
versions of the revised GMDH model were implemented: a assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during
stepwise regression procedure and a recursive formula. Eleven flood events. Huang, et al (2016) developed a real-time flood
typhoon events in the Shen-cei Creek watershed, Taiwan were forecasting system which integrated four parts: (i) a gray-
used to build the model and verify its usefulness. The based rainfall prediction model, (ii) the antecedent
prediction results of the revised GMDH models and the hydrological condition estimation method, (iii) a deterministic
instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model were compared. runoff model, and (iv) a runoff updating algorithm. The
Based on the criteria of forecasting precision and the rate and developed system was applied to the Hsia-Yun watershed in
time of peak error, a better performance was obtained with the Taiwan. The gray theory was performed to predict the rainfall
revised GMDH models. Kumar, et al. (2002) related the intensity in the next 1-3h, which thus enabled the runoff
geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) model to forecast incoming runoff in the next 1-3h. By
derived from geomorphological characteristics of a catchment consulting the real-time feedback flow observation, a runoff
to the parameters of Clark IUH model for deriving its complete updating algorithm was adopted and was helpful in
shape. Sensitivity analysis of the GIUH based Clark model was improving the performance of the simulated hydrographs. The
conducted to identify the geomorphological and other model overall results confirmed that the developed system is

188 NOVEMBER-DECEMBER, 2018

competent to forecast flash floods. Barbetta, et al. (2016) discharges into the Bay of Bengal near Narasapuram in West
applied the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Godavari district of Andhra Pradesh (Nayak and Patil 2016).
Processor (MCP-MT) for predictive uncertainty (PU) Geographical location of Nashik is 20º 01' to 20º 02' N and 73º
estimation in the Godavari river basin, India. The results 30' to 73º 50'E. Nashik city is situated on the banks of river
showed that the PU estimate was useful for finding the Godavari (Fig. 1). Gangapur, Darna, Alandi, Kasyapi and
exceedance probability for a given hydrometric threshold as Gautami-Godavari dams are constructed on river Godavari
function of the forecast time up to 24h, demonstrating the and its tributaries on the upstream of Nasik city (Thakre
potential usefulness for supporting real-time decision-making. 2010). Gangapur dam is the nearest storage dam constructed
Moreover, the expected value provided by MCP-MT yields 15km away from Nasik city at source area in 1965 (Dhonde
better results than the deterministic model predictions, with 2014). The gross storage area of dam is 7600 Mcft. The
higher Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients and lower error on stage maximum height of Gangapur dam is 36.58m above the river
forecasts, both in terms of mean error and standard deviation bed.
and root mean square error. In a recent study, Ogbonna et al. The average annual rainfall in the Nashik district varies
(2017) applied the Flood Routing Models for Flood Mitigation from 500 to 3400 mm and temperature ranges from 12 to 36ºC.
in Orashi river, South-East Nigeria. Three flood routing Winters are fairly cold and temperatures are known to drop
models were comparatively applied including Muskingum down to 2ºC (CWPRS Technical Report 2015). The study area
model, Level pool model and Modified Pul’s model. Though, comprises 38% forests, 36% barren land, 4% water bodies,
they concluded that flood models of the Muskingum method 10% urban and 11% agricultural land. Most of the urban
and Level pool method prediction differs significantly with the settlement is near Ghats of Nashik city. In Nasik district, red
corresponding models of original data sets because of high soils are mainly occurring in north-western portion and black
standard error and thus not suitable for field application in soils in south-eastern parts. The red soils are mostly under
similar rivers. forest and cultivated to millets, whereas, the black soils are
The Godavari river runs from western to southern India cultivated to sorghum and pulses (rainfed), and grape
and is considered to be one of the big river basins in India. (irrigated) (Nair 1995).
With a length of 1465 km, it is the second largest river in India
(only after the Ganges), that runs within the country. Nashik
city is located on the bank of Godavari river in Maharashtra,
India. In the upstream of Nashik, an earthen dam namely
Gangapur dam is constructed between 1954 and 1963 for
hydroelectric and irrigation purposes. Due to deposition of
silt, storage capacity of Gangapur dam has been reduced
(India-WRIS 2013). During the monsoon period, when the
Gangapur dam is full at its maximum reservoir level (MRL) and
still the surplus floods are approaching into the reservoir, the
maximum discharge is released from the Gangapur dam to
avoid the overtopping. This results into floods onto
downstream and causes the disaster in Nashik. The flow
capacity of the Godavari river has been reduced significantly
in Nashik due to rapid urbanizations/industrialization and
severe encroachment, even little discharge in river Godavari
causes flood in Nashik city. In view of these aspects, heavy
floods have been very common feature in Nashik. Thus, the
forecasting of floods in the Upper Godavari river may provide
an effective and reliable flood warning service. Flood
warnings must be provided with an adequate lead time for the
public. In present study, real time flood forecasting model was
developed for Godavari river. Development of isochrones and
optimal reservoir operation are the mainstay of the paper.
2.0 Materials and methods
2.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA
Godavari river originates from Brahmagiri Mountain
(19.56ºN, 73.20ºE) having 920m elevation located at
Triambakeswar in the Nashik district of Maharashtra. It Fig.1 Location of study area

INDIAN JOURNAL OF POWER & RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT 189

2.2 SPATIAL AND NON-SPATIAL DATABASES
Various meteorological and hydrological data and maps
were collected from different sources. Hourly rainfall data of
3 rain gauges namely (1) Alandi (2) Nashik (3) Mahirwani was
collected for the periods of July 3-4, 2015. This particular
period was chosen because of a religious gathering, called
Kumbh Mela, is assembled to take holy and divine bath at
Nashik. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is the main input
for topographic parameter extraction and catchment
delineation. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM)
DEM of 30 m (Fig. 2) resolution was used to extract various
topographic and hydraulic parameters of the basin. Terrain Fig.3 Sub catchment map of study area
pre-processing is a series of steps to derive various
topographic parameters and catchment delineation. These
steps consist of computing the fill sinks, flow direction, flow
accumulation, watershed delineation and watershed polygon
processing. A total of 10 sub catchments were delineated as
shown in Fig.3. Physiographic parameters like catchment area,
slope, drainage density, length of basin and basin relief were
computed after catchment delineation. Land use/land cover
is an important input parameter in hydrological modelling.
Evapotranspiration, interception, and catchment
characteristics are mainly dependent on this input. The land
use/land cover data sets were generated from the digital image
classification of satellite images. The classification was
performed by taking six classes within the entire study area, Fig.4 Land use land cover of study area
namely water body, forest, agriculture, barren land and
urbanization presented in the Fig.4. and constructed channel networks. Two major tasks were
Lead time plays an important role in flood forecasting performed by HEC-RAS. First, reservoir routing was carried
which in turn depend on the forecasted rainfall. Most of the out to route the upstream discharges through reservoir and
rainfall forecasts are daily or 3 hourly totals which are needed channel to route the dam discharge and then downstream
to be discretised on hourly or half hourly basis for flood discharge to river Godavari. Flood levels extracted from HEC-
forecasting for small catchments. The lead time is derived from RAS is then converted into real time using lead time approach.
the time of travel (time of concentration) of flood to issue the Time of concentration is a primary basin parameter that
forecast (CWPRS Technical Report 2015). The SCS-CN (SCS, represents the travel time from the hydraulically furthest point
1972) method of rainfall runoff is used to estimate the in a watershed to the outlet. The accuracy of estimation of
discharges in hourly basis. Rainfall runoff is only the first peak discharge is sensitive to the accuracy of the estimated
step in this study. These discharges are input to HEC-RAS time of concentration (Tc). Many researchers (Kirpich, 1940;
to perform various types of hydraulic calculations for natural Chow, 1959) have developed empiric equations using
experimental and analytic methods in order to estimate the
time of concentration. For the computation of Tc, average of
the three methods was used in the present study. Hourly
rainfall data obtained for three raingauge stations were used
for assigning the appropriate antecedent moisture condition
(AMC) conditions. After the AMC values were assigned,
corresponding curve number values based on AMC
condition, land use and soil type were determined. Very
shallow, well drained clay soils are present in the catchment.
So the soil class was taken as Group C, according to
hydrological soil classification. Runoff depth from all the sub
catchments using SCS-CN method was estimated and
multiplied by the concerned isochrones area to get the
discharge. Lags are given based on the isochrones number
Fig.2 DEM of study area of the catchment. The discharge was used as input to HEC

190 NOVEMBER-DECEMBER, 2018

RAS model for flood routing in the downstream. AMC values the downstream of the Gangapur dam, it is needed to enter
are assigned based on rainfall depth taking 15mm depth of storage area data, inline structure data and bridge data.
cumulative rainfall during past 24 hours as threshold value Channel roughness is indicated by Manning's n-values, and
for saturation. If cumulative rainfall depth is less than 15mm is taken as 0.03 and 0.04. Contraction and expansion
then it is assigned AMC II and if it is greater than 15mm then coefficients are flow dependent and are characteristic of
it will be AMC III. After detailed study, the CN values were abrupt changes in flow direction; these values were taken as
assigned based on (a) Antecedent Moisture Conditions-II, III 0.1 and 0.3, respectively. HEC- RAS modelling for steady flow
(AMC), (b) Hydrologic Soil Group (HSG C), and (e) Land use. needs selection of any of the following boundary conditions
The curve numbers obtained using above parameters for such as known water surface elevation, critical depth, normal
different AMCs. Runoff depth of all catchment was estimated depth and rating curve. In the absence of gauging stations in
using SCS-CN method. For discharge estimation, runoff depth the lower reach of Godavari river, normal depth as the
was multiplied by isochrones area and divided by time. Lags boundary condition was selected and energy grade line slope
were given based on isochrones position in the catchment. was assumed as 0.003, and steady flow analysis was executed.
Isochrones discharges are summed up after giving lags. To compute the reservoir levels or reservoir storage in each
These discharged are used as input file for flood routing time step of the model run, elevation-area curve (EAC) tables
model. were used; and for computing the spillway discharges for the
corresponding reservoir levels, spillway rating curves were
2.3 FLOOD ROUTING
used. In these computations, the interpolation function is
Once discharge from each watershed is calculated, it has used to estimate the dependent variable, namely reservoir
to be routed through reservoir and channel. A flood wave is level, reservoir storage or spillway discharge.
attenuated by friction and storage as it passes through a
reservoir or reach. In reservoir routing, the effect of flood 2.4 HEC-RAS MODEL
wave entering a reservoir is studied. Knowing the volume- HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis
elevation characteristic of the reservoir and the outflow- System) is numerical software for river flow hydraulics
elevation relationship for the spillways and other outlet calculations (Darshan 2014). It was developed by the
structures in the reservoir, the effect of a flood wave entering Hydrologic Engineering Center, a research group for the U.S.
the reservoir was studied to predict the variations of reservoir Army Corp of Engineers (Robert et al. 2012). HEC-RAS is an
elevation and outflow discharge with time. As a flood passes integrated system of software for one-dimensional water
through a reservoir, part of the flood volume goes into storage surface profile computations and is designed for interactive
as the water level in the reservoir is raised, and some is use in multi-tasking, multiuser network environment. It allows
discharged over the spillway. The water level in the reservoir performing one dimensional steady and unsteady flow river
controls the rate of outflow over the spillway. For reservoir hydraulics calculations, sediment transport capacity, uniform
flood routing, the time intervals being considered are flow computations and water temperature analysis. HEC-RAS
generally short. Reservoir evaporation can be ignored, as can was used to perform one dimensional water surface profile
the seepage and supply terms. Assuming for the moment that calculations for steady gradually varied flow in natural or
rainfall on the reservoir can be incorporated along with constructed channels. Subcritical, supercritical, and mixed
reservoir inflow, then during a time step Δt, the mass balance flow regime water surface profiles were calculated. Water
equation is written as: surface profiles are computed from one cross section to the
next by solving the energy equation by the standard step
... (1) method. The flow was subdivided into units for which the
velocity was uniformly distributed. The approach used in
where I1 and I2 are inflows to reservoir at time step 1 and 2. HEC-RAS is to subdivide flow in the overbank areas using
Similarly O1 and O2 are the total outflow from reservoir at time the input cross section n-value break points (locations where
steps 1 and 2. ΔS is change in reservoir storage, which is n-values change) as the basis for subdivision. Conveyance
given by: is calculated within each subdivision from the following form
... (2) of Manning’s equation:
Eqns. (1) and (2) are the simplest forms of the mass
balance. However, in reality, O1 and O2 include discharge over ... (3)
spillway, sluice outflows, flow released through penstocks,
canal releases, etc. from reservoir and other municipal and ... (4)
industrial utilizations from dam. After creating river reach, the
cross-section data are entered to HEC-RAS in Geometric Data where,
Window. As there is a hydraulic structure (Gangapur dam) K = conveyance for subdivision
present in the upstream of the Nashik city and 11 bridges in n = Manning’s roughness coefficient for subdivision

INDIAN JOURNAL OF POWER & RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT 191

A = flow area for subdivision measured along the anticipated path of the center of mass of
R = hydraulic radius for subdivision (area/wetted perimeter) the overbank flow.

Sf = slope of the energy grade line Several types of loss coefficients are utilized by the
programme to evaluate energy losses:
All the incremental conveyances in the overbanks are
summed up to obtain a conveyance for the left overbank and i. Manning’s n values or equivalent roughness “k” values
the right overbank. The main channel conveyance is normally for friction loss,
computed as a single conveyance element. The total ii. Contraction and expansion coefficients to evaluate
conveyance for the cross section is obtained by summing the transition (shock) losses, and
three subdivision conveyances (left, channel, and right). For iii. Bridge and culvert loss coefficients to evaluate losses
the determination of composite or equivalent coefficient of related to weir shape, pier configuration, pressure flow,
roughness (nc), the main channel is divided into N parts, each and entrance and exit conditions.
with a known wetted perimeter Pi and roughness coefficient
ni. Selection of an appropriate value for Manning’s n is very
significant to the accuracy of the computed water surface
2 elevations. The value of Manning’s n is highly variable and
⎡
∑ ( )
⎤3
N
P n1.5 depends on a number of factors including: surface
nc = ⎢⎢ i =1 i i ⎥
⎥ ... (5) roughness; vegetation; channel irregularities; channel
P
⎢⎣ ⎥⎦ alignment; scour and deposition; obstructions; size and
where, shape of the channel; stage and discharge; seasonal
changes; temperature; and suspended material and bedload.
P = wetted perimeter of entire main channel An extensive compilation of n values for streams and
Pi = wetted perimeter of subdivision floodplains can be referred in (Chow 1959).
n = coefficient of roughness for subdivision 2.4.2 Steady flow data and boundary conditions
The computed composite n c was checked for Steady flow data are required to perform a steady water
reasonableness. Contraction and expansion losses in HEC- surface profile calculation. Steady flow data consist of flow
RAS are evaluated by the following equation: regime, boundary conditions and discharge information (peak
flows or flow data from a specific instance in time). Profile
a1V12 a2V22 computations begin at a cross section with known or
hce = C − ... (6)
2g 2g assumed starting conditions and proceed upstream for
subcritical flow or downstream for supercritical flow. The flow
where, C = the contraction or expansion coefficient. It is
regime (subcritical, supercritical, or mixed flow regime) is
assumed that a contraction is occurring whenever the velocity
specified on the steady flow analysis. Subcritical profiles are
head at downstream is greater than the velocity head at
computed and constrained to critical depth or above, and
upstream. Likewise, when the velocity head upstream is
supercritical profiles are constrained to critical depth or below.
greater than the velocity head downstream, it is assumed that
In cases where the flow regime will pass from subcritical to
a flow expansion is occurring.
supercritical or supercritical to subcritical, mixed flow regime
2.4.1 Geometric data mode may be considered. Boundary conditions are necessary
The river system schematic is required for any geometric to establish the starting water surface at the end of the river
data set within the HEC-RAS system. The schematic defines system (upstream and downstream). In a subcritical flow
how the various rivers reaches, storage areas, and 2D flow regime, boundary conditions are only necessary at the
areas are connected, as well as establishing a naming downstream end of the river system. If a supercritical flow
convention for referencing all the other data. The river system regime is calculated, boundary conditions are only necessary
schematic is developed by drawing and connecting the at the upstream end of the river system. For a mixed flow
various hydraulic elements of the system within the geometric regime, boundary conditions shall be specified at all ends of
data editor. The basic geometric data consist of establishing the river system. There are four types of boundary conditions
the connectivity of the river system; cross section data; reach available to the user such as known water surface elevations,
lengths; energy loss coefficients (friction losses, contraction critical depth, normal depth and rating curve. An area which
and expansion losses); stream junction information; storage is like lake in which water can flow into and out of and is
areas; and flow areas. The measured distances between cross connected to the river reach by lateral structure connections
sections are referred to as reach lengths. The reach lengths is known as storage area. In this study, the storage area i.e.
for the left overbank, right overbank and channel are specified Gangapur dam is at the upstream side of Godavari river reach.
on the cross section data editor. Channel reach lengths were The connection consists of gated spillway and a weir. The
measured along the thalweg. Overbank reach lengths were gross storage area of dam is 7600Mcft. The maximum height

192 NOVEMBER-DECEMBER, 2018

of Gangapur dam is 36.58m above the river bed. In this step, TABLE 2: TIME OF CONCENTRATION
the area of reservoir was traced and the data was entered in Catchment Kerby Kirpich California Average
the storage area editor. There are two upstream catchments (hrs) (hrs) (hrs) Tc
Kashyapi and Gautami which falls in Gangapur dam and 9 Kashyapi 4 4 4 4
downstream catchments as shown in Fig.5. Gautami 6 5 6 5
Alandi Nala 5 6 3 5
Jambh Ohol 3 2 1 2
Goshi Nala 3 2 4 3
Nashik Nala 2 1 1 1
Waghari Nala 3 2 4 3
Kapila Nala 2 1 1 1
Nashardi Nala 4 4 9 6
Chikli Nala 2 1 1 2
Fig.5 Schematic of upstream and downstream tributaries of Godavari
river system (Upstream tributaries are 1. Kashyapi, 2. Gautami. The TABLE 3: CN VALUES OF CATCHMENTS BASED ON AMC AND HSG
downstream tributaries are numbered as 1. Alandi, 2. Jamb Ohol, 3.
AMC type AMC-II (CNII) AMC-III (CNIII)
Goshi Nala, 4. Nashik Nala, 5. Waghari Nala, 6. Kapila Nala, 7. L.
Group Nalas, 8. Nasardi Nala, 9. Chikli Nala, 10. R. Group Nalas Discharge Hydrological Hydrological
and 11. R. Group1 Nalas. measuring stations soil group soil group
C C
3.0 Result and discussion
Kashyapi 80 90
3.1 RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELLING Gautami 80 90
The detail of catchment delineated and physiographic Alandi 74 86
factors of each sub catchment are presented in Table 1. Jambhole 72 84
Kashyapi and Gautami are the two larger catchments, Ghoshi 74 86
contributing maximum discharges in river Godavari. Gautami Nashik 72 84
has smaller drainage density which indicates less number of Wagheri 74 86
smaller streams in catchment area and broader hydrograph. Kapila 72 84
Using physical properties of basin such as longest length, Nashardi 74 86
roughness and slope, time of concentration was computed for Chikli 74 86
all the catchments to compute lead time by using Kirpitc L.Group Nalas 74 86
formula, Kerby formula and California Culvert Eqn. Lead time R.Group Nalas 74 86
for forecast was computed as 6 hours which include travel R.G Roup Nalas1 74 86
time of flood from upstream catchment to the dam and
downstream travel time of flood from dam to forecast location. used to estimate hourly runoff from hourly rainfall data of
Isochrones were developed implicitly for giving lags in three rain gauge stations viz., Alandi, Nashik and Mahirwani
catchment response. Time of concentrations calculated by by selecting proper model parameters. Estimated CN values
three formulas is given in Table 2. The SCS-CN model was are illustrated in Table 3.
After assigning CN values, runoff
TABLE 1: PHYSIOGRAPHIC FACTORS depth of all catchment (Gautami,
Catchment Area Length of Total length Relief Drainage Slope Kashyapi, Alandi, Jamohol, Goshi,
(sq.km) basin of all (m) density (m/m) Nashik, Wagheri, Kapila, Chikli,
(km) streams
(km)
Nasardi, Left group nalas, Right
group nalas and Right group nalas-1)
Kashyapi 143.26 24.50 158.73 367.00 1.11 0.01
was estimated using SCS-CN method.
Gautami 211.53 41.97 215.71 660.00 1.02 0.02
For discharge estimation, runoff
Alandi Nala 149.56 24.37 164.05 1646.98 1.10 0.01
depth was multiplied by isochrones
Jambh Ohol 18.59 9.57 25.12 1003.94 1.35 0.02 area and divided by time. Flood
Goshi Nala 15.93 9.59 22.51 82.60 1.41 0.02 hydrographs were generated for all
Nashik Nala 4.77 4.40 5.74 193.57 1.20 0.03 catchments but only for Gautami and
Waghari Nala 26.93 10.88 32.74 78.94 1.22 0.01 Kashapi are shown in Figs.6 and 7.
Kapila Nala 4.92 5.01 6.01 226.38 1.22 0.01 In the first 2-hour, Gautami
Nashard I Nala 93.71 24.86 109.24 132.89 1.17 0.01 catchment was observed to
Chikli Nala 6.81 5.99 10.62 551.18 1.56 0.01 contribute very less discharges (50-

INDIAN JOURNAL OF POWER & RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT 193

 and reaching at a maximum discharge
of 257.026 and 135.71 cumecs for
Kashyapi and Alandi, respectively.
Jambohol and Goshi have zero
discharges in first 2 hours as amount
of rainfall is not meeting the value of
initial abstraction. After 3rd and 4th
hour, there was sudden rise in
hydrograph, reaching at peak value
of 20 cumecs (Jambohol) and 45
cumecs (Goshi). In first four hours,
Nashik was discharging very less
amount (0.81 cumecs) and has a
maximum discharge of 6 cumecs
Fig.6 Flood hydrograph for Gautami sub catchment which is very less due to small
catchment area. Wagheri has a
discharge of 0.9 cumecs up to 3rd
hour, however after third hour,
discharges are varying with rainfall
and reached a maximum discharge of
48.73 cumecs. Kapila is a small
catchment having a maximum
discharge of 8.21 cumecs. Left group
nala is a group of very small nalas
which is contributing to river
Godavari in left side and has no
discharges up to second hour and
maximum discharge of 40.2 cumecs.
Right group nala and Right group1
nala is group of very small nalas
Fig.7 Flood Hydrograph for Kashapi sub catchment which is discharging in right side of
river Godavari and has a maximum
discharge of 116.1 cumecs in 18th
hour. Chikli is a very small catchment
having a maximum discharge of 32.68
cumecs. Nasardi has a maximum
discharge of 167.20 cumecs in 18th
hour. Discharges are gradually rising
with rainfall after 28th hour.
3.2 FLOOD ROUTING AND FORECASTING
Flood hydrographs were used as
input in HEC-RAS model for flood
routing through reservoir and
channel in order to estimate flood
Fig.8 X-Y-Z perspective plot of Godavari river levels at selected location. Once the
hydraulic computations are
70 cumecs) because of contributions of only two isochrones, complete, HEC- RAS, XYZ perspective plot could be viewed
however during 4th-5th hour there was a sudden rise in in true three-dimensional perspectives of the river system and
discharge (260 to 300 cumecs). Gautami has a maximum water surface profiles. XYZ perspective plot and profile plot
discharge of 568.16 cumecs in 19th hour which is highest of Godavari river is presented in Figs.8 and 9. As the hydraulic
contribution in river Godavari as compared to all other structure exist in the system i.e. Gangapur dam, reservoir
catchments (Fig.6). Kashyapi and Alandi have zero discharges operation has also been incorporated to account the system
in first 2 hours because rainfall is less than initial abstraction. mass balance. The advantage of Gangapur dam in improving
Discharges were gradually rising with rainfall from 3rd hour the flood situation in Nashik city has been attempted (storage

194 NOVEMBER-DECEMBER, 2018

INDIAN JOURNAL OF POWER & RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT

TABLE 4: FLOOD MODERATION TRIALS FOR DELAYING FLOOD IN D/S OF GANGAPUR DAM
Elevation Capacity Inflow Intermediate Intermediate Designed Trial Actual Final Final
(m) (m 3 ) volume storage level outflow outflow capacity elevation
(m 3 ) (m 3 ) (m) (cusecs) (cusecs) (MCM) (m)
1 570.00 0.00 2249830.23 23902890.23 608.52 456796.18 1 180000 23722890.23 608.35
2 580.00 1280000.00 2 360000 23542890.23 608.18
3 590.00 6700000.00 2349525.92 26072416.15 610.45 815563.96 1 180000 25892416.15 610.31
4 600.00 14820000.00 2 360000 25712416.15 610.18
5 610.00 25480000.00 3 540000 25532416.15 610.04
6 615.00 32040000.00 4 720000 25352416.15 609.88
2387882.74 28100298.89 612.00 1002818.58 1 180000 27920298.89 611.86
2 360000 27740298.89 611.72
3 540000 27560298.89 611.59
4 720000 27380298.89 611.45
2443924.42 30004223.32 613.45 980639.87 1 180000 29824223.32 613.31
2 360000 29644223.32 613.17
3 540000 29464223.32 613.04
4 720000.00 29284223.32 612.90
plot of water level is shown in Figs.10 and 11. Second trial was done at
discharge from Gangapur dam. The X-Y-Z perspective plot and profile
and optimizing the gate openings. First trial was executed at 50 cumecs
in HEC-RAS model also by changing the discharges from Gangapur dam
Table 4. After performing reservoir operation manually, it was incorporated
(downstream), flood moderation trials have been carried as shown in
and depletion). Thus, before the forecast is issued to the Nashik city
Fig.11 Profile plot of Godavari river at 50 cumecs discharge from Gangapur dam

Fig.10 X-Y-Z perspective plot of Godavari river at 50 cumecs discharge from

Fig.9 Profile plot of Godavari river

Gangapur dam
195
 TABLE 5: FORECASTED FLOOD LEVELS (M) IN GODAVARI RIVER
Ghat locations Current time Forecasted period
7/4/2015 07/04/2015 07/04/2015 07/04/2015 07/04/2015 07/04/2015 07/04/2015
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00
D/s of Gangapur bridge 589.34 589.9 590.44 590.79 591.15 591.67 592.27
Alandi confluence 589.13 589.71 590.28 590.66 591.04 591.58 592.2
D/s of Someswar bridge 589.11 589.69 590.27 590.65 591.03 591.57 592.19
D/s of Holkar bridge 589.1 589.68 590.26 590.64 591.02 591.56 592.18
Near Ramkund/Gandhi Tlb 589.1 589.68 590.26 590.64 591.02 591.56 592.18
D/s of Kannamwar bridge 589.09 589.68 590.25 590.63 591.01 591.56 592.18

system mass balance. Flood forecast

model developed in this study is
capable of giving real time flood levels
at different locations, if real time
rainfall data is available. It has been
estimated that the travel time of flood
from downstream of Gangapur dam to
the Nashik city is about 2 hours and
the translation time of flood responses
due to rainfall from Kashyapi and
Gautami is 4 hours. Forecast for
Godavari river is found to be 6 hours.
The developed flood routing model
can be used to manage the flood in
Fig.12 Forecasted flood levels in Godavari river downstream (Gangapur dam) by
planning the reservoir operation.
100 cumecs discharge from Gangapur dam. It was observed Forecasted inflow to the dam from upstream catchment can
that the levels obtained at various forecast stations before be used for identifying the safety of dam and status of
performing reservoir operation was found 5 to 7m higher than reservoir.
the levels obtained after performing reservoir operation.
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INDIAN JOURNAL OF POWER & RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT 197

Notes and news
PM inaugurates first assembly of the existential threat for all. He emphasized that the International
International Solar Alliance Solar Alliance represents the future of energy scenario the
The Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently inaugurated the world over. Pointing out that the world is witnessing a global
first Assembly of the International Solar Alliance at Vigyan renewable energy revolution, the UN Secretary General hoped
Bhawan. The same event also marked the inauguration of the that the age of fossil fuels will end with a replacement for
second IORA Renewable Energy Ministerial Meeting, and the them. Mr. Guterres said that he would convene a Climate
2nd Global RE-Invest (Renewable Energy Investors' Meet Summit next December to bring climate action to the top of
and Expo). The Secretary General of the United Nations, Mr. international agenda.
Antonio Guterres, was present on the occasion. Speaking on the occasion, Union Minister of External
Addressing the gathering, the Prime Minister said that in Affairs, Ms. Sushma Swaraj said that the International Solar
the last 150 to 200 years, mankind has depended on fossil Alliance is an endearing reality. She pointed out that the goal
fuels for energy needs. He said nature is now indicating that of the three events inaugurated is to promote sustainable
options such as solar, wind and water, offer more sustainable development for a better world.
energy solutions. In this context, he expressed confidence that International Solar Alliance
in future, when people talk of organisations for the welfare of
mankind established in the 21st century, the International International Solar Alliance (ISA), an alliance of 121 solar
Solar Alliance will be at the top of the list. He said this is a resource rich countries lying fully or partially between the
great forum to work towards ensuring climate justice. He said Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. ISA was jointly launched
the International Solar Alliance could replace OPEC as the key by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the then President
global energy supplier in the future. of France, Mr. François Hollande, on November 30, 2015 in
Paris, France on the side-lines of the 21st Conference of
The Prime Minister said that the effect of increased use Parties (CoP 21) to the United Nations Framework
of renewable energy is now visible in India. He added that Convention on Climate Change. The ISA Framework
India is working towards the goals of the Paris Agreement Agreement was opened for signature on 15 November 2016
through an action plan. He said that the target is to generate in Marrakech, Morocco, on the side-lines of CoP-22.
40 per cent of India's total energy requirements in 2030, by
non-fossil fuel based sources. He said India is developing The vision and mission of the International Solar Alliance
with a new self-confidence of “Poverty to Power.” is to provide a dedicated platform for cooperation among
solar resource rich countries that lie completely or partial
The Prime Minister said that besides solar and wind between the Tropics of Capricorn & Cancer, the global
power, India is working on biomass, biofuel and bio-energy. stakeholders, including bilateral and multilateral organizations,
He said efforts are being made to make India's transport corporates, and industry to make a positive contribution to
system clean fuel based. He said that by converting bio-waste assist and help achieve the common goals of increasing the
to biofuel, India is converting a challenge into an opportunity. use of solar energy in meeting energy needs of prospective
He emphasized that if the dream of “One World, One Sun and ISA member countries in a safe, convenient, affordable,
One Grid” is followed, uninterrupted power supply can be equitable and sustainable manner.
ensured.
In conformity with the ISA Framework Agreement, 30
The Prime Minister announced plans to launch a National days after ratification by the 15th country, on December 6,
Energy Storage Mission that will look at manufacturing, 2017, ISA became the first full-fledged treaty based
deployment, technology development and policy framework. international intergovernmental organization headquartered
Addressing the gathering, Secretary General of United in India. Through this initiative, the countries, inter alia,
Nations, Mr. Antonio Guterres said that climate change is an share the collective ambition: (i) to address obstacles that

198 NOVEMBER-DECEMBER, 2018