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    Section2 Simulation

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    Hager gobran
    The document describes a simulation of a newsboy's daily profits over a 10 day period where he buys 80 newspapers each day. There are three types of demand days - poor, typical, and good - based on random numbers. The simulation calculates the daily profit, minimum profit of $50, and maximum profit of $800. The average daily profit over the 10 days was $650.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Section2 Simulation

    Uploaded by

    Hager gobran
    26 views7 pages
    The document describes a simulation of a newsboy's daily profits over a 10 day period where he buys 80 newspapers each day. There are three types of demand days - poor, typical, and good - based on random numbers. The simulation calculates the daily profit, minimum profit of $50, and maximum profit of $800. The average daily profit over the 10 days was $650.

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    The document describes a simulation of a newsboy's daily profits over a 10 day period where he buys 80 newspapers each day. There are three types of demand days - poor, typical, and good - based on random numbers. The simulation calculates the daily profit, minimum profit of $50, and maximum profit of $800. The average daily profit over the 10 days was $650.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    26 views7 pages

    Section2 Simulation

    Uploaded by

    Hager gobran
    The document describes a simulation of a newsboy's daily profits over a 10 day period where he buys 80 newspapers each day. There are three types of demand days - poor, typical, and good - based on random numbers. The simulation calculates the daily profit, minimum profit of $50, and maximum profit of $800. The average daily profit over the 10 days was $650.

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    You are on page 1of 7

    El-Shorouk Academy Acad.

    Year :

    Higher Institute for Computer & Term : First

    Information Technology Year : 3rd

    Department of Computer sciences

    Instructor : Dr.farouk shaaban

    Computer modeling & simulation

    ➔ Example No 3 :
    ➢ A news boy buys paper for 15 P.T. each and sells them for 25 P.T. each unsold
    papers have no value in analyzing past sells it is found that three demand
    distribution exist, depending on news events in the papers. A good
    interesting news day yield to many potential customer, typical and poor days
    yield to less interest. Historically 20% of days have been “poor”, 50%
    “typical”, 30% “good”, The demand distributions are summarized :

    Types of new days

    Demand Poor Typical Good


    40 0.05
    50 0.2 0.03
    60 0.41 0.07
    70 0.26 0.28
    80 0.08 0.3 0.02
    90 0.25 0.15
    100 0.07 0.28
    110 0.24
    120 0.12
    130 0.09
    140 0.06
    150 0.04

    ➢ Simulate 10 days period and determine main daily profit, max profit, min
    profit if he decides to buy 80 papers each day. Use the following R.N :-
    09 65 69 66 57 64 84 24 92 22 49 50 61 01 45 48 48 45 52
    35
    ?? Implement c# program to simulate this problem ??

    Page 1 of 4
    ➢

    Types of new days

    Demand Poor 00 --> 19 Typical 20 --> 69 Good 70 --> 99


    40 0.05 00 --> 04
    50 0.2 05 --> 24 0.03 00 --> 02
    60 0.41 25 --> 65 0.07 03 --> 09
    70 0.26 66 --> 91 0.28 10 --> 37
    80 0.08 92 --> 99 0.3 38 --> 67 0.02 00 --> 01
    90 0.25 68 --> 92 0.15 02 --> 16
    100 0.07 93 --> 99 0.28 17 --> 44
    110 0.24 45 --> 68
    120 0.12 69 --> 80
    130 0.09 81 --> 89
    140 0.06 90 --> 95
    150 0.04 96 --> 99

    - Note : We have two digit random numbers that means that range of numbers 00 →99
    - Poor take numbers from 00 → 19
    - Typical take numbers from 20 → 69
    - Good take numbers from 70 → 99
    ➔ 80 paper each day → Max buy 80 paper per day
    ➔ Note: we take 2 Random number first one to determine the type of new day , The
    second one to determine demand “ how much he sell in that day “.

    1st Day :
    RN =09 → Poor
    RN= 65 → demand = 60
    Profit = 60*25 – 80*15 = 300 P.T

    2nd Day :
    RN= 69 → Typical
    RN = 66 →demand = 80

    Page 2 of 4
    Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T

    3rd Day :
    RN = 57 → Typical
    RN = 64 → demand = 80
    Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T

    4th Day :
    RN= 84 → Good
    RN =24 → demand = 100 = 80 → because max of buy is 80 paper each day
    Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T ; we calculate with demand 80 NOT 100.

    5th Day :
    RN= 92 → Good
    RN = 22→ demand = 100 = 80 → because max of buy is 80 paper each day
    Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T ; we calculate with demand 80 NOT 100.

    6th Day :
    RN= 49 → Typical
    RN =50 → demand = 80
    Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T

    7th Day :
    RN= 61 → Typical
    RN= 01 → demand = 50
    Profit = 50*25 – 80*15 = 50 P.T

    8th Day :
    RN = 45 → Typical
    RN= 48 → demand = 80
    Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T

    9th Day :
    RN = 48 → Typical
    RN= 45 → demand = 80
    Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T

    10th Day :
    RN= 52 → Typical
    RN= 35 → demand = 70
    Profit = 70*25 – 80*15 = 550 P.T

    Page 3 of 4
    • MIN profit we found it in 7th day which is 50 P.T
    • MAX profit is 800 P.T
    • Main daily profit
    300+800+800+800+800+800+50+800+800+550/10=650 PT

    Page 4 of 4
    El-Shorouk Academy

    Higher Institute for Computer & Term : First

    Information Technology Year : 3rd

    Department of Computer sciences

    Instructor : Dr.farouk shaaban

    Traffic lights

    ➢ Use the one-digit Random Number (6, 3, 5, 0, 8) to


    generate random observations for:

    a) The color of a traffic found by a randomly arriving car


    when it is green 50% of the time, yellow 10% of the time,
    and red 40% of the time.

    ?? Implement c# program to simulate this problem ??

    Page 1 of 3
    Answer

    It is given that :-

    The theoretical probability of :

    Green 50% = 0.5

    Yellow 10% = 0.1

    Red 40% =0.4

    Random numbers that are one-digit are from 0 -------> 9 [ten integer numbers].

    • Then let the random numbers that indicate to green are five numbers (50%)
    ,say : 0-1-2-3-4
    • the random number that indicate to yellow is one number which is: 5
    • , and the random numbers that indicate to red are the remaining four numbers
    which are: 6-7-8-9

    G -----> 0, 1, 2, 3,4 0.5

    Y -----> 5 0.1

    R -----> 6, 7, 8, 9 0.4

    Then:-

    (6, 3, 5, 0, 8 ) -------Random observations---------> (R, G, Y, G, R )

    Error = Theoretical Probability - Simulated Probability * 100


    Theoretical Probability

    Simulated Probability = no. of repeating / no. of trials.

    Page 2 of 3
    Simulated probability of Green = 2/5 = 0.4
    Simulated probability of Red = 2/5 = 0.4
    Simulated probability of yellow = 1/5 = 0.2

    Error of Green = 0.5 – 0.4 * 100 = 20 %


    0.5

    Error of Yellow = 0.1 – 0.2 * 100 = 100 %


    0.1

    Error of Red = 0.4 – 0.4 * 100 = 0 %


    0.4

    Conclusion :-

    • Error of Green is 20% which means that the simulated probability of RED
    decreased by 20 % because the theoretical probability = 0.5 then after compute
    simulated probability it become = 0.4 then it decreased ( 0.5 → 0.4 ) , means also the
    simulated probability is less than the theoretical probability.

    • Error of YELLOW is 100% which means that the simulated probability of RED
    increased by 100 % because the theoretical probability = 0.1 then after compute
    simulated probability it become = 0.2 then it increased ( 0.1 → 0.2 ) , means also the
    simulated probability is greater than the theoretical probability.

    • Error of Red is 0% which means that the simulated probability is EQUAL to


    the theoretical probability.

    Page 3 of 3

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