Last Version (COVID-19)

Modeling, Analysis and Control Strategies of COVID-19
Transmission Dynamics: The case of Ethiopia
Submitted to
Research and Publication Directorate Office
Research and Community Service Vice President Office
Wollo University
Submitted by:
1. Dr. Abdella Arega, Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Science, PI
2. Getnet Bogale, Lecturer, Department of Statistics, College of Natural Science, PI
3. Getahun Gebre, Lecturer, Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health
Science/ Co-I
4. Nigussea Abiyea, Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Science/ Co-I
May, 2020
Dessie
Modeling, Analysis and Control Strategies of COVID-19 Transmission
Dynamics: The case of Ethiopia
No. Name Educational Academic Email Mobile Dept. Specialization

level rank
1. Dr. PhD Ass.Prof. abdella.arega@wu.edu.et 0911347495 Mathematics Modeling
Abdella
Arega
2. Getnet MSc Lecture Getnetbogale145@gmail.com 0924780059 Statistics Bio-Statistics
Bogale
Begashaw
3. Getahun MPh Lecture getahungebre21@gmail.com 0914715992 Health MPh in
Gebre Informatics Health
Bogale Informatics
4. Nigussea MSc Ass.Prof. 0930417303 Mathematics
Abiyea
THEMATICAREA: MODELING
SUB-THEMATIC AREA: MATHEMATICAL MODELING
LOCATION (S): ETHIOPIA, ALL REGIONS
DURATION OF THE PROJECT:

COMMENCEMENT TERMINATION
01/ 10/ 2012 EC 30/ 03/ 2013EC
TOTAL AMOUNT OF GRANT REQUESTED IN BIRR: 199,133.00
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Table of Contents Page No.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 4
1. BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................ 5
1.1 Background Information ..................................................................................................................... 5
1.2 Literature review................................................................................................................................. 8
1.3 Statement of the Problem ................................................................................................................ 11
1.4 Rationale of Study ............................................................................................................................. 12
1.5 Research Questions .......................................................................................................................... 12
2. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY: ................................................................................................................ 13
2.1. General Objective ............................................................................................................................ 13
2.2 Specific Objectives ............................................................................................................................ 13
3. METHODS ............................................................................................................................................ 13
3.1 Data Description ............................................................................................................................... 14
3.1.1 Study Area .................................................................................................................................. 14
3.1.2 Study Population ........................................................................................................................ 16
3.1.3 Source and collection of Data .................................................................................................... 16
3.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................................... 20
3.2.1 Sample Size Determination ........................................................................................................ 20
3.2.2 Eligibility criteria......................................................................................................................... 21
3.2.3 COVID-19 Model Description/ Formulation............................................................................... 21
3.2.4 Model Assumption ..................................................................................................................... 23
3.3 Risks .................................................................................................................................................. 24
4. QUALITY ASSURANCE MECHANISMS: ..................................................................................... 24
5. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS (IF ANY): .................................................................................................. 24
6. EXPECTED DELIVERABLES (OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES):.................................................................... 25
7. BENEFITS AND BENEFICIARIES OF THE PROPOSED STUDY: ................................................................ 25
8. DISSEMINATION PLAN ........................................................................................................................ 25
9. STUDY TEAM-ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES IN UNDERTAKING AND MANAGING THE STUDY ......... 25
10. STUDY WORK PLAN REFLECTING PROPOSED TIME FRAMES AND OUTPUTS/ DELIVERABLES........ 26
11. THE STUDY BUDGET ........................................................................................................................ 27
11.1 EQUIPMENT AND CONSUMABLE .................................................................................................... 27
11.2 PERSONNEL COSTS (Researchers) ................................................................................................... 28
11.3 PERSONNEL COSTS (Labour, data collectors, field management, etc) ........................................... 29
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11.4 TRANSPORT COST: .......................................................................................................................... 29
11.5 BUDGET SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 29
12. REFERRENCES .................................................................................................................................. 30
13. DECLARATION OF APPLICANTS (investigators): .............................................................................. 33
14. QUESTIONNAIRE FOR COVID-19 ..................................................................................................... 34
15. ANNEX: CURRICULUM VITAE ........................................................................................................... 41
15.1 Dr. Abdella Arega ............................................................................................................................ 41
15.2 Getnet B. ......................................................................................................................................... 44
15.3 Getahun G. ...................................................................................................................................... 46
15.4 Nigusea A. ....................................................................................................................................... 49
Mr. NIGUSSIE ABEYE ..................................................................................................................... 49
Assistant Professor (Differential Equations)....................................................................................... 49
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
COVID-19 was emerging at the end of 2019 in China in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei China, and
has since spread globally, resulting in the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 is neither
SARS nor influenza. It is a zoonotic virus that can be transmitted to humans. It is a new virus with
its own characteristics. Citizens in Ethiopia have unique social attachment (work place, religious
culture and holidays, transportation, etc.) are serious risk for transmission of COVID-19.
Worldwide recommendation may not be valuable for Ethiopia. Therefor studying COVID-19 in
Ethiopia aspect is important. There was no any previous study on same topic done about
transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19. So that in this study, the researchers
develop an ordinary differential equation of a mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic
and show the qualitative stability analysis of the model.
The aim of this study is also to calculate duration period and disease COVID-19 outbreak period
and afterward indicating controlling strategies of the disease in Ethiopian aspect.
Keywords: Control Strategies, Transmission Dynamics, Covid-19, Ethiopia, Mathematical

model
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1. BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW
1.1 Background Information
Novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [14]. It is neither SARS nor influenza; rather
it is a zoonotic virus that can be transmitted to humans. COVID-19 is accidental global health
burden especially for developing countries in terms of death and economic cost. The disease was
first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei China, and has since spread globally,
resulting in the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic [7]. The virus is transmitted from infected person
to susceptible human via respiratory system droplet, contact, and fomites. According to CDC, 2020
report infected humans shows disease symptoms like fever, breathlessness, cough, it may take 2–
14 days for a person to notice symptoms after infection, but muscle pain, sputum production,
diarrhea, and sore throat are less common [2, 10].
Mathematical models are widely used to understand and predict the dynamics of human infectious
diseases epidemics like Ebola, SARS and to assess the effectiveness of different disease
management measures such as quarantining of infected individuals who can provide valuable
information for public health policy makers. Some works dealing with the standard compartment
models of disease, such as SEIR (susceptible, Exposed, infected, and recovered), SIS (susceptible,
infected, susceptible) are being widely used to model the dynamics of infectious diseases [27, 28,
29, 30, 32, 33, 37, 38] and particularly, θ- SEIHRD model for the COVID-19 epidemic [10].
COVID-19 infection has four distinct stages [39]. The first stage is importing by test positive
person who have a travel history aboard to virus infected countries the second stage is when the
local transmission of virus from infected persons to susceptible person. The third stage is stage of
virus transmission across community to a person who hasn’t travel history or exposed to infected
person. The fourth stage is stage of the infection where it takes on the form of an epidemic. [22]
While according to the WHO report more than 80% of Covid-19 positive patients can recover,
around 14% get severe disease, causing breathlessness and pneumonia and about 5% critical
disease and the failure of more than one organ 2% will get in fatal death. COVID-19 virus have
four life cycle steps such as; attachment and entry, replicas protein expression, replication and
transcription, and assembly and release [40]. Until the preparation of this article (21 April, 2020),
more than 2,501,920 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in more than two hundred ten
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countries and territories, resulting in over 171,741 deaths but more than 658,956 people have
recovered from this deadly virus [22].
The COVID-19 infection has created an enormous health challenge worldwide. The major
continents affected by this disease were Europe, America and Asia. Until April 28, 2020 Africa
confirmed 33,627 new cases, 10,226 recovered and 1,476 deaths against Covid-19. Ethiopia is the
second most populous nation in Africa, next to Nigeria. According to WHO alert Ethiopia will be
one of the seriously affected countries in Africa. Since first evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic
was reported in Ethiopia in March 14, 2020 in Addis Ababa COVID-19 has claimed the lives of
124 (Apr 27, 2020) [22].
COVID-19 is transmitted from infected human to susceptible human through fluids in the
respiratory system, fomites, physical contact, uncontrolled sneezing and cough such as mucus.
Less aligned emphasis has been given to the COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Citizens have unique social
attachment (greeting, work place, religious culture and holidays, transportation, etc) are serious
risk for transmission of COVID-19 [3, 21, 41].
In order to reduce the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, it is better to supply free awareness
creation schedule and close physical contact. Closing physical contact is controlling strategy help
to block the replication of disease to community. Poor hand hygiene practice, overcrowding, and
close physical contacts like hand shaking contributes for the fast spread of the virus with in very
short period of time. Restricting mobility of individuals within and across borders is believed to
be key in preventing transmission [41].
Worldwide in more than 212 countries, since 31 December 2019 and as of 08 May 2020, 4,029,145
cases of COVID-19 (in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in the
affected countries) have been reported including 276, 473 deaths and 1, 394, 259 recovered
according to the data collected by the ECDC (European Center for Disease Prevention and Control)
center in Sweden. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the epicenter of the
coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is now the USA, where there are already more 79,000 deaths.
The number of infected and dead people is still doubling every three to four days in most countries
following the situation is updated as of May 09, 2020 [26, 34, 35].
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The virus is typically spread from one person to another via respiratory droplets produced during
coughing (Centers for Disease control and Prevention, 2020). It may also be spread from touching
contaminated surfaces and then touching one's face (Centers for Disease control and Prevention,
2020). The virus can live on surfaces up to 72 hours (National Institutes of Health, 2020). The time
from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between two and fourteen days, with an average
of five days (Centers for Disease control and Prevention, 2020 Zhou et al, 2020). The standard
method of diagnosis is by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) from a
nasopharyngeal swab. The infection can also be diagnosed from a combination of symptoms, risk
factors and a chest CT scan showing features of pneumonia (Jin YH et al, 2020).
The recommended measures to prevent infection include frequent hand washing, social distancing
(maintaining physical distance from others), and keeping hands away from the face (Perlman,
2020). The use of sanitized masks is recommended for suspect persons and their caregivers, but
not for the general public, although simple cloth masks may be used by those who desire them
(Tang et al, 2020; Li et al, 2020). There is no vaccine or specific antiviral treatment for COVID-
19. It can be cured by the treatment of symptoms, supportive care, isolation, and experimental
measures.
On February 20, 2020, a young man in the Lombardy region of Italy was admitted with an atypical
pneumonia that later proved to be COVID-19. In the next 24 hours there were 36 more cases, none
of whom had contact with the first patient or with anyone known to have COVID-19. This was the
beginning of one of the largest and most serious clusters of COVID-19 in the world (Livingston,
2020). Despite aggressive effort, the disease continues to spread and the number of affected
patients is rising in Italy and it has also become higher than that of China. Italy has recorded higher
number of cases per day and new deaths per day (>900, highest daily figure in the outbreak so far)
than China (BBC, 2020). Till present date (2020 April 21) the coronavirus COVID-19 has affected
210 countries and territories around the world with a total 2,501,920 cases, 171,741 deaths and
658,956 recovered cases [22].
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019–20 corona virus outbreaks a Public
Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and a pandemic on 11
March 2020. The evidences of local transmission of the disease have been found in many countries
across all six WHO regions and most of the countries have announced an emergency alert
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throughout the countries. In Ethiopia also from the arrival date 13 March 2020 till present (April
20, 2020)114 new cases with 16 recovered and 3 deaths are recorded.
Thus, this paper formulates and analyzes SEIR mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic to
predicates the optimal control strategies for the transmission of COVID-19 disease and simulate
the essential mechanism of the dynamic interaction of the compartment, which is the new
pandemic disease in the world. It also provides an overview of the basic reproduction number
(R19) of COVID-19 model which is representing the average number of new infections and the
transmissibility of a virus from the infectious person population. Furthermore, it proposes a
concept framework and analyzes the spreading and dies out of the disease equilibria of the COVID-
19 model to explain, interpret the results and to relate qualitatively it with the real world.
1.2 Literature review

Viral Etiology:
Coronaviruses are important human and animal pathogens. At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus
was identified as the cause of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, a city in the Hubei Province
of China. It rapidly spread, resulting in an epidemic throughout China, followed by an increasing
number of cases in other countries throughout the world. In February 2020, the World Health
Organization designated the disease COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019. The
virus that causes COVID-19 is designated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2); previously, it was referred to as 2019-nCoV. According to recent research, Covid-
19 is zoonotic, with Chinese horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus sinicus) being the most probable origin
(Chan et al. 2020; Lu et al. 2020) and pangolins as the most likely intermediate host (Meng et al,
2020).
The emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases have become a significant worldwide
problem. Proper understanding of transmission mechanisms of diseases caused by existing and
new pathogens may facilitate devising prevention tools [31].
According to the best of our knowledge, we could hardly find research on mathematical modeling,
analysis and control strategies for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 models. But from
biological and medical perspectives, the reader who wishes to look at the work of infectious disease
modeling may refer to the works in [14, 21, 30, 37, 38, 39, 41] and the reference there in whereas
works dealing with the dynamics of COVID-19 are available in [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,
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13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 40]. From this
background, our study develops a mathematical model, analyze and investigate the optimal control
strategies for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.
1.2.1 Epidemiologic Characteristics and terminologies

Mode of Transmission:
The person-to-person spread of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to occur mainly via respiratory droplets,
resembling the spread of influenza. With droplet transmission, virus released in the respiratory
secretions when a person with infection coughs, sneezes, or talks can infect another person if it
makes direct contact with the mucous membranes. The infection can also occur if a person touches
an infected surface and then touches his or her eyes, nose, or mouth. Droplets typically do not
travel more than six feet (about two meters) and do not linger in the air however, SARS-CoV-2
remained viable in aerosols under experimental conditions for at least three hours (Van et al, 2020).
Source of Transmission:
The study in Wuhan shows that the Covid-19 outbreak was associated with a seafood market that
sold live animals, where most patients had worked or visited and which was subsequently closed
for disinfection (WHO Report, 2020). However, as the outbreak progressed, person-to-person
spread became the main mode of transmission. Although patients with symptomatic COVID-19
have been the main source of transmission, recent study suggests that asymptomatic patients and
patients in their incubation period are also carriers of SARS-CoV-2 (Chan et al. 2020; Rothe et al.
2020). This epidemiologic feature of COVID-19 has made its control extremely challenging, as it
is difficult to identify and quarantine these patients in time, which can result in an accumulation
of SARS-CoV-2 in communities (The Chinese Preventive Medicine Association 2020) (Meng1 et
al, 2020).
Incubation period: The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to be within 14 days
following exposure, with most cases occurring approximately four to five days after exposure (Li
et al, 2020; Chan et al, 2020). In a study of 1099 patients with confirmed symptomatic COVID-
19, the median incubation period was four days (interquartile range two to seven days) (Guan et
al, 2020).
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People at High Risk of Infection: Individuals of any age can acquire Covid-19 infection, although
adults of middle age and older are most commonly affected. In study conducted with hospitalized
patients with confirmed COVID-19, the median age ranged from 49 to 56 years (Huang et al, 2020;
Wang et al, 2020). In a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention that
included approximately 44,500 confirmed infections, 87 percent of patients were between 30 and
79 years old (Wu et al, 2020). Older age was also associated with increased mortality, with a case
fatality rate of 8 and 15 percent among those aged 70 to 79 years and 80 years or older, respectively.
The findings from China shows that mortality was highest among older individuals, with 80
percent of deaths occurring in those aged ≥65 years.
Clinical manifestations
Initial presentation: Pneumonia appears to be the most frequent serious manifestation of
infection, characterized primarily by fever, cough, dyspnea, and bilateral infiltrates on chest
imaging (Guan et al, 2020). There are no specific clinical features that can yet reliably distinguish
COVID-19 from other viral respiratory infections.
In a study describing 138 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, the most common
clinical features at the onset of illness were (Wang et al, 2020):
 Fever in 99 percent
 Fatigue in 70 percent
 Dry cough in 59 percent
 Anorexia in 40 percent
 Myalgias in 35 percent
 Dyspnea in 31 percent
 Sputum production in 27 percent
Management:
Site of care
Home care: Home management is appropriate for patients with mild infection who can be
adequately isolated in the outpatient setting. Management of such patients should focus on
prevention of transmission to others. Outpatients with COVID-19 should stay at home and try to
separate themselves from other people and animals in the household. They should wear a facemask
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when in the same room (or vehicle) as other people and when presenting to health care settings.
Disinfection of frequently touched surfaces is also important. The optimal duration of home
isolation is uncertain.
Hospital care: Some patients with suspected or documented COVID-19 should be treated in the
hospital. Management of such patients consists of ensuring appropriate infection control and
supportive care. Patients with severe disease often need oxygenation support. Symptomatic
patients should also be asked about recent travel or potential COVID-19 exposure in the prior 14
days to determine the need for evaluation for COVID-19.
1.3 Statement of the Problem

COVID-19 is a zoonotic virus. It is an animal virus that can be transmitted to humans. COVID-19
is not SARS and it is not influenza. It is a new virus with its own characteristics. The COVID-19
virus is unique among human coronaviruses which has capacity of high transmissibility,
substantial fatal deaths in some high-risk groups, and ability to cause huge societal and economic
disruption in the nation.
In 20 February 2020, a cumulative total of 75,465 COVID-19 cases were reported in China (China-
WHO Joint Mission, 2020). Among 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases reported as of 20 February
2020, the median age is 51 years (range 2 days-100 years old) with the majority of cases (77.8%)
aged between 30–69 years. Among reported cases, 51.1% are male, 77.0% are from Hubei and
21.6% are farmers or laborers by occupation (China-WHO Joint Mission, 2020). Individuals who
are at highest risk for severe disease and death include people aged over 60 years and those with
underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory
disease and cancer. Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild with approximately
2.4% of the total reported cases reported amongst individuals aged less than 19 years. Mortality
increases with age, with the highest mortality among people over 80 years of age.
A study done in Shenzhen City of China, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842(100%) were
traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%)
were found to be infected with COVID-19 [14]. As COVID-19 is a newly identified pathogen,
there is no known pre-existing immunity in humans. Based on the epidemiologic characteristics
and the scenario of increasing Covid-19 infected patients throughout the world so far, everyone is
assumed to be susceptible, although there may be risk factors increasing susceptibility to infection.
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Since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, there have been extensive attempts to better understand
the virus and the disease in China. It is remarkable how much transmission about a new virus has
been gained in such a short time. However, as with all new diseases, and only 7 weeks after this
outbreak began, key transmission dynamics remain. The people are unknown about the source of
infection, pathogenesis and virulence of the virus, transmissibility, risk factors for infection and
disease progression, diagnostics, clinical management of severe and critically ill patients, and the
effectiveness of prevention and control measures. The timely filling of these transmission
dynamics is necessary to keep oneself safe and away from the disease and to enhance control
strategies.
1.4 Rationale of Study

The COVID-19 virus is unique among human coronaviruses since it has high transmissibility,
uncontrollable fatal deaths in high-risk age groups, and has ability to cause huge social disharmony
and economic loss. The present scenario of increasing Covid-19 patients and number of deaths per
day shows that the global population seems to be susceptible to this virus. As the animal origin of
the COVID-19 virus is unknown at present, the risk of reintroduction into previously infected areas
is also high.
This study helps to assess the mathematical modeling and analysis of the transmission dynamics
and control strategies towards the Covid-19 disease. Additionally, it finds out the epidemic
spreading rate of the transmission dynamics and control strategies among the people regarding the
Covid-19 and the misconceptions and superstitious beliefs prevailing in the society about it. This
study will also provide descriptive data of mathematical modeling which may be useful for the
concerned authority and planning institutions while preparing plans and programs to tackle the
Covid-19 disease. Also, after this study people will be aware of the adopting healthy lifestyles and
can manage and prevent complications.
1.5 Research Questions

Generally, this study will be designed to answer the following research questions:
 How does the transmission pattern of Covid-19 disease look like over time, till 30st
September 2020?
 What are the optimal control strategies of COVID-19 for Ethiopia?
 To what extent do other health problems reinforce death by Covid-19?
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 To what extent does the virus spread out or dies?
 How does the epidemic of the disease interpret according to the basic reproduction number
of COVID-19?
 To what extent do epidemics reinforce public panic?
2. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:

2.1. General Objective
The main goal of this proposal is to develop a mathematical modeling, analysis and the optimal
control strategies for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, which is the new pandemic
disease in the world, particularly in Ethiopia.
2.2 Specific Objectives

1. To formulate SEIR epidemiological model for COVID-19.
2. To empirically investigate the protective behavior of the community toward covid-19.
3. To analyze the model according to the basic reproductive number.
4. To show the stability of the epidemic equilibrium and its spreading rate of the model and
recommend for the responsible body.
5. To evaluate the prevention measures followed by the people and government.
6. To give basic concepts to researchers who could further study on it.
3. METHODS
Data is extracted from verified sources such as Federal Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Health
(MOH), World Health Organization (WHO) and a website authorized by the government of
Ethiopia. The website and office of MOH reported confirmed COVID-19 cases, as well as
recovered and deaths for affected regions in the country.
This research proposal formulates its descriptions as compartmental models, with the population
under study being divided into Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartments
and with assumptions about the nature and time rate of transfer from one compartment to another.
Qualitative method and descriptive cross sectional research design will be used to explain and
interpret the analysis results.
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3.1 Data Description
3.1.1 Study Area
The COVID-19 epidemic has impact of both social and economic. It remains one of the leading
causes of mortality around the world. Nigeria confirms first case in Sub-Saharan Africa Jan 28,
2020 and the disease has been spread throughout the continent including Ethiopia. Ethiopia shares
land borders with 5 countries (attacked by COVID-19) Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and
Kenya.
For the last two months since the confirmation of the Covid-19 in Ethiopia, youths (aged 15-24)
had been more vulnerable/ exposed than others in the community.
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Figure 1: Distribution of Confirmed Cases of Covid-19 by Age, 13 May, 2020
As such, like with age, the prevalence of Covid-19 has a wide range of variability across
geographical regions in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa stands at a staggering (186) 62%, which places the
city on top of all regions. This is followed by Somali region (40) 13%, and Afar region (21) 7%.
Table 1: Distribution of Confirmed Cases of Covid-19 by Region, May, 2020
Region Total Cases Total Death

N %
Addis Ababa 186 62 5
Somali 40 13 0
Afar 21 7 0
Oromia 19 6 0
Amhara 11 4 0
Tigray 11 4 0
SNNPR 5 2 0
Dire Dawa 5 2 0
Benshangul Gumz 2 1 0
Total 300 100 5
The data used in this study is obtained from COVID-19 Referral Hospitals, Quarantine case unit.
COVID-19 Referral Hospitals are found in almost all regional level of Ethiopia. Ethiopia covers
1,000,000 square kilometers of land and 104,300 square kilometers of water, making it the 27th
largest nation in the world with a total area of 1,104,300 square kilometers. Ethiopia is a Federal
Democratic Republic composed of 10 National Regional states: namely Tigray, Afar, Sidama,
Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Benishangul-Gumuz, Southern Nations Nationalities and People Region
(SNNPR), Gambella and Harari, and two Administrative states (Addis Ababa City administration
and Dire Dawa). The population of Ethiopia is 109,224,559 and the nation has a density of 94
people per square kilometer.
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3.1.2 Study Population
All COVID-19 positive patients are illegible (fulfill inclusive criteria) for this study. During the
data were recorded from follow-up charts it is expected that ID were given to each individual to
make it easy to identify individual next visit profiles. To be official and to get permission for
accessing this data, formal letter was taken from Wollo University and may also from Health
Minister of Ethiopia. The study sample will be selected by using stratified random sampling
technique. All susceptible groups in the whole Ethiopia including both male and female will be
target population from the starting day of data collection up to its completion (a minimum of two
months).
3.1.3 Source and collection of Data

This study is undergoing retrospective secondary data collected both from Covid-19 database and
the medical chart of Covid-19 positive patients. The patients Covid-19 database and medical chart
includes the patient intake forms, Follow-up cards and Follow-up records which are adopted by
Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) to be uniformly used by Covid-19 clinics to
early identify and document laboratory/ clinical and epidemiological variables. The database is
on establishment as it is known from ICT experts. Part of the data was also collected from the
Covid-19 data base, and it was collected by the Covid-19 database ICT experts, and the manually
entered data was collected by Covid-19 Nurse and Card Clerk in the Covid-19 clinic working
together. The data was recorded in a list format by taking all the necessary variables.
We use the following 46 laboratory centers and other hospitals related to COVID-19 with the
format to collect data for our research.
Region Laboratory center No of patient No patient Number of death

with city tested positive recovered
Male Female Male Female Male Female
AHRI
A EPHI
D Addis Ababa
D health research
I and emergency
S management
center
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A International
B clinical
A laboratories
B Ethiopia
A biotechnological
laboratories
ALERT
Black lion
Hospital
AASTU
Addis Ababa
University, 4 kilo
campus
Armed force
hospital
Total
Oromia
region
Sebeta NAHDIC
Adama Adama public
health research
and referral
laboratory
Haramaya Haramaya
University
Assela Arsi University
Jimma Jimma University
Neqemte Neqemte RL
Neqemte Wollega
University
Harar Harari RL
Bishoftu AU PANVAC
Ambo Ambo hospital
Shashemene Shashemene
hospital
Metu Metu Karl
hospital
Robe/Goba Medewolabu
University
NVI
Yabello, Yabello regional
Borena veterinary
laboratory
Total
Amhara
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Bahir Dar Amhara public
health institute
Dessie Amhara public
health institute
Dessie Wollo University
Woldeya Woldeia
University
Debre brhan Debre brhan
University
Woldeya Woldeya hospital
Debre tabour Debre tabour
University
Injibara Injibara
University
Bahir Dar Tibebe Gihion
specialized
hospital
Gonder Gondar
University
Debremarkos Debremarkos
hospital
Total
Tigray region
Mekele Tigray health
institute
Aksum Aksum St. Marya
hospital
Total
SNNPR region
Wolaita soda Wolaita Sodo
University
Hawassa SNNPR public
health research
Arbaminch Arbaminch
University
hospital
Hossana Wachamo
university
Total
Gambella region
Gambella Gambella RL
Total
Afar region
Semera Afar RL
Total
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Benishangul- Gunuz
Assosa Benishangul-
Gunuz RL
Somali region
Jigjiga Jigjiga University
hospital
Total
Summary
Age <05 05 -14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 >or=55
Male
Female
Total
As of May 28, from the arrival date 13 March 2020, 831 total confirmed cases, 7 deaths and 191
recovered cases have been reported in Ethiopia. The Ministry of Health also disclosed that a total
of 96,566 people had been tested to date with COVID-19 [42].
The following table shows the date, the total number laboratory conducted cases over 24 hours,
new confirmed cases who are positive with COVID-19 within 24 hours, total recovered and the
number of deaths of May (1-28), 2020 respectively as shown below [21, 26, 42, 43].
Table 2: Distribution of total tested, confirmed positive cases, recovered and deaths of Covid-19 in Ethiopia, May, 2020
Date Tested within 24 hours New confirmed cases Tested positive Total recovered Deaths
1/5/20 900 2 133 66 4
3/5/20 1,560 2 135 75 4
6/5/20 1,300 17 152 91 4
7/5/20 1,843 7 187 93 4
8/5/20 1,861 16 194 95 5
9/5/20 1,950 29 210 97 5
10/5/20 2,171 11 239 99 5
11/5/20 1,764 11 250 105 5
12/5/20 2,424 2 261 106 5
13/5/20 2,650 2 263 108 5
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14/5/20 3,580 9 272 108 5
15/5/20 3,707 15 287 112 4
16/5/20 4,044 19 306 113 4
17/5/30 4,225 11 317 113 5
18/5/20 1,775 35 352 116 5
19/5/20 3,232 24 389 120 5
20/5/20 3,460 9 398 122 5
21/5/20 3,579 30 429 123 5
22/5/20 3,747 4 433 128 5
23/5/20 3,757 61 494 151 5
24/5/20 4,048 88 582 152 5
25/5/20 2,844 73 655 159 6
26/5/20 3,410 46 701 167 6
27/5/20 4,352 30 731 181 6
28/5/20 4,950 100 831 191 7
Total 96,566 831 191 7
3.2 Methodology
The study will be used quantitative study method (infectious disease modeling with mathematical
approach) and descriptive cross sectional research design will be used to assess the transmission
dynamics and controlling strategies regarding Covid-19. Analysis will be done using deSolve
package in R and SAS and Matlab.
3.2.1 Sample Size Determination

In mathematical model/ infectious disease modeling all infected persons taken as samples. This is
because the model doesn’t consider random error or probability. In relative, statistical model
sample size can be determined using a formal of random disturbance (error). Therefore,
A. Sample size determination for infection (transmission dynamics): in our study total
numbers of all infected individuals in Ethiopia until 21/ 06/ 2020 (daily progress) are
considered as sample.
B. Sample size determination for health officers (controlling strategies): the study needs to
consider at least 10% of the total infected person. For example: if there are 4000 infected
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individuals recorded, 10*4000/100 = 400 health officers and those recovered cases are
surveyed for study.
In related, the total sample size = 4000 + 400 = 4400.
It is also categorized region wise as follows.
Region Number of respondents Total

Amhara region 87
Oromia region 80
Addis Ababa 150
SNNPR 35 400
Tigray 18
Afar 10
Benshangul Gumz 5
Somalia region 10
Gambella region 5
3.2.2 Eligibility criteria

Inclusion criteria
All Covid-19 infected person and live in Ethiopia (both foreigners and Ethiopians but infected in
Ethiopia), health officers that currently working towards Covid-19 in health centers of Ethiopia
(treating infecting individuals in Covid-19 hospitals and quarantine area, isolation of patients,
clinical trial, medication etc).
Exclusion criteria
All infected individuals out of Ethiopia, uninfected but susceptible individuals, health officers
working in out of Covid-19 infection.
3.2.3 COVID-19 Model Description/ Formulation

The model of this proposal interest is an SEIR model describing the transmission dynamics of
COVID-19 pandemic where S, E, I and R represent the susceptible, exposed, infectious and
recovered subpopulation respectively. It is assumed that at any time t, new recruits enter the
susceptible class at a constant rate Λ.
Where,
Susceptible (denoted by S): The person is not infected by the disease pathogen.
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Exposed (denoted by E): The person is in the incubation period after being infected by the disease
pathogen, and has no visible clinical signs. The individual could infect other people but with a
lower probability than people in the infectious compartments. After the incubation period, the
person passes to the Infectious Compartment I.
Infectious (denoted by I): After the incubation period, it is the first compartment of the infectious
period, where nobody is expected to be detected yet. The person has finished the incubation period,
may infect other people and starts developing clinical signs. And we include some of the person
dead by COVID-19 who has not survived the disease in this compartment.
The last one is recovered after being previously detected as exposed and infectious (denoted by
R): The person was previously detected as infectious, survived the disease, is no longer infectious
and has developed a natural immunity to the virus. When a person enters this compartment he/she
remains in hospital for a convalescence period of 14 days (average).
The following Figure 2: shows the flow diagram compartment of COVID-19 transmission
dynamics.
Figure 2: Flow Diagram of COVID-19 Model
From the epidemiological point of view and flow diagram of COVID-19 in figure 1 shown above,
the researchers formulate the COVID-19 pandemic SEIR compartment model as follows:
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3.2.4 Model Assumption
The main assumptions of SEIR model in equation 1 are as follows:
 The SEIR model assumes that the total number of populations is not fixed, there is births,
death, or introduction new individuals. From equation above, the population N(t) is
constant in any time t:
S(t) + E(t) + I(t) + R(t) = N(t) for any t ≥ 0.
 Incorporating exposed individuals who transmits the virus during the incubation period
even if they do not show visible clinical signs Homogeneous mixing
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 SEIR model assumes that the latent and infectious times of the pathogen are exponentially
distributed.
 Equal susceptibility for every individual.
 Contact is the main person to person transmission of the virus which occurs via infectious
respiratory droplets.
3.3 Risks
 Lack of fund available in time.
 Lack of getting complete clinical data of Covid-19 positive patients in time from each
service center.
 Exaggerated infection and Governmental emergence policy may partially affect data
collectors and/ or researchers.
4. QUALITY ASSURANCE MECHANISMS:

 Reliability is maintained by ICT expert/ data clerk.
 Strong emphasis was given to make data frame and guidelines of Golden standard about
Covid-19 database.
 Testing and retesting of the materials will be done prior during data collection.
 Cross checking was done in order to reduce the error.
 Clear and simple data frame are prepared according to the transmission dynamics of the
patients.
 Making data comparison with Worldometer daily report.
5. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS (IF ANY):

Ethical clearance will be obtained from the Wollo University, college of Natural science,
department of statistics, research and ethical committee. Official permission will be obtained from
South Wollo Zone, Amhara Region, and Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) to the respective
Covid-19 service area and city administrations. Verbal consents will be obtained from each service
centers after clear explanation about the study: its purposes, advantages. The confidentiality of the
information will be maintained throughout by excluding names and keeping their privacy during
the data collection.
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6. EXPECTED DELIVERABLES (OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES):
 Inspecting and directing the effective controlling strategies towards infection.
 Assessing the prevention measures (controlling strategies) followed by the people
 Rate of infected, recovery and death of COVID-19 positive patients will be assessed.
 Knowledge, Attitude and Practice towards Covid-19 Preventive Measure
 Assessing positive impact of washing and sanitary project
 Mechanisms of Controlling Covid-19
 Transmission Dynamics of Covid-19
 Reforming the command post team
 Policy maker and/ predicting economic crisis
7. BENEFITS AND BENEFICIARIES OF THE PROPOSED STUDY:

• The findings of the study might be helpful in identifying the transmission and optimal
control strategies dynamics of Covid-19 among communities.
• The findings of the study might be helpful to future researchers and health stakeholders.
• The outcomes of this study will help the Ethiopia Minister of Health and Non-
Government Organization’s to establish policies, programs and optimal plans for
controlling the disease of COVID-19
• Lastly, the policy makers will be benefitted from the study findings.
8. DISSEMINATION PLAN
The finding of this study will be presented to Wollo university communities. It also be present to
Ministry of science and higher education, Ministry of health, Amhara regional health bureau,
South Wollo administration, South Wollo health offices, forum, symposium, seminar, annual
report, stakeholders and many others. Finally, efforts will be made to publish it on internationally
reputable journals.
9. STUDY TEAM-ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES IN UNDERTAKING AND

MANAGING THE STUDY
Table 2: Analyzing and Reporting of Research Results
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Evaluation Who will be To whom will Who will do When will results Who will make
responsible for the reports be presentations? be presented? Decisions based
producing the presented? on results?
reports?
Initial meeting of Mr. Getnet B. Research Team Dr. Abdella Meet before the Research team
Evaluators project begins and and supervisors
Monthly thereafter
Pilot survey Dr. Abdella Research Team Mr. Getnet B. Conduct pilot Research team
survey before and and supervisors
scrutinize findings
Training Dr. Abdella Research Team, Mr. Getnet B. Delivering training Research team
data experts,
before and data and supervisors
report writers
collection
Meta-analysis Mr. Getnet B. Research Team Delivering training Research team
before and data and supervisors
research
Data entry , Experts/ and Research Team Doing analysis Research Team
and Internal and and Internal and
cleaning, analysis partially by
External External
And report research team Evaluator
Evaluator
writing
Discuss Supervisors Research Team Research Team Finalizing and Research team/
MOH
recommendations/ and RCS and RCS prepare for action
local authorities
plan of action plan
10. STUDY WORK PLAN REFLECTING PROPOSED TIME FRAMES AND OUTPUTS/
DELIVERABLES
Table 3: Calendar of Operation
S.N Activities Person Assigned APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
1. Site Selection Research team 
2. Literature Review Research team 
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3. Questionnaire Preparation Research team  
4. Proposal Preparation Research team  
5. Proposal Presentation & Submission Research team 
6. Train research assistants and pilot Principal invest. And 
survey
research team
7. Data Collection Research team  
8. Data entry Hire one statistician  
9. Data cleaning and preliminary Principal invest. and 
analysis
statistician
10. Data analysis Principal invest. and 
statistician
11. Report writing Research team 
12. Summarizing and preparation of final Research team 
drafts
13. Discuss recommendations/ plan of Research team/ MOH 
action local authorities
14. Submission of final draft Research team 

15. Presentation and dissemination Research team/ Policy 
maker MOH
16. Article preparation for publication Research team 
11. THE STUDY BUDGET

The researchers request a total of 199,133.00 Eth. Birr/ to undertake the study described above.
11.1 EQUIPMENT AND CONSUMABLE

Table 4: EQUIPMENT AND CONSUMABLE
No Item Unit Number/ Amount Total Unit price in Birr Total price in Birr
1. Alcohol based Sanitizers Litters 15 255 3825.00
2. Soaps Pcs 50 14 700.00

3. Mask Pcs 450 20 9,000.00
4. Glove Package 8 150 1,200.00
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5. Internet Modem Pcs 3 1349 4047.00
6. Internet Package Pcs 3 2,000 6000.00
7. Mobile Card Pcs 72 100 7200.00
8. Hard Disk Pcs 3 2800 8400.00
9. Flesh Pcs 5 350 1750.00
10. CD-ROM Pcs 4 30 120.00
11. Copy (total pages) page 500 2 1,000.00
12. Pens Pcs 54 10 540.00
13. Paper package 2 450 900.00
14. Binding Pcs 15 20 300.00
15. Note book Pcs 4 50 200.00
16. Drink water Pcs 300 11.50 3,450.00
Sub-Total 48,632.00
11.2 PERSONNEL COSTS (Researchers)

Table 5: PERSONNEL COSTS (Researchers)
No Type of activity Unit Total Number/ Amount Total Unit price in Total price in
Birr Birr
1. Consultant/ External Science Pcs 4 7500.00 30,000

Advisors
2. Training Module Preparation Pcs 4 2500.00 10,000
3. Policy maker MOH Pcs 4 2500.00 10,000
4. Internal Coordinator Pcs 4 2500.00 10,000

(delegated by University)
Sub-Total 60,000.00
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11.3 PERSONNEL COSTS (Labour, data collectors, field management, etc)
Table 6: PERSONNEL COSTS (Labour, data collectors, field management, etc)
No Type of activity Unit Total Number/ Unit price in Total price in

Birr Birr
Amount Total
1. Supervisors (External Coordinator) Pcs 12 1493 17,916.00
2. Data clerk Pcs 12 1242 14,904.00
3. Data cleaner Pcs 6 1106 6,636.00
4. Data analyst Pcs 17 1109 18,853.00
5. Report Writer Pcs 6 965 5,790.00
6. Editor Pcs 6 754 4,524.00
Sub-Total 68,623.00
11.4 TRANSPORT COST:

Table 7: TRANSPORT COST:
No Budget line Expenditure
Unit Quantity Unit cost Total cost
1. Bus Ticket Pcs 24 468 11,232.00
2. Taxi Pcs 150 15 2,250.00
3. Air Plane Tickets Pcs 3 2,500 7,500.00
4. Meal/ Water Pcs 112 8 896.00
Sub total 21,878.00
11.5 BUDGET SUMMARY

Table 8: BUDGET SUMMARY
No. Budget Item Description Total cost
1. Equipment and Consumable 48,632.00
2. Personnel Costs 60,000.00
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3. Personnel Costs (labour, data collectors, …) 68,623.00
4. Transport Cost 21,878.00
TOTAL COST (In Birr) 199,133.00
12. REFERRENCES
[1]. BBC News, (2020). Coronavirus: More than 900 deaths in a day in Italy Available at:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52067673 Accessed on: 2020 march 29
[2]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of
Patients with Confirmed 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection, Updated February
12,2020.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-
anagementpatients.html (Accessed on March 26, 2020).
[3]. Chan JF, Yuan S, Kok KH, et al. (2020). A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the
2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster.
Lancet 2020; 395:514.
[4]. Edward Livingston, (2020). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy, JAMA Info
graphic Available at: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763401 Accessed
on: 2020 March 25.
[5]. Guan WJ, Ni ZY, Hu Y, et al. (2020). Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019
in China. N Engl J Med 2020.
[6]. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel
coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020; 395:497.
[7]. Hui, D. S.; I. Azhar E.; Madani, T. A.; Ntoumi, F.; Kock, R.; Dar, O.; Ippolito, G.; Mchugh,
T. D.; Memish, Z. A.; Drosten, Christian; Zumla, A.; Petersen, E. (February 2020). "The
continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health—The latest
2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China". Int J Infect Dis. 91: 264– 66.
doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.009. PMID 31953166
[8]. Jin YH, Cai L, Cheng ZS, Cheng H, Deng T, Fan YP, et al. (February 2020). "A rapid advice
guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected
pneumonia (standard version)". Military Medical Research. 7 (1): 4. doi:10.1186/s40779-
020-0233-6. PMC 7003341. PMID 32029004
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[9]. L. Meng, F. Hua, and Z. Bian, (2020). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Emerging and
Future Challenges for Dental and Oral Medicine, Journal of Dental Research, 2020
[10]. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. (2020). Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of
Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med 2020.
[11]. Li Z, Yi Y, Luo X, et al. (2020). Development and Clinical Application of A Rapid IgM-
IgG Combined Antibody Test for SARS-CoV-2 Infection Diagnosis. J Med Virol 2020.
[12]. National Institutes of Health, 2020. New coronavirus stables for hours on surfaces, 17
March 2020. Retrieved 25 March 2020.
[13]. Perlman S. (2020). Another Decade, Another Coronavirus. N Engl J Med 2020; 382:760.
[14]. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-2019).
February 16-24, 2020. http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-
jointmission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf (Accessed on March 25, 2020).
[15]. Symptoms of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)". www.cdc.gov. 10 February 2020.
Retrieved 25 March 2020.
[16]. Tang A, Tong ZD, Wang HL, et al. (2020). Detection of Novel Coronavirus by RT-PCR
in Stool Specimen from Asymptomatic Child, China. Emerg Infect Dis 2020; 26.
[17]. Tang X, Wu C, Li X, et al. (2020). On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-
2. National Science Review 2020.
[18]. Van Doremalen N, Bushmaker T, Morris DH, et al. (2020). Aerosol and Surface Stability
of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1. N Engl J Med 2020.
[19]. Wang D, Hu B, Hu C, et al. (2020). Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients
With 2019 Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA 2020.
[20]. Wang W, Xu Y, Gao R, et al. (2020). Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Types of
Clinical Specimens. JAMA 2020.
[21]. World Health Organization Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on
CO VID-19 - 24 February 2020 Available at: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-
director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---24-february-2020
(Accessed on February 26, 2020).
[22]. Worldometer, (2020). COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic, 2020 Available at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Accessed on: 2020 March 29
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[23]. Wu Z, McGoogan JM. (2020). Characteristics of and Important Lessons from the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72 314
Cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA 2020.
[24]. Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, et al. (2020). A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new
coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 2020; 579:270.
[25]. Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, et al. (2020). A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with
Pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med 2020; 382:727.
[26]. Federal Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Health (FMOH): Ethiopia First edition, National
Comprehensive COVID-19 Management, Handbook, April 2020.
[27]. https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker,2020.
[28]. Corona Tracker Community Research Group, Corona tracker: World-wide COVID-19
Outbreak data analysis and prediction, March 2020.
[29]. https://www.lewuathe.com/covid-19-dynamics-with-sir-model.html, 2020.
[30]. Fred Brauer, Compartmental models in epidemiology. Mathematical epidemiology, pp 19-
79,1945
[31]. S M Ashrafur Rahman, Study of infectious diseases by mathematical models: Predictions
and controls, The University of Western Ontario, 2016.
[32]. Alastair Grant, Dynamics of COVID‐19 epidemics: SEIR models underestimate peak
infection rates and overestimate epidemic duration, 2020.
[33]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340114074: Mathematical modeling of the
spread of the coronavirus disease 2019( COVID-19) taking into account the undetected
infections. The case of China, 2020.
[34]. https://www.vindobona.org/article/coronavirus-worldwide-update, 2020.
[35]. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease/novel-coronavirus-2019, 2020
[36]. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/communication/publications.html.
[37]. W. O. Kermack, A. G. McKendrick, Contributions to the mathematical theory of
epidemics, 1927, 1991.
[38]. O. Diekmann, H. Heesterbeek, T. Britton, Mathematical tools for understanding infectious
disease dynamics, Vol. 7, Princeton University Press, 2012.
[39]. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) 2020
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[40]. Shrikrushna S. et al. (April 2020). A Review On Corona Virus (Covid-19). World
Journal of Pharmaceutical. wjpls, 2020, Vol. 6, Issue 4, 109-115
[41]. National Comprehensive Covid19 Management Handbook, FMOH, Ethiopia, First
edition, April 2020
13. DECLARATION OF APPLICANTS (investigators):

We the undersigned participants in this study agree to accept responsibility for the scientific,
ethical and technical conduct of the research project and for provision of required progress reports
as per terms and conditions of the RCSVP in effect at the time of grant if grant awarded as the
result of this application. Moreover, we declared that the proposed study is the original work of
the investigators.
S.No Name of Investigator(s) Role/ Responsibility Signature date
1. Getnet Bogale Team Leader 20/ 09/ 2012EC
2. Dr. Abdella Arega Coordinator 20/ 09/ 2012EC
3. Getahun Gebre Participant 20/ 09/ 2012EC
4. Nigusea Abyea Participant 20/ 09/ 2012EC
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14. QUESTIONNAIRE FOR COVID-19
Modeling, Analysis and Control Strategies of COVID-19

Transmission Dynamics: The case of Ethiopia
Background of the questionnaire
In late 2019, a new pandemic coronavirus outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, central China
which severe acute respiratory infection remains one of the leading causes of mortality disease in
humans around the world. The new zoonotic virus identified as the cause of the acute respiratory
disease in humans, later labeled as SARS-CoV2 by World Health Organization is a different strain
of corona virus from SARS and MERS CORONA viruses, causes of this disease, known as
COVID-19 have since been reported across around the globe. The number of COVID-19 patients
in the world is still increasing several months after the first case was reported from China. Citizens
in Ethiopia have unique social attachment (work place, religious culture and holidays,
transportation, etc.) are serious risk for transmission of COVID-19. Therefore, studying COVID-
19 in Ethiopia aspect is important about transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-
19.
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This study has received approval from Wollo University Research Ethics Review Committee
to conduct the research on Modeling, analysis and controlling strategies for transmission of
COVIUD-19 in Ethiopia. It is conducted and the data is collected by Dr. Abdella Arega, Getnet
Bogale, Getahun Gebrie, Nigussie Abye who are this research member.
Please note:
It is our belief that your responses are valuable and will be used only for the purpose of this
study with no leakage and abuse of your genuine information.
Thus, you are kindly requested to fill out and provide us your genuine responses to the novel
coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) by putting ‘X’ on the appropriate box that represents your
interest.
I. Variable: socio-demographic
1. How old are you? I am ____ years old.
2. What is your gender? [ ] Male [ ] Female
3. How many years of education have you completed?
[ ] 0-9 years [ ] 10-12 years (secondary school completed) [ ] more than 12 years
4. Are you a medical professional?
[ ] Nurse [ ] Medical doctor [ ] Pharmacist [ ] Other
5. Do you have a chronic illness? [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Don’t know

6. How many inhabitants live in the village or town in which you live?
[ ] ≤ 5,000 inhabitants [ ] 5,001 - 20,000 inhabitants
[ ] 20,001 - 100,000 inhabitants [ ] 100,001 - 500,000 inhabitants
[ ] > 500,000 inhabitants [ ] Do not know
7. Where do you live? [ ] Rural area [ ] Urban area

8. In which region do you live?
[ ] Region 1 [ ] Region 2 [ ] Region 3
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[ ] Addis Ababa [ ] Dire Dawa
9. Do you have children living at home with you? [ ] Yes [ ] No

10. How many people live in your household, including yourself?
[ ] I live alone [ ] I live with 1 or more persons
II. Variable: Risk group

11. Are you, or have you been, infected with the novel coronavirus?
[ ] Yes, tested and the result was positive [ ] Yes, suspected but not confirmed by a test
[ ] No, tested and the result was negative [ ] No [ ] Don't know
12. Do you know people in your immediate social environment who are or have been
infected with the novel coronavirus?
[ ] Yes, tested and the result was positive [ ] Yes, suspected but not confirmed by a test
[ ] No, tested and the result was negative [ ] No [ ] Don't know
III. Variable: Self-assessed knowledge

13. How would you rate your knowledge level on how to prevent spread of the novel
coronavirus?
[ ] Very poor knowledge [ ] poor knowledge
[ ] good knowledge [ ] Very good knowledge
IV. Variable: Knowledge symptoms, treatment [Random order of symptom items]
14. Which of the following can be symptoms of the novel coronavirus? Please select as many
as apply
15. Fever:
[ ] Related to the newly emerged coronavirus
[ ] Not related to the newly emerged coronavirus [ ] Don’t know
Cough: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
Shortness of breath: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
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Sore throat: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
Runny or stuffy nose: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
Muscle or body aches: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
Headaches: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
Fatigue (tiredness): [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
Diarrhea: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
Loss of taste and smell: [Answer scheme: see “Fever] [A, B, C]
16. Which answer is correct?
[ ] There is a drug to treat the novel coronavirus. [ ] There is a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.
[ ] There is both a drug for the treatment and a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.
[ ] There is currently no drug treatment or vaccine for the novel coronavirus. [ ] Don’t know
Variable: Knowledge incubation
17. What is the maximum incubation period (i.e., the time from viral infection to developing
symptoms of illness) of the novel coronavirus?
[ ] Up to 3 days [ ] Up to 7 days [ ] Up to 14 days [ ] Don’t know
Variable: Probability and Severity
18. What do you consider to be your own probability of getting infected with the novel
coronavirus? [ ] Extremely unlikely [ ] Unlikely [ ] Likely [ ] Extremely likely
19. How susceptible do you consider yourself to an infection with the novel coronavirus?
[ ] Not at all susceptible [ ] Some susceptible [ ] Susceptible [ ] Very susceptible
20. What do you consider to be your own probability of getting infected with the novel
coronavirus? [ ] Extremely unlikely [ ] Unlikely [ ] Likely [ ] Extremely likely
21. How severe would contracting the novel coronavirus be for you (how seriously ill do you
think you will be)? [ ] Not severe [ ] a few severe [ ] Severe [ ] Very severe
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Variable: Preparedness and Perceived self-efficacy
22. Next, the researchers would like to know about you own practices related to the novel
coronavirus. I know how to protect myself from coronavirus
[ ] Not at all [ ] Some information [ ] Much [ ] Very much so
23. For me avoiding an infection with the novel coronavirus in the current situation is…
[ ] Extremely difficult [ ] Difficult [ ] Easy [ ] Extremely easy
Variable: Prevention – own behaviors [“Another preventive measure”]
24. Which of the following measures have you taken to prevent infection from the novel
coronavirus? Please indicate for all measures below whether you have already taken them.
25. Hand washing for at least 20 seconds: [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply
26. Avoiding touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands:
[ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply
27. Use of disinfectants to clean hands when soap and water was not available for washing
hands: [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply
28. Staying home when you were sick or when you had a cold:
29. Herbal supplements: [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply

30. Covering your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze:
31. Wearing a face mask: [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply

32. Using antibiotics: [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply
33. Using homeopathic remedies: [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply
34. Physical distancing (keeping minimum 2 meters between you and other persons outside
your household): [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply
35. Self-isolation: [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Does not apply
36. Disinfecting surfaces, the mobile phone and caution when opening letters:
38/ 37 | P a g e
Another preventive measure, please

specify…………………………………………………………………………………
Not seeing my family and friends living outside my own home is
[ ] Impossible [ ] Possible [ ] Easy to do [ ] Very easy to do
Variable: Trust in sources of information [employer and health insurance are no compulsory
items]
37. How much do you trust the following sources of information in their reporting about the
novel coronavirus? Select as many as you use
38. Public television and radio stations:
[ ] Very little trust [ ] Little trust [ ] Trust [ ] A great deal of trust
39. Daily or weekly newspapers
40. Conversations with family and friends or colleagues
41. Consultation with health workers:
42. Private television and radio stations
43. MOH websites, medical institutions, officials, government press releases or online news
pages:
44. Social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, WhatsApp, Telegram)
39/ 37 | P a g e
45. Celebrities and social media influencers
Variable: Use of sources of information
46. How often do you use the following sources of information to stay informed about the
novel coronavirus?
47. Public television and radio stations:
[ ] Never [ ] Sometimes [ ] Often [ ] Very often
48. Daily or weekly newspapers:
49. Conversations with family and friends or colleagues:
50. Private television and radio stations
51. MOH websites, medical institutions, officials, government press releases or online news
pages:
52. Social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, WhatsApp, Telegram)
Other sources, namely……………………………………………………………….
40/ 37 | P a g e
15. ANNEX: CURRICULUM VITAE
15.1 Dr. Abdella Arega
Dr. Abdella Arega
(Assistant Professor)
Department of mathematics Skype: abdella342020@outlook.com

Wollo University, Ethiopia E-mail: abdella.arega@wu.edu.et
Mobile phone: +251911347495 : abdellatessema@gmail.com
Education
2014–2018 University of South Africa (UNISA), PhD. in applied mathematics obtained in
September 2018.
2005-2007 Addis Ababa University, M.SC., in mathematics obtained in 2007.
2000-2005 Addis Ababa University, B.SC., in mathematics obtained in 2005.
2017-2020 Rift Valley University, BA., in Accounting and finance obtained in 2020
Dissertation
“Modeling, Analysis and Numerical Method for HIV-TB co-infection with TB treatment in
Ethiopia”
Supervisor: Prof. E.F Doungmo Goufo. Department of mathematical science, University of
South Africa, Tel: 0116700159 E-mail: dgoufef@unisa.ac.za, South Africa.
Teaching Experience
 Assistant Professor (since September 2018): Assistant professor at Wollo University
Course (Postgraduate): Fundamental operation research, optimization theory, calculus
variation and optimal control, mathematical modeling and simulation, traffic flow, dynamic
systems and programming in MATLAB, Complex analysis.
41/ 37 | P a g e
Course (Undergraduate): Introduction to linear programming optimization,
Mathematical modelling, Operation research on optimization
 2013-2015: part-time lecturer in Sri Sai College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Course: Algebra and numerical analysis I and II for computer science students, and
introduction to probability and mathematics for business and management for
finance and accounting students.
 2007-2013 Lecturer in Wollo University, Ethiopia.
Course: applied mathematics, numerical analysis, linear optimization problem,
introduction to mathematical modelling, graph theory, linear algebra, calculus of
several variables, operation research, applied mathematics courses for engineering
students etc.
Training certificate on:
 Mathematical modelling weeks in Addis Ababa University, 2007
 Leadership training workshop in Wollo University, 2012
Management position experience
 2008- 2009 Student Service Assistant Director in Wollo University, Kombolcha
campus
 2010- 2012 Facility Managing Director in Wollo University, Kombolcha campus
Research Interests
Research on:
 mathematical modelling and simulation on ordinary and partial differential equations and
numerical methods,
 Optimization theory (optimal control, multi-objective problem, convex optimization)
 Numerical methods for higher order differential and partial differential equations
Projects on:
 Analysis and modeling of COVID-19
 Optimal control analysis of Chewing Khat (Catha edulis) in Ethiopia
 The quasi-inverse matrix diagonalization method to solve separable higher order linear
partial differential equations.
Publication
42/ 37 | P a g e
Avaliable at http://uir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/24851
Languages
Amharic (Mother Language); Fluent in English; and Listening Arabic.
Other Skills
Computer literate: Windows applications, Matlab, Mathematica, Maple, C++ and Clean Driving
Licence.
References
 Prof. E.F Doungmo Goufo, Department of mathematical science, University of South
Africa, Tel: 0116700159 E-mail: dgoufef@unisa.ac.za, GJ Gerwel building C638, South
Africa.
 Dr.A Kubeka, Department of mathematical science, University of South Africa, Tel:
0116700157 E-mail: kubekas@unisa.ac.za, GJ Gerwel building 6-47, South Africa.
 Dr. Benyam Mebrate, Department of mathematical science, Wollo University, Tel:
+251924700746, E-mail: benyam134@gmail.com, Ethiopia
43/ 37 | P a g e
15.2 Getnet B.
PERSONAL Getnet Bogale Begashaw
INFORMATION
Dessie, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
+251924780059/ +251948444161
getnetbogale145@gmail.com
Skype: Getnet.Bogale3
Nationality: Ethiopian
Marital Status: Single
Passport No.: EP4069500 (Date of Expiry: 14 JUL 2021)
Sex Male | Date of birth 29/04/1992 | Nationality Ethiopian
JOB APPLIED FOR Research Proposal for CRS.
WORK EXPERIENCE Two year
Oct 2018 – present Lecturer at Department of Statistics

Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
www.wu.edu.et
▪ Teaching, advising and mentoring undergraduate students
▪ Conducting scientific and community based researches
EDUCATION AND TRAINING

July 2018 Concepts in Joint Modeling and Computer Algorithm
Nov 2016 – Jan 2017 Statistical Packages SAS, LaTeX, R & STATA
Apr 2015 Statistical Software and Research Methodology
2012 – 2015 Data Quality, Management and Analysis
Oct 2016 – Jun 2018 Master of Biostatistics
Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan , Ethiopia
Grade
Thesis Topic 3.90
A Separate and Bayesian Joint Modeling for Longitudinal and Survival Data with Application to
HIV-Infected Patients under HAART Follow-up: A Case of Menilik II Referral Hospital, Addis
Ababa- Ethiopia
2012 – 2014 Bachelor of science in Statistics
Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
Grade 3.01
PERSONAL SKILLS
Mother tongue(s) Amharic
44/ 37 | P a g e
Other language(s) UNDERSTANDING SPEAKING WRITING
Spoken Spoken
Listening Reading
interaction production
English C2 C2 C2 C2 C2
Geez A2 C2 B2 B2 C2
Sign Language A2 A2 B2 A2 A2
Levels: A1/A2: Basic user - B1/B2: Independent user - C1/C2 Proficient user
TECHNICAL SKILLS AND ▪ Microsoft Office (Word, Excel, Power Point etc.)
COMPETENCES ▪ STATA, SPSS, MINITAB, WinBUGS, MlWiN, LaTeX
▪ R, SAS and many other packages.
▪ Basic computer usage and simple computer maintenance.
RESEARCH AND Survey coordination, Data collection, editing, entry and processing, Programs for data
SURVEY analysis
SAMPLING
 I have supervised graduate (Co-advisor) and undergraduate (Advisor) students for thesis
RESEARCH and senior research projects.
EXPERIENCE,  I deliver statistical capacity building, i.e. short training, short course, advising, manual
COMMUNITY preparation, research methodology, seminar preparation etc.
SERVICE
PUBLICATIONS  Getnet Bogale Begashaw, Yordanos Berihun Yohannes. Review of Outlier Detection and Identifying
Using Robust Regression Model. International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics.
Vol. 5, No. 1, 2020, pp. 4-11. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20200501.12
 Getnet Bogale Begashaw. Demonstrating the Performance of Accelerated Failure Time Model over
Cox-PH Model of Survival Data Analysis with Application to HIV-Infected Patients under HAART.
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Vol. 8, No. 6, 2019, pp. 193-202. doi:
10.11648/j.ajtas.20190806.11
 Getnet B., (2018), Explicit Application of Two Level Multi-Level Logistic Regression, LAP
LAMBERT Academic Publishing
 Ethiopian Statistical Association

MEMBERSHIPS
▪ Publication of Book from LAMBERT
▪ Appreciation in training of SPSS from General Manager, Scientific Research and Consultancy Services
plc.
CERTIFICATIONS ▪ Appreciation in training of SAS, STATA, ODK, R, LaTeX
SUBJECTS Statistical Computing, Biometry, Basic Statistics, Introduction to Probability, and

TAUGHT Statistics for Economics
PERSONAL My objective is to be a part of dynamic society, to advance myself in knowledge, to involve from inception to
INTEREST completion of any project related to education, technology and especially technical education and to be a
profound Professor in the elds. Unquestionably, my life's aim is to dramatically raise the height of the mountain
of knowledge so that my successors may have a more accurate view of the universe around them. I commit my
life to helping others and to advance society's level of understanding.
45/ 37 | P a g e
 Dr. Haftu Gebrehiwot (PhD), Mekelle University +251929521929 haftugebrehiwot@mu.edu.et
 Tilaye Matebe (MSc), Wollo University +251910165121 endaeyesus145@gmail.com
REFERENCES  Amsalu Arega (MSc), Wollo University +251911595453 amaremeko2086@gmail.com
15.3 Getahun G.
PERSONAL INFORMATION Getahun Gebre Bogale
Wollo University, Dessie, P.O.Box: 1145, Ethiopia
+251914715992
e-mail address: getahungebre21@gmail.com OR getahun.bogale@wu.edu.et

Sex Male | Date of birth 19/07/1981 | Nationality Ethiopian
WORK EXPERIENCE
October 2018 to Present Lecturer and Coordinator of Health Informatics Department

Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia. Website: www.wu.edu.et.
Activities and Responsibilities:
▪ Conducting researches and advising health science students for their paper works
▪ Lecturing and demonstrating public health informatics courses for students
▪ Coordinating Health Informatics Department
Business or sector: Public
July 2016 to Oct.2018 Lecturer and Coordinator of Educational Development Centre
Dessie Health Science College, Dessie, Ethiopia
▪ Conducting researches and advising students for their paper works
▪ Lecturing health science students
▪ Coordinating researches, quality assurance, in-service trainings, under EDC
Sector: Public
Dec.2012 – Jun.2013 Environmental Health Officer, Chairman of Infection
Prevention Committee, and PHEM Officer
Boru Meda Hospital
▪ Coordinate Infection Prevention (IP) activities
▪ Developing proposals to prevent Hospital Acquired Infections (HAIs)
▪ Assessing PHEM - cases
Sector: Public
Nov.2003 – Dec.2012 Instructor of Health Extension Trainees

W/Ro Siheen Polytechnic College, Merho Campus, Dessie, Ethiopia
▪ Lecturing public health science courses
Sector: Public
Sep.2000 – Nov. 2003 Health Education and Promotion Coordinator
Tenta Health Centre, Tenta, Ethiopia
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▪ Mobilize the community to prevent and control communicable diseases including HIV/AIDS and
Malaria
▪ Sector: Public
EDUCATION AND TRAINING
Sept.2014 - June 2016 Master of Public Health (MPH) in Health Informatics

University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia. Website: www.uog.edu.et.
▪ Principles and practice in Public health, Basic Biostatistics and data management, Basic
Epidemiology, Leadership Management and Governance, Health Communication and Partnership,
Introduction to Health Informatics, Telemedicine and e-Health, Health Information System Analysis and
Design, Healthcare database and data management, Geographic Information System (GIS) and
Disease Mapping, Monitoring and Evaluation, Research Method, and Thesis.
▪ Thesis title: Spatial patterns and associated factors of childhood diarrhea in Ethiopia: the case of
Ethiopia.
July 2005 – Sept.2008 Bachelor’s Degree in Environmental Health Science

University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Communication Skill/English, Biochemistry, Microbiology, Parasitology,
Occupational Health and safety, Ecology and Environment, Environmental Quality Control, Vector
Control, Water Supply, Food Hygiene, Waste and Hazardous waste management, Environmental
Health Law, Health Education, Environmental Pollution, Health Service Management.
Thesis in Theory and Project.
Thesis title: A Situational Analysis of Occupational Exposure and Common Health Problems in
Medium-Scale Industry Workers at Kombolcha Town, South Wollo Zone, Ethiopia.
Sept.1998 – July 2000 Diploma in Environmental Health Science
Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases Control, Biostatistics, English, Human Anatomy and
Physiology, Microbiology and Parasitology, Occupational Health and safety, Human Ecology and
Environmental Health, Medical Entomology, Vector Control, Water Supply, Food Hygiene, Solid and
Liquid waste managements, Environmental Health Law, Nutrition, Surveying, Health Education, Public
Health Administration.
PERSONAL SKILLS
Mother tongue(s) Amharic
Other language(s) UNDERSTANDING SPEAKING WRITING
Listening Reading Spoken interaction Spoken production
English Language C2: Proficient User C2: Proficient User C2: Proficient User C2: Proficient User C2: Proficient User
Levels: A1/A2: Basic user - B1/B2: Independent user - C1/C2 Proficient user
Common European Framework of Reference for Languages
47/ 37 | P a g e
Communication skills Excellent interpersonal and team communication skills gained through my experiences as an
instructor
Organisational / managerial skills ▪ Headship (currently responsible for Department of Health Informatics)
Job-related skills ▪ Good skills in searching strategy under internet. Nice team and social skills
Digital skills SELF-ASSESSMENT
Information Content Problem

Communication Safety
processing creation solving
Proficient user Proficient user Proficient user Proficient user Proficient user
Levels: Basic user - Independent user - Proficient user
Digital competences - Self-assessment grid
Computer Training Certificate
▪ Good command of office suite (word processor, spread sheet, presentation software)
▪ Good command of Spatial Analysis (ArcGIS software, SaTScan software)
▪ Good command of statistical analysis software (EPI INFO, SPSS, STATA)
Driving licence Level 2 (Ethiopia) – able to drive automobile that can convey 8 people
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Publications 1. Hotspots of unimproved sources of drinking water in Ethiopia: Mapping and Spatial analysis of Ethiopia
Demographic and Health Survey Data 2016. BMC Public Health (2020). DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-
08957-2
2. Determinants of Birth Asphyxia among New-borns in Referral Hospitals of Amhara National Regional State,
Ethiopia. Pediatric Health, Medicine and Therapeutics. 2020; 11:1.
https://www.dovepress.com/determinants-of-birth-asphyxia-among-newborns-in-referral-hospitals-of-peer-
reviewed-article-PHMT
3. “Survival Status and Its Determinants among Under-Five Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition Admitted
to Inpatient Therapeutic Feeding Centers in South Wollo Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia,” Journal of
Nutrition and Metabolism, vol. 2019, Article ID 2643531, 9 pages, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2643531.
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/jnme/2019/2643531.pdf
4. Determinants for not utilizing trachomatous trichiasis surgery among trachomatous trichiasis patients in
Mehalsayint District, North-East Ethiopia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 12(7): e0006669. DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0006669.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4bde/0cfe59469251d29013f6f76ea8edf0562e3f.pdf?_ga=2.54363502.73
6911511.1565249194-1222479501.1565249194
5. Spatial Patterns of Childhood Diarrhea in Ethiopia: Data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys
(2000, 2005, and 2011). BMC Infectious Diseases (2017) 17 (1):426. DOI 10.1186/s12879-017-2504-8.
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12879-017-2504-8
Capacity Building and Mentorship Program (CBMP-project), University of Gondar: Consortium member in
Project(s) implementation of the CBMP project at Tehuledere District, North-east Ethiopia
Ethiopian Public Health Association

Memberships
1. Kassahun Alemu, Ph.D. Head, Institute of Public Health. University of Gondar, Ethiopia
References Email: kassalemu@gmail.com Cell Phone: (+251) 911752466
2. Biniyam Tilahun, Ph.D. Department of Health Informatics. University of Gondar, Ethiopia
Chief Director for Research, Technology Transfer and Community Services and Lead, eHealthLab
Ethiopia. Email: Email: binigcms@gmail.com Cell Phone: (+251) 913875066
3. Mihiretu M. Kebede, Doctoral Research Fellow | Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and
Epidemiology - BIPS GmbH | Achterstraße 30 | D-28359 Bremen | Germany
Ph.D. Student | University of Bremen | Germany
48/ 37 | P a g e
Lecturer | Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar | Ethiopia
Email: mihiretaabush@gmail.com , kebede@leibniz-bips.de
4. Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw, Doctoral Research Fellow | University of Queensland - School of Public
Health, Australia – Brisbane
 Reviewer Certificate from SPRINGER NATURE of BioMed Central Limited

Certifications  Systematic Review and Meta-analysis certificate
 RESEARCH ETHICS TRAINING CURRICULUM Certificate by fhi360
 Compassionate, Respectful, and Caring (CRC) from Ministry of Health, Ethiopia
 OSCE Development from the Royal College of Surgeons of England
15.4 Nigusea A.
Mr. NIGUSSIE ABEYE

RESEARCH GATE:(Differential Equations)
Assistant Professor
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nigussie_Abeye
Mobile No.: +251930417303
ECareer
mail ID: Objective:
abebenigussie2004@gmail.com
To pursue a career to the best of my effort & realm of knowledge and to work as a key player in
challenging & creative environment for the overall development of the Institution, which provides ample
opportunities and growth?
Organizational Experience: 6 year
Currently
Assistant Professor, Head of Department
Department of Mathematics
49/ 37 | P a g e
College of Natural Sciences
Wollo University,
P.O.Box:1145, Dessie (Amhara), Ethiopia
From: July 07, 2015 to till date.
Teaching Assistant(GA-I&II)
Department of Mathematics
Wollo University,
P.O.Box:1145, Dessie (Amhara), Ethiopia
From Sep., 21, 2011 to Aug. 25, 2013
Educational Qualifications:
 M.Sc.: (Mathematics with specialization of Differential equations): Gondar University, Gondar,

Ethiopia, July, 2015.
 B.Sc.: (Applied Mathematics), Aksum University, Aksum, Ethiopia, July, 2011.
Area of Research work:
Differential equations (ODE & PDE), Mathematical modelling, Fractional calculus, Special functions,
Integral transforms, Basic hypergeometric functions, Mathematical physics, Fractional integral
inequalities.
M.Sc. Thesis Title: “Single Species Population Model.”
University: Gondar University, Gondar, Ethiopia.
Research Publications:
1. D.L. Suthar, G.V. Reddy and Nigussie Abeye: Integral formulas involving product of Srivastava's
polynomial and generalized Bessel Maitland functions. International Journal of Scientific
Research, Vol. 6(11), (2017), 343-351.
2. Biniyam Shimelis, Nigussie Abeye and G.V. Reddy: Generalized fractional Integral operators
associated with Aleph-function. International Journal of Current Research, Vol. 10(4), (2018),
67591-67596.
3. Nigussie Abeye and D.L. Suthar: The H -function and Srivastava's polynomials involving the
generalized Mellin-Barnes contour integrals, Journal of Fractional Calculus and Applications,
Vol. 10(2), (2019), 290-297 (ISSN: 2090-5858).
50/ 37 | P a g e
4. D.L. Suthar, Belete Debalkie and Nigussie Abeye: The extended multi-index Mittag-Leffler
functions and its properties associated with fractional calculus and integral transforms, Advances
in difference equation- Springer, Communicated.
5. D.L. Suthar, Biniyam Shimelis, Nigussie Abeye and Hafte Amsalu: New composition formulae for
the generalized fractional integral and derivative operators with the extended Mittag-Leffler
function. Mathematische Nachrichten, Communicated.
6. D.L. Suthar, Mengesha Ayene and Nigussie Abeye: Modified saigo integral operator associated
with Aleph-function, AIMS, Communicated.
Module / Manual / Guideline Preparation:
1. Module on “Special Function” as Editor for Postgraduate Mathematics Students, Distance

and continued education, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia, 2017.
2. Module on “Tensor Analysis” as editor for Postgraduate Mathematics Students, Distance and
continued education, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia, 2017.
3. A Matlab Manual for Calculus I & Linear Algebra I, Department of Mathematics, Wollo
University, Ethiopia, 2018.
4. A Proposal on “Research and community services” as reviewer, College of Natural
Sciences, Wollo University, Ethiopia, 2018.
Conferences /Seminars/Workshops- Attended
1. 5th Annual National Research Conference (Theme: The contribution of Science and Technology
for the second growth and transformation plan), Wollo University, Dessie, (Ethiopia), May., 07-
08, 2016.
2. 6th Annual National Research Conference (Theme: Building the Future through Research and
Technology Transfer), Wollo University, Dessie, (Ethiopia), May., 06-07, 2017.
3. 7th Annual National Research Conference , Wollo University, Dessie, (Ethiopia), May……., 2018.
4. 8th Annual National Research Conference , Wollo University, Dessie, (Ethiopia), May., 4-5, 2019.
Community Services training (Trainer):
(i) “Winplot software training” at Kombolcha Millennium high school for Mathematics Teachers,
2016.
(ii) “Introducing Geogebra software” at Medhanialem Elementary School for Mathematics
Teachers, 2017.
51/ 37 | P a g e
Project Services training (Trainer):
(i) “Wollo Initiative English-STEM Outreach and Engagement (WIESOE)” - Project-I; from
22 October, 2016 to 05 February, 2017 at College of Natural Science, Wollo University,
Dessie, Ethiopia.
(ii) “Wollo Initiative E-STEM Outreach and Engagement (WIESOE) - Afar Project held at Aysayta
Secondary and Preparatory Schools for Mathematics Teachers from 16 February, 2017 to 01
March 2017.
(iii) “Wollo Initiative English-STEM Outreach and Engagement (WIESOE)” - Project-II ; from
04 March, 2017 to 04 June, 2017 at College of Natural Science, Wollo University, Dessie,
Ethiopia.
(iv) “Wollo Initiative English-STEM Outreach and Engagement (WIESOE)” Project-II from 11
November, 2017 – 26 May, 2018 at College of Natural Science, Wollo University, Dessie,
Ethiopia.
(v) “Wollo Initiative English-STEM Outreach and Engagement (WIESOE)” Project from 12
February, 2018 – 20 February, 2018 at Kemissie Secondary and Preparatory Schools for
Mathematics teachers.
Membership of Professional Bodies:
I am the life member of the following of Mathematical societies/ bodies of national and international level.
1. Life Member, Rajasthan Ganit Parished, (RGP); M.No.- 19/534.

2. Life Member, Teaching and Education Research Association (TERA)
M. No.- TERA-M192039
Extra-Curricular Activities:
I was engaged in different committee’s member at college and department level in Wollo University,
Dessie, Ethiopia.
(i) Member of Academic Council Committee

(ii) Member of Department Council
52/ 37 | P a g e
(iii) Member of Department Graduate Committee in Department of Mathematics
(iv) Member of Exam Standard Committee,
(v) Member of Student’s Placement Committee.
.
Technical Knowledge:
Office Packages : MS – Office 2007, 10
Programming Languages : MATLAB, LATEX.
Personal Profile:
Name : Mr. Nigussie Abeye
Date of Birth : May 21, 1988
Sex : Male
Marital Status : Married
Nationality : Ethiopian
Languages : Amharic & English
Permanent : P.O. Box: 1145, Dessie
Address Amhara region, Ethiopia.
References:
1. Dr. Birku Demeoz , Associate Professor, Gondar University, Gondar, ETHIOPIA.

Email ID: ……………..@gmail.com ; Mob. No.: +251581141237
53/ 37 | P a g e
2. Dr. D.L. Suthar, Associate Professor , Wollo University, Dessie, ETHIOPIA.
Email ID: dlsuthar@gmail.com; Mob. No.: +251943740753
3. Dr. Garima Tefera, Assistant Professor, Wollo University, Dessie, ETHIOPIA.

Email ID: gerima233@gmail.com; Mob. No.: +251900459190
54/ 37 | P a g e

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Modeling, Analysis and Control Strategies of COVID-19

Transmission Dynamics: The case of Ethiopia

No. Name Educational Academic Email Mobile Dept. Specialization

SUB-THEMATIC AREA: MATHEMATICAL MODELING

LOCATION (S): ETHIOPIA, ALL REGIONS

DURATION OF THE PROJECT:

01/ 10/ 2012 EC 30/ 03/ 2013EC

TOTAL AMOUNT OF GRANT REQUESTED IN BIRR: 199,133.00

Keywords: Control Strategies, Transmission Dynamics, Covid-19, Ethiopia, Mathematical

1.2 Literature review

1.2.1 Epidemiologic Characteristics and terminologies

1.3 Statement of the Problem

1.4 Rationale of Study

1.5 Research Questions

2. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:

2.2 Specific Objectives

Table 1: Distribution of Confirmed Cases of Covid-19 by Region, May, 2020

Region Total Cases Total Death

3.1.3 Source and collection of Data

Region Laboratory center No of patient No patient Number of death

3.2.1 Sample Size Determination

In related, the total sample size = 4000 + 400 = 4400.

It is also categorized region wise as follows.

Region Number of respondents Total

3.2.2 Eligibility criteria

3.2.3 COVID-19 Model Description/ Formulation

Figure 2: Flow Diagram of COVID-19 Model

4. QUALITY ASSURANCE MECHANISMS:

5. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS (IF ANY):

7. BENEFITS AND BENEFICIARIES OF THE PROPOSED STUDY:

9. STUDY TEAM-ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES IN UNDERTAKING AND

14. Submission of final draft Research team 

11. THE STUDY BUDGET

11.1 EQUIPMENT AND CONSUMABLE

2. Soaps Pcs 50 14 700.00

8. Hard Disk Pcs 3 2800 8400.00

9. Flesh Pcs 5 350 1750.00

10. CD-ROM Pcs 4 30 120.00

11. Copy (total pages) page 500 2 1,000.00

12. Pens Pcs 54 10 540.00

13. Paper package 2 450 900.00

14. Binding Pcs 15 20 300.00

15. Note book Pcs 4 50 200.00

16. Drink water Pcs 300 11.50 3,450.00

11.2 PERSONNEL COSTS (Researchers)

1. Consultant/ External Science Pcs 4 7500.00 30,000

2. Training Module Preparation Pcs 4 2500.00 10,000

3. Policy maker MOH Pcs 4 2500.00 10,000

4. Internal Coordinator Pcs 4 2500.00 10,000

No Type of activity Unit Total Number/ Unit price in Total price in

1. Supervisors (External Coordinator) Pcs 12 1493 17,916.00

2. Data clerk Pcs 12 1242 14,904.00

3. Data cleaner Pcs 6 1106 6,636.00

4. Data analyst Pcs 17 1109 18,853.00

5. Report Writer Pcs 6 965 5,790.00

6. Editor Pcs 6 754 4,524.00

11.4 TRANSPORT COST:

No Budget line Expenditure

Unit Quantity Unit cost Total cost

1. Bus Ticket Pcs 24 468 11,232.00