STATISTICS 101

Course
Description

This is a course covering basic rules of

probability, discrete and continuous
probability distributions, and introduction
to inferential statistics.

LEARNING OUTCOME: At the end of the course, the students will be able to apply appropriate
statistical concepts, methodologies and technologies in organizing, analyzing and interpreting
various real-world situations and in coming up with relevant decisions.
 On completion of this course, the student is expected to present the following learning outcomes
in line with the Expected Lasallian Graduate Attributes (ELGA).
• apply appropriate statistical concepts,
• methodologies and technologies in organizing,
• analyzing and interpreting various real-world situations and in coming up with relevant decisions.

Requirements
 3 Quizzes
 Computer laboratory activities, Seatwork, Exercises, Homework, Recitation, Portfolio
 Culminating Task (Final Examination or Project)
 Class Activities
Week Date Module Topic Week Date Module Topic
1 Tuesday, March 22, 20220. REVIEW OF BASIC STAT Qualitative vs. Quantitatiove Elements of a Statistical Test of Hypothesis
Scales of Measures: One-Tailed and Two-Tailed Tests and P-
Nominal/Ordinal/Interval/ Ratio Value
Thursday, March 24, 2022 9 Tuesday, May 17, 2022VII. HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Measures of Location Steps in Testing Hypotheses
Measures of Dispersion Tests Concerning One Mean
Rules of Probability
2 Tuesday, March 29, 2022I. REVIEW OF PROBABILITY
Theorems of Probability Tests Concerning the Difference Between
Thursday, March 31, 2022II - Probability Distributions Random Variables Two Means
Types of Probability Distributions Tests Concerning a Proportion
Thursday, May 19, 2022
Mean of a Discrete Random Variable Tests Concerning the Difference Between
3 Tuesday, April 5, 2022
Variance of a Discrete Random Variable Two Proportions
Properties of the Mean and Variance
Uniform Distribution Tests Concerning the Variance
III - Discrete Probability Bernoulli and Binomial Distributions 10 Tuesday, May 24, 2022 Tests Concerning the Ratio of Two
Thursday, April 7, 2022
Distributions Hypergeometric Distribution Variances
Thursday, May 26, 2022Review of Inferential Statistics
Negative Binomial and Geometric 11 Tuesday, May 31, 2022Quiz 2
4 Tuesday, April 12, 2022 Distributions Test of Homogeneity of More Than Two
Poisson Distribution Thursday, June 2, 2022VIII. CHI-SQUARE TESTS Proportions
Thursday, April 14, 2022HOLY THURSDAY Test for Independence
Uniform Distribution 12 Tuesday, June 7, 2022 Goodness-of-Fit Test
IV - Continuous Probability
5 Tuesday, April 19, 2022 Normal Distribution Assumptions of the Analysis of Variance
Distributions
Areas under the Normal Curve Thursday, June 9, 2022IX - ANOVA Test on the Equality of Several Variances
Thursday, April 21, 2022Review Exercises Problem Solving One-Way Analysis of Variance
6 Tuesday, April 26, 2022QUIZ 1 Post Hoc Analysis: Tukey-Kramer Test
13 Tuesday, June 14, 2022
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean Two-Way Analysis of Variance**
V - Sampling and Sampling
Thursday, April 28, 2022 Mean and Variance of the Sampling Thursday, June 16, 2022 Application using software
Distributions
Distribution Correlation Analysis
Central Limit Theorem Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient
7 Tuesday, May 3, 2022
Application of Central Limit Theorem Test of Significance of r
X - Regression and
Types of Estimates 14 Tuesday, June 21, 2022 Regression Analysis
Correlation
VI. ESTIMATION OF Estimating the Mean Simple Linear Regression Model
Thursday, May 5, 2022
PARAMETERS Estimating the Difference Between Two Coefficient of Determination
Means** Test of Significance of β1
Estimating a Proportion Thursday, June 23, 2022 Application using software
8 Tuesday, May 10, 2022 Estimating the Difference Between Two 15 Tuesday, June 28, 2022Review for Quiz 3
Proportions** Thursday, June 30, 2022Quiz 3
Estimating the Variance FINALS - Presentation of
16 Tuesday, July 5, 2022
Thursday, May 12, 2022 Estimating the Ratio of Two Variances** Projects
Sample Size Determination Thursday, July 7, 2022
 Class Resources
REFERENCES:

● Albert. (2007). Basics Statistics for the Tertiary level. Manila: Rex Publishing Company.
● Arcilla, R., Co, F., Ocampo, S. and Tresvalles, R. (2019). Statistical Literacy for Lifelong Learning (2nd edition).
Manila: ABIVA Publishing House, Inc.
● Downie and Heath. (1984). Basic Statistical Methods (5th Edition). Manila: National Bookstore.
● Hayter, A. (2002). Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists (2nd edition). CA: Duxbury.
● Levine, Berenson and Stephan. (2002). Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel (3rd edition). Upper Saddle
River, NJ: Prentice Hall
● Mann. (2011). Introductory Statistics (7th edition). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
● Mendenhall, Beaver and Beaver. (2009). Introduction to Probability and Statistics (13th edition). Belmont, CA:
Thomson/Brooke/Cole.
● Walpole, Myers, Myers and Ye. (2011). Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists (9th edition).
Singapore: Pearson Education (Asia).

ONLINE RESOURCES:
http://www.census.gov.ph/
http://www/mathgoodies.com Software for STT101A: You may use Microsoft Excel, PhStat, Statistica. Please
http://www.ruf.rice.edu~lane/statsim/samplingdist/ introduce Statistica to your class especially in the inferential statistics modules.
http://www/statsoft.com Professors and students may download Statistica from ITS website:
http://www.shodor.org https://helpdesk.dlsu.edu.ph/guides/software/statistica-installation-guide.asp
 Class Policies

1. Cancellation of any quiz is not allowed.

2. As a general policy, no special or make-up tests for missed quizzes other than the midterm and/or final examination will be given. However, a faculty member
may give special tests for
a. approved absences (where the student concerned officially represented the University at some function or activity), or
b. absences due to serious illness which require hospitalization, death in the family and other reasons which the faculty member deems meritorious.
3. If the student has no valid reason for missing a quiz (for example, the student was not prepared to take the quiz) then the student receives 0% for the missed
quiz.
4. For culminating task in the form of a final examination:
a. No part of the final examination may be considered as one quiz.
b. Students who get at least 89% in every quiz are exempted from taking the final examination. Their final grade will be based o n the average of their quizzes and
other prefinal course requirements. The final grade of exempted students who opt to take the final examination will be based on the prescrib ed computation of final grades
inclusive of a final examination. Students who missed and/or took any special/make-up test will not be eligible for exemption.
5. Learning outputs are required and not optional to pass the course.
6. Students are expected to be attentive and exhibit the behavior of a mature and responsible individual during class. They are also expected to actively
participate in class.
7. Discussions among students are encouraged for the exchange of ideas and the sharing of learnings. Student must process these learned concepts after every
discussion, and must work on individual tasks (e.g., assignments, exercises, quizzes) independently.
8. Students are expected to always practice academic honesty. Academic misconduct, which may be penalized to the full extent allowed by the DLSU Student
Handbook 2018-2021 Section 5.3.1.1 (as amended), includes but are not limited to using third-party websites or forbidden resources during an exam, having another
person take an online exam or do an assignment, communicating with someone to obtain answers during an exam, taking someone e lse’s work and submitting it as their
own.
9. For in-person classes:
a. Mobile phones and other forms of communication devices should be on silent mode or turned off during class.
b. Sleeping, bringing in food and drinks, and wearing a cap and sunglasses in class are not allowed.
c. Students who wish to go to the washroom must politely ask permission and, if given such, they should be back in class within 5 minutes. Only one student at a
time may be allowed to leave the classroom for this purpose.
d. Students who are absent from the class for more than 2.5 times the number of meetings in a week will get a final grade of 0.0 in the course.
10. For online classes:
a. Students must regularly check their CANVAS accounts for announcements and posts concerning due dates. Late submissions may be penalized.
b. Attendance in synchronous online lectures is not required. However, class participation that has been missed due to absences, if declared part of the grading
system, will affect the students’ performance evaluation.
c. Students are forbidden from downloading, making a copy of, or disseminating any course-related materials (e.g. recorded video lectures, lecture notes, power
point presentations, exams, discussions) without the consent of the faculty and other concerned parties.
MODULE 1

Introduction to Probability
Introduction
People use the term probability many times each day.
○ For example, physician says that a patient has a 50-50 chance of surviving a certain operation.
Another physician may say that she is 95% certain that a patient has a particular disease
○ Chance of rain
○ Chance that there will be a policeman when you beat the red light
Definition
EVENT: An outcome of a statistical experiment

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT: Any activity that generates data

- flipping a coin
- tossing a die
- playing bingo
- crossing the street

SAMPLE SPACE: List of all possible outcome of an experiment (aka “Universe”

denoted by Ὠ or S

N : no of elements in the sample space

Event A – Subset of the sample space

Definition:PROBABILITY

If an event can occur in N mutually exclusive and equally likely ways, and if m of
these possess a trait, A, the probability of the occurrence of A is read as

P(A) = m/N
Experiment : Tossing a coin Experiment : Tossing a die
Sample Space: S = { H, T} Sample Space: S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6}
N=2 N=6
Event A = H Event A = outcome is 1 or 3
P(A)= 1/2 P(A)= 2/6
Definition: Compliments

Compliment of event A is the set of all elements in the sample space

not in A denote by AC

If P(A) = m/N then

P(AC) = (N-m)/N = 1-m/N
Experiment : Tossing a coin Experiment : Tossing a die
Sample Space: S = { H, T} Sample Space: S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6}
N=2 N=6
Event A = H Event A = outcome is 1 or 3
P(A)= ½ P(A)= 2/6
AC = T AC = 2,4,5,6
P(AC) = 1/2 P(AC) = 4/6
 Definition: Union / Intersection
S
A B

A∩B

S
A B
AUB (AUB)C

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

P(AUB) + P(AUB)C =1
If A and B are mutually exclusive
P(A∩B) = 0
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
Example: Probability of Male vs Female Births
Long-run relative frequency of males born in MLA is about 0.512
(512 boys born per 1000 births)

Table provides results of simulation: the proportion is far from .512 over the first few
weeks but in the long run settles down around .512.
 Relative Frequency
Assuming that an experiment can be repeated many times and assuming that there are one or more outcomes
that can result from each repetition. Then, the probability of a given outcome is the number of times that
outcome occurs divided by the total number of repetitions.

Blood Males Females Total

Group • What is the probability of male?
• Female and type O?
O 20 20 40
• Type AB blood?
A 17 18 35
B 8 7 15
AB 5 5 10
Total 50 50 100
Problem 2.

An outbreak of food poisoning occurs in a group

of students who attended a party

Ill Not Ill Total

Ate Barbecue 90 30 120

Did Not Eat Barbecue 20 60 80

Total 110 90 200

Marginal probabilities
Named so because they appear on the “margins” of a
probability table. It is probability of single outcome
Example: In problem 1, P(Male), P(Blood group A)
P(Male) = number of males/total
number of subjects
= 50/100
= 0.5
Conditional probabilities
It is the probability of an event on condition
that certain criteria is satisfied

Example: If a subject was selected randomly and found to be

female what is the probability that she has a blood group O
Here the total possible outcomes constitute a subset (females) of
the total number of subjects.
This probability is termed probability of O given F
P(O\F) = 20/50
= 0.40
Joint probability
It is the probability of occurrence of two or
more events together

Example: Probability of being male &

belong to blood group AB
P(M and AB) = P(M∩AB)
= 5/100
= 0.05
∩ = intersection
Properties

The probability ranges between 0 and 1

If an outcome cannot occur, its probability is 0
If an outcome is sure, it has a probability of 1
The sum of probabilities of mutually exclusive
outcomes is equal to 1
P(M) + P(F) = 1
 Rules of probability
1- Multiplication rule

Independence and multiplication rule

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

P(A) P(B\A)

P(B)

A and B are independent

P(B\A) = P(B)
 Example:
The joint probability of being male and having
blood type O
To know that two events are independent compute
the marginal and conditional probabilities of one of
them if they are equal the two events are
independent. If not equal the two events are
dependent
Blood Males Femal Total P(O) = 40/100 = 0.40
Group es
O 20 20 40 P(O\M) = 20/50 = 0.40
A 17 18 35
B 8 7 15
AB 5 5 10 Then the two events are independent
Total 50 50 100 P(O∩M) = P(O)P(M) = (40/100)(50/100)
= 0.20
 Rules of probability

1- Multiplication rule

Dependence and
the modified multiplication rule

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B\A)

Independent events

P(A) = P(A\B)

P(B) = P(B\A)

A and B are not independent

P(B\A) ≠ P(B)
Example:
The joint probability of being ill and eat barbecue

Ill Not Ill Total

P(Ill) = 110/200 = 0.55 Ate Barbecue 90 30 120
P(Ill\Eat B) = 90/120 = 0.75 Did Not Eat Barbecue 20 60 80
Total 110 90 200
Then the two events are dependent
P(Ill∩Eat B) = P(Eat B)P(Ill\Eat B)
= (120/200)(90/120)
= 0.45
 Rules of probability
2- Addition rule
A and B are mutually exclusive
The occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of
the other

Addition
Rule

P(A) P(B)

P(A OR B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

 Example:
The probability of being either blood type O or blood type A
P(OUA) = P(O) + P(A)
= (40/100)+(35/100)
= 0.75

Blood Males Femal Total

Group es
O 20 20 40
A 17 18 35
B 8 7 15
AB 5 5 10

Total 50 50 100
A and B are non mutually exclusive
(Can occur together)
Example: Male and smoker

P(A) P(B)

P(A ∩ B)

P(A OR B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

Example:

Two events are not mutually exclusive (male

gender and blood type O).
P(M OR O) = P(M)+P(O) – P(M∩O)
= 0.50 + 0.40 – 0.20
= 0.70
Excercises

1. If tuberculous meningitis had a case fatality of 20%,

(a) Find the probability that this disease would be fatal in
two randomly selected patients (the two events are
independent)
(b) If two patients are selected randomly what is the
probability that at least one of them will die?

(a) P(first die and second die) = 20%  20% = 0.04

(b) P(first die or second die)
= P(first die) + P(second die) - P(both die)
= 20% + 20% - 4%
= 36%
2. In a normally distributed population, the probability
that a subject’s blood cholesterol level will be lower
than 1 SD below the mean is 16% and the probability
of being blood cholesterol level higher than 2 SD
above the mean is 2.5%. What is the probability that a
randomly selected subject will have a blood
cholesterol level lower than 1 SD below the mean or
higher than 2 SD above the mean.

P(blood cholesterol level < 1 SD below the mean or 2

SD above the mean) = 16% + 2.5%

= 18.5%
3. In a study of the optimum dose of lignocaine required to
reduce pain on injection of an intravenous agent used
for induction of anesthesia, four dosing groups were
considered (group A received no lignocaine, while
groups B, C, and D received 0.1, 0.2, and 0.4 mg/kg,
respectively). The following table shows the patients
cross-classified by dose and pain score:
Compute the following probabilities for
Pain Group Total
a randomly selected patient:
score
1.being of group D and experiencing
no pain A B C D
2.belonging to group B or having a 0 49 73 58 62 242
pain score of 2 1 16 7 7 8 38
3.having a pain score of 3 given that 2 8 5 6 6 25
he belongs to group A 3 4 1 0 0 5
4.belonging to group C Total 77 86 71 76 310
Nightlights and Myopia
Assuming these data are representative of a larger
population, what is the approximate probability
that someone from that population who sleeps
with a nightlight in early childhood
will develop some degree of myopia?

Note: 72 + 7 = 79 of the 232 nightlight users developed some

degree of myopia. So the probability to be 79/232 = 0.34.
 Total Probability

E E’
A

A∩E
A∩E’
Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' Theorem is a way of finding a probability when we know certain other probabilities.

The formula is:

𝑃 𝐴|𝐸 𝑃 𝐸 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸)𝑃(𝐸)
𝑃 𝐸|𝐴 = =
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 𝐸 𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃 𝐴|𝐸′ 𝑃 𝐸′
Where A and E are events and P(A)≠0.
• P(E|A) is conditional probability : the probability of event E occurring given that A is
true. It is also called posterior probability of E given A
• P(A|E) is also conditional probability : the likelihood of A given a fixed E
• P(A) and P(E) are probabilities of observing A and E respectively without any given
conditions : also called marginal probabilities or prior probabilities
• A and E must be different events
EXAMPLE

In a certain region of the country it is known from past experience that the probability of selecting an adult
over 40 years of age with cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a doctor correctly diagnosing a person with
cancer as having the disease is 0.78 and the probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as
having the disease is 0.06, what is the probability that an adult over 40 years of age is diagnosed as having
cancer?
A – person over 40 has cancer P(A) = 0.05 P(A’) = 1- P(A) =0.95
B – Diagnosis is Cancer
P ( B / A ) = 0.78 P( B / A’) = 0.06

P(B) = P(A∩B) + P(A’∩B)

= P(A) P(B|A) + P(A’) P (B|A’) TOTAL PROBABILITIES
= (0.05)(0.78) + (0.95) (0.06)

What is the probability that a person diagnosed as having cancer actually has the disease?
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) (0.05)(0.78)
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = = =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴’) 𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴’) (0.05)(0.78) + (0.95) (0.06)

Bayes’ PROBABILITIES
More examples
• https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/bayes-theorem.html
Exercises in Walpole and Myers: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists 9th Ed. (pp. 42-43)
Exercises in Walpole and Myers: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists 9th Ed. (pp. 60-63)
Exercises in Walpole and Myers: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists 9th Ed. (pp. 69-72)
Exercises in Walpole and Myers: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists 9th Ed. (pp. 77-78)