America Goes To The Polls 2008 05.01.09
America Goes To The Polls 2008 05.01.09
America Goes To The Polls 2008 05.01.09
org
america
And Connecticut Association of Nonprofits CT Center for a New Economy Maine Association of Nonprofits Montana Nonprofit Association New Mexico Association of Grantmakers and member foundations New Hampshire Center for Nonprofits North Carolina Center on Nonprofits
Engagement
Table of ConTenTs
iii iv 1 2-3 4 -15 4 5 6 -7 8 -9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-19 20 Foreward Introduction Methodology Executive Summary US Voter tUrnoUt in 2008 u.S. turnout in 2008 and historical trends 2008 State Turnout Rankings Growth in Voter Turnout in the States Campaign Spending and Voter Turnout Election Day Registration and Turnout Early Voting in 2008 Youth Vote 2008 African American and Latino Vote in 2008 Expanding Voter Registration Early Voting Voting Rights for Ex-Offenders other key election reformS Sources
www.nonprofitvote.org
AMeRICA GOeS TO The POllS A Report on Voter Turnout in the 2008 General election Prepared by George Pillsbury Senior Policy and Development Director, Julian Johannesen Research Associate, Rachel Adams Communications Associate
Nonprofit Voter engagement Network A national program of the Minnesota Council of Nonprofits, St. Paul, Minnesota
This report was produced with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Mitchell Kapor Foundation, Open Society Institute, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Surdna Foundation, The John Merck Fund, The George Gund Foundation, The Solidago Foundation, The Threshold Foundation, Tides Foundation and individual donors.
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foreward
By Michael McDonald Voting is groovy again. After a four decade lull, American voter participation has returned to relatively high levels last experienced during the 1960s. Indeed, the 2008 turnout rate does not represent a true apples-to-apples comparison. Lower participatory eighteen to twenty year olds are now counted among the electorate. Now excluded are about half a million rejected mail ballots, compared with fewer numbers when absentee voting required a valid excuse. What will befuddle those who study voting is that conditions posited to explain lower voter participation still exist: low trust in government, an anemic civic society, negative campaigning, and television alternatives to political programming. Some clues for the greater participation level may be lurking in this report: early voting and Election Day registration (EDR), renewed voter mobilization efforts, and greater participation among minorities. Can participation go higher? Iowa and Montana adopted EDR since the 2004 presidential election. Yet, both experienced only modest increases in turnout. Given high turnout in other EDR states, it may be that it takes time for voters to grow accustomed to a new rule. Voters are embracing early voting, which experienced explosive growth over the last decade. Scholarly studies at the outset of early voting found no appreciable turnout benefits. The story may be different now. A telling indicator is that turnout rates increased from the modern low in 1996 along with rising early voting levels. The high number of rejected mail ballots suggests states should proceed cautiously in reformulating their early voting laws. Beyond changing how elections are run, voter mobilization appears to the primary voting determinant. States that entered the electoral battleground in 2008 experienced the greatest turnout increase. Those remaining on the battleground experienced smaller increases or remained essentially the same. Those that left had more modest increases or actually experienced declines. An enthusiasm gap is also evident. Non-battleground states with significant African-American populations who turned out in large numbers experienced turnout increases from 2004. Turnout rates actually decreased in some deep red states such as utah and Alaska, among others. Which is all to answer that turnout can go higher. As more states adopt EDR and early voting, incremental turnout benefits will likely follow. When Republicans became enthusiastic again turnout rates will increase. Still, to push turnout much higher electoral competition must be expanded. Imagine if California, New York, and Texas were battleground states. For this reason, a national popular vote for president may hold the key to further increasing American voter participation. Dr. Michael P. McDonald is an Associate Professor in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason university and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute. He runs the united States Election Project and serves on the Nonprofit Voter Engagement Networks Advisory Board
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a democracy.
citizenship and
meThodology
Voter tUrnoUt Voter turnout numbers come from the u.S. Election Project at George Mason university, directed by Professor Michael McDonald. The Election Project has compiled data on eligible voters and voter turnout dating back to 1980. To arrive at the number of citizen eligible voters 18 years or older for each state, the Election Project uses information from the u.S. Census and other government sources for citizenship data and felon data to establish the approximate number of eligible voters in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The Election Project collects voter turnout data from State Election offices and reports it in two ways: Highest Office Turnout, the total votes counted for the highest office on the ballot and, where available, Total Turnout, the total number of voters who cast a ballot that was counted. This difference between Highest Office Turnout and Total Turnout is called the residual vote. It is composed mainly of undervotes which occur when a voter chooses not to vote in the highest office race. It also includes some overvotes which occur when a voter mistakenly marks more than one choice for any one office and the ballot is spoiled for that race. For Presidential elections, total turnout has averaged about one percent higher than the highest office turnout for the last two elections. To reflect the actual number of people voting, we use total turnout. Most states report this number. For those that do not, we calculate their total turnout based on their highest office turnout increased by 1% to account for residual votes. Voter tUrnoUt by GroUPS We report turnout information for demographic groups from survey research such as that of the u.S. Census Current Population Survey. Other sources include CIRCLEs for data on young voters, Pew Hispanic Research Center for Latino voters, and CNNs America Votes 2008. A major source of the CNN data is the National Election Pools national exit poll conducted in 2008 by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for CNN, Associated Press, ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, The New York Times and others. The u.S. Census will provide its widely used survey research on the 2008 elections later this year.
exeCuTIve summary
U.S. Voter tUrnoUt continUeS to riSe the 2008 presidential election saw the highest voter turnout in 40 years. 62% eligible voters cast a ballot, close to the levels of the Kennedy and Johnson elections in 1960 (64%) and 1964 (63%) which at that time were highest since 1908. This was the third consecutive presidential election in which voter turnout has risen, marking a possible end to the period of lower than usual voter turnout that began in 1972, the year when 18-20 year olds gained the right to vote the participation growth was fueled in part by large increases in voting by young voters 18-29 and latino and black voters. Voter turnout among young voters ages 18-29 went up for the third consecutive national election, pushing youth turnout over 50% of eligible youth voters in 2008. More than 12 million Latino voters cast ballots, continuing their steady climb as a share of the u.S. electorate. Latinos represented an estimated 9% those voting in 2008, up from 8% in 2004 and 7% in 2000. The largest increases in Latino voting were in the western battleground states of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. About 2.6 million more black voters went to the polls in 2008 compared to 2004, increasing their share of the national vote from 11% to 13%.
minnesota (78.5%), Wisconsin (73.3%) and maine (72.7%) again led the nation in turnout of eligible voters. These are the same three states that first started using Election Day registration back in the 1970s allowing voters to fix registration issues at the polls on Election Day. 25 states and the District of columbia achieved their highest voter turnout since the u.S. Election Project, the source of turnout data for this report, began tracking state by state turnout in 1980. North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina, and Mississippi led states that improved their voter turnout between 2004 and 2008, surging 10.8%, 9.9%, 9.8% and 8.9% respectively (adjusted for growth in the states voting eligible populations.) Turnout plunged in utah, dropping by 14.1% from 2004. bAttleGroUnD StAteS Get money, ViSitS AnD VoterS 95% of the 495 million dollars spent on campaign ads in the final six weeks of the campaign by the candidates, parties and interest groups went to 15 battleground states. More than half of that was spent in just the four super-battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia. More than 98% of campaign events took place in the same 15 states, with more than half of those events taking place in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Voter turnout in the 15 battleground states averaged seven points higher than in the 35 non-battleground states. In 2008, 132 million or three of five eligible voters, lived in non-battleground states where campaigns rarely visited, spent little to no money and did little organizing.
r highest
neW trenDS
election Day registration Spreads: Since the last presidential race, two more states (Iowa and Montana) have adopted Election Day registration (EDR), enabling voters to fix a registration issue or register for the first time at the polls on Election Day. EDR was deemed a success and both states improved their national rank in voter turnout. one-Stop Voting a Success: North Carolina also adopted a form of EDR during their 16 day early voting period. Called one-stop voting, voters in North Carolina could register and vote at the same time when voting early. With its one-stop voting and battleground state status, voter participation in North Carolina rose faster than any state in the nation, with a 10.8% turnout increase over 2004. early Voting expands: More voters than ever voted early. Close to 40 million- or 30% of Americans casting ballots- took advantage of the opportunity to vote early in-person or through the mail (compared to 20% of voters in 2004 and 7% in 1992). Early voting was not only popular with voters, but also was credited with smoother election days in Ohio, Florida and other states. mail-in ballots hit Snags: On the other hand, vote by mail had increasing problems. An estimated 500,000 to 750,000 mail ballots were rejected because voters had made simple mistakes such as failing to sign or date the correct envelope. In Minnesota 12,000 mail in ballots were deemed problems by Election Boards. North Carolina rejected 7.6% of mail or absentee votes.
Voter registration issues reported biggest Voting Problem: The problems of voter registration took center stage in the 40 states without Election Day Registration, where a maze of voter registration laws meant an estimated 1-2 million eligible voters wanting to cast ballots inadvertently missed advance deadlines or had registrations lost, returned or processed incorrectly by election boards, government agencies and third party registration drives. campaign Spending Set records: For the first time ever, presidential candidate spending topped one billion dollars. While there was a hopeful rise in small donor giving, the small donors were still drowned out by larger donors giving upwards of several thousand dollars each. Over 80% of campaign funds came from large donors. millions of ex-offenders remain barred from Voting: In 2008, an estimated 3.5-4 million American citizens with a felony conviction who had completed their prison term were still barred from voting in the election by felony disenfranchisement laws in 35 states. Rhode Island was the newest state to join the 14 other states that allow citizens to automatically regain their voting right after incarceration, as is the (minimum) standard of every other democracy. States Add Paper trail laws: By the 2008 election the number of states that had passed a law that requires voter-verified paper records (vvpr) of ballots cast had grown to 31. Eight other states dont have a vvpr law but only use paper ballots.
Broad voter mobilization efforts by the presidential campaigns, advocacy groups and nonpartisan voter engagement helped drive voter turnout to 62% of eligible voters in 2008, closely approaching the most recent turnout highs of the Kennedy and Johnson elections in the early 1960s. 2008 continued a trend towards higher turnout. This increase in citizen participation follows decades of somewhat lower turnout that began when 18 year olds won the right to vote in 1972 (with the exception of a spike in 1992 when Ross Perot ran an unusually strong third party campaign). The participation increase was fueled in part by large increases in voting by young voters 18-29 and Latino and Black voters. Factors lowering the turnout rate include lower turnout in many non-battleground states (see chart p.9) high rejection rates for mail-in ballots and a larger than expected number of older voters who didnt vote. Voter Turnout Rises for 3rd Consecutive Election
65% 60% 55% 64%> 63%> 62%> 57%> 55%> 55%> 57%> 54%> 59%> 53%> 55%> 61%> 62%> 50% 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Total Ballots Cast as a Percent of Voting Eligible Population
80% 70% 60% 68.5% 50% AK 68.5% 68.8% 69.4% 70.2% 70.5% OR MO MI IA CO 72.2% 72.7% NH ME 73.3% 78.5% WI MN
State
Minnesota Wisconsin Maine New Hampshire Colorado Iowa Michigan Missouri Alaska Oregon Virginia Maryland Florida Connecticut Washington Ohio Montana Vermont New Jersey Massachusetts North Carolina Delaware North Dakota Wyoming Pennsylvania South Dakota
VEP
3,721,943 4,113,565 1,024,699 997,247 3,441,907 2,199,849 7,263,250 4,296,592 477,763 2,695,058 5,500,265 3,888,726 12,426,633 2,451,296 4,535,438 8,541,239 741,538 487,430 5,844,477 4,652,749 6,551,412 622,664 486,871 389,304 9,363,381 598,635
TO
78.5% 73.3% 72.7% 72.2% 70.5% 70.2% 69.4% 68.8% 68.5% 68.5% 68.2% 68.2% 68.0% 67.9% 67.7% 67.6% 67.1% 67.1% 66.9% 66.7% 66.5% 66.4% 66.0% 65.8% 64.9% 64.7%
EDR
X X X X X
SS
X X X X X X X
State
Idaho Nebraska Illinois Kansas Rhode Island Louisiana California Georgia Alabama Mississippi Dist of Columbia New Mexico Indiana Kentucky South Carolina Nevada New York Tennessee Oklahoma Arizona Texas Utah Arkansas West Virginia Hawaii United States
VEP
1,034,402 1,278,980 8,794,625 1,978,713 754,438 3,158,676 21,993,429 6,390,590 3,398,289 2,114,108 438,201 1,376,025 4,634,261 3,156,794 3,279,329 1,652,846 13,183,464 4,533,233 2,578,351 4,096,006 14,780,857 1,787,350 2,033,146 1,409,823 898,922 212,720,027
TO
64.5% 63.5% 63.4% 63.1% 62.9% 62.7% 62.5% 62.0% 62.0% 61.6% 60.9% 60.6% 60.5% 58.9% 58.8% 58.7% 58.2% 57.8% 57.3% 56.7% 55.2% 54.3% 53.9% 51.9% 50.7% 62.3%
EDR
X
SS
X X
X X
X X
X NR X
Turnout is the percent of the Voting eligible Population who cast a ballot that was counted on or before election Day (including those provisional votes and other votes validated post-election). A few states report only total votes counted for the highest office race (President). For those states, we add a standard 1% residual vote rate in order to arrive at an estimate of total ballots cast. Primary source: U.S. election Project. Swing states based on spending, candidate appearances (see p.8-9). * NC combines eDR and One Stop early Voting.
Looking at turnout growth turns the spotlight from high turnout states like Minnesota to states like North Carolina or Virginia where participation rose sharply over 2004. The impact of higher turnout among black voters (AL, DC, etc.) and Latino voters (CA, NV) can be seen in the charts below. We also see the likely impact that having a native son on the ticket in President Obamas home states (IL, HI) had on turnout, and how a change to battleground state status (NC, VA, IN) can improve turnout. Overall 26 states achieved their highest voter turnout since the U.S. Election Project began tracking state by state turnout in 1980. Not a single state recorded its lowest turnout. The adjacent states of North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia were leaders among states that improved their voter turnout between 2004 and 2008, with increases of 10.8%, 9.8% and 9.9% respectively after adjusting for growth in the states voting eligible populations. Turnout in North Carolina benefited from one-stop voting, which allowed voters to register and vote at the same time throughout its early voting period. Being a new swing state boosted turnout in Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina, while Washington, Oregon and Maine became less important Electoral College battlegrounds. Ten States with Largest Turnout Gains over 2004
Adjusted for change in Voting Eligible Population between 2004 and 2005
11% 9% 7% 6.0% 5% RI 6.3% DC 6.5% MD 7.5% AL 7.5% GA 8.0% IN 8.9% MS 9.8% SC 9.9% VA 10.8% NC
Gain
10.8% 9.9% 9.8% 8.9% 8.0% 7.5% 7.5% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0% 5.3% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4%
Increase in Voters
802,122 529,903 300,433 138,697 293,844 215,305 646,348 255,637 36,766 34,237 138,456 175,540 227,702 24,402 41,503 1,153,810 55,452 163,388 272,067 244,686 23,262 277,339 813,424 189,822 672,612
Growth Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State
New Mexico Delaware New Hampshire Minnesota Vermont New York Tennessee Wyoming North Dakota Washington Iowa Ohio Idaho Maine Arkansas Kentucky Kansas Nebraska Arizona Oregon Alaska Oklahoma West Virginia Wisconsin South Dakota Utah
Gain
2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% -1.0% -1.4% -1.4% -1.7% -2.1% -2.5% -3.0% -3.3% -3.4% -4.5% -4.8% -8.3% -14.2%
Increase in Voters
58,064 36,155 35,971 78,235 12,602 226,518 161,628 10,246 5,084 188,088 21,696 50,944 54,720 -7,063 25,385 41,711 35,123 19,017 282,782 -6,420 12,839 -1,323 -37,954 -3,037 -7,481 29,175
Growth Rank
26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
Notes on the Table 1. Turnout growth is the percent increase or decrease in total turnout of eligible voters compared to the last Presidential election in 2004 adjusted for the growth in the number of eligible voters in the states from 2004 to 2008. 2. The numerical increase in voters is the total unadjusted for population change
35% 25% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 20% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 29% 30% 5% TN OH KY NH AZ MO NM WI MI AL DE CO FL PA DC MS VA SC MD GA NC NV
New fundraising records were set in 2008. As usual, most of the millions raised were spent on a small number of voters in a small number of super battleground states, evidenced most clearly in the final six weeks of the campaign. After the conventions, the partys nominees spent little money and made few stops in the vast majority of u.S. states. In the final 6 weeks of the campaign, more than 95% of money spent by the candidates on ads was spent in only 15 states, which account for less than 40% the nations voting eligible population. More than half of that money was spent in the 4 super battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
ND MN WI MI PA OH IL IN WV VA KY NC SC AL GA NY VT NH MA
IA
NV
RI CT NJ DE DC MD
AZ
OK NM
HI
ND MN WI MI PA OH IL IN WV VA KY NC SC AL GA NY VT NH MA
IA
NV
RI CT NJ DE DC MD
Campaign ad spending correlates closely with the candidates campaign events during that time period. More than 98% of campaign events took place in the same 15 states, with more than half of those events taking place in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
AZ
OK NM
HI
In 2008, the 15 battleground states where candidates spent the most money and time- and where campaign organizing and mobilization was more intense- averaged turnout that was seven points higher than in non-battleground states. Low turnout in the large non-swing states of California, New York and Texas home to 40 million eligible voters was one reason turnout was lower than the most recent 1960 high of the Kennedy-Nixon contest. 2008 Effect of Large Non-Swing States on Turnout
70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 62% 64%
The winner-take-all and balkanized dynamics of the Electoral College have a negative impact on voter turnout. Campaigns have no incentive to spend resources in a state that is either securely in their grasp or out of their reach when those resources could be better spent in a state where the outcome is unknown. The number of safe states has increased in the last four elections while the number of swing states has declined, with more and more voters left feeling irrelevant. In 2008, 132 million or three out of five citizen eligible voters lived in a non-battleground state where campaigns rarely visited, spent little to no money and did little organizing. The civic loss to the 132 million eligible voters in the non-swing states cant be quantified. Non-swing state voters must leave their state to impact the election. People in non-swing states miss the meaningful opportunity to contact their neighbors or hold events unless its to call voters in swing states! They will not have a major candidate visit and will see less news coverage and fewer ads (like them or not). Even in battleground states, all are not equal. In all but two states, the presidential election is winnertake-all. That means that, even though mobilizing the base in a state is important, campaigns often end up spending disproportionate resources on a small group of swing, undecided voters. When 95% of campaign dollars go to 15 states and most of those dollars are spent on a small group of undecided voters in those states, tens of millions of voters are left out. A growing number of states and citizen organizations have taken up the call to replace the Electoral College with a national popular vote. It is time to extend the principle of one person, one vote to our nations election for its highest office to ensure every citizens vote counts and is campaigned for. For more on a National Popular Vote plan, see section on National Popular Vote, p.19.
Election Day Registration allows voters to either update their voter registration or register for the first time and vote on Election Day all at their polling place. The newest states to adopt a form of Election Day registration - Iowa, Montana, and North Carolina all had great success. States that already allow voters to address registration issues when voting include Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Idaho and Wyoming. North Dakota does not have voter registration. States that have Election Day Registration have had consistently higher voter participation rates, even after adjusting for all other turnout factors. Five of the six top turnout states in the 2008 presidential election (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire and Iowa) are EDR states. Overall, in the 2008 presidential election, states with EDR averaged voter turnout 10 points higher than states without EDR This higher turnout in EDR states is consistent with previous presidential elections years (see chart). Voter Turnout in States with EDR vs. Others
75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 62% Non-EDR 71% EDR States
Election Day Registration represents an important first step towards universal and automatic voter registration for all eligible citizens. For more, see section on Expanding Voter Registration p.14. ,
2000
2004
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Primary Sources: US election Project, Democracy Corps, The early Voting Information Center, electionline.org
Early voting includes voting early in person, by mail, or dropping off a mail-in ballot on Election Day. The impact of early voting on turnout in presidential elections is difficult to quantify. However, there is no doubt that early voting, particularly early voting in-person, provides low-income and urban voters (those who face the greatest barriers to voting) or any voter, with increased opportunity to vote. Every state has some form of early voting even if only by-mail and with an excuse. As of the 2008 election, 36 states allowed early voting in-person or by mail without an excuse. For more information, go to the additional early voting section on page 15 of this report. Early voting continued to grow in 2008, rising from 20% of votes cast in 2004 to 30% of votes cast in 2008, representing about 40 million early voters. For comparison, in 1992 only 7% of voters cast their vote before Election Day. Reasons for this rise include changes in state law that allowed more voters to vote early; greater promotion of early voting by election officials, the campaigns and the media; and increased voter enthusiasm. Nearly half of all early voters in 2008 had never used early voting before. For one in 10 early voters, 2008 was their first time voting. In 10 states, more than half of all ballots cast were cast early (Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington) Early voting rose most dramatically in Georgia, Colorado, Utah and North Carolina. Each of these states saw an increase in early voting of roughly 30% compared to 2004. Higher early voting was credited with smoother election days in Ohio and Florida and other states. Early Voting as a Portion of Overall Voting
1992, 2000, 2004, 2008 (1996 unavailable)
30% 20% 10% 7%> 0% 1992 2000 15%> 2004 20%> 2008 30%>
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Primary Source: CIRCle, National election Pool exit Poll by edison Media Research and Mitofsky International as reported by CNN election Center. The Census will release its often cited estimates of youth turnout later this year.
Youth voter turnout in 2008 set a new record since 18-20 year olds gained the right to vote in 1972. It marked the third consecutive presidential election where turnout among young voters 18-29 has risen. The total youth turnout is estimated at 22-24 million, or 52-3% of eligible voters aged 18-29, up from 48% in 2004 and 41% in 2000. Young voters comprised 18% of the electorate on November 4th compared to 17% in 2004, continuing their steady rise in vote share in 2004, 2000 and 1996. A significant factor is higher voting among Latino and black youth and the large share of the youth vote they and other young voters of color represent. The Youth Vote Is Steadily Growing
Youth vote as share of the eligible youth voting population
60% 50% 40% 37%> 30% 1996 2000 41%> 2004 48%> 2008 52%>
CIRCLE, the leading source on trends in youth voting, notes that increases in young Latino vote and young black vote played a key role in the 2008 overall percentage increases of Latino and black voters. Black and Latino Share of Youth Vote Rises
As a percentage of the overall youth voting population
Black
Latino
15% 2004
17% 2008
8% 1996
10% 2000
13% 2004
17% 2008
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Primary Source: U.S. Census Report on Voting 1996, 2000, 2004; 2008 National election Pool exit Poll by edison Media Research and Mitofsky International as reported by CNN election Center, Pew hispanic Center
The African American vote showed a significant jump in 2008 to 13% of those voting in the 2008 election, up from 11% in 2004. This represents about 2.6 million more black voters going to the polls in 2008. Higher black turnout helped southern states achieve their highest voter turnout in at least 30 years. (Including AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA) A Surge in African American Voters in 2008
As a share of the overall voting population
14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 11% 1996 12% 2000 11% 2004 13% 2008
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Beyond eDR, there are other valuable proposals to make voter registration more automatic and encourage higher levels of voting and citizenship. Register high school students at graduation or when signing up for selective service. Register new citizens at swearing in ceremonies Implement the 1993 National Voter Registration Act that ask federal agencies to register people receiving government services. Make voter registration opt-out rather than opt-in with the application for or renewal of a drivers license or other state ID
If not for EDR, tens of thousands of voting-eligible Iowans would not have been able to participate in this historic election.
Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro
14 America Goes to the Polls 2008
early voTIng
Early voting is a growing part of American elections. In the 2008 presidential election, a record breaking 30+ million voters cast their ballots before Election Day, either in-person or through the mail. Millions of others in non-early voting states would have done so as well, had they the option. Since Tuesday voting was adopted to convenience farmers of the mid-19th century, work day voting has presented problems for many voters. Early voting goes much farther to address these problems than have past alternatives. Extending voting hours has limited effect. Voting on Saturday might make it easier to recruit poll workers, but Saturday is a day when most Americans are running errands, attending sporting events, vacationing, etc. Making Election Day a holiday in presidential election years is not a bad idea, but it is not a solution for the many important primaries, off-year elections and special elections. A FEDERAL DEMOCRACY STANDARD Early voting is a relatively new way to vote and best practices for early voting are still emerging. Early voting can be divided into two broad categories: early in-person voting and absentee voting or vote-by-mail. early In-Person Voting This report defines early in-person voting as the option to vote early at a designated early voting site or at a local election office. It could also include delivering a mail in ballot in-person to an election official who can verify the outside envelope is marked correctly. Early in-person voting is generally a better option than absentee voting or vote-by-mail. Recommended are the following three guidelines for early in-person voting: Provide fair and good access to an early voting site starting at least 10 but no more than 16 days before Election Day and continuing through Election Day. Open on at least two Saturdays or weekends Allow early voters with identification the opportunity to update their registration or register for the first time when casting their ballot- as is done in North Carolina. Absentee Voting or Vote-by-Mail Vote-by-Mail is growing, but so is the list of potential problems as made strikingly evident most recently when the state of Minnesota had to recount 2.7 million ballots in its 2008 uS Senate race. In spite of its numerous problems, vote-by-mail has long been an essential component of early voting, especially for those living in rural areas, unable to leave their domicile or preferring a mail ballot like those who enjoy weighing choices on lengthy ballot measures at home. Recommended are the following: Provide voters the option of a mail in ballot without an excuse. (Allow the voter to determine need.) Help voters avoid simple mistakes completing absentee ballots by, for example, allowing voters to turn in mail-in ballots in person. Monitor outside parties involved in collecting or helping voters complete mail-in ballots.
PROBleMS WITh VOTING BY MAIl
excerpted from No Vote by Mail Project
Not a secret ballot Less secure as when private companies are contracted to sort ballots Can be more costly than poll based system. Too many mistakes made by voters signing and dating envelopes, etc. Vote suppression, buying or stuffing become far easier Ballots get lost or misplaced by post offices, counties, and voters themselves. Can significantly delay election results.
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Fast Facts
Felon disenfranchisement laws came after the Civil War to take away new voting rights of ex-slaves. A conviction may have meant little jail time but it did mean the loss of voting rights for years if not for life. Today these laws still disenfranchise 13% of African American men, a rate seven times the national average. Alabama disqualifies voters convicted of a felony involving moral turpitude but has yet to specify what offenses this includes.
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Fast Facts
Studies show the largest campaign donors after lawyers and lobbyists come from the securities, finance and real estate industries. health care and business service are next. large campaign donors as a whole represent less than one half of one-percent of the voting age population.
Fast Facts
Given the option, voters consistently like and prefer ranked choice voting and say that it is easy to use. Ranked choice reduces negative campaigning as candidates seek to appeal to a broader range of voters who may vote for them as a 2nd or 3rd choice.
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nonPArtiSAn reDiStrictinG Every ten years, election districts get redrawn based on the new u.S. Census. Thus begins democracy in reverse! Incumbents use sophisticated software to choose their voters by re-drawing their own district lines so as to include some voters and exclude others. The party in power inevitably seeks safe districts for their own incumbents and less opportunity for opponents. Ethnic groups, minority party voters or low voting groups like students and non-citizens are packed and cracked into districts. It can reduce political competition giving voters fewer truly contested races and less reason to turnout to vote. A FEDERAL DEMOCRACY STANDARD Since the Supreme Court decisions of the 1960s, newly drawn districts must abide by the one person, one vote principle. However, the practice of incumbent legislators choosing their voters remains. Though no nonpartisan system is perfect, the modern British model of a broad-based nonpartisan commission consulting voters, communities and legislators goes far in the right direction to end the practice of intentionally drawing safe districts by political parties and incumbents. For voter turnout, nonpartisan redistricting could help participation by bringing more competition into elections and reducing the perception that elected officials are undemocratically choosing their voters instead of being chosen by them. For democracy, it would remove partisan politics from election administration, as is done or aspired to in most democracies, including all new ones established with u.S. support, as well as help keep communities together while maintaining the standards of the Voting Rights Act and one person, one vote.
PAPer bAllot AUDit trAil The integrity of the vote can be compromised by voting technology that does not have a paper trail. The voter needs something to verify that a piece of paper reflects the choices they made. Above all, it is reasonable to ask how can we have a recount with nothing to recount? An election has little credibility with u.S. voters unless there are paper ballots to recount. This was most dramatically the case in the 2008 Minnesota uS Senate race where the ability to examine all 2.7 million ballots cast in the Senate race was crucial. A FEDERAL DEMOCRACY STANDARD A voter-verified paper audit trail is the best protection available to guarantee that an individuals vote has been both recorded and counted correctly by an electronic voting machine (such as a touch screen). Since 2004 the most progress was made on this issue. A law came close to passage in the recent Congress. 32 states have moved ahead with a law of their own that requires and guarantees such a paper trail for their own citizens and another nine states use paper ballots anyway. Paper ballots are also used in the uK, Canada, India and other comparable democracies. For voter turnout, removing any interference with the integrity of the voting system serves to create greater voter confidence and thereby greater willingness to participate in our electoral system overall. For democracy, creating a paper trail helps to ensure that a technical mistake- either by error or design- will not result in a vote being lost, upholding the democratic principle that every ballot cast is a ballot counted.
Fast Facts
Partisan districting is called gerrymandering after the notorious salamander district drawn by Massachusetts Governor Gerry in 1820 The 1965 Voting Rights Act, made illegal the practice of packing of black voters into a few districts to dilute their voting. Vote packing today is more likely to be partisan than based on race.
Fast Facts
9 states with computer voting have no mandate for a paper trail. Online postings of rejected or accepted ballots from the Minnesota Senate race were a hit online, but also critical to the perception of a fair recount.
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Voter iD The passage of the 2002 Help America Vote Act (HAVA) created a federal standard voter ID requirement of either a photo ID or paper document like a bank statement or utility bill. However, it let states expand on this requirement. Due to the cost and difficulty in both obtaining and updating government photo IDs, these requirements can discriminate against senior, low-income and young voters, all of whom are less likely to have up-to-date IDs. Ostensibly the reason for voter ID laws is to prevent voter fraud; however individual voter fraud has been shown to be virtually nonexistent, and placing an unnecessary emphasis on it serves to detract from the very real roadblocks that thousands of Americans face every Election Day when casting a ballot. A FEDERAL DEMOCRACY STANDARD A photo ID requirement for voting cannot work unless these IDs are freely available to all voters and easy to update. It can not be a poll tax where required IDs cost money. ID is a broader civic issue affecting employment, travel and societal access with many issues to resolve. One of the best features of the 2002 Help America Vote Act was its reasonable ID standard. It works fine today in 44 states. Minor adjustments as part of a large bi-partisan election reform package would be reasonable within that standard. For voter turnout, removing ID as a barrier to voting will help ensure that no voter is prevented from casting a ballot on Election Day due solely to the preventative difficulties of obtaining a valid ID. For democracy, ensuring equal access to the polls by removing unnecessary voter hurdles helps create the free and fair elections necessary to a true representative democracy.
NATIONAL POPuLAR VOTE Every four years CNN and the media reboot their electoral maps and color between the lines - red or blue. Campaigns poll and target the 10 -15 battleground states most likely to decide the election. A few bigger states like Ohio or Florida emerge as the super battleground states, absorbing half of campaign ads, mobilization expenditures and candidate visits. Meanwhile, over 100 million American voters watch from the sidelines, except to call or visit voters in other states. The Electoral College was born to hold together a fledgling republic, a compromise between a divided north and south akin to counting non-voting black slaves as three-fifths of a person to boost the representation and electoral votes of slaveholder states. A FEDERAL DEMOCRACY STANDARD A bill in Congress would abolish the Electoral College in favor of a national popular vote by Constitutional Amendment. Another way to enact a national popular vote for president (without formally amending the Constitution) is known as the National Popular Vote Plan. States sign into law an agreement that they will give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner for the country at large. Once a majority of states have passed this law, the Plan will go into effect and the national popular vote will determine the winner of every presidential election that follows. Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and Hawaii have signed on, and many more states are considering the bill. For democracy the national popular vote ends a compromise made for slaveholder states and instills the principle of one person, one vote to the election for president. For turnout, it brings the campaign and mobilization to voters in every state.
Fast Facts
One-fifth are 18-24 yrs olds Over one-third are seniors Over 70% are women.
Fast Facts
The States were divided into different interests not by their difference of size, but by other circumstance principally from (the effects of) having or not having slaves. James Madison, Records of the Federal Convention, 1787 The electoral College has deemed a candidate President the winner even though in one of four presidential elections that candidate has failed to gain the support of the majority of voters.
In 2008, The Supreme Court, in a divided ruling, failed to overturn Indianas photo ID restrictions. The case has drawn national attention to the partisan intent of these ID laws and potential to discriminate. A group of nuns were turned away in the 2008 election for lack of photo ID in Indiana
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SoUrceS PAGeS 4 AND 5 GeNeRAl TURNOUT PRIMARY SOURCeS United States election Project, elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout Institute for Democracy and electoral Assistance (IDeA), www.idea.int/vt/survey/voter_turnout_pop2.cfm PAges 6 ANd 7 TuRNOuT gROwTh PRIMARy sOuRCes U.S. election Project PAGeS 8 AND 9 BATTleGROUND STATeS PRIMARY SOURCeS CNN Politics.com, election Tracker, www.cnn.com/eleCTION/2008/map FairVOTe, 2008s Shrinking Battleground, www.fairvote.org PAGe 10 eleCTION DAY ReGISTRATION 2008, PRIMARY SOURCeS U.S. election Project PAGe 11 eARlY VOTING 2008, PRIMARY SOURCeS U.S. election Project The early Voting Information Center, www.earlyvoting.net Democracy Corps, The 2008 early Vote, www.democracycorps.com McDonald, Michael P., The Return of the Voter: Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential election, The Forum, www.bepress.com/forum electionline.org, The 2008 election in Review, www.pewcenteronthestates.org PAGe 12 YOUTh VOTe, PRIMARY SOURCeS CIRCle, www.civicyouth.org National election Pool exit Poll by edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, www.cnn.com/ eleCTION/2008/results/polls/ #USP00p1 PAge 13 BLACk ANd LATINO VOTe, PRIMARy sOuRCes Pew hispanic Center, http://pewhispanic.org U.S. Census Bureau Voting and Registration, www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting 2008 National election Pool exit Poll by edison Media Research and Mitofsky International PAGeS 14-19 eleCTION ReFORM Universal Registration, Demos www.demos.org, Brennan Center for Justice, www.brennancenter.org early Voting, early Voting Information Center, U.S. election Project Restoring Voting Rights to ex-Offenders, Brennan Center for Justice, Sentencing Project, www.sentencingproject.org Small Donor Public Campaign Finance, Opensecrets.org, Campaign Finance Institute, www. Voter ID, Project Vote, projectvote.org, Voting Access for All, NP Action, npaction.org OTheR SOURCeS Daniel P. Tokaji, Voter Registration and Institutional Reform, harvard law and Policy Review Online (2009) electionline.org Briefing, election 2008 in Review, The Pew Center on the States (2008)
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Selected PublicationS
adviSory board Diana Aviv, independent sector Harriet Barlow, HkH Foundation Gary Bass, omB Watch Jeffrey Berry, Tufts University kafi Blumenfield, liberty Hill Foundation John Bridgeland, Civic Enterprises, llC Tim Delaney, National Council of Nonprofits
ToolkiTs A Nonprofits Guide to Voter Registration A Nonprofits Guide to Hosting a Candidate Forum Nonprofits, Voting and Elections
kari Dunn saratovsky, The Case Foundation Pablo Eisenberg, Georgetown Public Policy institute kathay Feng, California Common Cause Cynthia m. Gibson, Cynthesis Consulting Deborah Goldberg, Brennan Center for Justice Peter Goldberg, Alliance for Children and Families Hon. Joan Growe, Former secretary of state, minnesota Hon. Amo Houghton, Former member of Congress Alexander keyssar, Harvard kennedy school of Government kim klein, klein & Roth Consulting
FACT sHEETs A Nonprofits Voter Participation Checklist 8 Easy Things Your Nonprofit Can Do to Help Your Community Vote A Nonprofits Guide to Giving Rides to the Polls
kelly leRoux, University of kansas Peter levine, CiRClE at Tufts Universitys Tisch College of Citizenship Daniella levine, Human services Coalition miami Dade Dr. michael mcDonald, U.s. Election Project at George mason University michael mcGrath, National Civic league linda Nguyen, Alliance for Children and Families Frank omowale satterwhite, National Community Development institute Norman ornstein, American Enterprise institute lawrence ottinger, Center for lobbying in the Public interest Jon Pratt, minnesota Council of Nonprofits
AmERiCA GoEs To THE Polls sERiEs 2008 Primaries 2006 General Election
For more nonpartisan voter engagement resources from NVEN, visit nonprofitVoTE.org and click on Vote Resources
miles Rapoport, Demos Gibran X Rivera, interaction institute for social Change mark Rosenman, Union institute Nancy Tate, league of Women Voters liz Towne, Alliance for Justice Tracy Westen, Center for Governmental studies
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NONPROFIT VOTER ENGAGEMENT NETWORK c /o Minnesota Council of Nonprofits 2314 University Avenue West, Suite 20 Saint Paul, Minnesota 55114