Thayer Vietnam-US Relations - Two Cancellations in A Month

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam-US Relations: Two
Cancellations in a Month?
July 27, 2022*
According to a State Department source earlier this month, the USS Ronald Reagan
would become the third US aircraft carrier to visit Vietnam. The visit was scheduled
for the latter half of this month. Vietnamese sources, however, reported that the
scheduled visit to Danang has been canceled due to concerns about a possible Chinese
attack on Taiwan.
Q1. What are your comments about the cancellation of the visit by the USS Ronald
Reagan? What do you think might have led to the cancellation? Who is the most likely
decision-making side?
ANSWER: It is my assessment that Vietnam took the initiative to cancel the scheduled
visit of the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier because of rising tension in the South
China Sea. From the very beginning, when the United States first proposed visits by
nuclear powered aircraft carriers, Vietnam rejected annual visits out of concern this
might send the wrong signal to China that Vietnam was tilting towards the U.S.
Vietnam’s policy has been to welcome a U.S. Navy presence in the South China Sea as
long as it contributed to regional peace and security. At the present time, given China’s
strong verbal condemnation of the U.S. as the cause of regional insecurity, China’s
conduct of short-notice military exercises, and likely Chinese diplomatic pressure on
Hanoi, Vietnam decided to opt out and cancel the visit.
Q2. A visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Vietnam was also planned in
July around the time Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was scheduled to visit.
Blinken's visit was also cancelled. What do you make of the cancellation of visits to
Vietnam by the USS Ronald Reagan and Secretary Blinken? What factors do you think
influenced it?
ANSWER: When I first heard that Secretary Blinken’s visit had been cancelled, I
contacted my network of Vietnam-based sources as well as current and retired U.S.
officials. I quickly learned that the visit had been postponed. However, there were a
variety of conflicting views on what caused this. The most plausible explanation from
a reliable source was that the postponement had nothing to do with Vietnam but
arose from scheduling issues in the White House related to President Biden. Secretary
Blinken visited Thailand instead.
The most recent senior U.S. official to visit Hanoi was Deputy Secretary Wendy
Sherman who met with Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son and other officials on 13
2
June. According to a read out issued by the Department of State, her visit went well.
She discussed the US-Vietnam comprehensive partnership, praised Prime Minister
Pham Minh Chinh’s successful visit to the United States to attend the US-ASEAN
Special Summit, welcomed Vietnam’s participation at the launch of the Biden
Administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and pledged continuing efforts
to address war legacy issues. In sum, bilateral relations appear to be on a good track
and no issue at that time stands out that would have caused the cancellation of
Secretary Biden’s visit. This was a very low-key affair. One Vietnamese diplomat said
privately that no visit by Blinken was [officially] scheduled.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Hanoi from 5-6 July. His visit was
announced on 4 July on the same day that I heard Secretary Blinken’s visit was
postponed. A check of the State Department’s Public Schedule does not reveal any
announcement that Secretary Blinken would visit Vietnam at this time. On 5 July, the
Public Schedule showed that Secretary Blinken would visit Indonesia and Thailand
from 6-11 July. Blinken visited Bangkok from 9-10 July. Both Lavrov and Blinken
attended the G20 ministerial meeting in Jakarta so I don’t think Lavrov’s stopover in
Hanoi was the reason for Blinken to postpone his visit.
*On July 29, the Department of State announced that Secretary of State Antony J.
Blinken will travel to Cambodia (August 3-5), and the Philippines (August 6).
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam-US Relations: Two Cancellations in a

Month?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 27, 2022. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam-US Relations: Two Cancellations in a

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