CDS Primer
CDS Primer
CDS Primer
Presented by: Teaching Session 92 SOA Annual Meeting Orlando, Florida October 28, 2003
Kevin Reimer, FSA, CFA ING Institutional Markets Greg Henke, FSA, CFA Citigroup Michael J. Hambro, FSA, MAAA AON Consulting
- Actively traded and liquid - No direct loss has to occur in order for protection buyer to be paid
Uses ISDA documentation and ISDA Master Agreements with counterparties
Percentages are estimates of 2004 market share (Source: British Bankers Association)
Contingent Payment is made in case of a credit event on the reference credit, which is defined as one of the following:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Failure to pay Bankruptcy Obligation Default Obligation Acceleration (no longer common) Repudiation/Moratorium (followed by restructure/failure to pay) Material adverse restructuring of debt (4 options can be removed, or replaced by a narrower definition, in exchange for a lower premium)
- September 16th, 2003 quote: 66/67 - Bid/Ask quote usually for USD 5-10mm for 5-year - Firm A pays a premium of 67 bps per annum until maturity (or a credit event) - Premium can be paid semi-annually, quarterly, upfront, etc. based on market
convention
Physical Settlement
Defaulted Security
- Net buyers to get regulatory capital relief - Manage exposures on loan portfolio - Maintain client relationships
Initial transactions primarily based on sovereign credits
- 2001 supplements clarified restructuring and convertibles - 2003 re-write incorporated supplements and new restructuring definitions
Subsequent improvements to definitions of default events furthered the convergence trend between the cash and synthetic markets
Volume ($bln)
Year
Market Players
Protection Buyers
Banks Brokers Hedge Funds Other 52% 21% 12% 15%
Protection Sellers
Banks Insurers Brokers Other 39% 33% 15% 13%
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- Large, early buyer of credit protection to hedge their loan portfolios - Initially, often motivated by regulatory arbitrage - Desire to hedge could be due to size of exposure to a single credit, industry
or geographic region.
- Often MTM through earnings; last year saw positive impact on earnings,
this year negative impact
- Now common to buy and sell protection to diversify, but maintain aggregate
credit exposure amounts.
Reinsurance Companies
- Significant early seller of credit protection for income - Reinsurers were looking for new risks to diversify their exposures that can
be analyzed using an actuarial approach
- Reinsurers are used to taking risks on the liability side of their balance sheet - CDS improved their ability to write Financial Guarantees and take
unfunded credit risk
Assets: $1Bn Surplus: $60 MM Asset Duration: 6 yrs. Net Duration: 0 yrs. DV01 Rate: $0 DV01 Spread: $0.6 MM Net Asset Yield: L+110 Liability Cost: L+30 After-tax ROE: 11% GAAP: BV
Notional: $1Bn Equity Investment: $60 MM Asset Duration: 0 yrs Net Duration: 0 yrs. DV01 Rate: $0.0 DV01 Spread: $0.6 MM Net Asset Yield: 110 bps Liability Cost: 20 bps After-tax ROE: 12% GAAP: MTM (133)
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- Similar to buying a corporate bond and issuing a GIC - Implied LIBOR flat funding versus issuers actual cost-of-funds Liquidity Diversifies exposure to names - May allow for higher quality names not available in the funded market due
to RoE constraints
More flexibility in creating exposures based on view - Pick attachment point and subordination - Single tranche CDOs - First/last to default Potential positive basis Can be negotiated and tailored for specific needs Allows increased capacity to names in cash market
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Counterparty Risk
- Unless unwind with same counterparty, doubles counterparty exposure
Accounting issues
- FAS 133, IAS 39, mark-to-market, income fluctuations
Regulatory issues
- Replication, linking with funded assets
Capital and tax issues Need for liquidity (cash) in case of credit event Systems constraints Headline Risk
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During this topic we will - Identify the global regulatory participants and their roles - Describe U.S. regulation for credit derivatives - Discuss key developments - Describe the regulatory environment for U.S life insurers
Global Regulation
Central Banks - Each countrys Central Bank controls the activities of its market participants - Permitted activities - Risk management policies and controls - Minimum capital requirements - Remedial actions Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Based in Switzerland is majority owned by Central Banks around the world - Provides Central Banks with a range of financial services and promotes
cooperation among Banks
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Basel Committee on Banking Supervision - Committee under BIS - Developed Basel Capital Accord I in 1988 - Developing Basel Capital Accord II - Expected to be completed by year-end 2003 - Implementation targeted for year-end 2006
International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) - Global trade organization for privately negotiated derivatives - Developed ISDA Master Agreement for derivative contracts - Standardized definitions of credit events, contract terms, and documentation
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U.S Regulation
Regulation of U.S Banking Organizations - Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System (FED) - Office of Comptroller of Currency (OCC) - Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) - Office of Thrift Supervision - Interagency Capital Requirements Accounting - FASB, including FAS 133 Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities
Disputes over terms of contract and definitions - ISDA continually working to update standardize definitions and documentation - Buyer of credit protection wants the most liberal definition of default and the most liberal definition of securities deliverable to protection seller upon default - Seller of credit protection wants restrictive definitions of default and deliverable securities
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Capital requirements critical in pricing and availability of credit derivatives Basel I Capital Accord - Published in 1988 - Requires at least 8% ratio of capital to risk-weighted surplus - Risk weights depend on whether borrowers are sovereign, banks, or corporate
Contd.
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Risks defined too broadly and can lead to capital arbitrage - All corporate debt has a 100% weighting - Bank A can buy credit protection from Bank B - Counterparty exposure to Bank B will have a weighting of 20% - In order to optimize capital utilization, Bank A can purchase CDS on its better corporate credits and retain exposure to riskier (and presumably higher yielding) credits.
- More granular risk differentiation - Maintains minimum 8% capital to risk-weighted assets - Flat 8% capital ratio in Basel I can effectively vary from 1.6% to 12%,
depending on borrower credit evaluation
- Uses both standardized approach and internal rating based approach to risk
evaluation
- Includes supervisory review process and market discipline - Initially, the goal is too require the same amount of aggregate capital - Implementation targeted for 2006
U.S intends to adopt Basel II for large banks ($250 billion) and for internationally active banks
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Accounting Developments
For U.S GAAP credit derivatives fall under the scope of FAS 133, Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities
- Carried on balance sheet at fair value with changes in fair value going
through income statement
- Hedge accounting permitted in certain circumstances - Fair value or cash flow hedge - Must demonstrate hedge effectiveness - Some assets, such as credit linked notes, are not derivatives. However, in
this case FAS 133 requires the credit derivative that is part of the credit linked be split out from the host contract and treated separately as a derivative
- FAS 133 interpretation of Mod-Co contracts as containing credit derivatives - FAS 133 can and has caused earnings volatility
International Accounting Developments
- EU banks feel that this will create undue earning volatility and are
indicating reluctance to adopt this standard, despite previous EU indication of adopting IAS in 2005. Financial guarantees vs. credit derivatives
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- One of the problems that have faced life insurers for many years is the lack
of uniform state insurance laws, including investments laws.
Specific limitations for derivative activities - Hedging - Aggregate statement value of options, caps, and floors may not exceed,
say, 7.5% of admitted assets
- Aggregate statement value of options, caps, and floors written may not
exceed, say 3% of admitted assets
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Income generation
- Limitations apply to statement value of fixed income assets subject to call or put. Limitation commonly 10% of admitted assets - A key limitation is that income generation only applies to covered calls or puts
Asset replication
- Based on limitations for authorized asset type being replicated
- Purpose of each derivative transaction - Risk measurement and management policies and procedures - Governance - Documentation - Infrastructure and systems controls
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Statutory Accounting
- SSAP 86 allows fair value hedges and cash flow hedges - Hedge effectiveness must be regularly demonstrated - Insurer can hedge specific components of risk, such as credit risk
Income generation - Strict limitations apply - Can only be used in covered situations in which an asset owned by the insurer hedges the derivative risk - Derivative premium treated as deferred liability - Carrying valued depends on accounting for covering asset
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NAIC RBC Formula does not explicitly address modern uses of credit derivatives For example, assume an insurer purchases a CDS on Company A (on which the insurer holds a bond) from Bank B. Ideally, the insurer would substitute the credit quality of Bank B for the credit quality of Company A in determining its RBC. This assumes that the terms of the CDS afford appropriately afford protection on the bond However, the NAIC formula does not appear to provide this treatment. Need for convergence of economic capital and RBC
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- Also, (B) the present value of $1per year credit default swap periodic fees (premium) is calculated. - The credit swap premium is the spread that equates (A) and (B).
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Note that the credit default swap premium is close to the actual bond yield spread. If the credit default swap premium is materially higher than the yield spread, the investor would short the corporate bond, sell the credit default swap, and buy the Treasury bond. Conversely, if the credit default swap spread is materially lower than the bond yield spread, the investor would buy the bond, buy the credit default swap, and short the Treasury bond.
There are situations in which the CDS spread calculated in the model differs somewhat from the bond yield spread - The Treasury curve is very steep - The bond is trading at a deep discount or premium - Recovery rates are assumed to be well above 50% - Liquidity
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For many CDS applications more than one reference entity will be used. Also, the value of the payoff from the CDS may depend on the distribution of defaults on a pool of, say N, reference bonds. The model we previously discussed can be extended to price a CDS based on a the distribution of default losses for N reference bonds, by constructing correlations of credit indices between each pair of reference bonds.
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CDS Spread in bp* Counterparty Rating AA A AAA Cred index Corr 0 194.3 194.3 194.3 0.4 187.4 185.2 181.3 0.8 177.1 170.5 156.8 5-Year Swap: Recovery Rate: 30% Reference Entity is BBB *Source: Hull and White (2001)
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Automotive Manufacturers Vehicle Parts Transportation Aerospace/Defense Banks Securities Finance Insurance (Life) Insurance (P&C) General Industrials Chemicals Paper/Forest Products Electric/Other Utilities Oil & Gas Gaming/Lodging/Leisure Info/Data/Elec. Technology Cable/Media & Publishing Telecommunications Retail Stores (Food & Drug) Retail Stores (Other) Tobacco Consumer Products Buildings/Construction REIT Health Care Pharmaceuticals
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 1.00 2 0.97 1.00 3 0.82 0.89 1.00 4 0.97 0.96 0.81 1.00 5 0.76 0.84 0.97 0.73 1.00 6 0.76 0.82 0.93 0.68 0.97 1.00 7 0.81 0.87 0.96 0.76 0.97 0.97 8 0.84 0.75 0.57 0.76 0.56 0.59 9 0.63 0.71 0.93 0.58 0.94 0.91 10 0.59 0.68 0.92 0.55 0.96 0.94 11 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.93 0.84 0.83 12 0.76 0.82 0.93 0.72 0.92 0.91 13 0.43 0.53 0.83 0.37 0.89 0.89 14 0.57 0.68 0.92 0.57 0.92 0.87 15 0.75 0.82 0.87 0.71 0.89 0.89 16 0.57 0.65 0.89 0.50 0.94 0.94 17 0.64 0.70 0.89 0.57 0.94 0.95 18 0.38 0.44 0.76 0.30 0.82 0.83 19 0.65 0.63 0.50 0.63 0.57 0.59 20 0.64 0.71 0.89 0.59 0.94 0.94 21 -0.37 -0.48 -0.69 -0.37 -0.78 -0.76 22 0.86 0.76 0.52 0.85 0.37 0.37 23 0.65 0.75 0.93 0.60 0.96 0.94 24 0.41 0.50 0.80 0.35 0.86 0.86 25 -0.22 -0.13 0.21 -0.15 0.18 0.14 26 0.23 0.34 0.71 0.18 0.77 0.76
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1.00 0.63 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.93 0.84 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.79 0.60 0.94 -0.74 0.46 0.95 0.83 0.13 0.71
1.00 0.42 0.37 0.77 0.59 0.25 0.30 0.66 0.42 0.52 0.28 0.83 0.56 -0.35 0.78 0.42 0.25 -0.23 0.03
1.00 0.96 0.76 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.87 0.96 0.94 0.87 0.37 0.92 -0.72 0.26 0.98 0.93 0.31 0.86
1.00 0.72 0.88 0.97 0.95 0.82 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.39 0.93 -0.79 0.18 0.97 0.95 0.31 0.91
1.00 0.86 0.57 0.71 0.83 0.72 0.77 0.53 0.61 0.77 -0.52 0.76 0.78 0.57 -0.06 0.40
1.00 0.83 0.88 0.95 0.89 0.90 0.73 0.55 0.92 -0.66 0.44 0.93 0.85 0.24 0.69
1.00 0.93 0.75 0.96 0.91 0.95 0.30 0.90 -0.79 0.01 0.93 0.97 0.42 0.96
1.00 0.79 0.93 0.88 0.85 0.30 0.88 -0.77 0.20 0.94 0.90 0.35 0.87
1.00 0.85 0.87 0.65 0.69 0.91 -0.69 0.41 0.88 0.77 0.13 0.60
1.00 0.98 0.94 0.46 0.97 -0.84 0.15 0.97 0.96 0.33 0.90
1.00 0.91 0.55 0.98 -0.83 0.22 0.96 0.92 0.23 0.82
1.00 0.92 1.00 0.25 0.50 1.00 0.84 0.94 0.54 1.00
Correlation is defined as linear correlation between weekly changes of sector default swap spread indices over a 3-month trailing period
Improvements: ISDA/Restructuring
Hard defaults (Enron, WorldCom) have proven viability of settlement mechanisms and functionality of the market
Soft defaults have forced tighter documentation; the definition of Restructuring has been retooled and acceleration has been dropped as a credit event
Restrictions have been placed on the allowable maturity of bonds that can be delivered to protection sellers as the result of a credit event
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Improvements: Liquidity
There are now over 500 investment grade names that trade in the CDS market Names are always available, no need to find a willing seller that owns the bonds Higher quality names often trade in 5 basis point bid/ask markets Broad indices are often quoted in 2 basis point bid/ask markets, e.g., 76/78 bps
Improvements: STCDOs
Many dealers now offer Single Tranche CDOs (STCDOs) STCDOs allow investors to select a custom portfolio of credits, and to go long or short exposure to any tranche of the portfolio Investors do not have to wait until other tranches of the CDO are sold Investors can substitute underlying credits and even go long or short credits within the structure
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Closing Thoughts
It took until 2001 for the first managed synthetic CDO to be executed Today, you could transact a customized, managed, single tranche CDO that would allow you to go long and short credits within the structure Most insurance company asset portfolios have been built based on the new issue calendar Credit Default Derivatives, and there many extensions have a great deal of applicability for Insurance Companies that are able to analyze and manage credit risk.
Questions?
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